Statistics for policy use
Seminar on Developing a programme for the
implementation of the
2008 SNA and supporting statistics
Kampala, Uganda
9 December 2013
United Nations Statistics Division
Outline of Presentation
 Introduction
 System of National Accounts
 Economic indicators approach to macroeconomic
analysis
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Macroeconomic framework
To establish an enabling macroeconomic policy
framework for equitable and sustainable development
Requires a clear understanding of the underlying
factors that drive national income growth, including:
• growth in capital accumulation,
• changes in employment rate,
• labour and capital productivity,
• changes in the terms of trade and
• linkages between macroeconomic policies and
industrial and sectoral policies.
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The need to be informed
 This gives rise to the need, not only to
monitor progress but also to evaluate
whether or not goals are being achieved.
 To obtain this overview of the economic
processes data need to be organised in a
framework that integrates and reconciles the
data.
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The need to be informed
 Requires data of sufficient scope, detail and
timeliness to analyse:
• the external and internal economic and financial
vulnerabilities,
• the interconnectedness of the global production and
the global financial system;
• the causes of changes in economic growth and
employment patterns; and
• to inform about the trade-offs between fiscal, monetary
and debt reform and initiatives to increase growth,
employment and equity.
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System of National Accounts
 SNA describes a coherent, consistent and
integrated set of macroeconomic accounts that
provides an overview of economic processes,
recording how:
• production is distributed among consumers,
businesses, government and foreign nations.
• income originating in production, modified by taxes
and transfers, flows to these groups and
• they allocate these flows to consumption, saving and
investment.
• The latest version of the SNA is the 2008 SNA
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/SNA2008.pdf
System of National Accounts
 The SNA embodies basic distinctions as
required by economic theory such as:
• production (supply) and use (demand) with prices
• factors of production such as labour, capital,
technology
• transactions such as income, consumption,
investment, exports, imports, transfers, financial
assets and liabilities ..
• balance sheets with positions of assets and
liabilities
• (institutional) sectors such as household sector,
corporate sector, monetary sector, government
sector, external sector
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System of National Accounts
 The national accounts support macroeconomic
and sectoral policies including those related to
•
•
•
•
employment,
inflation,
international trade, and finance
growth and productivity of the economy
 Consequently, the national accounts provide an
overarching framework for macroeconomic
statistics to facilitate economic analysis and
policy formulation
SNA and Intermediate Accounts for
Policy Analysis
ECONOMIC
THEORY
SYSTEM OF
NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
ECONOMIC
ISSUES
Policies and
perspectives
Concepts and
definitions
Indicators
Accounts
Basic data and statistics
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Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 A set of national accounts data is generally too large
and conceptually too complex for users to handle in
analysis.
 Users require that the data set be summarized into a
smaller set of indicators that could be used to assess
economic conditions and development of a country.
 Indicator analysis – generally indicator ratios are used.
 The reason for using ratios between data rather than
the data themselves is that data generally provide little
information, unless they are related to other data.
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Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
Example:
 GDP figure becomes only meaningful
• if its growth over time is analysed, a per capita figure
is derived that makes it possible to compare the data
between countries, or a
• percentage breakdown by expenditures or activities
is presented.
 Similarly, data about the level of imports are not very
informative unless
• they are related to exports or
• to domestic output, or
• a breakdown by products is shown.
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Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 Aggregates, such as GDP and GDP per capita, are
widely used as summary indicators of economic
activity and welfare.
 While useful in their own right, they are not the most
suitable measures of people’s material conditions.
 The GDP as the single most important measure of
economic performance and social progress does not
reflect ordinary people’s perceptions of their economic
conditions.
 The GDP also don’t reflect the link between
environmental sustainability and economy
performance.
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Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 National accounts provides valuable information on
household material conditions at the macro level,
such as:
•
•
•
•
measures of household disposable income;
social transfers in kind;
consumption expenditure;
investment; and assets and liabilities.
Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 By combining these macro level aggregates with
micro sources (surveys, administrative records, and
censuses), it would be possible to derive measures
across household groups of their
• distribution of income,
• consumption and
• wealth
Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 Indicator ratios are roughly grouped by types that
describe economic conditions and development of the
economy and/or policies aimed at influencing
developments
 First - describe the total economy and its relations with
the ROW
• aggregates per capita and per worker, prices and BOP
 Second - describing production by industries and sectors
• Production, behaviour and participation of
corporations in the economy
 Third - elements of fiscal policies and the impact of
those on other sectors
• behaviour and participation of Government in the
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economy, taxes
Economic indicators approach to
macroeconomic analysis
 By linking the indicators to macro-economic framework, it
would be possible to identify not only the issues but also
the underlying variables that could measure the impact
of policies addressing the issues.
 As a macro accounts framework is generally used to
address policy issues within a country, the development
of indicators based thereon
• would stimulate the use of those indicators by national
Governments in their assessment of national
conditions and developments,
• in addition to the present use of indicators by
international agencies.
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Advantages of economic indicators
approach
 Simple and understandable economic constructs that
summarize the development of the economy and the
economic and financial vulnerabilities over time.
 Economic indicators within a balanced system of
national accounts are mutually consistent.
 Economic indicators use the real and financial
interconnectedness within sectors, between sectors
and their counterparties in the rest of the world.
 Economic indicator analysis improve the use of
national accounts and its quality and reveal data
gaps
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Links between statistics, macro accounts,
indicators, projections and policies
[c]
Projections
of future
development
[b]
[h]
[a]
Policy
analysis and
formulations
Selection and
compilation of
indicators
measuring past
trends
[g]
Macro
accounts
design and
compilation
[e]
Statistics and
statistical
development
[f]
[d]
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Links between statistics, macro accounts,
indicators, projections and policies
 Indicators and macro accounts play a central role in
statistical development and policy formulation.
 Policy formulation could be based on the use of indicators
measuring past and present trends [a]
 May also take into account future developments that are
based on alternative values of the indicators in the future
[b].
 The use of indicators in projections is reflected in a direct
link with the indicators measuring past trends [c].
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Links between statistics, macro accounts,
indicators, projections and policies
 In order to define statistical development that would
support policy formulation, links are needed to translate
policy formulation
• into indicators [d].
• indicators into the design and compilation of macro
accounts [e] and
• macro accounts into statistical development [f].
 The derivation of values of indicators are represented by
the reverse links
• between statistics and the compilation of macro
accounts [g], and
• between the macro accounts data and the derivation of
indicator values [h].
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Scope of Macro-economic Analysis by
Milestones and Minimum Required Data
Set (MRDS)
 Milestone 1.GDP by Industry and Expenditure in current and volumes
 Growth analysis
 Milestone 2. GNI of Total Economy and Balance of Payments (current,
capital and financial accounts) and GFS transaction accounts
 Relations with the rest of the world (BoP) analysis
 Milestone 3. Production and generation of income accounts for
institutional sectors and for GG income distribution accs (including IIP
for BoP and GFS transactions and stock in assets and liabilities)
 Productivity analysis and fiscal analysis
 Milestone 4. Production, generation, distribution, redistribution and use
of income accounts and capital accounts for all institutional sectors (up
to net lending)
 Income distribution analysis
 --------------- Minimum required macroeconomic data set, annual
institutional sector accounts up to net lending and quarterly GDP
and quarterly BoP
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Scope of Macro-economic Analysis by
Milestones and Minimum Required Data
Set (MRDS)
 Milestone 5. Production, income and use accounts,
capital accounts and financial accounts for
institutional sectors
 Growth analysis, BOP analysis, productivity analysis,
fiscal, income distribution analysis and investmentfinancing analysis
 Milestone 6. All transaction and flows accounts plus
balance sheets
 Financing-debt analysis (Flow of funds) and
vulnerability analysis (currency mismatches, maturity
mismatches (roll-over of debt), capital structure
(equity vs debt), solvency (assets over liabilities)
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Reference
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/SeriesF/SeriesF_81E.pdf
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http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/default.asp
SNA@un.org
Point for discussion
 Does the present scope, detail and quality of National
Accounts of your country meet present policy
demands in an interconnected economic and financial
domestic and global economy?
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Thank You
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