Reasoning and Decision Making
PERTEMUAN 12
10.1 Mental Models
• Mental models
• Mental Logic
10.2 Decision Making
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Normative models
Probability
Heuristics
Subjective utility
Framing
Normative Model
• When making a decision such as ‘should I
take a coat with me or should I buy an
umbrella?’
• we are making a complex set of judgments
about the probability of future events (i.e.
whether or not it will rain) and the costs
and benefits to us of alternatives
10.3 Deductive and Inductive
Reasoning
There appear to be three main criteria for deciding that an
individual is engaging in problem-solving activities
(Anderson,1980), and a great variety of tasks meet
these:
1 The activities must be goal directed, i.e. the individual
attempts to attain a particular end state.
2 The attainment of the goal or solution must involve a
sequence of mental processes rather than just one.
3 These processes should be discernibly cognitive.
Deductive reasoning
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Syllogism
Content effects
Atmosphere
Conversion
Misinterpretation
Figural effect
• Research involving deductive reasoning
has examined whether conclusions that
are drawn from certain premises are
indeed logically valid.
Inductive Reasoning
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Confirmation Bias
Selection problem
Schematic reasoning
2-4-6 task
10.4 Statistical Reasoning
• A further area of research which has shown how
‘error-prone’ our thinking can be has concerned
our ability to judge probabilities.
• One important rule of thumb is the availability
heuristic, whereby judgements are made on the
basis of how available relevant examples are in
our memory store, in other words the ease with
which we can think of instances.
• Other research has shown that we may make
decisions between alternative possibilities on the
basis of which appears more representative,
regardless of other information;
• representative or typical instances of a category
are judged to be more probable than
unrepresentative ones.
• This representativeness heuristic can explain
the gambler’s fallacy, that after a run of losses
there will be a good chance of a win.
• base rate fallacy.
10.5 Everyday Reasoning
• In our daily lives, we are required to draw
conclusions or inferences and to make
decisions.