Implications of climate change
for economic development,
food security and livelihoods
Johann Bell, Chris Reid, Mike Batty, Edward Allison, Patrick
Lehodey, Len Rodwell, Tim Pickering, Bob Gillett, Johanna
Johnson, Alistair Hobday, Andreas Demmke
Outline
• Summary of effects on fisheries
resources
• Effects on plans to use resources
 Economic
development
 Food security
 Livelihoods
• Vital role of tuna
• Identifying the best adaptations
Skipjack tuna (A2)
West (average)
East (average)
2035
2050
2100
2035
2050
2100
+11%
-0.2%
-21%
+37%
+43%
+27%
Coastal fisheries (A2)
2035
2050
2100
Negligible
-10 to
-20%
up to
-50%
Freshwater fisheries (A2)
2035
2050
2100
+2.5%
+2.5 to
+7.5%
+2.5 to
+12.5%
Aquaculture (A2)
System
2035
Ponds
+Low
Coastal
-Low
2050
+Low to
Medium
-Low to
Medium
2100
+Medium
-Medium
Change in resources (A2)
Resource
West
2035
Freshwater fisheries
Aquaculture
*Fish in FW ponds
*Other commodities
2100
2035
Negligible
Tuna
Coastal fisheries
2050
East
Negligible
Negligible
2050
2100
How could the projected changes to
tuna resources affect plans for
economic development?
• Government revenue
• GDP

Development of national fleets

More domestic processing

DEVFISH Project
Economic development
•
Government revenue % (1998-2008)
%
%
6-12
10-25
<1
%
%
30-50
%
%
11
2-15
11
%
10-25
%
<5
Examples only
Range x-y%
Source: Gillett (2009)
Economic development
Changes in revenue % 2035
2050
2100 (A2)
%
%
%
%
%
30-50 +14.7 +17.1 +9.6
%
11
2-15
11
%
10-25
%+6.4
+7.1
+5.2
+5.9
+5.4
+4.3
Examples only
Data are midpoints of
Range x-y%
estimated change
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
Economic development
Changes in revenue % 2035
%
%
%
2100 (A2)
Lower estimate = 30% GR x 37% increase in
2035 = 11%
Higher estimate = 50% GR x 37% increase in
2035 = 18.5%
Midpoint 11-18.5% increase in GR = 14.7%
Therefore GR increases from midpoint value of
40% to 54.7%
%
%
2050
30-50 +14.7 +17.1 +9.6
%
11
2-15
11
%
10-25
%+6.4
+7.1
+5.2
+5.9
+5.4
+4.3
Examples only
Data are midpoints of
Range x-y%
estimated change
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
Economic development
Changes in revenue % 2035
2050
2100 (A2)
%
%
6-12
+1.2
+0.4
10-25
<1
-1.4
% +3.4
+3.9
-0.2
+0.01 -0.05 -0.15
%
%
%
11
11
%
%
<5
+0.08 -0.14 -0.36
Examples only
are midpoints of
Range x-y%Data
estimated change
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
Economic development
•
Gross Domestic Product % (1998-2008)
%
10-25
%
1-5
%
%
%
1-4
%
11
2-5
11
%
%
20-25
(Processing)
Examples only
Range x-y%
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
Economic development
Changes in GDP % 2035
2050
2100 (A2)
%
10-25
%
+4.2
+4.2 +1.7
%
%
%
%
11
11
%
%
20-25
+4.2
+2.8
-1.8
Examples only
are midpoints of
Range x-y% Data
estimated change
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
Economic development
Changes in GDP % 2035
2050
2100 (A2)
%
%
1-5
%
%
1-4
+0.46 +0.15 %
-0.51
+0.08 -0.29 -0.83
2-5
11
%
%
11
+0.11 -0.25 -0.54
%
Examples only
are midpoints of
Range x-y% Data
estimated change
Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)
Key points
• PICTs with greatest dependency on tuna
should receive additional benefits!
• Losses of revenue and GDP occur mainly
in PICTs where tuna makes a relatively
low contribution to economic
development (due to size of economies)
• Fairly good news!
How could changes to coastal fisheries
affect fish available for food security?
• Plans are to
provide
35 kg of fish per
person per year
• Maintain traditional
fish consumption
where it is >35 kg
Three categories of PICTs
Group 1Large area of reef per
Group 1
person
Group 2
Group 2
Large area of reef per
person but remote
Group 3
Group 3
Small area of reef per
person
Three categories of PICTs
Group 1
Group
1
Group 2
2
Group 3
3
PICT
Average reef
area per person
2010 (m2)
Cook Islands, Marshall Islands,
New Caledonia, Palau, Pitcairn
Islands and Tokelau
230,000
FSM, French Polynesia, Kiribati,
Niue, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis
and Futuna
90,000
American Samoa, Fiji, Guam,
Nauru, CNMI, PNG, Samoa,
Solomon Islands and Vanuatu
6500
Why is reef area so important?
• Most fish used for food are caught
near coral reef habitats
• Sustainable catches of fish from
reefs are not known for most PICTs;
median estimate of 3 tonnes per
km2 per year is used instead
Group 1
• No implications (even with climate change)
Production remains > 35 kg per person per year
Fish available per person per year (kg)*
PICT
2035 A2
2050 A2
2100 A2
Cook Islands
115
99
105
Marshall Islands
646
570
570
New Caledonia
313
256
233
Palau
321
286
286
Tokelau
495
446
446
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year
Group 2
• Some implications (assuming effective distribution)
Production usually > 35 kg per person per year
PICT
FSM
French Polynesia
Kiribati
Niue
Tonga
Tuvalu
Wallis & Futuna
Fish available per person per year (kg)
2035 A2
418
131
86
125
145
711
197
2050 A2
354
108
66
111
116
564
170
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year
2100 A2
236
57
26
80
50
234
96
Group 3
• Severe implications due to population growth
PICT
Fish available per person per year (kg)
2035
2050
2100
American Samoa
13
11
8
Fiji
35
32
26
Guam
3
3
2
Nauru
1
1
1
PNG
8
6
4
CNMI
10
9
9
Samoa
30
29
25
Solomon Islands
28
22
14
Vanuatu
9
7
4
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year
Additional effects of climate change
Fiji
40
35 kg
3
7
30
20
Solomon Islands
50
9
15
35
34
32
28
10
26
20
0
Availability of reef fish per capita (kg)
Availability of reef fish per capita (kg)
50
40
35 kg
30
7
7
13
16
21
24
20
28
28
22
10
19
14
11
0
2035
2050
Year
2100
2035
2050
Year
2100
Group 3
• Gap to be filled
PICT
American Samoa
Fiji
Guam
PNG
Nauru
CNMI
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Vanuatu
Gap in fish needed per person per year (kg)
2035
2050
2100
Popn CC A2 Popn CC A2 Popn CC A2
22
23
24
26
27
29
0
1
3
7
9
15
32
32
32
33
33
33
27
27
29
29
31
32
34
34
34
34
34
34
25
25
26
27
26
29
5
6
6
11
10
16
7
7
13
16
21
24
26
26
28
29
31
32
*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year
Where will the fish come from?
• Fortunately, we do have good
options!
Group 3 - How best to fill the gap?
Solomon Islands
2035 (33,947 t)
64%
27%
2050 (41,345 t)
46%
43%
2100 (68,910 t)
24%
0
10
11%
20
61%
30
40
50
60
70
80
Fish
(tonnes x tonnes
1000) (x1000)
Fish needed
forneeded
food security
Coastal fisheries
Freshwater fisheries
Pond aquaculture
Tuna (and bycatch)
Fiji
2035 (34,216 t)
79%
12%
6%
70%
2050 (37,125 t)
12% 6%
20%
59%
43%
10%
10
11%
20
36%
30
43%
40
50
0
13%
13%
32%
40%
44%
44%
6
8
10
American Samoa
Papua New Guinea
67%
44%
13%
2050 (3439 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
11%
11%
25%
29%
55%
55%
74%
55%
11%
2100 (4741 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
7% 9%
7% 9%
50
50
4
2035 (3056 t)
2035 (140,690 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
0
0
45%
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Papua New Guinea
2035 (140,690 t)
2035 (140,690 t)
16%
16%
35%
11%
2
Fish needed
x 1000)
Papua(tonnes
New Guinea
29%
29%
6%
2100 (8405 t)
2100 (46,608 t)
40%
40%
27%
2050 (7341 t)
63%
0
Samoa
2035 (7070 t)
16%
16%
68%
68%
100
100
150
150
200
200
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
250
250
300
300
0
0
83%
7% 9%
1
50
68%
2
100
3
150
4
200
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
250
5
300
Vanuatu
CNMI
2035 (2667 t)
2035 (14,844 t)
22%
75%
24%
2050 (18,534 t)
2050 (2805 t)
15% 6
78%
20%
2100 (31,289 t)
8%
80%
5
79%
2100 (3046 t)
11%
0
75%
10
15
16%
20
25
30
35
83%
0
0.5
1
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
5%
40%
95%
55%
11%
13%
11%
0.8
300
55%
2100 (730 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
3%
96%
7% 9%
2
50
0.7
250
44%
97%
29%
2100 (10,355 t)
2100 (274,625 t)
0
0
3.5
2050 (570 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
4%
16%
3
96%
40%
2050 (9374 t)
2050 (172,524 t)
29%
2.5
Nauru
Papua New Guinea
2035 (504 t)
2035 (140,690 t)
94%
44%
13%
2
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Guam
Papua New Guinea
2035 (8764 t)
2035 (140,690 t)
1.5
98%
68%
4
6
8
100
150
200
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
16%
10
250
12
300
0
7% 9%
0.1
0
0.2
50
68%
0.3
100
0.4
150
0.5
0.6
200
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)
How could changes to tuna, coastal
fisheries and aquaculture affect
livelihoods?
Period
Coastal
Inshore Other
pelagics groups
Present
plans
Freshw
PNG
2035
W
2050
W
2100
W
E
PNG
E
PNG
E
PNG
Aquaculture
Ponds Coastal
Tuna
West East
How could changes to tuna, coastal
fisheries and aquaculture affect
livelihoods?
Period
Coastal
Inshore Other
pelagics groups
Present
plans
Freshw
PNG
2035
W
2050
W
2100
W
E
PNG
E
PNG
E
PNG
Aquaculture
Ponds Coastal
Tuna
West East
How could changes to tuna, coastal
fisheries and aquaculture affect
livelihoods?
Period
Coastal
Inshore Other
pelagics groups
Present
plans
Freshw
PNG
2035
W
2050
W
2100
W
E
PNG
E
PNG
E
PNG
Aquaculture
Ponds Coastal
Tuna
West East
How could changes to tuna, coastal
fisheries and aquaculture affect
livelihoods?
Period
Coastal
Inshore Other
pelagics groups
Present
plans
Freshw
PNG
2035
W
2050
W
2100
W
E
PNG
E
PNG
E
PNG
Aquaculture
Ponds Coastal
Tuna
West East
How should we adapt?
• To reduce the threats
• To harness the opportunities
How should we adapt?
• ‘The past is another country; they do
things differently there’
(L. Harley, The Go-between, 1953)
How should we adapt?
• The future is another country; they do
things differently there!
• Good management now builds resilience
to climate change in the future!
• Expect the unexpected!
• If the worst or best case scenario occurs,
how would we handle it?
Adaptation decision framework
Addresses Climate Change
Near-term Loss
Near-term Gain
Addresses Present drivers
Long-term Loss
Lose-Lose
Long-term Gain
Lose-Win
X
X

Win-Win
Win-Lose
X


x
X
After Grafton (2010)
Adaptations (economic development)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to
manage effort of industrial
tuna fleets
La Niña
Vessel owners fishing in PNA waters
can purchase and trade fishing days
depending on the location of the tuna
Ask
El Niño
S
Source: P. Lehodey
Adaptations (economic development)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to
manage effort of industrial
tuna fleets
Skipjack tuna
La Niña
2050 A2
VDS has potentialAsk
to be modified regularly to
accommodate movement of tuna to the east
El Niño
S
2100 A2
Source: P. Lehodey
Adaptations (economic development)
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Energy audits of industrial
fishing vessels
• Addresses likelihood of near-term rises
in fuel costs
• Will assist national fleets from PNG and
Solomon Islands that may have to go
greater distances in the future to catch
fish for their canneries
Adaptations to supply canneries in
PNG and Solomon Islands
• Reduce access of distant water fishing nations to
•
•
•
the EEZ to provide more fish for national vessels
Require distant water fishing nations operating
with their zone to land some of the catch for use
by local canneries;
Enhance existing arrangements for the national
fleet to fish in other EEZs, and
Create incentives for tuna caught in other EEZs to
be landed in their ports
Adaptations (food security/livelihoods)
Restore and sustain coastal and
freshwater fisheries and their
habitats
W-W
Poorly-managed fisheries
a)
Quantity of fish/habitat
W-L
L-W
Fish habitat
• Ecosystem Approach
Fisheries Management
Fish
Fish available
available from
from
coastal
stocks
stocks
Gap in supply of
fish to be filled
Well-managed fisheries
b)
• FAO Code of Conduct for
Responsible Fisheries
Fish needed by
growing population
Time
Quantity of fish/habitat
L-L
Fish needed by
growing population
Fish habitat
Fish available from
stocks
Fish available from
coastal stocks
Time
Ask
Important for Group 3
but also for Group 2
near urban centres
Adaptations (food security/livelihoods)
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Increase access to tuna for
subsistence fishers with low-cost,
inshore Fish Aggregating Devices
(FADs)
Adaptations (food security/livelihoods)
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Store and distribute tuna and
by-catch from industrial fleets
to urban areas
Adaptations (food security/livelihoods)
L-L
L-W
Develop pond aquaculture
W-L
W-W
Adaptations (food security/livelihoods)
Manage forest cover in catchments of
freshwater ecosystems
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
2050 A2
Ask
And healthy coral reefs,
mangroves and seagrasses
Projected rainfall (A2)
Projecte
S
2035
5-15%
2050
10-20%
2100
10-20%
2100 A2
Source:
Source:
GehrkeP.et
Lehodey
al.; Lough et al.
Adaptations (food security/livelihoods)
Manage forest cover in catchments of
freshwater ecosystems
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
2050 A2
Ask
And healthy coral reefs,
mangroves and seagrasses
And damage to coral reefs,
mangroves and seagrasses
Projected rainfall (A2)
Projecte
S
2035
5-15%
2050
10-20%
2100
10-20%
2100 A2
Source:
Source:
GehrkeP.et
Lehodey
al.; Lough et al.
Adaptations (livelihoods)
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Moratoriums to rebuild sea
cucumber fisheries
Ask
Summary
Economic development
• East gains, where PICTs have high dependence, west
has losses but effects on GDP are small
Food security
• Effects of population growth swamp effects of climate
change
• Contribution of coastal fisheries decreases, but gap
•
can be filled mainly by tuna
Pond aquaculture and freshwater fisheries favoured
Summary
Livelihoods
• Losses from coastal fisheries, and limited growth for
coastal aquaculture
• Replaced by opportunities from more productive
tuna fisheries and pond aquaculture
Adaptations
• Win-win adaptations available to for economic
growth and food security
• Lose –win adaptations need to be implemented
urgently to reduce impacts on coastal fisheries