Estimating future household
formation
Monday 16th December 2013
London School of Economics
Long term trend in household size
• Census 2011 found
more people but
fewer households
than expected.
• No fall in household
size, despite ageing
population
• What were the
changes?
• A new trend or a
blip?
Source: Christine Whitehead, LSE and CCHPR, October 2013
2 2
Differences between Trend Projection and
Actual Change 2001 – 2011
Couples with one or more other
adults
Other multi-persons households
+583,000
One-person households
-988,000
Total difference (excluding impact of
higher population)
- 74,000
+331,000
Source: Christine Whitehead, LSE and CCHPR, October 2013, who
noted that all ages are involved in these changes.
3
Candidate causes of changed
household formation
• Age structure?
– eg. Elderly: smaller households; men living longer; care in the community.
• Immigration?
– Recent immigrants form fewer households during their first years;
• Housing market, personal income?
– lack of affordability deters entrants to housing market
• Educational finance
– Delays leaving home
• Benefits changes?
– Cap deters large households
– Bedroom tax encourages large households
• Temporary (5 years) or structural (twenty years)
Projections of households of each type =
population projections x household formation
rates projected for each household type
• Scotland and England
– Future households of type t = sum over all ages (sex,
marital status, couple status):
Future household population by age
x Future household representative rate for type t
• Wales and Northern Ireland
– Future households of type t = [sum over all ages:
Future household population by age
x Future household membership rate for type t]
/ average household size of type t
The political economy of household
projections
• House-building requires permission
• Permission involves regulation of land release
• Land release is argued through a balance of
social/environmental factors and housing
need
• Housing need is estimated from projections
of households
Newly arising demand and need for housing in
England, 2011-31
(thousands) (Whitehead)
Total
Net increase in households
Second homes*
Vacant dwellings*
Households sharing dwellings
Concealed families
Net increase in dwellings
Annual average
+4,491
+240
+135
+/-?
+/-?
4,866
243
Household projection
Relatively minor allowances?
Housing land needed
Source: Adapted from Christine Whitehead, LSE and CCHPR, October
2013
7
Comments
• Allocation of housing land allocation affects all services
– Needs of the population in new housing
• National need for housing => decisions over where the land
is made available
– Major players: local residents, housing developers
• Household formation estimates reflect effective housing
demand
– Should household projections reflect need or demand for
housing?
– How should projectionists advise their projections are used?
• Revision after census has been too great, though foreseen
– How to reduce it in future?