Malta Climate Team
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Change in weather
patterns over a certain
period of time
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Rainfall patterns
Temperature
Climate Change is defined by the IPCC as the change in the state of the climate that can be
identified using statistical tests by changes in the mean, and or the variability of its properties,
and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.
It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of
human activity.
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Temperature change:
0.10 - 0.16 °C every decade from 1956 – 2005
Global Warming is
tangible way to see
Climate Change
It means a rise in
average temperature
observed over a long
period of time.
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We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors
but we borrow it from our children
-Chief Seattle
Consequences:
• Change in frequency of Extreme events:
• Decrease in cold days & cold nights.
• Increase in hot days & hot nights including Heat Wave occurrence.
• Increase of heavy precipitation events.
• Precipitation change:
• Increased in Eastern N/S America, N Europe & most of Asia.
• Decrease in the Sahel, Mediterranean, S Africa & S Asia.
• Increase in Global drought affected areas since the 1970s.
• Sea level rise:
• 1.3 - 2.3 mm per year (1961 - 2003)
• 2.4 - 3.8 mm per year (1993 - 2003)
• 57% due to thermal expansion
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The representation of the complex Earth
system interactions through mathematical
computer models.
Computer models are used for weather
prediction and long-term climate simulations.
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Climate Research is
the use of Climate
Models in order to
simulate past, present
and future events in
an attempt to predict
changes in climate.
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We need to assume different scenarios of how
the
world
may
change
using
the
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
(IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios
(SRES).
These scenarios effect climatological parameters
differently and are implemented within the
Climate Models.
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A1
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A1FI
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A2
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B1
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Focus on non-fossil Technologies.
A1B
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Focus on Fossil-Intensive technologies.
A1T
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Rapid economic growth.
Population peak in mid century.
Rapid introduction of new & more
efficient technologies.
B2
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Balance between A1FI and A1T.
Heterogeneous world.
High population growth.
Slow economic development.
Slow technological change.
Same global population as A1.
Rapid changes in economic structures.
Intermediate population growth.
Intermediate economic growth.
(L to R) Noel Aquilina, William Healey, Jason Padovani
Ginies, Norbert Bonnici, James Ciarlo`, Candy Spiteri,
Deandra Cutajar, Jessica Falzon
The Department of Physics has been active on Climate
issues since 2001.
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National Communications
MEPA on behalf of the Government of Malta entrusted the Department
of Physics with the coordination and preparation of the First (20012004) and Second National Communications (2004-2010) to the
UNFCCC. Professor C.V. Sammut was the Project Manager and
Professor A. Micallef was the National Expert.
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The setting up of the MCT
Following the FNC, the license to operate the first regional climate
model, PRECIS was acquired. Since then Dr N. Aquilina led the
climate research and formed the MCT.
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Regional Climate Models
 PRECIS
 Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies
 by the Hadley Centre, UK Met Office
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RegCM4.0
 Regional Climate Model version 4.0
 Developed by NCAR; maintained by the ICTP
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Numerical Weather Prediction Model
 WRF
 Weather Research and Forecasting
 Developed by NCAR, NCEP, FSL, AFWA, University of
Oklahoma, and FAA.
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Undergraduate Projects 2009-2010
Subject: Validation of the RCM PRECIS in the
Mediterranean Region:
across Vertical Levels – Nadine Napoli
 in different Climate Zones – Denise M. Cilia
 the impacts of Sulfate Aerosols – James Ciarlo`
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Recent Publications
Aquilina N. J., Ciarlo` J. M. (2011). “Evaluation of the
effect of sulfate aerosols using the Regional Climate
Model PRECIS”. Submitted in Climatic Change.
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Undergraduate Projects 2010-2011
Study of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation in the
Australian region using PRECIS.
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Comparative Study of the Land Surface Models of
PRECIS
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Candy Spiteri
William Healey
Postgraduate Projects
Study
of
Oscillation
Patterns
around
the
Mediterranean Region and their influence on Aerosol
transport using RegCM4.
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James Ciarlo`
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Other Projects
Study of how increased aerosol activity influences
humidity.
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Jason Padovani Ginies & James Ciarlo`
Reproducing Tropical Cyclone Yasi using WRF.
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Norbert Bonnici & Jason Padovani Ginies
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The MCT runs its weather and climate models on
the Computer Cluster Facility, ALBERT at the
University of Malta.
Undergraduate and Postgraduate Research
Projects in Climate Science are offered by the MCT.
The MCT organizes Summer Schools consisting of
a series of lectures and workshops intended for
students who want some experience into climate
research.
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The MCT is highly interested in contributing to
model development within the international
scientific community.
For this purpose physicists, chemists,
programmers, mathematicians, statisticians
and biologists are encouraged to join the MCT.
W: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/climate
FB: Academic Group - Malta Climate Team
E: climate-physics.sci@um.edu.mt