Population
Population Geography
 Distribution of World Population
 Population Statistics
 Population Pyramids
 Demographic Transition Theory
 Population Control
 Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)
Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a
unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2;
Australia = 7/mi2
Physiological Density – the total number of people per
a unit of arable (farmable) land.
World and Country Population Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's
surface!
Total: 6 billion on planet as of Oct. 12, 1999
Current Population Counter
Five most populous regions and countries
REGION
 East Asia




POPULATION COUNTRY
1.5 billion
South Asia 1.2 billion
Europe
750 million
SE Asia
500 million
East N. Am.120 million
China
India
U.S.
Indonesia
Brazil
POPULATION
1.254 billion
986 million
274 million
206 million
168 million
Rates of Natural Increase
NIR Formula
CBR – CDR=NIR
Example: 20 (CBR)-5 (CDR)=15 per
1,000 or
1.5%
ALWAYS EXPRESSED AS A PERCENT!!!
Total Fertility Rate TFR - the average
number of children a women will have in
her childbearing years. This rate varies
from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7
(Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2.
Palestinian
Territories
1975-1980
7.39
1980-1985
7.00
1985-1990
6.43
1990-1995
6.46
1995-2000
5.99
2000-2005
5.57
Total
fertility
rate
U.K.
2.1 is generally regarded as the
replacement rate (the rate at
which a population neither grows
nor shrinks) in the developed
world. In less developed countries
this rate should be higher to
account for so many children not
reaching childbearing age.
Fertility
Rate
1975-1980
1.72
1980-1985
1.80
1985-1990
1.81
1990-1995
1.78
1995-2000
1.70
2000-2005
1.66
Africa
Fertility
Rate
1975-1980
6.60
1980-1985
6.45
1985-1990
6.11
1990-1995
5.67
1995-2000
5.26
2000-2005
4.97
Infant Mortality Rate IMR – the number of deaths of children under the age
of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore,
Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over
6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek
“insurance” for the loss of children.
Family Planning Programs
 One family/one child policies
 Female infanticide
 Social compensation fees
 Sterilization
 Loss of status
 Termination healthcare/food coupons
 Free birth control
 Increased literacy and education
Demographic Transition Model
Demographic Transition Model
 Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural)
 Crude birth/death rate high
 Several spikes and drops in CBR/CDR
 Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine)
 Lower death rates
 Infant mortality rate falls
 Natural increase very high
 Stage three (Social change)
 Indicative of richer developed countries
 Higher standards of living/education
 Crude birth rate finally falls
 Stage four
 Crude birth/death rates low
 Population stable
 Populations aging
3 reasons for stage changes
Agricultural
Revolution
Occurred around 8000
B.C.
Humans began to farm
and establish ecumene
Famine, droughts and
wars kept CBR and CDR
unstable
Industrial
Revolution
Medical
Revolution
Occurred in 1750
 Late 20th century
Improvement in industrial
technology
Helped LDCs enter stage
2
Increased wealth, sanitary
conditions, agricultural
production
Increased CBR and
decreased CDR
Led to higher CBR and
lower CDR
Improved life expectancy
Immunizations, anitbiotics
Change from stage 2 to stage 3
Technology
Economic
•Medical technology allows • People live in urban areas
for CBR and CDR to
with less room
decrease
•People work in offices or
•Infant mortality rate
factories
declines
•Kids are not economics
assets to their parents
•No child labor in urban
cities
Social
•Women enter labor force
•Access to birth control
methods
•Increased wealth and
leisure time
•No need to reproduce
Cape Verde Stage 2
 Remained in stage 1 until 1950
Still in stage 2 for several reasons
Famine
Fluctuating CBR and CDR
Long term effects of fluctuation
Medical revolution
Chile Stage 3
o Changed from an agricultural society to an industrial society
oMoved to stage 2 because of medical revolution
oMoved to stage 3 because of government family planning policies in
1966. Reduced incomes and high employment postponed marriage
and childbearing
oWill not move into stage 4 because Chile has reversed policy and
most Chileans are Roman Catholic who do not believe in artificial
birth control methods
Denmark Stage 4
 Increasingly high number of elderly
CBR is declining while CDR is rising
CDR will continue to rise unless a new medical revolution
takes place
Denmark has a column population pyramid that is top heavy
with the elderly
•Stage 2 countries have a dependency ratio of 1:1
•10:1 for younger dependants
•Stage 4 countries have a dependency ratio of 2:1
•Elderly and young are roughly equal
More than ¼ government expenditures are on the elderly in
stage 3 and 4 countries
Women outnumber men in most MDCs
Countries with high immigration have more males
Retirement communities have more women than men
Population Pyramids are effected by ethnic compositions
Italy, 2000
AGE
4
80+ yrs.
75-79 yrs.
3
70-74 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
Males(%)
Females(%)
60-64 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
5
2
30-34 yrs.
25-29 yrs
20-24 yrs
15-19 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
1
5-9 yrs.
0-4 yrs.
10
8
6
4
2
0
PERCENT
2
4
6
8
10
Analysis of Italy’s
Population Pyramid
 1. Decline in Birth Rate
 2. Baby Boom
 3. Fewer men due to World War I and II
 4. More women due to: a. longer life expectancy and b.
World Wars (I and II)
 5. More 75-79 yrs than 0-4 yrs. Signs of a future worker
shortage and an overall declining population.
Thomas Malthus on Population
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
Malthus predicted population
would outrun food supply,
leading to a decrease in food
per person.
300
250
200
Population
150
Assumptions
 Populations grow exponentially.
 Food supply grows arithmetically.
 Food shortages and chaos inevitable.
Food
100
50
0
1
2
3
Food
2
4
8
16
4
Population
2
4
16
256
Neo Malthusians People who support Malthus’
original hypothesis but tweaked the theory
 Malthus failed to include LDCs in his
theory
 LDCs entered stage 2 not because of
wealth but because of medical
revolution
 Overpopulation affects not just food
production but also other resources
 Population will continue to rise in
LDCs therefore people will be fighting
over resources not just food
Critics of Malthus
 Possibilism allows for
 Higher population for
humans to change
environment
 Larger population
stimulates economic
growth and ideas
 Marxists believe poverty
and hunger are a result of
unjust social institutions
national defense (armies)
 Capitalism creates
unequal access to
resources
Declining Birth Rates
 The only way to stop
overpopulation is to
control the CBR of LCDs
 Reasons for decline are
lower CBR or higher CDR
 Two ways to lower CBR
 Increased economic
development provides
better education and health
care
 Distribution of
contraceptives and
education about family
planning
Epidemiological Transition
 Stage 1 Pestilence and
famine
 Black Plaque
 Stage 2 Pandemics
 Cholera
 Stage 3 degenerative
diseases
 Cardiovascular disease,
heart attacks
 Stage 4 delayed stage 3
because of medical
technology
 Possible stage 5 reemergence
of stage 1 (infectious and
parasitic diseases)
 Evolution of diseases, poverty
and increased travel
 Malaria, TB and SARS
Summary
 Overpopulation is a
 Countries experience
relationship between the
size of the population and a
region’s level of resources
 CBR must be reduced in
order to curb global
population growth
different population and
epidemiological transitions
 Malthus was only partly
correct
 LDCs increasing
populations make up for
MDCs declining
populations