EU-wide business survey in the financial
service sector
Fourth Joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and
Consumer Opinion Surveys
Brussels, 12th October 2009
Context & Objectives
Extension of business surveys to the financial service
sector
•
Importance of financial services sector for the development of the
overall economy
•
EU-wide monthly survey among managers
•
10 European countries covered
Main Objectives
•
Provide useful information enabling to evaluate the development
of the value-added and expectations of operators
•
Pilot phase: period of evaluation, between April 2006 and March
2007
•
Main Phase: April 2007 – March 2011
Survey Design & Methodology
Key Methodological Components
A robust and homogeneous methodology across countries



Guarantee representative results for the euro area and the EU as a whole
Repeat the survey in the same way each month
Obtain sufficient samples of completed interviews  detailed analysis

Ensure comparability of results over time
Population

Senior managers in sectors 65, 66 ,67 (NACE)

Countries: DE, ES, FR, LUX, IT, NL, UK, PL, HU and CZ
Sampling



Recruitment of a panel of respondents: (initial panel, approx. 2,400 people)
Telephone recruitment
Source: business directory, updated regularly  good approximation of the
Universe

Objective: 300-600 completed interviews each month during the whole year
Questionnaire Content
Standard questionnaire

Repeated every month

Topics: overall business situation, demand for services and
employment
Quarterly questions

Asked in April, July, October, November

Topics: operating income/expenses, profitability, capital
expenditure, fees charged for the services and competitive
position
Scale questions : increase / remain unchanged / decrease
Questionnaire translated into national languages
Respondent can choose the language of the
questionnaire
Survey process
CATI-Web technology
STEP 1
Panel: telephone recruitment
STEP 2
E-mail invitation + link to online
questionnaire
STEP 3
STEP 4
Reminder
Questionnaire completion
Sample sizes and response rate
A response rate of 24% on average (min: 17% and max: 29%) is
encouraging and in line with expectations
700
618
600
537
506
500
496
486
473
448
444
478
444
413
400
372
400
400
400
400
359
310
300
200
100
April 2008 - September 2009
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
0
Non-response
Reasons
 From the moment of the recruitment
and the actual invitation, people may
have change their minds
 Some people may not have time to
access the questionnaire during the
fieldwork period
 Concerns about confidentiality
and publication of the results
Measures
Letter signed by DG ECFIN explaining
the scope of the survey
 Regular contacts by phone or e-mail,
in order to:
Some people were sent in advance the
questionnaire in Word format, in order
to:
 In some cases, invitation e-mails are
blocked by the company’s firewall
 Reassure them about the content of
questions
 Operators not motivated to respond
to several waves
 Get agreement of their hierarchy
 Crisis:
 Increasing mobility of operators
 Reluctance to give out
information about company
Prospect of having access to the
survey results
 Ask referral to panellist who wants to
drop off
Results: monthly questions
Overall business situation
TOTAL
Q1 - How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? It has ...
52
46
33
46
24
22
22
22
17
45
47
45
47
47
41
35
34
28
20
28
20
18
18
12
10
7
23
18
12
11
8
2
-1
-15
-17
-19
-25
Remained unchanged
Deteriorated
-6
Jun-09
-29
-18
May-09
Mar-09
-32
Apr-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
-13
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
-2
Improved
26
19
17
15
16
29
26 27
22
20
53
4444
40
37
35
33
32
27
24
47
51
50
48
-3
Sep-09
53
51
Aug-09
54
Jul-09
54
Demand for the company’s services
TOTAL
Q2 - How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 3 months? It has ...
55
55
51
45
44
44
38
44
40
37
35
31
26 25
28
26
29
19
21
13
15 20
18
51
43
41
34
31
33
25 24
28
28
21
20
18
24 25
40
36
27
1117
51
46
45
23
19
55
51
16
15
18
10
17
15
5
Remained unchanged
-25
Decreased
Jul-09
-11
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
-19
-12
-16
-25
Increased
Mar-09
Feb-09
-14
Jan-09
-13
Dec-08
-1
Nov-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Oct-08
2
1
1
Sep-09
51
Aug-09
53
50
Expectations in terms of demand for
company’s services
TOTAL
Q3 - How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 3 months?
It will ...
49
49
48
50
48
45
39
59
55
50
49
47
39
36
36
26
15
10
28
28
25
22
21
13
36
34
33
31 30
22
21
18
39
36
31
21
13
57
53
48
31
58
57
55
19
15
22
27
29
27
24
15
11
17
14
16
3730
24
12
15
17
14
7
11
7
1
-19
Increase
Remain unchanged
Decrease
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
-4
Mar-09
Feb-09
-12
Jan-09
-14
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
-3
Employment in the financial service sector
TOTAL
Q4 - How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 3 months? It has ...
74
69
67
66
13
20
11
68
67
68
17 16
16 16
19
17
9 11
8
7
14
13 14
14
20
16
17
10
7
22
21
19
18
16
13
17
15
10
6
Remained unchanged
Decreased
0
-5
Jul-09
Jun-09
Apr-09
-6
-4
-3
May-09
-11
Mar-09
-3
Feb-09
-1
Jan-09
-5
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
-4
Increased
18
13
1
Apr-08
69
64
26
16
7
70
68
62
25
17
18
8
69
67
66
24
21
73
Sep-09
69
Aug-09
71
Expectations in terms of employment
TOTAL
Q5 - How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will ...
77
72
72
73
71
67
70
71
16 15
15 15
73
11
12
-5
Increase
Remain unchanged
Mar-09
-11
-5
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
-1
Jun-08
12
-1
-7
16
17
12
-7
10 13
13
3
16
5 11
1
0
-3
Decrease
Sep-09
12
19
17
Aug-09
6 11
13 14
Jul-09
9
22
19
15 16
Jun-09
11
17
7
May-08
71
May-09
18
9
12
10
Apr-08
71
69
23
12
7
69
66
26
19
22
21
14
67
70
Apr-09
68
73
Conclusions
Coherence/stability of the survey results:
 Signs of quality of the sampling design
 The questionnaire do not seem to pose any problem
of misinterpretation/misunderstanding
Sensitive indicator
Encouraging response rate in line with expectations
For the next waves: continue the close monitoring of the
fieldwork and anticipate any problem that might cause a
decrease in response rate (e.g. lower motivation of
respondents due to the participation to several survey
waves)
Thank you for your kind attention
IPSOS Belgium
Head Office: Kroonlaan 159-164
1050 Brussels – Belgium
Operation Office: Waterloo Business Park
Drève Richelle 161, bât. J
1410 Waterloo
Phone 32-2-642.47.11
Fax 32-2-648.34.08
E-mail info@ipsos.be