Research Brief
FBGA and CSP Trends by Interposer Material Type
Abstract: The growth of fine-pitch ball grid array and chip scale package has been accelerated by
strong demand from advanced memory and radio frequency applications.
By Masao Kuniba
Recommendations
■ Semiconductor assembly and test service (SATS) providers need to provide standard
package options for advanced memory and radio frequency (RF) applications.
■ Volume production capacity for laminate fine-pitch ball grid array (FBGA) and lead
frame chip scale package (CSP) is critical to accelerate growth of the SATS market.
■ Volume purchase of interposers such as laminate substrates and lead frame at low
cost with an improving assembly yield will lead to higher profit margins for standard
high-density packages.
Publication Date:5 December 2003
2
FBGA and CSP Trends by Interposer Material Type
Introduction
As advanced memory and RF are key applications in the next-generation
device market, their packaging solutions ̅ laminate base FBGA and lead
frame base CSP ̅ are expected to grow rapidly. Growth of these markets
will accompany accelerated growth of the SATS market, together with
outsourcing demand for FBGA and CSP assembly and testing services. As
a result, packages for multifunctional mobile electronic equipment will be
standardized as a low-cost, small, general-purpose, high-density solution.
Classification of FBGA and CSP by Interposer Material Type
Gartner Dataquest updated its semiconductor package forecast in October.
Figure 1 presents an extract from the forecast, showing the updated FBGA
and CSP unit forecast by interposer (package substrate) material type.
FBGA and CSP interposer material has been classified into the following
five categories:
■
Ceramic base — FBGA
■
Laminate (rigid/build-up substrate) base — FBGA
■
Flexible (polyimide substrate) base — FBGA
■
Lead frame base — CSP
■
Wafer-level chip scale package (WL-CSP)
The lead frame base CSP category includes small leadless packages such as
quad flat nonleaded package (QFN). WL-CSP is a package that does not
require an interposer, as redistribution and encapsulation are completed in
the wafer fabrication process. This Research Brief focuses on two
packaging technologies that will become the mainstream in the future
FBGA and CSP market: laminate base FBGA and lead frame base CSP.
Their growth scenarios will be analyzed from the perspective of the trend
of the respective device/application.
2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
5 December 2003
3
Figure 1
FBGA and CSP Forecast by Interposer Material Type, Updates
Millions of Units
25,000
WL-CSP
Lead Frame Base
20,000
Flexible Base
15,000
Laminate Base
Ceramic Base
10,000
5,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
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Source: Gartner Dataquest (December 2003)
Laminate Base FBGA Trends
Laminate base FBGA is increasingly used for broad applications,
especially for application-specific integrated circuit/application-specific
standard product (ASIC/ASSP) and other logic devices. Our latest FBGA
and CSP forecast indicates that laminate FBGA will account for
approximately 30 percent of total FBGA and CSP consumption in 2003. At
present, flexible-base FBGA dominates the market, as it is accepted for
standard logic and memory devices, boasting the largest share (34 percent)
among all interposer types. Gartner Dataquest expects a rapid rise in
laminate base FBGA, which will offer advantages for logic and memory
applications that will require a multilayer interposer for higher
performance at low cost. Between 2002 and 2007, the laminate base FBGA
segment will achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.3
percent on a volume basis, reaching about 6.1 billion units in 2007. In
contrast, the flexible-base FBGA market will grow at a much slower rate of
16.8 percent during the same period, and unit demand in 2007 will be
about 3.2 billion.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
5 December 2003
4
FBGA and CSP Trends by Interposer Material Type
As for memory packaging, small-outline integrated circuit (SOIC),
including TSOP (thin small-outline package) and SO (small-outline
package), appears to account for about 70 percent of unit demand in 2003.
We expect that FBGA will be increasingly incorporated into dynamic
random-access memory (DRAM), which accounts for the highest share of
total memory shipments. At present, the DRAM market is dominated by
DDR SDRAM (double-data-rate synchronous DRAM), and its standard
package outline is TSOP. As a result, SOIC is expected to represent about
86 percent of total DRAM package units in 2003. However, FBGA will
become a standard outline for next-generation DDR II SDRAM, which will
be released in 2004. As a result, the laminate base FBGA will experience
rapid growth in 2005 and afterward, holding a central position in the
memory package market. In 2007, the share of laminate base FBGA in total
DRAM package units will rise to as much as 74 percent. The laminate base
FBGA for DDR II SDRAM allows the vendor to use SATS and outsourcing
providers on the strength of availability of the standardized outline,
thereby reducing the packaging cost significantly. It will then further
accelerate the pervasiveness of DDR II SDRAM
Lead Frame Base CSP Trends
For configuration of RF systems for cellular phones, lead frame CSP of 20
to 50 pins is used as RF packages for power amps and transceivers. In the
future, demand for lead frame CSP is expected to emerge from
multifunctional mobile electronics to meet requirements for high
performance, miniaturization and low cost, coupled with the replacement
of peripheral lead frame-type package including conventional quad flat
package (QFP). As demand is expected to grow rapidly, the unit-based
CAGR from 2002 through 2007 will reach 54.6 percent. Gartner Dataquest
forecasts that unit demand for the lead frame CSP will be about 9.9 billion
in 2007.
The basic outline of the lead frame CSP is shown in Figure 2.
2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
5 December 2003
5
Figure 2
Lead Frame CSP Outline
Lead Frame CSP (Side Cross Section)
Wire Bonding
(Lead Frame)
Die
Down Bonding
(Die Pad)
Lead Frame
Exposed Die Pad
Lead Frame CSP (Bottom)
Matrix Type Lead Frame
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Source: Gartner Dataquest (December 2003)
Unlike QFP, the leadless package structure allows the designer to
minimize the footprint for mounting on the printed wiring board (PWB),
merely taking up a space almost equal to the chip size. It also allows the
improvement of electrical performance by exposing the die pad at the
bottom of the package for better heat dissipation and by down-bonding to
the die pad. Furthermore, the use of a matrix lead frame creates a variety
of package designs suitable for batch encapsulation or testing, which is
followed by singulation to make the lead frame CSP a compact, generalpurpose, high-density package optimized for volume production in a
simplified process and with an increase in the batch size. On the other
hand, the package structure is becoming a major battlefield among
integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) and some SATS providers, which
have secured their own patents, around which they try to establish a de
facto standard. The RF module and its peripheral RF-based system are
critical for the multifunctional mobile electronic equipment market, and
they are essential applications for transmission of voice, information
(packet), and video (animated picture). Therefore, any company that
succeeds in establishing its lead frame CSP design as the de facto standard
will be able to establish dominance in the emerging markets. In fact,
companies are boosting or planning to boost production capacity in the
hope of developing their lead frame CSP to a high-value-added core
segment.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
5 December 2003
6
FBGA and CSP Trends by Interposer Material Type
Gartner Dataquest Perspective
The laminate FBGA and the lead frame CSP, which are expected to enjoy a
strong surge in demand, will hold a 72 percent combined share by volume
of the total FBGA and CSP market in 2007. For SATS providers, major
challenges are to establish a standard for general-purpose, compact, highdensity packages in the two application markets (advanced memory and
RF) and to win a dominant share in the assembly/testing and outsourcing
market for their high-value-added packages. Furthermore, the ability to
supply packaging technology for multifunctional mobile electronics will
lead to the reinforcement of alliances with IDMs and expansion of the
SATS business to new domains, such as a system solution integrating
advanced memory and logic (for example, system in a package). In
addition, SATS providers may expect a higher value-added service to
supply RF modules. To achieve these goals, they must establish volume
production capacity for standardized packages for advanced memory and
RF applications first. And this will make volume purchase of interposers
such as laminate substrates and lead frames at low cost with a higher
profit margin with an improved assembly yield.
Key Issue
What are the emerging business opportunities as the semiconductor industry matures?
This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes:
SEMC-WW-DP-0356
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