Motivation for Session
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
NAS Performance Workshop-1
Evans 9/6/2007
Outline
• Traffic for 2005, 2006 and 2007 is less than traffic in 2000
• “Capacity” has increased significantly since 2007
• So why are delays for 2005 through 2007 as bad or worse than
2000?
NEXTOR workshop2
Evans 9/6/2007
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Change in Operations by Major Airport
July 2007 vs. July 2000
SEA
-20%
DTW
-19%
MSP
-16%
ORD
+2%
SLC
+15%
LAS
+31%
SFO
-11%
LAX
-10%
SAN
+16%
STL
-46%
DFW
-21%
IAH
+21%
Overall change= - 7%
NEXTOR workshop3
Source:
Evans 9/6/2007
JFK
+23%
IAD
-16%
EWR
-4%
DCA
-19%
CVG
-30%
MEM
-9%
PHX
-17%
BWI
-6%
CLE
-27%
MDW
-4%
DEN
+19%
BOS
-24%
LGA
+5%
PHL
+4%
ATL
+16%
TPA
-9%
MCO
+3%
FLL
+6%
MIA
-25%
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
OPSNET, Weekdays
Overall Change = -7%
Preliminary Data as of 08/06/07
PDX
-17%
ARTCC operations in 2007 relative to 2000
-12%
Overall = +1%
0%
-1%
0%
+12%
+3%
-11%
-7%
+6%
+1%
-27%
+10%
+6%
-7%
-13%
+4%
+1%
+4%
-3%
+8%
+2%
+12%
April
-13%
+20%
Overall = 0%
-13%
-2%
+6%
-10%
+2%
-11%
-4%
-3%
-5%
+2%
+2%
-3%
+4%
-1%
-28%
+3%
-3%
+3%
+5%
+9%
+14%
+4%
-28%
+1%
-6%
-1%
-10%
-4%
+1%
0%
-5%
+5%
+6%
Overall = -1%
February
-4%
-13%
0%
-1%
-9%
+6%
+7%
-2%
Overall = -1%
-7%
-13%
+7%
+5%
+2%
-20%
-10%
+1%
+1%
-8%
+9%
March
+5%
+4%
+9%
+16%
OPSNET; Weekdays; Difference based on average weekday ops;
Overall percent change includes ZAN difference in operations
NEXTOR workshop4
Evans 9/6/2007
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Preliminary Data as of 06/05/07
May
OEP Estimate of Capacity Enhancement
OEP presentations suggest a 13-23% capacity enhancement has occurred since 2001
NEXTOR workshop5
Evans 9/6/2007
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
OPSNET Delays
2000
2005
2006
Jun
Jul
2007
Preliminary Data as of 9/03/07
60
50
thousands
40
30
20
10
0
Jan
NEXTOR workshop6
Evans 9/6/2007
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
All Facilities
Cumulative OPSNET Delays
2000
2005
2006
2007
Preliminary Data as of 09/03/07
600
500
thousands
400
300
200
100
0
Jan
NEXTOR workshop7
Evans 9/6/2007
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
All Facilities
Questions for Discussion
• What is likely to be the principal cause(s) of the persistence
(and perhaps, growth) in NAS delays given the investments
the FAA has made since 2000?
• How one might decide between alternative theories as to
the cause?
• What the implications of the principal causes of the delays
are for:
–
The metrics that the FAA uses to assess how well it is doing
– How the FAA should allocate its resources to reducing the
delays
NEXTOR workshop8
Evans 9/6/2007
MIT Lincoln Laboratory