Global trends, development paradigms and food
security
FAO Rome 17 December 2014
Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù
Global Perspectives Studies -ESA
Economic and Social Department
Outline
1. Global trends
2. Trends in agricultural trade in CIS countries
3. Food and Nutrition Security in a countrywide framework
4. Development and development paradigms
5. Questions
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Population
Incremental population growth 2005/07-2050, millions (left-axis)
Percent population growth 2005/07-2050 (right-axis)
1,400
140
131
1,200
120
1,000
100
800
80
68
600
60
48
400
40
30
200
15
20
6
0
0
sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
East Asia
Near East & N.
Africa
Latin America
Developed
countries
Source: United Nations Population Division (2009).
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GDP
1. Global GDP is projected to increase 2.5
times to 2050
2. Per capita GDP 1.8 times
3. Faster Growth is expected in less
industrialized countries
4. This is an almost BAU scenario (Source WB
Development Prospects Group)
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Source of growth of agricultural production
Land
Cropping intensity
Yield
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Developing
countries
sub-Saharan Near East & N. Latin America
Africa
Africa
South Asia
East Asia
World
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Global production and trade
1. Increased production is expected from
Yield changes
2. Selected regions are expected to be net
importers (S.S. Africa, South Asia)
3. Others, net exporters (e.g. Latin America,
Central Asia)
4. Faster Growth is expected in less
industrialized countries
5. This is an almost BAU scenario (Source WB
Development Prospects Group)
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CIS countries: Net export projections
Russia Net Exports 000 tons
40,000
30,000
GRA
20,000
TUB
FRU
VEG
10,000
LIV
OTH
2006
2015
2030
2050
2080
-10,000
-20,000
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CIS countries: Net export projections
Central Asia C., Net Exports 000 tons
4,000
3,000
GRA
2,000
TUB
FRU
1,000
VEG
LIV
OTH
2006
2015
2030
2050
2080
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
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CIS countries: Net export projections
Non-EU Est-Europe. N.exp 000 tons
40,000
35,000
30,000
GRA
25,000
TUB
FRU
20,000
VEG
LIV
15,000
OTH
10,000
5,000
2,006
2,015
2,030
2,050
2,080
-5,000
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development paradigms
Growth and poverty reduction
Free market
trickle-downgrowth
Pro-poor
(inclusive)
growth
Agriculture versus growth
Low-wage
industry-led
development
Low-wage
import
substitution
Low-wage
labour exportled devt.
Emigration based
development
Technology changes and growth
Endogenous
growth based
development
Foreign Direct
Investment
based devt.
Agriculture, technology and poverty reduction
Agriculturebased
development
Rural /
territorial
development
Agricultural
commodities
export-led
External factors-based development
Strategic
opennessbased devt.
Exhaustible
resources
export-led
“Washington
consensus”
based devt.
Immigration
based
development
Foreign AidBased Inv
based devt.
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Development paradigms defined
A “Development paradigm” is a specific (codified, recognizable)
modality to achieve development comprising:
• A “vision” regarding a (desirable or likely) future state of a
socio-economic system, often materialized through
“storylines”;
• A set of objectives, to be achieved to concretize the vision;
• Selected assumptions regarding the way a socio-economic
system “works” (who does/will do what, why, how, for how
long, often comprising key cause-effect relationships;
• A set of policies (interventions, actions) aimed at achieving
the desired objectives.
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How a socio-economic system works: elements and linkages
Human resources
natural resources
Indirect taxes
Savings
Factor- resource
Markets
Taxes
Value Added
Activities
Households
Enterprises
Profits
Outputs
Inputs
Government
Imports
Remittances
Expatriated
profits
SavingsInvestment.
Investment (t+2)...
Investment (t+1)
Investment (t)
Domestic
Transfers
Commodity-service
markets
Final consumption
Exports
Man-made capital
Internat.
transfers
Current external
balance (+/-)
Rest of the World
National and international institutional set-up
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Impacts of different policy measures on the whole system
Factor and
resource
policies
Poverty - food
security policies
Human resources
Monetary
policies
Fiscal policies
natural resources
Indirect taxes
Man-made capital
Savings
Factor- resource
Markets
Taxes
Value Added
Activities
Households
Enterprises
Profits
Outputs
Inputs
Commodityservice markets
Exports
Government
Investment (t+2)...
Investment (t+1)
Investment (t)
Domestic
Transfers
Final consumption
Imports Remittances
Expatriated
profits
SavingsInvestment.
Internat.
transfers
Current external
balance (+/-)
Rest of the World
National and international institutional set-up
Technology and
marketing
policies
Domestic Price
policies
Trade, FDI and
exchange rate
policies
Public
Investment
polices
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Questions for the working groups
1) Visions and storylines. How do you see your country (or groups of
countries) in 25 years? Describe in few words two plausible “stories” (one
more optimistic, the other more pessimistic), keeping into account both
domestic and external factors.
2) Current and future functioning of the socio-economic system. What are
the main features of the socio-economic system of your country (or group of
countries)? Describe what are the current and future “engines” of
development. (Who is doing what and how to make these engines work?
What is the role that external factors may play? Is the situation drastically
going to change in the medium-long term? )
3) Prospects for food security. Which prospects (challenges) do you see for
Food and Nutrition Security in the short, medium and long run? Can you
identify possible dos and donts to ensure FNS in the long run? Explain,
possibly with reference to the features of the socio-economic system.
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Useful references
Alexandratos, Nikos and Jelle Bruinsma (2012), “World Agriculture
Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision,” ESA Working Paper, No.
12-03, June, FAO, Rome.
Bellù, Lorenzo Giovanni (2011). Development and Development
Paradigms. A (reasoned) review of prevailing visions. FAO EASYPol
series n. 102 www.fao.org/easypol
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