Microsimulation in the UK: the
current state of play
Dr Paul Williamson
Dept. of Geography
University of Liverpool
Current MSM in the UK: an overview
Model
Multiple
Multiple
OPERA
MOSES
SCOTSIM
SAGEMOD
SimBritain
EUROMOD
Lawson
Anderson
S-Paramics
SimDELTA
SOCSIM
CARESIM
FEARLUS
ADaPT
?
?
Institution
DWP
Treasury
PPI
IFS
Stirling
Leeds
Liverpool
Southampton
Sheffield
Essex
Essex
Essex
SIAS
DSC
LSE
UEA
MLURI
Southampton
York
Leeds
Static
X
X
Dynamic
X
X
X
ABM
X
X
X
X
X
Tax-benefit Demographic
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Other
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Public
X
X
X
VARIABLES
Variable
Name
Automatic
Label
sys_var_name
sys_label
bch
bch_s
bch00
bch00_s
bchab
bchba
bchba_s
bchdi_s
bchdied_s
bched_s
bchlg_s
bchlp
bchlp_s
bchlp00_s
bchmt_s
bchnm_s
bchot
bchpl
bchunlp
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
benefit
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
child
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
simulated
main/basic
main/basic : simulated
abroad
birth/adoption
birth/adoption : simulated
disability-invalidity : simulated
disability-invalidity : education : simulated
education : simulated
large family : simulated
lone parent
lone parent : simulated
lone parent : main/basic : simulated
means-tested : simulated
not means-tested : simulated
other
parental leave
unemployment : lone parent
IT
EE
HU
child allowances -(total)
child allowance (lapsetoetus)
child allowance (lapsetoetus)
child allowance abroad
childbirth allowance
(sünnitoetus)
childbirth allowance
(sünnitoetus)
school allowance- (koolitoetus)
large family allowance
(kolme- ja
single parent child
- allowance (üks
regular child prote
family allowance (
Child benefit (Assegno
per famiglia
- con almeno 3 f
-
8
Townsend Scores
for Output Areas
(Knowsley)
6
4
CO-based
2
-10
0
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
-4
-6
-8
Census-based
% of non-fitting synthetic combinations
PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS
Distribution
SEG / Household
composition
SEG / Rooms
Household composition /
Dependants
Dependants / Tenure
Sex / marital status /
tenure
Illness / sex
Rural
(South
West)
‘Middling
England’
(East
Mids.)
Deprived
industrial
(North)
Deprived
urban
(Outer
London)
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
0
1.5
0
1.5
0
3.0
0
1.5
0
0
Synthetically
estimated spatial
microdata
8
Telephony: 2005/6
•
•
Simulated household weekly telephone bill
(landlines) (FES 2005/6)
EEDA, LSOA level
•
•
Ward level comparison with BT billing
data (EEDA, Ward level)
Spearman rho = 0.7796, p < 0.001
•
Validation:
–
–
(Spearman rho = 0.8404, p < 0.001)
Strong correlation with Census 2001
‘work time’
Simulated ‘work time’
ONS Time-Use Survey (2001) and Census 2001
East of England, LSOA
2001
2011
parliamentary constituencies
8.388 - 9.544
9.544 - 10.147
10.147 - 10.693
10.693 - 11.417
11.417 - 12.527
N
parliamentary constituencies
8.388 - 9.544
9.544 - 10.147
10.147 - 10.693
10.693 - 11.417
11.417 - 12.527
W
E
parliamentary constituencies
3.86 - 4.517
4.517S- 8.354
8.354 - 10.022
10.022 - 12.29
12.29 - 15.4
% More happy than usual
N
W
E
W
N
E
Happiness & Life Events
Event
Correlation
Top 5 negative associations
Relationships (mine ending)
-0.178
Death (parent)
-0.166
Healthparent
-0.139
Death (other)
-0.137
Employment job loss
-0.129
Top Five positive associations
Relationships (mine starting)
0.160
Employment job gain
0.097
Finance (house)
0.097
Pregnancy (mine)
0.084
Pregnancy (child's)
0.053
OPERA
(1) Costs (% disposable income) of various Local Tax structures
(2) Change in costs given changing Dementia prevalence
MOSES
Deterministic
reweighting
Maps
Simulated
annealing
Reports
Data
Monte Carlo/
Synthesis
Dynamic
model
etc
Statistics
GA (MoSeS)
Regression
method
Workflow
Research
Object
Portlet
‘Conventional’ migration distribution
procedure
Simulation
Database
1
Migrant
generation
model
5
2
Update
Location and
Dwelling
Characteristics
2
Aggregate
To Migrant
Population
Aggregate
To Vacant
Dwellings
3
Spatial Interaction Model
4
Compute
dwelling
preference
for each
migrant
ABM in MOSES
Observed
MSM
ABM
Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour
ABM v. MSM?
Individual Desires and Collective Outcomes
% Similar Achieved (Social)
120
100
80
60
% similar
% unhappy
40
20
0
0
50
100
-20
% Similar Wanted (Individual)
150
The Global Epidemic
Simulator
Millions
New Cases
t1
t2
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
125
250
375
500
Days
t3
625
750
875
t4
Modelling Needs and Resources of Older
People to 2030 (MAP2030)
SOCSIM
Average number of living grand children and
grand parents (complete)
CARESIM: adding new cohort of
people now aged 45-64
age
100 +
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2007
Need to
simulate
pensions &
retirement
2012
2017
NEW sample members
2022
2027
2032
sample members
ACTUAL
year
simulation
2037
2042
2047
CONCLUSION
In a number of fields UK MSM is world-leading
Challenges
All models
Maintenance/updating/upgrading/validation
Increased collaboration
Increasing user base
Academic models
Greater public policy influence
SPARES
- Standard Excel sheets
used to define the model
GENESIS Model Engine
Simulation
Model
parameter
sheets (Excel)
SAS Static
code
SAS Base
Data
generates SAS model
and runs the simulation
SAS postsimulation
Data
- SAS chosen for the model engine and the output data,
as SAS is the standard data analysis tool used
Behavioural Labour Supply Modelling
Household Income (yh )
U
h*=maxh U= U( h, yh | X )
Hours of labour supplied by household (h)
S-Paramics
FEARLUS – Land use model (ABM)
Yellow: actual forestry
Green: suitable for forestry
Red: ownership boundaries
Land use is based on more
than suitability and (simple)
economics
i.e. Sociological factors
(owner preferences)
• e.g. Grouse shooting
FEARLUS-W
Land use
selection
Land Uses
Estimated
Yield
Calculation
of Return
Climate
£
Market Conditions
Land use
Estimated Social
Acceptability
Neighbours’
Approval/Disapproval
Social
Interactions
Biophysical
properties
Yearly
Cycle
Return
Pollution
Before
After
Land
sales
Year 12
Year 14
With Social Approval
No Reward
Year 16
Year 17
SimDELTA – model processes
Transport test:
M18 spur
New junction