Housing Finance Policy Center
Lunchtime Data Talk
Mortgage Origination—Pricing and
Volume: More than You Ever
Wanted to Know
Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac
Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers
Association
October 16, 2013
1
Primary Mortgage Market Survey
and Refinancing Report
Urban Institute Lunchtime Data Seminar
October 16, 2013
Frank E. Nothaft
Chief Economist
2
Data, Data, Data
 Primary Mortgage Market Survey


Longest weekly national survey of rates: 42½ years and counting
30-year & 15-year FRMs, 5/1 & 1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs
 Refinance Report


Cash-out, Cash-in, Rate & Term
Product transition: FRM vs ARM, 30-year vs shorter-term
 Single-family Mortgage Originations: Science and Art


Benchmark to latest HMDA
Potpourri of data to estimate current-year volume
Office of the Chief Economist
3
Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)
 Freddie Mac introduced the weekly PMMS in April 1971
 Business need was real-time market rates to set secondary market pricing
 Today the PMMS surveys over 100 lenders (representative mix) each
week to obtain primary market quotes on 4 conventional products
 30-year FRM, 15-year FRM, 5/1 Treasury-indexed Hybrid ARM, 1-year
Treasury-indexed ARM
 80% LTV, prime-credit, purchase-money, conforming ($200,000)
 Survey conducted Monday-Wednesday; Results released every Thursday
(day before if holiday)
 http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/
 Other PMMS products include monthly Refinance Share and ARM
share of applications and annual ARM pricing survey
 http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/tab_arm.html
 http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/arm_archives.htm
Office of the Chief Economist
4
PMMS: Longest Weekly, National Survey of Rates
Percent
Percent
20.0
20.0
30-year Fixed-Rate
Mortgage
17.0
17.0
14.0
14.0
11.0
11.0
8.0
8.0
1-year ARM
5.0
2.0
1971
5.0
2.0
1977
1983
Source: Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey
1989
1995
2001
2007
2013
Office of the Chief Economist
5
PMMS Is Widely Used and Cited
 The Conventional Mortgage Rate on Fed’s H.15

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/
 Ingredient for defining high-priced loans


FFIEC’s Average Prime Offer Rate (APOR) used for determining high-priced
loans for HMDA reporting and HOEPA statements
(http://www.ffiec.gov/ratespread/newcalchelp.aspx#9)
New York statute uses PMMS + 1.75% to define ‘subprime home loans’
(Banking Law §6-m)
 Widely cited in media

Nearly 1,000 mentions every week and many, many more tweets
Office of the Chief Economist
6
Selected Contract Rates on Conforming 30-Year
Fixed Mortgages
Percent
6.0
PMMS
MIRS (t-1)
MBA
HSH
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Sources: Freddie Mac, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Mortgage Bakers Association and
HSH Associates.
Office of the Chief Economist
7
Selected Fees and Points on Conforming
30-Year Fixed Mortgages
Percent
1.6
PMMS
MIRS(t-1)
MBA
HSH
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Sources: Freddie Mac, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Mortgage Bakers Association and
HSH Associates.
Office of the Chief Economist
8
HSH Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage
Contract Rate Spread to PMMS
Basis Points (HSH less PMMS)
25
20
Average spread 12 basis points
15
10
5
0
2010
2011
Sources: Freddie Mac and HSH Associates.
2012
2013
Office of the Chief Economist
9
HSH Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage
Effective Contract Spread to PMMS
Basis Points (HSH less PMMS, adjusted for points)
15
10
Average spread 0.6 basis points
5
0
-5
-10
2010
2011
2012
Sources: Freddie Mac and HSH Associates; assumes the MBA’s conversion factor between
The contract rate and fees & points
2013
Office of the Chief Economist
10
Conversion Factor Between Fees & Points and
Interest Rate for Conforming 30-Year FRMs
Conversion Factor (“DVO1”)
9
MIRS
8
7
6
5
MBA
4
3
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, FHFA
Office of the Chief Economist
11
Why are PMMS’ Contract Rates Lower Than
MBA’s?
Office of the Chief Economist
12
Loan Product, Purpose, Amount, and Credit
Characteristics Explain Most of Difference
Office of the Chief Economist
13
Need to Adjust for Points as Well
Office of the Chief Economist
14
Adjusting for Points, Mean Difference = 5 bps
Office of the Chief Economist
15
Quarterly Refinance Report
 Built on “repeat transactions” loan data
 Freddie Mac owns two successive first liens on house
 Second transaction is a refinance
 Compare the paid-off loan with the new loan




Pre- and post-loan balance (“Cash-out”, “Cash-in”, “Rate & Term”)
Pre- and post-contract rate
Pre- and post-loan products (‘product transition’)
Estimates of aggregate home equity extraction
 Located at: http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/
Office of the Chief Economist
16
New Mortgage Rate Lows Create Refinance
Booms
Refinance Share of Applications (Percent)
90
1992-93
Boom
80
30-Year FRM Rate (Percent)
1998
Boom
12
2009-13
Boom
2001-04
Boom
11
70
10
60
9
50
8
40
7
30
6
20
5
Sources: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.
4
3
2013
2012
2011
2010
2008
2007
2006
FRM Rate
(right axis)
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
0
1994
Refinance Share of Applications
(left axis)
2009
10
Office of the Chief Economist
17
31% Shortened Loan Term When Refinancing
80%
70%
65%
60%
50%
40%
30%
31%
20%
10%
4%
Shorter Term
Same Term
Source: Freddie Mac Product Transition data. Balloons are excluded from the analysis.
Percentages rounded to nearest whole number.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0%
Longer Term
Office of the Chief Economist
18
15% Took “Cash-Out” At Refinance vs. 89% in
Q3 2006
100%
90%
83%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
15%
10%
2%
Cash-Out Share
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
No Change
Source: Freddie Mac Cash-Out Refinance Report data. Second quarter 2013.
Percentages rounded to the nearest whole number.
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0%
Cash-In Share
Office of the Chief Economist
19
Borrowers Cashed-Out About $9 Billion When
Refinancing in 2013Q2
$100
Dollars of Equity
Cashed-Out (Left)
90
Refinance Share of
Applications (Right)
80
70
$80
60
50
$60
40
$40
30
20
$20
10
Source: Freddie Mac, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Consumer Price Index)
Second Quarter 2013, Equity cashed-out adjusted for inflation.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0
1993
$0
Refinance Share of Mortgage Applications
(In Percent)
Net Equity Cashed-Out in Refinance of Prime
Conventional Loans (billions, In 2012 dollars)
$120
Office of the Chief Economist
20
Discussion of MBA Mortgage Market Data
October 16, 2013
Mike Fratantoni
Vice President, Single-family Research & Policy Development
mfratantoni@mba.org
Presented by
David H. Stevens
President, Mortgage Bankers Association
21
Overview
For more than twenty years, MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey (or the Survey, or Weekly
Apps) has provided a timely indicator of housing and mortgage market activity. Since the
survey’s inception in 1990, its indices have been a leading indicator of housing and
mortgage finance activity.
All unadjusted indexes are set equal to 100.00 for the week of March 16, 1990.
Beginning with data from the week of September 16, 2011, released on September 21,
2011, MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey was enhanced along a number of dimensions:
•
•
•
Due to recruitment of new participants, MBA estimates the survey now captures more than 75% of all
retail and direct channel mortgage applications, compared to 50% previously.
There is now significantly more detail regarding the composition of applications, including the
geographic and product mix of applications.
MBA has collected additional information regarding mortgage rates. In addition to the rates previously
reported, MBA now also reports on 5/1 ARM rates and 30-year fixed rates for jumbo loans.
22
Channel Mix: Large Lenders (% of Total Production $)
8%
7%
9%
8%
14%
13%
17%
15%
23%
Direct
18%
14%
21%
18%
25%
13%
31%
29%
37%
Corr
36%
33%
33%
39%
40%
31%
45%
24%
Broker
33%
11%
19%
11%
Retail
39%
39%
40%
39%
31%
29%
33%
28%
27%
2010
2011
22%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2012
Source: MBA/STRATMOR Peer Group Survey
23
2012 Channel Mix by Peer Group
2%
13%
Consumer
Direct
23%
17%
31%
10%
Corr
10%
36%
Broker
20%
8%
80%
77%
Retail
39%
32%
Large Banks
Mid-Size Banks
Large Independents
Mid-Size Independents
Source: MBA/STRATMOR Peer Group Survey
24
Purchase Index - Historical
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
25
Purchase Index – Recent Activity
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
26
Purchase Apps and Home Sales
•Historically, the purchase applications index has been highly correlated with
and has led home sales data by 4-6 weeks.
•In the past few years, a rising cash share of purchases, changes in the share of
applications going through the retail and consumer direct channels, and
changes in the home sales data have led to some separation.
27
Refinance Index - Historical
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
28
Refinance Index – Recent Activity
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
29
2000 - Jan
2000 - Apr
2000 - Jul
2000 - Oct
2001 - Jan
2001 - Apr
2001 - Jul
2001 - Oct
2002 - Jan
2002 - Apr
2002 - Jul
2002 - Oct
2003 - Jan
2003 - Apr
2003 - Jul
2003 - Oct
2004 - Jan
2004 - Apr
2004 - Jul
2004 - Oct
2005 - Jan
2005 - Apr
2005 - Jul
2005 - Oct
2006 - Jan
2006 - Apr
2006 - Jul
2006 - Oct
2007 - Jan
2007 - Apr
2007 - Jul
2007 - Oct
2008 - Jan
2008 - Apr
2008 - Jul
2008 - Oct
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
Prepay Speeds and Refinance Apps
10000
80
9000
70
8000
60
7000
6000
50
5000
40
4000
30
3000
20
2000
1000
10
0
0
MBA Index Applications for Refinancing
FNMA MBS Annualized Liquidation Rates
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae Monthly Volume Summaries
30
Additional Data Available on a Monthly Basis
Composition
Monthly state
report for US
profile of
mortgage
activity
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
31
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
CA
FL
TX
NY
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
State-level Refinance Apps Trend
Year over Year Change in Refinance Applications
Top 5 Refinance Volume States
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
GA
32
State-level Purchase Apps Trend
Purchase Share - 2013 versus 2012
Top 5 Purchase Volume States
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CA
FL
September 2012
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
TX
NY
WA
September 2013
33
Discussion of New Mortgage Rate Series
Each week mortgage lenders report their weekly interest rates and associated points in
the Survey along with their mortgage application volumes. For conventional loans, the
contract interest rates are for an 80% loan-to-value (LTV) loan. FHA loans have higher
average LTVs. The points measure includes both origination fees and discount points.
The following interest rates are covered:
FRM 30-Year (Conforming)
FRM 15-Year
FRM 30-year Jumbo
5/1 ARM
FHA 203(b)
Survey participants must contribute a minimum number of each loan type to enter the
calculation.
34
Comparison of MBA and Freddie Mac Survey 30-Year
Fixed Rates
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac
35
Jumbo-Conforming Spread
36
RefiShareofConfLoans
August 2013
June 2013
April 2013
February 2013
December 2012
October 2012
August 2012
June 2012
April 2012
February 2012
December 2011
October 2011
August 2011
June 2011
April 2011
February 2011
December 2010
October 2010
August 2010
June 2010
April 2010
February 2010
December 2009
October 2009
August 2009
June 2009
Jumbos Have a Lower Refi Share
Refi Share of Conforming Loans and Refi Share of Jumbo Loans
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
RefiShareofJumboLoans
37
June 2009
July 2009
August 2009
September 2009
October 2009
November 2009
December 2009
January 2010
February 2010
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010
June 2010
July 2010
August 2010
September 2010
October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011
March 2011
April 2011
May 2011
June 2011
July 2011
August 2011
September 2011
October 2011
November 2011
December 2011
January 2012
February 2012
March 2012
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August 2012
September 2012
October 2012
November 2012
December 2012
January 2013
February 2013
March 2013
April 2013
May 2013
June 2013
July 2013
August 2013
ARM Share
ARM Share of Jumbo, Conforming and Total Loans
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
ARMShareofJumboLoans
ARMShareofConfLoans
ARMShareofTotalLoans
38
Credit Availability Index
•The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) is calculated using several quantitative metrics related to borrower eligibility
•Credit score, loan type, loan-to-value ratio, etc.
AllRegs ®
Market
Clarity
Data
MBA
Proprietary
Model
Mortgage
Credit
Availability
Index
•Metrics are combined to calculate the MCAI, a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.
•MCAI is a measure of mortgage credit supplied to the market.
•Unlike survey measures which only capture whether lending provisions are tightening or loosening, the MCAI provides a standardized quantitative metric
that is solely focused on mortgage credit.
39
AllRegs Data, Processing by MBA
• Transformation of AllRegs Market Clarity Data by MBA analyst.
• TERM:
Original = “5,10,15,30”
Transformation: Min Term=5; Max Term=30
• PURPOSE:
Original = “Cash Out Refinance, Purchase, Rate and Term Refinance”
Transformation: “Allows Cash Out”
• Granular data is categorized for standardization and analysis.
• MAX LTV
Original = 95.6 OR 95 OR 92 OR 98.5, etc…..
Transformation =
° LTV <=90
° LTV >90 and <=95
° LTV >95
40
7 Dimensions of Risk Weighting
Amortization
IO/Amortization
Product_Type Weight
FIXED
ARM
BALLOON
Int_Only_Flag
NON-IO
NON-IO
NON-IO
INTEREST ONLY
INTEREST ONLY
INTEREST ONLY
Loan Purpose
Product_Type Weight
FIXED
ARM
BALLOON
FIXED
ARM
BALLOON
purpose_ROLLUP
Allows Rate/Term Refi, Not Cash Out
Allows Cash Out Refi
Purchase Transactions Only
Weight
Loan Term
term_ROLLUP
Max Term <= 30
Max Term >30
Doc.Type
Doc_Type_ROLLUP
Weight
Weight
FULL/ALT DOC
STATED DOCUMENTATION (Anywhere the word *Stated* appears)
NO DOC (Anywhere the word *NO* is mentioned, excludes any entries with the word *STATED*)
LTV / Occupancy Joint
Max_LTV_Bracket
LTV <=90
LTV >90 and <=95
LTV >95
LTV <=90
LTV >90 and <=95
LTV >95
LTV <=90
LTV >90 and <=95
LTV >95
occupancy_ROLLUP
Allows Investor Homes
Allows Investor Homes
Allows Investor Homes
Allows Second Homes, Not Investor
Allows Second Homes, Not Investor
Allows Second Homes, Not Investor
Owner Occupied Only
Owner Occupied Only
Owner Occupied Only
FICO / LTV Combo
Weight
Max_LTV_Bracket
LTV >95
LTV <=90
LTV >90 and <=95
LTV >95
LTV >90 and <=95
LTV <=90
LTV <=90
LTV >95
LTV >90 and <=95
Min_FICO_Bracket
FICO <=620
FICO <=620
FICO <=620
FICO >620 and <=680
FICO >620 and <=680
FICO >620 and <=680
FICO >680
FICO >680
FICO >680
Weight
41
Historical Simulation
Histoical Simulation: Mortgage Credit Availability Index, Index Level by Month
(NSA, 3/2012=100)
900
Simulated 2006-2007 Index Value
Relative 3/2012=100 Base Period
800
Reading the Mortgage Credit
Availability Index
Lower Index = Less Credit Available
700
600
Current Index Levels
(3/2012 = 100)
Higher Index = More Credit
Available
500
400
300
200
100
5/1/2013
3/1/2013
1/1/2013
9/1/2012
11/1/2012
7/1/2012
5/1/2012
3/1/2012
1/1/2012
9/1/2011
11/1/2011
7/1/2011
5/1/2011
3/1/2011
1/1/2011
9/1/2010
11/1/2010
7/1/2010
5/1/2010
3/1/2010
1/1/2010
9/1/2009
11/1/2009
7/1/2009
5/1/2009
3/1/2009
1/1/2009
9/1/2008
11/1/2008
7/1/2008
5/1/2008
3/1/2008
1/1/2008
9/1/2007
11/1/2007
7/1/2007
5/1/2007
3/1/2007
0
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, AllRegs Market Clarity
•AllRegs and MBA examined guidelines from the ‘06-’07 period and estimate that the Mortgage Credit
Availability Index was probably somewhere between 750 and 850 during this period.
•This was due to the high availability of low-doc; no-doc; stated income; interest-only loans.
•Also, the lending environment during that time made drawing cash against the equity in a home a
common and accessible industry trend, making credit more available during that time while also
carrying a high amount of risk.
42
Current Trends in the MCAI
•The MCAI is benchmarked to an index value of 100 in March 2012. Relative to the base
period (March 2012), index values above 100 represent greater availability of mortgage
credit while index values below 100 are an indication that mortgage lending standards
have tightened.
Source: MBA MCAI
43
Builder Application Survey
•The MBA’s Builder Application Survey (BAS) measures loan application
activity received by lenders affiliated with or who work in cooperation with
home builders for loans on new single-family properties. This survey
focuses solely on the new home sales market.
•The monthly BAS Press Release will track changes in national
application volume, average loan size and loan products used for new
home sales purchases. The MBA will also release a New Home Sales
estimate.
•Release Date – Second Week of the Month
•As the survey continues to expand, the MBA expects to phase in more
detailed information including state- and metropolitan-level statistics.
44
Builder Application Survey (NSA)
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
140
130
110
180
100
160
90
140
70
60
WAS Index Level
Jan-11
BAS Index Level
Comparison of Index Levels
New Home Market versus Total Market
260
240
120
220
200
80
120
100
80
60
Date
Weekly Application Survey Purchase Index (NSA)
45
Census NHS (NSA)
Aug_13
Jul_13
Jun_13
May_13
Apr_13
Mar_13
Feb_13
Jan_13
Dec_12
Nov_12
Oct_12
Sep_12
Aug_12
Jul_12
June_12
May_12
Apr_12
Mar_12
Feb_12
Jan_12
Dec_11
Nov_11
Oct_11
Sep_11
Aug_11
Jul_11
June_11
May_11
Apr_11
Mar_11
Feb_11
Jan_11
New Home Sales Estimate
Census New Home Sales vs MBA New Homes Sales Estimate
Monthly, NSA
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
MBA NHS Prediction
46
Builder App Trends by State
47
Single-family Originations: Science and Art
 Benchmark to latest HMDA

Compare volume reported sold to Freddie Mac with our purchase volume





2012 originations sold to Freddie Mac in 2012
2011 originations sold to Freddie Mac in 2012 by a wholesaler
HMDA volumes totaled about 95% of Freddie Mac’s purchase volume
Conventional originations reported in 2012 HMDA = $1.66 trillion, thus
$1.66/0.95 = $1.75 trillion conventional originations (1st and junior liens)
Add FHA+VA+USDA = $0.38 trillion, puts 2012 single-family at $2.13 trillion
 MBA data helps gauge recent activity



Dollar application volumes not released by MBA
Compare conventional applications in 2012 HMDA with average MBA index for
conventional applications
Use ratio to convert current-year index into application volume
Office of the Chief Economist
48
Mortgage Origination Volume Is Large and
Variable
$4,000
$3,750
$3,500
$3,250
$3,000
$2,750
$2,500
$2,250
$2,000
$1,750
$1,500
$1,250
$1,000
$750
$500
$250
$0
Total Single-Family Mortgage Originations (Billions of Dollars)
FHA & VA
Conventional Refi
Forecast
Coventional Purchase
25%
Drop
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Sources: Freddie Mac, HUD, VA
49
Weekly Conventional Application Volume1
$ Billions
Purchase up 12%
Refi down 68%
(same week, Y-O-Y)
60
50
40
30
Conv Refi,
$17.8 B
20
10
Conv Purch,
$12.1 B
0
10/5/12 11/5/12 12/5/12
1/5/13
2/5/13
3/5/13
4/5/13
5/5/13
6/5/13
Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey, Conventional Market (NSA), HMDA, Freddie Mac
1The MBA Survey does not release dollar application volume, but using 2012 HMDA
as a base year, we estimate market level application dollar volume.
7/5/13
8/5/13
9/5/13
50
Where to Get More Information
Look for regular updates to our economic forecast,
commentary and data at
www.FreddieMac.com/news/finance
Contact us at chief_economist@freddiemac.com
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's Office of
the Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, should not be
construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without
notice. Although the Office of the Chief Economist attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not
guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose.
Information from this document may be used with proper attribution. Alteration of this document is prohibited.
© 2013 by Freddie Mac.
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Outlook for 2013 and 2014
2012
2013
2014
GDP Growth
1.8%
1.7%
2.5%
Inflation
1.9%
2.1%
1.9%
Unemployment
8.1%
7.5%
7.0%
Fed Funds
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
10-year Treasury
1.8%
2.3%
3.0%
30-year Mortgage
3.7%
4.1%
4.9%
Refi originations ($ B)
1,247
973
388
Purchase originations ($B)
503
619
703
New Home sales (thousand)
364
465
493
4,634
5,070
5,362
Existing home Sales (thousand)
Source: MBA August 2013 Forecast
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Estimated Originations 1990 to 2014: SF Market
Source: MBA – August 2013 Mortgage Finance Forecast
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Contact Information & MBA Resources
Michael Fratantoni
Vice President, Single-family Research and Policy Development
mfratantoni@mba.org
(202) 557-2935
MBA Homepage:
www.mba.org
MBA Research:
www.mba.org/research
MBA Weekly Apps (Main page, FAQ, Methodology Document):
www.mortgagebankers.org/WeeklyApps
Builder Application Survey:
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/researchandforecasts/builderapps.htm
MCAI Product Page:
www.mortgagebankers.org/MortgageCredit
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