Global Security and Development
National Security and Defense Transformation
September-December 2014
Dr Keagle—keaglej@ndu.edu
202-685-2530 (wp)
703-764-0726 (hp)
COURSE DESCRIPTION (3 CREDIT HOURS): Change brings with it challenges—at the
individual, organizational, and systemic levels. It involves behaviors and cultures with often
deep-seated traditions. This course will explore the scope and magnitude of the transformational
forces at work in our national security and defense establishments. By its nature the course will
be about warfare—how the nation goes about the business of preparing, equipping, and training
itself to deter and if necessary to fight traditional wars and the new kinds of challenges that might
lead to armed conflict. It will also be about sociology, bureaucratic politics, the role of the
media, economics, health care, power…. Most of all this semester it will be about the politics of
the national security and the sequestration/budget pressures on the defense budget.
PREREQUISITES: The student should know the basic features of the national security and
defense policy making processes as well as the contemporary challenges the U.S. faces in the
international system. An undergraduate foundation in IR and American foreign policymaking
will be helpful, although this will truly be a course multi-disciplinary at its heart.
COURSE OBJECTVES: Upon course completion, the student should have a reinforced
understanding of:
1. the array of issues transforming the business of national security and defense—and how
they are changing the processes of national security and defense policymaking in the U.S.
as well as the manner in which the actors in the U.S. government establishment understand
and decide issues.
2. how Washington works and how it responds to (or resists) change. In this sense, this
course will likely be different from any other course you have ever taken.
3. the way in which the current menu of issues facing the international community offers
threats as well as opportunities not only for the system as a whole and us as inhabitants of
this planet, but also for the nation state, which has been the dominant form of organization
for the past 500 years.
You should also be able to apply such knowledge to specific issues as well as synthesize across
disciples and analyze and evaluate options.
REQUIRED TEXTS: Read, read read! Watch, watch watch! Think, think, think! Time,
Newsweek, The Economist, The Washington Post (generally). The discussion and examination
of most issues will be supported with readings I will supply through hot links to internet
available materials. Watch from the menu of public affairs broadcasts. I will provide either links
or actual hard copies of a range of materials as the course unfolds.
METHODOLOGY:
This class is a seminar. No more that one-half of any meeting will be devoted to a formal
lecture, and student involvement is encouraged during any lecture--and paramount to the
success of the seminar. Significant burdens lie on each of us to be prepared fully prior to
class. This means, of course, that assignments should be accomplished before class.
Moreover, we all must devote time prior to class to thinking through the issues raised in the
readings. You should allocate at least one-half of your preparation time to these thoughtful
deliberations. Learn to read quickly and carefully—and make strategic decisions about
what to read—and how to share your insights with others—in class and at the workplace.
This is a discussion based learning environment—not lecture based.
I will assume the burden of making the seminars enjoyable learning experiences--a place
and time we all look forward to. I will mix a variety of techniques throughout the course so
that we are more able to keep our focus on learning. Learning can be fun, and making it so is
my primary objective.
EVALUATION:
Grading is important to you and me and is a responsibility I take very seriously. I am flexible
in my approach as to how you may earn your grade and will detail this more thoroughly in
class. What follows is my general expectation for your level of work. Class attendance is
expected.
One written issue paper (see below)
25%
Major (10-15 pages) written report
and oral presentation on selected
transformation topic
50%
Class discussions
25%
Final Exam (optional—can raise your evaluation one letter grade)
Each issue paper is to be three-five pages in length and will contain the following sections—
background, issue, options, recommendations, and traps (sample format will be provided).
An additional one-half page of talking points are also required. You will write this as if you were
crafting a position for your “principal,” who sits at the table of the senior-level, NSC-chaired
meeting. You will be recommending a course of action, or option, for the president—this
President. It must be in the ballpark of what he is willing to consider. How you define the issue
is the starting point of the paper and crucial to what follows (not everyone will frame the issue
the same.
The major paper can have a similar format but requires more analysis and evaluation.
Papers may be submitted electronically (Microsoft Word document) or paper. I normally
return the electronic submissions with one working day. Paper submissions will be returned to
you the next scheduled class unless you and I arrange differently. Papers due at beginning of
class on Oct 14 and December 9.
TOPICS FOR EXAMINATION:
General approach—we will look at some theory early. Ideally each student or small group of
students will specialize in a particular topic or two—and I will assist in the research and student
preparation to focus discussion on the various topics we explore.
I could lecture this all—but that is not my approach to a fun-and productive graduate learning
experience. You have important roles, and I will be there to help focus your interests and make
our sessions together true seminar experiences. Background readings for background; source
documents, plus insights gleaned from contemporary comments, speeches, press conferences, etc.
The National Security Policy Process
http://www.ndu.edu/icaf/outreach/publications/nspp/docs/icaf-nsc-policy-processreport-08-2011.pdf
Big Data and the NSA
Challenges to the Constitution—Security vs. Liberty (the Ben Franklin quote now
much more commonly referenced); this is a serious part of the course—with an examination
of the role of social media and EO 12333 and Section 215 of the Patriot Act—and spying on
congress and our allies
The Changing Nature of Warfare: new Roles and Missions?
DOD Directive 3000.5 and Stability Operations
Post Ukraine—fighting a war against criminals, thugs, IO campaigns, and outside support
Whither Novorossiya and its impact on NATO Art V guarantees
Reconstruction
Prospects for Reintegration/Reconciliation in Iraq given ISIS and whatever follows al
Maliki, Afghanistan post Karzai and elsewhere; a new kind of soldier; Three Cups of Tea;
See also the new US Army field manual 3-24 (Petraeus’s counterinsurgency strategy
implemented in Iraq and being given much of the credit for the success of the surge)—
http://www.fas.org/irp/dodder/army/fm3-24.pdf and the debate with CT advocates (Biden) this
may be decided on cost grounds.
We will also examine the new National Defense Strategy. This really directs the Services to get
serious about asymmetric warfare and will turn the R & D and AT & L processes on their heads.
New AF strategy focuses on necessary personnel changes plus continued movement toward
integrating autonomous systems
See Panetta to BENS, Nov 2012 re the new nature of the deployed force—drones, Intel, SOF, HN
forces, contractors
Is “Clear, Hold, Build’ outdated? Is there a role in Afghanistan beyond CT? Reconstruction?
Economic Development? Governance and Corruption? Reconciliation? A New Silk Road?
What is the bottom line mission in Afghanistan?
Do the American people have the patience to see through a decades’ long commitment.
Is there a casualties threshold? Did we cross it with the Chinook shootdown?
How and in what sequence and with what prioritization and with what agencies do we
accomplish security, governance and development missions?
The Changing Nature of Warfare: New Operations
A Decentralized Battlefield? Network centric operations and network enabled
capabilities
Information Operations and the Battle of Ideas: Messages, Mediums, and Methods
Role of 24 hours news; embedded reporters; internet; Al Jazeera (and others);
individual IPods
See for example Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Special report, “The War of Images
and Ideas,” Daniel Kimmage and Kathleen Rodolfo, DC, RFE/RL, Inc., 2007
Role of UAVs/RPVs/Unmanned systems—a lot here—perhaps the most
transformational of any aspect of national security—and really tied to resources
challenges—See also role of autonomy, trust, human interface in the kill chain—much
of this intersects wit he law of armed conflict
Have we armed and trained the ISIS into the successful fighting force we have seen as
of 8/14??
.
China—And Asia
What should the new relationship be in the era of the pivot? U.S. hegemony replaced
by leadership and cooperation? See what Kissinger has to say
Recent PRC claims regarding sovereignty over the South China Sea and annual DOD
submission to Congress re PRC military modernization, August 2010
PRC sends carrier to sea for test voyage—Summer 2011
Role of Ballistic Missile Defense in defending from DPRK threats—SM III
and Aegis as game changers
Rise of Japan-Taiwan-Australia alliance? The first and second Island ring strategy?
Recent US/ROK military exercises
How does Air Sea Battle work at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels? See
Keagle in Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 70, 3rd Quarter 2013
What about A2/AD?
Resetting Relations with Russia
Georgia and Ukraine—energy issues front and center? Or is it about sovereignty?
The New START, verification and nuclear force modernization
Post-Snowden—what comes after the pause?
Novorossiya—what does it mean?
ASW—could breakthroughs threaten our strategic triad?
Transforming NATO
New defense and political roles/
Support for Afghanistan? And other out of area operations/
Whither Europe, the Euro-zone and the EU post Ukraine? Are sanctions enough?
What does effective deterrence mean in this context?
The Changing Nature of Warfare: a new Military Medicine Battlespace and the new
Costs of Warfare: IEDS, PTSD and Traumatic Brain Injuries; C-17s as flying ICUs;
modern day bleed-out challenges; cost of military health care (disabled, dependents,
retirees); new proposals on military retirement to be replaced with a 401K-like system
See Dole –Shalala Report, “Serve, Support, and Simplify,” July 2007
See DD report of mental health-http://www.taps.org/%5Cdownload%5CDOD%20Mental%20Health%20Task%
20Force%20Report.pdf
Also, the pure economic costs of health care
Resistance to Change: New capabilities vs. legacy systems
UAVs—Predator WASPS, nano systems
Space—ASATs, BMD, and the Aegis we will explore Chinese thinking here—
Google “Studies 9 and 32”; 2011 released Space strategy
Non lethal weapons: Directed Energy Weapons (active denial
systems):
Cyber Power and Security )2011 released cyber strategy—cooperation with
private sector—sniping and offensive cyber strategic elements
vs.
F-22s, JSFs, JDAMs and PGMs, Carrier Battle Groups, Abrams/M-1
tanks
F-35
Smart Defense—what does it mean?
Reorganizing DOD: AFRICOM—a truly interagency command? Consolidation of the
COCOMs????? The largest AFRICOM base is in Djibouti? Why?
AFGHAN All-Hands—the next generation of interagency
reform
The End of JFCOM? What was really cut?
DoD budget cuts—effect on outsourcing (contractors) and the political
process—the costs of the wars—how much can we shrink the force?
Furloughs and Involuntary Reductions in Force (RIFs)????
The fiscal/budget realities--cost of the retirement system and health care—future
of TRICARE for life
Money money, money—cutting major weapon systems and revamping
personnel, health and retirement systems—but how about taking care of the vets—and PTSD,
TBI and Gulf War Syndrome—money, money, money
Energy Challenges
Supply/demand/transportation/production/refineries
See work of Richard Andrus—key is JP-4 and the cost of keeping the USAF flying
See LMI Report FT602T1/April 2007, Transforming the Way DOD Looks at Energy,
Security Considerations for a Warming Arctic: Unfrozen Treasures and an Ice
Breaker Gap?
Role of the Coast Guard, global warming and possible energy resources in the
Arctic. See for example CRS Report RL 34391, “Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker
Modernization: Background, Issues, and Options for the Congress,” by Ronald
O’Rourke, February 26, 2008.
What is Russia up to in the Arctic? Does it create an operational gap?
The Big Five?—Canada, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Nigeria
Russia and its supply riches
Growing demand from China and India
Energy Security-- Fossil Fuel international dependence? LNG and or hydro-fracturing
as game changers?????
Reorganizing for National Security:
Information and Intelligence Sharing Across International, Interagency, Federal, State,
and Public Sector Boundaries; Need to Know vs. Need to Share; A new GoldwaterNichols Act or National Security Act (1947) rewritten for 2009; Jointness replaced by
interagencyness and coalitionness (Jim Locher)
Top Secret America—Wash Post Series July 2010
New relationships among State, Defense and the IC (see Michael Flynn)
How to we do coalition ops in the future—sharing information is key—but we come
from a Five Eyes culture
.
Authorizing and Funding for National Security
Obama approach for Afghanistan—as differentiated from Bush and
Iraq
Executive-Congressional Relations
War Powers Act—undoing authorizations for the use of military force post 9/11; see
Obama speech at NDU 2013
Congressional Resolutions
Authorizations and Appropriations Process
Supplementals
Covert Budgets and the Need for Intelligence
The militarization of foreign policy—see Section 1206 and 1207 issues.
Obviously, the country will continue to debate whether or not the “war” in Afghanistan
continues beyond 2014. This is both a $$ issue and an international support issue. Can we
stay long enough to effect political reintegration, reconciliation, and development? How
important are the 2014 elections?
The Changing Laws of War
Geneva Convention, GITMO and Abu Graib
Where is the line? Torture and other Information acquiring techniques
Renditions
Illegal Combatants, Habeas Corpus and the prisoners’ rights
Unreasonable Search and seizure: Patriot Act, FISA, warrantless searches, electronic
eavesdropping/intercept, the 4th Amendments
As you know Obama has changed course from his campaign rhetoric to his positions as
president.. That will be fruitful for our discussions as well as historical material. Trials of
Karadic and Mladic?
What about Libya—and Syria
The Role of the People
Public Support and Unpopular Wars
Draft vs. All-Volunteer Force--this is a very serious issue Total Force: Role of the Guard
and Reserves--Note the promotion of the Chief of the National Guard Bureau to 4-star rank (but
still not a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Tour lengths, dwell time, and individual family health—will we really go to 9 month
deployments followed by 3 years home?
The VA and Society’s Responsibility for the Disabled Vet—and the cost
See selected background readings
Background Readings.
Remarks by President Barack Obama to the Australian Parliament, 17
Nov 2011, [Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2011/11/ 17/remarks-president-obama- australianparliament]
Hillary Clinton, "America's Pacific Century," Foreign Policy, November 2011, [Available at
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas
pacific centuryl
U.S. Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership, Priorities for 21st Century
Defense, January 2012 [Available via BlackBoard or at
www.defense.gov/news/Defense Strategic Guidance]
Briefing on Defense Strategic Guidance, 5 January 2012, [Available at
http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4953]
Remarks from Defense Strategic Guidance Media Roundtable, January 5, 2012, [Available at
http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4954]
Speech by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta on Major Budget Decisions, January 26, 2012,
[Available at http:ljwww.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1647J
Supplemental Readings. The supplemental readings listed in this syllabus are NOT meant to
be prescriptive; rather, their intent is to provide a range of issues or context for students to
consider as they develop their strategy. Similarly, this is not a full list of available information.
There is an expectation that students will have to conduct research outside of these documents
to develop and support their strategy.
Thinking about the Near Future
Martin lndyk, Tanvi Madan, and Thomas Wright eds., Big Bets and Black Swans: Foreign Policy
Challenges for President Obama's Second Term, January 2013, (Foreign Policy Project at
Brookings, Washington, D.C.). [Available via BlackBoard or at
http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2013/big-bets-black-swans]
The National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, November 2008
(Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office).
National
Global
2030: Alternative Worlds, December 2012
(Washington, D.C: Government Printing Office).
Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community: Statement for the Record
Before the 5. Select Comm. on Intelligence, Mar, 12, 2013, 116th Cong., (2013) (Statement of
James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence).
Some Thoughts on US Strategy
Daniel Deudney and John Ikenberry, Democratic Internationalism: An American Grand Strategy
for a Post-exceptionalist World, November 2012, (Working Paper, Council on Foreign Relations
International Institutions and Global Governance Project, Washington, D.C.).
Patrick C. Doherty, "A New U.S. Grand Strategy," Foreign Policy, January 9, 2013.
[Available at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/a new US grand
strategy]
Robert A. Manning, Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World, December 10, 2012,
(Washington, D.C.: Atlantic Council, 2012).
Barry R. Posen, "Pull Back: The Case for a Less Activist Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs,
92 no. 1 (Jan/Feb 2013): 116-128.
U.S. Economic Posture for the Future
Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale, Fiscal Fatigue: Tracking the Budget Outlook as Political
Leaders Lurch from One Artificial Crisis to Another, February 28, 2013 (Washington, D.C.:
Brookings Institute, 2013). [Available at
http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/02/28-fiscal-fatigue-budget-outlook-gale]
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2023,
February 2013 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office).
Strategic Choices for US Military Futures
David Barno, Nora Behsahel and Travis Sharpe, Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in an Age of
Austerity, Responsible Defense Series, October 2011, (Washington, D.C.: Center for New American
Security, 2011).
Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman's Strategic Direction to the Joint Force, the Joint Staff,
February 6, 2012. [Available via BlackBoard or at
http://www.dodlive.mil/index.php/2012/02/strategic-direction-to-the-joint-force/]
John Deutch et. all, Letter to the Honorable Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, March 5, 2013.
Michele Flournoy and Janine Davidson, "Obama's New Global Posture," Foreign Affairs, 91
no. 4 (Jul/Aug 2012): 54-63.
The Asia-Pacific Pivot
Shawn Brimley and Ely Ratner, "Smart Shift: A Response to 'The Problem with the Pivot',"
Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013): 177-181.
Aaron L. Friedberg, "Bucking Beijing: An Alternative U.S. China Policy," Foreign
Affairs, 91 no. 5 (Sep/Oct 2012), 48-58.
T.X. Hammes, "Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict,"
Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 278 (June 2012). [Available
via Blackboard or at
http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/SF%20278%20Hammes.pdf]
Justin Logan, "China, America, and the Pivot to Asia," CATO Institute, Policy Analysis No. 717,
January 8, 2013. [Available via BlackBoard or at http://www.cato.org/publications/policyanalysis/china-america-pivot-asia]
Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, "How China Sees America: The Sum of Beijing's Fears,"
Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 5 (Sep/Oct 2012), 32-47.
Vikram Nehru, The Rebalance to Asia: Why South Asia Matters, March 13, 2013,
(Washington, D.C.: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013). [Available at
http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/03/13/rebalance-to-asia-why-south-asiamatters/fq97#]
Robert Ross, "The Problem with the Pivot," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 6 (Nov/Dec 2012): 70-82.
Phillip C. Saunders, "Managing Strategic Competition with China," Institute for
National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 242, July 2009. [Available via
BlackBoard or at www.ndu.edu/inss/docuploaded/SF242China Saunders.pdf]
The Greater Middle East and South Asia
Richard L. Armitage, R. Nicholas Burns, and Richard Fontaine, Natural Allies: A Blueprint for
Future U.5.-lndia Relations, October 2010, (Washington, D.C.: Center for New American
Security, 2010).
Sheri Berman, "The Promise of the Arab Spring." Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013), 64-74.
Amitai Etzioni, "Shifting Sands," The Journal of International Security Affairs, no. 20
(Spring/Summer 2011), 87-97.
Seth G. Jones, "The Mirage of the Arab Spring" Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013),
55-63. Colin H. Kahl, "Not Time to Attack Iran - a Response to: 'Time to Attack Iran',"
Foreign Affairs,
91 no. 2 (Mar/Apr 2012), 166-173.
Matthew Kroenig, "Time to Attack Iran," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2012), 76-86.
Raja Mohan,
of
Return
American Interest, 5 no. 5 (May/Jun 2010),
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George Perkovich, Toward Realistic U.S - India Relations, 2010, (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, 2010).
NA TO and Europe
Richard Hass, "Continental Drift," The Washington Post, June 19, 2011: Bl.
Francis G. Hoffman, Alternative American Grand Strategies: Implications for NATO and EUCOM, Institute
for National Security Studies, Monograph in support of the Atlantic Council - National Defense
University project on the future of US European Command, (July 19, 2012).
Leo Michel, NATO, the European Union, and the United States: Why not a virtuous menage a
trois?" Institute for National Security Studies, Monograph in support of the joint Atlantic
Council - National Defense University Future of US European Command project, (July 19, 2012).
Russia and its Neighbors
Ariel Cohen, "U.S. Policy on Russia for Obama's Second Term," The Heritage Foundation,
Issue Brief No. 3854, February 20, 2013.
Agnia Grigas, "Legacies, Coercion and Soft Power: Russian Influence in the Baltic
States," Chatham House, Briefing Paper 2012/04, August 2012.
Andrew C. Kuchins and Igor A. Zevelev, "Russian Foreign Policy: Continuity in
Change," The Washington Quarterly, 35 no. 1, (Winter 2012), 147-161.
Jim Nichol, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia: Political Developments and Implications for
U.S.lnterests, Congressional Research Service (CRS), January 24, 2013.
Jim Nichol, Central Asia's Security: Issues and Implications for U.S. Interests, Congressional
Research Service (CRS), March 11, 2010.
Jim Nichol, Russian Political, Economic, and Security Issues and U.S. Interests, Congressional
Research Service (CRS), June 13, 2011.
Sergey Markedonov, "What Washington Wants in the Caucasus," The National
Interest, June 12, 2012. [Available at http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/whatwashington-wants-the- caucasus- 7038]
John W. Parker and Michael Kofman, "Russia Still Matters: Strategic Challenged and
Opportunities for the Obama Administration," Institute for National Security Studies,
Strategic Forum No. 280, (March 2013).
Dmitri
Vision a
report presented at
Chicago Council on
Global Defense and the Future of NATO, Chicago, IL, (2830 May, 2012).
Africa
Andre Le Sage, "Africa's Irregular Security Threats: Challenges for U.S.
Engagement," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No.
255, (May 2010).
Princeton N. Lyman and Kathryn A. Robinette. "Obama and Africa: Matching
Expectations with Reality." Journal of International Affairs, 62, no. 2 (2009): 1-XI.
Lauren Ploch, Africa Command: U.S Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S Military in
Africa,
Congressional Research Service (CRS), April 3, 2010.
Latin America and the Western Hemisphere
John A. Cope and Frank 0. Mora, "Hemispheric Security: A New Approach," Current History,
108
no. 715 (Feb 2009): 65-71.
R. Evan Ellis, "The United States, Latin America and China: A 'Triangular
Relationship'," Inter- American Dialogue, Working Paper, (May 2012).
Christopher Sabatani, "Rethinking Latin America," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 2 (Mar/Apr 2012): 8-
13.
Energy Security
ExxonMobile, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040,
[Available at
www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/files/news pub
eo.pdf]
Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator, International Energy Outlook 2011, Outlook, September 2011,
U.S. Energy Information Administration