Integrated Regional Assessment of Climate Change:
START Central and East European Workshop
Central European University Conference Center
Budapest, HUNGARY
7-12 August 1999
COMMUNICATION TO START
C. Gregory Knight
Jill Jäger
Editors
Sponsor:
START, The Global Change SysTem for Analysis Research and Training
with funds provided by:
DANIDA/Denmark
Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Secretariat of Environment and
Sustainable Development
DGIS/The Netherlands
The Netherlands Ministry for Development Cooperation, Climate, Energy
and Environmental Technology Division
Co-Sponsors:
CIRA (Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, Penn State)
International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP)
Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe
Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University
National Coordination Center for Global Change (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
CEE Workshop Communication to START
INTRODUCTION
START, The Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training, with funding from
DANIDA/Denmark (Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Secretariat of Environment and
Sustainable Development) and DGIS/The Netherlands (The Netherlands Ministry for
Development Cooperation, Climate, Energy and Environmental Technology Division),
sponsored a workshop on Integrated Regional Assessment of Climate Change in Central and
Eastern Europe. The workshop was held on 7-12 August 1999 at the Central European
University in Budapest, Hungary. The Workshop was planned and chaired by C. Gregory Knight
(Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, Pennsylvania State University--CIRA) and Jill Jäger
(International Human Dimensions Programme--IHDP), assisted by Mary Easterling (CIRA). The
Workshop agenda is included as Appendix A.
START was convinced that there is a significant body of natural and social scientific research in
central and eastern Europe already available or in progress which is directly relevant to global
climate change issues and themes. In order to highlight this research and to promote such work
in CEE countries with economies in transition, START sponsored this capacity-building
workshop. The workshop was intended to support and encourage the exchange of research
among scientists in this field from the region, as well as encourage interaction between scientists
and the policy community.
The aims of the workshop were to:
 enhance awareness and understanding of climate change;
 disseminate state-of-the-art information about the role of Integrated Regional Assessment
in development of climate change policy and research agendas;
 establish new or strengthened contacts and networks among researchers and between the
research and policy communities;
 facilitate the participants' own efforts to develop national and regional research programs
and policy activities related to climate change;
 enhance awareness of important regional impacts of global climate change; and
 formulate an action plan for future activities within and among CEE nations.
Integrated regional assessments of climate change are frameworks for combining knowledge
from a variety of disciplines to examine the impacts of climate change on the natural
environment and the consequences of these changes for human activity in a specific region. An
integrated assessment of climate change involves three essential elements:
First, policy issues at the local, national and global level that require substantive analysis must be
identified and clearly stated. The IA process should provide a range of alternatives that address
the policy issues regarding both driving forces of climate change as well as climate change
impacts, with explicit evaluation of decision criteria.
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Second, decision makers must be involved to pose research questions, evaluate scientific
evidence, and assign values to suggested alternatives and responses. Often termed stakeholders, a
wide range of decision makers should be involved, representing the different constituencies for
policy.
Third, the research community must draw upon a range of expertise and methods to address the
policy issues and interact with stakeholders.
Many of the key features of climate change involve driving forces for climate change (such as
greenhouse gas emissions), interactions across sectors, how impacts in one region may affect
other regions, effects over long time periods, responses that balance abatement of greenhouse
gases with strategies to adapt to impacts, and interactions between climate policy and other
national social and economic objectives. Each of these features of climate change requires
integrated assessments to formulate robust policies.
The Workshop brought together 28 scientists and government officials from the former centrallyplanned economies of the region who had already worked, or who were planning to work, on
issues related to global climate change (see Appendix B, list of participants). During the
workshop, participants explored integrated assessment, integrated assessment models, and
integrated regional assessment as methods for developing and presenting scientific and socialscientific analyses of climate change causes and impacts to policy makers in regional and
national settings. Participants shared initiatives from their own country, while helping to build
linkages for investigation of common issues across the region (see Appendix C, Participant
Research).
This Communication to START from the Workshop Participants includes a rationale for START
organizing a regional network for CEE and a research plan that incorporates both specific
research imperatives and ways in which the participants themselves and with START’s
assistance could further investigation of climate change and climate change impacts in the region.
RATIONALE FOR A START CEE NETWORK
Participants in the Budapest Workshop felt there were compelling reasons for START to initiate
a regional network in central and eastern Europe (CEE), not only on the issues of global climate
change but within the broad spectrum of global change programs, including IHDP. The rationale
includes the following factors:
 A common heritage of a half-century of economy and society that were centrally
controlled;
 The shared challenges of transition in political structures, market economy, and
environmental management;
 Common aspirations to participate in European political and economic systems;
 A common framework of separation of research in Academies of Sciences and teaching
in Universities;
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A pressing need for coordination and communication within and between nations to help
build new collaborations on common issues that bridge traditional boundaries between
institutions and disciplines;
The importance of providing scientific challenges and opportunities to a younger
generation of scholars;
Bringing recognition to existing and potential research related to global change in the
region;
Enhancing the contribution of CEE scholars to international global change activities and
networks;
Imperatives for integrated assessment to guide CEE decision-makers during the
transitional period and in the future;
Commonalties of environmental challenges--water, air and soil pollution from heavy
industry, soil erosion, drought, and floods are examples;
The possible experience that CEE nations will have to decide on participation in jointimplementation (JI);
A common pattern of privatization of land resources formerly controlled by the state and
resulting transitions in land cover and land use;
The importance of industrial transformations occurring in the region, including industrial
restructuring; and
The simple fact of geographical contiguity.
The Workshop participants recognized that this list is not exhaustive, yet it provides a persuasive
rationale that focused assistance from START could help in many ways (listed below).
RESEARCH THEMES
During the Workshop, participants identified research themes of particular interest to the CEE
region. These were:
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A survey of ongoing and completed research related to integrated regional assessment of
climate change in the CEE region, with a particular emphasis on human dimensions
research.
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Joint Implementation
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Water
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Regional Climate Change Scenarios
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Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change
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Environmental Issues related to CEE Transition
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
Socio-economic Aspects of Climate Change
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Policy Instruments and Measures
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Climate change and EU accession
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Case Studies Illustrating Environmental Pressure, States and Adaptation

The Role of the Private Sector in Climate Change Mitigation
A short description of these themes was prepared in small groups or by individuals and discussed
in the Workshop. A poll was taken of participants to ascertain their personal interests in these
research areas. As a result of the poll it was decided that “Case Studies” should be a tool used in
a variety of projects and not be a research area per se.
It was felt that case studies in the CEE should be carried out in order to direct attention to key
issues concerning the contribution of the region to pressures on the climate system, the
expression of global climate change through key state variables of the CEE climate, and
examples of adaptation strategies by key stakeholders. The number of case studies should be
small but representative of the diversity of issues, cultures and geography of Central-Eastern
Europe. They should be carried out by partnerships of key institutions in the region, involving
organizations outside of the CEE if necessary. Preferably, case studies should be carried out
simultaneously in at least two different countries pointing out similarities and differences across
regions and strengthening intra-regional collaboration. Case study results should be widely
publicized among key policymakers as well as the general public on the basis of a well designed
communication strategy.
The menu of case studies could include the following (linking to the research themes discussed
in more detail below):
CASE STUDIES
PRESSURES
Lifestyle change and implications for GHG emission scenarios
Monitoring industrial emissions
Preparing for EU accession and its implications for GHG emissions
Land-cover change and potential for carbon sequestration
STATES
Changes in shoreline erosion
Cumulative effects of climate pattern shift in specific regions (seasonality, maximumminimum values, averages, spatial patterns)
Human health impacts
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RESPONSES
Specific examples of joint implementation
Drought mitigation options
Local / sectoral consequences of changes in the dynamics of extreme events
It was also suggested that case studies could provide the basis for textbooks for high school and
college use.
POSSIBLE RESEARCH THEMES IN THE CEE REGION
1. Survey of CEE research on Integrated Regional Assessment of Climate Change with
particular emphasis on the human dimensions.
Participants felt that there was a need for a data base on ongoing and completed research. It was
suggested that this data base should ultimately be made available on a WWW site (perhaps
related to START or IHDP sites). Examples of existing similar data bases were given, including
the IPTRID program (International Program for Technological Research of Irrigation and
Drainage), which was started in 1994 and which created a database for ongoing and completed
research projects connected with irrigation, drainage and the environment. This data base is
updated every three months and can be downloaded via the FAO Web site.
Several steps would be required to create such a data base, including:
Data base creation using appropriate software
Staff training on data base management
Development of a query system
4 day organizing and training workshop on data base preparation and management
Updating the data base
2.
Policy instruments and measures
Of particular interest in the CEE region are policy instruments and measures related to the Kyoto
protocol. The following topics were suggested:
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Analysis of existing instruments
Proposals on change of legislation
Analysis of emission trading
Analysis of an energy (carbon) tax
Research would require surveys in CEE countries, special research, and workshops.
Particular interest was expressed in research on Joint Implementation in CEE countries. Joint
Implementation (JI) is one of the “flexible mechanisms” stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol as a
means for industrialized countries to meet their emissions reduction targets by investing in
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emission reduction projects in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This
mechanism represents both an opportunity and potential risks for CEE countries, as many of the
finer details of the mechanism have not yet been resolved. Concerns about JI include:
 whether the pilot phase Joint Implementation projects (AIJ) have achieved their
objectives of providing CEE countries with a means of realizing GHG emission reduction
projects that would not otherwise be possible;
 to what extent JI projects might “use up” the least expensive emissions reduction options
in these countries, leaving more expensive options to be handled by the CEE
governments in the long term;
 what portion of the financial costs of the project should be provided as a grant to the host
country as opposed to a loan;
 whether JI projects might reinforce regional inequities within CEE because projects are
more likely to occur in more developed countries;
 to what extent JI projects include public participation and awareness-raising.
According to the UNFCCC, CEE countries may develop national criteria according to which they
accept or reject potential JI projects. Such criteria would help insure that some of the abovementioned inequities are avoided. Due to time and budgetary constraints, CEE countries have
not drafted such criteria to date (only Poland has taken some steps in this direction).
Two projects are proposed in order to address these issues:
A. Joint Implementation Criteria
Assistance is needed in organizing a regional effort to draft JI criteria. The project could consist
of a capacity building seminar for policy makers and other stakeholders from the region. It is
proposed that participants draft national criteria which they could then have ratified in their own
country. Although each nation will have slightly different criteria, it is proposed that they use a
unified strategy in order to not merely displace inequities to countries that have not drafted
criteria.
B. Public Participation in Joint Implementation
To date, most pilot phase JI projects have included an educational component only for those
parties directly involved in the projects. Because these projects often take place in rural areas of
the country, they represent an opportunity to raise awareness about global change issues and to
invite public participation in the form of focus groups. A public participation demonstration
project is proposed to be added on to an AIJ project that is now beginning. This model could
then be adapted by other communities in the region to fit their needs.
Co-funding and cooperation in the proposed projects could be sought from the GEF (with
UNDP, UNEP and the World Bank as implementing agencies), UNDP, the Regional
Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe, the US Country Studies Program, the
USAID Climate Change and Local Government Partnership Program and the National Science
Foundation.
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3. Water and related risks
A number of topics were identified that could form the basis of collaborative research in the CEE
region:
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Research related to runoff variability across the same dimensions as climate change,
including critical evaluation of how IAMs deal with runoff variability
Water supply and global change. Strategies to get new water resources, or to adapt
consumption to the new reality
Rate of disturbance of ecosystems due to water deviations and to ecosystem rehabilitation
Water economic balance by regions and watersheds, taking into account global change
Industrial reconstruction, taking into account water shortage due to global change
Water quality under global change
How to encourage policy makers to have a vision of global change and water as their own
vision
4. Regional climate change scenarios
Many of the participants pointed to the need for climate scenarios for the CEE region. It was
suggested that a regional center for the development of such scenarios would be needed. The
kinds of research needed for the development of regional climate change scenarios include the
development of a downscaling strategy, the validation of available GCMs, and the development
of regional scenarios that are user-oriented.
It was pointed out that some of the work could be carried out through regional workshops that
could report and discuss surveys of related research and lead to a network of connections in CEE
countries (including countries not at the Budapest meeting that have important initiatives on
developing climate change scenarios). Further topics for research are:
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Downscaling using statistical approaches (it was noted that there is a need to share
experience by inter-comparison);
Development of a regional climate model for CEE
Comparative analysis of the results of GCMs for the CEE region
Exploration of participatory methods in scenario development
Development of “weather generators” to permit the use of GCM results in ecological
and agricultural productivity models
5. Vulnerability and adaptation
Research on vulnerability is quite different from impact assessment. The methods may be
similar, but addressing vulnerability requires consideration of natural and social factors not
considered in impact assessment. Vulnerability is currently addressed in the framework of
country communications. There is a risk that the data and expertise built up during vulnerability
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assessments during the Country Studies Program will be lost once the program finishes. This
suggests that efforts should be undertaken to sustain the assessment effort at an international
level, perhaps through designation of regional centers to maintain data and previous analyses.
These centers could be related to those developing regional climate change scenarios.
Vulnerability of the following sectors was felt to be of particular importance in the CEE region:
natural ecosystems, agriculture, forestry, human health, coastal zone and water resources.
Research would involve climate change modeling, elaboration of scenarios, vulnerability and
sensitivity analyses and elaboration of decision support systems.
Important results of research could include the identification of the most critical sectors by
country and the elaboration of national adaptation strategies. Research could include cropenvironment-CO2 studies (link to weather generator issue in climate section, above); forest
change mapping; studies of the interaction between environmental change and the boundaries of
protected areas; studies of the direct and indirect health impacts of global environmental change;
: modeling both the availability of water and water demand in relation to climate change; and
studies of vulnerabilities in the coastal zone.
6. Environmental issues related to CEE transition
Over the last 10 years the countries of the CEE region have undergone a dramatic transition away
from the centrally planned economy. The interactions of this transition and environmental
concerns have not been systematically documented and the implications for the future cannot be
judged without more research.
Three particular issues should be emphasized:
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Industrial transformation and the implications for water and space efficiency and
related pollution and waste generation issues;
Land use/land cover change related to property changes, institutional changes and the
apparent increased effects of extreme events;
Urbanization in transition, social and environmental problems.
These topics could be studied using a number of approaches including comparative studies of
past, present and future scenarios for specific places. Research on this topic is strongly related to
research proposed under the topic of EU Accession(see below).
7. Socio-economic aspects of Climate Change
This research topic is extremely broad but the participants identified a number of areas that are
particularly relevant for the CEE region. The proposed research is of relevance to IHDP’s Core
Project on Industrial Transformation and could produce a range of policy-relevant publications
(see table next page).
8. EU Accession
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EU accession is the dominating policy-making framework in the Central and Eastern European
countries. The development of all sectoral policy fields has been speeded up, many policy areas
have been reconstructed. This is particularly true for the sectors responsible for GHG emissions:
energy, transport and agriculture. Apart from the effect of accession on emissions, the eastward
enlargement of the EU poses questions on mitigation policies as well, both at the national level
and
Socio-economic aspects of Climate Change
Cluster
1. Socio-Economic
Assessment of
Climate Change
Topic
- Calculation of
economic impacts of
climate change.
-
Energy Economy.
-
Industrial restructuring.
Approaches
- Survey Research
- Taxonomy
- Statistics
- Comparative
analysis
- Scenario building
- Ecological
Economics
- Modeling
Expected results
- Classification of S-E
Impacts of CC
- Unification and
generalization of
National Assessment
Systems
- Create monitoring
systems
- Scenarios of longterm economic growth
- National
Technological Strategy
for Sustainable
Development
- Program of
environmental
technology applying
- Analytical report on
International transfer of
ecological technology
- Conception of energy
tax, emissions trading
implementation
- Analysis of
privatization in energy
sector
- Awareness raising in
the economic sector
2. Technological
Change for
Sustainable
Development
- Technology assessment
with respect to Climate
Change.
- Eco-industry.
- Priority directions of
technological development
- Survey Research
- Synergetics approach
- Innovation theory
- Long-Cycles theory
- Ecological
Economics
- Modeling
- Scenario building
- Comparative analysis
3. Adaptation
Economic Policy
- Using economic
instruments and measures
to reduce emissions.
- Energy sector
deregulation impacts on
GHG.
- Public goods
- Externality
- Comparative analysis
- Cost-benefit analysis
on EU level as policy instruments and measures as well as the institutions must be harmonized
on the short or medium term (e.g. liberalization of the electricity market, potential carbon tax).
All these profound changes will have serious implications for the climate issue. Moreover, the
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enlarged EU will create a ‘new’ bubble in the Kyoto process. Joint implementation is likely to be
a key issue before the accession but the cost differential of CO2 abatement will remain after the
accession as well, leading to non-domestic reduction possibilities.
For the purpose of analyzing the above mentioned questions several approaches can be used:
 energy-emission-economy models;
 comparative policy review for EU member states and the accession countries;
In addition, research is still needed to clarify the impact of EU accession on national
environmental legislation (and monitoring and enforcement).
The main result expected from this research is a series of scenarios or projections on future
emissions and policy option for mitigation in the context of European policy development and
further closer approximation. These projections can be compared with the official climate
strategies of the countries and can influence future strategy making.
The research would have results of relevance to the national level but could also create
meaningful results at the EU and CEE regional level (also with reference to the future enlarged
EU).
9. The Role of the Private Sector in Climate Change Mitigation
The private sector is one of the key entities that ultimately will be implementing measures to
mitigate climate change. Some energy companies in Russia and elsewhere are already taking
steps to reduce GHG emissions and to improve their energy efficiency. On the one hand, they
are stimulated and forced by the Government regulation to do that. On the other hand, they may
be directed by other considerations, e.g. the desire to improve their competitiveness and their
image. The private sector is the most likely consumer of energy resources. In any case, climate
benefits are a side effect. Besides, Russian and other CEE oil and gas companies wish to
integrate more completely into the international community, so they understand that they have to
play by the existing rules of the game and that good environmental (of climate) reputation is
important.
Research in this area could address the following topics:
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Improving the reliability of oil and gas pipelines to avoid gas leakage and oil spills, also to
decrease the amount of gas used for gas transportation, upgrading of compressor stations
Increasing the rate of associated gas utilization
Upgrading of refineries to improve energy efficiency, increase the yield of light products and
enhance quality of petroleum products.
Construction or wider use of mini-refineries to improve energy efficiency of the regions
Important - joint development of new oil and gas fields with foreign companies, thus
obtaining access to more environmentally-sound and energy efficient equipment and more
advanced production management practices.
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Applied research in the area of GHG carried out at R&D institutes belonging to oil and gas
companies.
Another group of companies - manufacturers producing advanced equipment to help
mitigate climate change (heat measuring and controlling devices, better insulation products,
gas-driven engines, etc.). They'll be increasing output and diversifying their product-lines
driven by demand and should be encouraged by the state. In addition, domestic production of
such commodities may help to improve situation with employment.
The third group - representatives of the sectors most affected by climate change, such as
timber and construction companies, farms, etc. Scientists may help them to understand better
possible impacts of CC and develop adaptation strategies taking into account possible social
consequences.
This research should be carried out within a broader context of economic situation in the
country and financial position of the companies, because in EEC countries investment
climate may have indirect bearing on "natural" climate, since when economic situation is
worsening, environmental and climate mitigation measures will be one of the first to suffer
the consequences.
Where START could help
During the discussions at the meeting, it became very clear that a CEE regional network for
global change research within the framework of START would be extremely beneficial. All of
the researchers felt that there is an urgent need for information exchange within the region and a
need to coordinate research initiatives in order to avoid duplication and to enhance the value of
ongoing research. A number of common issues are faced by the countries in the region,
including the economic transition and EU accession, which justify the need for research
coordination. Furthermore, participants at the workshop felt that a regional network could
encourage collaborative publications. It was suggested that it might be easier to raise finding for
research at the regional level. While there has already been some networking in the region among
the groups associated with IGBP and WCRP, there has been much less research and networking
relating to IHDP, so a regional network could correct this imbalance. Finally, participants
pointed out that a regional network could provide an opportunity to attract young scientists to
stay in or return to the region for research, counteracting the recent trends.
How START could help
Some of the ways in which a START regional network could enhance global change research in
the region are:
Establishing a technical advisory committee
Coordinating proposals
Newsletter—www and print
Web site with research results and discussion forum
Project preparatory meetings
Find funding for networking and projects
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Get people to the right place at the right time
Encourage national level coordination teams/centers and bilateral cooperation
Identify key outside strategies, methods and experts
Taking information from science to education
Internship program
Topical workshops
What could be done immediately, before START’s involvement
Invite experts who would visit on their own resources with local hosting
Proposals, such as the Open Society programs for young scholars
Begin locating sources of funds
Get global change committees started locally—take leadership
Link to EEC monitoring networks
Be ready to collaborate for ENRICH proposals Fall 1999
Immediate common interests: e.g. Canada and Russia with regard to Arctic
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