CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
STABILIZING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF
PALMDALE, CALIFORNIA
AN APPLIED ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY STUDY
A thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the
requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in
Geography
by
LaMoyne Berger Kinzell
May, 1982
The Thesis of LaMoyne Berger Kinzell is approved:
Chairman
California State University, Northridge
ii
To my mother
;;;
ACKNOvJLEDG~1ENTS
This thesis would not have been written without the encouragement and assistance of a number of individuals.
r~y
thanks to the
research librarians of the Palmdale City Library and Los Angeles
County Public Library in Lancaster for their assistance in finding
historical and statistical works; to Diane Hamill, my real estate
agent-friend, who guided me through the complexities of real estate
information; and to the numerous public agencies of Palmdale and
Lancaster who shared their reports and statistics with me.
~1y
gratitude and love to my long-suffering family as I struggled
with the compiling of statistics and writing of this thesis:
my hus-
band, Les, for proofreading and endless encouragement; my children,
Yvette, Anitra, and Antony, for assisting me with the field surveys.
A special acknowledgment is due my advisor, Or. David Hornbeck.
His guidance, advice, encouragement and good humor have been invaluable.
iv
Table of Contents
iii
Dedication
Acknowledgments
iv
List of Tables
vii
List of Figures
xi
List of
xii
~1aps
xiii
Abstract
Chapter I
Introduction
1
Scope and Study Area
Methodology and Data
Literature Review
Organization
Chapter II
Population and Commercial Development
Early Development:
Growth Period:
Chapter III
1884-1951
1950-1980
Population and Occupations
25
Summary
Chapter IV
Economic Base and Transportation
44
Economic Base
Transportation Patterns
Fiscal Structure
Summary
Chapter V Future Growth Trends
72
Population, Housing and Employment Trends
Expansion Plans and Employee Skill Requirements
v
@ .
Summary
Chapter VI
Residential and Commercial Land Use
93
Proposed Land Use
Potential Land Use
Chapter VII
Conclusion
112
Bibliography
117
Appendix A
124
Appendix B
125
Appendix C
130
vi
List of Tables
2-1
Service and Retail Activities
15
Palmdale - 1930
3-1
Population Changes of Antelope Valley Communities -
26
1975 to 1980
3-2
Population Growth - 1970 to 1980
27
Palmdale-Lancaster Areas
3-3
28
Years of Residence
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
3-4
Housing Unit Growth - 1970 to 1980
30
Palmdale-Lancaster Areas
3-5
30
Type of Housing - 1980
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
3-6
Residential Building Permits
31
Palmdale - 1970 to 1980
3-7
Age Structure of Adult Population - 1980
32
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
3-8
35
Education Levels - 1980
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley Residents
3-9
Occupational Type Profile - 1980
36
Palmdale-Lancaster
3-10
38
Place of Work - 1980
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
3-11
Local Shopping Area - 1980
Palmdale-Lancaster
vii
38
3-12
Shopping Trip Frequency - 1980
39
Palmdale-Lancaster
3-13
Merchandise Types - 1980
40
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
4-1
Agriculture Production - 1960 to 1978
46
Los Angeles Portion of Antelope Valley
4-2
Aviation Activities - 1979
49
Antelope Valley
4-3
Employment by Industry - 1959 to 1977
50
Palmdale-Lancaster Labor Market Area
4-4
Percent Employment by Industry - 1980
53
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
4-5
Employment Distribution by Industry - 1980
55
Antelope Valley
4-6
Number of Employees by Percent Employers - 1980
54
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
4-7
Distribution of Firms by Annual Payroll - 1980
56
Palmdale-Lancaster
4-8
Percent of Payroll Paid to Employees Residing Outside 57
City of Employment - 1980
Palmdale-Lancaster
4-9
Average Daily Traffic California State Highways -
60
1970 to 1979
4-10
24-Hour Traffic Volumes on Selected County and City
62
Roads - 1965 to 1980
4-11
Financial Institution Activity - 1975 to 1979
Palmdale-Lancaster
viii
66
4-12
Growth of Tax Revenues - 1964 to 1980
67
Palmdale
5-1
Population Trends and Forecast
73
Palmdale, Sphere of Influence, Antelope Valley 1970 to 1990
5-2
Housing Trends and Forecast
75
Palmdale, Sphere of Influence, Antelope Valley 1970 to 1990
5-3
Employment Growth Trends
76
Palmdale-Lancaster Labor Market Area - 1959 to 1980
5-4
Employment Growth by Industry
78
Antelope Valley - 1980 to 1985
5-5
Business Employment Growth by Industry
79
Palmdale - 1980 to 1985
5-6
Planned Expansion of Existing Firms
81
Antelope Valley - 1981
5-7
Employee Skills Needed by Employers
82
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
5-8
Employee Skill Needs by Industry Group
83
Antelope Valley
5-9
Employee Skills Needed by Industry Group
84
Palmdale
5-10
Business Generated Passenger Air Travel by Airport
85
of Origin
5-11
Air Freight Service Demand - 1980
86
5-12
Frequency of Air Freight Use by Industry
88
ix
5-13
Number of Business Trips Requiring Air Transportation 89
by Industry - 1980
5-14
Percentage of Yearly Production Shipped by Air Freight 90
Users - 1980
6-1
Single-Family Housing
95
Palmdale - 1980 to 1981
6-2
Multi-Family Housing
97
Palmdale - 1980 to 1981
6-3
Residential Growth Areas
98
Palmdale - 1980 to 1981
6-4
102
Traffic Volume - 1981
Palmdale
6-5
Public Transportation Schedule - 1981
104
Palmdale
6-6
Potential Growth Area Zoning
105
Retail and Service Activities
6-7
Potential Growth Area Zoning
Manufacturing
X
109
List of Figures
Fig.
2-1
Population Trend of Palmdale From 1900 to 1980
14
3-1
Income Distribution - 1980
34
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
3-2
Employment Profile - 1980
37
Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley
4-1
Antelope Valley Trends - 1965 to 1980
70
5-1
Population Growth - 1970 to 1990
74
xi
List of Maps
1
Antelope Valley Topography
3
2
Study Area
4
3
Pioneer Towns and Roads
11
4
New Palmdale, 1892
13
5
Palmdale Airport and Plant 42
17
6
Commercial Expansion
18
Palmdale, 1950 - 1980
7
Palmdale Zoning Map
8
The Commercial Structure of Palmdale - 1980
20
130
Appendix C
Residential Areas of Palmdale
29
10
Antelope Valley Aerospace Bases
48
11
Antelope Valley Traffic Volume - 1979
59
12
Palmdale Traffic Volume - 1979
64
13
Palmdale Residential Expansion
94
9
1980 - 1981
14
Proposed Commercial Areas
15
Palmdale Traffic Volume and Flow -
16
Potential Commercial and Industrial Areas
xii
100
1981
103
106
ABSTRACT
STABILIZING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF
PAU~DALE,
CALIFORNIA
AN APPLIED ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY STUDY
Geography
by
Lal1oyne Berger Kinzell
This thesis investigates the types of commercial and industrial
activities that would best expand and stabilize the economic base of
Palmdale and the surrounding region.
There are two objectives.
The
first is an economic assessment of Palmdale revealing the city's current economic picture.
The second formulates a land-use plan for
Palmdale and develops forecasts of population and employment growth.
Multiple data sources
w~re
utilized.
Data on the economic char-
acteristics of Antelope Valley and Palmdale were accumulated from
government documents and survey questionnaires of households and employers.
By cross tabulation and frequency distribution of data, the
economic base of the Valley and Palmdale was determined.
Physical sur-
veys were conducted of the commercial-industrial activities, residential areas and traffic volume of Palmdale.
xiii
These data were coded, tab-
ulated and mapped giving the current land-use picture of the city.
Historical profiles combined with the household and employer survey
results developep forecasts of population and employment growth.
Data present a current picture of Palmdale as the manufacturing
center of the Valley with a dramatic population growth in the last
decade.
Analysis indicates Palmdale has not kept pace with population
growth in housing and retail-service activities.
Projections indicate
major expansion in population and employment for Antelope Valley and
Palmdale over the next decade which will create demands for additional
retail-service activities.
Commercial, manufacturing and residential expansion zones are
proposed in an effort to expand and stabilize Palmdale's economic base.
Regional planning by the Valley's two leading cities, Palmdale and
Lancaster, is suggested as a method of stabilizing Palmdale's economic
base.
With regional planning, Palmdale could expand manufacturing and
develop these retail and service businesses which would best serve the
local needs.
xiv
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
Antelope Valley and its communities have been economically bypassed in the past.
Historically, the Valley's economic growth has
depended upon two principal industries, agriculture and aerospace.
Cyclical activity in these industries has resulted in a notable economic lag.
However, over the past ten years, the region has become
more urbanized and economically diversified, leading to a reasonably
stable population and economic growth rate.
In recent years local officials and business groups of Palmdale
have made impressive strides in the promotion and development of the
community's commercial and industrial facilities.
The completion of
a new freeway linking Los Angeles with the Valley since 1973 has been
the main focal point of this development.
An indepth study of this
rapidly expanding area is needed at this time.
The future economic
growth of Antelope Valley and Palmdale, in particular, is directly
related to the expansion of existing industries, the development of
new businesses, and the influx of population.
The purpose of this
thesis is to investigate the types of commercial and industrial activities that would best expand and stabilize the economic base of
Palmdale and the surrounding region.
Scope and Study Area
Antelope Valley, a 2500 square mile agriculture and industrial
region, is situated an hour's drive northeast of metropolitan Los
Angeles.
Roughly triangular in shape, this high desert plain is
1
2
bounded by the San Gabriel Mountain range to the south, the Tehachapi
Mountains ranging to the north and west, and desert buttes on the east
(Map 1).
Palmdale, a city of approximately 12,000 people, is located
near the southern boundary of the Valley.
The incorporated city of Palmdale cannot be studied as a separate entity.
It must be regarded as a vital and expanding community of
Antelope Valley as a whole.
Therefore, although Palmdale is the focal
point of this study, its sphere of influence 1 is much greater than its
boundaries indicate (Map 2).
The study area includes all commercial
and industrial activities within the incorporated boundaries of
Palmdale.
These boundaries are Avenues M and S on the north and south
respectively and transversely lOth Street on the west and 40th Street
to the east.
Comparative studies of the Valley as a whole have also
been conducted regarding the economic and population development.
Temporally, the study encompasses the years 1960 to 1980.
Methodology and Data
This thesis has two objectives.
The first is an economic
assessment of Palmdale to reveal the city's current economic picture.
Multiple data sources have been used.
Material on population, employ-
ment, housing, tax revenue, education and transportation have been
gathered from government documents.
Analyzed and evaluated, these
data indicate the economic characteristics of Antelope Valley and
Palmdale during the time period of 1960 to 1980.
Data have been accumulated based on surveys of households and
employers.
Household data have been generated by Stratified Random
Digit Dialing. 2 This technique has been utilized by the Los Angeles
County Planning Group and designed to represent the total Antelope
3
Map 1: TOPOGRAPHY OF ANTELOPE VALLEY
Jill
1/
LOS ANGELES
,,J
PACIFIC OCEAN
DESERT
lE~}0/~~
DRYLAKES
~
MOUNTAINS
IDII!IIIIID
15
4
Map 2: STUDY AREA
395
··~
LOS ANGELES
PACIFIC OCEAN
Palmdale Sphere
of Influence
Total Study Area
•-
SOURCE: Antelope Valley Board of Trade, 1980 Antelope Valley Progress
California
City
.
'
5
Valley and Palmdale's sphere of influence.
In examining the economic base of Antelope Valley, the delineation of business groups is necessary.
Since the basic sources of em-
ployment and income in an urban economy are many and varied, businesses have been grouped and mapped according to retail trade, retail service, construction, producers, manufacturers and wholesalers, health
and public utility services, and government service. 3 The economic
base of the Valley is arrived at by cross tabulation and frequency
distribution of the proportion of basic employment to service employment.4
The second objective is to formulate a land-use plan for
Palmdale and develop forecasts of population and employment growth.
A physical survey of all commercial activity has been conducted and
these data have been coded and mapped according to the Standard Land
Use Coding Manua1. 5 Physical surveys of current housing expansion
and traffic volume and flow at key intersections have also been conducted.
Data accumulated from these surveys has been tabulated and
mapped. 6 These survey data have been utilized in developing a patential commercial and industrial land-use plan.
An employer survey has
been conducted by a San Francisco-based research firm to generate both
the current and future population and employment growth within the
Valley. 7 Historical profiles with the survey results and economic
models 8 are used to develop the forecasts.
Literature Review
Antelope Valley and its communities have had a long, colorful
and interesting history.
As is typical of many California areas, gold
and the railroad have played important parts in this history. 9 Commu-
6
nities, established originally because of their proximity to the railroad, have experienced an unsteady economic growth.
The region, pri-
marily agriculture, has gradually altered its economic base.
Develop-
ing first a thriving aerospace industry, the region presently is moving toward increased commercial and industrial diversification. 10
Examination of a community's economic characteristics and its
historical patterns is necessary in the attainment of optimum locating
of commercial and industrial activities.
One tool employed in analyz-
ing the economic background of a community as well as in forecasting
the future is economic base theory, developed by Homer Hoyt.
This
theory identifies the base activities of a community as those which
export goods, services and capital to locations outside the economic
limits of the community.
Thus, a community's residentiary employment,
income and population can be explained and predicted by reference to
employment in its basic activities. 11
A second tool, economic rent theory, provides a basis for the
evaluation of individual business locations.
In evaluating locations
it takes into consideration accessibility, competition, customer distribution and commercial trade area.
Also having their roots in the
rent theory are business conformations involving accessibility and the
functional roles of these businesses. 12 Associated with this theory
in locating commercial activities is an understanding of consumer beEthnic background, income, age and store preference perform a
role in developing the consumer's behavior. 13
havior.
Organization
This thesis is presented in six chapters.
Following the intro-
duction chapter, Chapter II establishes the geographic and historical
7
population and economic background of Palmdale as it has grown from a
primarily rural community to a more autonomous, urbanized city.
also describes Palmdale's present commercial structure.
It
Chapter III
investigates the demography, population and shopping patterns of
Palmdale historically and currently.
Comparative studies of Antelope
Valley are given delineating Palmdale's influence in the Valley.
The
current economy and economic base of the Valley and Palmdale are the
subjects of Chapter IV.
This chapter assesses the region's economic
base providing a basis for formulating future economic growth and
development.
Chapter V projects into the future, forecasting growth
trends in population, housing and employment.
The final chapter de-
velops land-use strategies in the Palmdale area, utilizing the current
commercial structure and projected growth trends.
Footnotes
1sphere of influence is defined as the geographical area that
identifies with a given major city in terms of employment, shopping
and services.
2For further discussion of Stratified Random Digit Dialing see
Appendix A.
3Field survey and mapping of commercial activities by author.
4An indepth discussion of the steps used to establish a community's economic base can be found in: Ralph 1~. Pfouts, editor, The
Techniques of Urban Economic Analysis (West Trenton, New Jersey--:-Chandler-Davis Publishing Company, 1960).
5The Standard Land Use Coding Manual provides each type of commerical activity with a specific category. These categories can then
be coded to yield a map providing a simplified overview of the entire
land-use pattern and structure.
6Field surveys and mapping by author.
7Discussion of the Employer Survey can be found in Appendix A.
8Ralph W. Pfouts, editor, The Techni ues of Urban Economic
Analysis (Hest Trenton, New Jersey, 1960 23-38.'"
9Historical background on Antelope Valley can be found in:
Adabelle Cogswell, Tiburcio Vasquez: Il Bandido sin~ (Volcano and
Pioneer, California, 1974); 50th Anniversary Edition: 1886-1936
Antebope Valley Ledger-Gazette (Lancaster, California, 1936); Shelton
J. Gordon, Incredible Tales of the Antelope Valley Pioneers (Palmdale,
California, 1973); Domenic Massari, Autobiography of Domenic, 18931977 (Palmdale, California, 1977); Lucie Morris, The Histor of the
Town of Lancaster, Center of Antelope Valley, California M.A--.Thesis,
Department of History, University of Southern California, 1934); Glen
A. Settle, Along the Rails from Lancaster to Mojave (Lancaster,
California, 1967); Glen A. Settle, The Antelope Left and the Settleers Came (Rosamond, California, 1975); Glen A. Settle, Tropico: Red
Hill with~ Glamorous History of Gold (Rosamond, California, 1959);
Richard Boblett Starr, A History of Antelope Valley from 1542 to 1920
(M.A. Thesis, Department of History, University of Southern California,
1938).
11
11
,
8
9
10 Information concerning Antelope Valley's economic progress and
transition can be found in: Antelope Valley Board of Trade, 1980
Antelope Valley Progress Documentary (Lancaster, California, 1980):
1-27; 11 A Story of Achievement and Transition - 1930 Progress Edition 11 ,
Antelope Valley Ledaer-Gazette (Lancaster, California, 1930); City of
Palmdale and Chamber of Commerce, Communit Economic Profile for
Palmdale, Los Angeles County, California September, 1977); .. Greater
Antelope Valley Edition .. , Antelope Valley Ledger-Gazette (Lancaster,
California, 1941); Lancaster Chamber of Commerce, Communit Economic
Profile for Lancaster, Los Angeles County, California 1975); Palmdale
Chamber of Commerce, Communit Economic Profile for Palmdale, Los
Angeles County, California January 1971); Southern California-rdison
Company, The Antelope Valley: An Area Inventory (1961},
11 Roger K. Chisholm and Gilbert R. Whitaker, Jr., Forecasting
Methods (Homewood, Illinois, 1971): 8-15, 41-50, 51-56; William L.
Henderson, Larry C. Ledebur, Urban Economics: Processes and Problems
(New York, London, Sydney, Toronto, 1972): 3-9; Ralph W. Pfouts,
editor, The Techniques of Urban Economic Analysis (West Trenton, New
Jersey, 1960) .
12 william Applebaum, Saul B. Cohen, 11 The Dynamics of Store Trading Areas and Market Equilibrium 11 , Annals, Association of American
Geographers, 51 (March, 1961): 73-101; Brian J, L. Berry, 11 Ribbon
Developments in the Urban Business Pattern 11 , Annals, Association of
American Geographers, 49 (June, 1959): 145-155; F. W. Baal and D. B.
Johnson, 11 The Functions of Retail and Service Establishments on Commercial Ribbons, Canadian Geographer, 9 (1965): 1-35; John A. Dawson,
John C. Doornkamp, Evaluating the Human Environment (London, 1973):
99-156; Bart J. Epstein, 11 Geography and the Business of Retail Site
Evaluation and Selection Economic Geography, 47 (April, 1971): 192199; Curt Kornblau, editor, Guide to Store Location Research (Reading,
r~ass., 1968): 25-98; Jack C. Ransome, The Organization of Location
Research in a Large Supermarket Chain 11 , Economic Geography, 37 (January, 1961): 42-47; Paul H. Sisco, Geographic Training and Method
Applied to Trade Area Analysis of Local Shopping Centers Journal of
Geography, 54 (May, 1957) : 201-212.
11
,
11
11
11
,
13 Jessie Bernard, American Community Behavior (New York, 1949);
Martin Cadwaller, '1A Behavioral Hodel of Consumer Spatial Decision
Making 11 , Economic Geography, (October, 1975): 339-349; ~J. A. V. Clark
and Gerard Rushton, 11 Models of Intra-Urban Consumer Behavior and Their
Implications for Central Place Theory 11 , Economic Geography, 46 (July,
1970): 486-497; Keith Harries, Ethnic Variations in Los Angeles Business Patterns 11 , Annals, Association of American Geographers, 61 (December, 1971): 736-743; Eugene VanCleef, 11 Things Are Not Always What
They Seem for the Economic Geographer .. , Economic Geography, 45 (January, 1969): 41-44,
11
CHAPTER II
POPULATION AND
Cm1~1ERCIAL
Early Development:
DEVELOPMENT
1884-1951
About 1870, so the legend goes, covered wagons containing
German and Swiss families moved westward from Illinois and Nebraska
toward Los Angeles.
They had been told that when they saw palm trees
the Pacific Ocean would be near.
The travelers arrived in Antelope
Valley and, seeing the Joshua trees, 1 mistakenly thought they were the
palm trees spoken of by others.
Consequently the families settled in
the area, naming the new colony Palmdale.
A thriving community was formed inland from the Southern Pacific
Railroad in 1876,
The site was approximately two miles east of the
present location of central Palmdale on what is now Avenue R.
The
' settlers developed farms of alfalfa, fruit orchards, vineyards and
livestock.
The village consisted of a livery stable, blacksmith, shoe
shop, mercantile store, school, church, post office and a land office.
It also was a stagecoach stop for the Butterfield Stage Lines, carrying freight, bullion and passengers between San Bernardino and
Bakersfield (Map 3).
In 1892, the Palmdale Colony site was abandoned and New Palmdale,
a community of less than 250 inhabitants, was established nearer the
railroad line.
Two factors contributed to the abandonment, a lack of
water and the inability to obtain deeds for land already boutht.
The
new site was laid out by the railroad agent from Harold settlement 2
10
Map-3:.PIONEER COLONIES
~
Wicks
1883
John Brown
No.2
1888
Manzana
1891
LANCASTER
Fairmont
1890
-
1884
John Brown
No.1
1888
Scale
0
5
10
Miles
+
Llano
1890 & 1914
N
SOURCE: Antelope Valley Ledger· Gazette, 1936.
--'
--'
.
,,
'
12
using the then existing Southern Pacific Railway depot as the focal
point. 3 The community's boundaries were approximately Avenues Q-6 and
Q-9 to the north and south respectively, lOth Street to the east and
the railroad line and Mint Canyon Road to the west.
Mint Canyon Road,
later named Sierra Highway, followed the railroad line through the
Valley to Los Angeles.
Pear orchards, vineyards and livestock ranches
surrounded the community to the east and west.
Hater for agricultural
and community needs was obtained from Littlerock Creek via a ditch and
reservoir completed in 1897 (Map 4).
Population, an essential factor in economic growth, during the
early 1900's exhibited a slow, gradual increase (Fig. 2-1).
Agricul-
ture formed the economic base of the community with the railroad as
the major employer.
Palmdale's commercial picture, although not
static, followed population growth in a gradual increase until the
1940's.
Service and commercial activities, in 1892, consisted of a
school, post office, blacksmith, church, grocery store and the railway
depot.
By the 1930's this picture had expanded to a total of 27 activ-
ities (Table 2-1).
During this period Palmdale inhabitants began to
form a shopping pattern which has endured to the present time.
Mer-
chandise deficiencies apparently forced the people to travel to
Lancaster, San Fernando, Pasadena and Los Angeles.
enced this shopping pattern: (l)
~1int
Two factors influ-
Canyon Road, the main artery
from the Valley to San Fernando and Los Angeles, was paved and renamed
Sierra Highway, expediting travel; and, (2) Palmdale, lacking a banking institution, used the nearest facilities located in Lancaster.
Shopping trips to Lancaster, combined with banking, became the natural
pattern.
13
'
-\
~
-
Map 4: NEW PALMDALE 1892
~
-
-_,_
-
-
0-6
ui1
0-6
Pos~Q
Office
~
I
"'
0::
- s'r
-_o
-E.
""\
~-~0 School
~·
0-7
Gro~ervo
~
J5
Shop
~
ci5
_s:;:
Depot
0-9
0Blacksmith
--
r0
~
z--\
Inn
zm
~
~
~
("")
")>
z
-
--\
("")
")>
z
-<
0
z
:::0
0
")>
0
z
-<
-~
-
0
z
:::0
0
-~
")>
0
""I""
-r-
-
SCALE
0
% Miles
~
N
-t-
-r
PALMDALE BLVD.
P"lmdale
050
-~
0
Church
0
'
0-9
14
Fig. 2-1: POPULATION TREND OF PALMDALE FROM 1900 to 1980
10,500
10,000
9500
I
9000
I
I(
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
I
5500
I
I
I
I
I
,I
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
...,_
500
v
,)
,I
J
0
1900
1910
1920 1930
1940
YEARS
1950
1960 1970
1980
15
SERVICE AND RETAIL ACTIVITIES
Palmdale - 1930
Table 2-1
SERVICES
RETAIL
Barber Shop
Grocery Store
Schools (2)
Hotel (2)
Blacksmith
Restaurant (3)
Service Station (2)
Auto Agency (2)
Post Office
Drugstore
Church
r.1ercant i 1e Store
Telephone Office
Ice Cream Parlor
Railway Depot
Hardware Store
Motel (2)
Bar and Poolroom
Dance Hall
Newspaper
Activity types found in Palmdale in 1930
Sources:
16
In the 1940's and 50's the gradual transition from an agrarian
to an industrial economy began.
The first runway of the Palmdale Air-
port was built for the city in 1940 by the Works Progress Administration (WPA). 4 During the following two decades the airport and its
land passed from city ownership to Los Angeles County and finally to
the Federal Government. 5 The airport terminal was enlarged, adding
runways, and the first large industry, aircraft, entered the Valley.
Plant 42 was created as a facility to augment industrial production of
prime aircraft contractors in the Los Angeles area (Map 5). 6 With the
arrival of the aircraft industry, population and business began an upward trend (Fig. 2-1).
Growth Period: 1950-1980
The commercial development of Palmdale began in the 1950's with
the arrival of large industries and population.
Residences, mainly
single-family dwellings, were constructed in three distinct areas,
Desert View Highlands to the west, Palmdale, and Palmdale East (~1ap
6). 7 With residential areas established and gradually expanding, the
number of retail, service and industrial activities began to increase.
The business nucleus 8 of the community remained, with new businesses developing along the two main arterial highways, north-south
Sierra Highway and east-west Palmdale Boulevard (Highway 138). 9 A
variety of establishments lined these arteries becoming the first step
in the commercial ribbon development 10 of Palmdale (Map 6). Following
the initial development in the early 1950's, urban arterial business
areas 11 and nucleated shopping centers 12 appeared. Expansion of
single-purpose-trip establishments 13 occurred along Sierra Highway.
Sixth Street East, lying parallel to the railroad, became a combina-
Map 5:PALMDALE AIRPORT- PLANT 42
w
w
(J)
(J)
...
ui
..:
(J)
..:
...
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Map 6:COMMERCIAL - SCHOOL DEVELOPEMENT
1950 - 1980
1----- A""'"·-----1t-~~;:---------tr==,.,---t------1r-----------~1-----------_jl-------J
t
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------~-----------PALMDALE EAST
PALM DALE
L-J
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~-·~-~
10
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COMERCIAL AREAS:
Prior to 1950
~
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1950- 1960
E~~2~22l
1960-- 1970
1970- 1980
i!t
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PROPER
..
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SCHOOLS:
Priorto1950
~
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1950
1960
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1960 ··- 1970
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Will
---+-
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-19
tion of light manufacturing and service activities.
Accessibility to
rail transportation was the leading factor in the growth of this
street.
Nucleated business centers were constructed in Palmdale East
and Palmdale proper (Map 6),
These centers emerged where the largest
number of customers could be served in close proximity.
Each were
clusters of grocery stores, variety and clothing stores, drugstores,
. 1ty s hops. The con. 1 serv1ces
. 14 , an d spec1a
persona 1 an d pro f ess1ona
struction of five schools, four public and one parochial, in the late
1950's was an indicator of population growth (Map 6).
Although Palmdale experienced cyclical periods due to the vagaries of the aircraft industry, the effect was minimal on the general
upward trend of population and commercial endeavors (Fig. 2-1). Additionally, three public schools were constructed to accommodate the
increasing population during the 1960's.
1962.
The city was incorporated in
Incorporation required zoning, thus presenting the first step
toward a planned community (Map 7).
However, a concentrated effort in
city planning was not initiated until 1970 when a Planning Commission
was created.
The construction of the Southern Pacific Railroad's
CUt-off route between Palmdale and Colton 15 to the east in 1967 and
the completion of the Antelope Valley Freeway 16 in 1973 alleviated
11
11
many transportation problems of local industries.
With improved
transportation, commercial and industrial expansion was encouraged.
The era 1960 to 1980 was a period of rapid expansion in population and commercial activities throughout the Valley, especially
noticeable in Palmdale and Lancaster.
Increasing travel on the free-
way and Highway 138 created the need for activities requiring large
sites and ready accessibility.
As in Berry's studies, highway-oriented
20
~LM
'
...,..__......,...-i!-t-----~...,..--Map
m
m
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r
7: PALMDALE ZONING MAP
L
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m
LEGEND
COMMERCIAL ZONES
MANUFACTURING AND
INDUSTRIAL ZONES
C-1: Ne•ghborhood
\11-1: Light
C-2: Light
M-2: Medium
C-3: Medium
M-A: Aircraft
CPO: Planned Development
MPO: Planned Developmenr
RESIDENTIAL ZONES
AGRICULTURAL ZONES
R-1: Single Family
A-1: Light
R-2: Low Dens1tv MultiPle
A-2: Heavy
R-3: Medium Dens•tv Multiple
RPO: Planned Development
SCALE
OTHER ZONES
0
SPD: Parking and Buffer
S·R: Recreauon
2000
Feet
1000
3000
N
21
ribbons emerged, especially to the east and west of the freeway on
Palmdale Boulevard.
Specialized functional areas developed; Palmdale•s
medical center on Avenue S and the automobile agencies, new and used,
lining Sierra Highway between Palmdale and Lancaster.
As the population increased, neighborhood shopping centers
entered the picture.
redevelopment.
Older business centers underwent renewal and
Notable in this case were the beginnings of total re-
newal of the original business nucleus of Palmdale, Avenues Q-6 to Q-9,
and remodeling plus expansion of the centers in Palmdale proper and
Palmdale East,
Sections of the central business district had degener-
ated to a slum condition, especially along Sierra Highway from Palmdale
Boulevard to Avenue Q-9.
the late l970•s.
Removal of structures in this area began in
City governmental and cultural services 17 were newly
constructed in this central node of Palmdale.
A third nucleated shop-
ping center was developed in the early l970 1 s between Division Street
and Third Street East on Palmdale Boulevard to meet the needs of customers in the western section of Palmdale, especially Desert View
Highlands.
This time span also witnessed the expansion of service
and retail activities along the urban arterials, joining with and
ranging beyond the nucleated centers.
Two industrial parks were erected, Fox Industrial Park in the
early 1970 s on Sixth Street East south of Avenue R and Palmdale
1
Industrial Park on 20th Street East north of Avenue Q in the late
197o•s.
Industrial parks are a fairly recent innovation.
They are
designed to accommodate light manufacturing industries and minimize
transportation problems,
these functions.
Both parks were constructed to fulfill
However, the earlier park, Fox, is the only one
22
which meets this functional idea.
It is composed entirely of light
manufacturing industries and has ready access to both railway and
truck transportation.
The location of Palmdale Industrial Park is
based on the future development of the Palmdale International Airport.
Since transportation is not readily accessible, the park has become
service oriented.
Nevertheless, spotty development of aircraft-relat-
ed industries have occurred in areas of close proximity to the existing airport and Lockheed's large facility.
A visual description of
the contemporary commercial structure of Palmdale is shown on Map 8
(Appendix C).
The economic and social well-being of a community is influenced
by the number of wage-earners, their qualifications, employment and
income.
Chapter III will review the population and demography of the
study area.
Footnotes
1The Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is the largest member of the
narrow-leaf yuccas. The plant attains a height of forty or more feet,
developing many branches with overlapping, long, spiny leaves. It
blooms from March to May, exhibiting large tight clusters of lilylike
blossoms at the tips of the branches. It is restricted in its range
to the Mojave-Colorado Desert, of which it is the principal indicator.
2Harold was a Southern Pacific Railway depot, approximately
three miles south of present day Palmdale Boulevard. Complete with a
telegraph agent, it was a link on the railroad between Lancaster and
Acton. Dr. Michael, the agent-planner of New Palmdale, moved the
entire community of Harold to the new location.
3
The Palmdale railway depot was the main passenger and freight
depot for Antelope Valley. The depot and freight offices were removed
in 1969.
4The original runway of Palmdale Airport was used by commercial
airlines whenever the Los Angeles airports were fogged in. Passengers were then taken by bus to Los Angeles.
5The Air Force, in 1951, negotiated with Los Angeles County to
purchase the Palmdale Airport lands. Their motive was to have a
facility that would assure the continued delivery of jet aircraft
production in the Los Angeles area.
6Plant 42 was developed by Lockheed, a leading aircraft manufacturer. It housed Lockheed, North American, Northrop and Convair.
The main purpose of the plant was the testing, inspection, rehabilitation and storage of Air Force and aircraft industrial equipment.
7The number of housing units in each area is not indicated on
Map 6, only the area. This was not a static period; on the contrary,
it was extremely dynamic.
8Avenue Q-6 to Q-9 and Sierra Highway to lOth Street East.
9Highway 138 is the main state highway linking San Bernardino
with Bakersfield.
10 oetailed discussion of commercial ribbon development can be
found in: Brian J. L. Berry, 11 Ribbon Developments in the Urban Busi23
24
ness Pattern 11 , Annals, Association of American Geographers, 49 (June,
1959): 145-155; Brian J. L. Berry, Edgar C. Conkling, D. Hichael Ray,
The Geography of Economic Systems (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey,
1976); F. W. Baal and D. B. Johnson, "The Functions of Retail and
Service Establishments on Commercial Ribbons 11 , Canadian Geographer, IX
(1965): 154-196; Ross L. Davies, Marketing Geography {London, 1976):
117-156.
11 urban arterial businesses are those which seek out urban areas
but are more successful along arterial highways, such as auto repair
shops, printing services, second-hand stores, bars, pawn shops, and
hotels.
12 Nucleated shopping centers are located centrally with respect
to their trade area. They represent the neighborhood and community
shopping center. Centers are closely or widely spaced in accordance
to the available purchasing power.
13 single-purpose-trip establishments are those which require
large, expansive sites and ready accessibility. Motels, restaurants,
service stations, household suppliers and repair facilities require
such sites.
14 Personal services are represented by barber and beauty shops,
laundering and dry cleaning establishments, etc. Professional services are medical and legal services, insurance agencies, banks, etc.
15 The Colton Cut-off is a 78-mile link between Palmdale and
Colton. It provides a shortcut for freight shipped from the northwest to the east, eliminating the passage through the Los Angeles
yard, thus saving hours and, in some cases, days for transcontinental
shipments.
16The freeway links Antelope Valley to the los Angeles metropolitan center via the Golden State, San Diego and Hollywood freeways.
The first segment from the Golden State Freeway to Acton was completed
in 1963, the remaining segment to Mojave in 1973.
17 city Hall, City Engineers, the Planning Commission and the
Chamber of Commerce compose the governmental services. The Culture
Center is comprised of the library, theater, gymnasium and meeting
rooms for civic organizations.
CHAPTER III
POPULATION AND OCCUPATIONS
The composition and characteristics of population are paramount
in the study of land-use in an area undergoing economic diversification.
The description of the current status and changes over time in
the size, density and composition of a population is an indicator of
the economic and social stability of an area.
Antelope Valley's total population in 1980 is approximately
175,000, an increase of 23 percent over
134,750.
th~
1970 population of
Compared to Los Angeles County's growth of 2.5 percent for
the same period, the growth of the Valley has been quite dramatic.
Growth of the communities comprising Antelope Valley from 1975 to
1980 is presented in Table 3-1.
The greatest density of population in
Antelope Valley is located in four areas, China Lake-Ridgecrest,
Edwards, Lancaster and Palmdale.
Although the first two areas are
military installations, they contribute to the economic base of the
Valley.
Palmdale and Lancaster, as well as their spheres of influence,
experienced a greater percentage population growth than the entire
region between 1970 and 1980 (Table 3-2).
~lithin
the incorporated
boundaries of Palmdale the greatest concentration of residents can be
found in Palmdale East as well as surrounding the central business
area.
Outside the boundaries another high concentration is located to
25
26
POPULATION
1975
45,000
Lancaster
11 ,400
Palmdale
ll ,000
Edwards**
700
Llano
2,500
California City
2,570
Mojave
2,950
Boron
700
Acton
8,500
Quartz Hill
2,800
Littlerock-Sun Village
Pearblossom
725
Leona Valley-Lake Hughes 2,300
4,500
Tehachapi
20,700
Ridgecrest-China Lake
1,200
Rosamond
***Total Antelope
Valley
149,000
1980
47,931*
12 'll3*
14,791
2,500
2,800*
3,000
2,500
925
8,800
3,260
890
2,270
3,900
22 'll6
1,500
Percent of
Antelope
Valley in
1980
Percent
Change
1975 to
1980
27.4%
6.9
8.5
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.4
0.5
5.0
1.9
0.5
6.5%
6.3
34.5
257.1
12.0
16.7
-15.3
32.1
3.5
16.4
22.8
1.3
-1.3
2.2
12.6
0.9
-13.3
6.8
25.0
175,000
* Incorporated boundaries
** Includes Edwards Air Force Base
***Does not equal the sum of above for 1975 and 1980
Table 3-1
Population changes of Antelope Valley communities
from 1975 to 1980.
Sources:
U.S. Census, Preliminary Population
Figures 1980; California Department of
Transportation; Antelope Valley Board
of Trade; Kern County Board of Trade.
17.4
27
POPULATION GROWTH
1970
1980
Percent
Change
8,511
12,113
42.0%
Palmdale Sphere of
Influence
31 ,429
38,876
24.0%
City of Lancaster
30,948
47,931
55.0%
Lancaster Sphere of
Influence
51 ,446
62,790
22.0%
City of Palmdale
Table 3-2
The Percentage of Population Growth in the
Palmdale and Lancaster Areas.
Source:
Antelope Valley Board of Trade.
28
the west in Desert View Highlands.
During the past five years, 1975
to 1980, these three residential areas have been expanding
(~1ap
9).
An additional indication of growth in these two cities was the significant percentage of residents who have lived in these areas less than
five years.
Of the two cities, Palmdale has had a higher rate of
recent population growth, 52.4 percent, suggesting changes in the community's economy (Table 3-3).
YEARS OF RESIDENCE
Palmdale
Lancaster
Ante 1ope Va 11 ey
Area
Less than 1 year
19.8%
12,9%
16.3%
2 - 5 years
32.6
21.7
27.2
- 10 years
15.0
15.5
15.2
11 - 15 years
9.0
11.0
10.0
16 - 20 years
10.2
14. 1
12.2
21+ years
13.4
24.8
19.1
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
N=
(313)
{419)
(732)
Years of Residence
6
Table 3-3
Percentage of years of residence for the cities
of Palmdale, Lancaster, and Antelope Valley in
1980.
Source:
Los Angeles County Planning Group.
Parallel with the region's population growth in the past decade
is a growth in housing, especially significant in the Palmdale and
Lancaster areas (Table 3-4).
The majority of the region's population
is housed in single-family dwellings (Table 3-5).
However, in the
Palmdale-Lancaster area an increasing proportion of the housing units
authorized by building permits, 33,3 percent, is multifamily units,
29
I
~c
Q)
-o
·u;
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0:
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.!!!
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w
..
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w
:i
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30
HOUSING UNIT GROWTH
1970
1980
Percent
Change
2,816
4,945
76.0%
Palmdale Sphere of
Influence
10,610
14,310
35.0%
City of Lancaster
9,581
18 '1 00
89.0%
16,434
26,700
62.0%
City of Palmdale
Lancaster Sphere of
Influence
Table 3-4
The percentage of housing unit growth in the
Palmdale and Lancaster areas.
Source:
Los Angeles Planning Group.
TYPE OF HOUSING
Antelope Valley
Area
Palmdale
Lancaster
81.8%
78.6%
80.2%
Apartment
7.0
8.7
7.8
Condominium
0.3
1.2
0.8
r~obil e
9.9
10.6
10.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
N=
(313)
(426)
(739)
Type of Housing
Single-family
Detached
Home
Other
Table 3-5
Percentage of residents by type of housing, 1980.
N equals the number of respondents to the household survey.
Source:
Los Angeles Planning Group.
31
both apartments and condominiums.
Issuance of building permits and housing construction increased
from 1970 to 1980, except during the decade's recession period, 19741976.
An annual average for the ten-year span was 898 housing units
for the Palmdale-Lancaster area (Table 3-6).
Major residential devel-
opment has occurred in four areas in Palmdale; two large subdivisions
between 25th and 40th Streets East south of Palmdale Boulevard, an
area near the golf course east of lOth Street West and north of Avenue
P, Desert View Highlands west of lOth Street West, and Manzanita
Heights south of Palmdale Boulevard between Division Street and lOth
Street West (Map 9).
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
CITY OF PALMDALE
Year
Single Famil,l
Multi-Family
Total
Dwelling Units
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
108
33
55
79
80
188
97
381
465
25
436
544
6
0
0
27
3
6
5
2
3
Table 3-6
27
114
168
111
14
32
920
225
182
1272
1388
2660
677
Tota 1
64
243
The number of housing units authorized by residential
building permits in the Palmdale area from 1970 to
1980. The number of permits in 1980 was to the month
of May.
Source:
City of Palmdale, Department of Building and
Safety.
The age profile of the region exhibited a shift in emphasis
consistent with the upward trend of in-migration in the area and
32
national trends.
The region's largest population group in 1970 was 5
to 15 years of age.
The year 1980 found the 18 to 29 age group the
region's largest population segment (Table 3-7).
The age structure of
Palmdale was similar to that of the entire region, with one notable
exception.
A considerably higher percentage of the 60 to 69 age group
resides in Palmdale than Lancaster, 14.3 percent and 10.6 percent respectively, which implies future needs in the city's social and public
services for the elderly.
AGE STRUCTURE OF ADULT POPULATION
Palmdale
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80+
26.0%
25.4
15.9
12.7
14.3
4.4
1.3
27.0%
22.6
16.9
14.7
10.6
5.8
2.4
26.5%
24.0
16.4
13.7
12.4
5.1
1.9
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
N=
( 315}
(415)
(730)
Table 3-7
Lancaster
Antelope Valley
Area
Age GrouE
The age structure of the adult population in the
cities of Palmdale and Lancaster and the Antelope
Valley, 1930. N equals the number of respondents
to the household survey.
Source:
Los Angeles Planning Group.
The household survey 1 established that 88 percent of households
in Palmdale currently included women in the child-bearing years, 18
to 50 years, as compared to 77 percent in Lancaster.
Fertility
levels were also slightly higher in the Palmdale population. Based
on the child-woman ratio, 2 Palmdale's fertility level was 0.36,
Lancaster's was 0.32.
Palmdale's greater population in-migration in
the past five years could account for its higher fertility level.
In
33
1977, Palmdale's population of five and eighteen years was 7,709.
1980, this age group had declined to 6,318, or 18.0 percent.
By
However,
although there was a decline, the five to eighteen age group comprised
52 percent of Palmdale's total population in 1980.
The average house-
hold size in Antelope Valley declined during the past ten years.
Household size in 1970 was 3.3, dropping to 2.8 in 1980.
However,
Palmdale and Lancaster households currently were larger than the
region as a whole, 3.2 and 3.0 respectively.
Household size in these
areas was related directly with the fertility level and in-migration.
As demonstrated with the elderly age bracket, the above indicated
future demands for child-related services, especially in Palmdale.
Data obtained from the household survey placed the median income
for Palmdale households at $20,744.
This was somewhat lower than the
median income for the entire Valley, $21,240, but not a significant
difference.
15,8 percent of Palmdale's households had an income be-
tween $20,000 and $25,000 which was comparable to the entire region.
A notable feature of Palmdale's income distribution was the large concentration of households having an income less than $5,000.
This heavy
percentage was partly caused by the large group of residents 60 years
of age and older which comprised 20 percent of Palmdale's population
(Fig. 3-1),
A fairly high level of education was attained by Antelope
Valley residents.
pleted.
An average of twelve years of schooling was com-
Of the responses from the Palmdale area, almost 60 percent
had received a high school diploma, while 35 percent had attended at
least one year of college and 4 percent had received graduate degrees
(Table 3-8).
34
Fig. 3-1: INCOME DISTRIBUTION 1980
18
17
16
Antelope Valley
15
Lancaster
14
Palmdale
13
12
11
Q)
en
.....
"'
10
Q)
9
c:
....~
0..
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
0
#
"69
,. I
~
~
G9
"69
,
......$
I
o·
~
#
,..
....
G9
s;~·
S$
~·
"''
~
,..I
0)'
~
~·
s;-~·
~
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~
Income Level
f
I
~·
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~
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~
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!).)'
~
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35
EDUCATION LEVELS
Palmdale
Education Level
2.9%
5-8 years
Antelope Valley
Area
Lancaster
3.4%
3.8%
9-12 years
58.7
48.2
53.4
13-16 years
34.6
39.3
37.0
17 or more years
3.8
8.7
6.2
Total
100.0%
100,0%
100.0%
N=
(315)
(425)
(740)
Table 3-8
The education level percentages of the residents of
Palmdale, Lancaster and the Antelope Valley, 1980.
N is the number of respondents to the household
Survey.
Source:
Los Angeles Planning Group.
The level of education of the region is reflected in the occupational categories of the residents and their employment status.
labor force is at present heavily service-oriented.
The
As shown in Table
3-9, the occupational structure of Palmdale and Lancaster is similar;
however, the former has a larger industrial labor force.
Better than
50 percent of the region's labor force is working full-time.
However,
about 8 percent of Palmdale's work force is unemployed due, in part,
to the cyclical layoffs of the aircraft industry.
ment status
Palmdale's employ-
is a reflection of its age and fertility structure in that
almost 15 percent of the population list their occupation as "Keeping
House" and 2 percent are in school (Fig. 3-2).
This large percentage,
42 percent, of residents not employed also contributed to Palmdale's
lower income status.
36
OCCUPATIONAL TYPE PROFILE
Palmdale
Occupational Type
Professionals
Lancaster
30.0%
32.0%
Managers-Administrators
9.0
12.0
Sales Workers
6,0
6.0
Clerical Workers
14.0
16.0
Service Workers
8.0
8.0
Craftsmen-Skilled Workers
19.0
15.0
Operatives-Transportation Workers
11.0
6.0
3,0
5.0
100.0%
100.0%
Laborers
Total
Table 3-9
Occupational types are segregated into eight
categories. Profile is for 1980.
Source:
Antelope Valley Board of Trade;
Questor Associates.
Although Antelope Valley has become more autonomous, 46 percent
of Palmdale's principal wage earners are employed elsewhere, whereas
only 26 percent of the work force in Lancaster have their primary
place of employment outside the city (Table 3-10).
Diversification
and expansion of manufacturing is occurring, but apparently not rapidly enough to satisfy the available work force in Palmdale.
Another factor suggesting the need of increased economic diversification in the Palmdale area is noticeable in the residents' shopping pattern.
One-third of the households shop in Lancaster or else-
where, whereas only 2 percent of the Lancaster households shop outside
their area (Table 3-11).
make at least one,
Nearly 70 percent of Palmdale's residents
generally more, shopping trips a month outside the
37
Fig. 3-2: EMPLOYMENT STATUS
..
55
50
f--
.
I":
~co/~
'§itf~
I"'
s
.
45
Q..'(§
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.•
(;'
~
..
40
.
.
•'
35
30
·.
..
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....
25
20
-
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..:
:
15
-
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.
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:-
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:-...
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9
38
PLACE OF HORK
Palmdale
Lancaster
Ante 1ope Va 11 ey
Area
Palmdale
54,0%
18.8%
36.4%
Lancaster
22.4
74.0
48.2
Other parts of
Los Angeles County
23,0
6.8
14.9
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
N=
{174)
(250)
(424)
City of Work
Other
Table 3-10
The percentage of residents in Palmdale and
Lancaster as to the city or area in which
they work for 1980.
Source:
Los Angeles County Planning Group
LOCAL SHOPPING AREA
Area of Most
Frequent Shopping
Area of Residence
Palmdale Lancaster
Antelope Valley
Area
Lancaster
33. 8~~
98.3%
66.0%
Palmdale
66.2
1.7
34.0
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
=
(305)
( 419)
(724)
N
Table 3-11
The cities of Antelope Valley where residents
of Palmdale and Lancaster as well as spheres
of influence most frequently shop, 1980.
Source:
Los Angeles County Planning Group.
39
Antelope Valley region.
Compared with Lancaster's trip frequency of
29 percent and the Valley as a whole of 49 percent, this becomes a
primary factor in pointing out the retail deficiencies of Palmdale.
(Table 3-12).
SHOPPING TRIP FREQUENCY
Lancaster
Palmdale
Trip Frequency
Antelope Valley
Area
Less than once a month
31.1%
71 .0%
51.0%
Once a month
15.0
17.4
16.2
2 - 5 times a month
39.8
10.4
25' 1
6 - 10 times a month
7.8
0.3
4.1
11 or more times a month
6.3
0.9
3.6
Total
100.0%
100 .m~
100.0%
=
(287)
(400}
(697)
N
Table 3-12
The percentage of residents making shopping
trips outside the Palmdale-Lancaster area,
1980.
Source:
Los Angeles County Planning Group.
Further confirmation of these deficiences can be found in the
types of items shopped for outside the region.
Frequent trips for
food are more localized, but households throughout the Antelope
Valley make longer trips for clothing and household items (Table 313).
This seems to establish succinctly the demand for retail estab-
lishments handling these items which would be a step toward a more
stable economy.
Summary
Antelope Valley, as a whole, has become more autonomous and economically diversified since 1960.
The data indicate, however, that
40
MERCHANDISE TYPES
Palmdale
Type of Item
Lancaster
Ante 1ope Va 11 ey
Area
Clothing, apparel
49.0%
50.7%
49.8%
Food, 1i quor
15.1
7.5
11.3
Home furnishings
11.1
12.0
11.5
General merchandise
11.8
10.3
11.1
Automobiles and
related items
5.4
4.8
5.1
Other
7.6
14.7
11.2
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
=
(484)
(292)
(776)
N
Table 3-13
The types of merchandise items residents shopped
for outside the Palmdale-Lancaster area, 1980.
Source:
Los Angeles County Planning Group.
41
Palmdale will benefit from expansion and diversification of its industrial base.
As much as 46 percent of Palmdale's wage earners are em-
ployed outside the city, either in Lancaster or other parts of Los
Angeles County.
As will be determined in the following chapter,
Palmdale's industrial base consists mainly of aerospace industries.
Unfortunately, these industries are subject to cyclical activity, and
the city's businesses, at this time, are unable to fully employ the
available labor force.
Economic expansion should therefore be a prime
objective of the future.
Evidence concerning the age structure of Palmdale's residents as
well as their shopping patterns establishes further the need for expansion.
Palmdale has a relatively high proportion of its population
in the upper age brackets.
Additionally, it has a high fertility
level, 0.36, and a large household size, 3.2.
These data indicate a
demand for social and public services, including education.
Currently,
the city's public services consist mainly of bureaucratic activities,
and Palmdale basically relies upon Lancaster to provide other types of
governmental services.
Considering the current population of children
5 to 18 years, the fertility level, and household size of residents in
Palmdale, the need for expanded social and public services will be
aggravated in the near future.
Deficiencies in Palmdale's retail trade are established in evidence related to the residents' shopping patterns.
Merchandise defi-
ciencies, especially clothing and household items, result in a significant percentage of the residents shopping in Lancaster or making one
or more shopping trips per month out of the Valley.
ture of Palmdale
(~1ap
The retail struc-
8, Appendix C) further confirms a shortage of
42
retail businesses handling items residents require.
Palmdale, conse-
quently, is losing potential benefits in the form of sales tax
revenue.
Of prime importance is the construction of housing to accommodate the present demand and encourage economic expansion.
Further-
more, Palmdale will benefit by encouraging the expansion of existing
retail activities and the development of new businesses to fulfill the
demands of its residents and available labor force.
I
43
Footnotes
1
The household survey was conducted by the Los Angeles Planning
Group in 1980. A sample of the questionnaire used may be seen in
Appendix B.
2The child-woman ratio is calculated by dividing the number of
children from birth to 4 years of age by the number of women 18 to
50 years of age.
'
CHAPTER IV
ECONOMIC BASE AND TRANSPORTATION
Economic Base
The urban economic base is composed of those activities of a
community which involve the export of goods and services to firms or
individuals outside the community's economic boundaries.
This export
function earns a dollar inflow for the community from the surrounding
region.
However, the base activities can be considered in another
sense as the wage-earners of the community family.
Without them, or
if their earning power declines, the economic health of the community
suffers.
The economic portion of a community which the base supports
is referred to as the service activity.
The service activities in-
elude those enterprises whose main function is to provide for the
needs of persons within the community's economic surroundings. 1
The major flow of income into a community is in the form of payment received for goods and services exported to the outside areas.
The part of this income which is of major significance to the community is the portion paid to workers as income.
These workers spend the
greater part of their income within the community, thus creating a
demand for goods and services.
That demand, in turn, determines the
number of local businesses and the number of persons employed.
Con-
sequently, the income earned by those businesses is paid to their
employees as income which they use to consume local goods and services.
44
45
This processt the multiplier effectt 2 creates a circular stream of income flows vital to the economic functioning of a community.
Income leaves a community's economic stream through savings and
the importation of goods and services by both basic and service activities.
If a community has insufficient retail and service businessest
the inhabitants will spend their incomes outside the community which
will tend to retard growth of the local commercial establishements.
Community service industries are as vital to community life as the
basic industries.
Their presence allows the community's income to
follow the circular path which ensures economic health and stability. 3
Antelope Valley's basic industries in the past have been agriculture and aerospace.
Prior to 1950, agriculture was the principal
_contributor to the Valley's economy.
As the Valley became more urban-
ized, agriculture's importance in the regional economy waned.
Employ-
ment and production value due to price increases of products and
greater yields per acre increased by 275.0 percent and 183.6 percent
respectively since 1960.
However, during the same time span, agri-
culture acreage decreased by 28.1 percent.
The major decline occurred
in the 1970's indicating the region's trend toward a more stable economy and urbanization (Table 4-1).
Aviation and aviation-related industries contributed significantly to the growth and development of Antelope yalley•s economic
base.
Conditions in the Valley were conducive to this industry in two
respects; favorable climate with a clear atmosphere and minimal adverse weather conditions, as well as adequate space.
These condi-
tions prompted the Air Force to institute flight-test operations in
1930 at Edwards Air Force Base.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Los Angeles Portion of Antelope Valley
1960-1978
1978
Percent Change
1969-1978 1960-1978
1960
1965
1969
1974
--
Fruits and Nuts
Field Crops*
Vegetables
Nursery Stock
2,772
73,020
1,650
75
2,384
56' 119
425
80
1,838
75 '170
130
100
1 ,540
44,570
405
70
1 '180
52,450
2,001
82
-33.7
2.9
-92.1
33.3
-35.8
-30.2
1,446.9
-18.0
-57.4
-28.2
21.9
9.3
TOTAL*
77,517
59,008
77,238
46,585
55' 723
- 0.4
-27.9
-28.1
Fruits and Nuts
Field Crops
Vegetables
Nursery Stock
$1,079
7,072
880
66
$ 966
9,247
374
87
$1,136
8,021
69
113
$2,249
12,759
369
115
$3,l53
15,955
6,523
180
-
5.3
13.4
-92.2
66.2
177.6
98.9
9,353.6
59.3
192.2
125.6
641.3
164.7
TOTAL***
$9,100
$10,674
$9,339
$15,492
$25,811
2.6
176.4
183.6
1960-1969
Acrea~:
Value**
Table 4-1
*Not including pasture and range.
**In thousdands of dollars.
***Does not include government transfers.
Source:
Agricultural Commissioner, County of Los Angeles.
•.J::::o
0"\
47
The region's aerospace nucleus is comprised of operations at
Edwards Air Force Base, China Lake Naval Weapons Station, Palmdale
International Airport, Lancaster's Fox Airport, and airports in
Mojave, California City, Ridgecrest-Inyokern, and Tehachapi (Map 10).
Companies forming the core are Boeing, Northrop, General Electric and
Rockwell International which assemble and conduct flight-test operations.
The Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Rocket Propulsion Laboratory
instigate and perform major experiments on solar energy and fuel efficiency.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducts
tests of unmanned and manned aerospace vehicles.
Plant 42 at Palmdale
International Airport serves as an assembly and flight-test center for
both military and commercial aircraft (Table 4-2).
Since 1959 the Palmdale-Lancaster economic base expanded and
diversified significantly.
1959 to 1977.
1970's.
Total employment increased by 18,300 from
The major portion of this increase occurred during the
Manufacturing, trade and government were responsible for 71.3
percent of the total employment in 1959.
t•1anufacturing carried the
largest percent due to the influx of aircraft industries.
By 1977,
the major employment areas had become manufacturing, services and
government.
Employment in these categories was evenly distributed,
accounting for 59.8 percent of the total employment.
The greatest
increase in number of employees was in services, government, construction and manufacturing.
However, the most rapid growth in employment
was in services, finance and real estate, construction, and agriculture.
Growth in the first three areas, corresponded with the rapid
population increase.
The population increase created increased
demand for housing, financing and many varied services (Table 4-3).
48
Map 10: ANTELOPE VALLEY
AEROSPACE BASES
CHINA LAKE NAVAL
WEAPONS CENTER
.....
.....
.CALIFORNIA CITY
Hvvy. 58
Hwy. 58
Rosamond
Blvd.
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE
Hwy.138
t:9
FOX AIRPORT
LANCASTER
Hwy.138
San Gabriel Mountains
SCALE
0
,
5
1
10
•
Miles
N
AVIATION ACTIVITIES
Location
Activity Type
Frequency Use (1979)
Palmdale International Airport
Golden Hest:
Air Force Plant 42
Northrop: Assembly, flight test
Lockheed: Assembly, flight test
North American Rockwell:
Assembly, flight test
Edwards Air Force Base
t·1ilitary flight testing
14,000 arrivals and departures
China Lake Naval Station
Passenger and freight service
Flight testing
35,000 arrivals and
General William J. Fox Airport
Lancaster
Mojave Airport
Private and U. S. Forest Service
141 ,000 arrivals and departures
14,046 arrivals and departures
California City Airport
Private service
Special flights and jet testing
Private and recreational service
Ridgecrest-Inyokern Airport
Commuter service
Tehachapi Airport
Private and charter service
Crystallaire Airport
Private and recreational service
Table 4-2
Source:
FAA Airmen's Information
Commercial
4,957 passengers; 5.72 tons
freight
d~partures
5,000 arrivals and departures
6,000 glider arrivals and
departures
2,900 arrivals and departures
5,000-7,000 arrivals and.
departures
85 arrivals and departures
10,126 glider arrivals and
departures.
~1anua1
+::>
\.0
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
PALMDALE-LANCASTER LABOR MARKET AREA
1959-1977
1959
TOTAL*
1977
1973
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
400
1000
3500
3.3
8.2
28.7
350
750
5300
2.5
5.3
37.5
400
800
2300
3.0
5.9
17.0
500
900
2500
3.1
5.6
15.6
900
2600
4800
3.8
11.1
20.4
1500
3800
6100
-&
4.9
12.5
20.0
600
4.9
600
4.2
800
5.9
900
5.6
975
4.1
1100
3.6
3100
25.4
3050
21.6
3300
24.4
3600
22.5
4000
17.0
4550
14.9
300
1200
2100
2.5
9.8
17.2
300
1300
2500
2.1
9.2
17.7
400
2000
3500
3,0
14.8
25.9
400
3500
3700
2.5
21 '9
23.1
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
850
4600
4750
50
3,6
19.6
20.2
0.2
1200
6100
6050
100
3.9
20.0
19.8
0.3
12200
100.0
14150
100.1
13500
99,9
16000
99.9
23525
100.0
30500
99.9
Number
Agriculture
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation,
Communication,
Utilities
Trade, Wholesale, Retail
Finance,
Real Estate,
Insurance
Services
Government
Other (Mining)
1968
1965
1962
*Percent totals may not equal 100.0 due to rounding.
Table 4-3
Sources: California Department of Human Resources; U. S. Census Bureau; Antelope Valley Board of Trade;
California Employment Development Department.
()"1
0
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (cont.)
Change in Emelo~ment
Agriculture
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation,
Communication,
Utilities
Trade, Wholesale,
Retail
Finance, Real Estate,
Insurance
Services
Government
Other {Mining)
TOTAL*
1959-1977
1968-1977
1959-1968
Number
%
Number
Ol
h
Number
%
100
-100
-1000
25.0
-10,0
-28.6
1000
2900
3600
200.0
322.2
144.0
1100
2800
2600
275.0
280.0
74.3
300
50,0
200
22.2
500
83.3
500
16.1
950
26.4
1450
46.8
100
2300
1600
33.3
191.7
76.2
800
2600
2350
200.0
74.3
63.5
300.0
408.3
188.1
--
--
--
--
900
4900
3950
100
3800
31.1
14500
90.6
18300
150.0
NA
01
......
.,.
52
In assessing the current economic base of Antelope Valley and
Palmdale, the business activities, employment and payroll were analyzed.
This analysis was primarily based on the results of the em-
ployer survey (Appendix A).
215 responses were obtained.
From this regional sample of employers
Major employers in the Valley comprised
20 of these responses.
To facilitate the analysis, the basic sources of employment were
combined into six categories:
( 1)
producers, manufacturers, wholesalers
(2)
construction contractors
(3)
.
. 4
serv1ces
government an d bus1ness
(4)
health and public utility services
(5)
retail trade
.
5
retai 1 serv1ces.
(6)
Producers, manufacturers, wholesalers and government and business
services comprised 76.8 percent of Antelope Valley's total employment.
Palmdale emerged as the manufacturing center of the Valley, accounting
for 79.4 percent of its total manufacturing employment.
Lancaster was more service-oriented.
In contrast,
Fully 72.5 percent of this
city's total employment was attributed to government, business, health
and public utility services (Table 4-4).
Employment of the businesses surveyed was 24,365, which represented 64.1 percent of the Valley's total employment of 38,011.
The
Valley's major industries employed 17,609, 46.3 percent of theregion's total employment.
sons.
These businesses employed 100 or more per-
However, the majority of the businesses, 55.7 percent, were
small, employing 1 to 10 persons.
A significantly high percent of the
______ a_ __ ·~----
-~----
---------------
53
PERCENT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
Total
Study Area
Palmdale
Lancaster
Producers, Manufacturers
and Wholesalers
79.4%
7.8%
40.9%
Construction Contractors
0.0
1.3
2.2
Government and Business
Services
9.3
27.5
35.9
Health and Public Utility
Services
1.4
45.0
13.6
Retail Trade
8.6
15.2
6.2
Retai 1 Services
1.3
3.2
1.2
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
(7,357)
(5,788)
(24,365)
Industry Group
TOTAL
N=
Table 4-4
Percent of employment by industry in 1980
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
54
small businesses comprised the retail trade and service activities
(Table 4-5).
An additional indication of Palmdale as the manufactur-
ing center of the Valley was evident in the fact that 16.7 percent of
this city•s businesses employed 50 or more persons.
In turn, only
9.4 percent of Lancaster•s firms employed more than 50 persons.
An-
other notable feature was the fairly high percentage, 14.6, of selfemployed businesses in Palmdale.
It indicated the development of a
number of small businesses, especially in the light-manufacturing category (Table 4-6).
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES BY PERCENT EMPLOYERS
Palmdale
Number of Employees
Self employed
14.6%
Lancaster
Total Stud,l Area
9.0%
7.9%
1- 10
47.9
62,2
55,7
11- 50
20.8
20.5
19.5
51-100
8.3
2.7
4.8
100-300
2.1
2.7
4.3
Over 300
6.3
4.0
6.7
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
N=
(48)
( 151 )
(21 0)
Table 4-6
Employment distribution in Palmdale and Lancaster
as to number of employees in 1980.
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey,
The annual payroll of Antelope Valley employers is approximately
$315,000,000.
Of that total amount, Palmdale employers• portion is
$106,970,000 (Table 4-7).
The significance of the payroll is evident
in the percentage paid to employees residing outside the city of their
employment.
An average of 26.5 percent of the Palmdale payroll is
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY
Number of
EmE1..21ees
Producers
Manufacturers
Wholesalers
Self
Employed
0.0%
Construction
Contractors
0.0%
Government
Business
Services
0.0%
Health
Public Utility
Services
0.0%
Retail
Trade
Retail
Services
13.0%
13.1%
Total
9.0%
1- 10
32.0
57,1
33.3
21.5
64.2
74.0
55.7
11- 50
20.0
o.o
38.9
28.6
19.5
4.3
19.5
51-100
12.0
14.3
5.6
7.1
2.5
4.3
4.8
101-200
4.0
14.3
o.o
7.1
0.0
4.3
1.9
201-300
16.0
0,0
0.0
71
0.0
0.0
2.4
301 or more
16.0
~3
22.2
28.6
0.8
0.0
6.7
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
486
236
TOTAL
Mean Employment
per Firm
100.0%
399
100.0%
78
0
12
NTable 4-5
13
116
(210)
The employment distribution by industry in Antelope Valley in 1980.
Source:
Ouestor Associates Employer Survey.
(}1
(}1
56
I
DISTRIBUTION OF FIRMS BY ANNUAL PAYROLL
Palmdale
Lancaster
Total*
Self-employed
12.5%
3.1%
4.3%
$1-$10,000
12.5
9.2
8.7
$10,001-$20,000
12.5
9.2
8.7
$20,001-$30,000
8.3
14.3
11 .6
$30,001-$50,000
12.5
9.2
8.7
$50,001-$100,000
4.2
23.4
17.5
$100,001-$200,000
25.0
8.1
10.1
$200,001-$500,000
8.3
12.2
10. 1
$500,001-$1,000,000
0.0
1.0
8.0
$1,000,001-$5,000,000
0.0
1.0
8.0
$5,000,001 or more
4.2
5.1
8.7
TOTAL
100.0%
100.0?-~
100.0%
=
(24)
(98)
Amount
N
(138)
Mean
$363,538
$613,501
$2,277,969
Median
$ 36,125
$ 59,103 $
69,003
*Includes major employer group as well as Lancaster and Palmdale
groups.
Table 4-7
The distribution of the annual payroll paid out
by employers in 1980.
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
57
paid to employees residing outside of this city (Table 4-8).
Because
of these data it is obvious that Palmdale is losing potential benefits
in the form of property and sales tax revenues from their employment
base.
PERCENT OF PAYROLL PAID TO EMPLOYEES
RESIDING OUTSIDE CITY OF EMPLOYMENT
% Paid Out of Area
Cit~
of
Palmdale
Em~lo~ment
Lancaster
0 -
5%
34.6
61.3
5 -
10%
11.5
5.3
10 - 20%
11.5
14.8
20 -
30%
19.2
5.3
30 -
40%
3,8
4.4
40 -
50%
0,0
3.5
50 - 75%
3,8
3.5
75 - 90%
0,0
0.9
100%
15.4
0.9
TOTAL
100.0
100.0
N=
(26)
(114)
90
Table 4-8
Percent of payroll paid to employees residing
other than the city in which they are employed
for 1980.
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
Transportation Patterns
The transportation structure was an additional indication of
Antelope Valley•s upward economic trend and transition from a rural to
an urban region.
Highway transportation patterns were characteristic
of the Valley•s growth and an indication the region was beginning to
5.g
serve its employment needs.
Traffic volume within Antelope Valley in-
creased in the 1970's, especially since 1973.
An increase in traffic
volume was particularly notable from the fringe areas of the Valley
converging on the Lancaster area.
Traffic on Route 14, Antelope
Valley Freeway, increased by 15.8 percent from the west and 20.0 to
21.4 percent from the north.
Highway 138 from Littlerock leading into
Palmdale experienced a 33.1 percent increase (Map 11).
During this
same time span, traffic from the region declined 14.8 percent, indicating less dependancy upon employment in the Los Angeles area (Table
4-9)
0
Internal movement in the Valley as a whole has increased; however, a significantly large volume of this traffic is traveling from
-Palmdale.
Traffic volume increased 17.5 percent from 1973 to 1979
moving along Palmdale Boulevard toward Antelope Valley Freeway.
Over
the past five years, 1975 to 1980, traffic volume has increased 36.1
percent moving north from Avenue P along Sierra Highway.
These data
present further indication of potential benefits lost to Palmdale.
Lost benefits due to employees residing in Lancaster and consumers
seeking retail establishments in Lancaster or Los Angeles (Table 4-10,
Hap 12).
Fiscal Structure
Significant data concerning changes in Antelope Valley's fiscal
structure was also indicative of the region's urbanization trend and
expanding economy.
Deposits in financial institutions in both
Palmdale and Lancaster grew at a greater rate than inflation between
1975 and 1979.
During this time span, total deposits in these insti-
tutions increased by $180,599,000 or 73.3 percent.
This represented
50
Map 11:. PERCENT CHANGE IN TRAFFIC VOLUME
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY 1973- 1979
100 equals 1973 traffic volumes
Mojave Desert
0
1-
Hwv.5a
Rosamond Blvd.
121.4
t
Hwy.138
116.2
Lancaster
0.9
San- Gabriel Mountains
SCALE
0
5 Miles
'------~
AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC CALIFORNIA STATE HIGHHAYS
1970 AA
1971 AA
1972 AA
1973 AA
1974 AA
Rte.
Jet.
Jet.
Jet.
5
Rte. 14
Rte. 126 East
South Leg Rte. 138
59,500
29,500
21,050
68,500
32,500
22,000
76,500
34,000
24,500
69,500
40,000
26,000
69,500
37,750
23,500
Rte.
Jet.
Jet.
Ward
14
Rte. 5
Rte. 126, Saugus
Road Interchange
36,000
35,000
38,000
37,000
14,550
41 ,500
36,250
19,000
44,000
39,000
19,000
44,000
37,500
19,000
14 '1 00
11,600
16,000
16,500
16,500
7,750
7,350
7,700
11 '150
11 '150
2,200
2,400
2,300
2,300
2,300
10,000
9,500
8,250
5,400
4,300
10,000
7,750
8,750
6,200
4,750
10,000
7,600
8,750
6,200
5,100
11,000
8,750
8,650
6,200
4,500
11 ,000
Palmdale, Jet. Rte. 138
Palmdale Blvd.
Ave. J-8, 20th St.
West Interchange
Jet. Rte. 48
Rte. 138
Jet. Rte. 5
Palmdale, Jet. Rte. 14
Antelope Valley Freeway
Palmdale, 20th St. East
Pearblossom Road (Ave. T)
Littlerock, 96th St. East
Jet. Rte. 18 East
8,950
8,950
8,750
7,450
7,450
4,750
AA = Annual Average
Table 4-9
The average daily traffic on major highways in the Antelope Valley from 1970 to 1979.
The years 1975 to 1979 continue on the following page.
Source: CALTRANS, Traffic Volumes on California State Highways.
0'1
0
.,
AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC CALIFORNIJ\ STATE
Rte.
Jet.
Jet.
Jet.
5
Rte. 14
Rte. 126 East
South Leg Rte. 138
Rte. 14
Jet. Rte. 5
Jet. Rte. 126, Saugus
Ward Road Interchange
Palmdale, Jet. Rte. 138
Palmdale Blvd.
Ave. J-8, 20th St.
West Interchange
Jet. Rte. 48
Rte. 138
Jet. Rte. 5
Palmdale, Jet. Rte. 14
Antelope Valley Freeway
Palmdale, 20th St. East
Pearblossom Road (Ave. T)
Littlerock, 90th St. East
Jet. Rte. 18 East
HIGH~JAYS
(cont.)
I
1975 AA
1976 AA
1977 AA
1978 AA
1979 AA
74,500
38,500
27,250
76,000
42,000
26,500
76,000
42,000
26,500
77,500
43,250
27,000
105,000
43,250
25,500
43,500
39,000
17,750
45,000
40,500
18,750
46,000
41,500
19,400
37,500
37,250
22,000
37,500
37,250
22,000
16,500
15,450
15,500
16,400
16,850
10,200
9,700
11 '1 00
10,060
10,800
9,550
11,200
8,750
11 ,250
10,400
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
11 ,000
8,750
7,450
7,450
4,750
11 ,000
8,750
7,450
7,450
5,250
13,400
8,750
8,000
8,250
5,250
22,000
8,750
6,950
8,250
5,250
22,000
8,750
6,950
8,250
5,350
t
I
O'l
......
24-HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUt·1ES ON SELECTED COUNTY AND CITY ROADS*
1965
Lancaster
~lest of
West of
East of
Blvd.
Gadsden
Cedar
Sierra Hyw.
Palmdale Blvd.
West of Sierra Hyw.
Hest of lOth
West of 15th
1966
1968
1969
11,284
8,789 10,233
Source:
1971
12,096 11,882
7,545 10,300
1972
1973
1974
11 '1 07
11 ,725 10,015
15,796
9,427
14,783
14,917
4,724
9,300
15,762
6,684
13,959
3,140
7,146
20,200 23,693 14,933 15,573
520
*Figures above are traffic counts for a single 24-hour period.
Only week-day counts are included.
Table 4-10
1970
9,824
Sierra High\<~ax
South of Ave. E
North of Ave. I
South of Ave. M
North of Ave. P.
West of Antelope
Valley Freeway
North of Palmdale
Blvd.
1967
501
1 ,961
10,513
They are not average daily traffic counts.
Roads Department, Los Angeles County.
0"1
N
24-HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES ON SELECTED COUNTY AND CITY ROADS (cont.)
1975
Lancaster
West of
14est of
East of
Blvd.
Gadsden
Cedar
Sierra Hyw.
Palmdale Blvd.
West of Sierra Hyw.
West of lOth
West of 15th
Sierra Highwa~
South of Ave. E.
North of Ave. I
South of Ave. M
North of Ave. p
West of Antelope
Valley Freeway
North of Palmdale
Blvd.
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
16,837
12,017
9,337
18,561
15,291
1 ,413
4,177
7,002
12,800 11 '171
4,217
6,327
4,476
13,552
12,702 14,362 13,455 17,424
745
11,147
Q)
w
11\Map 12:PERCENT CHANGE IN TRAFFIC VOLUME IN PALMDALE
~----------~--~--------•A•v-e.•o.___+----41+
1973-1979
97.1
i
~g
1
l
\j +~
~
1-
I
"n·
I"'::;;
~ ~~~-~
\
116.7
~z
(/)
-5
~
1-1111.1.-!-
:~
·-
'~
r1rn
:n
0
Elizabeth lake Rd.
Ave. 0
~
100% equals 1973 base
y 00 ,.,.m,~••~
% Miles
...._117.sii'i
0
0
N
M
~
~. . .
i
"!:;
~....
~
~
~
'
106.0
!11
PALMDALE
BLVD.
...... 133.1
m
8~ .
+
6'o-.
~
N
SCALE
Z
0
-
-1
~E'rr~
~Traffic Direction
~
i
:I:
~~
~~ f!J;
.
i;:;
~....
"l]
):>
~
.
%
\+-
c;;g
0
,....
0
...·
Ave. P
)
b
~
<
V& ~
4m~
)>
115.8
<
Aw.R
t
1
1
11
O'l
.f::>
65
an average annual growth rate of 14.7 percent (Table 4-11). Adjusted
for inflation, 6 the growth in deposits was 27.8 percent, 6.3 percent
annually.
Beside the increased growth in deposits, growth in Palmdale•s
tax revenue also disclosed the city•s expanding economy.
From 1965 to
1979 increases of 488.6 percent in taxable sales, 863.5 percent in
assessed valuation of property and 656.9 percent in the property tax
levy were attained.
Revenues grew at a rapid rate during the 1970 1 s.
The property tax levy reflected the expansion of the city•s boundaries,
as well as increased property values and tax rates.
However, with the
implementation of Proposition 13 in 1978, the city•s property tax revenues declined 4.6 percent.
Other taxes, such as franchise, transient
lodging, and business license, also substantiated the expansion of
Palmdale•s businesses (Table 4-12).
Summary
In a 20-year span Antelope Valley has become more economically
diversified and urbanized.
Business activities forming the economic
base of the Valley indicate the trend toward diversification.
In 1959
the base was primarily manufacturing, centered around the aircraft industry.
By 1977, the base has been evenly distributed between manu-
facturing, services and government.
Of the 20 major employers of the
Valley, employing more than 100 persons, eight are aerospace industries.
This is an additional indication of the trend toward diversi-
fication.
It suggests less dependancy upon aircraft industries to
form the economic base.
However, the location for five of these eight
industries is in Palmdale.
Employment in Palmdale is also predomin-
ately in the manufacturing category, making it the Valley•s manufac-
FINANCIAL INSTITUTION ACTIVITY
1975-1979
Average
Annual
% Change**
1975-1979
% Change
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Commercial Banks
Demand Deposits
Savings Deposits
Total Deposits*
$ 44,146
$ 45,316
69,784
125,039
83,829
143,627
$ 52,357
92,991
157,105
$ 64,041
101 .657
186,580
$ 74,498
117,939
219,260
68.8
69.0
75.4
14.0
14.0
15. 1
121,482
139,981
163,890
183,619
207,860
71.1
14.4
$246,521
$283,608
$320,995
$370,199
$427,120
73.3
14.7
Savings and Loans
Deposits
TOTAL Deposits
*Total Deposits will not equal sum of above due to variations in bookkeeping regarding interest earned on
accounts of individual institutions.
**Compounded
Table 4-11
The banking activity in Palmdale and Lancaster from 1975 to 1979.
thousands of dollars.
Source:
Deposits are in
Urban Decision Systems, Inc.
0"1
0"1
""
GROWTH IN TAX REVENUES
1964-65
Average Annual % Change
1964-1969 1969-1974 1974-1979
1969-70
1974-75
1978-79
1979-80
$18,690
$34,019
$43,361
$73,535
8.4
12.7
11.1
187
340
434
735
8.4
12.7
11.1
0
85
108
184
Property Tax Revenue
Assessed Valuation
12,134
Property Tax Levy***
924
23,803
2,114
73,349
8,013
87,946
5,459
116,907
6,994
14.4
18.0
25.2
30,5
9.8
-2.7
Other Taxes
Franchise Taxes
Transient Lodging
Business License
23,703
4,650
22 '140
60,176
45,417
23,641
110,734
60,687
21,267
NA
NA
NA
12.7
20.5
57.7
1.3
16. 5*
7.5*
-2.6*
Sales Tax Revenue**
Total Taxable Sales $12,494
Sales Tax Remitted
To City
125
Sales Tax Remitted
To County
0
13,020
0
14,332
11.2
9.1
*Percent change from 1974-75 to 1978-79.
**Calendar year corresponding to the first half of fiscal year.
***For county, school, and flood control purposes.
Table 4-12
The growth of tax revenues in Palmdale from 1964 to 1980.
thousands of dollars.
Sources:
Revenues are given in
California State Board of Equalization; Tax Payers• Guide, Los Angeles County
m
........
-
-
-~-__..._____~-
-
68
turing center.
Although the trend in the Valley is toward diversifi-
cation, this is not evident in Palmdale.
Employment and the city's
economy are thus still subject to the cyclical activity of the aircraft industries.
Growth in the fiscal structure of Antelope Valley presents evidence of increased community wealth, spending power, and growth.
De-
posits in the financial institutions in Palmdale and Lancaster have
grown at a greater rate than inflation between 1975 and 1979.
The tax
revenue base is characteristic of a growing urbanized economy.
This
base is a positive indicator of the region's ability to finance public
services, especially in Palmdale.
Growth in Palmdale's tax revenues
since fts incorporation in 1962 has increased at a greater rate than
the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim Metropolitan Area CPl.
have grown noticeably during the latter half of the 1970's.
Revenues
However,
these data demonstrate that potential revenues have been lost by the
city.
This evidence is established first in the percent of payroll
paid to employees residing outside Palmdale.
It is again evidenced in
the transportation pattern.
The transportation pattern is further indication of the internal
growth and urbanization of the Valley.
It directs attention to the
region's reduced dependancy on the Los Angeles area for employment.
The pattern suggests the Valley is beginning to serve its employment
needs (Fig. 4-1).
These data, however, present additional evidence of
Palmdale's loss of potential tax revenues.
Increased traffic volume
north on Sierra Highway at Avenue P is a definite indication of aircraft-industry employees residing elsewhere.
Additionally, increased
traffic north on Sierra Highway from Palmdale Boulevard and west of
69
Sierra Highway toward Antelope Valley Freeway suggests consumer movement,
These consumers are compelled to look elsewhere to remedy
retail and service deficiencies.
The multiplier effect has been interrupted in Palmdale.
Al-
though employment is high, housing has not been adequate to meet the
increased demand.
At the same time, the city has insufficient retail
and service businesses.
Therefore, many inhabitants are spending
their incomes outside the city.
This tends to retard commercial dev-
elopment and reveals the need of the community for more balanced development.
-----
--
...----
-
70
Fig. 4-1: ANTELOPE VALLEY TRENDS 1965- 1980
INDEX
SOURCE: QUESTOR ASSOCIATES
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
r-
r-
r-
Year
CPI
Popu.
Empl.
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.09
1.14
1.19
1.24
1.28
1.35
1.49
1.65
1,76
1.88
2.01
2.23
1.00
1.00
2.58
1.19
1.18
1.74
1.35
2.26
1.59
Agri.
Acreage
Traffic
Volume
Taxable
Sales
1.00
1.05
1.11
1.04
1.31
1,24
0.89
0.71
0.72
0.79
0.84
0.62
1.03
0.94
1.00
1.01
1.00
0.97
1.03
1.06
1.12
1.22
1.29
1.29
1.28
1.32
1.35
1.10
1.10
I
1.37
1.55
1.64
1.90
2.10
2.21
2.35
2.53
3.02
3.45
4.15
2.81
2.5
2.0
.5
._--+---+---+---+---+---~--+---+---+---;---+---+---+---+---1
0._~
___.__~------------~--~----~---------------..
1980
1975
1965
1970
YEAR
71
Footnotes
1Ralph W. Pfouts, editor, The Techniques of Urban Economic
Analysis (\>Jest Trenton, New Jersey, 1960): 5-17-.
2Indepth discussion of the multiplier effect can be seen in:
Robert K. Chisholm and Gilbert R. Whitaker, Jr., Forecasting Methods
(Homewood, Illinois, 1971); Hilliam L. Henderson, Larry C. Ledebur,
Urban Economics: Processes and Problems (New York, London, Sydney,
Toronto, 1972); Ralph W. Pfouts, editor, Techniques of Urban Economic Analysis (West Trenton, New Jersey, 1960).
3Pfouts, pp. 318-320.
4susiness services are defined as finance, insurance, real
estate, legal, advertising, stenographic, engineering, architectural,
employment and credit services,
5Retail services are defined as personal such as beauty, barber,
dry cleaning, etc., services and repair services.
6Growth rate was adjusted by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim
Metropolitan Area Consumer Price Index. This area had an average
annual inflation rate from 1975 to 1979 of 7.9 percent.
.n_ '- --
~
CHAPTER V
FUTURE GROWTH TRENDS
The preceding chapters illustrated the socio-economic characteristics of Antelope Valley and the city of Palmdale in particular.
The
region as a whole grew steadily in population, housing, employment and
businesses during the past two decades.
Expansion in these areas was
particularly rapid in the past five years.
Palmdale, as an incorpor-
ated city since 1962, kept pace with the region•s growth, emerging as
the manufacturing center of the Valley.
Economic growth of the Valley and Palmdale in the next ten years
is dependent upon continuing expansion of the population, housing, and
existing businesses.
Growth of these factors will stimulate the dev-
elopment of new business activities, specifically retail and service
activities.
It is therefore desirable to investigate future growth
trends of the above stated factors.
Population, Housing and Employment Trends
Forecasts of the future population and houstng growth trends are
determined using the average annual growth rate.
Population increase
in Antelope Valley is expected to continue more rapidly than Los
Angeles County as a whole.
101 ,666.
The region•s current population figure is
This figure represents a gain of 23 percent in population
since 1970.
It compares with only a 2.5 percent overall gain in Los
Angeles County over the same time period.
In turn, Palmdale•s sphere
73
of influence currently represents 38,876 of the total Valley population figure; 12,113 of the sphere•s population reside in the city of
Palmdale.
While the Palmdale area attained a 23.7 percent growth gain,
the city shows a 42.3 percent gain from 1970 to 1980, or a 4.2 percent
annual gain.
Using an annual growth gain of approximately 3 percent, Antelope
Valley•s population is expected to increase at least 31,334 persons in
the next decade.
The population of Palmdale•s sphere of influence is
anticipated to increase by 10,724 by 1990, a 27.6 percent gain.
Popu-
lation by 1990 in the city of Palmdale is predicted as 17,239, again a
42.3 percent increase (Table 5-l, Fig. 5-1).
This continuing growth
in population suggests a corresponding growth in market size.
POPULATION TRENDS AND FORECAST
PALMDALE, SPHERE OF INFLUENCE AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
1970-1990
Year
City of
Palmdale
Palmdale
Region
Antelope
Va 11 e.}:':
1970
8,511
31 ,429
82,875
1980
12,113
38,876
101 ,666
1985
14,451
44,300
115,800
1990
17,239
49,600
133,000
Table 5-l
Sources:
1970 U. S. Census; 1980 U. S. Census;
Southern California Association of
Governments, ~·1ay 1978; 1985-1990
Planning Group, Los Angeles; Questor
Associates.
With a rapidly growing population, construction of an adequate
number of housing units is essential.
Again using the current growth
rate of units, approximately 6.8 percent annually, housing units in
74
Fig. 5-1: POPULATION GROWTH 1970- 1990
Population
( OOO's)
SOURCE: THE PLANNING GROUP, LOS ANGELES
160
I
I
Antelope Valley
-
140
~almdale
phere of Influence
..................
City of Palmdale
120
100
80
~
-
~
/
v
~
60
40
,.....
-~
~-
--- --- -
.._..,....
-~
-... -----
-~-
...............
20
...................... .......................
~-
.,_.
•••••
lie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
75
Antelope Valley are expected to number 68,935 by 1990.
This repre-
sents an increase of 68.1 percent, or 27,925 units, during the decade.
Of the total number of new housing units in the Valley, 23,812
will be attributed to Palmdale•s sphere of influence, representing a
The city of Palmdale is expected to increase
66.4 percent increase.
its housing to 7,714 units or 56 percent by 1990 (Table 5-2).
These
data suggest housing for the population increase should be adequate.
HOUSING TRENDS AND FORECAST
PALMDALE, SPHERE OF INFLUENCE AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
1970-1990
City of
Palmdale
Palmdale
Region
Antelope
Year
1970
2,816
10,610
27,044
1980
4,945
14,310
41 ,010
1985*
6,329
18,459
53,169
1990*
7,714
23,812
68,935
Valle~
*Based upon present gro\'Jth rate.
Table 5-2
Sources:
1970 U. S. Census; 1980 U.S. Census;
1985-1990 Planning Group, Los Angeles;
Antelope Valley Board of Trade.
Employment growth is expected to coincide with population growth
and the expansion plans of the Valley•s existing employers. 1 The
region•s employment base is expected to expand at an average annual
rate of 7.5 percent during the next five years, 1980 to 1985.
This
growth rate is consistent with the growth from 1959 to 1980 (Table 53).
Utilizing this percentage, approximately 8,400 new jobs will be
created over the next five years in the Valley.
Employment in the basic activities 2 is anticipated to expand
-·-
---
-
-
~·
-
76
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS
PALMDALE-LANCASTER LABOR MARKET AREA
1959-1980
Average Annual
Growth Rate*
Year
Employment
1959
12,200
1962
14 '150
5.1
1965
13,500
-1.6
1968
16,000
5.3
1973
23,525
8.0
1977
30,500
6.7
1980
37,985
7.6
*Compounded
Table 5-3
Sources:
California Department of Human Resources;
U. S. Census Bureau; Antelope Valley
Board of Trade; California Employment
Development Department.
77
rapidly from 1980 to 1985.
This, in turn, will stimulate employment
growth in the service activities 3 and promote further population inmigration.
In view of this anticipation, forecasts indicate producers,
manufacturers and wholesalers plus retail trade and services will comprise the Valley•s fastest-growing industries.
Existing firms in the
basic activity category are expected to grow at an average annual compounded rate of 11.0 percent, creating 6,318 new jobs.
Retail trade
and service businesses are expected to increase by 6.6 percent and 8.8
percent during the same time period, establishing 633 additional positions (Table 5-4).
Palmdale, as the manufacturing center of the Valley,
is expected to show significant growth in basic activities over the
next five years.
It is forecast that existing firms will increase
their employment by an average annual compounded rate of 6.7 percent.
The fastest-growing industries will be producers, manufacturers, wholesalers and construction contractors.
Retail trade and all services
will increase but not as significantly, thus increasing pressure on
Palmdale•s existing public service capacity (Table 5-5).
Expansion Plans and Employee Skill Requirements
To arrive at economic growth projections, the existing businesses in the Valley were surveyed as to their plans for expansion in the
future and the employee skill levels needed to support their economic
activities. 4 The businesses surveyed indicated a significant level of
facility expansion over the next five to ten years.
Approximately 22.6
percent of the employers stated their businesses would expand in 1981
for a total increase of 29.4 percent in physical space (Table 5-6).
Current employment among the firms surveyed is approximately
24,365, representing 64.1 percent of the Valley•s total employment.
78
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY
ANTELOPE VALLEY
1980
Total
Employment
Industry
Producers,
Manufacturers,
Wholesalers
1985
Tot a1
Employment
% Change
1980-1985
Average
Annual
% Change*
1980-1985
9,196
15,514
68.7
11.0
542
649
19.7
3.7
Government,
Business Services
7,621
7,713
1.2
0.2
Health and
Public Utilities
3,281
3,946
20.3
3.8
Retail Trade
1,282
1,764
37.6
6.6
288
439
52.4
8.8
Construction
Contractors
Retail Services
Weighted Average**
6.2
*Compounded
**Based on 1977 employment by industry in the Antelope Valley.
Table 5-4
Sources:
Antelope Valley Board of Trade; Qeustor
Associates Employer Survey.
p '
79
BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY
PALMDALE
% Change
1980-1985
Average
Annual
% Change*
1980-1985
Industr,x:
1980
1985
Producers,
Hanufacturers,
l~ho 1esa 1ers
5,550
11,770
112 '1
16.2
45
70
55.5
9.2
Government,
Business Services
684
767
12. 1
2.3
Health and
Public Utilities
76
78
2.6
0.5
Retail Trade
539
645
19.7
3.7
Retail Services
110
117
6.4
1.2
Construction
Cant ractors
** Weighted Average**
6.7
*Compounded
**Based on 1977 employment by industry in the Antelope Valley.
Table 5-5
Sources:
Antelope Valley Board of Trade; Questor
Employer Survey.
p '
80
The employee skill levels needed by these employers to support their
economic activities were ranked as follows: basic skills, technical
skills, professional skills, administrative and advanced professional
skills, and other skills. 5 Of the employers surveyed, 49 percent
needed employees with such qualities as personality and sales ability.
The economic structure of Antelope Valley is dominated by manufacturing, retail trade and services; therefore, Palmdale and Lancaster
employers generally require similar skill levels (Table 5-7).
requirements vary also by industry group.
Skill
Producers, manufacturers,
and wholesalers in the Valley need employees with technical, professional and other skills (Table 5-8).
Moreover, Palmdale's manufactur-
ers require a high percentage of technical and professional employees
because of their involvement in the aircraft and space industries.
Skill level requirements in the other industry groups are mainly the
same with the Palmdale employers as they are throughout the Valley
(Table 5-9).
The skill levels required by a majority of the employers
are for the basic and technical skills.
Advanced professional skills
are the least needed.
Air Transportation
This paper would be incomplete if mention of air transportation
were not discussed.
In 1980 the average number of passenger trips per
business was 38.9 (Table 5-10) and approximately 16.4 percent of all
Antelope Valley employers used air freight to some degree (Table 5-11).
Both direct and indirect economic benefits will result if the Palmdale
International Airport is constructed.
Direct benefits are those re-
sulting from operating, maintaining and providing services to users of
the airport facilities.
Indirect economic benefits result from busi-
81
PLANNED EXPANSION OF EXISTING FIRMS
ANTELOPE VALLEY
1981
Mean Square Feet
of Physical Space
Expansion of
Physical Space*
Industry Group
% of Firms
Expanding
Producers,
Manufacturers,
Wholesalers
33.3
179,341
35.9
Construction
Contractors
28.6
192 '140
44.3
Government,
Business Services
16.7
60 '115**
1.7
Health and
Public Utilities
35.7
59,700
8.2
Retail Trade
18.8
6,910
32.2
Retail Services
30.4
10,179
59.5
t4ei ghted Average 22.6
29.4
N = 200
*Expressed as a percentage of existing space.
**Not including Edwards Air Base. If Edwards were included,
the average would increase to 652,821 square feet.
Table 5-6
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey
02
EMPLOYEE SKILLS NEEDED BY EMPLOYERS
PALMDALE, LANCASTER AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
Palmdale
Ski 11 s Needed
Lancaster
Antelope Valley
Basic
22.3%
24.8%
24.5%
Technical
23.2
25.2
24.5
Professional
1o. 7
7.5
9.8
2.7
2. 1
1.8
41.1
40.1
39.4
TOTAL
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
N=
( 112)
(322)
(483)
Administrative/
Professional
Other
Table 5-7
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
EMPLOYEE SKILL NEEDS BY INDUSTRY GROUP
ANTELOPE VALLEY
Producers,
Manufacturers,
Wholesalers
Construction
Contractors
Government,
Business
Services
Health
Public Utility
Services
Basic
19.0%
27.3%
31.5%
22.2%
23.7%
29.2%
Technical
31.0
54.5
25.7
18.5
18.5
37.5
Professional
23.8
0.0
17.1
29.7
1.5
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.5
0.0
0.0
26.2
18.2
25.7
11.1
56.3
29.2
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100. 0~~
100.0%
100.0%
Skills Most
Needed
Administrative/
Professional
Other
TOTAL
Retai 1
Trade
Retail
Services
N = 274
Table 5-8
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
co
w
"'
EMPLOYEE SKILLS NEEDED BY INDUSTRY GROUP
PALMDALE
Producers,
Manufacturers,
Hholesalers
Skills Needed
Basic
0.0%
Government,
Business
Services
Health and
Public Utility
Services
22.2%
16.7%
28.2%
50.0%
Retail
Trade
Retail
Services
Technical
55.5
33.3
33.3
12.8
0.0
Professional
40.0
11 •1
16.7
2.6
0.0
Administrative/
Professional
5.0
o.o
16.7
0.0
0.0
Other
0.0
33.3
16.7
56.4
50.0
100.0%
99.9%
100.2%
100.0%
100.0%
TOTAL
N
= 66
Table 5-9
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
(X)
-::::-
35
BUSINESS GENERATED PASSENGER AIR TRAVEL
BY AIRPORT OF ORIGIN
Airport of Origin
Number of Trips
% of All Trips
Palmdale Airport
554
7.9
Los Angeles International
5' 143
73.3
Hollywood-Burbank
1,104
15.7
Orange County
6
0.1
Ontario International
7
0.1
Long Beach
1
0.0
203
2.9
7,018
100.0
Other
TOTAL
N = 180
Table 5-10
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
86
AIR FREIGHT SERVICE DEMAND
1980
Industr~
Percent of Industry
Using Air Freight
Groue
Percent of Total
Air Freight Users
Producers,
~1anufacturers,
Wholesalers
33.3
25.0
Construction
Contractors
0.0
0.0
Government,
Business Services
13.3
6.3
-Health and Public
Utility Services
15.4
6.3
Retail Trade
13.0
46.9
Retai 1 Services
23.8
15.6
16.4%*
TOTAL
100.1%
*Weighted Average
Table 5-11
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
87
nesses have been formulated with the development of this airport in
mind.
Two Antelope Valley employer groups, producers, manufacturers and
wholesalers and government and business service, demonstrate the greatest demand for air transportation (Table 5-12).
Of these two groups,
the producers, manufacturers and wholesalers account for the greatest
demand for both passenger service (Table 5-13) and air freight service
(Table 5-14). Forecasts anticipate growth in this industry in the next
five years at a greater rate than the local economy as a whole.
As
this industry group grows, the demand for increased air transportation
will grow also.
Summary
Projections indicate there will be major expansion in the
Antelope Valley's population and employment over the next ten years.
The Valley's population is expected to increase by 31,334 persons.
By 1990, the city of Palmdale will have a population of over 17,000.
Coinciding with the anticipated population growth and expansion plans
of existing businesses, the creation of 8,400 new jobs is expected.
The projected growth in these areas has been based on the anticipated
development of an international airport, the Valley's current low
housing costs and the expansion of the aircraft industry for defense.
These factors have encouraged employers to consider expansion and
should act as stimuli in the development of new businesses.
With these anticipated growth changes will come an increased demand for all services and retail activities.
New business development
plans in Palmdale should aim at expanding its economic base.
As the
population grows, the development of government, business and retail
p '
88
FREQUENCY OF AIR FREIGHT USE
BY INDUSTRY
Very Frequent
Industry Group
Frequent Occasionally
Total
Producers,
Manufacturers,
Wholesalers
42.9%
14.3%
42.8%
100.0%
Government and
Business Services
50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
Health and Public
Utility Services
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
Retai 1 Trade
21.4
7.2
71.4
100.0
Retail Services
40.0
20.0
40.0
100.0
N - 60
Table 5-12
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
NUMBER OF BUSINESS TRIPS REQUIRING
AIR TRANSPORTATION BY INDUSTRY
1980
Number
TriQ.L
Producers,
Manufacturers,
\•Jho 1esa 1ers
0-5
Construction
Contractors
Government,
Business
Services
Health and
Public Utility
Services
Retai 1
Trade
Reta i 1
Services
46.5%
85.7%
66.7%
64.3%
88.9%
85.0%
6-10
8.3
0.0
6.7
7. 1
6.5
5.0
11-25
16.7
14.3
6.7
0.0
2.8
5.0
26-50
4.2
0.0
13.3
21.4
0.9
5.0
51-100
8.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
101-200
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Over 200
16.0
0.0
6.6
7.2
0.9
0.0
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
TOTAL
N = 188
Table 5-13
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
co
\.0
PERCENTAGE OF YEARLY PRODUCTION SHIPPED
BY AIR FREIGHT USERS
1980
Producers,
Manufacturers,
Percentage
Shipped
t~holesa1ers
Less than 10%
Government,
Business
Services
Health and
Public Utility
Services
Retai 1
Trade
Retai 1
Services
66.7%
0.0%
100.0%
84.6%
20.0%
10-25%
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.4
60.0
26-50
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
51-75
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
76-90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
20.0
91-100
33.3
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
TOTAL
N = 27
Table 5-14
Source:
Questor Associates Employer Survey.
1..0
0
""
91
services will be essential to the city•s economic stability.
92
Footnotes
1Estimation is based on information obtained from the Antelope
Valley Board of Trade and Questor Associates• recent growth trend
analysis.
2Basic activities compose those activities of a community involved in the export of goods and services to firms or individuals
outisde the community•s economic boundaries.
3service activities include those enterprises which provide
for the needs of persons within the community•s economic limit.
4Refer to the Employer Survey in Appendix B.
5Basic skills are those developed at the high school level;
technical skills are those acquired in vocational or technical training; professional skills included those obtained with a college degree; administrative and advanced professional skills include those
requiring postgraduate or advanced training; other skills include
subjective qualities such as personality and sales ability.
.
-
CHAPTER VI
RESIDENTIAL AND
COt1t~ERCIAL
LAND USE
The preceding chapters illustrate the economy of Palmdale, one
of Antelope Valley•s major cities.
Utilizing the current commercial
structure and projected growth trends of Palmdale, several land use
strategies are proposed with a goal of rectifying the deficiencies and
developing potentials.
Proposed Land Use
The city of Palmdale is aware of the fact that potential benefits are being lost because of inadequate housing and lack of retail
and service businesses.
Toward rectifying these deficiencies, the
city has been exploring a number of plans.
The Palmdale Redevelopment
Agency is working with the city council and Planning Commission in
renovating Palmdale•s central business district and the construction
of additional housing.
A Community Development Corporation, in cooper-
ation with the United States Small Business Administration, has been
created by the city council.
Their function is to explore financing
and encourage commercial development.
The combined effort of these community agencies has resulted in
four main residential redevelopment areas.
These areas are, for the
most part, expansions of existing residential areas (Map 13).
The
construction of low interest, single-family housing, begun in 1980, is
progressing toward easing the acute housing shortage (Table 6-1).
Additionally, over 1000 apartment and condominium units have been con93
94
40th Street E.
0
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(/)
z
3 5th Street E.
0
1-
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95
SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING
PAU1DALE
1980-1981
Units
Constructed
Proposed
Constructed*
Manzanita Heights
Fifth Street West south of
Palmdale Boulevard
125
300
Va11 ey Vi s ta
West of Tenth Street West
77
100
Country Club area
North of Avenue P and east of
Tenth Street West
90
250
Harris Homes
Avenue R and Fifteenth
Street East
37
50
Casa Linda
Twenty-fifth Street East to
Thirtieth Street East between
Avenue R and Avenue S
177
250
Joshua Hills
Twenty-fifth Street East to
Thirtieth Street East south
of Avenue S
280
600
35
50
821
1 ,600
Area
Concord Estates
West of Tierra Subida and
north of Avenue S
TOTAL
Table 6-1
Sources:
Field Survey; Palmdale Redevelopment
Agency; Antelope Valley Board of Trade.
96
structed since early 1980 (Table 6-2),
The units being constructed
range in price from $60,000 to $180,000 and are offered at 9-7/8%
interest.
This price range places the units within the reach of the
majority of Palmdale residents (Table 6-3).
space industry is expanding in Palmdale.
Additionally, the aero-
The industry anticipates an
influx of 4,000 to 5,000 families into the city during the next few
years.
However, the majority of the housing units have sold before
this growth occurred.
These facts combined with Palmdale's current
vacancy rate of only one percent indicates the city will not be able
to house the anticipated population increase unless housing construction is rapidly expanded.
The Planning Commission and related agencies have also been
striving for commercial development in the city.
An earlier chapter
mentions the renovation of the central business district and the construction of new government and cultural buildings.
planning stage are three additional shopping centers.
Currently in the
Two centers are
planned on Palmdale Boulevard near Twentieth Street East.
One is to
be situated between Seventeenth Street East and Twentieth Street East,
the other at Twenty-fifth Street East where a large chain general
merchandise center has recently opened.
These centers are designed
to accommodate financial institutions, restaurants and other commercial establishments and to stimulate commercial activity in the eastern section of Palmdale.
The third shopping center is planned to
accomplish the same aim, commercial activity stimulation, for Palmdale's western section.
The location of this shopping center will be
on Palmdale Boulevard near Fifth Street West.
It is intended that
this center include an intertainment center and a number of specialty
97
HULTI-FANILY HOUSING
PALHDALE
1980-1981
Units Constructed
Area
Country Club Area (Condominiums)
North of Avenue P and east of Tenth
Street West
250
The Villas of Palmdale (Condominiums)
Avenue R-4 and Thirtieth Street East
56
Post Office Area
Ninth Street East to Eleventh Street
East
390
Fifth Street East Area
North of Palmdale Boulevard
242
Fifth Street East to Sixth Street East
South of Palmdale Boulevard
46
Division Street to Third Street East
South of Palmdale Boulevard
64
Lark Apartments
Avenue Q-12 and Eleventh Street East
Avenue Q-7, East of Division Street
48
36
TOTAL
Table 6-2
1,132
Sources:
Field Survey; Palmdale Redevelopment
Agency; Antelope Valley Board of Trade.
".
.........
-
-
98
RESIDENTIAL GRO\.JTH AREAS
PALMDALE
1980-1981
Present
Population*
Area Growth
Income
Range**
Desert View Highlands Area
West of Tenth Street West at
Avenue P-8
South of Palmdale Boulevard
between Division Street and Tenth
Street Hest
9,709
$15,000 - $50,000
Country Club Area
Avenue P between Tenth Street
West and Sierra Highway
4,000
$50,000 - $150,000
Joshua Hills Area
Twenty-fifth Street East to
Thirtieth Street East
south of Avenue S
7,500
$30,000 - $150,000
Sagetree Area
Twenty-fifth Street East to
Fortieth Street East between
Avenues R and S
5,500
$20,000 - $40,000
*Approximate present population due to monthly in and out-migration.
**Income range can be greater.
Table 6-3
Sources:
Field survey; Palmdale Redevelopment Agency.
99
stores.
In addition to the proposed commercial expansion, two large
industrial plants are to be built within the next two years at Thirtieth Street East and Avenue P (Map 14).
As has been mentioned previously, Palmdale can expect an increase in population and employment.
To gain the benefits of poten-
tial sales and tax revenues, the city must encourage the development
of additional housing, retail and service activities and manufacturing
within its limits.
Potential Land Use
Major considerations in locating retail, service and manufacturing activities are population, economic stability and accessibility.
Within the next decade predictions indicate Palmdale•s population will
be approximately 18,000.
Two factors influence this prediction.
First, low-cost housing is available.
A large number of units, both
single and multifamily, are currently under construction, and the construction of additional units in the near future is planned (note Map
13).
A second factor influencing population projections is the expan-
sion of the aerospace industry which will create 4,000 or more new
jobs.
Population density is paramount in developing retail and serv-
ice locations.
Studies suggest that consumers will attempt to mini-
mize the distance they must travel to shop by visiting the nearest
store to their home. 1 Again, noting Map 13 regarding residential expansion, an insight as to the optimal locations begins to form.
Three
areas of population concentration emerge: Desert View Highlands area,
extending from Fifth Street West to Eighteenth Street West and Avenues
R to P; Palmdale proper, Division Street to Fifteenth Street East and
Avenues R to P; and, Palmdale East, Fifteenth Street East to Thirtieth
INDUSTRIAL AREAS 1981
I.
Proposed Areas
Commercial
Industrial
0
•
SCALE
%
% Miles
+
N
......
0
0
101
Street East and Avenues S to Q.
Furthermore, this population consists
mainly of the middle income group.
Accessibility and traffic volume and patterns are the key to
optimum locations.
To analyze the flow and volume increase, a recent
survey was conducted.
A significant volume increase is evident since
1979 at key intersections (Table 6-4).
The main flow of traffic is
toward and on Palmdale Boulevard, the main east-west street of Palmdale
(Map 15).
Public transportation may prove an important factor in the
location of businesses.
such transportation.
Until recently the city has had little or no
However, this situation has changed during the
past year with the development of a daily scheduled bus route (Table
6-5) and bus stops along Palmdale Boulevard (Map 15).
Currently, a
major hindrance to accessibility is a street divider which runs the
length of Palmdale Boulevard.
Left turn lanes are at a minimum from
Tenth Street East to Twentieth Street East.
Although locations have
excellent visibility, ready accessibility is negligible.
This is a
problem which should be rectified in the near future to improve access to the available sites in this area.
Earlier studies indicate the city•s need for increased social
and public services.
This need is because of the high percentage of
elderly persons and the high fertility level in the city.
Steps to-
ward centrally housing the elderly have been developing with the construction of low-rent apartments in the post office area, Ningh Street
East to Eleventh Street East.
all shopping requirements.
This area is within walking distance of
Future renovation of the area from Palmdale
Boulevard to Avenue Q-10 and Sierra Highway to Tenth Street East should
include health and social services for the elderly and the very young
TRAFFIC VOLUME - PALMDALE
1981
Intersection
% Increase
Travel Direction
1979*
1981*
Palmdale Boulevard and
Sierra Highway
East and west on Palmdale
Boulevard
20,200
23,616
16.9
Palmdale Boulevard and
Tenth Street West
East on Palmdale Boulevard
18,561
19,680
6.0
Palmdale Boulevard and
Twentieth Street East
West on Palmdale Boulevard
10,500
11,808
12.5
Sierra Highway and
Avenue P
East and west on Avenue P
11,147
17,328
55.4
*Daily Volume
Table 6-4
Source:
Field survey.
--'
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103
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PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SCHEDULE
PAU.1DALE
1981
Daily Time
Number of Buses
Destination
7
Every 3 hrs. for 24 hrs.
Burbank
3
8 a.m. - 12 noon - 4 p.m.
Los Angeles
International Airport
6
Every 2 hrs.
Palmdale Boulevard
Lancaster
3
Every 2 hrs. from 9:30 a.m. Palmdale General
Hospital on Avenue S
to 3:30 p.m.
Table 6-5
Sources:
Field survey; Antelope Valley Bus, Inc.
105
The same area should incorporate some form of multifamily housing, especially for the elderly.
Again this would place them within walking
distance of all retail and service needs, as well as bus stops.
After analyzing the information and studies of the socio-economic characteristics of Palmdale, three areas within the city can be
considered as potential retail growth sites.
These areas are:
l) the
area west of the Antelope Valley Freeway along Palmdale Boulevard, 2)
the area along Palmdale Boulevard between Twentieth Street East and
Twenty-fifth Street East, and, 3) the area encompassed by Sierra Highway on the east, Avenue P on the south and Division Street on the west
(Map 16).
These areas are compatible with existing zoning regulations
(Table 6-6).
POTENTIAL GROWTH AREA ZONING
RETAIL AND SERVICE ACTIVITIES
Zone*
Area
Palmdale Boulevard between Tenth Street West
and Division Street
C-3 and CPO
Palmdale Boulevard between Twentieth Street East
and Twenty-fifth Street East
C-3
Sierra Highway at Avenue P to Division Street
C-3 and CPO
Palmdale Boulevard to Avenue Q-10 and Sierra
Highway to Tenth Street East
C-3 and R-3
*C-3 r~edium Commercial
CPO Commercial Planned Development
R-3 Residential-Medium Density Multiple
Table 6-6
The map of existing retail structures (Map 8, Appendix C) shows
that the majority of retailing in Palmdale is centrally located, concentrated between Division Street to the west and Tenth Street on the
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107
east.
The fringe areas, both west and east, consequently tend to be
attractive for retail and service activities.
Currently the majority
of retailing activities in the area west of the freeway consists of
motels, restaurants, fast-food establishments and gasoline service
stations.
Several factors enhance this area.
First, there is a large
number of existing residential units as well as a large number of new
units and units under construction (note Table 6-1).
A second factor
adding to the advantages of this area is the increased traffic volume
and flow from Tenth Street West traveling east on Palmdale Boulevard.
As noted earlier, consumers attempt to minimize the distance they must
travel to shop if possible.
With the establishment of new retail busi-
nesses in this area, consumers would have the incentive to reduce their
travel distance.
Other factors enhancing this area are the easy on-
and-off ramps of the nearby freeway, numerous bus stops along the
boulevard, and the close proximity of a number of motels.
Since this area already contains a number of fast-food businesses and gas stations, other retail activities are recommended.
Such
activities include a good department store and a number of specialty
shops.
Also recommended for this area is an entertainment center in-
cluding a movie theater.
Currently Palmdale has one very small the-
ater located in the center of the city.
The new entertainment activi-
ties should be successful since approximately 50 percent of Palmdale's
population is between the ages of 18 and 35, an entertainment oriented
age group.
The second potential retail growth site is in the area between
Twentieth and Twenty-fifth Streets East along Palmdale Boulevard (note
Map 16).
Presently, one gas station is occupying the southwest corner
p '
108
at the intersection of Twenty-fifth Street East and the boulevard.
This is an area of rapid residential expansion extending from south of
Avenue S to Avenue Rand north (note Map 13).
Twenty-fifth Street East
is also a direct travel route from the residential area to the airport
and industrial area of Palmdale.
is competition.
Another factor enhancing this area
In close proximity is a general merchandise store,
drugstore and several specialty shops.
Activities recommended for this
area are food stores, clothing stores, specialty shops, service activities, liquor store and a major restaurant.
The third potential retail growth area encompasses the area from
Sierra Highway to Division Street along Avenut P (note Map 16).
retail activities exist in this area currently.
No
The same advantages
occur in this area as the previous areas with the added incentive of
no existing retail activities.
New residential units, both single-
family and multifamily, are being constructed (note Map 13).
vol~me
Also the
of traffic on Avenue P from the industrial area has increased
greatly.
New retail firms would act as intervening opportunities for
shoppers traveling between the residential area and the major existing
retail center in Palmdale as well as Lancaster,
It would also offer
opportunities for shoppers enroute from place of work to their homes.
Recommended activities for this area could range from gas stations and
various service businesses to a shopping mall with varied retail firms
including a convenience food store, liquor store, specialty shops, and
other activities of similar market requirements.
Predictions indicate that Palmdale, as the manufacturing center
of the Valley, will have significant growth in basic activities.
Therefore, potential manufacturing areas should be investigated.
--109
Again three specific areas can
ing growth sites.
be~considered
as potential manufactur-
These areas are: 1) the area along Sierra Highway
between Avenues P and 0, 2) the area on the east side of Tenth Street
West between Avenues P and P-8, and, 3) the area between Fifteenth and
Twenty-fifth Streets East and Avenues P and Q (Map 16).
Currently
these three areas are compatible with existing zoning regulations
(Table 6-7).
POTENTIAL GROWTH AREA ZONING
MANUFACTURING
Zone*
Area
Sierra Highway between Avenues P and 0
t·1-2 and t·1PD
Tenth Street West between Avenues P and P-8
MPD
Fifth Street East to Twenty-fifth Street East
from Avenues P to Q
M-2 and M-A
*M-2 Medium Manufacturing and Industrial
M-A Aircraft Manufacturing
t1PD ~1anufacturi ng Plan ned Development
Table 6-7
The overall advantage of these areas is the close proximity to
the airport and/or a direct transportation route to the airport.
Also
present in the immediate vicinity are several freight-hauling businesses (note Map 8).
Since transportation is a crucial factor in the
location of industries, these areas incorporate optimum sites for manufacturers.
Palmdale is a rapidly growing community and promises to continue
to develop.
The projected population increase, the large number of
middle-income housing units under construction and in the planning
stage, and the emergence of new industries should provide a growing
-110
market for both new and existing retail and service businesses,
With
careful and thoughtful planning for its present and future needs, this
city can have a vital and thriving economy, an economy which realizes
all its potentials in both tax and sales revenues.
In the future,
Palmdale should emerge, not only as the manufacturing center, but as a
leading city in retailing and service activities of Antelope Valley.
111
Footnotes
1Discussion of consumer behavior can be found in: William
Applebaum and Saul B. Cohen, "The Dynamics of Store Trading Areas
and t~arket Equilibrium, .. Annuals, Association of American Geographers,
51 (March, 1961): 73-101; Brian J. L. Berry, ''Ribbon Developments in
the Urban Business Pattern, .. Annals, Association of American Geographers, 49 (June, 1959): 145-155; F. W. Baal and D. B. Johnson,
11
The Functions of Retail and Service Establishments on Commercial
Ribbons, .. Canadian Geographer, 9 (1965): 154-196; Saul B. Cohen and
11
~Jilliam Applebaum,
Evaluating Store Sites and Determining Store
Rents,'' Economic Geo{raphy, 36 (January, 1960): l-35; Ross L. Davies,
Marketing Geography London: Methuen & Co. Ltd,, 1976): 198-229.
CHAPTER VII
CONCLUSION
Initially, the city of Palmdale was a rural community on the
high desert.
Because of its geographical location, a gradual transi-
tion from agriculture to industry began in the late 1940's.
The air-
craft industry found the locality ideal for developing and testing
their products.
Consequently, Palmdale began converting from a
strictly rural area to the manufacturing center of Antelope Valley.
This conversion effected changes in the population and commercial
development of the city.
Development, however, was dependent upon the
basic industry, aircraft, which was subject to periodic economic fluctuations.
Therefore, an investigation of commercial and industrial
activities that would expand and stabilize Palmdale's economic base
was deemed feasible.
In developing such a plan, Palmdale's current
economic picture was assessed and future trends projected.
Palmdale has experienced a dramatic population growth, especially during the past ten years, 1970 to 1980.
42 percent gain occurred.
In this time span a
An additional 42 percent population growth
is conservatively forecast for the next ten years.
The data also dis-
close that 26.5 percent of Palmdale's employees reside outside the
city,
In this context, the first step in the development plan should
examine housing.
Examination of housing growth data in Palmdale reveals an in-
112
113
crease of 76 percent from 1970 to 1980.
The forecast indicates a 56
percent growth rate of new housing units for the next decade.
How-
ever, Palmdale•s vacancy rate for 1980 is only one percent, in contrast to a rate of four to seven percent generally considered necessary for a fluid and balanced housing market.
This being the case,
the city should increase the construction of new housing units, both
single and multi-family,
Expansion of housing to meet present and
future demands could be feasible.
Vacant land borders the established
residential areas allowing for expansion.
This fact, coupled with an
active Planning Commission, makes expansion probable, assuming current
interest rates drop.
Population data indicate that currently 20 percent of Palmdale•s
residents are 60 years of age and older.
Services, both social and
public, should be incorporated in the city•s redevelopment plan for
the business nucleus.
The data also establish that child-related
services are needed due to a high fertility rate and children under
the age of eighteen years.
Nursery schools, private and public, and
recreation-park areas should be considered.
Recreation areas should
be incorporated in each of the residential expansion plans to accommodate the needs of the increasing population.
Provision for recrea-
tional and cultural areas is important when anticipating a future
population influx due to the expansion of commercial and industrial
activities.
Palmdale, as the manufacturing center of Antelope Valley,
accounts for 79 percent of the total industrial employment of the
Valley.
The prediction is that existing basic activities will in-
crease their employment 6.7 percent annually for the next five years.
114
During this same time span 22.6 percent of existing businesses, both
service and basic, indicate intentions of expanding their facilities.
The future expansion of existing firms should parallel the introduction of new businesses.
expansion.
Several factors indicate the desirability of
One is that 46 percent of Palmdale•s work force is em-
ployed outside the city.
A second factor involves the shopping pat-
tern of Palmdale residents where one-third of the households shop in
Lancaster or elsewhere.
Thirdly, a high percentage of service acti-
vities, public and retail, are located in Lancaster.
In an effort to expand and stabilize Palmdale•s economic base,
commercial and manufacturing expansion zones have been proposed.
Three commercial areas are considered optimum location sites as a
result of their proximity to residential areas, traffic volume and
flow, accessibility and competition.
Various types of retail and
service activities have been suggested based on the population age
profile, shopping distance minimization, travel to place of work and
competition.
The manufacturing sites are considered optimum locations
due to the close proximity of transportation, air, rail and truck.
This study, combined with a forward-looking, active city council and
Planning Commission, could conceivably expand and stabilize the economic base of Palmdale.
As noted previously, Palmdale has become the manufacturing center of Antelope Valley.
Projection data indicate the city will main-
tain this role, while Lancaster will continue expanding as the retail
center of the Valley.
Currently, the two cities are steadily extend-
ing their growth, residential and commercial, toward each other.
An
overlapping of the two cities• boundaries is entirely probable during
115
the next decade.
This being the case, Palmdale and Lancaster should
consider regional planning in the near future.
Cooperative planning by the two cities should include government,
transportation and retail activities.
A regional government serving
both cities would solve several of Palmdale•s current public service
deficiencies, especially those serving the elderly.
During the past
year, a regional transportation plan has been developed,
The initial
efforts of this plan have been well received; however, the transportation network should be enlarged thus serving a considerable proportion of the area•s population.
A large regional shopping center
should be considered for the future for several reasons.
One reason
is the shopping patterns developed over a number of years by the
Valley•s residents, especially Palmdale•s residents, are difficult to
change.
Another is the projected data which indicate Palmdale•s eco-
nomic base will continue as manufacturing and Lancaster•s as retailservice.
With a large regional shopping center developed approximate-
ly at midpoint between the two cities, Palmdale could then encourage
the development of specialty retail and service businesses which would
best serve the local residents• needs,
Regional planning is a realistic outcome resulting from the data
presented herein.
Regional planning would not deter Palmdale•s effort
to expand and stabilize its economic base, but would most likely enhance the effort,
This study is open ended.
The economic picture of Palmdale is
changing even while this thesis is being written.
Such changes are
to be expected in a community where the economy is not static.
How-
ever, this study is not intended to present definitive answers for
~
.
116
Pa1mdale•s economic problems.
It is an examination of the city•s
economic growth over a twenty-year time period and an investigation
of commercial activities that would best expand and stabilize the
economy.
It is hoped this research will be of value as background
for future analyses of the community•s economic growth and development.
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Appendix A
Household Survey
The technique, Stratified Random Digit Dialing, is a representative probability sample of all households with telephones,
is performed in two stages.
The sample
First, the number of random telephone
numbers is arbitrarily selected.
Second, each prefix receives an
equal number of telephone numbers ensuring that each prefix has an
equal likelihood of obtaining completed interviews.
The household questionnaire, compiled by the Los Angeles County
Planning Group, consisted of questions segregated into seven major
categories: shopping patterns, travel demand, recreation, employment,
population, income, and housing (see Appendix B)
A total of 756
households were interviewed, representing a 70 percent response rate.
Employer Survey
Employers in Antelope Valley were selected systematically; every
fifth business in the retail sector and every third business from all
other industrial and service groups.
A total of 600 employers were
surveyed; 133 in Palmdale, 447 in Lancaster, and 20 major employers of
which five were located in Palmdale, three in Lancaster, and twelve
throughout Antelope Valley.
The questionnaire covered current and future employment, company
air travel patterns, air freight requirements, frequency of customer
visits and business expansion plans (see Appendix B).
The response
rate for major employers was 95 percent and for all other employers
36 percent.
@
125
Appendix B
Household Survey Questionnaire
1.
Where do you and your family shop for food, clothes, cosmetics
and drugs, household items, and services?
2.
What means of transportation do you most often use to get to
where you usually shop?
3.
How many minutes is it one-way from your home to where you
usually shop?
4.
In an average month, how many times do you have to go outside
of Palmdale for shopping?
5.
What cities or towns do you shop in when you go outside of
Palmdale?
6.
Do you shop outside of Palmdale because you can•t get what you
want here or because you enjoy shopping at different places?
7.
What products or services do you generally buy outside of
Palmdale?
8,
In an average month, how often do you or any member of your
family go outside of Palmdale for recreational, leisure or
cultural activities?
9.
What do you like to do and where do you go?
10.
In the past twelve months, how many times have you gone to an
airport for any reason and which airport?
11.
What is your age?
12.
What is the highest grade in school you have completed and received credit for?
13.
What is your present employment status?
14.
How many minutes is it one-way from your home to where you work?
15.
In what city or town do you work?
16.
What means of transportation do you use for most of your trips
to work?
17.
What kind of work do you do? What is your main occupation?
'
126
18.
Including yourself, how many adults and children regularly live
in this household?
19.
Including yourself, how many people in your household are age 18
or older?
20.
Including yourself, how many people in your household are currently working either full-time or part-time?
21.
Including yourself, how many people in your household are age 65
or older?
22.
How many children are there in your household age 0-4?
23.
How many women are in your household age 18-50?
24.
What income group are you in?
25.
Do you live in a house, an apartment, a condominium, a mobile
home or something else?
26.
Do you own your residence or pay rent?
27.
How much is your monthly mortgage or rent?
-28.
How long have you lived in Palmdale?
29.
Where did you live before you first came to Palmdale?
30.
How long have you lived at your present address?
31.
What ethnic background or heritage group best describes you?
32.
Do you have any other different telephone numbers at this
residence?
33.
Including this one, how many different telephone numbers do you
have here?
34.
How many bedrooms are in your house?
35.
How many bathrooms are in your house?
36.
Is your home newly constructed?
37.
What main intersection or road is nearest your home?
127
Employer Survey Questionnaire
1.
How many employees are presently in your organization?
2.
Are any of your employees military personnel?
3.
Specify the number of civilian and military personnel in your
organization.
4.
How many of yoru employees are male; how many female?
5.
How many employees will be in your organization as of December
31' 1980?
6.
What will be your projected total employment for 1981?
7.
What will be your projected total employment for 1985?
8.
What do you perceive to be the most important skills your
employees need?
9.
How many employees reside in Palmdale?
10.
How many employees reside outside of Palmdale?
11.
How do the majority of your employees travel to work?
12.
Does your organization provide transportation for the employees?
13.
What is your annual payroll?
14.
What percent of your annual payroll is paid to employees residing out of your immediate city?
15.
How many business-related trips requiring air transportation
did members of your organization take from January 1, 1979
through December 31, 1979?
16.
How many business-related trips requiring air transportation
will members of your organization take for the year ending
December 31, 1980?
17.
Of the total number of business trips using air transportation
during 1979, how many were to destinations with distances of
0-500 miles, 500-1000 miles, 1000-2000 miles, 2000-2500 miles,
over 2500 miles?
18.
Specify the six places most frequently traveled to by members
of your organization.
128
19.
Of the total number of trips taken in 1979, how many trips originated from Palmdale Airport, Los Angeles International Airport,
Hollywood-Burbank Airport, Orange County Airport, Ontario International Airport, Long Beach Airport, other airports?
20.
Does your company ship any products by air?
21.
How frequently do you use air freight?
22.
What percentage of yearly production was shipped by air in 1979?
23.
What percentage of yearly production do you expect to be shipped
by air in 1980?
24.
What percentage of yearly production do you expect to be shipped
by air by 1985?
25.
Of the production shipped by air in 1979, what percentage originated at LAX, Hollywood-Burbank, Orange County, Ontario International, Long Beach, other?
26.
Of the production shipped by air in 1979, what percentage had a
destination located within California, Midwest, Southwest,
Northeast, Southeast, International?
27.
In the course of your business-related operations, do customers
visit you from outside your local area?
28.
List in order of frequency the most common mode of travel your
customers use.
29.
When visiting, how long do your customers stay in the area?
30.
Do your customers use hotels near your place of business?
31.
List the three most common places (locations) your customers
stay.
32.
What is the total square footage of building(s) you are currently
occupying?
33.
What percentage of this space is production, administrative,
warehouse?
34.
Are you planning any construction or leasing of space over the
next 12 months?
35.
Are you planning to lease or construct space?
36.
How many square feet will be leased (constructed)?
37.
Where will the new space be added?
I ~
129
38.
What type of activity will be located in the new space?
39.
How much additional space do you anticipate adding between
1982-1985?
40.
Where will this space be located?
41.
Considering your business expansion plans, indicate how important each of the following factors were in making your decision:
cost of industrial land, suitability of industrial land parcels,
local utility service and costs, taxes, availability of professional or skilled labor, availability of unskilled labor, cost
of labor, community attitudes, housing costs, availability of
housing, adequacy of transportation system, commuting time,
cost of compliance with air/water quality regulations, future
availablity of energy.
42.
Specify the percent of your firm~s products produced in Antelope
Valley and sold to the following groups: Federal government,
state and local government, other manufacturers, other businesses for final use, other consumers.
43.
Specify the percent sold in the following geographic locations:
Palmdale, Lancaster, rest of Antelope Valley, rest of California,
rest of United States, foreign.
44.
What were your company's total 1979 sales?
45.
What percent of your overall production do you subcontract to
businesses in Antelope Valley, in California, out of California,
foreign?
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Appendix C
THE COMMERCIAL STRUCTURE OF PALMDALE
1980
Nap 8
(Large map to be contained in a packet)