TAMPA BAY REGONIAL
PLANNING COUNCIL
ONE BAY LIVABLE
COMMUNITIES
Multifamily Trends in Tampa Bay
Residential Opportunities on
Transportation Development Sites
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
2008
Oct. 2011
2009
Aug. 2012
2010
Aug. 2013
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
HILL
PIN
SAR
POLK
MAN
PAS
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
HILL
PIN
SAR
POLK
MAN
PAS
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
2008
2009
2010
PIN
SAR
2011
2012
2013
MAN
PAS
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
HILL
POLK
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
OCCUPANCY TRENDS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
HILL
PIN
SAR
POLK
MAN
PAS
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL PRICING TRENDS
2008
2009
2010
PIN
SAR
2011
2012
2013
MAN
PAS
$950
$900
$850
$800
$750
$700
HILL
POLK
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
2013 TAMPA BAY AREA
PIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT
UC/Leasing
2012
MARKET
Planned/Proposed
2012 – 2013
2013
2013 – 2014
Dev
Units
Dev
Units
Dev
Units
Dev
Units
Hills
11
3,333
13
2,829
2
3,968
12
3,417
Pinellas
3
639
12
2,172
11
2,998
9
2,404
Pasco
2
558
4
856
7
2,403
5
1,674
Polk
0
0
0
0
1
240
0
0
Manatee
1
272
2
567
7
1,977
3
1,169
Sarasota
0
0
1
326
4
998
2
670
Bay Area
17
4,802
32
6,750
32
12,584
31
9,334
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
HILLSBOROUGH PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
PINELLAS PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
PASCO PIPELINE
2
2
1
3
4 3
1
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
MANATEE/SARASOTA PIPELINE
1
1
3
2
3
2
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES
OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND
SUPPLY
SUPPLY REMAINS UNBALANCED COMPARED TO DEMAND –
LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION PICKING UP - CONTINUED
SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING FOR LIFESTYLE &
CONSUMER CHOICE – BAY AREA NEEDING 3K TO 4K PER YEAR
INCOMES
ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) –
SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS – RENTING MORE AFFORD THAN
OWNERSHIP
CONSUMERS
ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES –
- BETTER LOCATIONS – LESS COMMUTING – URBAN/SUBURBAN –
LIFESTYLE CHOICES
THEORY
METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW
OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY
CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET
PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
BAY AREA MULTIFAMILY TRENDS
HIL
SUBURBAN LAND OPPS IN BRANDON, WESTCHASE, WESTSHORE &
DOWNTOWN ACTIVE NEW CONS WESTSHORE. BRANDON & WESTSHORE & \
DOWNTOWN – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW
PIN
CONS IN GATEWAY, CARRILON & URBAN ST PETE – MARKET RECOVERY
HAPPENING NOW - URBAN & URBAN/SUBURBAN MOST ACTIVE
PAS
ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF
DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET
RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW, AS LAND DIMINISHES MOVEMENT NORTH
POL
LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOWER OCC & FINANCING DIFFICULTIES
MAN
LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM
SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE –
CONS ACTIVITY IN LWR & I-75 AT THIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY STRONG
SAR
NEW CONST FINALLY RETURNING DWNTWN & I-75 CORRIDOR –
MARKET NOW IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE – OCC & RENT GROWTH
VERY STRONG
GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST RETURNING STRONGLY – DEMAND IS STILL
CONTINUING TO GROW DUE TO HOUSING SHIFTS & ECONOMIC TIMES OCC RECOVERY TO 95%-97% & ANNUAL RENTAL REVUEW GROWTH
HAPPENING NOW – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA GOOD OPPORTUNITIES FOR 24-48 MONTHS – MOSTLY URBAN & STRONG
SUBURBAN.
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
TAMPA BAY REGONIAL
PLANNING COUNCIL
ONE BAY LIVABLE COMMUNITIES
THANK YOU
TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.