Daily and Season Peak Visitation Models and
Implications for Recreation Management:
Evidence from Two Rivers in Puerto Rico
Luis E. Santiago
University of Puerto Rico
Armando González-Cabán
USDA Forest Service
John Loomis
Colorado State University
Introduction

Public land and recreation managers concerns:
– Impact of increasing number of visitors on the natural
environment
– Impact on water quality



This research examines daily visitation
directly
related to site impact.
Factors that influence daily peak use may be
estimated with models considering aggregate data
on daily peak visitation
Explanatory variables in daily model
– may provide a forecasting tool
– Useable to limit or redistribute use to other sites.
The Study Area: The Espíritu Santo and
Mameyes Rivers Watersheds
Literature Review


Past research usually found little alteration
of water quality from second home
development, swimming, use of developed
campgrounds, or dispersed recreation use
(Cole 1989)
An increase in the number of visitors may
have a direct impact on its natural
resources, measured by soil degradation
and damage to vegetation (Hammit et al.
1998)
Literature Review


Visitors’ perception of the impact on their
hiking satisfaction is not always consistent
with the actual physical deterioration. (Deng
et al. 2003)
Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) helps
develop specific objectives for both
ecological and social concerns. Monitoring
determines whether or not objectives are
met, and management strategies are
developed for situations where objectives
have not been met (Stankey et al. 1985)
Visitor Sampling


Nineteen sampling sites
Criterion: river-roads crossing
# of sites
Potential zero
visitation sites
Espíritu Santo
11
5
Mameyes
9
3
Visitor Sampling

Sampling schedule designed to:
– Contain an even distribution among days of the
week (weekdays, weekends and holidays).
– Minimum of five sampling days per site.
– Included at least three weekend days and two
weekdays.
– At least one of the three weekend days was a
holiday weekend.
– Sampling days in proportion to total visitor use.
Sampling

Data collection:
– July 1 to August 22, 2005
– A member of each visiting group
interviewed

Visitor counts:
– Five times a day: 11 AM, 12 Noon, 1 PM,
3 PM and 5 PM
Sampling Sites:
Mameyes and
Espíritu Santo
Rivers
2004-2005
Sampling Sites
Mameyes Watershed: La Mina
Espíritu Santo Watershed: Waterfall
Mameyes Watershed: La Vega
Espíritu Santo Watershed: El Verde
Findings: In River and Outside River
Visitation at the Espíritu Santo River by
Day of the Week
Table 1. Seasonal number of visitors (%) at Espíritu Santo river.
Day of the week
Weekdays
Weekends
Holidays
Total
56
13
31
Percent of visitors’ recreating
In the river
Outside the river
19
68
63
81
32
37
Findings: In River and Outside River
Visitation to Rio Mameyes by Day of the
Week
Table 1. Seasonal number of visitors (%) at Mameyes river.
Day of the week
Total
Weekdays
Weekends
Holidays
52
18
30
Percent of visitors’ recreating
In the river
Outside the river
44
53
64
56
47
36
Results: Daily Model
Variable
Coefficient
C
-135.6662
Travel Cost
1.0515
Waterfall Y1
-54.2404
Parking Spots
0.3123
Holiday
124.3379
Crowding
16.7895
Time in river
0.1885
Enjoyment Level
7.1279
Elevation
0.1643
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
38.3555
1.2169
21.4306
0.1104
9.5951
5.1364
0.1051
4.3626
0.0681
-3.5371
0.8641
-2.5310
2.8294
2.5365
3.2688
1.7932
1.6339
2.4133
0.0009
0.3919
0.0147
0.0068
0.0145
0.0020
0.0792
0.1088
0.0197
Management and Policy
Implications

The daily model can help estimate peak
visitation levels considering
– physical characteristics
– type of days variables like holiday periods

The parking spots
– constitute a management control variable
Management and Policy
Implications

In these two Caribbean National Forest
streams
– Large number of other visitors in the streams act
as an attractant rather than a repellant
– The social norm resulting in concentrating of
use, rather than spreading, does not appear to
result in adverse water quality effects. (Hein
2007; Scatena and Marcial 2006)
Management and Policy
Implications

The visitation level data gathered
– may provide Commonwealth and municipal
agencies evidence to obtain and assign
resources for site maintenance
– as well as general maintenance of these sites,
which are mainly used by their residents.

Visitors’ use at these sites need not be limited
– even with concentrated use water quality does
not appear to be adversely affected during
normal flows.