Epistemological Foundations
and Organisational Principles
for a Futures Toolkit – A
Futures Literacy Perspective
Riel Miller
FUTURREG
Turku, June 7, 2006
Riel Miller, 2005
The End of Certainty
Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning
of a new rationality in which science is no
longer
and
… weidentified
are nowwith
ablecertitude
to include
probability with ignorance. … science is no
probabilities
in
the
formulation
of
the
longer limited to idealized and simplified
basic laws
of physics.
Once this
situations
but reflects
the complexity
of is
the
real
world,
a science that
views us and
our
done,
Newtonian
determinism
fails;
creativity
as part
of alonger
fundamental
trend by
the future
is no
determined
present at all levels of nature.
the present….
Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature
Riel Miller, 2005
A “non-modal” approach to
thinking about the future
Branching assumes that history
can be envisaged as a tree with
many branches, the bifurcation of
which represents points where
different events present agents
with choices... (Booth et. al. p. 6)
Riel Miller, 2005
Branching
Subject
(model)
Time
Riel Miller, 2005
A “modal” approach to
thinking about the future
The possible worlds thesis
explores the possibilities
that a number of different
worlds exist, each different
from our own - in so much
as in these different worlds,
different states of affairs
have obtained. (Booth et. al. p. 7)
Riel Miller, 2005
Possible Worlds
(constrained by the same necessity – basic assumptions)
Subject
(model)
NOW
Time
Riel Miller, 2005
What is futures literacy?
Riel Miller, 2005
Definition
Futures literacy is the capacity
to question the assumptions
used to make decisions today
and to systematically explore
the possibilities of the world
around us through a mastery of
rigorous imagining techniques.
Riel Miller, 2005
Futures Literacy
• Level 1 futures literacy
– Temporal awareness, values,
expectations
• Level 2 futures literacy
– Rigorous imagining
• Level 3 futures literacy
– Strategic scenarios
Riel Miller, 2005
Thinking about the future: How
to select which stories to tell
Conceivable
Futures
?
?
?
?
Possible Futures
Riel Miller, 2005
Level 1 Futures Literacy
Temporal awareness,
values, expectations
Riel Miller, 2005
Step 1 - Value & trend scenarios
• Method: Experiential - expectational
• Strengths: Rich detail, normativetrend scenarios, accessible
narratives, builds temporal awareness
• Weaknesses: Incommensurate
variables, incoherent models, usually
ineffective for policy
• Outcome: Leadership & dialogue
• Products: Report explicit values &
expectations, familiar stories
Riel Miller, 2005
Baby Bear, Mamma Bear,
Papa Bear Scenarios
Population
Papa
Mamma
Baby
Time
Riel Miller, 2005
The Good, The Bad
& The Ugly
Global
Adopt Kyoto
No
Muddle
Warming: Agreement agreements through
(good)
(bad)
(ugly)
Human
Moderate
Scenarios
Massive
impact on
human
climate
climate
induced
disruption
change
disruption
reduced
of climate
Build composite scenarios combining
trends & preferences
Riel Miller, 2005
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
Bear Scenarios
Knowledge
Driven
Commercially
Driven
Mixed Model
Low enrollement
growth
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Medium enrollment
growth
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Scenario 6
High Enrollment
growth
Scenario 7
Scenario 8
Scenario 9
Low enrollement
growth
Scenario 10
Scenario 11
Scenario 12
Medium enrollment
growth
Scenario 13
Scenario 14
Scenario 15
High Enrollment
growth
Scenario 16
Scenario 17
Scenario 18
Low rate of tech
change
High rate of tech
change
Riel Miller, 2005
Level 2 Futures Literacy
1. Rigorous imagining – a model
sets parameters for the frame
2. Telling good stories narrative
rules – assumptions for the
frame
3. Form/function scenarios
within the Frame
Riel Miller, 2005
Step 2 - Rigorous imagining
• Method: Construct possibility space,
descriptive model of the subject
• Strengths: Expands range of possible
futures, tailored to task, analytical
• Weaknesses: Non-obvious outcomes, no
probability assessment, reduced number
of variables
• Outcome: Imagining futures that operate
under different assumptions in an
analytically clear fashion
• Products: Builds up metrics (parameters)
for a frame for mapping policy relevant
scenarios that can be connected to
probabilities & preferences
Riel Miller, 2005
What is a possibility map?
Select:
– Specific topic
– Theory (social science) underlying
attributes
– Variables (metrics) underlying attributes
An example:
– Specific topic: electricity
– Dimension of change: pervasiveness
– Possibility space of pervasiveness:
a) ease-of-use
b) range-of-uses
Riel Miller, 2005
Technology possibility space
Simple
Ease
of use
Difficul
t
Electricity
Limited &
homogeneous
Unlimited &
Range
heterogeneous
of uses
How to select scenarios?
Riel Miller, 2005
Step 3. Telling good stories –
five narrative criteria for framing
scenarios
1. Purpose/genre
2. Point-of-view
3. Temporal-chronological
frame
4. Protagonists
5. Causal rules – the
“physics of the situation”
Riel Miller, 2005
1. What is the type or
purpose of the story?
Not tragedy or comedy, thriller or
romance; but basic types:
• contingency planning/simulation
training
• optimisation testing
• discovery - exploration -imagining
Riel Miller, 2005
2. What is the point-of-view?
Not first or third person,
stream-of-consciousness or
dialogue; but is the story told
in terms of:
• the choices people make in
their everyday lives (micro) or
• aggregate outcomes (macro) –
or
• both explicit relationship
between micro & macro
Riel Miller, 2005
3. What is the temporal or
chronological frame?
Not beginning, middle and end; but
• comparative static (two or more
cross-sections) or
• dynamic/path (time-series) or
• backcasting (reverse engineered)
Riel Miller, 2005
4. Who are the main
protagonists?
Not hero and villain; but who makes
the decisions
• a specific institution (sub-unit) or
• a social/economic system (nation,
sector, etc.) or
• institutions nested within a dynamic
socio/economic context - interaction
Riel Miller, 2005
5. What rules apply to the
action?
Not is time travel allowed or
Matrix like suspension of the
rules of physics; but what
arethe assumptions that provide
the analytical definitions and
causal relationships that make
for robust social science.
Riel Miller, 2005
Example: the narrative assumptions for
my “Learning Intensive Society”
narrative:
• Purpose : Goal discovery – what is the
potential of the present?
• Point-of-view: Change in daily life (metric:
agriculture to industry)
• Temporal frame: Comparative static crosssection in 2030
• Protagonist: socio-economic system
(wealthy countries)
• Rules: universal declaration of human
rights, representative democracy, mixed
economies (markets not planning)
Riel Miller, 2005
Framing
the
scenarios
Riel Miller, 2005
Riel Miller, 2005
Riel Miller, 2005
Stories
within
the frame
Riel Miller, 2005
Step 4 - Form and Function Scenarios
• Method: Uses hypotheses regarding “role” &
organisation to select scenarios within the “frame”
• Strengths: Clear selection criteria based on
possibility space descriptive model as a way to
specify systemic outcomes under different
assumptions
• Weaknesses: Perceived as disconnected from
probability & desirability (but consistent with end
of certainty)
• Outcome: Decision compatible scenarios
• Products: Scenarios that clarify current
assumptions & highlights strategic choices (that
then need to be considered in light of expectations
& preferences)
Riel Miller, 2005
Six Electrification Scenarios
Organisation
Functions
Centralised
Decentralised
Only as a
Weapon
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Industrial
Power
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Consumer
Power
Scenario 5
Scenario 6
Map on to possibility space
Riel Miller, 2005
Simple
History
S2
Ease
of use
S4
S1
Difficult
S6
S3
Electricity
Limited &
homogeneous
S5
Range
of uses
Unlimited &
heterogeneous
Riel Miller, 2005
Level 3 Futures Literacy
Strategic scenarios
– Having distinguished possible,
probable and desirable:
– Reintroduce values and probability
– Focus on the assumptions and how
choices might make a difference
(defensive, neutral, transformative)
Riel Miller, 2005
Possible, probable, desirable
Conceivable
Futures
Strategic
Scenarios
Desirable
Futures
GBU &
Possibility
Bear Futures
Space
Futures
Probable
Futures
Possible Futures
Riel Miller, 2005
Step 5 - Strategic Scenarios
•Method: Use possibility space
descriptive model (Step 2) within a
frame (Step 3) to map form/function
scenarios (Step 4) using, in part, values
& expectations revealed in (Step 1) to
select strategic (systemic assumption
altering – or not) policy choices (Step 5)
•Strengths: High degree of imagination &
policy compatibility of scenarios
•Weaknesses: Not predictive
•Outcome: Focuses decision making on
changes today that might lead to a
different future, capacity building for
using/coping with spontaneity
•Product: stories of alternative presents
Riel Miller, 2005
Hybrid Strategic Scenario
Method
• Level 1 FL
– Values
– Expectations
– Preliminary dimensions of the subject
• Level 2 FL
–
–
–
–
–
Define subject using a descriptive model (variables)
Construct possibility spaces using variables
Frame the narrative
Develop function and form scenarios
Map the scenarios in the possibility space
• Level 3 FL
– Assess scenarios in terms of values
– Analyse scenario assumptions and pre-conditions
compared with today (the potential of the present)
– Compare current choices with the choices implied by the
scenarios
– Make decisions now with a greater awareness of the
possibilities of the world around you
Riel Miller, 2005
A Perilous Transition?
Image: Sempe – crowd on a tight rope going from A to B
Certainly, if we do it this way
Futures Literacy as an alternative
Riel Miller, 2005
Motivating questions
How can we:
• reconcile greater freedom with collective
choices?
• embrace greater diversity without
inviting fragmentation & chaos?
• foster greater creativity without
increasing burn-out & stress?
• inspire responsibility?
• motivate change without resorting to
fear?
• manage risk without hierarchy?
• combine respect for complexity while
still gaining depth of understanding?
Riel Miller, 2005
Why futures literacy matters
• Hope matters for motivation –
what makes change worth the
candle
• Capacity to understand and
manage risk – making freedom
and heterogeneity liveable
• Grasping the potential of a nonergodic conjuncture: change in
the conditions of change
Riel Miller, 2005
A time for method and
methods for our time
Why futures literacy now? Because a
futures literate society can use:
– diversification, imagination and inter-
dependency
to
• embrace spontaneity,
experimentation & complexity
• without being overwhelmed by
– fear of the risks (perception)
– failure (reality of risk)
• in order to inspire aspirations
consistent with a world where means
are ends (values in practice)
Riel Miller, 2005
Build a bridge to
nowhere,
instead of
planning
use complexity,
heterogeneity,
network density
and the
capacity for
spontaneity
Riel Miller, 2005
“Virtually every step in the history of
human innovation and invention has
come about in the wake of someone
asking about imaginary possibilities,
speculating about what would happen if
and reflecting on yet-unrealised and
perhaps unrealisable possibilities."
Nicholas Rescher, Imagining Irreality
Thank you
Riel Miller
Riel Miller, 2005