REPORT OF STRATEGIC DIRECTOR OF CHILDREN’S SERVICES
TO SCHOOLS FORUM
On 18th March 2015
TITLE: REPORT ON THE PROVISION OF ADDITIONAL PRIMARY SCHOOLS
PLACES REQUIRED FOR SEPTEMBER 2015
RECOMMENDATIONS:
That Schools Forum approves a level of £1.834m funding provision for the growth fund
in 2015-16
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
The unprecedented increase in Primary School places that has been experienced at
both a local and national level has led to Salford creating an additional permanent 14
forms of entry to date with a further permanent 6 Forms of entry being delivered for
September 2015.
By September 2015 the Local Authority will have created an additional 20 Forms of
Entry via the expansion across 22 schools (creation of an additional 4,200 places)
A significant piece of work has been undertaken to identify demand going forward
across the primary estate and current projections are indicating that during the next four
years (Academic Years 2016 to 2020) an additional 3 to 4 Forms of Entry is required.
Officers are currently looking at future projections across the secondary estate. Initial
forecasts are indicating that pressure will be felt across some areas as early 2016/17.
Officers are currently exploring options and solutions going forward.
BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS: Schools Forum Report 8 January 2014
KEY DECISION:
NO
KEY COUNCIL POLICIES:
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EQUALITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND IMPLICATIONS:
Without this additional provision, inequality will be created across the city. A failure to
provide places will have an adverse impact on the pupils’ families and communities who
will be directly affected by lack of suitably located places.
ASSESSMENT OF RISK:
High risk of the Local Authority not being in a position to fulfil statutory responsibility to
provide school places for eligible applicants within Salford.
_____________________________________________________________________
SOURCE OF FUNDING:
Basic Need Fund for identified Capital works and Dedicated Schools Grant for Revenue
LEGAL IMPLICATIONS Supplied by: N/A
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS Supplied by: Chris Hesketh – Strategic Finance Manager and
Debbie Fulton – Finance Officer
Funding has been set aside in line with previous year’s requirement for growth funding.
The approved schools growth budget for 2014-15 is £1.92m. The actual expenditure is
£2.08m which is an overspend of 0.16m. For 2015-16, schools forum is asked to
approve a budget of £1.834m, see section 4.
Without the funding schools would not be able to financially support the predicted
increase in pupil numbers.
_________________________________________________________________ ___
PROCUREMENT IMPLICATIONS Supplied by: NA
OTHER DIRECTORATES CONSULTED: CSSD
CONTACT OFFICER: Paula Flynn
TEL NO: 778 0447
WARDS TO WHICH REPORT RELATES: ALL
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1. Background
The unprecedented increase in Primary School places has been experienced at both a
local and national level.
Initially additional places were created through establishing ‘bulge’ provision,
predominantly in existing unused space in schools. This addition has successfully
created sufficient temporary ‘bulge class’ places to meet demand and provide much
needed surplus across all areas of the city.
Running parallel to this there has been a large amount of work involving extensive
reworking and refreshing of methods and systems, including the creation of 12 new
school planning areas.
Analysis in spring 2013 confirmed the effectiveness of the predictive methods, reliability
of the implementation process and general successful management of the programme
going forward.
2. Creation of Permanent Places
Projections going forward high-lighted that there would be a continued demand for
places and as such plans were put in place for permanent expansion of existing schools.
This has resulted in permanent increase in PAN across 22 schools, equating to an
additional 20 Forms of Entry (additional 4,200 places).
To date, there are only two Primary Schools (St John’s CE located in area 8 and the
proposed expansion of St Luke’s CE, located in adjacent planning area 9) that have
required the use of additional vacant city council owned land (Former Oakwood High
School site and former All Hallows RC High site).
All capital costs relating to the increases (bulge classes and permanent expansions)
have been met via the Local Authorities Basic Need funding. To date a total of £21m has
been spent from Basic Need with a further £20.5 million being available for delivery of
the 2015/16 and 2016/17 schemes.
3. Future Primary Demand
A significant piece of work has been undertaken to identify demand going forward. In
order to meet demand for September 2015 a further 6 permanent Forms of Entry are
being created, with a projected further 3 to 4 Forms of Entry being required over the next
4 years (Academic Years 2016 to 2020).
The issue now however relates to the long term proposals (post 2015). There are still a
number of schools that would allow for further on site expansion and therefore where
possible we will continue to undertake permanent uplifts across these sites.
That said, we also now have a number of critical areas where we have either exhausted
all options or there is very little option for any further on site expansion. Examples of this
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would be Area 8 and 12. We therefore need to consider other options which will enable
the local authority to provide sufficient school places across each of the areas .i.e. use of
vacant sites/accommodation in order to expand existing schools. This may also have
additional impact on the schools growth budget, especially if the solution is for a split
site.
We may also need to explore the potential to create more 3 Form Entry schools. It
should be noted however that a 3 Form Entry expansion is not a solution for all and that
careful consideration would have to be given based on the individual school. This would
be measured on more than just demand and physical capacity to ascertain whether this
solution is workable for a particular school.
Another factor that needs to be taken into consideration relates to the housing
developments which are planned in various locations across the City. A significant piece
of work on the formulaic calculation of child yield has been carried out and we are now
using recent trend data.
This is proving fairly accurate at predicting the number of children likely to arrive into
Salford but clearly not the age group/Key Stage in which they will require a place. As
such the projected forecast as outlined above excludes any proposed housing. We do
however work very closely with our colleagues within regeneration and planning and
undertake regular reviews on current numbers and demand.
In year applications are still high across certain areas of the city and placing families
together can be challenging. We are therefore trying to carry between a 5% and 8%
surplus across each school planning area. At present, we are still managing to keep
allocations within 2 miles of the home address (other than by parental choice).
Secondary Forecasts
We are currently looking at future demand required across the secondary estate. Initial
forecasts are indicating that pressure will be felt across Year 7 areas as early 2016/17
with the need to create additional physical Year 7 places by 2017/18.
That said from a citywide view, there will be sufficient capacity across Year 7 until
2018/19 academic year but this would mean children having to travel further away from
their own community for schooling. It would also leave the city with very little surplus
capacity. Officers are therefore currently exploring options and solutions going forward.
As with the primary, the secondary strategy will split in to a short, medium and long term
programme, with the short and medium term providing quick fix solutions i.e. bringing
into use existing under used accommodation. Schools have also been split into planning
areas, however unlike the 12 primary planning areas, secondary are split across 3 main
areas covering the north, south and east of the city. Proposed solutions going forward
will be shared with Schools Forum once the full piece of work has been approved with
Mayoral Working Party.
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4. Revenue Funding Required for 2015-16
The approved schools growth budget for 2014-15 is £1.92m, including a £0.5m
additional allocation made on a one-off basis. Actual expenditure is £2.08m, which is an
overspend of 0.16m.
Assuming no increase, the growth budget for 2015/16 stands at £1.42m, the same as
the base budget for 2014/15.
Taking into account the discussion in sections 2 and 3 above, and known and estimated
pupil number projections, an estimate of the 2015/16 demand on the growth fund has
now been made. This forecast indicates a potential requirement of £1.73m, £0.3m in
excess of available funds, as set out below and in the attached spreadsheet appendix.
Growth fund, projected expenditure summary 2015/16
£000
Growth & continuous growth funding
Estimated possible additional bulge classes (based on previous
years)
Estimated trigger funding - primary
Estimated trigger funding - secondary
Total projected estimated growth & trigger funding
1,163
Base budget 2015-16
1,420
Projected shortfall in funds
100
100
370
1,733
-313
The DSG report to schools forum of 7 January noted the possibility of additional calls on
the growth fund above the £1.42m budget, although no additional provision was made at
the time. The report also outlined the proposed distribution of DSG through the schools
funding formula.
Schools Forum members will appreciate that the funding arrangements from
government to the authority, and from the authority to schools, are complex and,
unfortunately, an error was made. It has since been discovered that the proposed
allocation leaves £0.414m of DSG undistributed. While unintended, this gives the
opportunity of meeting the expected additional pressure on the growth fund from within
existing DSG resources. It is therefore proposed that the additional £0.414m is allocated
to the growth fund in 2015/16. This would cover the forecast demand with tolerance for a
small increase, if required.
If pressures on the growth fund are less going forward, then the additional amount
allocated in 2015/16 would be returnable to the schools funding distribution from
2016/17.
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5. Conclusion
While the number of additional pupils in Salford is increasing the overall volume is
predicted to remain more static over the next five years.
Nevertheless, there are pressures on the base budget provision for the growth fund in
2015/16 which can be met, with Schools Forum approval, from an unallocated amount of
DSG.
6. Recommendations
That Schools Forum approves a level of £1.834m funding provision for the growth fund
in 2015-16.
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