資本市場改革與
全球化趨勢
朱雲鵬
行政院政務委員
台灣金融與經濟情勢研討會
1
2008.5.30
Outlines
I
Globalization of the financial sector
II Review of the development of Taiwan’s capital
market and the financial industry
III Challenges
IV Responses
2
I.
Globalization of the financial
sector
A. “Get global, get specialized, or get out“
B. The “Big Bang”
C. Financial centers are booming.
D. Global investment banks are ever more aggressive.
E. US capital market is losing its competitiveness.
3
A.Get global. Get Specialized. Or get out.
Unexpected lessons in global financial markets
IBM Global Business Service, 2007

In collaboration with the Economist Intelligence unit, this
IBM report develops and uses a model and have used it to
trace the effect of globalization across 35 of the world’s
largest economies.

The report also surveyed 848 financial markets executives
from around the globe and 107 of their corporate clients.
4
Summary of Findings

Financial markets firms have historically avoided the
commoditization trap by innovating to create new products
and services; the bulk of their impressive growth has
typically come from mature markets.

Yet today, growth opportunities in those geographies are
evaporating, and meaningful future expansion will come
from new markets. Indeed, the worldwide industry
opportunity is expected to double by 2015.

But which firms will seize these emerging profit pools?
The report believes it will be those that specialize in the
areas their clients value while optimizing their global reach,
and do both in ways that aren’t expected.
5
Source: IBM Global Business Service, 2007.
6
7
Source: IBM Global Business Service, 2007
Key Element to Success or Failure 1:
Talents
8
Source: IBM Global Business Service, 2007
Key Element 2: IT infrastructure
For a robust financial market, economies must also have the
vital information and communications technology
infrastructure.
According to annual e-readiness rankings of the world’s 35
largest economies, global e-readiness grew at a 7-percent
CAGR from 2001 to 2006, which is faster that worldwide
GDP. On a scale of one to five, worldwide e-readiness was
judged to be 3.27, largely led by developed markets.
At the top of the scale were Switzerland (4.9), the United
Kingdom (4.8) and the United States (4.6). India fell in the
middle of the pack at 3.1. And China (2.6), Ukraine (2.6),
Russia (2.4) and Iran (1.7) ranked lowest.
9
Key Element 3: Trading Volume
Economies must also have a sizable liquidity pool to support
continued future growth of the capital markets.
Based on our analysis of velocity, the ratio of trading volume to
market capitalization over the past ten years, it is clear that
liquidity is increasing globally. In 1995, the ratio for Europe, the
Middle East and Africa was under 70 percent; but by 2005, it had
more than doubled to 145 percent. Asia’s ratio grew from 41
percent in 1995 to 75 percent in 2005.
And even with a much higher overall volume of trading, the
Americas’ ratio increased from 75 percent in 1995 to nearly 130
percent as of 2005. This level of growth presents an opportunity
for broker dealers in particular, as they realize higher revenues
10
based on velocity increases across the geographies.
Source: IBM Global Business Service, 2007
11
B. The “Big Bang”

UK 1986 (London Stock Exchange): abolishing the
fixed commission charges system, more open to the
international players and a change from open-outcry
to electronic, screen-based trading (Stock Exchange
Automated Quotation system or SEAQ).

UK 1997: passage of the Financial Service and
Market Act, which combines jurisdiction of agencies
for banks, securities, insurance, futures,… into a
single Financial Services Authority.
12
Background of the London’s Big Bang
The relative decline of the status of the
British securities market
In 1985, before the implementation of the "Big
Bang," the London stock exchange's turnover
was only 1/13 of the then world's No. 1 New
York, and it was only 1/5 of the No. 2 Tokyo.
13
Reforms in October 1986
(1) Firms were permitted to act as both jobbers and brokers—
two categories that had previously been strictly segregated
(2) The opening up of membership of the stock exchange
(3) The lowering of the 1% tax on share transactions—the
equivalent of Japan’s securities transaction tax—to 0.5%.
14
Achievement after Reforms
(1) Industrial Effects
While the ratio the financial sector occupies in UK's GDP
was 13.6% in 1985 before the "Big Bang", it had risen to
17.2% in 1990, after the "Big Bang.
(2) Competitiveness of Commissions
Commission ratios on the whole achieved a standard that
was relatively low by the international standard.
(3) International Position
Capital of securities firms was strengthened in general.
London became the center of European investment
banking.
15
Japan 1996: The Financial Services Agency Created

Japan 1998-2001: The Big Bang package is a complex series of
measures (contained in a 2,132-page volume), staggered from April 1,
1998 to March 2001. The first liberalization removes barriers to
companies buying and selling, and offering investments, in foreign
currencies. By 2001 it will be theoretically possible for Japanese and
overseas-owned institutions alike to perform banking, insurance, stock
brokering and investment services in yen or any other currency, with
minimal government regulation.

"Japan is not doing enough," stated Frank Hesske, minister-counselor
and deputy head of deregulation for the European Commission in
Japan. US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky had an even
more negative view. "The new deregulation program is too vague on
key issues and often delays implementation of important regulatory
changes for several years," she said. (Source: Mike Head, the 4th
16
International)
C. Financial Centers are Booming

London, New York and Hong Kong are the world's
top three financial centers according to Economist.

Key factors:
1. Plenty of skilled people
2. Ready access to capital
3. Good infrastructure
4. Attractive regulatory and tax environments and low levels
of corruption
5. Location and the use of English
17
Although New York and London are pre- eminent, other big
cities play important international roles of their own.







Tokyo, Sydney - financial capitals of big national markets
Hong Kong, Singapore and Dubai - the gateways to emerging regions
Geneva - private banking
Zurich and Bermuda - insurance and reinsurance
Chicago - futures and options
Qatar - infrastructure finance
Bahrain - Islamic finance
18

There are two big changes that have encouraged the
proliferation of financial centers around the globe.
1. The shift of economic activity and jobs towards China, India and
other developing countries.
2. Growing demand for natural resources from the Middle East, Russia
and parts of Latin America.

Technology is predicted would end clustering in city centers.
Armed with broadband, mobile phones and BlackBerries,
financial services could work from almost anywhere.
19
D. Global investment banks are
becoming ever more aggressive

Commercial banks such as Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase have
muscled back into investment banking. And European warhorses
such as Deutsche Bank, UBS and Credit Suisse have joined the
race for global supremacy.
Morgan
Stanley
Asia(13)
Europe
Middle East
Africa
(16)
UBS
America
(18)
Asia (12)
Europe
(over 20)
America
(over 20)
others
20
E. US’ capital market is losing its
competitiveness
The industry has been important to the US economy:

The US financial services industry contains 5 percent of private
sector jobs but produces 8.1 percent of GDP. The securities industry
contains only 0.65 percent of private-sector employment, but is
responsible for 1.4 percent of GDP.

In New York City, the securities industry accounts for 4.7 percent of
the jobs but 20.7 percent of total wages and 15.8 percent of nonproperty taxes.

In New York State overall, this industry is responsible for 2.2 percent
of the jobs, 12.5 percent of total wages, and 18.7 percent of total tax
receipts.
21
But there are signs that the U.S. public equity capital market
is losing competitiveness.
1. Increasing use of foreign markets.
2. Rising importance of private markets.
3. Cost of capital: an indicator of problems?
22
II Review of the development of Taiwan’s
capital market and the financial industry



This industry contributes 10.3 percent to Taiwan’s
overall GDP in 2006
It accounts for 4 percent of the employment in the
same year
During the 1990s, it played a pivotal role in the
rise of the IT industry which had access to vast
amounts of low-cost capital for its expansion
23
III. Challenges




Shrinking employment in the financial sector
IPO growth stagnated
Massive outflow of capital
Competition with global players of investment
banks in Asia (Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs,
Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Citigroup, UBS,…etc)
24
• Shrinking employment in the financial sector
Tough time ahead :
Employment in Taiwan’s financial industry dropped by 0.74 percent in in 2007
compared to same period last year
410
5
4.10
400
4
就業人數(千人)
成長率
390
3
3.17
380
2
1.88
370
0.25
-0.53
360
1
-0.74
350
0
-1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
25
Source : Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C
台股市值及成交值在全球交易所之排名
0
1200
1000
5
7
5
6
800
10
11
10
10
10
10
13
600
400
16
15
16
15
14
16
14
15
15
15
16
15
17
19
200
17
19
21
21
20
25
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
市值
成交值
2002
2003
市值排名
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008，Mar
成交值排名
26
Source: World Federation of Exchanges，台灣證券交易所整理
歷年上市(櫃)總家數趨勢變化圖
1400
上市家數
1200
上櫃家數
1092
1022
合計
1000
1194
1163
1245
1219
917
831
800
726
613
600
437
400
200
531
584
638
462
264
300
333
384
669
423
697
466
691
688
531
503
698
547
176
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
27
Source: 吳榮義, 「全球交易所發展趨勢與臺灣證券交易所未來展望」
近年上市IPO家數減少
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total
紐約
144
151
107
152
146
118
126
944
那斯達克
114
121
56
170
170
156
153
940
東京
93
94
120
153
99
114
68
741
香港
88
117
73
70
67
62
84
561
韓國
16
25
20
25
113
93
98
390
新加玻
37
32
60
82
68
67
76
422
上市
70
86
47
38
13
11
30
295
上櫃
97
110
83
87
56
40
40
513
合計
167
196
130
125
69
51
70
808
台灣
Source: World Federation of Exchanges
28
Number of listed companies: challenges from Hong
Kong, Shanghai, Singapore
6,000
紐 約
5,000
那斯達克
倫 敦
4,000
東 京
3,000
韓 國
香 港
2,000
新加坡
1,000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: Taiwan Stock Exchange
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008，Mar
上
海
深
圳
台 灣
29
30
Source: 吳榮義, 「全球交易所發展趨勢與臺灣證券交易所未來展望」
Massive net outflow of capital: outflow and inflow
of investments in securities
( In millions of U.S. dollars)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
證券投資（流出） 證券投資（流入）
31
Source : Central Bank of Republic Of China (Taiwan)
IV. Responses (recommended)



Laws and regulations be aligned with the
needs for international competitiveness
Deregulating and strengthening risk
governance in securities industries
Taiwan Stock Exchange becomes a
publicly-traded corporation subject to global
competition
32
THE END
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