GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
GECAFS - A Joint Project of IGBP, IHDP & WCRP
in Collaboration with the CGIAR, FAO & WMO
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report
to the
IGBP SC Punta Arenas, Chile: January 2003
IHDP SC Bonn, Germany: March 2003
WCRP JSC Reading, UK: March 2003
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Overview
Regional research projects
Vulnerability and Scenarios science
Links to IGBP, IHDP and WCRP Core Projects and Joint Projects
Science products and other outputs
Scientific Advisory Committee
Funding update
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GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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1. Overview
GECAFS aims to:
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bring an interdisciplinary approach, spanning natural and social sciences, to GEC research on
food systems;
explicitly include research on both how food provision systems could be adapted to the
additional stresses GEC will bring, and the consequences of different adaptation strategies
for socioeconomic conditions and the environment;
bring together the agendas of GEC science and development;
form novel partnerships between the GEC research community and a broad range of other
organizations; and
build on, and add value to, the individual research agendas of IGBP, IHDP and WCRP.
GECAFS Goal:
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food
provision systems and to analyse the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptation.
GECAFS Fundamental questions and Science Themes:
1. Given changing demands for food, how will GEC additionally affect food provision and
vulnerability in different regions and among different social groups?
2. How might different societies and different categories of producers adapt their food systems
to cope with GEC against the background of changing demand?
3. What would be the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of such adaptations?
Socioeconomic
Change
Theme 1
Vulnerability and
Impacts
Global
Environmental
Change
Theme 3
Environmental
Feedbacks
Theme 2
Adaptations
Adapted
Food Provision
Food Provision
Theme 3
Socioeconomic
Feedbacks
The three GECAFS Science Themes (depicted
in black arrows) are being developed within the
important contextual issues of both changing
socioeconomic conditions and the consequences
of current food provision systems on GEC
(depicted in grey). These inter-related themes
establish a clear niche for the project, vis. a
well-defined, interdisciplinary approach
addressing the relationships between GEC and
food provision; and specifically stressing the
additional complications GEC may bring to
meeting demand, at regional scale. This is of
demonstrable interest to both science and
development agencies.
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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GECAFS has developed rapidly during 2002, particularly in regional project development for (i)
the Indo-Gangetic Plain food system and (ii) the Caribbean food system. Plans are underway
for research in Eastern Pacific Coastal Fisheries, and the Southern Africa food system.
Workshops involving regional scientists and policymakers have identified the nature of GEC
research issues that are of interest both to regional policy making and science agendas. Key steps
have been regional characterisation against which GEC research can be developed; and the clear
identification of contemporary policy issues. Links to relevant IGBP, IHDP & WCRP Core and
Joint Projects are now being strengthened.
Regional research needs to be underpinned by improved understanding on the nature of
vulnerability, especially in relation to food systems, and the comprehensive scenarios within
which research is set. Research plans in both areas are now underway, and an initial work
programme for vulnerability research is already funded.
A Scientific Advisory Committee has been inaugurated with representatives from science,
research partners, sponsoring programmes and the donor community. The SAC will meet
annually.
The GECAFS International Project Office is now well established in NERC-CEH Wallingford,
UK, and the Executive Officer (John Ingram) and Admin Assistant (Katie Dodsley) are in post.
A Science Officer is anticipated from April 2003. A Prospectus has been published, and a web
site (www.gecafs.org) developed.
2. Regional research projects
Bringing together funding from NERC, USAID, NOAA, DFID and IAI, two workshops and
some smaller consultation meetings have been held in each region. These have developed a clear
set of GEC research issues for each region (see below) but they have also underlined two
important points:
1. GECAFS offers the opportunity to develop new GEC research agendas of interest to both
science and development, and to forge new, regional and international research partnerships
to address them.
2. GECAFS must identify GEC research issues within the context of regional development
needs, and clearly demonstrate how GEC research can help address current and near-term
issues, as well as those of a longer-term nature.
Both aspects are crucial to (i) build a strong GEC science agenda of relevance to regional needs;
(ii) interact effectively with the regional policy making process and thereby encourage more
support for the regional science communities; and (iii) attract donor support from outside the
“traditional” GEC funding community.
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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2.1 Indo-Gangetic Plain
The IGP food system is both threatened by GEC and contributes to further GEC “forcing”.
In the face of GEC, policy requirements are to develop strategies that promote:
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agricultural competitiveness while limiting further environmental degradation
food provision systems which enhance the social security of the more vulnerable
rural employment opportunities thereby reducing intra-IGP labour migration and
urbanisation
Water management and diversification are both priority issues across the IGP but the GECAFS
research questions for each Science Theme need to recognise marked socioeconomic and
biophysical differences between Western and Eastern sub-regions.
The IGP Western Region is characterised by:
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high investment in infrastructure, institutions and effective policy support
intensive agriculture; high use of agrochemicals and ground-water for irrigation
high productivity and hence a food surplus region: responsible for national food security
seasonal in-migration of male labour
Theme 1: How will climate variability affect change in water demand in IGP food systems?
Theme 2: How can changes in water management (e.g. though policy instruments and/or
agronomic aspects) reduce vulnerability of rice-wheat productivity to climate variability?
Theme 3: What will be the consequences of changed water management on rural livelihoods, intraregional trade, GHG emissions and water tables?
The IGP Eastern Region is characterised by:
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high risk of both flooding and drought
poor infrastructure and limited capacity for private investment
largely subsistence agriculture
low productivity and hence a food deficit region: poverty, hunger and malnutrition
out-migration of male labour: increased involvement of women and children
Theme 1: How will climate variability affect vulnerability of resource-poor farmers to
flooding?
Theme 2: What are the market opportunities, social constraints and technical options for
diversifying crops (e.g. aquaculture) to make more effective use of flood and
groundwater?
Theme 3: How would diversification effect rural incomes, labour migration, water quality and
regional biodiversity?
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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2.2 Caribbean Food System
The food system of the Caribbean is highly dependent on imports, amounting to about US$3
billion in 1999. Revenue for these imports currently comes primarily from export earnings from
banana and sugar, and from tourism, all of which are highly vulnerable to GEC. Of particular
concern are possible changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking of tropical storms and
hurricanes; and the environmental consequences of adapting the local food system in response to
reduced export earnings.
In the short-term it is clear that changes in extreme weather events are the most important aspect
for the Caribbean region. While GECAFS research should concentrate on disruptive effects of
hurricanes and other regional extreme weather events on food systems, it should also consider
GEC impacts on land and water resources and availability; and vulnerabilities of different
sections of societies and countries. Nevertheless, better projections are also needed of
temperature trends, and also of hurricanes and severe storms; ENSO teleconnections and intraregional variability; and length and timing of growing season in relation to rainfall.
Regional policy priorities include:
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Higher levels of food self sufficiency through increased productivity and diversification of
agricultural and fisheries production.
Improved trade policies and competitiveness through greater export of high quality produce
and processed products.
Enhanced sustainability of the food and agricultural sector and poverty alleviation in rural
communities, through greater opportunities for rural employment.
Regional characterisation:
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Many small island states
Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systems
Great dependence on food imports
Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non-food sectors (e.g. minerals) to provide
revenue
Susceptibility to weather extremes
Susceptibility to changes in preferential export markets
Weak regional-level institutional connectivity
Overarching GECAFS Questions
Theme 1: How will GEC (especially land degradation, variability in rainfall distribution, sea
surface temperature, tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of food
systems in the Caribbean?
Theme 2: What combinations of policy and technical diversification in food harvested and
traded for local consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would best
provide effective adaptation strategies?
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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Theme 3: What would be the consequences of these combinations on national and regional
food provision, local livelihoods and natural resource degradation?
As the region comprises many independent states each with their own set of priorities and
conditions, research needs to look at both the local- and regional-levels. “Story lines” have been
developed for these two spatial levels:
STORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVEL
Target: Food systems in resource-poor communities based on fishing and locally-produced food crops.
Aim:
To reduce food system vulnerability, especially in relation to changes in climate variability.
Theme 1 How would changes in climate variability and water availability affect food systems of
communities on different islands?
Theme 2 How would current national and regional policy instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance
schemes, EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of technical options for
diversifying cropping systems and fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?
Theme 3 To what extent would these strategies affect food provision by altering the proportional reliance
on local vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land management and associated
changes in runoff affect coastal fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology and tourism
income based on this?
STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL LEVEL
Target: Caribbean regional food provision.
Aim:
To develop regional-level strategies to reduce the additional complications GEC would bring to
regional food provision, given changing preferential export markets.
Theme 1 What additional factors would GEC bring to destabilise the region’s food system, and in
particular what would be their impact on revenue generation from different cash commodities?
Theme 2 How could regional institutional changes best be introduced to sustain regional food provision
by maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?
Theme 3 How would changes in intra-regional trade, and in policy and technical development at a
regional level affect development in individual islands, and how could such changes be
promoted to conserve the natural resource base of the region?
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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2.3 GECAFS Eastern Pacific Coastal Fisheries Project
GECAFS and IGBP GLOBEC Focus 4 share an interest in how human populations dependent on
marine fisheries interact with GEC. GECAFS plans include a project based on the Eastern
Pacific Coastal Fisheries, and this will be developed during 2003, as a joint initiative with
GLOBEC. Other possible links could be developed with GOOS-COOP (Coastal Oceans
Observing Program) and LOICZ. A North-South GECAFS project would be desirable,
potentially involving GECAFS, GLOBEC F4, LOICZ and COOP. A initial discussion meeting is
proposed for June/July 2003 to discuss key local issues and possible collaboration. There are
currently no funds earmarked for this meeting although it is anticipated that IAI would be
interested in offering support.
2.4 Proposed Southern Africa Food Systems project
GECAFS plans include a project in Southern Africa. The food systems focus may be on
extensive rangelands + smallholder/commercial maize. An initial “Issue Identification Workshop
is proposed for 10-11 April 2003, most likely to be held near Pretoria. Informal discussions
confirm a GECAFS project would be desirable; and that, despite the current humanitarian crisis
in the region, an initial discussion meeting with SADCC and national planners in April would be
timely. The meeting would immediately precede the GECAFS 2003 Scientific Advisory
Committee meeting and all SAC members would be invited.
3 Underpinning Science: Vulnerability & Scenarios
GECAFS regional research projects will be developed within the context of two concepts which
both require a research effort in their own right: “vulnerability” and “scenarios”.
3.1 Vulnerability science
Vulnerability to GEC is an overarching concept encompassing the capacity to anticipate, cope
with, resist and recover from the additional stresses and perturbations that GEC is anticipated to
bring. Vulnerability research has to date typically been “place-based” and focused on either
environmental or social vulnerability. GECAFS will develop an approach to vulnerability studies
of particular relevance to food systems research. This will involve bringing together concepts of
existing socioeconomic and biophysical vulnerability of food systems to current environmental
and socioeconomic threats, and modifying the integrated approach to underpin research related
to GEC.
GECAFS has recently received two grants (see Section 7) to help develop the underpinning
“Vulnerability Science”. Drawing on the ICSECA grant, an initial workshop in NAS Washington
(15-16 January 2003) will:
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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Clarify definitions and disciplinary viewpoints of vulnerability science relevant to food
systems.
Design a framework for synthesising current natural and social science concepts of
vulnerability as relating to GECAFS.
The ESRC grant will be used to:
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Evaluate and refine the framework (from the NAS ICSECA workshop) in terms of suitability
for synthesising social science literature.
Use this revised framework to review methodologies for determining present vulnerability of
socio-economic systems to GEC.
Evaluate the prospects for using existing methods for assessing current vulnerability (from
Point 2) for assessing future vulnerabilities based on integrated scenarios of GEC.
Based on the framework, the review and an expert workshop, develop a research agenda for
further developing and applying methodologies aimed at integrating socioeconomic and
biophysical approaches to vulnerability. The research agenda will be further developed at a
follow-up meeting in Southern Africa (for which US-NAS ICSECA funds are anticipated).
3.2 Scenarios
GECAFS is concerned with medium to long-term prospects for food provision. Predicting the
future with any certainty over these sorts of timeframes is not possible and hence GECAFS
studies will need to be set within clearly defined, plausible sets – or “scenarios” – of future
biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. These will be specifically designed to assist analysis
of possible policy and biophysical interventions using the interdisciplinary science at the
Project’s core, and will set the context for the individual research projects. They will help to
“tease out” the meaning of “socioeconomic change” in the context of GEC. Key components
will include food systems (production, distribution, consumption); socioeconomic environment
(population, economic performance, technology, institutions and policies); and biophysical
environment (climate, resources).
GECAFS work in this area will gather momentum by the appointment (anticipated from April
2003) of a GECAFS Science Officer with principle responsibility for developing GECAFS
scenario science. This will also enable the link with MA will be strengthened and build on initial
contacts made at the MA Scenarios Workshop in April 2002. Meanwhile, a GECAFS position
paper is being prepared for the April 2003 SAC meeting.
4. Links to IGBP, IHDP & WCRP Core and Joint Projects
GECAFS planning in 2002 has concentrated on establishing the key GEC research issues for the
initial regional research projects. Workshop participants have therefore been regional scientists,
managers and policymakers; with IGBP, IHDP and WCRP Core and Joint Projects being
represented by the GECAFS Executive Committee (members of which formally represent the
three Programmes).
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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For both the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Caribbean projects the planning process has so far
identified the nature of the questions that need to be researched. The next step is to establish
methodologies and research approaches that can be developed to best address them. Working to
the specific questions identified in 2002 regional planning meetings, workshops involving IGBP,
IHDP and WCRP representatives (and other groups, e.g. CGIAR) will be held in early-mid 2003
to establish research strategies and identify relevant ongoing and immanent work within the
Programmes; and then jointly to develop research proposals.
The next workshop for the Indo-Gangetic Plain is planned for 2-4 April 2003, to be held in
Kathmandu. The Questions listed in Section 2.1 identify the key GEC issues as: direct and
indirect impacts of changing climate variability on food production systems; direct and indirect
consequences of changing food provision systems on land degradation and water resources, and
on GHG emissions; institutional and market flexibility; and policy options. Invitations are now
being sent to Chairs and Executive Officers of IGBP-iLEAPS, IGBP-LAND, IGBP/IHDPLUCC, IHDP-GECHS, IHDP-IT, IHDP-IDGEC, WCRP-CLIVAR, WCRP-GEWEX, ESSPJWP and ESSP-GCP inviting nomination of a workshop participant from each (preferably from
the region). Both USAID and DFID regional offices are also keen to participate.
The next workshop for the Caribbean is planned for 24-25 February 2003, probably in Barbados.
The Questions listed in Section 2.2 identify the key GEC issues as: direct and indirect impacts of
changing climate variability and sea-level on agricultural and fisheries production systems; direct
and indirect consequences of changing food provision systems on land degradation and water
resources, notably coastal zone ecology and productivity; national and intra-regional institutional
flexibility; and regional and global market and policy options. Invitations are now being sent to
Chairs and Executive Officers of IGBP-LOICZ, IGBP-GLOBEC, IHDP-GECHS, IHDP-IT,
IHDP-IDGEC and WCRP-CLIVAR inviting nomination of a workshop participant (again
preferably from the region if possible).
Links between GECAFS Vulnerability and Scenario science and IGBP, IHDP and WCRP,
already established in part, will be strengthened during 2003.
5. Science products and other outputs
The first major GECAFS science product is a paper “Global Environmental Change and Food
Provision: A New Role for Science” requested by ICSU for WSSD. The 16 pp paper, published
in the ICSU Series on Science for Sustainable Development, was widely distributed in
Johannesburg. Authorship included all three sponsors’ science (Gregory, Brklacich, Ingram &
Whelpdale) and with contributions from members of the FAO Inter-Departmental Working
Group on Climate Change in Relation to Agriculture and Food Security.
GECAFS was also asked by ICSU to convene a Special Session “Science for Food Security in
Africa” as part of the WSSD Science Forum. A synthesis paper (Ingram & Jaeger) is also being
published in the ICSU Series.
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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Two papers are in preparation detailing policy requirements for research in food systems in
relation to GEC – one for the Indo-Gangetic Plain, one for the Caribbean. Submission of the
former to either Global Environmental Change or Environment, Science and Policy is being
considered. Regional scientists have commented that these papers, and the resultant reinvigorated discussion with regional policy makers on the role for GEC science, are both
valuable products in their own right. The close links thus far established with key policy makers
in the regions will be maintained throughout the research phase.
A new conceptual model of food system vulnerability in relation to GEC is emerging (and will
be developed over coming months).
A 20-page Prospectus has been published and is being widely circulated. A web site has been
established and updated with general information and meeting reports, etc.
6. Scientific Advisory Committee
The GECAFS Scientific Advisory Committee was inaugurated on 24 April 2002. The SAC
provides overall guidance, in particular overseeing the development of an active science
programme; receives reports from GECAFS individual projects and integrative studies; and
prioritises activities of the science programme. It comprises nine representatives from the
strategic-partner and science communities (invited in their personal capacities); and
representatives of four different sectors of the donor community (invited in liaison capacities).
Inaugural membership includes:
Peter Gregory, University of Reading, UK (Chair)
Mike Brklacich, Carleton University, Canada (Vice-Chair)
John Ingram, NERC-Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK (Secretary)
Jim Jones, University of Florida, USA
Linda Mearns, NCAR, USA
Mahendra Shah, IIASA, Austria
Luis Vieira, EMBRAPA, Brazil
Member 8a
Member 9a
Strategic Partner Members
Barbara Huddleston, FAO representative
Anne-Marie Izac, CGIAR representative
Ray Motha, WMO representative
Donor Liaison Membersb
Oran Hesterman, WK Kellogg Foundation
Bill Sugrue, USAID
Representative from regional development banksa
Representative from research councilsa
GECAFS 2002 Progress Report to IGBP-SC, IHDP-SC & WCRP JSC 2003 Meetings
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Sponsoring Programme Representatives
Dagoberto Arcos, Fishery Research Institute, Chile (IGBP)
Mohamed Salih, Institute of Social Studies, The Netherlands (IHDP)
Doug Whelpdale, Meteorological Service of Canada (WCRP)
Maarit Thiem, IHDP Secretariat, University of Bonn, Germany (Observer)
a
Further members will be invited as GECAFS develops and needs become apparent. This will also help
with the process of rotation of SAC membership in due course.
b
Representatives from donor agencies are invited in a liaison capacity.
7. Funding update
Building on Core Support from UK-NERC for IPO costs, GECAFS has received a number a
grants during 2002 from both science and development donors:
US-NOAA/USAID for regional project development (2002)
UK-DFID for Indo-Gangetic Plain development (2002-03)
IAI for Caribbean workshop participation (2002)
US-ICSECA for vulnerability science development (2002-04)
UK-ESRC for vulnerability science development (2003)
$100k
$60k
$5k
$65k
$60k
USAID and NOAA have both indicated their willingness to consider further funding for
activities in 2003; and US-NSF have invited a proposal for $100k towards the Science Officer
post (to cover the period 2003-04).
Building on positive feed-back from the high-level Seminars held in Washington (April 2001 &
September 2002) and Oslo (November 2001) to further promote GECAFS within the funding
and policymaking community, another Seminar was held in London (October 2002), another is
planned for The Hague (early 2003) and a further will be discussed for Bonn (mid-2003).
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John Ingram
GECAFS Executive Officer
December 2002