Situation and Outlook of the
US Aquaculture Industry
2000 - 2001
Dr. Terry Hanson
Mississippi State University
Department of Agricultural Economics
Presentation
• World trends
• National
– consumption
– species & facilities
• Highlight on Catfish Industry
– Short- and Long-Term
Aquaculture is:
- farming of aquatic organisms
- intervention in the rearing process to enhance
production
- ownership of the stock being cultivated
World Aquaculture
Production
World Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture
Production
millon metric tons
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
1991
1992 1993
1994 1995
Capture Fisheries
Source: USDC/NOAA/NMFS, 2001
1996
1997 1998
Aquaculture
1999
World Aquaculture Production
Major Producer Countries
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Value, US$ millions
China
Thailand
Philippines
Japan
Bangladesh
Other Countries
Source: FAO, 2000; note data includes aquatic plants
Quantity, thousand metric
tons
India
Viet Nam
Indonesia
Korea, Rep.
US Consumption of
Fish and Shellfish
US Per Capita Consumption
Fish and Shellfish Products
POUNDS
17
16.2
16
15.6
15.5
15.1
15
15.0 14.9
14.8
15.0
15.2
15.0
14.8
14.9
15.1
14.6
14.2
14
13.4
13
12.9
12.8
12.5
12
15.2
15.6
13.4
13.0
12.7
12.5
12.7
2000
12.5
12.1 12.2
15.6 lbs./capita
11.8
11.5
11
1970
1975
Source: USDC/NOAA/NMFS, 2001
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
US Per Capita Consumption
of Meat and Fish, 2000*
Lb/person/year
70
60
66.0
50
55.7
40
49.2
30
Pork
15.6
14.3
Turkey
* Boneless weight
Broilers
0
Beef
10
Fish &
Shellfish
20
Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2010, February 2001
Top Ten Seafood Species in 2000
Species
Tuna
Shrimp
Alaskan Pollock
Salmon
Catfish
Cod
Clams
Crabs
Flounder/Sole
Scallops
Total of Top Ten
Source: National Fisheries Institute, 2001
Consumption
lbs. per person
3.60
3.20
1.68
1.59
1.12
0.77
0.48
0.46
0.43
0.27
13.60
Top Ten Seafood Species in 2000
Species
Tuna
Shrimp - 27% is from Aq.
Alaskan Pollock
Salmon - 50% is from Aq.
Catfish - 100% is from Aq.
Cod
Clams
Crabs
Flounder/Sole
Scallops
Total of Top Ten
Source: USDOC/NOAA/NMFS, 2001
Consumption
lbs. per person
3.60
3.20
1.68
1.59
1.12
0.77
0.48
0.46
0.43
0.27
13.60
U.S.
Aquaculture
Production
Production States
WESTERN
Trout
Salmon
Shellfish
Striped Bass
Tilapia
TROPICAL & SUBTROPICAL
Ornamental, Food and Shellfish
NORTH CENTRAL
NORTHEASTERN
Perch
Striped Bass
Tilapia
Salmon
Shellfish
Striped Bass
Catfish
Striped Bass
Tilapia
Baitfish
SOUTHERN
Aquaculture Sales
Sales by Aquaculture Category
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Food fish - 70%
Mollusks - 9%
Ornamental fish - 7%
Baitfish - 4%
Crustaceans - 4%
Sport/Game - 1%
Other animal aqua. - 5%
Food Fish Species
•
•
•
•
•
•
Catfish
Rainbow trout
Atlantic Salmon
Striped Bass
Tilapia
Others
Food Crustacean Species
•
•
•
•
Shrimp
Crayfish
Freshwater prawn
Softshell crab
Baitfish Species
•
•
•
•
Golden shiner
Fathead minnow
Goldfish
Others
–
–
–
–
Bull minnow
common carp
tilapia
sunfish
Ornamental Species
•
•
•
•
Goldfish
Angelfish
Guppies
South American
Catfish
• Koi carp
• 100’s of others
Pond Stocking Species
•
•
•
•
•
•
Channel catfish
Largemouth bass
Bluegill
Redear sunfish
Yellow perch
Trout
Estimated 1999 US Finfish & Shellfish Aquaculture
Production & Value (1,000,000)
600
400
200
0
Value
Catfish
Trout
Oysters
Crayfish
Hybrid striped bass
Quantity
Salmon
Baitfish
Clams
Tilapia
Shrimp
Estimated 1999 US Finfish & Shellfish Aquaculture
Production & Value (1,000,000)
100
50
0
Value
Salmon
Baitfish
Clams
Tilapia
Shrimp
Quantity
Trout
Oysters
Crayfish
Hybrid striped bass
Aquaculture Production Facility
Types In Use
• Ponds - 63% ->
• Cages
and pens
• Raceways
• Closed
re-circulation
systems
Aquaculture Production Facilities
• Ponds
• Cages
and pens - 4% -->
• Raceways
• Closed
re-circulation
systems
Aquaculture Production Facilities
• Ponds
• Cages
and pens
• Raceways - 14% --->
• Closed
re-circulation
systems
Aquaculture Production Facilities
• Ponds
• Cages
and pens
• Raceways
• Closed
re-circulation
systems - 7% ----->
U.S.
Catfish
Industry
Catfish Water Surface Acres
Total Catfish Acreage = 185,700
120,000
100,000
AL
AR
LA
MS
60,000
40,000
20,000
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
1989
Acres
80,000
Catfish Round Weight Processed
600,000
1,000s of lbs
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
* through August 2001, 100% of last year at this time
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
0
1975
100,000
*
Total U.S. Catfish Sales
$600,000
?
1,000s of Dollars
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
$0
1987
$100,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
Fresh
Frozen
19
88
19
86
1,000s of Lbs.
Fresh and Frozen
Catfish Products
Product Form Sold
21%
17%
Whole fish
Fillets
Other
62%
Average Fresh and Frozen Catfish Product Price
Received by Processors, 1999 - July 2001
FRESH
$2.35
$2.30
$2.25
$2.20
1999
$2.15
2000
$2.10
2001
$2.05
$2.00
$1.95
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
FROZEN
$2.60
$2.55
$2.50
$2.45
1999
$2.40
2000
2001
$2.35
$2.30
$2.25
$2.20
$2.15
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Catfish Fillets Processed in U.S.
140,000
100,000
80,000
Fresh
Frozen
60,000
40,000
20,000
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
0
19
86
1,000s of Lbs.
120,000
Catfish Industry Issues
•
•
•
•
Low catfish prices for producers
Increasing production costs
EPA effluent discharge regulations
Other issues affecting production costs
Low Catfish Prices Received by
Producers
• Why?
• Viet Namese frozen fillet imports increasing
• On-farm inventories up
• Full freezers at processing plants
• Economic uncertainty
• Stagnant per capita consumption
Catfish Price Paid to Farmer, $/lb
80.0
78.0
74.0
72.0
70.0
68.0
25-year avg
66.0
64.0
62.0
1975-2000 Avg Price
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
60.0
Jan
$/lb Pond Bank Price
76.0
Catfish Price Paid to Farmer, $/lb
80.0
78.0
74.0
10-year avg
72.0
70.0
68.0
25-year avg
66.0
64.0
62.0
1975-2000 Avg Price
'1990-2000 Avg
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
60.0
Jan
$/lb Pond Bank Price
76.0
Catfish Price Paid to Farmer, $/lb
80.0
78.0
5-year avg
$/lb Pond Bank Price
76.0
74.0
10-year avg
72.0
70.0
68.0
25-year avg
66.0
64.0
62.0
1975-2000 Avg Price
'1990-2000 Avg
'1995-2000 Average
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
60.0
Catfish Price Paid to Farmer, $/lb
80.0
78.0
5-year avg
$/lb Pond Bank Price
76.0
74.0
10-year avg
72.0
70.0
68.0
25-year avg
66.0
64.0
62.0
2001 price
1975-2000 Avg Price
2001
'1990-2000 Avg
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
60.0
'1995-2000 Average
Average 2001 prices* are:
• $0.09/lb less than 5-year average
• $0.06/lb less than 10-year average
* through September 2001, not adjusted for inflation (nominal prices)
Catfish Price Paid to Farmer, $/lb
80.0
78.0
2000 price
74.0
72.0
70.0
68.0
$0.12 per lb less
in Sept. 2001 than
in 2000 = -16%
66.0
64.0
62.0
2001 price
2001
2000
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
60.0
Jan
$/lb Pond Bank Price
76.0
Lower Price Received by Farmer
& Net Returns
• Cost of production:
– $0.60 - $0.72 / lb
– Present price of $0.62 / lb =>
• Loss for less efficient farmers
• Very low profit for efficient farmers
Source: USDA/NASS
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1976
1,000s lb.
Imports of Catfish to U.S.
Source: USDA/NASS
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
<= River Catfish from Brazil
whole fish from rivers
1978
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1976
1,000s lb.
Imports of Catfish to U.S.
Source: USDA/NASS
* Through July 2001
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
Viet Namese
Frozen Fillets
78% - 97% of
all imports =>
1978
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1976
1,000s lb.
Imports of Catfish to U.S.
*
Frozen Catfish Fillet Sales in the U.S.
2000-present
14
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
10
8
6
4
2
Jul '01
May '01
Mar '01
Jan '01
Nov '00
Sep '00
Jul '00
May '00
Mar '00
0
Jan '00
Million Lbs
12
Frozen Fillet Sales (Produced in U.S.)
Viet Namese Imported Frozen Fillets
Viet Namese Fish as % of Total Frozen Fillet Sales in US
How have imports affected the price of frozen catfish fillets?
Frozen Catfish Fillet Prices 1999 - 2001
$2.95
$2.90
$2.85
$2.80
$2.70
1999
2000
$2.65
2001
$2.60
$2.55
$2.50
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
$2.45
Jan
$/lb
$2.75
Comparison of Fillet and Pond
Bank Prices
Pond Bank Price $/lb
$2.95
0.80
$2.85
0.75
$2.80
$2.75
$2.70
0.70
$2.65
$2.60
2000 Fillet
2001 Fillet
2000 Fish
2001 Fish
$2.55
$2.50
0.65
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
0.60
Feb
$2.45
Jan
Frozen Fillet Price $/lb
$2.90
Industry Response to Imports
• Legislation
– “Country of Origin” labeling
– Removal of Channel Catfish images on import
packaging
– Seek to have ‘Catfish’ name removed from nonIctaluridae fish species
• Advertising
– Concentrate on strict US safety and health standards
• Legal
– Anti-dumping case?
Food Fish Inventories UP
• Compared to last year
Food Fish Inventories
are Up
300
250
200
– Large FF
– Medium
– Small
+ 54%
+ 46%
+ 24%
Large
Medium
Small
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
Food Fish Inventories UP
Why?
• Fish size that processors want has increased
•
•
•
•
Early 1990’s - 1.00 lb avg
Mid 1990’s - 1.25 lb avg
Early 2000’s - 1.50 lb avg
Some processors now wanting 2.0 lb avg
• Larger fish require longer production cycle
• 18-24 months
Food Fish Inventories UP
• “Glut” of fish ready for harvest
– Expensive and risky for farmers to keep on-farm
– Low prices make selling unattractive
• Some Processors are reducing the number
of shifts or processing lines
Increasing Production Costs
• Feed price inching upward
• Increasing bird populations
• Diseases: old and new
32% protein feed price
Poly. (32% protein feed price)
6/1/2001
3/1/2001
12/1/2000
9/1/2000
6/1/2000
3/1/2000
12/1/1999
9/1/1999
6/1/1999
3/1/1999
12/1/1998
9/1/1998
6/1/1998
3/1/1998
12/1/1997
9/1/1997
Feed Price, $/ton
Nominal Catfish Feed Prices
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Types of Bird Damage
•
•
•
•
•
Feeding on catfish (80%)
Injury of fish (33%)
Disrupting feeding (23%)
Damaging structures (23%)
Transmission of disease
– White Pelican - trematode - Ram’s horn
snail, since 1998
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
DCCO Winter Pop
Aquaculture Acres
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1990
DCCOs & Catfish Acreage
DCCO Wintering Population and Catfish
Acreage in MS Delta
EPA Effluent Discharge Regulation
• Looking at aquaculture discharge as point
source of pollution
– Diverse industry
• Screener survey sent out in Aug/Sept ‘01
• Long form of survey to follow
• Regulations due out in July 2002
– Expected to increase costs of production
Cash Costs
for a 250 Acre Catfish Farm Stocking 7,500 5" Fish Per Year
Income Above Variable Costs
600
400
Fish Price
200
75 cents/lb
0
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
70 cents/lb
-200
65 cents/lb
-400
-600
60 cents/lb
-800
55 cents/lb
-1,000
-1,200
Feed price per ton
310
Short-Run
• If producers cannot cover variable costs:
– Stop producing?
– Difficult to stop multiple-batch production
systems
– May delay restocking ponds
• Could lead to future shortages 15 - 18 months later
Long-Run
• If producers cannot cover Variable and
Fixed costs, then what?
– Make Adjustments to production scheme
• modular components specializing in developing
large stockers
• use of genetically improved or hybrid catfish for
faster growth
• better management of off-flavor, diseases, and birds
Outlook for 2002
• Expansion on hold
– Less new pond construction
– Efficient farms will break even
– Less efficient farms will lose some equity
gained in last few years
Outlook for 2002
• If prices remain low:
– some producers will not restock
– could lead to a shortage of fish in 2003
– adapt with new less expensive strategies of
production
Outlook for 2002
• Much depends on how successful industry
is in handling increasing imports
Outlook for Long-Term
• Food producers will be needed
• Food producers will make a living and
make money
• Catfish production will continue to increase
– Fish consumption will continue to go up
– Beef is a substitute
• high beef prices will likely increase fish
consumption