All Cotton production is forecast at 17.8 million 480-pound bales, up 3
percent from last month but down 17 percent from last year's 21.6 million
bales. Yield is expected to average 811 pounds per harvested acre, up 28
pounds from last month but down 3 pounds from 2006. Harvested area is
expected to total 10.5 million acres of all cotton, down 1 percent from last
month and down 17 percent from last year. Upland cotton production is
forecast at 17.0 million 480-pound bales, up 3 percent from last month but
down 18 percent from last year. Compared with last month, lower upland
production forecasts in the Delta and Southeast were offset by the 15
percent increase in Texas production to 7.00 million 480-pound bales.
American-Pima production is forecast at 793,000 bales, down 2 percent
from last month but up 4 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested
area is expected to total 289,000 acres, down 1 percent from last month
and down 11 percent from 2006
Dr. Bob’s “Top 10 things about
the cotton market a farmer does
not want to hear”
Dr Bob’s “Top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
10. Auburn Agricultural Economist predicts $1
cotton by fall of 2008.
Everything worth knowing
about economics is just
common sense
Dr Bob’s “Top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
9. You may have a claim.
Dr Bob’s “Top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
8. Wheat is $6.00 a bushel but you can’t buy any
seed.
Dr Bob’s “Top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
7. USDA: 2007 US cotton crop is getting bigger.
Alabama Cotton Crop Condition Report
Very
Percent
Acres
Est Yld (lbs)
Total Prod
Average Yld
Excel-
Poor
Poor
Fair
Good
lent
41
28
22
8
1
164000
112000
88000
32000
4000
250
350
550
750
1000
326250
391.5
Cotton variety test planted May 20. Picture taken mid July.
Harpersville Alabama 2007
“The crop on the High Plains and Rolling Plains keeps getting
larger every week. If an early freeze can be avoided, the Texas
crop could easily exceed the record levels of 2005. My estimate
of 700 pounds per acre is probably very conservative.” – Jeff
Thompson, AQCA
Dr Bob’s “Top 10 things about
the cotton market you don’t
want to hear”
6. The economy is in recession
Pct GDP Change
20
15
10
5
Series1
0
-5
-10
Quarter
Dr Bob’s “The top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
5. The Chinese have cut off all raw
cotton imports.
China
U.S.
“Not since England in
the 1800s has one
country dominated
world cotton trade and
consumption as China
does today.”
“The end of the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) and increased use of
genetically modified (GM) cotton have profoundly altered world cotton
markets in recent years. The economic restructuring and growth of China
and India have been important as well. During the mid-2000s, world
cotton consumption grew at its fastest rate in decades, and world cotton
trade has grown even faster. “ – USDA, Cotton World Situation, Aug 18,
2007
Dr Bob’s “The top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
4. Biodiesel causes cancer.
Cottonseed Biodiesel
• Alabama produces about 500,000, 675,000 bales of cotton, and
250,000 Tons of cottonseed.
• At 20% oil content, this converts to 13 Million gallons of diesel fuel.
• Cottonseed price*: $100-$120 per ton
– Oil value per ton: $120
– Meal value per ton: $200
* Price subject to change
Dr Bob’s “Top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
3. Corn exports are down
Dr Bob’s “Top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
2. Two Words :
Mad Cow
Dr Bob’s “Top 10 things about the
cotton market you don’t want to hear”
1. You can’t make ethanol out of corn
US Cotton in the biofuels era
• Demand for corn and soybean acreage will limit cotton
acres – Freedom to Farm will work.
• US Cotton acres will run around 11-12 million acres,
production will be 15-17 million bales.
• US textile industry will continue to decline, by 2010
virtually all US cotton will be exported.
• US will continue to be the “residual supplier” for the
world market, storing most of our crop each year.
• AWP will remain in the mid ’50’s, world cotton production
will be adequate to meet demand, surpassing 130 million
bales by 2010.
Farm Bill Reform
•
•
•
•
Don’t give welfare to millionaires.
Don’t pay farmers not to grow crops.
Let “Base” go with farmer, not land(lord).
Let “Base” be a 10-year rolling average of crops
actually produced by a farmer.
• No cash except in emergency, USDA payments
offset Form F income only.
• Provide reasonable farm production insurance.
• Provide reasonable conservation incentives.