Mutual Fund Investors: Divergent Profiles Alan Palmiter & Ahmed Taha Wake Law

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Mutual Fund Investors:

Divergent Profiles

Alan Palmiter & Ahmed Taha

Wake Law

01 Oct 07

A pop quiz …

1. Mutual funds are primarily owned by: a. Individuals on their own b. Individuals with retirement accounts c. Institutional investors

2. Mutual funds mostly invest in: a. Stocks b. Bonds c. Notes (money market)

3. What have been annual returns (1926-2004): a. Small-cap stocks b. Large-cap stocks c. Corporate bonds d. Treasury bills

4. Warren Buffet predicts that annual US stock returns over the next 10 years will be: a. 6.5% b. 9.6% c. 12.3% d. 21.7%

5. Past performance of stock funds generally predicts future returns.

a. Yes b. No c. Only low-performing funds

6. Mutual fund investors say they pay attention more to fees than to performance.

a. True b. False

7. As a mutual fund investor, you are entitled to: a. Prospectus (before you invest) b. Annual report (showing fund performance) c. Statements (breakdown of expenses / fees / trading costs)

10. What is a no-load fund?

a. An unleveraged fund b. A fund without sales charges c. A fund without trading costs d. A fund without withdrawal fees

8. Mutual funds only impose a sales charge at the time you invest.

a. True b. False

11. Think about your own largest mutual fund. What is -a. Your current balance b.

Fund’s investment objectives c.

Fund’s sales charges, expense ratio, trading costs d.

Fund’s performance last year

9. Annual rate that average stock fund sells and replaces stock

(turnover) in its portfolio: a. 6% b. 56% c. 90% d. 153%

12. Consider your car/vehicle: a. Its make, model, year b. Its cost, MSRP, total miles, safety rating, gas efficiency c. You get our point

US mutual fund market …

US Households

(112 million)

Own mutual funds

(55 million / 49%)

Demand-side

On own

46%

Broker

79%

Direct

29%

Retirement account

54%

IRAs

48%

DC plans

52%

Stocks

60%

Mutual funds

($11.3 T)

Bonds

17%

Money Mkt

23%

Fund Types

Supply-side mutual fund market …

Mutual fund market

Next 15 groups

(35%)

Top 10 groups

(38%)

Rest

(27%)

Financial retirement market

Mutual

Funds

(27%)

Asset classes

(risk/return primer)

Asset Classes

(1926-2004)

Small Company Stocks

Large Company Stocks

Long-Term Corporate Bonds

Treasury Bills

Average

Return

12.7%

10.4%

5.4%

3.7%

Standard

Deviation

33.1%

20.3%

9.3%

3.1%

12.7%

Effect of investing

$10,000 for 20 years …

3.7%

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

$10,000

$10,000 (invested over 20 years)

Small Company Stocks,

$109,264

Large Company Stocks,

$72,340

Long-Term Corporate

Bonds, $28,629

Treasury Bills, $20,681

Mutual fund investor profiles

(demand-side)

Industry profile

Information before purchasing

Fund investors (outside retirement plans)

Fees / expenses

Historical performance

Fund risks

Net asset value

Types of securities

Minimum investment

Performance vs. index

Sales charge (if any)

Tax consequences

61%

58%

57%

57%

55%

47%

52%

74%

69%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

ICI Investor Preferences (2006)

Where investors turn

Fund investors (outside retirement plans)

Professional financial adviser

Fund company

Friends / family / associates

Fund prospectus

Media

Fund reports

Fund literature

Rating services

Fund telephone rep

0%

14%

20%

25%

30%

34%

33%

40%

46%

20% 40% 60%

73%

80%

ICI Investor Preferences (2006)

Paul Schott Stevens

ICI President

“The 90 million fund shareholders’ demand for investment performance and services at a competitive level of fees and expenses continuously impacts mutual funds.”

SEC portrait

William O. Douglas:

”The investors’ advocate”

Investors will benefit from a uniform fee table and management’s discussion of fund performance

SEC (1983)

The number/types of funds has proliferated, increasing need for information to help investors compare and contrast alternatives.

SEC (Mar 29, 1995)

Many investors find prospectuses

“unintelligible, tedious, and legalistic” … Investors need to be provided with clear and comprehensible information.

SEC (Feb 27, 1997)

Funds may resort to advertising techniques that create unrealistic investor expectations.

SEC (Mar 17, 2002)

Prospectus

VFINX

• Disseminated

– after investment / then once annually

– Including electronically / filed SEC

Disclosure

– Investment strategies

– Risks (narrative)

– Performance (1/5/10 years)

– Expenses (sales charge, 12b-1 fees, mgmt fees)

– Turnover rate

Effect

– Omissions in fund literature not fraudulent, if info in prospectus

Fund comparer

( SEC website / NASD)

Statement of

Additional Information

• Not disseminated

– Available to investors (incorporated by ref into prospectus) / file SEC

– No fraud liability if in SAI

• Disclosure

– Fund organization

– Investment policies / limitations

– Management of fund

– Proxy voting policies

– Financial statements

• Can cover multiple funds

Only disclosure of trading costs

(brokerage commissions)

Focus on performance, not expenses

Annual and semi-annual statements

• Disseminated

– Send semi-annually to all investors

– Available on SEC website

• Disclosure

– Annually, MDFP (what’s affecting performance, line graph comparison to relevant index)

– Financials (including expenses, turnover rate)

– List of portfolio holdings (now summary of significant holdings, chart of category breakdown)

No longer does info need to be from prospectus

Advertising

• Regulated

– SEC Rule 482 – must state where can get prospectus

– NASD Rule 2210 – must file with

Advertising Reg Dept

• Disclosure

– Can include performance data

(standardized format)

– Info beyond prospectus

• Required disclaimer

– “Consider investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses”

– “Past performance does not guarantee future results”

Arthur Levitt

SEC Chair (1993-2001)

“The Commission should not be the arbiter of the appropriate level of fund fees. Whether fund fees are too high or too low is a question that we believe must be answered by competition in the marketplace, not by government intervention.”

SEC attention to

ICI, academic research …

SEC citations (footnotes / rulemaking releases)

Topic

Prospectus disclosure (1998)

Fund profile disclosure (1998)

Advertising rules

(2003)

Compliance programs (2003)

Portfolio manager

(2004)

2% fee for redemption (2005)

Comment letters

78

256

29

47

34

400

ICI comments

3

1

0

26

3

10

News stories

19

2

2

1

0

5

* AARP survey of MF investors

** Textbook, Regulation of Investment Companies

*** Articles/studies on trading abuses (finance journals, SSRN)

Non-academic research

ICI research

1* 7

Academic research

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

1

0

0

2

0

0

0

1**

6***

“Academic” portrait

How many colors do you see?

Investors’ Behavior

• Chase Returns

• Ignore Expenses

(but not Loads)

Behavior :

• Investors chase hottest funds

• Convex Flow-Return

Relationship

• Ignorant of

Objectives and

Holdings

• Inattentive to Risk

Reality:

Little evidence of returns persistence: past returns generally don’t predict future returns

Investors’ Behavior

• Chase Returns

• Ignore Expenses

(but not Loads)

Behavior:

• Expense level generally doesn’t affect fund choices

• More sensitive to loads

• Ignorant of Objectives and Holdings

• Inattentive to Risk

Reality:

Annual expenses greatly affect investors’ wealth

$350,000

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0

Value of $15,500

$336,730

$232,104

$159.429

10 20

YEAR

30 40

Annual

Return

6%

7%

8%

Investors’ Behavior

• Chase Returns

• Ignore Expenses

(but not Loads)

Behavior:

Most investors are unaware of their funds’ objectives or holdings

• Ignorant of Objectives and Holdings

• Inattentive to Risk

Implication:

Mismatch between investors’ objectives and funds’ objectives

Investors’ Behavior

• Chase Returns

• Ignore Expenses

(but not Loads)

Behavior:

Expense level generally doesn’t affect fund choices

• Ignorant of Objectives and Holdings

• Inattentive to Risk

Implication:

Mismatch between funds’ risk and investors’ risk tolerance

Modest proposals …

(1) Point of sale disclosure

(2) Post-purchase statements

Fund XYZ performance

Inv return Expenses/costs Net return

1-year

5-years

10-years

20-years

4.5%

7.6%

11.5%

8.9%

2.1%

2.4%

2.4%

5.2%

1.9% 9.6%

1.6% 7.3%

Comparison

Fund XYZ vs.

Asset Class

Asset class

Fund

Asset class

Fund

Asset class

Fund

Asset class

Fund

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00%

Your statement (Fund XYZ)

Beginning balance

Investments

Withdrawals

Investment return

Expenses

Sales charge

Adm/advisory fees

Trading costs

TOTAL

Net return

Ending balance

$10,000

$ 2,000

$ --

$ 850

$ 60

$ 140

$ 80

$ 280

$ 570

$12,570

Expenses

(compare to other comparable funds)

66% - lower expenses

0.3% 2.5%

XYZ

7.7%

0.5%

1.3%

0.7%

2.5%

5.2%

Your fund has about average expenses, but 40% of other similar funds have lower expenses.

You could be saving up to 2.2% on fund expenses.

34% - higher expenses

6.3%

The end

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