Census 2000: Growing Together or Apart?
California’s Regions
Hans Johnson
Public Policy Institute of California
johnson@ppic.org
PPIC
1
Outline
 The California Context
 Regional Population Trends
 Characteristics of the Population
PPIC
2
California Population 1900-2000
(in thousands)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, California Department of Finance
PPIC
3
Comparisons of Population Change
1950=100
400
350
300
250
200
150
United States
100
50
19
50
19
54
19
58
19
62
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
0
PPIC
4
Comparisons of Population Change
1950=100
400
350
300
250
Mexico
200
150
United States
100
50
19
50
19
54
19
58
19
62
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
0
PPIC
5
Comparisons of Population Change
1950=100
400
350
300
250
200
150
Mexico
California
United States
100
50
19
50
19
54
19
58
19
62
19
66
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
0
PPIC
6
California Population by Race/Ethnicity
1970-2000
White
Hispanic
Asian/Other
African American
Mulitracial
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1970
1980
Source: United States Census Bureau
1990
2000
PPIC
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Percent Foreign Born 1900-2000
25
20
California
United States
15
10
5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
PPIC
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Latin America is the
Leading Source of Immigrants
Latin America
4,697,000
(55%)
Asia
2,915,000
(34%)
Europe
655,000 ( 8%)
Northern America
129,000
Africa
107,000
Oceania
68,000
Source: 2000 Census Supplemental Survey
PPIC
9
Immigrants Come to California
from Dozens of Countries
MEXICO
INDIA
IRAN
PHILIPPINES
GUATEMALA
JAPAN
VIETNAM
TAIWAN
GERMANY
EL SALVADOR
CANADA
HONG KONG
CHINA
KOREA
ENGLAND
SOUTH KOREA
LAOS
PERU
ARGENTINA
ROMANIA
PAKISTAN
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
MYANMAR
COLOMBIA
NICARAGUA
RUSSIA
BRAZIL
CUBA IRAQ
INDONESIA
HONDURAS
CAMBODIA
U.K.
ITALY
PORTUGAL
THAILAND
FRANCE
AUSTRALIA
TURKEY
GREECE
IRELAND
ETHIOPIA
ECUADOR
LEBANON
SCOTLAND
JAMAICA
PANAMA
CZECH REP.
ISRAEL
SOUTH AFRICA
BOSNIA & H.
BELIZE
HUNGARY
NIGERIA
NETHERLANDS
SPAIN
SWEDEN
BELARUS
POLAND
COSTA RICA
BOLIVIA
SYRIA
CHILE
JORDAN
FIJI
AFGHANISTAN
EGYPT
Source: 2000 Census Supplementary Survey
PPIC
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Source of Growth has Changed
Annual Population Change 1950-2000 (in thousands)
1000
NET MIGRATION
NATURAL INCREASE
800
600
400
200
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
-200
-400
PPIC
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Net Migration to California
1970-1999 (in thousands)
600
400
200
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
0
-200
-400
International
Domestic
-600
Source: California Department of Finance, unofficial estimates to 1980;
Public Policy Institute of California 1980-1993; DOF 1993-1999 with CB for international migration
PPIC
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Domestic Migration is Determined by
Economic Conditions
(1.5)
(2.0)
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
90
91
19
(100)
(200)
Unemployment rate in rest of
U.S. less California
unemployment rate (left scale)
Net domestic migration (in
thousands, right scale)
(300)
(400)
(2.5)
(500)
(3.0)
(600)
Net domestic migration (thousands)
(1.0)
19
89
19
88
19
87
19
86
19
19
19
19
19
19
(0.5)
85
-
84
-
83
100
82
0.5
81
200
80
1.0
19
U.S. minus California unemployment rates
Unemployment Rate Differences and
Net Domestic Migration Follow the Same Pattern
PPIC
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Projections for California Diverge Widely
DOF 98
CB Preferred
CB Alternative
BEA
UCLA
CCSCE Medium
CCSCE High
CCSCE Low
Total population projections for California
70,000
65,000
60,000
Population
55,000
(000)
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
PPIC
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Outline
 The California Context
 Regional Population Trends
 Characteristics of the Population
PPIC
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Defining California Regions:
Geographic Building Blocks
PPIC
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Changing Regional Definitions: The Bay Area
1963
1983
1981
2003?
PPIC
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Defining California’s Regions:
California in Two
Inland California
Central
and Northern
California
Coastal California
Southern California
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Regional Definitions: California Divided by Nine
Far North
Sacramento Metro
Sierras
Bay Area
San Joaquin Valley
Central
Coast
Inland Empire
South Coast
San Diego
PPIC
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The View from San Francisco
the hinterlands
The City
PPIC
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California’s Regions if States:
Area and Population of California’s Regions
Area and Population
Land area
2000 Population
population per square
mile
Area equivalent
Population
equivalent
South Coast
6,696
13,118,824
1,959
Hawaii
Illinois
Bay Area
6,923
6,783,760
980
New Jersey
Virginia
San Joaquin
Valley
27,276
3,302,792
121
South Carolina
Oregon
Inland Empire
27,260
3,254,821
119
West Virginia
Connecticut
San Diego
8,375
2,956,194
353
Massachussetts
Iowa
Sacramento
Metro
5,094
1,796,857
353
Connecticut
New Mexico
Idaho
Central Coast
11,198
1,356,626
121
Maryland and
Delaware
Far North
43,853
1,122,483
26
Pennsylvania
Hawaii
9
Vermont and New
Hamphsire
Guam
Sierras
19,286
179,291
PPIC
21
Regional Population Distribution:
North and South Maintaining Shares
California's Populaltion Distribution: North and Central vs. South
100%
80%
60%
Northern and
Central California
Southern
California
40%
20%
0%
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
PPIC
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Regional Population Distribution:
Inland Areas Increasing Share
100%
80%
60%
Inland California
Coastal California
40%
20%
0%
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
PPIC
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Relatively Slow Growth in Coastal Regions
Percent Change by Decade
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
1980-1990
1990-2000
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Fa
rN
or
th
B
ay
A
re
C
en
a
tr
al
C
oa
st
So
ut
h
C
oa
st
Sa
n
D
ie
go
St
at
e
0%
PPIC
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Relatively Fast Growth in Inland Regions
Percent Change by Decade
66%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jo
aq
u
Em
pi
re
in
o
Sa
n
en
t
In
la
nd
M
et
Va
lle
y
ro
er
ra
s
Si
Sa
cr
am
St
at
e
1980-1990
1990-2000
PPIC
25
Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:
Coastal Regions
Natural Increase
Net international migration
Net domestic migration
Rate per thousand residents
150
100
50
0
State
-50
Far
North
Bay
Area
Central
Coast
South
Coast
San
Diego
-100
-150
PPIC
26
Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:
Inland Regions
Natural Increase
Net international migration
Net domestic migration
150
50
Em
pi
re
in
Jo
aq
u
In
la
nd
Va
lle
y
M
et
ro
o
Sa
n
-150
en
t
-100
Sa
cr
am
-50
Si
er
ra
s
0
St
at
e
Rate per thousand residents
100
PPIC
27
Sa
n
Sa
n
o
en
t
et
M
ro
Em
pi
re
So
ut
h
C
oa
st
er
ra
s
25%
Si
D
Jo
ie
go
aq
ui
n
Va
lle
y
B
ay
A
re
a
Fa
rN
or
C
en
th
tr
al
C
oa
st
Sa
cr
am
In
la
nd
Jobs and Population Growth:
Percent Change 1990-2000
30%
Jobs
Population
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
PPIC
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St
at
e
C
oa
st
Sa
n
Si
Jo
er
aq
ra
s
ui
n
Va
In
lle
la
nd
y
Em
pi
re
Fa
rN
C
or
en
th
tr
Sa
al
cr
C
am
oa
st
en
to
M
et
ro
Sa
n
D
ie
go
B
ay
A
re
a
So
ut
h
Jobs:Population Imbalance
New Jobs per 1,000 New Residents, 1990-2000
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
PPIC
29
Housing and Population Growth
Percent Change in Housing Units and Population, 1990-2000
30%
25%
Housing Units
Population
20%
15%
10%
5%
in
Jo
aq
u
Si
er
ra
s
Sa
n
D
ie
go
B
ay
A
re
C
en
a
tr
al
C
oa
st
Fa
rN
or
th
So
ut
h
C
oa
st
Va
lle
y
ro
et
M
o
Sa
n
en
t
Sa
cr
am
In
la
nd
Em
pi
re
0%
PPIC
30
Accommodating Population Growth:
Percent of Population Growth Accommodated by Existing Housing Units,
1990-2000
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
-30%
St
at
e
A
re
a
Em
pi
C
en
re
tr
al
C
oa
st
S
Sa
an
n
D
Jo
ie
go
aq
ui
Sa
n
Va
cr
am
lle
y
en
to
M
et
ro
Si
er
ra
s
Fa
rN
or
th
So
-20%
In
la
nd
ut
h
-10%
B
ay
C
oa
st
0%
-40%
PPIC
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Outline
 The California Context
 Regional Population Trends
 Characteristics of the Population
PPIC
32
PPIC
33
er
ra
s
St
at
e
Fa
Sa
rN
cr
am
or
th
en
to
M
In
et
la
ro
nd
Sa
Em
n
Jo
pi
aq
re
ui
n
Va
C
lle
en
y
tr
al
C
oa
st
Sa
n
D
ie
go
B
ay
A
So
re
a
ut
h
C
oa
st
Si
Percent Foreign Born, 2000
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
PPIC
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Poverty Rate by County, 1999
Very High (20+)
High (15-19.9)
Moderate (10-14.9)
Low (<10)
PPIC
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Per Capita Income Rank
of California Metropolitan Areas
San Francisco
San Jose
Oakland
Orange County
Santa Cruz-Watsonville
Santa Rosa
Ventura
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria
Salinas
San Diego
Sacramento
Los Angeles-Long Beach
Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa
Yolo (Davis-Woodland)
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles
Redding
Riverside-San Bernardino
Modesto
Chico-Paradise
Stockton-Lodi
Fresno
Bakersfield
Yuba City
Visalia-Tulare-Porterville
Merced
1
4
18
25
30
32
58
59
68
78
92
100
122
124
147
253
272
280
284
285
298
304
305
308
312
PPIC
36
Growing Apart:
Regional Per Capita Income Relative to State
(100 = State PCI)
140
Bay Area
130
South Coast
120
Central Coast
110
San Diego
100
Sacramento Metro
90
80
Sierras
Far North
Inland Empire
70
San Joaquin Valley
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
60
PPIC
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PPIC
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