Progress Update 1
MDM4U1: Culminating Progress Update # 4
Yolen Bollo-Kamara
St. Edmund Campion S.S.
December 12, 2008
Progress Update 2
Data Analysis
The relationship between the population of Canadian capital cities and the percentage of its
population that uses public transit to get to work.
Provincial Capital
Population (hundred
Percentage of Transit
City
thousands)
Ridership
Victoria, BC
3.30088
10.2
Regina, SK
1.94971
4.2
Edmonton, AB
10.34945
9.7
Toronto, ON
40.75312
22.2
St. John's, NF
1.81113
2.9
Quebec, QU
7.15500
10.2
Winnipeg, MA
6.33451
13
Halifax, NS
2.82924
11.9
correlation coefficient of above chart: 0.8473850360
mean population of above cities: 9.31038 x 100 000 = 931,038
mean percentage of population of the cities in the above graph that uses public transit to get to
work: 10.5375
The relationship between the median household income of a city and bus fare for a high school
student in Canadian and American cities.
Progress Update 3
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Median Household Income
(ten thousands)
$2.00
HS Student Cash
Fares
$2.50
$7.000
$3.00
$6.000
$2.50
$5.000
$2.00
$4.000
$1.50
$3.000
$1.00
$2.000
$1.000
$0.50
$0.000
$0.00
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Median Household
Income
$90,000.00
$80,000.00
$70,000.00
$60,000.00
$50,000.00
$40,000.00
$30,000.00
$20,000.00
$10,000.00
$0.00
American Cities
Canadian Provincial Capitals
correlation coefficient of above graph: 0.0125
correlation coefficient of above graph: 0.404
mean household income (of all Canadian cities studied): $46,409
mean household income (of all American cities studied): $59,006
The relationship between the population of a city and bus fare for a high school student in
Canadian and American cities.
4.000
$1.50
3.000
$1.00
2.000
$0.50
1.000
$0.00
pt
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0.000
B
Population
$2.00
5.000
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
American Cities
Cities
correlation coefficient of above graph: 0.096
$2.50
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6.000
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Ch
i
$2.50
HS student cash fare
$3.00
7.000
ra
m
Population (ten thousands)
8.000
HS Student Cash Fares
Comparing Population (millions) to HS Student
Cash Fares
Comparing Population to HS student Cash Fare in
Mid-Size Canadian Cities
correlation coefficient of above graph: 0.1843
mean population (of all Canadian cities studied): 831,138.6
mean population (of all American cities studied): 1,079,164
mean high school student cash fare in Canada: $2.21
mean high school student cash fare in United States: $1.03
HS Student Cash Fare
Comparing Median Household Income to HS Student Cash
Fare in Canada
Comparing Median Household Income to HS
Student Cash Fares
Progress Update 4
Conclusions
The relationship between the population of a city and the percentage of its population that uses
public transit.
A table from Statistics Canada (2008) provided data on the percentages of people that use
public transit to get to work in cities across Canada. Using this table and population information
of Canadian provincial capital cities (except Charlottetown and New Brunswick), a correlation
coefficient of about 0.85 was calculated, a strong positive correlation. The mean population of
the eight cities used is about 931,000 and the mean percentage of people who use public transit
to get to work is 10.5%, which means that in a city of 931,000 people, about 10.5% can be
expected to use public transit. The closest to this was Edmonton, with a population of 1.03
million, with about 9.7% of the population using public transit. Therefore, a line of best fit would
be fairly accurate in predicting data for other cities. This proves that the population of a city
clearly has an effect on the percentage of people who choose to take public transit. As was
hypothesized, the larger the city, the more likely its population is to choose public transit. This is
most likely because the greater demand for transit in larger cities generates more revenue which
can be used to improve service.
The relationship between the median household income of a city and bus fare for a high school
students.
Clearly, in the United States there is no real relationship between median household
income and high school student cash fares, but in Canada there is a moderate postive correlation.
The average income of the population of all the American cities included in this study is about
$46,000, and the average bus fare for a high school student is $1.03. The average income of the
population of all the Canadian cities included in this study is about $59,000, and the average bus
Progress Update 5
fare for a high school student is $2.21. This disproves the hypothesis that the median household
income of a city affects the price paid for transit in the United States, but in Canada, the median
household income of a city has a moderate effect on the public transit fare.
The relationship between population of a city and bus fare for a high school student
From just looking at the graphs, it is clear to see that the population of a city has little to
no correlation with the amount that a high school student will pay to board the bus. The
population of a city has little to no effect on the amount students pay for transit. This disproves
the hypothesis that the population of a city affects the fare for public transit.
Comparing Transit Costs in Canada and the United States
Basically, American cities have much lower fares for transit, regardless of the mean
household income in each city. High school students in Canada pay more than double the amount
of their counterparts in the United States to board the bus, although the average household
income of the Canadian cities studied is only about one and a quarter times than that of the
American cities studied. It is also important to note that the American cities were on average had
about 200,000 more people than the Canadian cities. This is further proof that population does
not affect the cost of public transit.
Progress Update 6
Related Research
“New Ridership Record Shows U.S. Still Lured to Mass Transit”
According to an article written by the Washington Post (Sun, 2008), the levels of transit
ridership in the United States are very high, despite a combination of negative factors currently
occurring that should decrease ridership. This was initially thought to be the result of high gas
prices but even as gas prices fell, the number of people taking the bus continued to increase.
Unemployment rates are also increasing, which indicates that the resulting decrease in the
median incomes of cities does not significantly decrease ridership as well. Two other negative
factors are the increases in fares and reductions of service that is seen all over the country,
caused by the deficits that many transit agencies are experiencing. For the purpose of this
assignment, it was hypothesized that household income would have a positive correlation with
transit ridership, while transit fares would have a negative correlation with transit ridership. The
fact that transit ridership continues to increase regardless of the factors described clearly
disproves this hypothesis, at least in relation to the United States.
“Declining Gas Prices Could Derail Surge in Transit Use”
This article (Bouzane, 2008) was published by The Vancouver Sun, and details a
significant rise in transit ridership in Canada, similar to the United States. This appears to be for
the same reasons suggested above for the increase in the Uni.ted States. However, in this article
David Jeanes, president of Transport 2000, a transit advocacy group in Ottawa, provides a new
perspective. According to Jeanes, the low gas prices may eventually cause people to return to
driving their own vehicles if they are not satisfied with the level of service provided by public
transit. The level of service was also included in the hypothesis for this project, as having a
Progress Update 7
correlation with transit ridership. If David Jeanes is correct this part of the hypothesis is also
proven to be true, however, as previously stated, an overall increase or decrease in the quality of
service would be very challenging to quantify.
Progress Update 8
References
Bouzane, B. (2008, November 21). Declining gas prices could derail surge in transit use. The
Vancouver Sun, Retrieved December 10, 2008, from
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=afe1c17d-2e1d-47e2-89337fe778a54e1ca
Statistics Canada, (2008, April 9). Proportion of workers using public transit to get to work,
census metropolitan areas, 1996, 2001 and 2006. Retrieved December 12, 2008, from
Statistics Canada: Canada's National Statistical Agency Web site:
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/english/census06/analysis/pow/tables/table11b.htm
Sun, L. (2008, December 8). New ridership record shows US still lured to mass transit.
Washington Post, Retrieved December 9, 2008, from
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/07/ AR2008120702792
.html
Canadian Transit Websites
Barrie, ON: http://www.city.barrie.on.ca/Content.cfm?C=591&SC=1&SCM=0&MI=452
Brampton: http://www.brampton.ca/transit/home.taf
Calgary: http://www.calgarytransit.com/
Charlottetown: http://www.city.charlottetown.pe.ca/residents/transit_routes.cfm
Edmonton: http://www.edmonton.ca/transportation/edmonton-transit-system-ets.aspx
Fredericton: http://www.fredericton.ca/en/transportation/transitschedule.asp
Halifax: http://www.halifax.ca/metrotransit/
Hamilton: http://www.myhamilton.ca/hamilton/CityandGovernment/CityServices/Transit
Kitchener: http://www.grt.ca/web/transit.nsf/fmFrontPage?openform
London: http://www.londontransit.ca/
Mississauga: http://www.mississauga.ca/portal/residents/publictransit
Progress Update 9
Montreal: http://www.stm.info/english/a-somm.htm
Niagara Falls: http://www.niagarafalls.ca//departments/transportation_services/transit/
Oakville: http://www.oakvilletransit.com/
Ottawa, ON: http://www.octranspo.com/
Quebec City, QB: http://www.rtcquebec.ca/francais/accueil.html
Regina, SK: http://www.regina.ca/Page616.aspx
St. Catharine’s, ON: http://www.yourbus.com/
St. John’s, NF: http://www.metrobus.com/
Toronto: http://www3.ttc.ca/
Vancouver, BC: http://www.translink.bc.ca/Transportation_Services/default.asp
Victoria, BC: http://www.bctransit.com/regions/vic/
Windsor, ON: http://www.citywindsor.ca/000599.asp
Winnipeg, MA: http://myride.winnipegtransit.com/en/
York Region, ON: http://www.yrt.ca/index1.asp
American Transit Websites
Austin, TX: http://www.capmetro.org/
Austin, TX: http://www.capmetro.org/
Baltimore, MD: http://www.mtamaryland.com/fares/currentfares/
Boston, MA: http://www.mbta.com/
Charlotte, NC: http://www.charmeck.org/Departments/CATS/Home.htm
Chicago, IL: http://www.transitchicago.com/
Columbus, OH: http://www.cota.com/
Dallas, TX: http://m.dart.org/
Detroit, MI: http://www.detroitmi.gov/ddot/index.html
El Paso, TX: http://m.dart.org/
Fort Worth, TX: http://m.dart.org/
Progress Update 10
Houston, TX: http://www.ridemetro.org/
Indianapolis, IN: http://www.indygo.net/
Jacksonville, FL: http://www.jtaonthemove.com/
Los Angeles, CA: http://www.metro.net/
Memphis, TN: http://www.matatransit.com/
Milwaukee, WI: http://www.ridemcts.com/
New Orleans, LA: http://www.norta.com/
New York, NY: http://www.mta.info/nyct/
Philadelphia, PA: http://www.septa.org/
Phoenix, AR: http://www.valleymetro.org/
San Antonio, TX: http://www.viainfo.net/
San Diego, CA: http://www.sdcommute.com/
San Francisco, CA: www.transit511.org
San Jose, CA: www.transit511.org
Seattle, WA: http://transit.metrokc.gov/
Statistics Canada- 2006 census:
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/popdwell/Table.cfm?T=801&PR=0&SR=
1&S=3&O=D
City Mayors Statistics: Largest 100 U.S. Cities:
http://www.citymayors.com/gratis/uscities_100.html
http://www.city-data.com/