IIFET 2014, Brisbane.
“Anticipating the unintended consequences of environmental
management in a marine socio-ecological system using
qualitative loop analysis.”
Giles Austen
Sarah Jennings
Jeff Dambacher
UTAS
UTAS
CSIRO
giles@austen.net.au
sarah.jennings@utas.edu.au
jeff.dambacher@csiro.au
Economics as a broad social science
(Radzicki 2003: 135)
An ecosystem considered dialectically
BANKSY, 1999
“... the ways in which socio-political and ecological projects intertwine with and at some
point become indistinguishable from each other.” (Harvey 1996: 183)
Research Questions
★
In considering coupled biological human systems how is the efficacy of
restorative policies in improving resource viability and ecosystem health
affected by alternatively specified social, economic and ecological
relationships?
★
How does a dialectical approach and sympathetic qualitative modelling
methodology assist in understanding the dynamics associated with such
complex systems and the effects of perturbation?
★
Can standard neoclassical economic relationships be specified within a
dialectic loop model?
Method
★
Dialectic abstraction
A process of considering the whole from alternative perspectives
while always asking where the rest of the world lies with respect to a
particular abstraction
(Lewontin & Levins 2007)
★
Loop modelling
A qualitative modelling technique established in ecology and
sympathetic to a process of dialectic abstraction
(Puccia & Levins 1985)
Market Adjustment Process
Price
alternative abstractions
PS
PS'
p = λ (ap − q)
1
q = µ ( p − q)
b
P
P
(Beckman and Ryder 1969)
QD
⎡ λ a −1 ⎤
⎥
J=⎢
−1
⎢ µ
b ⎥⎦
⎣
p
q
Q
Q
b0 1
+ Q
b b
a < 0, b > 0, a0 > b0 , a < b
QD = a0 + aP , PS = −
Quantity
p= P−P
q = Q−Q
Introducing intervening processes to
model links
p
q
DF
p
DY
Social
q
DF
Economic
F
p
q
X
F
Y
Ecological
Stock
Change
1
∂g
× adj(−A) ×
dph
det(−A)
∂ ph
{
{
{
{
dN * =
Overall
Feedback
Adjoint Analysis
Complementary
Perturbation
Feedback
(Dambacher and Ramos-Jilberto 2007)
perturbation and complementary feedback
p
q
p ⎡ + − ⎤
⎢
⎥
q ⎣ + + ⎦
p
q
DF
DX p
p
q
F X Y DY
DX ⎡ + − + − − +
p ⎢ + ? ? − − +
⎢
q ⎢ ? ? ? ? ? ?
⎢
F ⎢ ? ? ? ? ? ?
X ⎢ − ? ? ? ? ?
Y ⎢ − ? ? ? ? ?
⎢
DY ⎣ − + − + + −
q
DF
D p q F
q
F
− ⎤
⎥
− ⎥
? ⎥
? ⎥
⎥
+ ⎥
+ ⎥
+ ⎥⎦
Perturbation
p
D ⎡ + 0 0 0 ⎤
p ⎢ + + − − ⎥
⎢
⎥
q ⎢ + + + + ⎥
S ⎢⎣ + + − + ⎥⎦
DY
Effect
F
X
Y
? ambiguity in co-factor, e.g. p to p
+ a77 a11 (a66 a55 a44 a33 + a66 a54 a45 a33 + a64 a45 a56 a33)
+ a76 a67 (a54 a45 a33 a11 + a55 a44 a33 a11)
- a71 a17 (a66 a55 a44 a33 + a66 a54 a45 a33 + a64 a45 a56 a33)
Model variables
DF
DY
DF ... demand for fish
p
... price gap for fish, zero at equilibrium
q
... quantity gap for fish, zero at equilibrium
F
... fishery catch and supply of fish
X
... fish biomass
p
q
F
Y ... habitat / ecosystem
DY ... demand for habitat health / existence value
X
Y
1
2
DF
p
DY
q
7
Social
Adjoint Analysis
3
Economic
alternatively specified social, economic and ecological relationships
4
F
5
X
Y
6
Ecological
Achieving positive environmental outcomes presents contradiction ...
if
and/(,)
(and)
a71 a17
a77 a11
a76 a67
Y
strong
weak
F
X
strong
weak
6,6
Y
Y
weak
strong
5,6
Y
X
weak
strong
6,5
X
Y
strong
weak
5,5
X
X
weak
strong
A positive perturbation to
results in positive outcome for
6,4
F
5,4
* ambiguous result
Alternative specifications - ecological system, technology, market specifications, technology
weak
weak (a76 a17)
strong
*
*
*
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
•
Capital is an evolving ecological system.
We cannot view components in isolation.
We must understand the implications of establishing boundaries.
We need to envision in a multidisciplinary environment.
Dialectic abstraction and loop modelling provide essential tools.
References
Beckmann, M. J. and H. E. Ryder (1969). "Simultaneous price and quantity adjustment in a single market."
Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 470-484.
Dambacher, J. M. and R. Ramos-Jiliberto (2007). "Understanding and Predicting Effects of Modified Interactions
Through a Qualitative Analysis of Community Structure." The Quarterly Review of Biology 82(3): 227-250.
Harvey, D. (1996). Justice, nature and the geography of difference. Oxford, Blackwell.
Lewontin, R. and R. Levins (2007). Biology Under The Influence. Dialectical Essays on Ecology, Agriculture and Health.
New York, Monthly Review Press.
Puccia, C. J. and R. Levins (1985). Qualitative Modelling of Complex Systems. An introduction to loop analysis and time
averaging. Cambridge, Mass, Harvard University Press.
Radzicki, M. J. (2003). “Mr. Hamilton, Mr. Forrester, and a foundation for evolutionary economics.” Journal of
Economic Issues 37(1): 133-173.
The inherent danger in relying on market solutions for
socio ecological policy settings ...
BANKSY, 2011