Matakuliah
Tahun
: K0442-Metode Kuantitatif
: 2009
Introduction
Pertemuan 1
Material Outline
•
•
•
•
Problem Solving and Decision Making
Quantitative Analysis and Decision making
Quantitative Analysis
Model of Cost Revenue, and Profit
Problem Solving and Decision Making
The Problem Solving Process:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Identify and define the problem
Determine the set of alternative solutions
Determine the criterion
Evaluate the alternatives
Choose an alternative
Implement the selected alternative
Evaluate the results to determine weather a
satisfactory solution has been obtained
Problems
• Single criterion decisions problems
• Multi criterion problems
Problem Solving and Decision Making
Example:
Data for the Job Evaluation Decision-Making Problem
Alternative
Starting
Salary
Potential for
Advancement
Job Location
1. Rochester
$48,000
Average
Average
2. Dallas
$46,000
Excellent
Good
3. Greensboro
$46,000
Good
Excellent
4. Pittsburgh
$47,000
Average
Good
* You Decide to select alternative 3, Decision is the
alternative selected
A Subclassification of The Decision making
Process
Structuring The Problem
Define
The
Problem
Identify
The
Alternative
Analyzing The Problem
Determine
the
criteria
Evaluate
The
alternative
Choose
An
Alternative
The Role of Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis
Analyzing the Problem
Qualitative
Analysis
Structuring the Problem
Define
the
Problem
Identify
the
Alternative
Determine
the
Criteria
Summary
and
Evaluation
Make the
Decision
Quantitative
Analysis
Bina Nusantara University
8
Problems
• Single criterion decisions problems
• Multi criterion problems
Quantitative Analysis
• Model Development
- Iconic Model
- Analog Model
- Mathematical Model
Maximize 10x
objective function
Subject to (s.t.)
5x≤ 40
Constraint
x≥ 0
•
•
•
•
Data Preparation
Model Solution
Report Generation
A Note Regarding Implementation
Quantitative Analysis
Flowchart of The Process of Transforming Model Inputs into Output
Uncontrollable Inputs
(Environmental Factors)
Controllable Inputs
(Decision Variable)
Mathematical
Model
Output
(Projected result)
Quantitative Analysis
Flowchart for the Production Model (a)
Uncontrollable Inputs
$10 profit per unit
5 labor-hour per unit
40 labor-hours capacity
Value for the
Production
Quantity (x =8)
Controllable Inputs
Max 10 (8)
s.t.
5(8) ≤ 40
8 ≥ 0
Mathematical
Model
Profit = 80
Time Used =40
Output
Quantitative Analysis
• Model Solution
Trial and Error Solution for the Production Model of Flowchart (a)
Decision Alternatives
(Production Quantity)
x
Projected
Profit
Total Hour
of Production
Feasible Solution?
(Hours Used ≤ 40)
0
0
0
Yes
2
20
10
Yes
4
40
20
Yes
6
60
30
Yes
8
80
40
Yes
10
100
50
No
12
120
60
No
Bina Nusantara University
13
Model of Cost, Revenue, and Profit
• Cost and Volume Model
C (x)= (3000 + 2x)
• Revenue and Volume Model
R(x)= 5x
• Profit and Volume Model
P(x)= R(x) – C (x)
= 5x – (3000 + 2x) = -3000 +3x
Model of Cost, Revenue, and Profit
Breakeven Analysis
• P(x)= R(x) – C (x)
= 5x – (3000 + 2x) = -3000 +3x
P(500) = -3000+3(500)= -1500
P(800) = -3000+3(800) = 2400
P(x) = -3000 + 3x = 0
3x = 3000, x=1000
Model of Cost, Revenue, and Profit
• Graph of the Breakeven analysis for Nowlin Plastics
12
Revenue and Cost
10
Total Revenue
R(x) = 5x
Profit
8
6
Fix Cost
Total Cost
C(x) = 3000 + 2x
4
2
0
Bina Nusantara University
Loss
Breakeven Point = 1000 unit
2
4
6
8
10
12
Production Volume
16