Recidivism Rates - NC DOC Prisoners Released To Mecklenburg
County 2009 - 2011
Overview
This analysis briefly examines the post-release criminal activity (i.e., recidivism1) of
individuals returning to Mecklenburg County following a period of incarceration in a
North Carolina prison. A random sample (n=400) of all prisoners released to the
county between September 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011 was used. During that
period, a total of 3,169 offenders returned to the county. The review extends to
December 31, 2012.
General Observations
Offenders released to Mecklenburg County were predominantly male (94%) and
black (76%). Their average age at admission to DOC was 33; the average age at
discharge, 34.
A majority of the released offenders had a history of substance abuse (60 percent)
and unemployment (53 percent), while 7 percent self-reported a history of mental
health issues.
Criminal History
Eighty percent of offenders had been imprisoned for a felony conviction; the largest
majority (69 percent), of which were for a Class F - I violation. Ten percent were
released from a Class A1 - 3 misdemeanor sentence.
On average, an offender had eight previous convictions and, for sentencing
purposes, was classified by North Carolina as a Level III defendant.
Nearly half of those released had been incarcerated for a probation violation. The
vast majority (87 percent) were under probationary supervision prior to their most
recent incarceration. Half had previously served an active prison sentence. (See
Table 2)
Table 2. History of Criminal Behavior
1
Average number of prior convictions:
Average prior record level:
Average sentence length in months:
% Incarcerated for violating probation:
8
III
52
49%
Current offense class:
Felony - Class F-I
Felony - Class C-E
Misdemeanor – Class A1-3
Post Release Revocations
Other
69%
11%
10%
6%
4%
Had a previous incarceration (twice on average)
Had a previous probationary sentence (three times on average)
50%
87%
An offender is considered to have recidivated if arrested on a new charge following release.
1
Post-Release Arrests2,3
Thirty-five percent of offenders were re-arrested within one year of their release.
The rate of recidivism increased to 47 percent over two years. 4 Half of those rearrested failed within 174 days of their release.
Figure 2. Recidivism Rate
Percent Rearrested
50%
40%
32%
35%
39%
30%
10%
44%
29% State Average
24%
20%
47%
41% 43%
14%
4%
0%
30
90
180 270 360 450 540 630 720
Days
The length of time to an offender’s first post-release arrest was found to be
predictive of their likelihood for multiple arrest events following their release.
Sixty-four percent of offenders who recidivated were arrested more the once in the
two-year period reviewed. The sooner an offender was arrested following release,
the more likely he was to have multiple arrest events. For example, 93 percent of
those arrested within 30 days of their release were arrested again at a later date. 5
(See Figure 3)
Percent with Multiple Arrests
Figure 3. Likelihood of Mutiltiple Arrest Events
100%
93%
80%
80%
76%
55%
60%
40%
38%
20%
0%
1 - 30
31 - 90
91 - 180 181 - 270 271 -360
Days to First Post-Release Arrest
Only arrests occurring in Mecklenburg County are considered.
Based on most serious charge.
4 A 2009 NC Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission study found a first-year recidivism
rate of 29 percent and a two-year rate of 44 percent.
5 This observation is consistent with National Research Council (2007) findings that offenders
are most at risk to reoffend in the first months following release and underscores the
importance of incorporating prisoner re-entry best practices to reduce recidivism.
2
3
2
Focusing on the first post-release arrest, charges were generally distributed among
violent (27 percent), drug- (25 percent), and property-related (21 percent) crimes.
Misdemeanors were the dominant charge class, representing 39 percent of all the
initial arrest events, followed closely by felonies (35 percent). Ten percent of
arrests were the result of a traffic violation. (See Figure 4)
Figure 4. Post-Release Arrest Types
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Violent
27%
Drug
25%
Property
21%
Other
Traffic
25%
17%
10%
3
30%
GEOGRAPHIC RELOCATION
A brief GIS analysis was performed to identify the neighborhoods which offenders
were returning and to better understand the “health” or capacity these
neighborhoods to support the offender.
The results of the analysis are depicted on the map found on page 5. The colors
represent the number of offenders returning to a particular neighborhood. Those
colored red received the greatest number of offenders (between 79 and 138), while
those colored green received the fewest (up to 25).
As evident in the map, prison returns are heavily concentrated in an arc that extends
clockwise from south to east Charlotte. Remarkably, while these neighborhoods
represent slightly more than one-third of the county’s population, they receive
nearly 70 percent of all returning offenders.
According to the Quality of Life Study6, which assesses the social, economic, crime,
and physical characteristics of neighborhoods, 27 percent of those within the arc
were considered “challenged;” that is, they offered below average quality of life
when compared to the rest of Mecklenburg County. County-wide, only 16 percent of
neighborhoods are considered challenged.
Such conditions suggest that a sizeable portion of offenders return to communities
may be poorly equipped to provide the support and resources necessary to
moderate an offender’s criminogenic risk factors, those characteristics which make
criminal activity more likely.
Additional analysis is necessary to better understand the impact of returning
offenders on neighborhoods and the resource needs and strategies necessary to
facilitate their successful return to the community.
6
An annual analysis performed by the City of Charlotte which assesses the social , economic,
crime, and physical characteristics of neighborhoods. The report is found at:
http://charmeck.org/QOL/Pages/default.aspx
4
5