FAO/WFP Crop and Food
Security Assessment
Republic of Moldova
August 2007
Average monthly air temperature
(°C) in 1946 and 2007
Source: State Hydrometeorological Service
Chisinau
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
-5,0
-10,0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
1946
VII
VIII
2007
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
IX
X
XI
XII
Precipitation quantity (mm)
in 1946 and 2007
Source: State Hydrometeorological Service
Chisinau
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
1946
VII
VIII
2007
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
IX
X
XI
XII
NDVI - June 2nd Dekad – Romania
Source: GIEWS Workstation
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
NDVI – June 2nd Dekad, Ukraine
Source: GIEWS Workstation
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
NDVI - June 2nd Dekad, Moldova
Source: GIEWS Workstation
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Growing Conditions

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Sept ’06 – July 07 rainfall 50-75% of
normal overall
In some southern and central areas, only
25% of normal rainfall
Peak temperatures 3-4 degrees> normal
Soil moisture 1/3 of normal
Comes after the 2003 drought, and dry
weather in the south during 2005/06
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Impact on Agricultural Production
Crop
Total area 2006
Total production
2006
Total Area
2007
(000) ha
(000) tons
(000) ha
Estimated
production
2007
2007 as %
of 2006
(000) tons
Winter wheat
290.2
968
305
431.2
44.5
Winter barley
39.4
73.4
54
71.03
96.8
Spring barley
69.3
126.7
72.3
63.6
50.2
Peas
17.8
33.8
17.5
12.1
35.8
Corn
459.3
1322.2
481.3
364.6
27.6
Sunflower
287.4
379.9
231.6
108.5
28.6
Sugarbeet
42.4
1173
34.6
566
48.3
Soya
55.7
79.8
50.5
37.2
46.6
3.5
4.9
3.1
1.6
32.7
Tobacco
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Impact on Agriculture – Livestock
(lack of pasture, feed, low incomes)



Opportunity cost of lost production, at market
prices, nearly 300 mln euros for cereal crops
only
De-stocking of 1/3 to ½ of household cattle
holdings depending on area
Loss to the livestock sector, esp cattle: NPV
value of flow of benefits (milk, offspring,
growing out weight) likely larger than for crops
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Impact on Rural Households






Lower or no returns to land
Much less food from home garden production
Loss of savings, food and income from liquidated
family livestock
Increased food expenditures, at higher nominal
prices
Higher prices for other basic requirements
(energy, gas, heating, etc.)
Reduction in foreign market share and income
for wine and spirits
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Trade and Food Balance Position



Percent coverage of imports by exports:
from 56.3% in 2003 to 39% in 2006
Deficit can be made up from commercial
imports
Main problem: access by poor households
with less of their own production (land,
home gardens, livestock), facing either
prices
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Financial losses/Indebtedness





Financial sector: highly capitalized, lends little to
the ag sector, can finance the next season
Very small farms: borrow very little
Small associations NFFM, own funds, relatives,
Larger associations, LLCs will have to reimburse
partially and reschedule debt to banks, S&Ls,
Input suppliers
Producers have borne most of the risk of
exposure to disaster
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Short-term (Emergency) Measures






Heavily producer-subsidized inputs for Winter
crops (October planting), including forage crops
Livestock feed/concentrate to avoid further
destocking
Tax relief: land, rural economic activities, import
duties
Expanded social protection programs (allowances,
school meals, use of school canteens for the
vulnerable)
Cash-for-public works
Fortification of domestic/imported wheat against
iron deficiency
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Medium-term Measures






Reconstitution of household livestock assets
(diversification, e.g. rabbits)
Plant genetic material: choice, selection, multiplication,
risk-mitigation (e.g. red sorghum for livestock feed)
Proper emphasis on diversification, adaptation, and
extension to home garden food production
Improved access to water resources for home gardens,
including appropriate low-cost pumps, other
technologies
Better use of water resources for home garden food
production, including rainwater harvesting
Use of information for food security monitoring, early
warning
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
Long-term Measures (start now!)



Components of a sustainable ag sector
strategy: crop mix, varietal selection,
protection of the resource base, efficient
use of water resources
Financial sector reform - integrated with:
Agricultural insurance sector reform
FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007
MOLDOVA – Logistics Options
• Entry points
• Ports
• Rail & Road options
• Storage
• Roads
• Milling
• Implementing partner
Balti
Chisinau
ROMANIA
Odessa
Cahul
Reni
FAO/WFP
CFSAM - August 2007
Thank you!
Questions and comments
welcome