Mike Daly
Executive Vice President, Exploration
Global trends influencing
exploration
Seismic vessel in the Ceduna Basin, Australia
Global trends influencing exploration
Future resource trends
• Deepwater: capturing the remaining resource
• Arctic: unexplored rock volumes of the ice-bound offshore
• ‘Re-exploration’ of onshore (and shallow-water) basins:
− Frontiers, deepening, tight reservoirs in old giants, shale ‘sweet spots’
Future challenges and technology trends
• Striving for the perfect seismic image
• Management of pressures in excess of 20k psi(1)
• Ice management, spill response, community and environmental impact
• Transformation of flow rates from unconventionals
(1) Thousand pounds per square inch
Global discovered resource and yet-to-find
Conventional discovered: 4.5 tnboe
5
1948: Ghawar
176 bnboe
Tnboe
4
3
1979: Troll
10 bnboe
1971: North Field
193 bnboe
2004: Yoloten
1992: Qatar Arch 67 bnboe
103 bnboe
Deepwater
1936-40: Supergiants in
Venezuela, Iran, Kuwait
1927: Kirkuk
26 bnboe
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
Onshore
Shelf
Conventional yet-to-find:
~ 1 tnboe
2
1
Arctic
sub-ice
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Onshore North America
Middle East (On/Offshore)
Onshore Latin America
Onshore C.I.S.
Onshore Africa
Onshore RoW
Shelf (ex Middle East)
Arctic
Deepwater
2010
Source: IHS, EIA and CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers) for onshore North America data
Material new plays of the past decade – all deepwater
Material new plays
characterised by:
• Deeper reservoirs in
existing provinces
• The outer margins
(‘medial and distal
fans’) of deltas
East Mediterranean
pre-Messinian
9
5.5
GoM
Palaeogene
Angola
Congo Fan
9
Industry deepwater
discovered volumes (bnboe)
Source: IHS EDIN
East India gas
50
South Atlantic
pre-salt
3
22
East Africa gas
Technology unlocking Mad Dog, Gulf of Mexico
Application of seismic
technology
Discovery map and seismic data quality
1998
• Industry-first WATS(1) survey,
contributing to a doubling of
resource at Mad Dog through
its appraisal programme
• WATS has since become the
industry standard, contributing
to Palaeogene success
Current map and seismic data quality
2011
• Now being applied beyond the
Gulf of Mexico
OWC
(1)
Wide Azimuth Towed Streamer
Project 20K™
• Major technology project to
progress 20k psi(1) resources
• Collaborating with
contractors, vendors,
regulators and universities
• Key system defined by end
2013
• Front End Engineering Design
begins in 2014
(1) Thousand pounds per square inch
Arctic yet-to-find
1
74
Alaska:
Beaufort
North Slope
Chukchi
0.1
127
20
10
South Kara
5
3
17
Yet-to-find
volume
(bnboe)
7
Northeast Greenland
31
Source: United States Geological Survey, 2008
7
62
Russian Barents
Challenges for activity in the Arctic
Considerations for sustained industry activity
• Commercial
• Technological
• Operational safety
• Regulatory
• Ecological
• Cultural/socio-economical
• Reputational
• Security
Image courtesy of Per Frejvall, Arctic Marine Solutions
Lomonosov Ridge, 2004
‘Re-exploration’ of the onshore
The remaining unexplored rock volumes onshore
• Frontier basins with challenging access (e.g. Congo).
• ‘Re-exploring old basins’
− Deepening: ‘exploring upwards’ from source rocks to existing shallow pay
− Tight reservoirs: in and around existing oil and gas giants
− Shales: achieving economic flow rates from the world’s great source rocks
BP Lozier Canyon #1
Austin Formation
Eagle Ford Formation
Buda Formation
BP tight gas
and shale
positions
Challenges for onshore activity
Considerations for hydraulic fracturing onshore
• Management of water and other fluids
• Seismic activity
• Air quality and GHG emissions
• Community impact
• Land and sensitive ecologies
Durango facility, Colorado, USA
Risks presented by future industry activity
• Deepwater
− Managing pressures in excess of 20k psi(1)
• Arctic
− Ice management
− Spill response
− Communities
− Reputation
• Onshore
− Management of water and fluids
− Communities
− Industry footprint in sensitive ecologies
(1) Thousand pounds per square inch
Wamsutter, Wyoming, USA