NEXTOR Annual Research Symposium
November 14, 1997
Session III
Issues for the Future of ATM
Synthesis of a Future ATM
Operational Concept
Aslaug Haraldsdottir, Boeing
ATM Concept Baseline Definition
Aslaug Haraldsdottir et.al.
NEXTOR First Annual Research Symposium
FAA Headquarters
November 14, 1997
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Introduction
“This statement of work describes a task that will define and document
the probable evolution of the National Airspace System (NAS) through
the year 2015, based on current documents and on-going work by the
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA), and industry.”
(Project Statement of Work, drafted December 1996)
(Work commenced in early May 1997)
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Project Participants
•
•
•
•
FAA Operational Concept Development Team
NASA Ames, AATT Program
Boeing Commercial Airplane Group (Seattle)
NEXTOR (FAA Center of Excellence in ATM Operations
Research)
– MIT
– Berkeley
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Preliminary Design Questions
• How big should it be?
– capacity, access
• How much can it cost?
– capital investment, operational efficiency, productivity and
maintenance
• How well must it perform?
– safety, sustainability
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Mission, Requirements, Concepts and Architecture
Mission Requirement
•Stakeholder Objectives
•Safety Constraints
Traffic
Demand
Scenarios
Goals
Alternative
Operational
Concepts
• Safety
• Capacity
• Efficiency
Concept Development
•Enroute
•Term/Surface
•Aircraft
Concept
Synth
esis
Revise
Available and
Emerging
Technologies
Required
Performance
Analysis
P:
CP, RNP, RMP
perational
provements
Human Factors
and Operations
Performance
Concept Evaluation
•Technology Alternatives Metrics
•Safety Analysis
•Economic Analysis
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System Design
and Implementation
Revise
System Development ATM System
and Integration
Specs
•Architecture
•Simulation
•Prototyping
Concept Definition
Decision
Evaluaton
5
NAS Capacity Study - Notional Capacity Effects
Airspace Capacity Limit
(Theoretical)
Current NAS
Future NAS
Waste
CNS/ATM
Benefit ???
Operating Integrity Threshold ???
Critical Year ???
Time
(Air Traffic Growth)
Source: American Airline NAS Capacity Study, 1997
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NAS Capacity Study Conclusions
Cost Avoidance as Basis of Infrastructure Investment
4% Percent Growth in Enplanements and 2.3% Annualized Traffic Growth
Airspace Delays will Dramatically Constrain Airline Operations and
Scheduling Opportunities in the Next Decade
Northeast “triangle”, Southeast and Southwest Regions Acute
Reducing Separations (7 nm to 3 nm En Route; 4 nm to 2 nm in the
Terminal; Wake Vortex from 4.5-1.9 to 2.5-1.5) and Adding Departure
Runways can Provide 25+ Years of Operation
Source: American Airline NAS Capacity Study, 1997
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ATM System Functional Structure
Planning
Execution
Desired
Sector
Loads
Schedule of
Capacities
er
Filed
Flight
Plans
g
Approved
Planned
Flight
Flow
National
Facility
Sector
Plans
Rates
Flow
Flow
Traffic
Planning
Planning
Planning
Flight
chedule
hrs - day
e
CFMU
hrs
5-20 min
TMU
D-side
Clearance
Requests
Clearance
Requests
Approved
Handoffs
Negotiate
Handoffs
Sector
Traffic
Control
AOC
Aircraft
Vectors
Guidance and
Clearances Navigation
Aircr
< 5 min
Traffic
Sensor
5 min
R-side
Pilot
Real State
Plan/Intent
Measurement
Requests
Efficiency
AC State
Sensor
Throughput
Other Aircraft
States
Safety
Increasing Criticality Level
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Separation Standard and Performance Factors
ource-Constrained
Effective
Theoretical
ntervention Rate
RNP, RMP, RCP
Intervention
RMP, RCP
play
ather
dium-Term Intent
a Controller
mm: g/g
ot
w Rates
space Complexity
Sensor
Display
Short-Term Intent
Controller
Comm: a/g
Pilot
Closure Rate
Effective
Resource-Constrained
Detection
RMP
Sensor
Display
Controller
Pilot
Required Element Performance
RxP = f (sensors, decision support, human)
Required System Performance sets Separation Standard
RSP = g ( RCP, RMP, RNP )
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Alternative Operational Concepts
2015 NAS
Current NAS
Precision, Trajectory-Based
Separation Assurance
TMA Radar
Vectoring
Strategic
Concepts
(eg, CATMAC)
Traffic
Density
Free
Flight
En Route
Radar
Control
Procedural
Control
Short-Term
Medium-Term
Long-Term
Traffic Planning Horizon
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Proposed CNS/ATM Technologies
Planning
Execution
t
ule
Desired
Sector
Loads
Schedule of
Capacities
Filed
Flight
Plans
Approved
Planned
Flight
Flow
National
Facility
Sector
Plans
Rates
Flow
Flow
Traffic
Planning
Planning
Planning
g
hrs - day
AOCNET
CDM
Delay Est.
NASWIS
er
tatus
hrs
CTAS
SMA
5-20 min
UPR
URET
CTAS
SMA
Clearance
Requests
Voice
CPDLC
ACA
Approved
Handoffs
Negotiate
Handoffs
CPDLC
Traffic
Control
Clearances
Vectors
Voice
5 min
CTAS
Aircraft
Guidance and
Navigation
Airc
< 5 min
Traffic
Sensor
ADS-B
CDTI
ATN
Radar Net
AC State
Sensor
Tracker
ADS-A
ADS-B
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AOC
Other Aircraf
States
11
CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram
Arr/Dep Trans (4)
Improved Throughput
RNP0.3
Nav
Close
Routes
Criteria
NAS
Capacity
RMP 0.3
Surv
Reduced Lateral Spacings:
More Arr & Dep Trans
Airspace
Design
TFM Seq
Spacing
Tool
Final
Approach
Spacing
Tool
Reduced Separation
Buffer (Ground Vectoring)
Radar
Trackers
RTA
Reduced Separation
Short
Term
C.A.
A/G Data
Link
Buffer (A/C Guidance)
RMP0.1
Surv
CDTI
ADS-B
(A/G)
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Reduced Horizontal
Separation Standard
RNP0.1
Nav
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Future System Thrusts
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Uniform CNS Infrastructure Throughout NAS
Performance-Based Access to Airspace and Services
Airspace Configured Dynamically Based on Density Level
Precision Trajectory-Based Separation Assurance
User Flexibility in Low Density Airspace
Collaborative Flow Management
Separation Assurance Remains Shared Between Air and
Ground
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Conclusions
1 Traffic growth predictions indicate NAS traffic gridlock by
2006
– terminal area will be the primary choke point
– airline hubbing operations become infeasible
– costs escalate and economic growth is hampered
2 Current approach to NAS modernization will not
accommodate the predicted growth
– pace is too slow to respond to market needs
– system development process is inadequate
• technology driven to point solutions
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Recommendations
1 NAS capacity must be increased
– additional/reliever airports and runways, and
– higher terminal area traffic density
• improvements in communications, navigation and surveillance
for reduced separations
• changes in the separation assurance work system to achieve
capacity goals
• coordinated traffic flow management that supports higher
capacity and efficiency
2 A major change is needed in the system development
process
– high-level trades before major design decisions
– concept validation must incorporate human factors and technology
– determine level of risk and criticality requirements, ground and air
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