Disaster Mitigation Strategies Team members Bill Read Lixion Avila Jose Rubiera Andrew Burton Dale Destin USA USA Cuba Australia Antigua
ITWC VI key mitigation recommendations • WMO assist developing countries in hazard assessment, risk mapping, and TC exercise design and execution. • Add Disaster Mitigation/social science track for IWTC VII • Regional workshops on Total (effective) Warning System • Several training recommendations with related material for mitigation
Mitigation Definitions • To moderate in force, alleviate. • Regards to risk – efforts taken to reduce the probability or consequences of a threat.
Weather Modification
Will not be considered in this talk
Questions • How many of you know what wind speed your house is designed to resist? • How many know what their flood risk is (e.g. 1/500)? • How many of you have a family disaster plan?
Denial 6
Is not just a River in Africa! • Rare events – low probability of occurrence but high probability of severe impact • Denial ­ a natural human response to above • If unprepared for the threat – REactive rather than PROactive response by the public (Rita evacuation in Houston) 7
Assumption ‐Coastal Population
Growth – Lack of Hurricane
Experience
Assumption 2
Fatalities trending down due to warnings and successful evacuation Damage planning trending up­ urban growth near the coast Societal issues impacting
mitigation
• Underestimation of risk
• High risk land use ~75% U.S. petrochem
industry in surge zone
• Inadequate building code
• Population/infrastructure growth increases
lead time for evacuation decisions –
trumping the increased accuracy in track
forecast.
Lesson not learned:
The 100 Year Event does not mean absolute protection
10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year
500
1 yr 10% 4% 2% 1%
.2%
10 65 34 18 10 20 88 56 33 18 30 96 71 45 26
50 99 87 64 39
6
Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates, 6/10/01 pm
Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates, 6/10/01 pm Storm Surge – ““ we will be back
we will be back ”” But should we???
Rebuild – always more expensive One week after Ike June 2010 20’ 12’
15 Mitigation Strategy – Land use policy • Choose higher return frequency for lower limit of development (500 yr vs 100yr) • Build critical facilities outside evacuation areas (e.g. hospitals, nursing homes, prisons) • Design in evacuation strategy
Building Code
““ All wooden houses above one 1. ““ Catastrophic failure of one
Catastrophic failure of one ­ to two
to two ­ 1. 1. “All wooden houses above one 1. “Catastrophic failure of one­ to two­ story in height, were either beaten story in height, were either beaten story wood
­­ frame buildings was story wood story wood­frame buildings was down or shattered.
” down or shattered. down or shattered.” observed.
” observed. observed.” 2. The wood
The wood ­­ frame gable ends of 2. ““ “The wood­frame gable ends of roof structures were found to be roof structures were found to be especially failure prone.
” especially failure prone. especially failure prone.” 2. Many gable ends of houses were 2. ““ “Many gable ends of houses were blown out.
” blown out. blown out.” 3. Roof cladding damage 3. ““ “Roof cladding damage throughout the areas was throughout the areas was pervasive.
” pervasive. pervasive.” 3. All tiled and slated houses, 3. ““ “All tiled and slated houses, without exception, were more or without exception, were more or less stripped of their coverings.
” less stripped of their coverings. less stripped of their coverings.” 4. Breaching of the building 4. ““ “Breaching of the building envelope (led to)
…
envelope (led to) … blowouts envelope (led to)…blowouts of
…
of … walls and roofs.
walls and roofs. ” of…walls and roofs.” 4. When the front was stripped, the 4. ““ “When the front was stripped, the wind blowing under the roof, wind blowing under the roof, burst the back part out
…” burst the back part out burst the back part out…” 1992 FEMA Report on Hurricane 1992 FEMA Report on Hurricane Andrew Andrew South Carolina Gazette report on South Carolina Gazette report on 1752 Charles
­­ Town hurricane 1752 Charles 1752 Charles­Town hurricane (Ramsay 1809) (Ramsay 1809) Institute for Building and Home Safety
Research Facility
Mitigation Strategy – better building code • World wide housing stock not built to withstand likely winds from TC • Engineering design for wind readily available • Building materials/techniques allow for inexpensive solution to wind resistance • Need community leadership to embrace 19
Mitigation Strategy education ­ preparedness • Ourselves! • Decision makers • Emergency managers/civil defence • Public/media
Hurricane Preparedness
The battle is
won outside
the hurricane
season!
Our partners
Suggested recommendations • Advocate better land use policy • Advocate TC resistant building code • Consider joint workshops on mitigation with EM community • Develop mitigation resource guide for member nation meteorologists