Evangelicals, Born Agains,
and Fundamentalist Christians
in Election 2004
May 26, 2004
Source:
www.greenbergresearch.com
www.zogby.com
Two Polls

Greenberg Research



Survey of all evangelicals in America
Conducted April 5th, 2004
Zogby International


Survey of evangelicals in 16 battleground
states
Conducted between May 18th and May 23rd,
2004
Greenberg Research –
Evangelical Demographics





Evenly spread throughout the country
31% live in the Deep South
19% live in the Central Northeast
14% live on the Pacific coast
Evangelicals disproportionately live in rural
areas (25%) or small towns (31%)
Greenberg Research –
Demographics (cont.)



55% of Evangelicals believe it is very important
we show support for Israel in contrast with only
40% of Americans in general.
82% of Evangelicals are registered voters and
65% of those reported that they voted in both
2000 and 2002.
15% of Evangelicals are Afro-American, 75% of
whom are staunch Kerry supporters.
Greenberg Research –
White Evangelicals


White evangelicals
are mainly
conservative and
support Bush’s reelection bid.
Among those who
vote, 74% support
Bush as opposed to
23% that support
Kerry.



More politically engaged
than general population.
More likely to participate
politically due to
religiosity.
While 1 in 5 white
evangelical voters are
Democrat, they are less
likely to vote than their
Republican counterparts.
Greenberg Research –
Evangelical Foreign Policy




Moved more by conservative ideology rather
than faith-based altruism.
Priorities include homeland security, war on
terror, and safety from foreign aggression.
Evangelicals are much more pro-Israeli (55%
versus 40%) than Americans in general.
However, there is little difference from the
general population with regard to Palestinian
rights.
CNI / Zogby Poll Results Evangelical Views on the Mideast


49% of Born Agains support making Israel
accountable for her actions. 33% do not
support making Israel accountable. (April
5, 2004)
40% of Born Agains agree that the state of
Palestine should now be recognized. 30%
disagree with the remainder unsure. (July
2003)
Zogby International

Poll of likely voters in
the 16 “battleground
states”






Arkansas (6)
Florida (27)
Iowa (7)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
Missouri (11)










Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Ohio (20)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Tennessee (11)
Washington (11)
West Virginia (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Zogby International –
Florida

Florida
30.3%
Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again
27 Electoral Votes

7%

1%
Bush
29%
Kerry
Other
63%
NS

Bush won by 537
votes in 2000
29% Kerry
63% Bush
30% of likely voters
are “evangelical”
Zogby International –
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
16.67%

Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again
21 Electoral Votes
1%
0%
20%
Bush
Kerry
Other


NS
79%

Gore won by
204,000 (4.2%)
votes in 2000
20% Kerry
79% Bush
17% of likely voters
are “evangelical”
Zogby International –
Ohio
Ohio
20.45%

Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again
20 Electoral Votes
3%
1%
16%

Bush
Kerry
Other
NS
80%


Bush won 165,000
(3.5%) votes in
2000
16% Kerry
80% Bush
20% of likely voters
are “evangelical”.
Zogby International –
Michigan

Michigan
19.61%
Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again
17 Electoral Votes
4%
3%

23%
Bush
Kerry
Other

NS
70%

Gore won by
217,000 (5.1%)
votes in 2000
23% Kerry
70% Bush
20% of likely voters
are “evangelical”.
Zogby International –
All 16 Battleground States
All 16 Battleground States
30.34% Evangelical/Fundamentalist/Born Again
177 Electoral Votes
3%
2%
22%
Bush
Kerry
Other
NS
73%
Questions
Will the election depend on how
many born again, fundamentalist, or
evangelical voters turn out?
 Does Bush’s re-election hinge on
raising the number of such voters
from 65% participation to 70% or
more?

Conclusion
“Bad politicians are elected by good
people who don’t vote.” – Billy
Graham, Evangelist
 Karl Rove fears Evangelicals not
voting in 2004
