Gordons Bay Fire 6-12 Dec 2008
What happened
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Fire started in the Elgin basin (possibly agricultural land)
Strong winds on the 6th Dec 2008
Fire caused by people
"The combination of a north-easterly wind up in the
mountain and a southeaster lower down makes it even
more difficult controlling the fire"
• About 120 firefighters were being assisted by staff of
Nature Conservation, Bulk Water Services and Working on
Fire to fight the fires across the Cape. Volunteers of the
Disaster Risk Management Centre were assisting with
firefighting and public safety-related matters. On Monday
the SA Weather Service issued a high fire danger rating for
the rest of the week.
6
7
8
9
Scar
Scar on 8th
MODIS (1,5,7)
Were we prepared?
• FDI (as calculated by us) 6-9 December 2008
• Fuel loads
• Weather
Fire Danger Index (FDI)
Fire Danger Index (FDI)
6 –9 December 2008
66
64
Fire Danger Index
62
60
58
56
54
6-12-2008
7-12-2008
8-12-2008
Date
9-12-2008
Fuel loads (1)Fire history (David Roy MODIS burned area products):
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2000, 2001 – no fire
2002 – small fires SE of RockView dam
2003 – no fire (previous year fire scar still visible)
2004 - 8 – various small fires to the east of the
plantations (forestry operations?)
 December 2008 – larger area of natural veld at least 8
years or older; high rainfall area => high standing fuel
load
Fuel loads (3)MODIS EVI
• Seasonal variation
• Slight downward trend between 2000 – 2008
=> alien clearing or maturing of veld (there
will be a flush of green straight after fire) but a
gradual reduction in growth as vegetation
senesces
Fuel loads (2)- Veld age
Much of veld last burnt more than 10 years ago
Consequences (deaths, infrastructure,
ha burnt)
News24: 9 December 2008:
• gutted homes at Gordon's Bay - two homes were
completely burned out on Monday night, and another
seven affected to varying degrees
• 80 people were evacuated from the area
• fire had threatened offices, staff quarters, and stores in
the Steenbras forestry reserve on Monday night, but it
was controlled there and the houses and buildings
saved.
• No one was injured, but five firefighters had been
given medical attention, four of them for smoke
inhalation and one for a twisted ankle.
Damage
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Total area burned: 11 825 ha
Natural areas: 11 465
Urban areas: ~1
Plantations: 280
Agricultural areas: 60 ha
50
Could we have been better prepared
5 December 2008 (News24):
• Cape Town - The Western Cape faces a major wildfire risk
this summer, Working on Fire (WoF) warned on Friday.
"The weather is expected to be exceptionally hot and dry.
Heavier than average winter rain has stimulated plant
growth, increasing fuel loads," the government-funded fire
management organisation said in its December newsletter.
• WoF provincial manager Pierre Combrinck said climate data
showed the province was entering a five-year phase of
longer, wetter winters and windier, drier summers.
"That means more wild fires. This season we expect the
worst fires in January and February," he said
In conclusion
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We had FDI warning
We had remote sensed information
We had fuel load information
But if the fire was started it would have spread
no matter what