Information Flows and Policy
Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources
Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America
Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, Project No. SGP HD 005
Final Report - August 31, 2009
Robert G. Varady, Principal Investigator
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, University of Arizona
rvarady@email.arizona.edu
Christopher A. Scott, Deputy Principal Investigator
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, and
School of Geography & Development, University of Arizona, cascott@email.arizona.edu
SGP HD 005
Information Flows and Policy
Final Report
1. Project title: Information Flows and Policy: Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone
Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in
Western North America
Project number: SGP HD 005
Principal investigator: Robert G. Varady, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy,
University of Arizona, rvarady@email.arizona.edu.
Deputy principal investigator: Christopher A. Scott, Udall Center for Studies in Public
Policy, and School of Geography & Development, University of Arizona,
cascott@email.arizona.edu.
Key words: climate variability, water-resources management, risk vulnerability, risk
communication, adaptive strategies
2. Complementary Project Funding
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Sectoral Applications
Research Program (SARP). “Moving Forward: Adaptation and Resilience to Climate
Change, Drought, and Water Demand in the Urbanizing Southwestern U.S. & Northern
Mexico,” R. Varady (PI), $286,931, 2008-10.
NOAA Climate Program Office. CLIMAS Integrating climate science for decisionsupport, mitigating risk and promoting resilience: Climate assessment for the southwest,”
G. Garfin, B. Morehouse (co-PIs), $4,000,000, 2007-12.
3. Research Activities and Findings
Objectives: The objectives of this project are as follows:
• Use climate diagnostic information to identify and assess societal vulnerabilities
posed by cyclonic and monsoon processes including drought in both urban and
rural contexts.
• Assess the institutional and policy implications of these vulnerabilities.
• Work with stakeholders to bring the study findings to bear on assessing the
salience, relevance, and credibility of the science, as well as the formulation of
scientific research questions.
• Initiate knowledge transfer to relevant decision makers.
Research activities: The project has been organized into four tasks in order to meet these
objectives. The purpose of each task and the research activities undertaken for each are
listed below.
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Information Flows and Policy
Final Report
Task A: Improve the flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoption.
The objectives of Task A are to provide regular, useful, and understandable information
about the regional climate to decision makers that matches their needs and decision
schedules. The region of study, which includes southwestern United States and northwestern
Mexico, is semi-arid and thus prone to extremes in both temperature and precipitation. The
winter season precipitation generally accompanies frontal systems and is highly important for
groundwater recharge, while the summer North American Monsoon provides intense rains
which are highly variable spatially and temporally. Climate information regarding
temperatures and precipitation may thus serve as a decision-making tool for water managers.
The binational and bilingual Border Climate Summary/Resumen del Clima de la Frontera
(BCS/RCF) was developed during the first year of the project in order to address information
needs on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. Since its inception, five quarterly issues of
the BCS/RCF have been produced and distributed to stakeholders, primarily through the
Internet (http://www.climas.arizona.edu/forecasts/border/summary.html) and e-mail. The
team has actively sought feedback through formal and informal means, including two
surveys distributed during stakeholder workshops in Hermosillo and Jiutepec, Mexico (see
Task D).
•
Task B: Assess urban vulnerability
The objectives of Task B are to determine vulnerability to climate- and water-related
extremes in the rapidly growing urban areas along the border region of the United States and
Mexico. This study focuses on Hermosillo, Cananea, Nogales, and Puerto Peñasco, Sonora
and Tucson and Sierra Vista, Arizona. Increasing industrial and domestic water use puts
strains on already scarce water supplies, and climate model projections indicate the potential
for increased temperatures and aridity in the region. However, these models also predict
more intense rains and flooding. Task B therefore includes institutional and policy analysis to
determine if and how urban water managers use weather or climate information for
contingency planning related to droughts and floods.
Climate factors create a major source of vulnerability for water users and managers in the
region, but decisionmaking is also affected by economic and political factors as well. In
addition to historical climate and water data, investigators have gathered information about
the water managers, the institutions in which they operate, and the use and flow of climate
information. Interviews were conducted with various types of water managers, including
some from the risk and disaster management agency Protección Civil in Sonora.
Investigators on Task B have also assessed the political and economic contexts of the urban
areas in this study to evaluate the limitations that may prevent decision makers from adapting
management practices that reduce vulnerability to climate variability. Investigators have
assessed the economic and political feasibility of a number of proposed solutions to the water
manager-identified problems of water supply, demand, and the efficiency of the delivery
system. These include infrastructural solutions such as aqueducts and desalination plants,
economic solutions such as implementation of usage revenues, and cultural solutions such as
public education campaigns that promote conservation.
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• Task C: Evaluate rural vulnerability
The objectives of Task C are to determine vulnerability to climate- and water-related
extremes for rural water users and managers, particularly those in agricultural and livestock
production. The livelihoods of these water users depend upon the availability and reliability
of water resources, which is subject to the same climate extremes mentioned for Task B
above. Water users in this region face additional challenges as groundwater levels decrease,
saline intrusion increases, and competition with urban water demand intensifies with rapid
growth in population and industry.
Economic and political contexts affect vulnerability to climate variability in the rural areas as
well. Investigators have examined how trade policies such as the North American Free Trade
Agreement impact water usage in the agricultural sector by influencing which crops are
grown for export. The extent to which rural water users are “doubly exposed” by
vulnerabilities related to economic conditions in addition to climate conditions was also
under examination. During interviews with agricultural and livestock producers in southern
Arizona, investigators have identified various types of adaptive strategies available to water
users in rural areas and which types are commonly used. Investigators also examined how
economic and climate information, particularly seasonal climate forecasts of the type
summarized in the BCS/RCF (see Task A description), flows among rural water users, who
have access to this information, and how it is used to make decisions about crop and
livestock production and water usage in particular.
• Task D: Conduct outreach and dissemination to managers
The objectives of Task D are to examine and assess the degree to which flood and water
shortage forecasting related to cyclone and drought are included in decentralized water
management contingency planning and operations, and to promote exchange of information
as a means to support decision making among water managers.
Two stakeholder workshops were held with urban and rural water managers to discuss
vulnerability to climate-related risks, adaptation, and the use and flow of information.
Participants for both workshops included representatives from the governmental, academic,
agricultural, fishing, and forestry sectors. The first was held on November 5, 2008 in
Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico, and the second was held on July 22, 2009 in Jiutepec, Morelos,
Mexico. During these workshops, participants were invited to discuss the types of
information that they need and the types that they can offer in order to reduce vulnerability
and adapt to climate variability and change. The BCS/RCF was presented and tested in the
November 2008 meeting in Hermosillo in order to refine the product to meet end users’
needs. In the July 2009 workshop, participants identified additional types of vulnerability to
climate and water resources variability as well as information and programmatic
opportunities to diminish vulnerability.
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Main findings and results:
• Task A: Improve the flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoption
New contributions to the BCS/RCF have come from investigators from the Centro de
Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), the University of
Washington, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Instituto Mexicano de
Tecnología del Agua (IMTA). Verbal agreements have been reached to obtain future
quarterly contributions from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Centro de
Investigación Sobre Sequía, and the Southern Regional Climate Center. In conjunction with
efforts by member institutions of CLIMAS (funded by NOAA), our project team has
partnered with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) to include cooperative activities
in a Memorandum of Understanding between SMN and NOAA. The joint activities include:
a prominent role for SMN contributions to the quarterly BCS/RCF, experimental forecasts
and data products to help meet the needs that northwest Mexico stakeholders articulated in
our November 2008 workshop, and continuing collaboration on experimental video briefings
for border-region stakeholders.
In response to stakeholder suggestions, new topics include hydrological forecasting,
paleoclimate, climate and public health, and sources of data and information. Future topics
as requested by stakeholders will include forecasts, historical and paleoclimate studies, U.S.Mexico collaborative research projects, and the linkages between climate and agriculture,
forestry, and ecology. Other suggestions that have been implemented or will be implemented
in future issues include the improved usage of Spanish language abbreviations (January
2009), increased graphic size with map locations related to value-added text (October 2009),
and products that highlight wind variations, extreme temperatures, and economic impacts.
Links to the website that contains the BCS/RCF are distributed to a total of 1,743 recipients
on two listservs, CLIMAS News (1,590 recipients) and Monsoon Regional Climate
Applications (133 recipients). Table 1 shows the breakdown of recipients based on e-mail
domains.
An experimental monsoon forecast webinar (video briefing) was held on May 21, 2009 for
regional stakeholders. Forecast presentations from SMN, the National Weather Service, the
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the University of Arizona were
viewed and discussed by 37 participants, including 2 stakeholders from Mexico and 3 from
Tribal/Native Nations.
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Table 1.
Distribution of the Border Climate Summary/ Resumen del Clima de la Frontera
Category
.com
.edu
.org
.gov
.fed
.az
.gob.mx
Government
subtotal
.mx
Total
Comments
Business or Internet provider (e.g., aol.com)
Education, both U.S. and Mexico
Quasi-governmental or non-governmental associations
(e.g., Pima Association of Governments)
Government (U.S.)
Government (U.S.)
Government (state of Arizona, although some use .gov)
Government (Mexico)
U.S. and Mexico
Count
364
498
115
355
76
134
23
588
All Mexico
64
1723
• Task B: Assess urban vulnerability
Monitoring and registering weather and climate data in Mexico is highly centralized, and
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional is responsible for operating the majority of the few stations
that collect data. Integrating this with other monitoring networks and building a combined
database would improve climate monitoring, studies, and information dissemination.
Knowledge has been gained on the rules, organization and networking of Civil Protection
Agencies (Protección Civil) in Sonora. This is a mainly institutional and governmental
network of agencies and local government offices to meet the population requirements during
the tropical storm emergencies. Some initial insights suggest that civil participation is scarce
and unorganized, and that increasing such participation may improve social response to
emergencies. Analysis of hurricane response in September and October of 2008 found that
information did not reach the target population in a timely and effective manner, leading to a
greater need for post-event remedial support.
Effective urban water management in much of Mexico is hindered by inefficiency, both in
terms of water loss from the physical system as well as financial loss through the lack of cost
recovery. Improving water management efficiency may increase water supplies up to 20-30
percent during a drought. An additional problem is the lack of urban development planning,
which is hindered by the fact that water managers are politically appointed for short, threeyear terms. As a result, long-term planning for climate and water resources variability as
well as demographic growth and related water supply and demand factors is difficult to
institutionalize. Instead, planning is based primarily on operational considerations of
meeting water supply schedules and incrementally obtaining additional water sources to meet
demand, specifically through agriculture to urban water transfers and the development of
new infrastructure.
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Improved information on medium- to long-term climate change, decadal variation, and
drought generally receives low priority and minimal consideration by urban water managers.
These tendencies also vary by size and sophistication of the urban water utilities (organismos
operadores de agua potable). Hermosillo, as the capital of the state of Sonora, has greater
capability to confront planning challenges than does the medium-sized city of Cananea.
Aguas de Hermosillo managers who interfaced with project investigators (both one-on-one
and via workshops as described above) reported that as an autonomous utility of the
Hermosillo municipal government, their planning process was bound to mayoral election
cycles and the priorities (investment, location with the city, etc.) of the incumbent municipal
government. Nevertheless, financial resources were made available to the utility to meet the
highest-priority planning goals. By contrast, Cananea with its unique history as a mining
“company town” in the process of divestment of services (water, roads, and other
infrastructure) experiences a very critical gap in financial and personnel resources to meet
water supply targets.
In both Mexican cases considered in this project, improved climate information products and
their dissemination must be enhanced through institutional strengthening and capacity
building in order to diminish risk and improve services and outcomes.
In the U.S., specifically the state of Arizona, a mix of public utilities and private companies
manages urban water. Cities such as Tucson within the state’s designated Active
Management Areas (administered by the Arizona Department of Water Resources) must
meet assured water supply rules that account for scarcity and variability of current water
sources over a 100-year future timeframe. Institutional mechanisms to meet these
requirements include water banking and trading. However, the hydrological and water
quality implications of groundwater storage and recovery are uncertain. Sierra Vista,
Arizona is not located in an Active Management Area and hence the assured water supply
rules do not apply. Nevertheless, the congressionally mandated San Pedro Riparian National
Conservation Area imposes specific water management goals in a time-bound manner that
very significantly influence urban water supply.
On both sides of the border, there is growing recognition of the resource value of urban
wastewater, whether used informally in urban and peri-urban agriculture (primarily the case
for Hermosillo and Cananea) or as reclaimed water for urban landscaping (Tucson) or for
groundwater recharge to manage riparian water levels (Sierra Vista). These operational uses
of wastewater must be seen as adaptation options for urban water managers.
• Task C: Evaluate rural vulnerability
Throughout the region, on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, groundwater is being
depleted as farmers seek to adapt to climate change and variability. Crop choice, seasonal
timing, and farm income (or profits for commercial agro-industrial operations) are
determined to a greater extent by farm labor dynamics and commodity markets than by water
availability although rising costs of energy have translated into significant cost implications
for pumping groundwater. In Sonora’s coastal belt, saline intrusion is affecting aquifer water
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quality with implications not just for cropping patterns but also the sustainability of land and
ultimately farming as an enterprise. Groundwater is managed distinctly in the U.S. (greater
state role) and Mexico (federal authority) although operational decisions remain with farmers
who ultimately are the ones who must adapt to long-term groundwater declines.
Similar to this project’s previous findings in Sonora, rural water managers in Arizona rarely
use climate and weather forecasts to make important decisions such as crop mixture,
irrigation schedules, and herd size. Farmers tend to produce crops based on market prices
and what grows well given long-term climate averages. Irrigation is an adaptive strategy that
allows farmers and ranchers to respond to precipitation variability and to improve control of
water inputs. However, irrigation may prove maladaptive over time as overpumping of
ground and surface water increases in Arizona and Sonora. Weather and climate information
has the potential to improve irrigation decision making, but for now decisions are primarily
made in response to rain rather than anticipation of it. Similarly, ranchers tend to either
maintain a year-to-year herd size that is sustainable regardless of the weather, or they will
alter herd size in reaction to current vegetation conditions.
Access to climate information is not a limiting factor for most farmers and ranchers in
Arizona. Interestingly, both farmers and ranchers indicated that although seasonal climate
forecasts do not usually influence their production decisions, they are always aware of what
the forecasts indicate and maintain an attitude of “hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
• Task D: Conduct outreach and dissemination to managers
The two stakeholder workshops revealed a number of obstacles to information flows.
Participants in both workshops stressed the need for interagency communication and
cooperation, especially when they learned that other agencies could provide useful
information of which they were previously unaware. Concerns were also raised related to
both the quantity and quality of information available.
The main findings of the workshops were the following:
1. There is a need for improvements in data collection and distribution of forecasts and
climate information products. Collaboration across the border has resulted in advances in
these areas, but strengthening these ties and activities will continue to improve the
collection and communication of climate science data.
2. Information needs to be made more widely available and target a broader audience.
Thinking beyond distribution on the Internet and uniting data from various regions into
larger networks will enhance the utilization of information.
3. Information must be tailored to fit the needs of a variety of stakeholders so that this
information may be used in decisionmaking.
4. Evaluation and follow-up for adaptive response strategies will allow decision makers to
move forward with flexible adaptive water management strategies that are resilient to a
range of possible changes.
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4. Contributions of Co-PIs
Robert Varady – as PI, he provided project oversight and linkages with decision-makers
in the U.S. and Mexico. He led the development and submission of the successful grant
application to NOAA SARP for the “Moving Forward” project indicated above.
Gregg Garfin – as Task A leader, he led the development and supervised a graduate
student research assistant working on the Border Climate Summary/ Resumen del Clima
de la Frontera, a primary output of this project. Additionally he is the point person at the
University of Arizona for collaboration with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
(SMN), including to operationalize the MOU signed between NOAA and SMN on
January 18. 2010.
Nicolás Pineda Pablos – as Task B leader, he led the urban water planning and
vulnerability assessments (supervising two graduate student research assistants) with
emphasis on Hermosillo and Cananea, Sonora. In addition, he provided significant
support for linkages with Mexican officials and agencies and coordinated the November
2008 workshop.
Christopher Scott – as Task C leader, he led the rural assessments with emphasis on the
link between groundwater use and farmers’ adaptation to climate variability and drought.
As project deputy PI, he provided overall project coordination and support for the
November 2008 and July 2009 workshops. In these multiple functions, the graduate
student research assistant he supervised provided significant input.
Martín Montero-Martínez – as Task D leader, he was responsible for stakeholder
outreach particularly in Mexico. He coordinated the July 2009 workshop with input from
team members, and supervised a graduate student research assistant.
Other investigators (Anne Browning-Aiken, Ashley Coles, David Gochis, Barbara
Morehouse, Andrea Ray, and Margaret Wilder) played crucial roles on various tasks and
led the preparation and presentation of project outputs and publications listed below.
Special thanks are due to Ashley Coles, a graduate student research assistant on the
project, for her support in preparing this final report.
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5. Publications (project investigators are highlighted in bold type)
In print
Briseño, H. 2009. La gestión eficiente del agua frente al cambio climático. Sonárida, 27.
Browning-Aiken, A. and Scott, C.A. 2009. Drought and adaptive water-resources
management in southern Arizona. Proceedings of the Arizona Hydrological Society &
American Institute of Hydrology, Scottsdale, AZ, Aug. 31 – Sept. 2.
Coles, A.R., and Scott, C.A. 2009. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and
variability in semi-arid rural southeastern Arizona, USA. Natural Resources Forum 33:
297-309.
Coles, A.R., Scott, C.A., and Garfin, G.M. 2009. Weather, climate, and water: an
assessment of risk, vulnerability, and communication on the U.S.-Mexico border. In
Proceedings of the 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society.
Phoenix, Arizona. January 11-15.
http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_149938.htm
Diaz-Caravantes, R.E., and Scott, C.A. 2009. Water management and biodiversity
conservation interface in Mexico: a geographical analysis. Applied Geography (2009),
doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.10.003.
Garfin, G. 2009. Dry heat: An overview of climate changes and their impacts on North
America’s arid regions. Sonárida, 27.
Garfin, G., Scott, C.A., Coles, A.R., Ray, A., Gochis, D., Farfán, L., Cavazos, T.,
Sammler, K., Varady, R., Wilder, M., Pineda, N., Montero, M., and BrowningAiken, A. 2009. Information flows and policy: Climate, cyclones, and adaptive waterresources management at the U.S.-Mexico border. In Proceedings of the 89th Annual
Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Phoenix, Arizona. January 11-15.
http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_146039.htm
Gochis, D.J., W. Shi, J. Schemm, L. Williams, and R.W. Higgins. 2009. A community
forum for evaluation and use of seasonal forecasts of the North American Monsoon: The
NAME forecast forum. Eos. 90 (29): 249-250, 21 July 2009.
Morehouse, B.J., D. Ferguson, G. Owen, A. Browning-Aiken, P. Wong-Gonzales, N.
Pineda, and R. G. Varady. 2008. Science and socio-ecological sustainability: Examples
from the Arizona-Sonora border. Environmental Science and Policy 11(3): 272-84
Pineda, N. and A. Salazar Adams. 2009. Managing water amid rapid urbanization:
Mexico’s north borderlands. In Water, Ecosystems and Sustainable Development in Arid
and Semi-arid Zones, edited by G. Schneier-Madanes and M.F. Courel. Springer.
Pineda, N., and Flores Félix, F. 2009. ¿Cómo mejorar la observación meteorológica
terrestre en México? Sonárida, 27.
Pineda, N. 2009. El manejo urbano del agua: del círculo vicioso a la participación
ciudadana, la autosuficiencia y la sustentabilidad. Notas para una agenda de
investigación. Memoria de la Primera Reunión de la Red Nacional del Agua, Jan. 22.
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Pineda, N. 2008. Nacidos para perder dinero y derrochar agua: el inadecuado marco
institucional de los organismos operadores de agua en México. In D. Soares, S. Vargas,
and M.R. Nuño (eds.), La gestión de los recursos hídricos: realidades y perspectivas
tomo. Jiutepec: Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua; Guadalajara: Universidad de
Guadalajara.
Pineda, N. and Salazar, A. 2008. De las juntas federales a las empresas de agua: La
evolución institucional de los servicios urbanos de agua en México 1948-2008. In R.
Olivares and R. Sandoval (eds.), El agua potable en México: Historia reciente, actores,
procesos y propuestas. México: Asociación Nacional de Empresas de Agua, 57-76.
Pineda, N. 2009. El monzón de América del Norte. Entrevista a D. Gochis. Sonárida 27.
Scott, C.A., S. Dall’erba, R. Díaz-Caravantes. 2010. Groundwater rights in Mexican
agriculture: spatial distribution and demographic determinants. The Professional
Geographer 62(1): 1-15.
Scott, C.A. 2008. Data management and exchange: Challenges in a multi-national and
multi-disciplinary environment (El manejo y el intercambio de datos: Desafíos en un
ambiente multinacional y multidisciplinario). Inter-American Institute for Global Change
Research Newsletter, 1: 25-26.
Scott, C.A. and J.M. Banister. 2008. The dilemma of water management
“regionalization” in Mexico under centralized resource allocation. International Journal
of Water Resources Development 24(1): 61–74, DOI: 10.1080/07900620701723083.
Silva Gutiérrez, L.M. 2009. Las inundaciones en Sonora. Un reto más para Protección
Civil. Sonárida, 27.
Varady, R. G., and E. Ward. 2009. Transboundary conservation in context: What
drives environmental change? In Conservation of Shared Environments: Learning from
the United States and Mexico. Lopez-Hoffman, L., E. McGovern, R. G. Varady, and K.
W. Flessa, eds. University of Arizona Press. pp. 9-22.
Varady, R.G., C.A. Scott, G.M. Garfin, M. Wilder. 2009. Adaptation to climate
change in Latin America and Caribbean: the water sector/ Adaptación al cambio
climático en América Latina y el Caribe: el sector hídrico. Inter-American Institute for
Global Change Research Newsletter, 1: 9-11.
Varady, R. G., and E. McGovern. 2009. Paradigmas para la gestión del agua en el siglo
XXI (Paradigms for water management in the 21st century). Revista Hydria (Argentina;
October) 25: 11-14.
Wilder, M. 2010. Political and economic apertures and the shifting state-citizen
relationship: reforming Mexico’s national water policy, in D. Huitema and S. Meijerink,
eds., Water Policy Entrepreneurs: A Research Companion to Water Transitions Around
the Globe. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
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In press
Pineda, N. and A. Salazar Adams. 2009. El ciclo de centralización y descentralización
del servicio de agua potable en Hermosillo, 1896-2002. Boletín del Archivo Mexicano del
Agua.
Scott, C.A. In press. Groundwater. Encyclopedia of Geography. Thousand Oaks, CA:
Sage Publications.
Scott, C.A., Megdal, S., Oroz, L.A., Mexía, M., Ramos, H. In press. Building shared
vision: assessment of transboundary aquifers along the United States – Mexico border. In
Proceedings of International Conference on Water Scarcity, Global Changes, and
Groundwater Management Responses, University of California – Irvine, UNESCO,
USGS, Irvine, CA, December 1-5, 2008.
Scott, C.A., P. Silva-Ochoa. In press. Collective action for sustainable water harvesting
irrigation. In Resources, Rights, and Cooperation: A Sourcebook on Property Rights and
Collective Action for Sustainable Development. International Food Policy Research
Institute, Washington, DC. pp. 80-83.
Wilder, M., C.A. Scott, N. Pineda Pablos, R.G. Varady, G.M. Garfin. In press.
Adapting across boundaries: climate change, social learning, and resilience in the U.S.Mexico border region. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, special issue
on climate change.
Wilder, M. In press. Promises under construction: the evolving paradigm for water
governance and the case of northern Mexico, in A. Garrido and H. Ingram, eds., Water,
Food, and Sustainability. London: Routledge.
Wilder, M. and G.M. Garfin (in press). Drought risk and hazard. Encyclopedia of
Geography. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
In review and in progress
Coles, A.R., Scott, C.A., and Garfin, G.M. (in review). Communicating risk and
vulnerability: Weather, climate, and water on the U.S.-Mexico border. NOAA Climate
Program Office, white paper solicitation.
Garfin, G. and Ray, A. (eds.). In progress. Climate Research special issue “Climate
Change at the U.S.-Mexico Border.”
Scott, C.A. and Pineda, N. (in review). Negotiating urban-rural resource regimes:
Water, wastewater, and the institutional dynamics of hydraulic reach in northwest
Mexico. Submitted to Geoforum.
Scott, C.A., M.J. Pasqualetti. Submitted, in review. Energy and water resources scarcity:
Critical infrastructure for growth and economic development in Arizona and Sonora.
Natural Resources Journal.
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Wilder, M., Varady, R.G., Pineda, N., Browning-Aiken, A., Díaz-Caravantes, R.E.,
and Garfin, G.M. (In review). Urban water management, climate science, and adaptive
capacity in northern Mexico. Submitted to Global Environmental Change.
Presentations
Browning-Aiken, A. 2009. Drought and adaptive water-resources management in
southern Arizona. “Managing Hydrologic Extremes”, Arizona Hydrological Society &
American Institute of Hydrology, Scottsdale, AZ, Aug. 31 – Sept. 2.
Browning-Aiken, A. 2008. The Interplay between water institutions and practices in the
U.S.-Mexico Upper San Pedro Basin: Is economic development sustainable where
transboundary and regional policies conflict? IV International Symposium on
Transboundary Waters Management. Thessaloniki, Greece. Oct. 15-18.
Coles, A.R., C.A. Scott, and G.M. Garfin. 2009. Weather, climate, and water: An
assessment of risk, vulnerability, and communication on the U.S.-Mexico border. Annual
Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Phoenix, AZ. 11-15 Jan.
Coles, A.R. and J. McEvoy. 2008. Water resources and vulnerability to climate change
in Arizona and Sonora. Joint Inter-American Institute – National Center for Atmospheric
Research Advanced Study Program Colloquium, "Seasonality and Water Resources in
the Western Hemisphere.” Mendoza, Argentina. 6-17 Oct.
Farfán, L.M., Romero-Centeno, R., Raga, G.B., and Zavala-Hidalgo, J. 2008.
Landfalling tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific. Part I: Case studies from 2006 and
2007. Extended abstract, American Meteorological Society, 28th Conference on
Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Orlando, Florida April 28 – May 2.
http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_138010.htm
Garfin, G., 2009. Resumen del clima de la frontera/Border climate summary and online
drought tools. 2009 Border Governors Conference Water Work Table Binational Drought
Science Conference. San Diego, CA (invited talk). 26-27 March.
http://www.watereducation.org/doc.asp?id=1187.
Garfin G., A. Coles, J. McEvoy, K. Sammler, R. Varady, M. Wilder, C.A. Scott, T.
Cavazos, A. Ray, D. Gochis, N. Pineda, L. Farfán, and R. Díaz. 2009. Improving
information flows to enhance drought and climate change resilience in northern Mexico.
Poster presented at the NOAA Climate Prediction and Applications Workshop. Norman,
OK. 24-27 March. http://climate.ok.gov/cpasw/presentations.php#G
Garfin, G. 2009. Adaptation to climate change: Addressing challenges in the U.S.Mexico border region. ASLO Aquatic Sciences Meeting: Session 100: Eutrophication
and Water Management. International Comparisons of Water Quality Challenges and
Policy. Nice, France. 28 Jan.
McEvoy, J. and M. Wilder. 2008. Avanzando adelante: Adaptación y resiliencia al
cambio climático, la sequía y la demanda del agua en los centros urbanizantes del
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suroeste de EEUU y el noroeste de México. Arizona-Mexico Commission Fall Plenary
Session. Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. 8 Dec.
Pineda, N. and A. Salazar Adams. 2009. Notas para la historia de los servicios urbanos
de agua potable en Sonora. Simposio de la Sociedad Sonorense de Historia, Hermosillo,
Sonora, Mexico. 25 Feb.
Pineda, N. 2008. Agua potable en México: Historia reciente, actores, procesos y
propuestas. XXII Convención anual de la Asociación Nacional de Empresas de Agua
(ANEAS). Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico. 5 Nov.
Scott, C.A. 2009. Session panelist: Agua, territorio, y medio ambiente: políticas públicas
y participación ciudadana (Water, land, and environment: public policy and citizen
participation), International Congress of Americanists, Mexico City, July 21.
Scott, C.A. 2009. Rural vulnerability to water resources variability under climatic
uncertainty in western North America, for session “The Water Wars: Water as a
Commodity or as a Human Right”, International Congress of Americanists, Mexico City,
July 23.
Scott, C.A. 2009. Flujo de información a tomadores de decisión: Dimensiones humanas
de ciclones tropicales (Information flows to decision-makers: Human dimensions of
tropical cyclones). Organized by Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad
Nacional Autonoma de México. Acapulco, Mexico. 13 Mar.
Scott, C.A. 2008. Session chair: Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change and
Uncertainty. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, December
15-19.
Scott, C.A., 2008. Adaptive water resources management under climatic uncertainty in
western North America (and member of workshop organizing committee). Regional
Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States. Centro de
Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada and NOAA, Ensenada,
Baja California, Mexico. 10-11 Apr.
Scott, C.A. 2008. Groundwater rights in Mexican agriculture: spatial distribution and
social and economic determinants. Association of American Geographers Annual
Meeting, Boston, MA, April 19.
Varady, R. G., I. Aguilar Barajas, and G. Mejía Velázquez. 2010. Environment and
security in the U.S.-Mexico border region: Water and air issues. Presented at the Puentes
Consortium Mexico-U.S. Higher Education Leadership Forum. Houston, TX. 14 Jan.
Varady, R. G., R. Salmón Castelo, and S. Eden. 2009. Key issues, institutions, and
strategies for managing transboundary water resources in the Arizona-Mexico border
region. Presented at “Arizona-Israeli-Palestinian Water Management and Policy
Workshop: Economic, Environmental, and Community Implications of Expanding Reuse
and Desalination for Future Water Supplies.” Tucson, AZ. 1 Sept.
Varady, R. G. 2009. Information flows and policy: Use of climate diagnostics and
cyclone prediction for adaptive water-resources management under climatic uncertainty
in western North America. Presented at Joint Principal Investigators’ Meeting of the
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Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI). Montevideo, Uruguay. 24
June.
Varady, R. G., M. Wilder, C. A. Scott, N. Pineda, B J. Morehouse, and G. Garfin.
2009. Institutions and societal impacts of climate in the Arizona-Sonora portion of the
U.S.-Mexico border region. Presented (by M. Wilder) at Open Meeting of the
International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP). Bonn, Germany. 26-30 Apr.
Varady, R. G., M. Wilder, C. A. Scott, G. Garfin, N. Pineda, B. Morehouse, A.
Coles, J. McEvoy, K. Sammler. 2009. Climate, society, and information flows in the
U.S.-Mexico border region. Poster presented at the International Alliance of Research
Universities (IARU): International Scientific Congress on Climate Change. Copenhagen,
Denmark. 10-12 Mar.
Varady, R.G. 2009. Member of panel on: Challenges posed by climate change and
drought and their impacts on water availability and society in North America. Workshop
on Climate-Related Water Constraints and Their Implications for Relations Across North
American Boundaries. México City, D.F., Mexico. 5-6 Mar.
Wilder, M., C. Scott, N. Pineda Pablos, R. G. Varady, G. Garfin, and J. McEvoy,
2009. Adapting across boundaries: Knowledge, social learning and resilience in the USMexico border region. Paper presented at Earth Systems Governance Conference.
Amsterdam, Netherlands. 3 Dec.
Wilder, M. with R. Díaz. 2009. Communities, conservation and climate change: New
geographies of climate change governance in the binational Colorado Delta Region
(juried selection of papers). Presented at the International Human Dimensions of Global
Change (IHDP) Open Meeting. Bonn, Germany. 26-30 Apr.
Wilder, M. with R. Díaz. 2009. Water, cities, and peri-urban vulnerabilities in
Northwest Mexico. Association of the American Geographers Annual Meeting. Las
Vegas, NV. 22-27 Mar.
Wilder, M. 2008. Political and economic apertures: The shifting state-society
relationship and national water policy transition in Mexico. Invited paper for
International Water Transitions workshop, University of Amsterdam. Amsterdam, The
Netherlands. 3-4 July.
Garfin, G.M., 2010. “Climate Adaptation Partnerships in Semiarid North America” at
the American Meteorological Society 90th Annual Meeting, session on The Emergence of
New Scientific Partnerships. January 18, 2010, Atlanta, GA.
Garfin, G.M., 2009 “CHANGE (Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for
Governance and the Environment)” at the American Water Resources Association
Annual Water Resources Conference. November 12, 2009, Seattle, WA. (Authors: G.
Garfin, N. Lee, T. Rolfe).
Garfin, G.M., 2009 “Comportamiento y previsiones del clima en el Desierto de Sonora”
at the Panel sobre Hermosillo y el clima. Comportamiento, amenazas, perspectivas. 22
Octubre 2009, El Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo, Sonora, México (invited).
Garfin, G.M., 2009 “Climate Change Projections and Impacts: Future Challenges for
Arizona” at the 2009 American Planning Association (Arizona Chapter) Arizona State
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Planning Conference, session on Getting Real About Adapting to Climate Change in
Arizona. 15 October 2009, Prescott Valley, Arizona. (invited)
Garfin, G.M., 2009 “Climate Change in the Southwest” at the Tohono O’odham
Community College Climate Enrichment Program. 21 September 2009 Sells, Arizona.
(invited)
Garfin, G.M., 2009 “Climate Change Challenges and Solutions for Water Managers” at
the Arizona, Israeli, and Palestinian Water Management and Policy Workshop:
Economic, Environmental, and Community Implications of Expanding Reuse and
Desalination for Future Water Supplies. 1 September 2009, Tucson, Arizona (invited).
Garfin, G.M., 2009 “A Perspective on Applied Water Resources Research for Use by
Decision Makers: The Case of Drought in Semiarid North America” at Water Resources
in Developing Countries: Planning and Management in a Climate Change Scenario.
Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. 29 April 2009.
(invited)
6. Data and Metadata
Interviews: Sonora (January 2008-August 2009)
2 interviews with directors in Protección Civil in Hermosillo, Sonora.
Numerous interviews with urban water managers in Hermosillo and Cananea, Sonora.
Interviews with representatives from Comisión Nacional del Agua. Field notes were
taken for each interview.
Interviews: Rural Southern Arizona (January-May 2009):
Most of the fieldwork was conducted during four visits to rural communities in Cochise
and Pima County. Four interviews were carried out over the telephone. Field notes were
taken for each interview.
Cochise County:
Pima County:
17 interviews with farmers, ranchers, Natural Resource
Conservation Service (NRCS) agents, and a wildlife refuge
caretaker.
5 interviews with farmers, NRCS agents, and a Cooperative
Extension agent.
Surveys: Hermosillo Workshop (November 2008):
Surveys were distributed among workshop participants regarding principal concerns for
water managers, adaptive strategies and limitations, and feedback about the BCS/RCF.
34 surveys were collected and analyzed.
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Surveys: Cuernavaca Workshop (July 2009):
Surveys were distributed among workshop participants regarding principal concerns for
water managers, adaptive strategies and limitations, and feedback about the BCS/RCF.
25 surveys collected and analyzed.
Document Collection: Newspaper articles in Sonora (August-October 2008)
Newspaper articles were collected that document the passage of Hurricanes Julius
(August), Lowell (September), and Norbert (October) through Sonora.
7. Capacity Building
Students trained:
Name:
Affiliation:
Nationality:
Grade:
Area of expertise:
Student involvement in project:
Scholarship duration and amount:
Name:
Affiliation:
Nationality:
Grade:
Area of expertise:
Student involvement in project:
Scholarship duration and amount:
Ashley Coles
University of Arizona, Udall Center for Studies in Public
Policy. Graduate research assistant.
United States
PhD student
Risk perception and communication, atmospheric sciences
This student contributed to the development of research
protocols, including semi-structured interview questions. She
interviewed agricultural and livestock producers in southern
Arizona and co-authored a paper on the results (Coles and Scott,
2009). She participated in the Hermosillo and Cuernavaca
workshops as an organizer and attendee.
1 year, $14,450 + summer salary
Hugo Briseño Ramirez
Colegio de Sonora. Graduate research assistant.
México
Master’s student
Risk assessment
H. Briseño researched the efficiency of urban water management
and adaptive water management strategies in Hermosillo and
other semi-arid cities. He has gathered general quantitative
information about water management and has conducted several
interviews to water managers.
1 year, $36,000 MEP
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Name:
Affiliation:
Nationality:
Grade:
Area of expertise:
Student involvement in project:
Scholarship duration and amount:
Name:
Affiliation:
Nationality:
Grade:
Area of expertise:
Student involvement in project:
Scholarship duration and amount:
Name:
Affiliation:
Nationality:
Grade:
Area of expertise:
Student involvement in project:
Scholarship duration and amount:
Name:
Affiliation:
Nationality:
Grade:
Area of expertise:
Student involvement in project:
Scholarship duration and amount:
Final Report
Luis Miguel Silva
Colegio de Sonora. Graduate research assistant.
México
Master’s student
Risk assessment
This student researched and developed a master’s thesis on
Protección Civil in Sonora, including participation in an
internship in the Protección Civil Office of the Sonora State
Government. He assessed the structure and policy of Protección
Civil, evaluated performance over the last ten years, and
gathered information on the social and economic impacts of
tropical storms in Sonora.
1 year, $36,000 MEP
Patricio Eduardo Byerly Sosa
Instituto Technico de Sonora. Graduate research assistant.
Mexican
Master’s student
Environmental consultancy
This student researched and completed a bilingual report on the
data available for Sonora’s reservoirs and rivers, including
previous studies and historical data. He also attended the
Hermosillo and Cuernavaca workshops.
10 months, $6,300.00 USD
Mario Anibal Bravo
Colegio de Sonora
Mexican
Master’s student
Rural-urban water transfers
M.A. Bravo researched the topic of rural and urban competition
for access to water resources in the Region of Hermosillo. He
has been reviewing the legal frame of water transfers and the
prospect for the cities to have access to agricultural water as a
measure of adaptive management.
1 year, no funding on IAI grant, but provided important input
Ernesto Pliego
Colegio de Sonora
Mexican
Master’s student
Urban water management
Conducted field research into the water rates and management in
Cananea, Sonora.
6 months, no funding on IAI grant, but provided important input
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8. Regional Collaboration/Networking
Team member institutions:
United States
México
Collaborators’ institutions:
United States
México
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy
Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS)
University of Arizona
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
El Colegio de Sonora (COLSON)
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua (IMTA)
Instituto de Sonora (ITSON)
University of Washington
Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Educación Superior
de Ensenada (CICESE)
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
Universidad de Sonora (UNISON)
Meeting attendees’ institutions:
United States
Arizona State University (ASU)
International Border Water Commission (IBWC)
International Research Institute for Global Change
Research (IRI)
México
AgriEnlace
Agua de Hermosillo (AguaH)
Asociación de Productores de Uva de Mesa de Sonora
Centro de Estudios Superiores del Edo Sonora (CESUES)
Centro de Desarrollo Ambiental (CEDEA) – CESUES
Centro Nacional de Investigación Disciplinaria en la
Relación Agua-Suelo-Planta-Atmósfera
Centro Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo (CIAD)
Centro Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR)
Colegio de la Frontera (COLEF)
Comité Estatal de Sanidad Vegetal Sonora (CESAVESON)
Comisión de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable (CEDES)
Comisión Estatal del Agua (CEA) Sonora
Comisión Internacional de Límites y Agua (CILA)
Comisión Nacional del Agua (CNA)
Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas (CONANP)
Fundación Produce Sonora
Instituto Nacional de Ecología (INE) – UNAM
Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas
y Pecuarias (INIFAP)
Instituto Nacional de Pesca (INAPESCA)
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Instituto Tecnológico de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey
(ITESM)
Organismo Operador Municipal de Agua Potable,
Alcantarillado y Saneamiento (OOMAPAS), Nogales
Patronato para la Investigación y Experimentación Agrícola
del Estado de Sonora (PIEAES)
Productora de Nuez SPR de RI
Protección Civil
Proyecto de Reforestación
Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarrollo Rural,
Pesca, y Alimentación de México (SAGARPA)
Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales
(SEMARNAT)
Ancillary Networking:
o CHANGE Workshop.
o Investigator Garfin co-convened a workshop entitled “Climate-Related Water
Constraints and their Implications for Relations Across North American
Boundaries,” on March 5-6, 2009
(http://www.environment.arizona.edu/change/workshops/climate-relatedwater-constraints). The workshop brought together researchers from Canada,
the U.S., and Mexico (including IAI project researchers Garfin, Varady, and
Pineda) to discuss climate-related water and environmental issues in
transboundary regions. The workshop kicked-off a research coordination
network called the Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for
Governance and the Environment (CHANGE). In addition to the $13,000
garnered from the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade
(Canada) mentioned in last year’s report, Garfin and colleagues garnered an
additional $17,000 in matching funds from the following institutions:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the National Integrated Drought
Information System (NOAA), the Drought Research Institute, Instituto
Nacional de Ecologia, the Arizona Water Institute, and Public Works Canada.
Workshop publications are available on the aforementioned website, and
monthly updates from CHANGE members are available here:
http://www.environment.arizona.edu/change.
o Elsevier Environment Science and Policy special issue.
o Investigators Robert Varady and Gregg Garfin, in collaboration with
colleague Patricia Romero-Lankao (NCAR), are negotiating with Elsevier,
B.V. (Executive Publisher, Dr. Christiane Barranguet) to coordinate and coedit a special issue of the journal Environment Science and Policy. The special
issue will focus on reviewing and evaluating integrated assessment and water
management projects and programs that have been developed to address
issues regarding, water, climate, society and public policy in the Americas –
in part, to highlight work from IAI research, including this project. Dr.
Barranguet has suggested that we convene potential authors at the April 2010
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meeting of the International Association for Impact Assessment
(http://www.iaia.org/iaia10/).
9. Media Coverage and Prizes
Radio:
Co-PI Martín Montero was interviewed on “Planeta Agua,” a local radio program in
Cuernavaca about the project-sponsored workshop hosted by IMTA on July 22, 2009.
UFM Alterna, 106.1 FM radio UAEM, July 17, 2009 from 7:00 to 7:55 hrs.
Co-PI Nicolas Pineda and graduate students E. Pliego, H. Briseño, and L. Silva were
interviewed on different dates during the summer of 2009 on the radio talk show “La
conversada” of Radio Sonora, which reaches all of Sonora.
Print:
“Intercambian información sobre aspectos climáticos.” July 31, 2008. El Imparcial
(Hermosillo, Sonora).
Following the award of the complementary funding provided by NOAA-SARP, two news
articles were released describing the aims of the project.
Harrison, J., University Communications. “NOAA, UA Study to Examine Links
Between Border Growth, Natural Resources. Researchers from the UA and Sonora will
address questions about urban growth, climate, and water supplies in four key urban
areas.” October 20, 2008. UA News (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ).
Davis, T. “UA water study to evaluate 'hot spots' on border: Effort on both sides of the
line to have new slant.” October 23, 2008. The Arizona Daily Star (Tucson, AZ).
Newsletter:
The newsletter (boletín) Portales del Colegio de Sonora had several reports on the
project activities and included a link to the BCS/RCF.
10. Policy Relevance
As a human dimensions project, this project’s primary goal has been to undertake policyrelevant research on climate and water variability as linked to societal vulnerability. The
central objective of the project has been to engage decision makers in the southwestern
United States and northwestern Mexico. Specific policy impacts have been achieved
through the Border Climate Summary/ Resumen del Clima de la Frontera (improved
linkages among researchers and official agencies), through the two stakeholder
workshops held in November 2008 and July 2009 (with emphasis on urban and rural
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managers in Mexico), and through leveraged projects (NOAA SARP and CLIMAS,
which have permitted the team to raise the profile of regional, cross-border U.S.-Mexico
climate and water variability for researchers and agencies in the U.S.). In particular, the
project has forged strong linkages to Mexico’s national meteorological service (SMN),
which is planning a long-term, cooperative relationship with NOAA for joint work in the
border region. Similarly, the project team has interacted strongly with the Arizona
Department of Water Resources, the California Department of Water Resources, and the
Border Governors Association on water-and-climate issues, especially drought. In an
even broader effort, the project team is part of the trinational (Canada, U.S., and Mexico)
network entitled “The Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and
the Environment” (CHANGE, see http://www.environment.arizona.edu/change), a
knowledge exchange and research coordination network between academic researchers
and experts from non-governmental and governmental organizations in North America
with the explicit goal of fostering cross-border cooperation to enhance the use of climate
and hydrologic research and better inform North American water policy challenges. The
project team aims to continue these very successful efforts through ongoing and future
projects.
11. Main Conclusions
The IAI project, “Information Flows and Policy: Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone
Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in
Western North America,” has continued work begun in 2003 with funding from NOAA.
As such, it has benefited from the experience of the binational research team and its
familiarity with the conditions and salient issues of the region in question, the western
portion of the U.S.-Mexico border. As a result, the project was able to achieve a
“running start” in the fall of 2007, upon the award of the IAI grant.
One of the great benefits of the prior work and expertise of the team was our
acquaintance with many of the relevant agencies and personnel in the two countries,
enabling the researchers to home in on key decision-makers and scientists.
Consequently, we obtained high acceptance rates to our invitations to stakeholders’
workshops and were able to engage directly with high government officials such as the
heads of SMN, IMTA, CONAGUA, and state agencies in Mexico, and with similarly
well-placed officials in the United States and Arizona.
A major conclusion is that interest in climate and its effects on water management,
disaster planning, and economic development is building in both nations. And—perhaps
counterintuitively—at a time when relations between the United States and Mexico
frequently are portrayed in the press as adversarial and dominated by narcotrafficking,
crime, and illegal immigration, we found a strong spirit of scientific collaboration and
shared concern for addressing mutual concerns. Our colleagues—at institutions in the two
countries—are dedicated researchers and officials who are determine to raise public
consciousness on the issues of climate change and variability and their impacts on
society.
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On a more tangible plane, we discovered that working together to produce a real
product—the binational, bilingual Border Climate Summary—was feasible and yielded
palpably useful results. We also found that with rapidly growing adoption of the Internet
in Mexico, the exercise permitted us to produce a climate tool that could not have been
achieved five years ago.
Our researchers collected valuable data on the various sectors impacted by climate and
have published and disseminated their findings in a large and diverse set of venues.
These have included academic conferences and symposia, stakeholder workshops, media
outlets, and high-level meetings. As section 5, above, shows, a number of project outputs
are still in the making, with articles in press or in review.
In short, we believe that the work funded by IAI is timely, in demand, and of great
societal relevance to both countries. We also believe that the methodologies we have
employed, with strong emphasis on stakeholder engagement, are highly transferable to
other countries and societies.
13. Summary for Non-Scientific Audiences
The IAI-supported project “Information Flows and Policy: Use of Climate Diagnostics
and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic
Uncertainty in Western North America” has generated relevant applied research and
outreach with stakeholders related to four complementary adaptive management
activities. First, the project produced the U.S.-Mexico Border Climate Summary, an
innovative information and policy product to improve the flow of climate diagnostics on
drought- and monsoon-affected area straddling the U.S.-Mexico border. Second, the
team assessed vulnerability in urban center experiences rapid demographic, industrial,
and economic growth. Third, rural vulnerabilities particularly for groundwater use,
climatic variability, and onset and strength of the North American monsoon were
assessed. Finally, the binational team of scientists and decision-makers undertook
outreach and dissemination of relevant climate and vulnerability information for
decision-makers and managers.
14. Remaining Funds
None expected.
15. Observations on the IAI Program
IAI has successfully seeded collaboration among physical scientists and human/social
dimensions experts. This is particularly manifest in the SGPHD-005 study area of
Arizona and Sonora, where both droughts and cyclones recur in unpredictable ways to
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expose vulnerabilities in rural and urban areas. Without IAI support for this initiative, the
team expects that separate physical and social science research would have proceeded in
isolation. In other words, the significant innovation stemming from IAI support was the
integration across disciplinary boundaries of holistic approaches to climate risk and
adaptation. The research is broadly applicable outside the study region, especially due to
the catalytic role played by the Border Climate Summary in bringing scientists and
decision-makers together. Furthermore, dual urban and rural risks and vulnerabilities
have been explored in ways that would have been more challenging with a more strict
disciplinary focus. Further consultation processes, e.g., “Rethinking Integrated
Assessments and Management Projects in the Americas” (2010 Meeting of Americas,
Foz do Iguaçu, 08–13 August 2010), are under development with IAI support.
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Appendix 1
Ancillary Outputs by Project Team Members
Publications
In print
Frisvold, G. 2009. Strategic behavior in transboundary water and environmental management.
Pp. 279-300 in Policy and Strategic Behaviour in Water Resource Management, edited by A.
Dinar and J. Albiac. London: Earthscan (ISBN: 9781844076697).
Richter, H., D.C. Goodrich, A. Browning-Aiken, and R. Varady. 2009. Integrating Science and
Policy for Water Management. Pp. 388-406 in Ecology and Conservation of the San Pedro
River, edited by J.C. Stromberg and B. Tellman. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona Press.
Serrat-Capdevila, A., A. Browning-Aiken, K. Lansey, T. Finan, and J. B. Valdes. 2009.
Increasing social-ecological resilience by placing science at the decision table: The role of the
San Pedro Basin decision support system model (Arizona). Ecology and Society 14(1):37.
[online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art37/
Ela, W., C. Graf, T. Poulson, J. Baygents, J. Theron, P. Fox, and C.A. Scott. 2008. Salinity
management and desalination technology for brackish water resources in the arid West.
Summary report of workshop on “Improving Salinity Management and Desalination Technology
for Brackish Resources in the Arid West” Sponsored by Arizona Water Institute, Bureau of
Reclamation. June. http://www.azwaterinstitute.org/media/Ela%20Final%20Report
Frisvold, G. and K. Emerick. 2008. Rural-urban water transfers with applications to the U.S.
Mexico border region. Pp. 155-180 in Game Theory and Policy Making in Natural Resources
and the Environment, edited by A. Dinar, J. Albiac, and J. Sanchez-Soriano. New York:
Routledge Press.
Hoover, J. and C.A. Scott. 2008. Water, electric power and growth in southern Arizona. In
Proceedings of American Institute of Professional Geologists and Arizona Hydrological Society
Symposium on “Changing Waterscapes and Water Ethics for the 21st Century.” Flagstaff, AZ.
20-24 Sept.
Jones, J. 2008. With significant contribution from G. M. Garfin, A.J. Ray, C.A. Scott, R.G.
Varady, and M. Wilder. Water and border area climate change: An introduction (issued in
translation as: Agua y cambio climático en el área fronteriza: Una introducción). Special Report
for the XXVI Border Governors Conference. California Department of Water Resources,
Sacramento, CA.
Scott, C.A., E.B. Halper, S.R. Yool, and A. Comrie. 2009. The evolution of urban heat island
and water demand. In Proceedings of the 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological
Society, Eighth Symposium on the Urban Environment, Phoenix, AZ, 11-15 Jan.
http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_150343.htm
Wilder, M. 2008. Equity and water in Mexico’s changing institutional landscape. Pp. 95-116 in
Water, Place, and Equity, edited by R. Perry, H. Ingram, and J. Whiteley. Cambridge:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press.
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Banister, J.M. and C.A. Scott. 2007. Descentralización de los recursos hidráulicos de México:
Por qué tiene importancia la historia (Decentralizing Mexico’s water resources: Why history
matters). Sonárida 12(23): 20-23.
Browning-Aiken, A., B. Morehouse, A. Davis, M. Wilder, R. Varady, D. Goodrich, R. Carter,
D. Moreno, and E.D. McGovern. 2007. Climate, water management, and policy in the San Pedro
basin: Results of a survey of Mexican stakeholders near the U.S.-Mexico border. Climatic
Change 85(Dec.): 323-341.
Díaz, R. 2007. La demanda de agua en las ciudades fronterizas: El caso de Nogales, Sonora.
(Water Demand in Border Cities: The case of Nogales, Sonora). Sonárida 12(23).
Pineda, N. 2007. Construcciones y demoliciones: Participación social y deliberación pública en
los proyectos del acueducto de El Novillo y de la planta desaladora de Hermosillo, 1994-2001.
Región y Sociedad XIX Número Especial, 89-115.
Pineda, N., A. Browning-Aiken and M. Wilder. 2007. Equilibrio de bajo nivel y manejo
urbano del agua en Cananea, Sonora. Frontera Norte 19(37).
Ray, A.J., G.M. Garfin, M. Wilder, M. Vásquez-León, M. Lenart, and A.C. Comrie. 2007.
Applications of monsoon research: Opportunities to inform decisionmaking and reduce regional
vulnerability. Journal of Climate 20(9): 1608-1627.
Ray, A.J., G.M. Garfin, L. Brito-Castillo, M. Cortez-Vázquez, H.F. Diaz, J. Garatuza-Payán, D.
Gochis, R. Lobato-Sánchez, R.G. Varady, and C. Watts. 2007. Monsoon region climate
applications: Integrating climate science with regional planning and policy. Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society 88(6): 933-35.
Rosenberg, N.J., V.M. Mehta, J. R. Olsen, H. von Storch, R.G. Varady, M.J. Hayes, and D.
Wilhite. 2007. Societal adaptation to decadal climate variability in the United States. CRCES
Workshop on Adaptation to Decadal Climate Variability in the United States. Waikoloa, Hawaii.
26-28 Apr. 2007. Eos 88(43): 444.
Scott, C.A., F. Flores-López, J.R. Gastélum. 2007. Appropriation of Río San Juan water by
Monterrey City, Mexico: Implications for agriculture and basin water sharing. Paddy & Water
Environment, special issue on “Transfer of Water from Irrigation to Urban Uses: Lessons from
Case Studies.” 5(4): 253-262, DOI 10.1007/s10333-007-0089-3.
Scott, C.A., R.G. Varady, A. Browning-Aiken, and T.W. Sprouse. 2007. Water and energy
management challenges on the Arizona-Mexico border. In Proceedings of Southwest Hydrology
and Arizona Hydrological Society Regional Water Symposium “Sustainable Water, Unlimited
Growth, Quality of Life: Can We Have It All?” Tucson, AZ. 29 Aug. – 1 Sept.
Scott, C.A., R. G. Varady, A. Browning-Aiken, and T. W. Sprouse. 2007. Water and energy
resources in the Arizona-Sonora border region. Southwest Hydrology 6 (5): 26-27, 31.
Varady, R.G., A. Browning-Aiken, G. Garfin, D. Goodrich, B. Morehouse, and M. Wilder.
2007. Use of climate-information products by water managers and other stakeholders in two
GCIP/GAPP watersheds in Arizona/Sonora and Oklahoma. Final Report to NOAA OAR Climate
Program Office (CPO). Tucson, AZ: Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy.
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In press
Jacobs, K., Garfin, G., Buizer, J., 2010. New Techniques at the Science-Policy Interface:
Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector. Science and Policy.
Hutchinson, C. F., R. G. Varady, and S. Drake. 2009. What's old and what's new in arid lands
water management? In Water, Ecosystems and Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-arid
Zones, edited by G. Schneier-Madanes and M.F. Courel. Springer.
Milman, A., C.A. Scott. In press. Beneath the surface: Intra-national institutions and
management of the United States – Mexico transboundary Santa Cruz aquifer. Environment and
Planning C: Government and Policy.
Richter, H., D. C. Goodrich, A. Browning-Aiken, R.G. Varady. 2009. Integrating science and
policy for water management. Pp. 388-406 in Ecology and Conservation of the San Pedro River,
edited by J.C. Stromberg and B.J. Tellman. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona Press.
In review and in preparation
Browning-Aiken, A., K.J. Ormerod, C.A. Scott. Submitted, in review. Testing the climate for
non-potable water reuse: Opportunities and challenges in water-scarce urban growth corridors.
Journal of Environmental Planning & Policy.
Browning-Aiken, A., T. Sprouse, M. Iles, G. Saliba, and A. McCoy. In review. Collaborative
resource management theory and practice: Lessons from three Arizona watershed organizations.
Díaz, R. and M. Wilder. In review. Water, climate change, and peri-urban vulnerabilities in
northwest Mexico.
Garfin, G., N. Lee, V. Magana, R. Stewart, J. T. Rolfe, and J. McEvoy. 2009 (submitted).
CHANGE: Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the Environment.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Scott, C.A., S. Megdal, L.A. Oroz, J. Callegary, and P. Vandervoet. Submitted, in review.
Assessment of United States – Mexico transboundary aquifers facing climate change and growth
in urban water demand. Climate Research.
Wilder, M., A. Ray, N. Pineda, and R. Díaz. In preparation. Social and economic vulnerability
to climate change in the U.S.-Mexico borderlands. For submission to Journal of Climate
Research.
Conference Presentations and Participation
Browning-Aiken, A. and C.A. Scott. 2009. Drought and adaptive water-resources management
in southern Arizona, for “Managing Hydrologic Extremes”, Arizona Hydrological Society &
American Institute of Hydrology, Scottsdale, AZ, August 31 – September 2, 2009.
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Browning-Aiken, A. 2009. The Potential for increasing social ecosystem resilience:
Collaborative planning and institutional assessment. UNESCO HELP Program Seminar, Lisbon,
Portugal 23-26 June.
Browning-Aiken, A. 2008. Opportunities and challenges in Arizona for nonpotable water use.
Arizona Hydrological Society - 21st Annual Symposium, Flagstaff, AZ. 24-25 Sept.
Browning-Aiken, A. 2007 Retos para implementar planeación hidrológica transfronteriza:
Cambios de políticas recientes, regímenes de gestión, y practicas institucionales en EEUU y
México. WWF4 FT 2.33 Advancing Local Actions in Basins, sub-Basins and Aquifers through
Comprehensive IWRM Learning and Global Networks. 4th World Water Forum. Mexico City,
Mexico. 16-22 March.
Browning-Aiken, A. 2007. A river running in the desert: Lessons for IWRM from the San Pedro
HELP Basin on the U.S.-Mexico border. HELP Southern Symposium: HELP in Action -- Local
Solutions to Global Water Problems -- Lessons from the South. South Africa, Gauteng. 4-9 Nov.
Browning-Aiken, A., D. Goodrich, R. Varady, and H. Richter. 2007. Lessons for integrated
water resources management from the San Pedro HELP Basin on the U.S.-Mexico border. Eos
Trans. Fall AGU Meeting. Supplement, Abstract H21F-0809. San Francisco, CA. 10-14 Dec.
Díaz, R. 2008. Water for the environment and livelihoods: The case study of Alamos. Annual
Meeting of the Association of American Geographers. Boston, MA. 15-19 April.
Díaz, R. 2007. Water management, sustainability and the challenge of drought: Geographies of
conservation in northern México. Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers.
San Francisco, CA. 17-21 April.
Farfán L.M. 2008. Update on border climate-related research. Research Group Meeting on
Border Water, Growth and Climate Projects. University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ. 26 Sept.
Farfán, L.M., D. Pozo, G.B. Raga, R. Romero-Centeno, and J. Zavala-Hidalgo. 2008. A training
course on tropical cyclones over the eastern Pacific Ocean. American Geophysical Union Spring
Assembly, Ft. Lauderdale, FL. 27-30 May.
Farfán, L.M. and M.A. Cosio. A weather analysis system for the Baja California peninsula:
Tropical cyclone season of 2007. American Geophysical Union Spring Assembly, Ft.
Lauderdale, FL. 27-30 May.
Garfin, G., R. Varady, and A. Ray. 2007. Establishing an ongoing binational U.S.-Mexico
border climate diagnostic summary: Developing a prototype and navigating the institutional
landscape. Presented at AGU Joint Assembly. Acapulco, Mexico. 23 May.
Goodrich, D., A. Browning-Aiken, R.G. Varady, and H. Richter. 2007. Lessons for integrated
water resources management from the San Pedro HELP Basin on the U.S.-Mexico border. AGU
Meeting. San Francisco, CA. 10-14 Dec.
Goodrich, D. H. Richter, R. Varady, A. Browning-Aiken, and J. Shuttleworth. 2007. The Upper
San Pedro Partnership: A case study of successful strategies to connect science to societal needs.
Presented at AGU Joint Assembly. Acapulco, Mexico. 25 May.
Pineda, N.. 2008. Los enfoques actuales del desarrollo regional. II Semana Académica. ITSON.
Empalme, Sonora, Mexico. 23 Oct.
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Romero-Lankao, P. 2009. Societal and environmental challenges to water management and use,
lessons and insights from Mexico City. ASLO Aquatic Sciences Meeting. Nice, France. 28 Jan.
Scott, C.A., R.G. Varady, G.M. Garfin, and others. 2009 Researcher-Managers Workshop on
Water and Energy Sustainability with Rapid Growth in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region,
Arizona Water Institute, Tucson, AZ, June 1, 2009.
Scott, C.A. 2009. Panelist: Agua, territorio, y medio ambiente: políticas públicas y participación
ciudadana (Water, land, and environment: public policy and citizen participation), International
Congress of Americanists, Mexico City, July 21, 2009.
Scott, C.A. 2009. Rural vulnerability to water resources variability under climatic uncertainty in
western North America, for session “The Water Wars: Water as a Commodity or as a Human
Right”, International Congress of Americanists, Mexico City, July 23, 2009.
Scott, C.A. 2009. Session chair: Water, energy, and global change (co-sponsored by Water
Resources and Energy & Environment Specialty Groups). Association of American Geographers
Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, NV. 22-27 Mar.
Scott, C.A. 2009. Panelist, Integrated water resources management: Best practices for
stakeholder engagement in water resources planning. Water Resources Research Center 2009
Annual Conference, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 17 Mar.
Scott, C.A. 2009. The global commodification of wastewater. Panel on New Trends in
Regulation, Symposium on Water Governance: the Public-Private Debate. Organized by Centre
National de la Recherche Scientifique and Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and
Riparian Areas, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 4 Feb.
Scott, C.A. 2008. The United States – Mexico transboundary aquifer assessment program. Water
Resources Research Center Seminar Series, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 8 Dec.
Scott, C.A. 2008. Session chair: H42 Adaptation and mitigation under climate change and
uncertainty. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA. 15-19 Dec.
Scott, C.A. 2008. Cactus, riparian habitat, and turf grass: Water budget and policy implications
of vegetation change under urban heat island and effluent irrigation in the southwest U.S.
American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA. 15-19 Dec.
Scott, C.A. 2008. Building shared vision: Assessment of transboundary aquifers along the
United States – Mexico border. International Conference on Water Scarcity, Global Changes,
and Groundwater: Management Responses. University of California – Irvine, UNESCO, USGS,
1-5 Dec.
Scott, C.A. 2008. Groundwater rights in Mexican agriculture: Spatial distribution and social and
economic determinants. Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting. Boston, MA 19
Apr.
Scott, C.A. 2007. Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with
implications for the U.S. border region. First Western Forum on Energy and Water
Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa
Barbara, CA. 22 Mar.
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Scott, C.A., 2007. The water-energy nexus in Mexico: Groundwater sustainability along the
border with the United States. Hydrology & Water Resources Departmental Seminar Series,
University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 21 Feb.
Scott, C.A. 2007. Water and energy management challenges on the Arizona-Mexico border.
Southwest Hydrology and Arizona Hydrological Society Regional Water Symposium. Tucson,
AZ. 31 Aug.
Scott, C.A., Session chair: Coupled water and energy demand in the Southwest and U.S.-Mexico
border region. Southwest Hydrology and Arizona Hydrological Society Regional Water
Symposium. Tucson, AZ. 31 Aug.
Varady, R.G., G. Garfin, B. Morehouse, and M. Wilder. 2007. Institutions and societal
impacts of climate in the Lower Colorado and San Pedro Basins of the U.S.-Mexico Border
region. Presented at AGU Joint Assembly. Acapulco, Mexico. 25 May.
Wilder, M. 2008. Una sobre-vista de los proyectos NOAA-SARP y CLIMAS. Inter-American
Institute on Global Change Research (IAI) Stakeholders’ Workshop. Universidad de Sonora.
Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. 7 Nov.
Wilder, M. 2008. Sobre agua, ciudades y gestión adaptiva. Inter-American Institute on Global
Change Research (IAI) Stakeholders’ Workshop. Universidad de Sonora. Hermosillo, Sonora,
Mexico. 7 Nov.
Wilder, M. 2008. Overview of NOAA-SARP and CLIMAS projects on water, cities, and
adaptive management. Institute for the Study of Planet Earth and Udall Center for Studies in
Public Policy, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 26 Sept.
Wilder, M. 2008. Promises under construction: The evolving water governance paradigm and
the case of northern Mexico. Invited participant at the Rosenberg International Forum for Water
Policy. Zaragoza, Spain, 23-28 June.
Wilder, M. 2008. How does the public fit in? Climate change, adaptation and social stakeholders
in the Southwest US and Northwest Mexico. Guest lecture, Department of Political Science,
University of Redlands. Redlands, CA. 16 May.
Wilder, M. 2008. New geographies of environmental governance: Communities, conservation
and climate change in the Colorado Delta and border region. Spaces and Society Lecture Series,
Department of Political Science, University of Redlands. Redlands, CA. 15 May.
Wilder, M. 2008. New geographies of environmental governance: Communities, conservation
and climate change in the Colorado Delta and border region. Association of the American
Geographers Annual Meeting. Boston, MA. 17 April.
Wilder, M. 2008. The environment for water: 21st-Century transitions in Mexican water policy
and implications for Sonora. Rocky Mountain Council on Latin American Studies (RMCLAS)
2008 Meeting. Flagstaff, AZ. 11 Apr.
Wilder, M. 2008. Transboundary water: Problems and challenges. Presented to Mexican
Migration Scholarship Meeting, Consortium of North American Higher Education (CONAHEC),
University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 9 Apr.
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Wilder, M. 2008. Water governance in Mexico. Presented to the International Water History
Association (IWHA) Board. Tucson, AZ. 19 Mar.
Wilder, M. 2008. Communities, conservation, and climate change: New geographies of
environmental governance in the binational Colorado Delta Region. Department of Geography
and Regional Development Colloquium, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. Feb.
Wilder, M., R.G. Varady, N. Pineda, A. Browning-Aiken, R. Díaz, and G. Garfin. 2007.
New water management institutions in Mexico’s ‘new culture of water’: Emerging opportunities
and challenges for effective use of climate knowledge and climate science. Presented at AGU
Joint Assembly. Acapulco, Mexico. 23 May.
30