What's Happening In the Global Consciousness Project? An overview of analytical findings and recent developments Roger Nelson, Director Peter Bancel, Principal Analyst Global Consciousness Project http://noosphere.princeton.edu Structure Where there should be none There is “some there there” Odds less than 1 in 1,000,000 Two independent measures Correlated response to events Distance structure Time structure Psychological structure Data anomalies vs selection A sampling of explorations A World Spanning Network of REGs (EGGs) Google Map of nodes http://noosphere.princeton.edu/egghosts/ Internet transfer of data to Princeton It looks random: Combined data For a whole day, about 60 eggs We can see better what’s happening by Plotting cumulative deviations (2 - df) Average cumulative deviation shown by the black dotted line Formal tests: First identify major events Then ask if there is a trend of accumulating deviations Figures show sequential history of a sample of Data collected in a pre-defined time period The test statistic is the terminal value September 11 2001 Destruction of the World Trade Towers A 50-hour trend followed the attacks Two days Synchronized Meditation Half a million people aroud the world New Years Eve 1999-2008 (10 years 37 time zones) Average Variance Decrease Concatenate almost 10 years of formal data 250 rigorously defined global events Odds: Million to 1 against chance Small effect: The average Z-score is about 0.35 Independent Statistics First order, S1, is called Netvar Second order, S2, is called Covar S1: S2: Event data contain Highly significant correlations S1+S2 S1 S2 Control data, 1000 Resamplings of Database Independent Measures Simulate Netvar with average effect Calculate Covar for same “events” Blue = random Netvar Red = random Covar Time structure: Sliding the “event” away From the actual event time produces Drop-off for both Netvar and Covar Dispersion = Netvar+Covar Event +/- 15 days Correlated measures Blue = Network Variance Red = Global Covariance Time structure Correlation of two independent measures Z-scores maximal for events ~ 1-2 hours What might explain this? Distance Structure Independent measures, distance scale Both are driven by inter-reg correlation Blue: pair-product data in 1000 km bins Red: simulation in 7 event pseudo-sets Green line: regression fit to real data Blue line: regression fit simulation data Yellow: weighting for regression Psychology: Netvar and Covar Response Differs for Categories of events Blue = Netvar Red = Covar Gold = Relative DF Netvar and Covar Response Correlation in “Super” Categories Blue = Netvar Red = Covar Green = Correlation Gold = Relative DF ANOVA Interaction: Statistic x Category Event Data Blue = Netvar Red = Covar Simulation Data 2-Way ANOVA: Netvar and Covar Statistic by Category Interaction Data Sort P-value 3 categories 0.008 6 categories 0.057 6 cats + astro 0.042 6 cats +wcup 0.039 6 + astro + wcup 0.028 Daily Rhythm? Only exact 24 hour “day” shows Evidence of correlation with consciousness Explorations Explorations Long term trend suggests Searching for external correlates Social variable: Presidential Approval Raw Approval Rating 2 Parameter model fit F = a (value) + b (slope) Red = polls Blue = data Red = polls Blue = data It is important to remember this is a correlation. There is no assertion of causation. All Earthquakes, Richter 6 or More Cumulative Deviation of Covariance Quakes on Land +/- 30 hours Consciousness implied Premonition suggested Controls (no humans affected) Ocean Quakes +/- 30 hours Same trend, independent subsets Begin early ~ 8 hours before quake GCP/EGG Project The people who make it go International collaboration of 100 Scientists, Artists, Friends, … Peter Bancel, Paris, professional analysis, collaboration William Treurniet, Canada, egganalysis programming John Walker, Switzerland, programming, general support Richard & Connie Adams, USA, general support Paul Bethke, USA, windows programming, network Dick Bierman, Netherlands, design and realtime display Dean Radin, USA, design and independent analysis Brad Anderson, USA, widget programming Taylor Jackson, Canada, realtime display maintenance Greg & Lefty Nelson, USA, program architecture, general support Fernando Rodríguez, Spain, egghosts google map Leane Roffey, USA, music, outreach, general support Jaroen Ruuward, Netherlands, realtime programming Dick Shoup, USA, independent analysis Nishith Singh, India, realtime programming Mahadeva Srinivasan, India, general support … And all the EGG hosts around the world