Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement Final Report Prepared for: Canadian Space Agency Prepared by: Goss Gilroy Inc. Management Consultants Suite 900, 150 Metcalfe Street Ottawa, ON K2P 1P1 Tel: (613) 230-5577 Fax: (613) 235-9592 E-mail: ggi@ggi.ca Feb 22, 2010 Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................... iii 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 1.1 2.0 Overview of Methodology ...................................................................... 3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.0 History .................................................................................................. 12 Objectives of the Agreement ................................................................ 17 Key Stakeholders .................................................................................. 20 Organization and Governance Structure .............................................. 22 Canada’s Participation in ESA ............................................................. 26 Previous Reviews and Evaluations ....................................................... 31 Findings .................................................................................................. 36 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5.0 Evaluation Issues .................................................................................... 3 Approach and Methodology ................................................................... 5 Economic Analysis ................................................................................. 9 Limitations ............................................................................................ 10 Background on the Agreement ............................................................ 12 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.0 Scope and Objectives of the Evaluation ................................................. 2 Rationale for the CSA-ESA Agreement ............................................... 36 Design and Delivery Issues .................................................................. 43 Results and Impacts of the CSA-ESA Agreement ............................... 49 Cost Effectiveness and Alternatives ..................................................... 71 Summary of Findings and Conclusions .............................................. 78 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 Rationale and Relevance ...................................................................... 78 Design and Delivery ............................................................................. 79 Results .................................................................................................. 79 Recommendations ................................................................................ 81 Appendix A: Expenditures and Commitments ............................................. 84 Appendix B: Bibliography ............................................................................... 87 Appendix C: Data-Collection Instruments .................................................... 93 GOSS GILROY INC. i Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report CSA/ESA Case Study Template ...................................................................... 94 C.1 CSA & OGD Stakeholders - Interview Guide ........................................... 95 C.2 ESA & Other European Officials - Interview Guide ................................. 99 C.3 Beneficiaries of ESA Contracts – Interview Guide ................................. 101 C.4 ESA Contract Beneficiaries - Follow-up Questionnaire.......................... 105 C.5 Non-Beneficiaries of ESA Contracts - Interview Guide ......................... 110 Appendix D: Roles and Responsibilities of Agreement Stakeholders ....... 114 Appendix E: Evaluation Issues & Matrix .................................................... 118 Appendix F: Canada’s Return-Coefficient Rank, by Area ........................ 125 Appendix G: Economic Impact Analysis ..................................................... 131 Appendix H: Technology and Skills Development...................................... 147 Appendix I : Management Action Plan ....................................................... 152 GOSS GILROY INC. ii Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Executive Summary This Report presents the findings, conclusions and recommendations for the summative evaluation of the 2000-09 Canada/European Space Agency (ESA) Cooperation Agreement (Agreement). This summative evaluation was undertaken for the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) by Goss Gilroy Inc (GGI), Management Consultants, in accordance with the TB policy on program evaluation. The evaluation was carried out under the direction of CSA’s Evaluation Committee during the period from November 2008 to November 2009. The primary role of the evaluation as identified in the CSA Statement of Work (SOW) was to assess: The rationale for programs (funded under the Agreement); The extent to which the programs have been successful in meeting their objectives; The program’s cost-effectiveness compared to alternative means of delivery; and, The program’s relevance to government priorities, with advice and recommendations based on the results of the work. The issues addressed in this summative evaluation respond to the scope and objectives of the evaluation and address the following areas: Rationale and Relevance: the consistency of the Canada/ESA Agreement with the priorities of the Government of Canada, Canada’s Space Program, and the science information needs of the government; Design and Delivery: Canadian companies’ need for assistance in obtaining contracts on ESA programs, and the ability of Canadian companies to benefit from the opportunities presented by the Canada/ESA Agreement; Results: the extent to which the Agreement achieved its primary objectives; and Cost-effectiveness: cost-effectiveness of Agreement compared to other alternative means of delivery. 1. Evaluation Approach The approach to this evaluation builds on the results of the 2004 Formative Evaluation and the RMAF Evaluation Strategy. Consistent with the TB Evaluation Policy1, the evaluation team utilized multiple lines of evidence in reviewing the issues. Data sources used varied by question and included: 1 An administrative and performance data review; Key informant interviews at CSA, ESA and other Canadian government departments; A survey of recipients of ESA contracts; Treasury Board Policy on Evaluation, April 1, 2001. GOSS GILROY INC. iii Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Case studies of selected recipients of ESA contracts; and, A survey of organizations that did not receive ESA contracts. The report is based on information available up to September 30, 2009. The statistical information, collected by CSA and ESA on activities under the Agreement, information provided by Canadian organizations in the survey, and information obtained through the case studies were analyzed in conjunction with Statistics Canada’s recently released National Accounts and its most recent 2006 Input/Output Table (I/O) in order to complete the economic assessment of the 2000-09 Agreement. The following table indicates the number of Canadian company establishments surveyed or interviewed by GGI that were recipients of ESA funds over the period 2000-2008. The table also describes the percent coverage of establishments through the survey, as well as the percentage of ESA funding covered. It should be noted that establishments does not equate to companies, but rather to individual facilities operated by the companies. For example, MDA has multiple establishments, which each operate as different businesses. Sample Coverage (by establishment receiving ESA contracts) Establishments % of Establishments Covered % of ESA Contracts Covered by dollar value Case Study 25 21.2% 80.9% Surveyed 39 33.1% 6.1% Total Covered All establishments receiving ESA contracts Establishments receiving ESA contracts that were out out-of-business and invalid contacts Overall Coverage of establishments receiving ESA contracts that could be contacted 64 54.2% 86.9% 12 10.2% 0.2% 106 60.4% 87.1% Status 118 2. Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement ESA was established in 1975 as an autonomous international organization dedicated to the exploration of space, with funding provided by its member states. The 18 current member states include Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. As well, Hungary, Romania and Poland participate in the Plan for European Cooperating States (PECS). In addition, Estonia and Slovenia have recently signed cooperation agreements with ESA. Canada, which is also classified as a GOSS GILROY INC. iv Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report cooperating state, has had Agreements with ESA since 1979. ESA is headquartered in Paris, with a staff numbering just over 2,000 and an annual budget of about €3.6 billion (or CDN $5.9 billion) in 2009. Canada’s contribution to ESA’s total 2008 income from member and cooperating states was about €20.0 million or 0.83% of the total budget. In that year, Canada contributed 0.77% (or €4.6 million) of the mandatory activities, which was a slightly lower percentage than the 0.85% (or €15.4 million) contributed to the optional programs. The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) is the Canadian government agency responsible for Canada’s space program. It was established in March 1989 by the Canadian Space Agency Act and sanctioned in December 1990. The legislated mandate of the CSA is: “To promote the peaceful use and development of space, to advance the knowledge of space through science and to ensure that space science and technology provide social and economic benefits for Canadians.” Canada’s working relationship with ESA has been in existence since the first cooperation agreement was put in place, covering the period from January 1, 1979 to 1983. This initial agreement, which predated the establishment of the CSA, included the fields of space research and technologies as well as associated space applications. Since then, the agreement has been renewed on three occasions, covering the periods from 1984 to 1988; from 1989 through 1999; and, most recently, from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. The Agreement is a treaty that is formally negotiated between ESA and Canada. The agreement is managed for Canada by the CSA. Notably, Canada is the only non-European country that participates in ESA programs. Generally speaking, the Agreement contributes to maintaining Canada’s world leadership in its traditional niches (e.g., civilian radar technology for Earth observation, and advanced satellite communications services) and enhancing the international competitiveness of the Canadian manufacturing industry through the development of space technologies, innovative advanced systems, and terrestrial applications. The current Agreement differs from the two preceding agreements between CSA and ESA in that it includes a clear obligation (as compared to best efforts) to provide an industrial return to Canada on par with that of ESA Member States in optional programs, and also guarantees Canada the same rights as ESA Member States in optional programs. The CSA Program’s strategic outcomes have likewise changed over the years. According to the Program Activity Architecture (PAA) in its Report on Plans and Priorities (RPP) for 2009-2010, the CSA Program has one strategic outcome, namely, “Canada’s presence in space meets the needs of Canadians for scientific knowledge, space technology and information.” The 2009-2010 PAA notably differs from the Program’s previous PAAs in that it is highly streamlined with respect to strategic outcomes.2 2 By contrast, consider the 2004-2005 RPP, in which there were seven (potentially overlapping) strategic outcomes: economic benefits; technological development and diffusion; understanding of the environment; contribution to the quality of life; worldclass space research; social and educational benefits; and promotion and awareness of the CSP. The 2009-2010 RPP is also streamlined compared to the RPPs from fiscal years 2005, 2006, and 2007, which contained the following three strategic outcomes: knowledge, innovation and economy; sovereignty and security; and environment and sustainable development. GOSS GILROY INC. v Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report The current unique strategic outcome is supported by activity in four main areas/thrusts: earth observation, space science and exploration, satellite communications and generic technological activities. In the most recent RPP, the objectives of the CSA/ESA partnership are highlighted, each corresponding to one of these four areas/thrusts: ESA Programs in earth observation – Objective: “Through key international partnerships, enhance the Canadian industry's technological base and provide access to European market for value-added products and services in the field of earth observation.” ESA Programs in space science and exploration – Objective: “Through key international partnerships, foster the participation of Canadian academia and the demonstration of Canadian space technologies in European space science and exploration missions.” ESA Programs in satellite communications – Objective: “Through key international partnerships, enhance the Canadian industry's technological base and provide access to European market for value-added products and services in the field of satellite communications.” ESA Programs in Generic Space Technologies: “Through key international partnerships, enhance the Canadian industry’s technological base and provide access to the European market for value added products and services in the field of generic space technologies” The Canadian space sector generates revenues close to $2.8 billion of which $399 million were from European sales3 and employs 6,742 people4 in 213 organizations5 across Canada. Significantly, this group includes at least 27 large organizations and 100 SMEs.6,7 While the size of all the players in the industry is unknown, these figures indicate that the Canadian space sector includes a large percentage of SMEs. Also noteworthy is the fact that the sector contains 12 not-for-profits and 32 government organizations. The principles governing Canadian participation in ESA, defined in the 2000-09 Cooperation Agreement, are as follows: Canada, with its cooperating-member status, contributes to the General Budget at 50% of the rate of ESA Member States (based on a GNP scale). Canada contributes to all elements of the General Budget of ESA, except the costs related to the Scientific Program (SP) and the Technical Research Programs (TRP) for which Canada is ineligible. However, Canada is eligible for other contracts made under the General Budget. Canada’s contribution to the General Budget is mandatory for participation in the Optional Programs. Canada’s contributions to Optional Programs are made at Canada’s request, and are subject to the unanimous approval of Member States participating in the Program. In addition, the contributions are subject to adjustments due to inflation, program cost increases, and exchange-rate variation. The single-object development programs, in particular, are subject to a maximum of 20% in cost increases over the initial program contributions. 3 Source: CSA, State of the Canadian Space Sector, 2008. Ibid. 5 Source: CSA website, retrieved May 2009 6 These figures are based on the qualification of organizations with fewer than 200 employees as SMEs. Source: Organization websites. 7 The size of the remaining organizations is unknown. 4 GOSS GILROY INC. vi Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report In March 2000, Treasury Board (TB) approved contributions to ESA of up to $30 million per fiscal year for the duration of the Agreement (1999/00 to 2008/09). These contributions were provided for the General Budget and for Optional Programs in which Canada participated. In 2005, so as to comply with the 2000 Transfer Payment Policy, the CSA sought approval for class terms and conditions governing Canada’s contribution to ESA. The revised terms and conditions included the authority to commit up to a maximum of CDN $200 million to ESA over the last five years of the agreement (i.e. between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2009) and the setting of a CDN $200 million ceiling for the contributions to be paid over that five-year period. In addition, recognizing the multi-year nature of space programs, the CSA was granted the authority to pay contributions to ESA after December 31, 2009 (the end of the Agreement) to honour commitments made prior to the end of the term. Total CSA expenditures and commitments under the Agreement from 2000 to 2018-19 amount to $441.7 million. CSA entered into multi-year commitments and expenditure totalling $217.6 in the first five years under TB’s Program approval of 2000, while expenditures and commitments for the second 5 years, under TB’s Program approval of 2005, amounted to $224.1 million. This leaves $149.4 million in commitments for the 2010 to 2018/19. A year-by-year breakdown of those commitments and expenditures is provided in Appendix A. The budgetary emphasis on earth observation has generally been declining. It fell from 45.8% of the budget in the first five years to 33.6% in the second five years. At 34.4%, As of September 30, 2009, it accounted for a slightly greater share of outstanding commitments. Satellite communications (SC) has declined from 47.4% of expenditures over the first five years to 39.8% in the second five years and now amounts to 28.6% of outstanding commitments. In contrast to the above, there has been a growing emphasis on space exploration (SE), which has increased from 2.3% during the first five years of the Agreement to 23.3% in the last five years, currently accounting for 34.9% of outstanding commitments. . Generic Technological Activities (GTA) make up the remainder of the budget. There have been only minor fluctuations in GTA as a percent of the budget.8. 3. Findings Follow-Up on Past Evaluations Management has followed up on the recommendations from prior evaluations. In each of those areas where management has pursued a course of action, it believes it has accomplished all that was possible. One issue, in particular – achieving the technology transfer objective – is no longer applicable, as the objectives of the 2000 Agreement were reworded to exclude technology transfer in 2005. The evaluation found that previous concerns raised by organizations vis-a-vis a lack of a systematic CSA mechanism for keeping companies apprised of contract opportunities at ESA, and CSA priorities with respect to ESA remain a concern and have not been adequately addressed. The evaluation team realizes that there are limited funds invested by CSA in ESA to accommodate all of the companies that would like to benefit from ESA contracts, given ESA’s formula of matching contacts awarded to dollars 8 CA_01JAN00_31DEC08_TO CANADA 230909 GOSS GILROY INC. vii Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report invested by Canada in its programs. Continuing Relevance of the Canada/ESA Agreement The evaluation team reviewed the continuing relevance of the Agreement and determined that: The needs and conditions that led Canada to enter into the Agreement continue to exist. The study found strong support for continuing the Agreement. Specifically, the rationale for continuing the agreement derives from several factors. Given its relatively small budget, the activities that the Canadian Space Agency can pursue are limited in scope compared to those pursued by ESA. The breadth and depth of technologies under development are considered much greater in ESA programs than what CSA can support in its own programs due to the much greater ESA budgets and the diversity of partners and programs involved in ESA. In addition, recent US regulations (ITAR) have restricted the amount of space-related work originating from NASA and the USA in general. A healthy and expanding Canadian space industry must look beyond North American borders and find opportunities to participate in international missions and programs. Federal organizations such as the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS) and Environment Canada have information needs that are satisfied by technologies developed under the ESA program. The Agreement is consistent with the priorities of the Canadian Government and the CSA. The Agreement supports many science information needs in the areas of Internet access, earth observation, search and rescue, telemedicine, and resource management. Without the Agreement, Canadian companies would, with minor exceptions, not have received contracts from ESA. Certainly not at the level of activity that has been achieved. Canada is participating in the ESA programs in which the Canadian space industry has a competitive advantage. Whether these are the most appropriate programs for Canada in the long term is the subject of some debate. At this point in time, CSA has not finalized a long-term plan for Canada’s involvement in space. Delivery Issues With respect to delivery issues, the evaluation team found that: CSA is not communicating opportunities to Canadian firms as effectively and consistently as it could. At the same time, the Agency must be careful not to create unrealistic expectations, since demand for ESA opportunities exceeds available Canadian funding. The major challenges faced by Canadian firms relate to the relatively small and sometimes uncertain Canadian funding of ESA programs, the complexity and difficulty of the ESA bidding process, and the firms’ distance from Europe. The challenge most often cited from the case studies was the level of funding that Canada contributes to ESA. Given the “pay-to-play” nature of ESA programs, the unavailability of Canadian funds appears to be the most significant obstacle to Canadian industry. Another challenge faced by CSA with respect to program delivery is that created by market fluctuations and their effect on currency values. Specifically, CSA’s contributions to ESA are made in Euros and are therefore subject to exchange-rate variation. GOSS GILROY INC. viii Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Results and Impacts of the Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement The evaluation team found the following with respect to the results and impacts of the CSA Agreement: Contracts awarded to Canada have achieved an overall “return coefficient” of 1.09 according to ESA calculations.9 This exceeds the ESA target of .94. Canada ranks second of all ESA member states in achieving the calculated return coefficient.10 The Canada/ESA Agreement has significantly contributed to the: 1) enhancement of the existing technological/innovation capabilities; and 2) development/demonstration of advanced technologies, systems, components, and tools of the companies and organizations that received ESA contracts, with some firms using the programs to increase their capabilities in areas of core competence and others using the programs to explore new areas. The Canada/ESA Agreement has generated more flight opportunities to space-qualify Canadian technologies or products; for those companies who develop flight hardware, ESA provided flight opportunities. The number of organizations, excluding universities, participating in the Canada/ESA program since January 2005 has increased by 27. There were also 8 new university participants. Penetration of the European space market is premised strongly on being a member of ESA, which is the major contractor in Europe for space-related work. Canada can also work through bilateral agreements; however, it is difficult to assess other options, as the ESA Agreement has been Canada’s main entry into the market. Intelligence gained through CSA participation in ESA is beneficial for CSA and other government departments in terms of keeping the Canadian government informed on the directions that ESA is taking in research and development in space technologies. However, Canadian companies have not all uniformly benefited from the intelligencegathering process regarding trends in the European market conditions. Although a significant number of new space collaborations/initiatives have resulted from work attributed to the Canada/ESA Programs, Canadian firms in the space sector have been unable to capitalize more on the ESA contracts due to the relatively modest CSA contributions to ESA programs. There are no more cost-effective means of developing the technologies/capacity that have been developed through contracts with ESA; however, paperwork and travel costs were noted as making this investment less cost-effective than it could be. Discontinuation of the Agreement would result in the severance of industry ties and the loss of opportunities. Moreover, it would communicate the message that Canada is uninterested in participating in international collaboration in the space arena. The economic impacts of the Canada-ESA Agreement were established based on reported contracts and follow-on sales, i.e. sales that were over and above the ESA contracts and attributable to the technologies and experience gained from the ESA contracts. No extrapolations 9 Source: European Space Agency, Industrial Policy Committee. (April 2009). Geographical Distribution of Contracts, Situation as per 31 December 2008 10 Ibid. GOSS GILROY INC. ix Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report were made for firms that did not provide financial sales information for either the survey or case studies. Since some case study and survey respondents did not provide financial data on follow on sales, follow-on sales and economic impacts are probably underestimated. Information on follow-on sales, including reports of no follow-on sales, covering the entire period 2000-2011 was provided by 58 establishments. The 58 establishments represented 61.6% of the value of ESA contracts for the 2000-2008 period. The vast majority of this information came from 21 establishments covered through the case studies. The 21 establishments represented 56.9% of the value of ESA contracts. An additional 32 establishments responded to the survey representing 4.6% of ESA contracts. Finally five firms were no longer in business. They accounted for 0.1% of ESA contracts Documented follow-on revenues for the period 2000-11 attributable to the ESA contracts for the case study participants and survey respondents amounted to $221.5 million. When added to the value of the ESA contracts 2000-2008 ($177.5 million), Canadian firms have benefited or are expected to benefit from $399.0 million in incremental revenues due to the ESA contracts and follow-on work. This result implies a revenue multiplier of 2.25 for every ESA contract dollar. After accounting for import leakages, the Input/Output analysis estimates direct current dollar GDP impacts at $184 million and total (direct, indirect, and induced) GDP impacts of $367 million yielding a GDP multiplier for direct GDP of 2.0011. Excluding the self-employed, ESA employment impacts included 4,055 full-time equivalent years (FTEs) consisting of 2,056 direct FTEs, 986 indirect FTEs, and a further 1,012 induced FTEs12. The impact on labour force incomes as a result of the ESA contracts to Canadian firms was to increase them by $228.6 million of which $123.9 million was direct, $53.7 million indirect, and $51.0 million was induced. These estimates conform to Treasury Board Guidelines and are very conservative. However, if we had extrapolated the above estimates to cover establishments that did not provide financial data, the estimated direct economic impacts would increase. Indeed, although all ESA contracts were taken into account in those estimates, only 58 establishments which received 61,6% of the ESA contracts (in dollars) provided information on follow-on sales. Additional details on this analysis can be found in Appendix G. 4. Recommendations: Based on our conclusions, the evaluation team recommends the following: 11 Statistic Canada’s induced estimate encompasses only those induced impacts arising from increased consumption out of incremental personal income generated by the direct and indirect impacts. Statistics Canada’s estimates of induced impacts exclude the impacts of any incremental investments arising from personal or government incomes or even consumption from induced personal incomes. As a result, they are very conservative estimates. 12 Self employed are not taken into account by Statistics Canada. GOSS GILROY INC. x Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report RECOMMENDATION 1: CSA should seek renewal of the Agreement for an additional 10-year period. If feasible, additional resources should be allocated to the Agreement either from an increase in the allocation of Government of Canada resources or through a reallocation from other CSA programs. This recommendation is based on the strategic importance of the Agreement at both the political as well as the industrial level. The Agreement permits the Canadian space sector, as well as the Canadian government to maintain a window on technological advances in space, and upcoming programs that could be of interest to Canadian firms. It also provides credibility to Canada that assists it obtaining contracts with NASA and with other international space programs. Finally, CSA expenditures alone cannot ensure the array of program opportunities and linkage to the base of R&D available within ESA. RECOMMENDATION 2: Clarify the role of ESA within the long-term space plan in order to guide industry on Canadian priorities in space, including ESA participation. RECOMMENDATION 3: Develop & publicize a more coherent set of policies & programs for supporting organizations in the sector & developing new entrants. Many of the SMEs that are trying to access contracts from ESA indicated a lack of information on CSA’s policies and priorities with respect to ESA programs. They also are not always aware of what funding is available for the different program areas supported by CSA. RECOMMENDATION 4: Develop a coherent plan for communicating targeted ESA industrial opportunities. The newsletter on Earth Observation opportunities and developments could serve as a starting point for development of an appropriate communication format. RECOMMENDATION 5: Continue to monitor the impacts, if any, of the 2007 European Space Policy and EU trends on Canada, and, if necessary, take steps to mitigate any adverse effects. CSA along with DFAIT should also undertake a policy review of Canada’s role in ESA, given the changes occurring in Europe as a result of the 2007 European Space Policy. A review of the EU Space Policy (2007) and trends in Europe with respect to the EU indicates a growing linkage of ESA with EU long-term plans and strategies. This poses a potential threat to Canada as a non-EU member. Although the limited interviews with ESA representatives indicated that there is no immediate concern that Canada may be excluded, the gradual increase in the number of ESA members and the declining importance of the GOSS GILROY INC. xi Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Canadian contribution both financially and technically could lead to Canada being marginalized at some point in the future. This could have a negative impact on Canada’s ability to participate in ESA, and the extent to which Canada can participate in the downstream implementation of the prototypes and developments funded under ESA, but which are implemented through other more commercially oriented European agencies. Monitoring these developments will be an important component of CSA’s representation in Europe. GOSS GILROY INC. xii Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Acronyms ADM AFC ARTES CCRS CMS CO2 CO2eq CRC CSA CSP DFAIT DND EC EGNOS EO EOEP ERC ESA ESOC ESP FTE GaN GDP GMES GNP GPS GTA GSTP HQP IC I/O IP IPC IRC ISS ITAR NASA NEST Atmospheric Dynamics Mission Administrative and Finance Committee Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems Natural Resources’ Canada Centre for Remote Sensing Environment Canada’s Canadian Meteorological Service Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide Equivalence Industry Canada’s Communications Research Centre Canadian Space Agency Canadian Space Program Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Department of National Defense European Commission European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service Earth Observation Earth Observation Exploratory Program Expenditure Review Committee European Space Agency European Space Operation Centre European Space Policy Full Time Equivalent Gallium Nitride Gross Domestic Product Global Monitoring for Environment and Security Gross National Product Global Positioning System Generic Technological Activities General Support Technology Program Highly Qualified Personnel Industry Canada Statistics Canada’s 2005 Input Output Table Intellectual Property Industrial Policy Committee International Relations Committee International Space Station Traffic in Arms Regulations National Aeronautics and Space Administration Nest ESA Toolbox GOSS GILROY INC. xiii Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report NRCan OH PAA PAS PRAB R&D RBAF RMAF RPP ROI SAR SC SCA SDR SDRRCS SE SM SMOS SP SPC TB TRP Natural Resources Canada Overhead Program Activity Architecture Program Approval Submission Program Review Advisory Board Research and Development Risk-Based Audit Framework Results-Based Management and Accountability Framework Report on Plans and Priorities Return on Investment Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellite Communications Software Communications Core Architecture Software Defined Radio Software Defined Radio Regenerative Communications Satellite System Space Exploration Soil Moisture Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Scientific Program Science Program Committee Treasury Board Technological Research Programs GOSS GILROY INC. xiv 1.0 Introduction This Report presents the findings, conclusions and recommendations for the Summative Evaluation of the 2000-09 Canada/European Space Agency (ESA) Cooperation Agreement (Agreement). This Summative Evaluation was undertaken for the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) by Goss Gilroy Inc. management consultants, in accordance with the TB policy on program evaluation. The evaluation was carried out under the direction of CSA’s Evaluation Committee during the period from November 2008 to November 2009. The report is organized as follows: Section 1.0 – outlines the report and objectives; Section 2.0 – presents our evaluation approach and methodology; Section 3.0 – contains a profile of the CSA-ESA Agreement Section 4.0 – provides our key findings; and Section 5.0 – outlines our conclusions and recommendations. Appendix A – provides the CSA’s expenditures and commitments from 2000 – 2008; Appendix B – lists the documents reviewed in the evaluation; Appendix C – provides the data-collection instruments; Appendix D – provides the roles and responsibilities of Agreement stakeholders; Appendix E – provides a list of evaluation issues; Appendix F – provides charts indicating Canada’s rank with regards to return coefficient, by area; Appendix G – is an economic impact analysis covering direct impact on ESA contractors, indirect impacts of their supply chains and induced impacts arising from consumer expenditures based on incremental earned incomes; Appendix H – highlights the Agreement’s contribution to Canadian technology and skills development; and, GOSS GILROY INC. 1 1.1 Scope and Objectives of the Evaluation The primary role of the evaluation as identified in the CSA Statement of Work (SOW) was to assess: The rationale of programs (funded under the Agreement); The extent to which the programs have been successful in meeting their objectives; The programs cost-effectiveness compared to alternative means of delivery; and, The programs relevance to government priorities, with advice and recommendations based on the results of the work. In addition to the above areas of rationale/relevance, performance and costeffectiveness, the SOW requested that the evaluation also address issues not identified in the Agreement’s Results-Based Management and Accountability Framework (RMAF), such as: The impact of the change in the European space environment with the endorsement of the European Space Policy (ESP) in May 2007; An examination of the expenditures made under the Agreement in the context of the criteria used by the Federal Government’s Expenditure Review Committee; and The extent to which the recommendations in the 2004 Formative Evaluation Report have been implemented. GOSS GILROY INC. 2 2.0 Overview of Methodology This Section describes the evaluation questions, approach and methodology, economic analysis and limitations to the methodology employed in the summative evaluation. 2.1 Evaluation Issues 2.1.1 Development of Evaluation Issues and Questions As requested in the SOW, the issues and questions used in the evaluation were developed based on the RMAF Evaluation Strategy, and supplemented where appropriate with the criteria used by the Federal Government’s Expenditure Review Committee (ERC), and recommendations provided in the 2004 Formative Evaluation. The following describes the approach used in the development of the issues and questions. RMAF Evaluation Strategy The consulting team carefully reviewed the issues in the RMAF Evaluation Strategy to consolidate and streamline them for use in data collection. The original 76 issues were too numerous to be implemented effectively in an evaluation, and similar issues were grouped to reduce the total number – i.e., the issues were either retained or became an indicator within one of the grouped issues. In some cases, and for some stakeholder groups, the original questions were used as probes in eliciting information on the revised set of evaluation issues. Expenditure Review Committee (ERC) Criteria As requested in the Statement of Work, the consultant team also examined the criteria used by the Federal Government’s Expenditure Review Committee (ERC) to assess existing programs and government spending. These criteria yielded the following questions which were incorporated into the evaluation issues and questions: GOSS GILROY INC. 3 Public Interest – Does the program area continue to serve the public interest? Role of Government – Is there a legitimate and necessary role for government in this program area or activity? Federalism – Is the current role of the federal government appropriate, or is the program a candidate for realignment with the provinces? Partnership – What activities or programs should or could be transferred in whole or in part to the private/voluntary sector? Value-for-money – Are Canadians getting value for their tax dollars? Efficiency – If the program or activity continues, how could its efficiency be improved? Affordability – Is the resultant package of programs and activities affordable? If not, what programs or activities would be abandoned? Endorsement of the European Space Policy (ESP) The evaluation questions were designed to include an assessment of the change in the European space environment with the endorsement of the European Space Policy (ESP) in May 2007. Previous Evaluation Reports Previous evaluation reports, in particular the 2004 Formative Evaluation Report, were reviewed in terms of the issues identified, recommendations made and management’s response to the recommendations (see Section 3.6), to take them into consideration, where appropriate, in developing the questions for this evaluation. In addition, the methodology used in this evaluation took account of those used in previous evaluations to facilitate comparison of quantitative results to the extent possible. 2.1.2 Overview of Evaluation Questions The issues addressed in this summative evaluation responded to the scope and objectives of the evaluation given in Section 1.1, and addressed the following areas: GOSS GILROY INC. 4 Rationale and Relevance - the consistency of the Canada/ESA Agreement with the priorities of the Government of Canada, Canada's Space Program, and the science information needs of the government. Design and Delivery - Canadian companies’ need for assistance in obtaining contracts on ESA programs, and the ability of Canadian companies to benefit from the opportunities presented by the Canada/ESA Agreement; Results - the extent to which the Agreement achieved its primary objectives, namely: Increased staff among Canadian companies that received ESA contracts; Enhanced existing technological and innovation capabilities of the companies that received ESA contracts; Advanced technologies, systems, components, and tools; Increased flight opportunities; Increased business opportunities for Canadian companies; Increased competitiveness of Canadian companies; Diversified international space partnerships for Canadian companies; and Increased/improved intelligence on European space-related policies, programs and markets. Cost-effectiveness - cost-effectiveness of the Agreement compared to other alternative means of delivery. 2.2 Approach and Methodology The approach to this evaluation built on the results of the 2004 Formative Evaluation, and the RMAF Evaluation Strategy. Consistent with the TB Evaluation Policy13, the consultant team utilized a multiple lines of evidence approach in reviewing the issues. The data sources used varied by question and included: 13 Treasury Board Policy on Evaluation, April 1, 2001. GOSS GILROY INC. 5 A document review; An administrative and performance data review; Key informant interviews with Canadian government and ESA officials; A survey of recipients of ESA contracts; Case studies of selected recipients of ESA contracts; and, A survey of organizations that did not receive ESA contracts. Document Review A total of 48 documents formally transmitted by CSA (6 financial and 42 other documents) were reviewed in this evaluation. A complete list of documents consulted is included in Appendix B. Various websites were also consulted in the course of the work. Key Informant Interviews with Canadian Government and ESA Officials A total of 32 key informants were interviewed for this evaluation (some were interviewed in groups). Exhibit 2.1 below lists the organizations and the number of corresponding key informants for each organization. Exhibit 2.1: Numbers of Interviewees by Organization Organization Number of Interviewees CSA 16 CSA/ DFAIT Europe 1 ODG (CRC, DFAIT, IC, NRCAN) 9 ESA 5 EU 1 Total Number of Interviewees Total= 32 GOSS GILROY INC. 6 Case studies of Organizations that Benefited from the Agreement A group of 32 organizations14 that benefitted from the ESA contracts were initially identified as candidates for case studies. A final selection of 25 organizations was made, taking account of corporate re-structuring, mergers and acquisitions. Of these 25 interviews, one case study could not be completed, leading to information gaps in this one case. The case study organizations included the larger participants in ESA contracts, as well as those ESA contracts, which CSA considered to have yielded good results. To the extent possible, case studies also spanned the program areas funded by the Agreement and geographic regions across Canada. Case studies provided in-depth information about key evaluation issues. Case study organizations did not participate in the survey. The case study instruments are provided in Appendix C. Survey of Organizations that Benefited from the Agreement A telephone survey was employed to acquire information from all organizations that had benefitted from ESA contracts since 2000 that had NOT been selected for case studies. In aggregate, 39 organizations responded to the phone survey. In addition, 1 respondent to the survey of organizations that had not received ESA contracts indicated they had received ESA contracts through the agreement, during the time frame covered by the evaluation and were thus added to the recipient survey. Survey respondents included private firms or institutions such as NGOs and universities. Non-respondents generally resulted from invalid contact information; refusal by the targeted person to participate in the survey; or the targeted person could not be reached by phone. The organizations surveyed were asked to respond to a series of evaluation questions similar to those answered by case study organizations, after which they were requested to provide additional economic benefit information (e.g., information on sales, employment, follow-on joint ventures, new products, etc) through a follow-up email approach. The survey instruments are provided in Appendix C. 14 In a few cases, where an organization had multiple locales (establishments), case studies were done at each locale. GOSS GILROY INC. 7 Exhibit 2.2 indicates the sample coverage by numbers of establishments and by the percentage of ESA funding. The effort in the case studies was concentrated among the large recipients as well as organizations CSA considered to have yielded sufficiently good results to be able to give detailed information success factors. Since case studies covered organizations awarded some of the biggest contracts, the dollar value of ESA contracts awarded to survey recipients is proportionately smaller than that awarded to case study organizations. Exhibit 2.2: Sample Coverage (by establishment receiving ESA contracts) Establishments % of Establishments Covered % of ESA Contracts Covered by dollar value Case Study 25 21.2% 80.9% Surveyed 39 33.1% 6.1% Total Covered All establishments receiving ESA contracts establishments receiving ESA contracts that were out out-of-business and invalid contacts Overall Coverage of establishments receiving ESA i.e., valid contacts 64 54.2% 86.9% 12 10.2% 0.2% 106 60.4% 87.1% Status 118 Survey of Organizations that Did Not Benefit from the Agreement A telephone survey was also undertaken with 19 organizations that did not receive ESA contracts during the time period of the current Agreement. This survey focused on awareness and delivery issues, aiming to solicit responses concerning why the organizations had been unsuccessful in securing ESA contracts. The survey instrument is provided in Appendix C. GOSS GILROY INC. 8 2.3 Economic Analysis Statistical information collected by ESA on activity under the Agreement and information collected in the survey and case studies from the Canadian organizations that benefited from ESA contracts were analyzed in conjunction with the Statistics Canada’s recently released National Accounts15 and the 2006 Input Output Table (I/O)16 in order to provide an assessment of the economic impacts of the 2000-09 Agreement. The economic analysis proceeded in two steps. The first step required summing the revenues derived directly from ESA contracts to Canadian firms over the period 20002008 and revenues from follow-on sales for the period 2000-2011 derived directly from the ESA contracts as reported/estimated by the case study firms and the firms responding to the questionnaires. Step 2 involved taking the total ESA contracts and follow-on sales as an input to the national Input/Output analysis. The Input/Output analysis allowed us to estimate the direct, indirect and induced impacts on GDP, tax revenues and employment of the ESA contracts and follow on sales for the entire period, not annually. This approach is considered to be conservative, as, although it accounts for all ESA contracts to Canadian firms, it does not take into account additional follow-on sales revenues, where explicit information was not provided. To use the Input/Output structure, the ESA contracts to Canadian firms and follow-on revenues had to be assigned to a particular industry classification using the North American Industry Classification (NAICs) codes based on their listings in Industry Canada’s business directory. The model was then run at the most feasible detailed industry level in order to derive the direct impacts (of ESA contracts and follow on revenues) on economic output and employment for the firms benefitting directly from the contracts, and the indirect impacts on economic output and employment of firms that benefited through the supply chain (vendors to ESA contracted firms). The induced impacts are based on expenditures of disposable income earned by direct employment and indirect employment. Statistics Canada excludes any expenditure 15 Statistics Canada, National Income and Expenditure Accounts: Data tables, catalogue number 13-019-X. June 1, 2009. Statistics Canada I/O tables were run at the larger industry detail by industry to establish supply chain relationships by assigning NAICS codes to all establishments in the ESA file from Strategis, Industry Canada’s file on firms. The induced impacts are weighted across the years of expenditures from 2000 to 2011 based on annual expenditure patterns from the National Accounts with extrapolated shares for 2009-2011. 16 GOSS GILROY INC. 9 impacts from induced employment. This process derives conservative multipliers for the national impacts of ESA contracts and follow-on sales. 2.4 Limitations The evaluation results are subject to the following types of limitations: The number of non-responses; Survey respondent self-selection, and, Limitations in access to ESA representatives for interviews Number of Non-Responses Although the methodology employed for the telephone survey of contract recipient firms usually results in a higher response rate than other approaches (e.g. web surveys), GGI was able to reach only 54.2% of the contract recipient firms in the population. Further, some respondents did not have answers to certain survey questions because contracts had been awarded quite a number of years previously and in some cases there had been staff turnover. Data on future employment and followon sales was estimated by some respondents. Some respondents refused to provide data on follow-on sales or employment for confidentiality reasons. Respondent Self-Selection Bias Since some firms chose not to participate in the survey, only a sample of contracted firms answered the questions. Non-participants tended to be smaller firms, firms with fewer contracts, firms whose contracts had been awarded further in the past, and/or firms with negative experiences with ESA17. These factors are an important consideration in the analysis and in drawing generalizations from the survey results. Limited Access to ESA Key Informants Although a visit to ESA offices in Europe was planned in the evaluation workplan, the GGI team could not visit ESA offices and interviews with ESA representatives were restricted to interviews with representatives who travelled to Canada on other 17 While this statement is generally true, lack of responses by several large firms to questions on revenues meant that those that did respond were reasonably representative of the industry. GOSS GILROY INC. 10 matters. For these reasons, GGI had to rely on documents from ESA without an opportunity to discuss their interpretation and validity. This constraint also impacted the understanding of changes in the European Space Policy. GOSS GILROY INC. 11 3.0 Background on the Agreement The following section provides background on the Agreement, including a brief history of ESA, CSA, and the Canada-ESA Cooperation Agreement. In addition, it provides the objectives of the Agreement, describes Canada’s funding contributions to ESA, and discusses previous reviews and evaluations. 3.1 History 3.1.1 ESA and the European Union (EU) ESA was established in 1975 as an autonomous international organization dedicated to the exploration of space with funding provided by its member states. The 18 current member states include Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. As well, Hungary, Romania and Poland participate in the Plan for European Cooperating States (PECS). In addition, Estonia and Slovenia have recently signed cooperation agreements with ESA. Canada, which is also classified as a cooperating state, has had Agreements with ESA since 1979. ESA is headquartered in Paris, with a staff numbering just over 2,000 and an annual budget of about €3.6 billion (or CDN $5.9 billion18) in 2009.19 The breakdown of ESA’s 2009 budget by program areas is as follows: 18 19 Exchange rate is $1.65 per Euro (€), as of January 15, 2009. Source: ESA website GOSS GILROY INC. 12 Exhibit 3.1: Budget by Program Areas (2009) (Euros in 000’s) Financed by third parties € 47,641 Technology € 112,855 Space Situational Awareness € 9,000 Launchers € 659,103 European Cooperating States Agreement € 3,206 6.7% 6.3% 12.1% 18.4% General Budget € 239,749 Associated to General Budget € 196,760 Science € 434,449 Exploration € 115,505 Human Spaceflight € 386,958 10.8% 16.3% 10.8% Microgravity € 93,696 Navigation € 387,249 8.9% Earth Observation € 586,151 Telecom € 319,459 Source: ESA website (retrieved May 28, 2009) In terms of the contributions made by member and cooperating states, the following exhibit shows their percentage contributions to ESA’s Mandatory activities (i.e., ESA’s general budget and scientific program) and Optional Programs in 2008: GOSS GILROY INC. 13 Exhibit 3.2: 2008 Contributions to ESA Programs by ESA Member Countries (€ in 000’s) % of Total Mandatory 15.50% Optional Programs € 462,781 % of Total Optional 25.51% Total Contributions € 556,491 % of Grand Total* 23.01% France Mandatory Programs € 93,710 Germany € 132,101 21.86% € 401,369 22.12% € 533,470 22.06% Italy € 77,689 12.85% € 265,357 14.63% € 343,046 14.18% UK € 107,011 17.71% € 157,889 8.70% € 264,900 10.95% Spain € 44,316 7.33% € 108,515 5.98% € 152,831 6.32% Belgium € 16,566 2.74% € 121,835 6.72% € 138,401 5.72% Netherlands € 27,085 4.48% € 70,941 3.91% € 98,026 4.05% Switzerland € 20,677 3.42% € 66,459 3.66% € 87,136 3.60% Sweden € 15,598 2.58% € 39,080 2.15% € 54,678 2.26% Norway € 12,454 2.06% € 31,505 1.74% € 43,959 1.82% Austria € 13,543 2.24% € 19,257 1.06% € 32,800 1.36% Denmark € 10,641 1.76% € 13,277 0.73% € 23,918 0.99% Canada € 4,638 0.77% € 15,362 0.85% € 20,000 0.83% Portugal € 7,255 1.20% € 9,405 0.52% € 16,660 0.69% Finland € 8,464 1.40% € 7,936 0.44% € 16,400 0.68% Ireland € 6,711 1.11% € 6,589 0.36% € 13,300 0.55% Greece € 5,249 0.87% € 6,151 0.34% € 11,400 0.47% Luxemburg € 693 0.11% € 10,407 0.57% € 11,100 0.46% Totals € 604,401 100% € 1,814,115 100% € 2,418,516 100% Source: Hulsroj, Peter. January 2009. Participation in ESA programmes. Eurisy Conference. Budapest. Note: Due to rounding, column percentages may not add up to totals shown. *Grand total of contributions made by member states and Canada From the above exhibit, Canada’s contribution to ESA in 2008 was €20.0 million or 0.83% of the ESA budget. Canada contributed 0.77% (or €4.6 million) of the Mandatory Programs, and 0.85% (or €15.4 million) to the Optional Programs. Within the mandatory program, Canada contributes to neither the Scientific Program nor Technology Research Programs (TRP) of the General Budget. The main contributors to the ESA budget were France, Germany, Italy, UK, and Spain. Combined they accounted for the majority (76.5%) of ESA’s total 2008 income of €2.4 billion. GOSS GILROY INC. 14 Europe’s Space Policy Environment - In recent years, Europe’s space policy environment has evolved considerably with the development of a European Space Policy (ESP) under the aegis of the European Commission. Twenty-nine European countries unveiled a new space policy on 22 May 2007, unifying the approach of the European Space Agency with those of the individual European Union member states. The European Space Policy has for the first time created a common political framework for space activities in Europe. Jointly drafted by the European Commission and ESA’s Director General, Jean-Jacques Dordain, the European Space Policy sets out a basic vision and strategy for the space sector. It tackles issues such as security and defense, access to space, and exploration20. The goals of the ESP were to develop and exploit space applications to serve Europe’s public policy objectives and the needs of European enterprises and citizens; to meet Europe’s security and defence needs in regards to space; to ensure a strong and competitive space industry; to contribute to the knowledge-based society by investing in space-based science; and to secure unrestricted access to new and critical technologies. The goal of the ESP is to bring all EU and ESA space activities and all European member states’ national space programs under a consistent policy framework, with the aim of ultimately allowing member states to improve European coordination and ensuring that Europe’s investment in space is as efficient and effective as possible. Adopted by the 'Space Council’ of ESA and by EU ministers, the approach is intended to equip Europe for space study and exploration, prepare it for new challenges and bring a new dimension to the EU's external relations. Through the ESP, the EU, ESA and its Member States all commit to increasing coordination of their activities and programs and their respective roles relating to space. ESA will continue with its development of space technologies and systems, and with its support of innovation and global competitiveness, while the EC promotes the exploitation of these technologies (i.e., Galileo and GMES) to achieve European policy priorities. As Canada is not part of the EC, Canada may have difficulty benefitting from the commercialization of the technologies developed by ESA. These developments are of particular interest to Canada, due to Canada’s established long-term strategic relationship with ESA, and the impact that the implementation of ESP may have on Canada’s future involvement. 20 ESA Website July 2009 GOSS GILROY INC. 15 In November 2008, the Draft ESA ten-year Long-Term Plan (LTP) for the years 20092018 was presented to the ESA’s Ministerial Council. The LTP covers the ESA’s long-term strategic objectives and priorities, as well as the corresponding financial plan for a ten-year period. The LTP noted that governmental spending for space programmes at a global level in 2006 amounted to about $61 billion (of which Canada, at $355M, contributed only 0.2% of the total). Some of the long-term strategies include an enhanced, highly competitive European Space Program, with financing schemes easing accession of new member states and cooperation with third parties, especially the EU. This will lead to increased coordination between ESA, the European community and national activities within the frame of the ESP, as well as synergies with the security and defense actors. Some of the key long-term goals of ESA is to become an Agency of the EU by 2014, as well as to increase the number of ESA member states to 22 or more by 2011 (in conjunction with new nations joining the European Union), and associate both existing and new members to ESA programs and activities. Another key goal is to increase funding of ESA by not only increasing contributions by current EU member states but also receiving funding from new EU members. These new goals as elaborated by ESA raise important questions regarding the continuing role for Canada within the framework of the Agreement. With the ESA becoming a quasi-agency of the EU, questions could be raised about Canada’s participation within the ESA, as it is possible that only EU member states would be able to participate in ESA activities. In addition to this, with the proposed increased funding of ESA as well as the addition of new member states as a result of increasing membership in the EU, questions could be raised due to the fact that Canada’s contribution may continue to decline as percent of the total budget. Canada could possibly become an increasingly marginalized player, which may lead some within the European sphere to question Canada’s continued participation within the Agreement and the framework of the ESA as a whole. From this perspective CSA in concert with DFAIT should undertake a policy review to assess the best scenario for Canada to maintain a position with ESA. GOSS GILROY INC. 16 3.1.2 Canada’s Involvement with ESA CSA is the Canadian government agency responsible for Canada's space program. It was established in March 1989 by the Canadian Space Agency Act and sanctioned in December 1990. The legislated mandate of the CSA is: “To promote the peaceful use and development of space, to advance the knowledge of space through science and to ensure that space science and technology provide social and economic benefits for Canadians.” The CSA is achieving this mandate in cooperation with other government departments/agencies, industries, and universities, as well as with international partners. In addition to delivering its own programs, the CSA is responsible for coordinating all federal civil space-related policies and programs pertaining to science and technology (S&T) research, industrial development, and international cooperation. Canada’s working relationship with ESA has been in existence since the first cooperation agreement was put in place, covering the period from January 1, 1979 to 1983. This initial agreement, which predated the establishment of the CSA, included the fields of space research and technologies as well as associated space applications. Since then, the agreement has been renewed on three occasions, covering the periods from 1984 to 1988; from 1989 through 1999; and, most recently, from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. The Agreement is a treaty that is formally negotiated between ESA and Canada. The agreement is managed for Canada by the CSA. Notably, Canada is one of four countries with a cooperating-member status, and the only non-European country that participates in ESA programs. 3.2 Objectives of the Agreement Generally speaking, the Agreement contributes to maintaining Canada’s world leadership in its traditional niches (e.g., civilian radar technology for earth observation, and advanced satellite communications services) and enhancing the international competitiveness of the Canadian manufacturing industry through the development of space technologies, innovative advanced systems, and terrestrial applications. The programs funded under the Agreement contribute to CSA’s GOSS GILROY INC. 17 strategic outcome: meeting the needs of Canadians for scientific knowledge, space technology and information. The objectives of Canadian cooperation with ESA were aimed at achieving policy, programming and industrial development objectives, as follows: 1. To diversify Canada's international space partnerships by fostering close collaboration with Europe, complementing its long-standing priority relationship with the United States. 2. To support the implementation of the Canadian Space Program (CSP) in the areas of satellite communications, satellite navigation & positioning, earth observation and space exploration by participating in ESA optional programs yielding important programmatic benefits, including flight opportunities for Canadian technologies. 3. To sustain the competitiveness of the Canadian space sector (including industry, universities and not-for-profit organizations) through the development of leading edge technologies and products for global markets. 4. To position Canadian space companies (including Not-for-Profit Organizations) with large European prime contractors and key sub-contractors. 5. To facilitate strategic alliances between Canadian and European companies and thereby, create opportunities for Canadian industry in the European markets. 6. To obtain strategic information about emerging European technologies and encourage the dissemination of knowledge between Canadian and European stakeholders. One objective, regarding the technology transfer between Canadian and European companies was removed in 2005 due to the lack of reported technology transfer in the 1997 and 2004 evaluations. A second revision to the previous objectives concerned not-for-profit organizations and universities, which, along with industry, were made eligible for ESA contracts, as per the recommendation of the 2004 Formative Evaluation. The current Agreement differs from the two preceding agreements between CSA and GOSS GILROY INC. 18 ESA in that it includes a clear obligation (as compared to best efforts) to provide an industrial return to Canada on par with that of ESA Member States in optional programs, and also guarantees Canada the same rights as ESA Member States in optional programs. The CSA Program’s strategic outcomes have likewise changed over the years. In its Report on Plans and Priorities (RPP) for 2009-2010, the CSA Program has one strategic outcome, namely, “Canada’s presence in space meets the needs of Canadians for scientific knowledge, space technology and information.” The 2009-2010 PAA notably differs from the Program’s previous PAAs in that it is highly streamlined with respect to strategic outcomes. By contrast, in the 2004-2005 RPP, there were seven (potentially overlapping) strategic outcomes: Economic benefits; Technological development and diffusion; Understanding of the environment; Contribution to the quality of life; World-class space research; Social and educational benefits; and, Promotion and awareness of the CSP. The 2009-2010 RPP is also streamlined compared to the RPPs from fiscal years 2005, 2006 and 2007, which contained the following three strategic outcomes: 1) knowledge, innovation and economy; 2) sovereignty and security; and 3) environment and sustainable development. The current unique strategic outcome is supported by activity in four main areas/thrusts: earth observation, space science and exploration, satellite communications and generic technological activities. In the most recent RPP, four objectives of the CSA/ESA partnership are highlighted, each corresponding to one of these areas/thrusts: ESA Programs in earth observation – Objective: “Through key international partnerships, enhance the Canadian industry's technological base and provide access to European market for value-added products and services in the field of GOSS GILROY INC. 19 3.3 earth observation.” ESA Programs in space science and exploration – Objective: “Through key international partnerships, foster the participation of Canadian academia and the demonstration of Canadian space technologies in European space science and exploration missions.” ESA Programs in satellite communications – Objective: “Through key international partnerships, enhance the Canadian industry's technological base and provide access to European market for value-added products and services in the field of satellite communications.” ESA Programs in Generic Space Technologies: “Through key international partnerships, enhance the Canadian industry’s technological base and provide access to the European market for value added products and services in the field of generic space technologies.” Key Stakeholders The key stakeholders in the Agreement are grouped as: ESA Institutions, Canadian Space Agency (CSA), Canadian Industry and Research Organizations, and Canadian Government Departments. 3.3.1 ESA Institutions Within ESA, the following institutions are the most relevant to the Agreement. ESA Council - is composed of representatives of the Member States and is the ESA governing body. The ESA Council meets either at the ministerial or the official levels, as required. Reporting to the Council are Working Groups, Plenary Subordinate Bodies, Program Boards and the chief executive officer of the Agency. Currently there are four Subordinates Bodies in operation: the Science Program Committee (SPC), the Administrative and Finance Committee (AFC), the Industrial Policy Committee (IPC), and the International Relations Committee (IRC). Program Boards - are entrusted with the responsibility of monitoring Optional Programs making up a space area (“thrust”, in CSA terminology). The Program Boards are composed of Member States participating in the optional programs. There are currently six Program Boards: Earth Observation, Satellite Communications, GOSS GILROY INC. 20 Navigation, Human Space Flight, Microgravity and Exploration, as well as Launcher and Space Situational Awareness. ESA Director General and Staff - the Council appoints a Director General, who is the chief executive officer responsible for the management of the Agency, the implementation of its policies and programs in accordance with the directives issued by the Council. Scientific, technical and administrative staff assists the Director General. The Council, based on recommendations of the Director General, appoints senior management staff; the Director General appoints other staff members. All staff is appointed on the basis of their qualifications, taking into account an adequate distribution of posts among nationalities of the Member States. 3.3.2 Canadian Space Agency (CSA) The Agreement is designed to be a significant vehicle for the CSA to achieve its strategic goals. CSA also administers the Agreement on behalf of Canada. 3.3.3 Canadian Industry & Research Organizations Canada’s space industry consisted of 213 organizations across Canada in 2009 (Source: CSA website, May 2009). Significantly, this group includes at least 27 large organizations and 100 SMEs.21,22 The 213 organizations in the sector also include at least 12 not-for-profits and 32 government organizations. According to the most recent State of the Canadian Space Sector report (2008), the Canadian space sector generates revenues of close to $2.8 billion and employs over 6,742 persons. 3.3.4 Canadian Government Departments Canadian government department stakeholders involved in the Agreement are: Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) – DFAIT has ultimate responsibility for all treaties with foreign countries and organizations and holds 21 These figures are based on the qualification of organizations with fewer than 200 employees as SMEs. Source: Organization websites. 22 The size of the remaining organizations is unknown. GOSS GILROY INC. 21 authority on negotiations, which it may delegate to the CSA as the managing government agency for the Agreement. Arrangements governing Canada’s participation in ESA optional programs may be concluded by the CSA, subject to internal approval processes. Industry Canada (Communications Research Centre – CRC) – Industry Canada (IC) provides input into activities at CSA as well as policy development as it pertains to the space sector. IC has also contributed directly and indirectly to ESA contracts through the CRC. IC has representation, with CSA, on ESA Satellite Communications and Navigation Programme Boards. Natural Resources (Canada Centre for Remote Sensing – CCRS) – Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) provides the European Space Operation Centre (ESOC) with GPS data from Canadian tracking stations. ESOC uses this data for orbit calculations of the GPS system. Besides this relationship, there is also an agreement between CSA and NRCan that allows ESA data to be shared with CCRS (e.g., data from the USA as well as from European missions, including ENVISAT, ERS, and RADARSAT 1 & 2) and results in some funding flowing from ESA to CCRS for contracts. CCRS has representation, with CSA, on the ESA Earth Observation Programme Board. Environment Canada (EC) – EC, similar to NRCan, is a key participant in Canadian EO programs and also benefits from the data and expertise stemming from ESA initiatives, both directly and indirectly through its involvement in the international network of environment stakeholders. EC is a participating department in the RADARSAT program, Canada’s Earth Observation (EO) satellite. In coordination with Transport Canada, National Defense and Fisheries and Oceans, EC’s Canadian Ice Service implemented the Integrated Satellite Tracking for Polluters initiative using RADARSAT data to monitor targeted areas. Additionally, EC’s Quebec Water Quality Monitoring Section has used information from EO satellites to monitor changes in land use in the St. Lawrence Valley and the Great Lakes watershed. 3.4 Organization and Governance Structure 3.4.1 The ESA - CSA Agreement Governance Model The principles governing Canadian participation in ESA, defined in the 2000-09 Cooperation Agreement, are as follows: GOSS GILROY INC. 22 Canada, with its cooperating-member status, contributes to the General Budget at 50% of the rate of ESA Member States (based on a GNP scale). Canada is not eligible for the Technical Research Programs (TRP) but is eligible for the scientific program, however it chooses not to participate. Canada contributes to all elements of the General Budget of ESA, excepting the Scientific Program (SP) and the Technical Research Programs (TRP). Canada’s contribution to the General Budget is mandatory for participation in the Optional Programs. Canada’s participation in and contribution to Optional Programs are made at Canada’s request, but are subject to the unanimous approval of Member States participating in the Program. In addition, the contributions are subject to adjustments due to inflation; program cost increases, and exchange-rate variation. The single-object development programs, in particular, are subject to a maximum of 20% in cost increases over the initial program contributions. The entire procurement process (i.e., planning and preparation of invitations to tender, release of invitations to tender; reception, evaluation and selection of proposals; award of contracts; and debriefing to unsuccessful bidders) continues to be managed by ESA. The CSA role is to position Canadian industries favorably with ESA, such as monitoring ESA opportunities for Canadian industries, and marketing Canadian capabilities to ESA. In some programs, such as the GSTP and some ARTES programs, ESA will consult the Canadian delegation before they initiate negotiations with a Canadian company, to ensure that Canada supports the contract. Canadian contractors are responsible for executing the tasks as per ESA requirements, and the administration of these contracts is an ESA responsibility. ESA continues to invoice CSA three times a year and the contributions are payable in Euros. For both the Mandatory Activities and the Optional Programs, ESA awards contracts (excluding contracts under the Scientific Program and the Technical Research Programs contracts under the General Budget), to Canadian organizations in proportion with Canada’s level of contribution to the specific program. This is governed under an agreed principal of Fair Industrial Return in all ESA programs, and is the same for all ESA Member States. By contrast, the 1989 – 1999 Agreement only required ESA to employ best efforts concerning industrial returns to Canada. Under the current ESA industrial regime, each member country’s return for the overall program return and for its individual optional programs must be satisfactory; otherwise ESA takes proactive measures to increase returns. GOSS GILROY INC. 23 Canada participates in ESA meetings at all levels, and has the right to vote on questions relating to the activities and programs in which Canada participates. Canada may also attend a variety of other meetings as an observer. 3.4.2 Roles and Responsibilities of CSA and OGDs At the CSA, the principal interface role with the ESA involves its Space Technologies Branch and the External Relations Branch. CSA Space Technologies Branch - responsibilities include: Director General of Space Technologies is accountable for the management of the Program Appoints Canadian delegates on Subordinates Bodies and Program Boards, jointly with the Director - External Relations; Represents Canada on ESA Program Boards and DOSTAG (Data Operations Scientific and Technical Advisory Group); Identifies opportunities and consults industry for participation in new optional programs, organizes consultations with industry, and prepares the Program Approval Submission (PAS); Consults with concerned Departments and Agencies (e.g., DFAIT, DND, NRCan/ CCRS, IC/CRC) to reach an interdepartmental consensus on ESA optional programs; Presents PAS on the participation in new optional programs for Executive Committee (EC) approval; Submits annual work plans on Canada/ESA Programs; Coordinates ESA budgets, approves commitments and payments to ESA; Monitors the implementation of Canadian participation in ESA programs; Implements the information systems required by the Ongoing Performance Measurement and Evaluation strategies; Represents Canada on the ESA Administration, Industrial Policy Committee (IPC), and Finance Committee; and GOSS GILROY INC. 24 CSA External Relations - responsibilities include: Represents Canada at ESA Council meetings; Appoints Canadian delegates on Subordinates Bodies and Program Boards, jointly with the Director General - Space Technologies; Prepares Canadian positions for meetings of the ESA Council and International Relations Committee; Prepares the mid-term review of the Canada/ESA Cooperation; and Prepares bilateral Canada/ESA meetings at policy level. Prepares annual review of cooperation agreement at policy level in consultation with the Space Technologies and Space Sciences branches. The permanent Canadian Delegate to the ESA in Paris is a CSA employee, seconded to DFAIT to take on this responsibility. The delegate’s role, inter alia, comprises the following two tasks: representing Canada’s interests with ESA officials and at ESA meetings including Council, Program Boards, subordinate committees, collecting intelligence on European policies, programs and technologies of interest to Canada and involvement and support to bilateral relations with European countries The roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in the Agreement are summarized in Appendix D. GOSS GILROY INC. 25 3.5 Canada’s Participation in ESA 3.5.1 ESA Programs in which Canada Participates The ESA Programs in which Canada participates under the Agreement are summarized below in Exhibit 3.3, categorized by CSA’s Activity Areas. Descriptions of Canada’s participation in the ESA General Budget and each of the ESA Optional Programs, and the amount of funding provided, are also shown. Exhibit 3.3: Principal ESA Programs in which Canada has Participated (2000-2009) ESA Programs Description of Canada’s Participation General Budget - $63.6 million General Budget Canada’s contribution to the General Budget of ESA is mandatory and provides certain rights and privileges, the most important one being the right to participate in optional programs. Earth Observation (EO) - $140.2 million ENVISAT ENVISAT is the largest satellite built for EO, and it provides data on the earth’s atmospheres, oceans, land and ice. Canada has participated in the design, construction and deployment of ENVISAT. More than 23 Canadian teams are participating in exploiting the data generated by ENVISAT. EOEP EOEP comprises two main components: the Earth Explorer Component (which covers the definition, development, launch and operations of Earth Explorer Core and Opportunity missions) and the Development and Exploitation Component (which covers preparatory activities for Earth Explorer candidate missions, Earth Watch definition, Instrument pre-development, data exploitation, and mission continuity and ground segment). Canadian industry, and scientists of other government departments (MSC, DFO, AAFC, CCRS) as well as the universities are well positioned to take advantage of the opportunities in Earth Explorer missions; in terms of technology such as Lidar (Light Detection And Ranging), hyperspectral, radar, antenna subsystems, spectrometer instruments, uncooled microbolometer detector array, and ground segment processor areas. . In the areas of useroriented application, many Canadian value-added companies and scientific investigators are participating in the exploitation of satellite imagery. Canada participates in all of the EOEP program components. GOSS GILROY INC. 26 Earth Watch – Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) The GMES Service Element Program establishes service infrastructure that will use space-based Earth Observation data to generate information for policy makers and other users relating to the environmental and climate change issues. The GMES Space Component develops the required space segment infrastructure (i.e., satellites and the receiving stations) to generate the EO data required by GMES users and also includes the operations of all satellite and ground segment infrastructure providing the required data streams Canada participates in the GMES Service Element (GSE) and the GMES Space Component programs. In GSE, Canada is playing the leading role in Polar View providing services on Northern environment. For GMES Space Component, Canadian companies are involved in developing SAR processor and antenna systems. Canadian companies are also involved in the development of ground and space components of the GMES Sentinel 1 to 5. Telecommunications - $112.8 million Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems (ARTES) ARTES started in 1994 with two major aims: to develop technologies to be used in future satellite communication and navigation programs, and to help develop new markets so as to improve the competitiveness of the industry on the commercial market. These goals are broadly defined and permit the ARTES program to evolve with the rapidly changing needs of the field. Canada participates in the ARTES-1, 3, 4, 3-4 (a merger of the ARTES-3 and ARTES-4 program elements), 5, 8, and 9 programs to develop and demonstrate the technologies required for future satellite communications missions and enhance industry competitiveness. Navigation - $28.3 million Galileosat Galileo will be Europe’s own global navigation satellite system, providing highly accurate, guaranteed global positioning service under civilian control. It will be interoperable with GPS and Glonass, the two other global satellite navigation systems. Canada participates in the development and validation phase of GalileoSat, i.e., in the development of the receiver and in some space components. This minimum participation will position industry for the large volume orders expected to be procured commercially in later phases of the Program. Canada is also involved in the European GNSS Evolution. Space Exploration - $62.2 million Aurora The Program defines a European strategy for the exploration of the solar system over the next 30 years, including manned expeditions to the Moon, Mars, to asteroids and even beyond. Canada participates in the Aurora preparatory activities; the Aurora core programs; and the Aurora ExoMars enhanced and MREP programs. Canadian participation in Aurora establishes international partnerships and develops new space technologies, notably Lidar, robotics and scientific instruments for future missions to Solar system bodies. European Transportation and Human Exploration Preparatory Activities Programmes: Canada participates in these since November 2008 (ARV, IBDM, MREP, MELISSA, etc.) GOSS GILROY INC. 27 Science - $8.5 million The CSA involvement in Science is through the SWARM program. Canada’s contribution amounts to $8.5 million for this program. The Swarm mission will study the geomagnetic field evolution with precision, using a fleet of three satellites orbiting in the ionosphere. ESA has invited Canada to provide all three Swarm satellites with a Canadian electric field instrument (CEFI) based on the suprathermal ion imager (SII)-a Canadian particle detector design that has already proven its capability-in order to gather precise measurements of ion winds.” General Support Technology Program (GSTP) -$12.025 million The GSTP develops technologies for space applications, Canadian companies have developed innovative spacecraft and raise it to a proper readiness level for future ESA attitude control software and fiber-optic based monitoring missions. of spacecraft temperature and pressure which will be flown on the Proba 2 satellite, scheduled for launch in November 2009. Microgravity $13.9 million Canada participates in the ELIPS-2 and the ELIPS-3 ELIPS The ELIPS program promotes life and physical sciences programs. and applications using the European Columbus module on the International Space Station. Source: Canada-ESA Cooperation Agreement Expenditures and Commitments from 2000 to Future Fiscal Years 3.5.2 Canada’s Funding Contributions to ESA In March 2000, Treasury Board (TB) approved contributions to ESA of up to $30 million per fiscal year for the duration of the Agreement (1999/00 to 2008/09). These contributions were provided for the General Budget and for Optional Programs in which Canada participated. In 2005, the terms and conditions for the Contributions under the Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement were revised and included the following: Authority to commit up to a maximum of CDN $200 million to ESA over the last 5 years of the Agreement (i.e., between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2009; Authority to pay contributions to ESA after December 31, 2009 (the end of the Agreement) to honor commitments made prior to the end of the term, and; Setting of a to $200M ceiling for the contributions that CSA will pay to ESA over the last five years (January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2009) for both the General Budget and Optional Programs in which Canada participates. Exhibit 3.4 provides a pie chart of CSA’s expenditures and commitments for the GOSS GILROY INC. 28 Agreement by the CSA’s activity areas. Exhibit 3.4: Canada/ESA Cooperative Agreement Expenditures and Commitments by Activity Areas (20002009) General Support Tech Program (GSTP) $12,025 Microgravity 2.7% $13,917 3.2% Navigation $28,339 6.4% Science* $8,520 1.9% Earth Observation (EO) $140,202 31.7% Space Exploration $62,282 14.1% Mandatory Activities (General Budget) $63,590 14.4% Telecommunications , $112,820 25.5% Source: CSA (September 2009) Canada- ESA Cooperation Agreement Expenditures and Commitments from 2000 to Future Fiscal Years Appendix A displays the expenditures and commitments as authorized by the TB Submissions. Total CSA expenditures and commitments under the Agreement from 2000 to 2018-19 amount to $441.7 million. CSA entered into multi-year commitments and expenditure totaling $217.6 in the first five years under TB’s Program approval of 2000, while expenditures and commitments for the second 5 years, under TB’s Program approval of 2005, amounted to $224.1 million. This leaves $149.4 million in commitments for the 2010 to 2018/19. A year-by-year breakdown of those commitments and expenditures is provided in Appendix A. GOSS GILROY INC. 29 The budgetary emphasis on earth observation has generally been declining. It fell from 45.8% of the budget in the first five years to 33.6% in the second five years. At 34.4%, As of September 30, 2009, it accounted for a slightly greater share of outstanding commitments. Satellite communications (SC) has declined from 47.4% of expenditures over the first five years to 39.8% in the second five years and now amounts to 28.6% of outstanding commitments. In contrast to the above, there has been a growing emphasis on space exploration (SE), which has increased from 2.3% during the first five years of the Agreement to 23.3% in the last five years, currently accounting for 34.9% of outstanding commitments. Generic Technological Activities (GTA) make up the remainder of the budget. There have been only minor fluctuations the GTA as a percent of the budget.23 23 CA_01JAN00_31DEC08_TO CANADA 230909 GOSS GILROY INC. 30 3.6 Previous Reviews and Evaluations The table on the following page provides an assessment of the disposition of findings and recommendations from prior evaluations led by CSA Audit and Evaluation. The final column of the table presents GGI comments on the pertinence of the prior findings, in the light of the findings of the current summative evaluation. As indicated in Exhibit 3.6, management has followed up on the recommendations from prior evaluations. In each of those areas where management has pursued a course of action, it believes it has accomplished all that was possible. One issue, in particular – achieving the technology transfer objective – is no longer applicable, as the objectives of the 2000 Agreement were reworded to exclude technology transfer in 2005. GOSS GILROY INC. 31 Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Exhibit 3.6: Findings and Recommendations from Prior Evaluations Issue Recommendation Management Response 1. The European Union's close relationship with ESA is affecting Canada's opportunities for keeping European markets open to Canadian corporations. The CSA should intensify its efforts to secure a cooperation agreement with the European Union that will ensure that Canada maintains a presence in European markets. Since the strengthening of relationship between the EU and the ESA, considerable efforts have been made in making sure that the interests of Canadian corporations are being taken into consideration. Furthermore, the CSA is working on implementing a program that would help companies access EU markets – more specifically, emerging markets from the EU’s Seventh Framework Program. Funds have been located for the 2009-2010 fiscal year. However, the program could be delayed due to the complexity of its implementation. Management recommends that the CSA encourage Canadian corporations to use other programs from the Canadian government that could help them access foreign markets. 2. Achieving the technology transfer objective. The CSA should study the possibility of developing a program for companies that want to use the European Union's Sixth Framework Programme to penetrate the European market. The program should complement the existing Agreement. The CSA should review the technology transfer objective, which is not being met, according to the information gathered from businesses. GOSS GILROY INC. Given that the CSA’s regulations limit the organization’s actions in providing direct support for commercialization, CSA management believes it has taken all possible actions within its authority and its sphere of influence with regards to this matter. N/A Comments based on the evaluation findings This objective was removed from the post 2005 agreement. 32 Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Issue Recommendation Management Response 3. Achieving the objective of positioning SMEs with prime contractors in European markets. The CSA should review its methods of helping SMEs to penetrate the European market and thereby increase their competitiveness. This recommendation is linked to the one made in 1997. 4. Difficulty commercializing space products that have not received flight qualification. The CSA should offer a wider choice of programs that could offer flight opportunities to Canadian companies so as to increase the chances of commercializing Canadian products. 5. Consultation mechanisms are poorly publicized and do not facilitate industry participation in the selection of Canada/ESA programs, as instructed by the Program Terms & Conditions. To meet program requirements, the CSA should implement a well-structured and transparent process for holding consultations with industry to support the selection of and promote optional programs. The CSA continues to support a number of SMEs in their participation in the ESA program. The summative evaluation of the ESA program that is still under way will look at questions regarding commercialization support and access to foreign markets, and will make recommendations as to whether such efforts should be a part of the CSA mandate. Management indicated that a soon-to-be released evaluation report of ESA would cover those questions and make specific recommendations. Management has chosen not to pursue this recommendation for the time being. Canada has confirmed that it will augment its participation in the optional GSTP program, which will allow Canada to participate in the PROBA-3 program of the ESA. However, invested funds in the GSTP have been too low. The investment will need to be increased in upcoming years in order for Canada to participate fully in missions that allows for space qualification. Considering the efforts and success that have been obtained in this area, management has chosen not to pursue this recommendation further. N/A GOSS GILROY INC. Comments based on the evaluation findings The limited budget and the role of selected Canadian firms in critical technology development activities is a constraint to expanded participation by other SMEs. The envelope programs, however, such as Earth Observation Market Development have enabled participation of SMEs. For additional comments please see findings and recommendations. Much of the contract work for ESA is not related to or dependent on flight qualification. At the same time, there is a general sentiment that CSA activities at ESA are already spread very thinly. The evaluation found that this is still an issue. 33 Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Issue Recommendation Comments based on the evaluation findings The CSA continues to support common events with The chief comment received from industry 6. The industry feels The CSA should continue holding information ESA. Management believes that the best practice is relates to uncertainty on whether adequate it is missing out on sessions promoting ESA programs. to integrate Canadian activities in events organized budget remains under the Canadian funding many business envelope for a specific contract. by ESA, so as to encourage as many Canadian opportunities because The CSA should ensure that information given to corporations as possible to participate in the event. Strengthening support in Europe to of a lack of industry covers all relevant political aspects so as tendering companies really relates to the information. to allow companies to prepare tenders that meet the Notably, CSA management organized an event in level of resources available in Europe 2008 where the ESA informed the participants requirements of ESA calls for tenders. More (SMEs from the spatial industry) of programs and assigned to the CSA – ESA Agreement. specifically, this information should cover the Under the present business environment it Canada/ESA context of the program, funding, the initiatives of the ESA. Comments from the participants indicated that they were satisfied with would be appropriate for industry, acting European competition and the prime contractor through national and provincial the information they received. Management likely to be chosen by ESA. associations, to take the initiative believes that the CSA has accomplished all that concerning trade missions and market was necessary in this area. The CSA should identify and bring together intelligence. Canadian firms interested in establishing domestic alliances or consortiums to prepare tenders for ESA calls for tenders. 7. Managers are responsible for measuring the performance of the Agreement. Management Response The CSA should strengthen Canadian efforts and actions in Europe to promote and support companies that have submitted tenders to ESA. The CSA should identify or organize trade missions in partnership with other agencies or departments to help Canadian SMEs commercialize their goods and services with a view to marketing them to ESA and Europe. The CSA has hired an experienced manager in Program managers should review the ResultsBased Management and Accountability Framework performance measurement and RMAF implementation. (RMAF). The CSA should provide them with the resources they need to implement the RMAF so that information can be collected on a regular basis and ensure accountability for performance. Evaluation verified that progress is being made. The CSA should use tests to verify the information it receives from ESA concerning contracts awarded to Canadian corporations so as to ensure that the data used to measure the performance of the Agreement are reliable. GOSS GILROY INC. 34 Summative Evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement: Final Report Issue Recommendation 8. Canadian funding In consultation with TB, the CSA should is limited and subject implement a mechanism for mitigating the risks of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation. to pressure from exchange rates and inflation. These factors limit the availability of funds for programs and may lead to cost overruns. GOSS GILROY INC. Management Response N/A Comments based on the evaluation findings A Canadian dollar trust fund would help mitigate any reduction in available dollars to industry due to exchange rate costs of currency conversion. CSA advised that this is not feasible due to ESA legislation. 35 4.0 Findings This section provides the evaluation findings for issues of relevance, design and delivery, and results. A number of evaluation questions that are inter-related have been grouped together. A complete list of the evaluation issues is included in Appendix E. 4.1 Rationale for the CSA-ESA Agreement Q1: Do the policy, programmatic and industrial conditions/needs that led CSA to enter into a Cooperation Agreement with ESA in 2000 still exist today? If not, how have they changed? Q5: Is there a rationale to continue the Canada/ESA Cooperation for another ten years (2010 – 2019)? What is it? FINDING: The needs and conditions that led Canada to enter into the Agreement continue to exist. The study found strong support for continuing the Agreement. CSA and Canadian government representatives agreed that the policy, programmatic and industrial needs that existed in 2000 still exist today. They noted that the Agreement allows Canadian firms access to European prime contractors and important scientific data. Due to the fact that space endeavours are becoming increasingly multi-partner due to high costs and accessing required expertise, linkages with other organizations are of great importance. Canada has strength in SATCOM but the market for this is limited in Canada – thus requiring the need to look beyond our borders. Other countries such as China, India, and Japan are developing their own space programs so Canada needs to have an international perspective. CSA representatives also reported that the program has slowly changed from its original focus on science and technology cooperation to a program with an industrial development focus. Also ESA programming has expanded and there are now more programs that Canada would like to participate in than was the case in 2000. For example, CSA may now wish to invest differently, e.g., to better balance its limited funding between Earth Observation and Telecommunications with Navigation and Space Exploration. ESA representatives noted that one of the main motivations to continuing the GOSS GILROY INC. 36 agreement with Canada, from their perspective was that Canada has a substantial and interesting technology base, and that there are indirect benefits derived due to the Canadian knowhow and skills developed as a result of access to the US defense market. In sum, Canada is a “silent and preferred partner.” It was also noted that, if Canada participated in the science program, it would be of great benefit to Canadians. Another motivation for continuing the Agreement from an ESA perspective is that many ESA participants value having Canadian involvement, and value the Canadian approach and ideas, as Canada is less inclined to “play politics.” Despite the arrival of many new ESA members all trying to seek benefits, Canada still has some critical advantages: Canada has been involved with ESA over a long time period, and Canada has the industrial credibility that helps to generate benefits. ESA representatives believe that although Canada pays only half of a normal share for the general contribution, its approach has been strategic and has rendered good value for both Canada and ESA. ESA representatives said that they valued having Canadian involvement. Specifically, they value the Canadian approach to issues and the way in which Canada brings in new ideas. All of the key informants interviewed believed that there is a continued need for the Agreement, and therefore its renewal. All of the organizations that participated in the case studies believed that the opportunity for their organization to participate in the ESA program is important. This was consistent with the survey results in which 72% (28/39) of the survey respondents reported that the opportunity for their organization to participate in the ESA program was important. The rationale for continuing the agreement derives from several factors: Given its relatively small budget, the activities that the Canadian Space Agency can pursue are relatively small in scope compared to those pursued by ESA. The breadth and depth of technologies under development are considered much greater in ESA programs than what CSA can support in its own programs due to the much greater ESA budgets and the diversity of partners and programs involved in ESA. Recent US regulations (ITAR) have restricted the amount of space related work originating from NASA and the USA in general. Interviewees believe that a healthy and expanding Canadian space industry must look beyond the North American borders and find opportunities to participate in GOSS GILROY INC. 37 international missions and programs. In the coming years, ESA will be defining and pursuing its flagship missions (e.g., Aurora’s ExoMars and Mars Sample Return as well as the Outer Planets: Europa Jupiter System Mission, Titan Saturn System Mission, etc.), which will be a very large endeavor requiring the participation of many countries and multiple space industries (e.g., ESA, NASA, and JAXA). These upcoming missions represent tremendous opportunity for Canada given its strength in SATCOM and robotics, and the perception of Canada as an intermediary that understands how to work effectively with NASA. The Agreement is also important for Canadian SMEs engaged in technologies that are applicable in the space sector, especially to those firms looking to test their technologies in space. The Agreement allows Canadian firms to be at the forefront of technology development by providing access to technical specialists in space agencies in Europe countries. The case studies reinforced the fact that the Agreement provides firms advantageous access to ESA for Canadian SMEs working in the sector. According to one firm that participated in the case studies, ESA flight opportunities “made the reputation of the company.” Several case study firms reported that the ability to list ESA as one of their clients provides a competitive advantage and has helped them win business with prospective clients. As well, federal organizations such as the Communications Research Centre (CRC) and the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS) have information needs that are satisfied by technologies developed under the ESA program. In several cases, Canadian firms participating in ESA programs developed these technologies. The Canadian departments can use alternative data sources to some extent, but the availability of data from ESA funded projects increases the richness of the data available. ESA representatives consider Canada one of the leading countries technologically, and in some areas Canada provides an important source of technical know-how that would be filled by others if Canada left the Agreement. If European firms were left to fill the gap, it could also undermine Canadian firms’ competitive advantage in some key technologies. Using a shorter timeframe, DB Geoservices Inc. found that incremental contracts arising from the ESA contracts amounted to 2.7-4.9 times the value of the ESA GOSS GILROY INC. 38 contracts24. Our analysis, based on the conservative assumptions outlined earlier, indicated that follow on sales resulting from ESA contracts were at least 1.25 times the original ESA contracts. Finally, both ESA representatives and Canadian government officials underlined the importance of the Agreement as an instrument for reinforcing Canada-European relations, and that discontinuance of the Agreement would be seen negatively by the European participants in ESA, not only because of the technical value of Canada’s participation but also because of the diplomatic message that it will send. Q2: Is the Canada/ESA Agreement consistent with the priorities of the Government of Canada? And with the priorities of Canada's Space Program? Q3: Does the program support the science information needs of the government? FINDING: The Agreement is consistent with the priorities of the Canadian Government (Government of Canada) and the CSA. The Agreement supports many science information needs in the areas of Internet access, earth observation, search and rescue, and resource management. Consistency with Government of Canada Priorities Evaluators conducted interviews with representatives from CSA and pertinent government departments, including DFAIT, NRCan, and Industry Canada, to address this issue. All key informants agreed that the Agreement was consistent with government priorities as well as with the priorities of CSA. Support for Canadian Science information Needs and Participation by Canadian Scientists The evaluation team found numerous areas where Canada’s participation in the ESA program supports the science information needs of the government. For example, interviews conducted with government departments revealed that ESA involvement in ERS1 and ERS2 assisted in the development of RADARSAT. The ESA Agreement gives Canada access to ESA earth observation satellites that complement and provide back-up for Canada’s earth observation resources, so that Canada is not solely dependent on RADARSAT. Following are some examples: 24 The Communication Research Center (CRC) is participating in an ESA DB Geoservices, Evaluation of the Canadian/European Space Agency (ESA Cooperation Agreement p. 12. GOSS GILROY INC. 39 communication program that promises to bring multimedia to remote Canadian communities. Services could include Internet access, medical expertise, and improved search and rescue capability for the Canadian Coast Guard. A Canadian firm has and will continue to utilize synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery from the SAR missions for applications for the wider user community including the Federal, Provincial and Territorial governments for use in different application areas such as oil-spill monitoring, natural disaster assessment and monitoring, flood monitoring, agriculture and forestry. From a historical perspective, during the ESA ERS development (i.e., 1980’s), Canadian scientists from CCRS (Canada Centre for Remote Sensing) played a major role in the development of SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) measurement and processing techniques which, in turn, enabled the Canadian company MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) to become prime contractor for the ERS-1 ground segment. The MDA has been successful ever since in capitalizing on this opportunity to become the world leader in SAR processors. For the follow-on ENVISAT missions, Canadian scientists were selected to be members of various mission advisory groups (MAGs), and more than 28 proposals were submitted by the Canadian scientific community in response to an Announcement of Opportunity (AO) for Calibration/validation (CAL/VAL) and data exploitation, most of which were accepted. Presently, within the Earth Observation Envelope Programme (EOEP), a Canadian scientist from University of Toronto is serving in the ESAC (Earth Science Advisory Committee) which oversees the overall science aspects of the ESA EO. The Canadian scientists from Environment Canada (MSC), the Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM) and the University of Calgary are serving as members of MAG in EarthCARE and Swarm Earth Explorer missions. In particular, exploiting the expertise gained from the CloudSAT mission of NASA, Canadian scientists from MSC (Meteorological Service of Canada) are expected to play a major role in CAL/VAL and development of algorithms for the EarthCARE mission. Based on Canada’s long-standing experience in the study of the ionosphere using space borne and suborbital probes, a Canadian team led by University of Calgary designed an Electric Field Instrument for the SWARM mission, and they will exploit the data. Due to the large landmass of Canada (as large as all of Western Europe) and its location (Northern and Arctic), many of the scientific objectives of the Earth Explorer GOSS GILROY INC. 40 missions such as the SMOS, CryoSAT-2, and CoReH2O (a candidate mission) are of considerable interest to Canada. For CryoSAT-2, more than six PIs (Principle Investigators) are involved in CAL/VAL activities, most of which are taking place in Devon Island. In terms of data access, the Sentinel missions of GMES are expected to generate a lot of data required for operational monitoring of the environment, the state of vegetation, the coastal ocean areas, etc. Government departments such as NRCan, MSC/EC, DFO, CFS, CIS and AAFC are very interested in receiving these data. Through Canada’s current participation in ESA, and the GMES Space Component, it will be possible to arrange direct reception over Canada of data of Canadian interest as it is done currently for the ENVISAT, ASAR, and MERIS. Consistency with S&T Strategy The CSA aligns its priorities with the priorities outlined in Canada's Science and Technology (S&T) Strategy, Mobilizing Science and Technology to Canada's Advantage, the goals of which are to improve Canada's S&T-related competitiveness and to promote entrepreneurial innovation and creativity. The strategy seeks to foster Canada's S&T competitiveness through investments and activities in three key areas: entrepreneurial advantage, knowledge advantage and people advantage. The goal of the strategy is to foster three distinct Canadian S&T advantages: an Entrepreneurial Advantage (translating knowledge into commercial applications that generate wealth and support a high quality of life); a Knowledge Advantage (positioning Canada at the leading edge of developments that generate health, environmental, societal, and economic benefits); and a People Advantage (building a well-educated, highly-skilled, and flexible workforce in order to thrive in the modern global economy). The S&T strategy also identifies four priority areas for enhanced investment and activity: environmental science and technologies; natural resources and energy; health and related life sciences and technologies; and information and communications technologies. The Agreement is consistent with the priorities outlined in the S&T Strategy. The Agreement follows the three key areas outlined in the Strategy. The Agreement has led to a number of developments in areas such as Internet access, earth observation, search and rescue, and resource management which have been wealth generators and allowed Canada to be at the forefront of scientific developments that generate strong benefits. In addition, the Agreement has contributed to the strengthening of Canada’s workforce by building a skilled, well-educated workforce. GOSS GILROY INC. 41 Q4: Would companies have obtained contracts on these ESA programs without the Canadian contribution? FINDING: Without the Agreement, ESA could not have provided Canadian companies with the contracts it received. Although a small number of firms that participated in the evaluation (13%, or 3 of 25case studies and 10%, of respondents in the survey) believe they might have obtained some work with ESA and/or its contractors without the Canadian contribution to ESA, there is general consensus amongst case study respondents and all key informants that the reality of ESA’s “pay to play” system would have likely precluded Canadian companies from making a significant mark in the European space arena. Even small contracts that were obtained outside of ESA by Canadian firms were, in fact, the result of connections with ESA, albeit indirectly in some cases. Q6: Is Canada participating in the most appropriate ESA programs? FINDING: Canada is participating in the ESA programs in which the Canadian space industry has a competitive advantage. Whether these are the most appropriate programs for Canada in the long term is the subject of some debate. At this point in time, CSA has not finalized a long-term plan for Canada’s involvement in Space. According to CSA key informants, the selection of ESA programs is done in consultation with Canadian industry. Generally, the ESA programs chosen are focused on areas where there are industrial opportunities for Canada and that match Canada’s Space objectives and are compatible with the priorities of the government. Key informants from government departments were of the opinion that the CSA focus for ESA program selection is primarily on industrial benefit as compared to informational and policy needs of departments. Nevertheless, departmental units that rely on the ESA program for data (e.g., CCRS) have quarterly reviews with CSA and have the opportunity to advise CSA of potential benefits to Canada from participating in a particular ESA programs. The evaluation found that 80%, or 20 out of 25 firms that participated in the case studies believe that Canada is participating in the most appropriate ESA programs. GOSS GILROY INC. 42 Key informant interviews (federal government staff) reinforced the findings of the case studies. Fifteen (15) of 27interviewees believe Canada has chosen appropriate programs. Eight interviewees could not comment, and three felt Canada is participating in too many ESA programs. The possibility that Canada is participating in too many programs and is spread too thinly was also raised in interviews with some CSA officials. Canadian companies that participated in the survey generally had less involvement in ESA programs than the case study companies. More than half (24 of 38 firms25) indicated that they were not familiar enough with the various ESA programs to judge whether or not Canada was participating in the most appropriate programs. Nevertheless, the ESA contract opportunities appear to align reasonably well with many of them, since 22 of 39 firms (56%) reported that they align well with their organization’s strengths. Not surprisingly, firms in the space sector that have never participated in an ESA contract that were also surveyed indicated that ESA opportunities do not align particularly well with their own strengths. Only 16% percent of these respondents felt that the interests of their firms aligned well with the ESA opportunities, 37% felt some opportunities aligned well and others did not; 32% said the opportunities did not align well at all, and 15% did not know enough about ESA opportunities to answer. The CSA program supports areas where Canada has been traditionally strong (Earth Observation and SATCOM), with some further diversification into newer areas in the second half of the 10-year period. This is consistent with the expenditure data for ESA reviewed by the evaluation team. Overall, the evaluation team concluded that the selection of ESA programs in which to participate by CSA is based on alignment with Canadian industrial and technological strengths and to a lesser extent with the science research and data needs of Canadian government departments. 4.2 Design and Delivery Issues Q7: Is CSA promoting and communicating the Canada/ESA Agreement and its 25 One of 39 original respondents did not answer this question according to the original meaning, leaving 38 actual respondents. GOSS GILROY INC. 43 opportunities effectively to Canadian firms? FINDING: CSA is not communicating opportunities to Canadian firms as effectively and consistently as it could. At the same time, the Agency must be careful not to create unrealistic expectations, since demand for ESA opportunities exceeds available Canadian funding. CSA presents upcoming ESA opportunities to industry at the CSA’s annual Technology Days symposium. Every few years, CSA holds discussions with select firms to obtain feedback concerning how the ESA program is managed by CSA and to identify ways through which it can be improved. Canadian firms are welcome to register with and monitor the EMITS system of ESA for announcement of procurement opportunities. It is important for firms to fully understand the ESA opportunity, the availability of Canadian funds in the ESA program, and the CSA attitude toward the opportunity. Furthermore, in some ESA optional programs, formal requests come from ESA asking whether CSA supports a particular Canadian company. For these reasons, informed companies will generally verify the status of the project with the requisite CSA program manager before deciding whether to submit a proposal. CSA interviewees mentioned some difficulties in promoting the Canada/ESA Agreement and its opportunities to Canadian firms. First it is difficult to convince “unproven” organizations to position themselves for contracts, given the limited ESA funds available for contracts, many companies’ limited resources to engage in marketing and the limited support available from DFAIT in the promotion of opportunities with ESA. Some respondents felt that it was the responsibility of each CSA program area to inform its client companies of opportunities in their sector while others felt that it was the responsibility of the firms to keep themselves informed (either through EMITS, attending Technology Days, or contacting CSA personnel directly). This is supported by the findings from the contract recipient survey as well as the case studies. Stakeholders believe that CSA could improve how it communicates ESA opportunities to Canadian industry. The majority of survey respondents that had participated in ESA contracts (32 of 39 firms, or 82%), which represents organizations that were less engaged in ESA contracts than the case study organizations, stated that the CSA could improve how it communicates the Canada/ESA Agreement and its opportunities. Only 6 of 39 firms (15%) believe that GOSS GILROY INC. 44 the CSA is effective in communicating opportunities. These findings were reinforced by the case studies, in which only 8 firms (33%) reported that CSA was communicating ESA opportunities effectively. These findings are consistent with the findings of the 2004 evaluation. Firms that have not participated in ESA contracts indicated in the survey that CSA was not promoting and communicating the Canada/ESA Agreement and its opportunities effectively to Canadian firms (79% or 15/19)26. For example 15 of 19 firms (79%) reported not having had any contact from CSA promoting and communicating the Canada/ESA Agreement and its opportunities to them; two firms (11%) reported they had received occasional communications; and another two firms (11%) reported they received communication from CSA concerning opportunities. Overall, only 3 firms (16%) felt that communications from CSA had been appropriate. Those interviewed who reported CSA was not effective in its communications claimed that much of the information they acquired and many of the contracts they obtained resulted from their own efforts, not from information provided by CSA. Those who thought CSA was only somewhat effective in its communications were positive about the Agency’s care in responding to questions and concerns posed by industry players, but criticized the Agency’s passive approach to communication. One case study interviewee suggested that CSA could produce an information bulletin with opportunities that might be of interest to Canadian firms, while another noted that CSA could be more pro-active in involving Canadian industry in its strategic and tactical decisions. One of the larger case study firms noted that if you don’t know about an opportunity before it arrives on EMITS, you have little chance of winning. Q8: What challenges have Canadian firms faced in trying to access ESA contracts? How do they overcome them? FINDING: The major challenges faced by Canadian firms relate to the relatively limited and sometimes uncertain Canadian funding of ESA programs, complexity and difficulty of the ESA bidding process, and distance from Europe. The principle challenges facing Canadian firms are the level of funding, and more 26 One respondent said: “They made a presentation that I attended concerning the topic. My understanding from that is that there are no opportunities. If that’s correct, they have effectively communicated that.” GOSS GILROY INC. 45 particularly obtaining timely information on the availability of funding, knowledge of whom to contact at ESA for information and the role of the return coefficient in the decision making process. In addition, the general level of competition is viewed by many firms as a challenge. Some firms also claimed a lack of support from CSA in the proposal process. This was particularly the case for firms that have yet to win an ESA contract The challenge most often cited from the case studies was the level of funding that Canada contributes to ESA. Given the “pay-to-play” nature of most ESA programs, the unavailability of Canadian funds appears to be the most significant obstacle to Canadian industry. One rather large case study firm indicated that they have had to pass on about 70% of the ESA opportunities in which they were interested, due to insufficient Canadian funding in ESA programs. The lack of funding has, it is reported, lead to innovative Canadian ideas being exploited by international competitors who have ESA funding availability. According to a case study interviewee this has permitted competitors to catch up with or surpass Canadian firm capability in some areas. More critical, however, is the need to for companies to know whether funding is available within the Canadian contribution envelope in order to decide whether to prepare a bid. This issue can be resolved by appropriate contacts at CSA, and successful firms report that they have done this. Sometimes, however, information on funding availability was not conveyed in a timely manner. Thus, for example Canadian companies may learn of an opportunity, build a team and partnership, and even receive preliminary approval from CSA, but later, CSA may indicate that there is insufficient funding left in the program to accommodate a Canadian bid. According to the key informant, this is unfortunately what occurred with the ExoMars mission. A related challenge is the lack of sufficient Canadian funding in specific ESA program areas that are areas of specialization for Canadian firms. Three surveyed firms that have participated in ESA contracts, and another two surveyed firms that have not participated, specifically mentioned this as a challenge. Related to the funding issue is the issue of the target return on CSA expenditures in terms of contracts to Canadian organizations (geo-return). At least one key informant referred to contracts lost by Canadian firms under circumstances that would indicate that the decision was made on the basis of Canada already exceeding its geo-return for a program. GOSS GILROY INC. 46 Generally, firms that have faced contracting challenges report having learned to work through CSA channels, particularly the program managers and delegates. A key avenue for information on ESA, in this respect, is the Space Counselor at the Canadian Embassy in Paris. In addition, successful firms have developed their own information networks in Europe. Key informant interviews with CSA and government staff members pointed out that given the relatively modest Canadian contributions to ESA, Canadian firms, especially the smaller ones, must gain considerable credibility before competing at the ESA level. Where the level of technology development is an issue, CSA has in many cases been instrumental in issuing contracts to a firm to advance its capabilities to the point where it can bid on and win ESA contracts. ESA also has a special SME program under its EMITS system. At least one firm case study firm successfully used this route. The process for accessing ESA contracts is viewed by some case study firms as being complex, and subject to delays and uncertainty. For example, forty-four percent of firms surveyed reported the process was heavily bureaucratic, and another 19% reported that they lack sufficient knowledge about ESA and/or CSA procedures and politics. One key informant noted that even big firms sometimes have difficulties in determining whom to speak with at ESA on specific topics. As mentioned earlier, various CSA program managers and delegates to ESA, as well as the Space Counselor in Paris, are cited as sources to address such issues. Firms that have yet to win an ESA contract have similar challenges with the proposal process. Forty-three percent of those surveyed reported they did not receive enough support from CSA before and during the application process, 29% reported that they did not have enough staff to support the application process, and 50% reported they do not understand ESA and/ or CSA policies well enough. The majority of surveyed firms that have participated in ESA contracts (69%) recommended improvements to the process. Of those surveyed firms providing recommendations, 45% mentioned that CSA should provide support for Canadian firms before and during the process of applying for ESA contracts; that CSA should help firms identify relevant upcoming ESA opportunities (35%); and that CSA should share more information about the European space industry and market (15%). The cost of travel to Europe and dealing with European partners are also challenging. Fifteen percent of surveyed firms that participated in ESA contracts reported GOSS GILROY INC. 47 problems dealing with partners, and 11% reported the cost of travelling back and forth to Europe as a challenge. Firms that have yet to win an ESA contract reported similar challenges. The majority of these firms (64%) felt that a challenge in trying to access ESA contracts was that ESA preferred to use European firms; 50% had difficulty in locating appropriate European firms with which to partner; and 14% felt the geographical distance from Europe was a challenge. Nineteen percent (5/26) of the respondents who mentioned challenges had not been able to overcome them. Respondents had resolved issues by being patient and taking the time to go through the sometimes lengthy processes (23% or 6/26), hire someone new to meet the requirements (8% or 2/26), or only bid on smaller contracts (8%). Other solutions mentioned (by one respondent each) were: negotiating, finding appropriate partners in Canada or Europe, finding another route to get ESA projects without first getting CSA approval (e.g. going through the ESA General Budget), getting support from CSA staff, and travelling to Europe. GOSS GILROY INC. 48 4.3 Results and Impacts of the CSA-ESA Agreement Q9: Have the contracts awarded by ESA to Canadian companies and organizations achieved the minimum overall return coefficient of 0.94 as set out by the ESA Council? Q10: Have contracts awarded under the General Budget and individual Optional Programs achieved a minimum guaranteed return of 0.84 as set out by the ESA Council? FINDING: Contracts awarded to Canada have achieved an overall return coefficient of 1.09 for the 2000-08 period, according to ESA data.27 This means that between 2000 and 2008 Canadian firms received a greater share of the overall weighted value of contracts awarded by ESA in Programs in which Canada participates than the ideal value set for Canada for these programs. The minimum overall return coefficient approved by the ESA Council for the current period is .94. Canada ranks second only to the Netherlands in achieving the calculated return coefficient, according to the same data.28 As described in Section 3.4, Canadian organizations receive contracts from ESA commensurate with CSA’s contribution. The following shows Canada’s comparative position, especially with respect to other ESA members. Canada’s Comparative Position The ESA return calculations are computed in accordance with the European Apace Agency Council Resolution ESA (98)92 Regulation 5: “ The overall return coefficient per Member State shall be calculated by totaling the weighted values of all contracts placed with industry and organizations of that State under each of the Agency’s programmes (or “overall value of contracts”) and then comparing that value with the sum of ideal values (or “overall ideal value”) for the same programmes for that State.” In calculating these returns, ESA excludes overhead (OH) or administration in determining the amount of return received by a country. In addition to the ESA 27 Source: European Space Agency, Industrial Policy Committee. (April 2009). Geographical Distribution of Contracts, Situation as per 31 December 2008. 28 Ibid. GOSS GILROY INC. 49 General Budget, of which only a portion is available for contracts, each of the Optional Programs includes an overhead or administrative component. The overhead/administrative component varies by Optional Program, and, based on data provided by the CSA, evaluators estimated that it has been found to average approximately 25% of the contributed amounts. ESA’s document Geographical distribution of contracts (April 2009), Exhibits 4.1, and 4.2, below, respectively, show Canada’s return coefficients for the Mandatory Programs, and overall; as well as Canada’s rank in comparison with other contributing states. Charts illustrating Canada’s rank in each area are provided in Appendix F. Exhibit 4.1: Canada’s Return Coefficients and Rank, for Mandatory Programs 1.4 1.26 Return Coefficient for Mandaotry Programs (All) 1.2 1.16 1.14 1.1 1 1.0 1 0.98 0.91 0.9 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.83 0.76 0.8 0.69 0.6 0.64 0.59 0.4 0.2 0.12 0.0 ESA Member States and Canada Source: ESA. Industrial Policy Committee. April 2009. Geographical distribution of contracts, Situation as per 31 December 2008. GOSS GILROY INC. 50 Exhibit 4.2: Canada’s Return Coefficients and Rank, Overall Overall Return Coefficients 1.25 1.15 1.15 1.09 1.05 0.95 1.06 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01 1 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.79 0.75 0.65 0.55 0.5 0.45 ESA Member States and Cooperating States Source: ESA. Industrial Policy Committee. April 2009. Geographical distribution of contracts, Situation as per 31 December 2008. Based on ESA’s calculations, Canada is shown to have the second-highest return coefficient overall for the Mandatory Programs. On an individual program basis, Canada’s return coefficient varies. Exhibit 4.4 indicates that: Although we have contributed only about .7% of program budgets for both mandatory and optional programs, Canada’s performance has been good with a return coefficient of 1.09 overall; Canada’s performance has led to our rank of 2nd of the 21 countries participating in ESA. GOSS GILROY INC. 51 Exhibit 4.3: Canada’s Contribution to Each Program and the Return Obtained by Canada on ESA Contracts as Well as Rank Achieved, by Program Area Program Mandatory Activities Optional Programs Earth Observation (EO) Telecommunications Navigation Manned Space Exploration Microgravity Science* Technology Percentage Contribution 0.3% Return Coefficient 1.16 2 out of 18 1.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% N/A 0.6% 1.17 1.01 1.02 1.64 0.38 N/A 1.08 5 out of 19 3 out of 17 9 out of 16 3 out of 14 14 out of 15 N/A 3 out of 19 Rank Overall 0.7% 1.09 2 out of 21 Source: Geographical distribution of contracts – Situation as per 31 December 2008 [ESA/IPC(2008)13, rev.3] * Contracts awarded for SWARM are accounted for under EO in ESA’s statistics The figures in Exhibit 4.3 are based on ESA’s calculations. The methodology used by ESA is described in The ESA methodology is provided in document ESAC (98)92 GEO RETURN pdf29. Exhibit 4.4 displays the total contracts to Canadian organizations (as reported by ESA and not weighted by quality of contract) as a multiple of CSA contributions to ESA (as per CSA financial reports) less the overhead paid to ESA. The intention of these calculations was to determine how much of the Canadian contributions to ESA have actually been returned to Canadian firms/organizations, in terms of contract dollars after all overheads including the mandatory payment for general budget support. (However, it is important to note that for a given year, there is no direct correlation between the contributions made and the contracts obtained by Canadian firms. The best that can be done is to try and match contributions to ESA with CSA expenditures over an extended period of time, recognizing that the match is never complete, as ESA contracts tend to lag the CSA contributions.) 29 The overall return coefficient per Member State is calculated by totaling the weighted values of all contracts placed with industry and organizations of that State under each of the Agency’s programmes (or “overall value of contracts”) and then comparing that value with the sum of ideal values (or “overall ideal value”) for the same programmes for that State. 1. The value of contracts placed with industry and organizations of a Member State under each of the Agency’s programmes shall be weighted by using the technological weighting factors, which are in force in the Agency at the time of calculation and entered by the Agency, in EURO, in the Agency’s geographical return data bank; whereby the value entered shall represent the weighted sum of payments made in EURO together with weighted outstanding commitments expressed in EURO. All payments made in national currencies and, where necessary, outstanding commitments are converted into EURO in the manner specified in the Agency Financial Regulations in force at the time of calculation of the geographical distribution of contracts. GOSS GILROY INC. 52 Exhibit 4.4: Total Contracts to Canadian Organizations as a Multiple of Expenditures Minus Overhead, Based on GGI’s Calculations (2000-08) Category Total ESA Contracts to Canadian Firms* ESA Progam Overhead CSA Expenditures** Net CSA Expenditures Available for Contract (after ESA Overhead) $70,409 30.9% $89,482 $61,870 1.14 $6,807 27.1% $15,849 $11,561 0.59 $ 66,743 18.4% $90,000 $73,451 0.91 $4,999 20.0% $8,501 $6,801 0.74 $55,568 $55,568 0.51 Earth Observation (EO)*** Science & Exploration Satellite Communications GSTP Mandatory Activities (General Budget) $28,520 Ratio of Contracts to Net CSA Expenditures TOTAL $177,477 $259,400 $209,249 0.85 Source: Canada-ESA Cooperation Agreement Expenditures and Commitments from 2000 to Future Fiscal Years, List of ESA contracts to Canada, 2000-2008 * Includes Contracts from January 2000 through December 2008 ** Includes contributions to ESA budget years 2000 to 2008 (i.e from January 2000 to October 2008) *** Expenditures include additional funding provided for SWARM so as to ensure proper comparison with contracts awarded by ESA Exhibit 4.5 demonstrates, that contracts to Canadian firms amounted to 68% of the gross CSA expenditure for ESA programs, but as is seen in Exhibit 4.4 this number rises to 85% when overheads are netted out and net expenditures used as the base. Canada’s Actual Dollar Return Based on ESA contracts to Canadian organizations under the Agreement since 2000, the following exhibit shows the dollar amount of contracts, by program area, received by Canadian firms from January 2000 through December 2008 (the latest data available), according to CSA’s document, “List of ESA Contracts to Canada, 20002008,”30 as a fraction of CSA’s expenditures related to the Agreement over the same period (i.e., January 2000 through December 2008). Although more recent follow-on expenditure data are available, the consultant considered expenditures only until December 2008 in order to appropriately compare them to contract data for the same period. 30 Data in this document is only available to December 2008. GOSS GILROY INC. 53 Exhibit 4.5: Canada’s Return Contribution, in Terms of Contracts (2000 – 2008) CSA Expenditures ($ in millions)* Canadian Contracts ($ in millions)** Canadian Contracts/CSA Contribution 55.6 28.5 0.51 Earth Observation (EO) 89.5 70.4 0.79 Telecommunications 71.0 53.7 0.76 Navigation 19.0 13.1 0.69 Space Exploration 10.1 5.2 0.51 Microgravity 5.8 1.6 0.29 GSTP 8.5 5.0 0.59 CSA Activity Areas Mandatory Activities (General Budget) *** TOTAL 259.4 177.5 0.68 Source: Canada-ESA Cooperation Agreement Expenditures and Commitments from 2000 to Future Fiscal Years, List of ESA contracts to Canada, 2000-2008 * Includes contributions to ESA budget years 2000 to 2008 (i.e. from January 2000 to October 2008) ** Includes Contracts from January 2000 through December 2008 *** Expenditures include additional funding provided for SWARM so as to ensure proper comparison with contracts awarded by ESA The exhibit indicates that, based on the assumptions noted, Canada received just about $0.68 in contracts for each dollar it contributed to ESA. The return varies by activity area, with EO and Telecommunications showing the highest return at .79 and 0.76, respectively. Q11: To what extent have the Canadian companies that received ESA contracts maintained or increased their complement of core scientists, engineers and technicians? FINDING: More than half of Canadian firms report that ESA contracts have maintained or increased their scientific staff. These numbers were extrapolated from the sample to the entire population. Since 2000, ESA contracts to Canadian companies have provided 1297 person years of work, of which 182 person years were new hires. Of this amount an estimated 821 were HQP person years. This last number represents 63% of the total person years of work. In comparison, approximately 33% of the space sector workforce in Canada overall are engineers or scientists31. Firms also reported that the experience and relationships developed in ESA 31 Source: “State of the Canadian Space Sector: Policy and External Relations”, 2007, p.18. GOSS GILROY INC. 54 contracts also allowed them to win non-ESA work requiring the hiring of an additional 291 persons. Twenty-seven (27) of 37surveyed firms (73%) and 16 of 24 case study firms (67%) reported that the ESA contracts had helped them maintain or increase their complement of core scientists, engineers and technicians32. For example, roughly four of the 12 people currently working in geomatics at one case study firm were hired because ESA contracts directly led them to win non-ESA follow-on work. Another case study firm estimates that it hired 21 new employees due to winning ESA contracts over the period 2000-2009. Q12: To what extent have Canada/ESA programs contributed to enhancing existing technological and innovation capabilities of the companies that received ESA contracts? Q13: To what extent has the Agreement facilitated the development and demonstration of advanced technologies, systems, components, or tools? FINDING: Canada/ESA programs appear to have contributed to the 1) enhancement of the existing technological/innovation capabilities; and the 2) development/demonstration of advanced technologies, systems, components, and tools of the companies that received ESA contracts, with some firms using the programs to increase their capabilities in areas of core competence and others using the programs to explore new areas. The evidence for this is primarily anecdotal. Without a baseline, it is difficult to measure the extent to which Canada/ESA programs have contributed to enhancing existing technological and innovation capabilities of the companies that received ESA contracts. That said, the evidence presented below is basically anecdotal. In one case, a firm obtained experience via ESA’s European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites I and II, which helped the firm build its capacity for the RADARSAT program. In another case, the contract to a particular company for the production of an Electric Field Instrument has allowed that company to re-establish itself in the business of Satellite Payload and Instrumentation, a niche that it had 32 Two respondents stated that this question was not applicable to them, as they worked in academia, and these questions were only relevant to industry respondents. One respondent skipped this question. GOSS GILROY INC. 55 abandoned for several years. In a third case, an aerospace company that started as a university-based contract was able to acquire the critical mass necessary to form a start-up company following the receipt of several ESA contracts. In light of these and other examples, it can be said that some of the companies have used the Canada/ESA programs to increase their technological/innovation capabilities in one or more of their core-competence areas (e.g., iceberg detection, circuit-board manufacture), while others have used the Canada/ESA programs to “bring them up a notch and do work somewhere else,” and have thus used the programs for leverage. Regardless, 77% (or 27 out of 3533) of the survey respondents reported that the ESA contract(s) had allowed their firms to develop new skills or technologies, and 96% (or 23 out of 2434) of the case-study key informants reported that the programs had increased their firms’ innovation capability. A number of newly developed skills and technology advancements that have been derived from the ESA contracts were reported in our case studies and interviews. These skills can be put into two groups: general skills, which can be applied to a variety of areas, and skills specific to a certain sector or area of technology. A complete list can be found in Appendix H. Some of the general skills reported included: an enhanced knowledge of European markets; increased familiarity with European standards; development of skilled teams in space technologies; development of skills to transfer space technologies to terrestrial applications; improved handling of IP to maintain secrecy requirements; expanded geomatics capabilities; and, training of part-time employees into full-time workers. The more specific skills reported included the development of expanded technology capacity to handle L-Band data and develop Ka-Band multi-beam antennae; establishment of teams with partners to market outside of Europe; updated flight skills; and increased GaN R&D capabilities. The program also led to significant development of advanced technologies and systems. Examples of developments of advanced technologies and systems within the field of soil moisture include contributions to the development of the ground 33 4 respondents indicated that their ESA contract(s) were did not include the development of skills or technologies, one skipped this question 34 One respondent did not respond GOSS GILROY INC. 56 segment for an instrument to measure soil moisture (SM) for ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, which included the development, procurement and verification of the SM processor; EO to assess market forces that influence and drive the fisheries and aquaculture sector; and the Earth Explorer Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus) which will provide global observations of wind profiles from space to improve the quality of weather forecasts, and to advance our understanding of atmospheric dynamics and climate processes. Within the sphere of communications and navigation, a number of advanced technologies and systems were developed, most notably in the fields of Software Defined Radio, GaN and GPS receivers. In developing a platform that forms the core of the Software Defined Radio Regenerative Communications Satellite System Array (SDRRCS), the developer blended its own architecture with the Software Communications Core Architecture (SCA). GaN is a semiconductor with inherent material properties, that when used in devices can deliver vastly superior performance compared to currently available semiconductors. The most important of these are the ability to operate with: high power, high voltage, high temperature, high speed, high tolerance for radiation and low noise. GPS receivers were developed for the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) and subsequent ground receivers. Within the synthesis and analysis sphere, several technologies were developed, including the Nest ESA Toolbox. The NEST toolbox is designed to read, postprocess, analyze and visualize Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from past, present and future ESA SAR satellite missions. There were also developments within EO applications for the rapidly expanding aquaculture industry and specifically monitoring programs of multinational companies, such as Mainstream Chile. In addition to these remote sensing products and services, companies developed technologies for mapping of mine activity, progressive reclamation, and sustainable development reporting. Q14: To what extent has the Canada/ESA Agreement generated more flight opportunities to space-qualify Canadian technologies or products? FINDING: The Canada/ESA Agreement has generated more flight opportunities to space-qualify Canadian technologies or products; however, most companies do not have this type of requirement. In the space industry, flight opportunities are of paramount importance. If a firm has not flown its technology, it will not likely be able to sell it. In fact, flight GOSS GILROY INC. 57 opportunities are considered critical for those in the space segment to develop credibility among contractors. That said, many of the companies that participated in this evaluation had no need for such opportunities due to the type of work they conducted (e.g., ground testing); the type of product they produced; or the stage of development they had attained. In fact, 16 (or 67%) of 2435 case-study key informants indicated that this question was not applicable to them. Of those that said the Agreement has, in fact, generated more flight opportunities, most did not elaborate, but three indicated that they would realize flight opportunities in the future and four indicated that flight opportunities had arisen for them. Of the firms surveyed, two had had one opportunity to space-qualify their technologies or products, and two firms had had two such opportunities while one had an opportunity planned in the near future. Furthermore, one case-study interviewee remarked that the close integration between CSA and ESA has enabled technology developed to a certain Technology Readiness Level (TRL) under funding from one agency to be further developed under funding from the other, with the typical pattern being to bring technology to TRL-3 under CSA and then take it to flight certification under ESA. Q15: To what extent has the number of new companies that participate in the Canada/ESA programs increased? FINDING: The number of participants in the Canada/ESA program since January 2005 has increased by 27 companies and 8 universities. A breakdown of the new contracts by CSA Activity/Thrust is included below. This is a positive result of the program over the last five years. Exhibit 4.6: Contracts by Organizations (Excluding Universities) New to the Canada/ESA Agreement by CSA Activity/Thrust (2000-08) EO GSTP Telecom Gen. Budget & Other Total # of companies 13 3 7 4 27 Value $ 1,548,965 496,324 1,299,341 491,931 3,836,561 Source: Canadian Space Agency, List of ESA Contracts to Canada 2000-2008; GGI’s own calculations. 35 One case study respondent did not answer this question GOSS GILROY INC. 58 In addition, the distribution of contract dollars to Canadian universities is broader than reported in earlier evaluations, as indicated in the following exhibit. Exhibit 4.7: Contracts by Universities New to the Canada/ESA Agreement by Activity/Thrust (2000-08) CSA Activity/Thrust General Budget # of Universities $ of Contract 3 216,439 EO 2 312,911 Science 3 989,922 Total 8 $1,519,273 Source:: Canadian Space Agency, List of ESA Contracts to Canada 2000-2008; GGI’s own calculations. As indicated by Exhibit 4.8 ESA expenditures have remained concentrated with 44.9 to 49.6% of contracts accruing to three firms and over 75% to the top ten contractors in each of the periods 2000-2004 and 2005-2008. Contract awards are somewhat less concentrated over long timeframes as demands and industry-supplier capabilities ebb and flow. GOSS GILROY INC. 59 Exhibit 4.8: Percentages of Contract Funding Received by the Top 3/Top 10 Organizations Previous Evaluations Current Evaluation 1997 2004 Jan. 2000 – Jan. 2005 – Jan. 2000 – Firms Receiving 36 37 38 Evaluation Evaluation Dec. 2004 Dec. 2009 Dec. 2009 Contracts 78 % 43 % 44.9 % 49.6 % 34.8 % Top 3 76.1 % 76.8 % 78.2 % 74.4 % Top 10 Source: Canadian Space Agency, List of ESA Contracts to Canada 2000-2008. GGI calculations. Q16: To what extent have the Canada/ESA contracts contributed to: new business opportunities for Canadian companies in domestic and international markets; increased competitiveness? FINDING: Benefits of the Agreement have been realized in terms of increased competitiveness, follow-on contracts, commercialization prospects, and increased access to new markets. Increased Competitiveness Most of the companies that responded positively to this question (67%, or 16 out of 2439 respondents to the case-study interviewees; and 69%, or 25 out of 3640 survey respondents) believed that Canada/ESA contracts had contributed to their competitiveness in a general (i.e., unspecific) way, although one respondent specified a sector in which his firm had gained a stronger foothold, and another specified that increased competitiveness had resulted from major cost reductions and the ability to spread fixed overhead costs over a larger array of activities. Those who felt that competitiveness was only somewhat increased implied that their level of competitiveness had merely kept pace with the industry. In one case study, add-on contracts have contributed to growth in a particular practice area as well as in the company’s main business line, where the ability to use new and powerful tools has provided the company with a competitive edge, differentiating it from its peers. 36 The top 3 companies were not necessarily the same ones for in each period Evaluation covered period from 1979-80 to 1996-97, a 17-year period. 38 Evaluation covered period from January 1997 until December 2003. 39 One case study respondent did not answer this question 40 Three respondents stated that such opportunities would certainly happen during later stages of their projects, and two respondents stated this question was not applicable, as they had engaged in basic research. 37 GOSS GILROY INC. 60 Follow-on Contract The majority of case-study interviewees (57%, or 13 out of 2341) responded positively to the question of whether follow-on work had resulted from ESA contracts. One company indicated that the experience/credibility it had gained through ESA-funded programs had assisted it in winning contracts all over the world, and another estimated that, for every dollar in ESA contracts it received, it obtained $10 in spinoff work. Besides these respondents, an additional two indicated that the Canada/ESA contracts contributed only indirectly to new business opportunities (e.g., “ESA work looks impressive [to potential clients]”), but that the causal relationship was nonetheless there. Commercialization Prospects Through participation in ESA contracts, one firm was able to accelerate the development of its Internet satellite technology to meet European and worldwide requirements. The developed technology was subsequently commercialized with success. As well, another firm is on the threshold of significant commercial export success (estimated at $2 million in 2009 and $2.75 million in 2010) due to work it contracted through ESA. Access to New Market Fifty-one percent (51%, or 18 out of 3542) of survey respondents reported that their firm had entered new markets as a result of their ESA contract(s), while the rest did not. Q17: To what extent have the Canada/ESA Programs contributed to diversify Canada’s international space partnerships through the establishment of new alliances or the strengthening of existing alliances between Canadian companies and European primes and major sub-contractors? FINDING: Although a significant number of new space collaborations/initiatives have resulted from work attributed to the Canada/ESA Programs, Canadian firms in the space sector have been unable to capitalize more on the ESA contracts due to 41 42 Two case study respondents did not answer this question Four participants reported that this question was not applicable to them, as they were in academia. GOSS GILROY INC. 61 the relatively modest CSA contributions to ESA programs. Many individual firms said that they had built important networks as a result of the Canada/ESA Programs. An overwhelming majority of case-study key informants (88%, or 21 out of 2443 respondents), in particular, could cite partnerships created with academia and/or industry that resulted from ESA projects. Partnerships were created or strengthened with partners in Canada (either other Canadian firms or academia) as well as in Europe (sometimes directly with ESA as well as other European primes or sub-contractors). Likewise, a significant number of survey respondents indicated that new space collaborations/initiatives had resulted from their work with ESA both outside of Europe (42% of survey respondents, or 15 out of 3644 respondents) and within Europe45 (42%, or 15 out of 36 respondents). It must be noted that Canadian firms are restricted in the amount of follow-on ESA work in partnership with European primes because of the relatively small size of the CSA contribution to ESA programs. This is a particular issue for some of the larger firms. ESA representatives would like Canada to be more active players in the emerging network of space industries; as opposed to remaining self contained as has tended to be the dominating Canadian pattern/image. But, they would also like to see the Canadian partners doing more to get business for European partners with NASA. More benefits to Europe would be a win-win situation. Q18: What have been the economic benefits to Canada of the Agreement? FINDINGS: Our analysis of the economic benefits of the CSA-ESA Agreement indicated the following: Follow-on revenues for the period 2000-11 attributable to the ESA contracts by case study participants or questionnaire respondents are documented at $221.5 million. When added to the value of the ESA contracts 2000-2008 ($177.5 million), Canadian firms have benefited or are expected to benefit from $399.0 million in incremental revenues due to the ESA contracts and global follow-on 43 One case study respondent did not answer this question Three respondents did not answer this question 45 Not including follow-on work done with ESA 44 GOSS GILROY INC. 62 work. This implies a revenue multiplier of 2.25 for every ESA contract dollar. After accounting for import leakages, the Input/output analysis estimates direct current dollar GDP impacts at $184 million and total (direct, indirect, and induced) GDP impacts of $367 million yielding a GDP multiplier relative to incremental ESA expenditures of 2.07. Excluding self-employed, ESA employment impacts included 4,055 full-time equivalent (FTE) years consisting of 2,056 direct FTE years, 986 indirect FTE years, and induced of a further 1,013 FTE years. Labour force incomes are augmented by $228.6 million of which $123.9 million was direct, $53.7 million indirect, and $51.0 million induced. In this section, the macro-level economic impacts of the CSA-ESA Agreement are reported. Data for the analysis came from the empirical results from surveys and case studies completed by GGI which were then input into the Statistics Canada National Accounts and Input Output (I/O) Tables. Those results were analyzed at an aggregated level to maintain confidentiality. Utilization of the Statistics Canada I/O tables permitted the evaluation team to estimate the direct, indirect, and induced impacts of ESA expenditures and related industry activities in Canada. The economic analysis described more fully in Appendix G quantifies impacts attributable to the ESA expenditure back in Canada on contracts on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, labor income, and government tax revenues. In this context, the “direct” impacts are the impacts due to ESA expenditures in Canada for contracts (2000-2008) as well as any expected future revenues up to 2011 that Canadian ESA contractors reported as being attributable to the ESA contracts. Impacts may arise from gains in intellectual property, ongoing teaming arrangements, and/or increased market access. The indirect impacts occur in the supply chain from the original ESA contracts and follow on sales as well from the induced impacts, which give rise to incomes earned from the increased employment. The resulting multipliers from both the perspective of CSA expenditures on the Agreement, and ESA contract expenditures in Canada to the end of 2008 are shown in Exhibit 4.9. GOSS GILROY INC. 63 Exhibit 4.9: GDP and Labour Income Impact Multipliers for ESA and CSA Expenditures in Canada to End of 200846 (1,000s $) GDP ESA CDN Contract Expenditures CSA Contribution to ESA Labour Force Income ESA CDN Contract Expenditures47 CSA Contribution to ESA48 Direct Direct and Indirect Direct, Indirect and Induced 1.04 0.71 1.50 1.02 2.07 1.42 0.70 0.48 1.00 0.69 1,29 0.88 The I/O Analysis also estimated impacts on revenues for all levels of government. Of the $259.4 million spent by CSA 2000-2008 by year-end at ESA, $15.3 million accrued to one government or another and at least $6.1 million accrued back to the federal government via import duties and federal commodity taxes. The economic impacts of the Canada-ESA Agreement were established based on reported contracts and follow-on sales, i.e. sales that were over and above the ESA contracts and attributable to the technologies and experience gained from the ESA contracts. In the initial estimates, no extrapolations were made for firms that did not provide financial sales information for either the survey or case studies. Since some case study and survey respondents did not provide financial data on follow on sales, follow-on sales and economic impacts are probably underestimated. Information on follow-on sales, including reports of no follow-on sales, covering the entire period 2000-2011 was provided by 58 establishments. The 58 establishments represented 61.6% of the value of ESA contracts for the 2000-2008 period. The vast majority of this information came from 21 establishments covered through the case studies. The 21 establishments represented 56.9% of the value of ESA contracts. An additional 32 establishments responded to the survey representing 4.6% of ESA contracts. Finally five firms were no longer in business. They accounted for 0.1% of ESA contracts Documented follow-on revenues for the period 2000-11 attributable to the ESA contracts for the case study participants and survey respondents amounted to $221.5 million. When added to the value of the ESA contracts 2000-2008 ($177.5 million), Canadian firms have benefited or are expected to benefit from $399.0 million in 46 Appendix G, Table 13. Impacts multipliers computed based on dividing GDP impacts by the ESA expenditures in Canada 48 Impact multipliers computed based on diving the GDP expenditures by the CSA contribution to ESA 47 GOSS GILROY INC. 64 incremental revenues due to the ESA contracts and follow-on work. This result implies a revenue multiplier of 2.25 for every ESA contract dollar. After accounting for import leakages, the Input/Output analysis estimates direct current dollar GDP impacts at $184 million and total (direct, indirect, and induced) GDP impacts of $367 million yielding a GDP multiplier for direct GDP of 2.00. Excluding the self-employed, ESA employment impacts included 4,055 full-time equivalent years (FTEs) consisting of 2,056 direct FTEs, 986 indirect FTEs, and a further 1,012 induced FTEs . The impact on labour force incomes as a result of the ESA contracts to Canadian firms was to increase them by $228.6 million of which $123.9 million was direct, $53.7 million indirect, and $51.0 million was induced. These estimates conform to TB Guidelines and are very conservative. However, if we had extrapolated the above estimates to cover establishments that did not provide financial data, the estimated direct economic impacts would increase. In addition to the tangible and monetized economic benefits, twenty-one of the 24 respondents to the case studies indicated several examples of where newly developed technologies generated social benefits. In nearly all instances, the infrastructure stemming from ESA assisted projects was necessary to enable, but not sufficient to attain, these benefits. In many of the instances, as illustrated in the following examples, the benefits generated extend beyond Canada’s national borders; thereby, underlining the advantages of international cooperation. Among the case studies there were references to: Tele-health which extends improved healthcare to remote areas in the Canadian north and elsewhere (2); Distance learning to facilitate delivery of training and education to remote sites (3) and stimulate education on the science of space (1); Improved government services to northern Canada including Nunavut (3); Environmental monitoring of airborne transmission via plumes, including the blackening of the Arctic Ice Cap from emissions, as the first line of evidence to curtail such emissions and the resulting rising sea levels and environmental damage (4) – Canada would be well served by further participation; Other improved observation systems designed to assist meteorological services and/or mitigate diverse threats arising from crop failures and other degradation, GOSS GILROY INC. 65 such as remote pipeline inspection and monitoring (6); Improved communication systems (5) resulting in better data on resources (minerals, forestry, fish and crops) (5), Internet (3), emergency communications (2), search and rescue (4), navigation for shipping and avoidance of ice damage to oil and gas drilling and production rigs (5) and road transportation with reduced emissions (2); Prevent environmental damage through the development of more energy efficient technologies (3); and Positioning Canada’s HQP to continue to participate in the space industry (1). Twenty-six completed responses from the questionnaires indicated that 67.1% of new direct FTE years created were for HQPs. It should be noted that the Input/Output Analysis results cover a broader set of employers, since the entire supply chain employment is captured in the direct and indirect impacts. An even broader group is captured in the induced impacts. Direct employment is concentrated in the high-tech industries and professional services such as engineering and medicine, which hire above average levels of HQPs. High-tech industry includes computer and peripheral manufacturing, other communications equipment manufacturing, navigational and measuring medical control instrument manufacturing and, aerospace and aerospace parts. According to the I/O analysis, 97.8% of the total direct employment impact was concentrated in the high tech industries and services. An estimated 81.9% of incremental total direct and indirect employment was concentrated in these sectors as was 72.4% of total employment, which includes direct, indirect and induced. The evidence indicates that ESA expenditures in Canada stimulate supply-chain employment among a relatively high share of HQPs relative to employment shares generated by consumer expenditures in general. Q19: To what extent has the Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement facilitated the obtaining of intelligence on European space-related policies, programs and markets? To what extent is it used for strategic purposes by Canadian government departments/agencies and Canadian industry? FINDING: Intelligence gained through CSA participation in ESA is beneficial for CSA and other government departments in terms of keeping the Canadian government informed on the directions that ESA is taking in research and development in space technologies. However, Canadian companies have not all GOSS GILROY INC. 66 uniformly benefited from the intelligence-gathering process regarding trends in the European market conditions. Many of the companies interviewed for this evaluation indicated that intelligence on European market conditions is an important benefit of participating in ESA, and that such intelligence has been used fairly frequently for strategic purposes by Canadian government departments/ agencies and Canadian industry. However, some people specifically desired that the process for obtaining intelligence become more systematic, while others generally noted that intelligence could be better and more plentiful. The majority of survey respondents (71%, or 12 of 17 respondents) and of case-study interviewees (58%, or 14 of 24), who had obtained intelligence49, reported benefiting from it, in spite of an impression that the process could be improved. Respondents believe that the Agreement has helped Canadian industry players learn about the European market, in general, and has given them insight into the way European companies operate, in particular. According to CSA program staff, there is no formal process for collecting, analyzing and disseminating intelligence gained through interactions with ESA, but rather it is done on an opportunistic basis. However, market intelligence gained from the SatCom and ExoMars programs have been key to forming alliances and links to prime contractors. By virtue of the agreement, Canada has had the privilege of having delegates participate on the Program Board and technical sub-committees for Earth Observations, which has given Canada access to information on future European missions and advance notice of RFPs coming “down the pipe”. These are a good heads-up for Canadian firms to prepare bids. Canadian industry thereby obtains links to European industry and hence partnerships have developed outside of the ESA. Finally, it is worth noting that through the privilege of having delegates on the program board and technical subcommittees, Canadian delegates are able to obtain and assess good information on future potential projects and programs according to more than one CSA representative. Examples cited included the Satcom program, where Canadian involvement on the technical committees and knowledge gained of the Satcom plans, assisted in supporting the formation of alliances and forming 49 52% (17/33) of respondents from contracted firms had obtained intelligence through their participation in the Canada-ESA agreement; 48% (16/33) had not, 3 said this question was not applicable as they had not tried gathering any intelligence, 2 said they did not know the answer to the question, while 1 did not answer this question. GOSS GILROY INC. 67 linkages to prime contractors. Another example of the use of intelligence gained for pre-positioning was the Exo-Mars program. Q20: To what extent has Canada’s other international S&T objectives (e.g., climate change) benefited from technologies or information originating from the Canada/ESA agreement? FINDING: Several of Canada’s S&T objectives have benefited from technologies or information originating from the Canada/ESA Agreement. The following Canadian S&T objectives50 have benefited from technologies or information originating from the Canada/ESA Agreement: OBJECTIVE: To direct resources to priority areas where Canada can build global research and commercial leadership: environmental science and technologies, natural resources and energy, health and related life sciences and technologies, and information and communications technologies (ICT). Projects related to the Canada/ESA Agreement have touched on two of these areas, in particular: environmental science and technologies and ICT. With regards to environmental science, a few of the case-study projects have produced significant quantities of data via earth-observation activities that pertain to climate change, allowing Canada to build global research leadership in this area. (ENVISAT, in particular, has provided access to data for monitoring climate change.) With regards to ICT, Internet/broadband communications have been improved as a result of the Agreement, especially in northern Canada. In terms of data access interests, the Sentinel missions of GMES are expected to generate a lot of data required for operational monitoring of environment, state of vegetation, coastal ocean colour, etc. The government departments such as NRCan, MSC/EC, DFO, CFS, CIS and AAFC are very interested in receiving this data. Through Canada’s current participation in ESA GMES Space Component, it will be possible to arrange a direct reception over Canada for those data of Canadian interest as it is done currently for the ENVISAT ASAR and MERIS data. To strengthen Canada’s ties to the global supply of ideas, talent, and technology. The Agreement has strengthened Canada’s ties to the global supply of ideas, talent, 50 Government of Canada. Industry Canada. 2007. Mobilizing Science and Technology to Canada's Advantage — 2007. GOSS GILROY INC. 68 and technology by providing access to the European scientific establishment; enabling Canadian firms to partner with European firms; and giving Canada a voice in the international space-related policy-making process. To ensure that federal departments and agencies have access to the S&T capacity required to fulfill their important policy and regulatory mandates in areas such as health, environment, and safety. Projects related to the Canada/ESA Agreement have improved access to safety-related science, in particular. Canada’s participation in the GMES – Europe’s contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems – will provide, inter-alia, policy makers with an instrument to monitor environmental laws and treaties in the area of climate change and other EO-related matters/environmental concerns and thus contribute to the fulfillment of environment-related policy and regulatory mandates in Canada. Finally, GMES will also provide for better data for climate change, natural hazards, water, etc., which, in turn, will help ensure that federal departments and agencies have access to the S&T capacity required to fulfill their policy and regulatory mandates in areas such as health, environment, and safety. Most of the environmental issues and impacts addressed by ESA are international in their origin. The international abatement of environmental releases will result in international benefits in which Canada and other nations will partake. Consequently, ESA’s related space initiatives warrant international attention. Q21: To what extent has the CSA influenced ESA programming? FINDINGS: While it is not possible to know for certain if ESA programming would be different if Canada had never participated in ESA, it is generally believed that Canada is a reasonably effective, well-respected contributor to ESA. Furthermore, CSA adds substantial value to ESA decision-making by supplying a politically neutral perspective. It is not possible to know for certain if ESA programming would be different if Canada had never participated in ESA. However, ESA interviewees generally believe that Canada is well respected and that there is genuine interest in Canada’s views. Canada is considered to be a reasonably effective contributor to ESA technical development in core areas where Canadian expertise is recognized. Furthermore, key informant interviewees remarked that CSA adds value to ESA decision-making by supplying a politically neutral perspective. Canada only has one GOSS GILROY INC. 69 vote at ESA meetings, but Canada does have some influence in areas where Canada is technically strong (i.e., robotics). Interviewees commented that, in the absence of Canadian participation, European companies would likely develop the necessary technologies on their own, without relying on Canadian expertise. However, as Canadians are already in a position to provide certain in-demand technologies, ESA utilizes Canadian capacities. Interviewees with the European Space Agency revealed that the Canadian delegation always makes a very positive contribution, playing a constructive role on boards and councils. It was also noted that ESA seeks Canada’s voice and that Canadian delegates and staff participate over and above our simple national interest. GOSS GILROY INC. 70 4.4 Cost Effectiveness and Alternatives Q22: What percentage of the CSA/ESA program budget is allocated to administration and overhead? Is it reasonable? Q23: Is the percentage of ESA General Budget Support paid by Canada reasonable given the dollars it invests in other ESA programs? FINDING: The part of the CSA contribution to ESA which is allocated by ESA to its overheads was found to be relatively high (estimated to be about 35% - see below), due to the addition of the required General Budget Support component, and the overhead charge on each of the optional programs. Because the CSA budget available for programming, after paying the mandatory General Budget Support for program activities is limited, the total funds paid into overhead is quite high. As the General Budget Support payments are fixed, an increase in the Agreement funding (which would be directed towards programs) would reduce the overhead component as a share of total Canadian contribution. The General Budget Support component paid by Canada not only is a mandatory requirement to participate in the Agreement but also permits Canada an important seat at the table at ESA meetings at all levels. Our analysis indicated that currency exchange costs for the contribution to ESA (paid in Euros) which is substantially returned to Canada through contracts from ESA to Canadian companies consumes additional program overhead due to the cost of converting from Canadian dollars to Euros to contribute to ESA, and the need of Canadian firms to then convert the ESA funds back into Canadian dollars. The Contribution to ESA includes both funding of direct program expenditures as well as a contribution to ESA overheads of at both the general level, and for each mandatory and optional program to which Canada subscribes. The first level is the General Budget Support, which amounts to $64.6 million or 21.9% of the CSA contribution of $295.4 million (2000-2009). Part of this contribution is allocated to contracts to Canadian firms. The second level is overhead for the optional programs, which ranges from 11.5% 53.2% with an average of 25.1%. The table below indicates the minimum, maximum GOSS GILROY INC. 71 and mean percentages of ESA program budget allocated to administration and overhead for various ESA programs. As a result the overhead component of the CSA contribution to ESA will average about 35%. This assumes that about 25% of our contribution is allocated to direct overheads for the mandatory and optional programs, and about half of the payment to General Budget support (or about 10%) can be considered overhead. . This estimate does not include any of the administrative overheads to manage the program at CSA. Exhibit 4.10: Percentage of ESA Program Budget Allocated to Overhead51 Program Activities Earth Observation Science and Exploration Satellite Communications General Support Technology Average Overhead* Min 21.3% Max 38.4% Mean 31.2% Min 18.0% Max 38.4% Mean 22.9% Min 11.5% Max 53.2% Mean 23.9% Min 20.0% Max 20.0% Mean 20.0% 25.1% * Overhead = 1-Development Costs/Total Expenditures Source: European Space Agency. No date. Indicative Overhead % by Optional Programme Elements. The question of the overhead associated with the contribution to the CSA/ESA Agreement was presented to the interviewees. The question provoked mixed results from key informants. According to some interviewees, overhead is high, due to the large amount required for the General Budget Support requirement and the limited funds then left for investment in optional programs. However, each program also has its own overhead structure that determines the funds available for contracted work. Overhead is considered more reasonable at the level of individual programs, according to these interviewees. Other interviewees remarked that overhead is reasonable overall, but that there may be issues at the level of individual programs. 51 NB: No date range indicated in the source for this table. GOSS GILROY INC. 72 In any case, most interviewees who were able to answer this question believed that entrance to the “European [space] club” is worth the current cost of overhead. Furthermore, the fact that various Canadian companies get significant follow-on work from the CSA Agreement with ESA and associated financial contributions makes the overhead more palatable than the figures alone would imply. While some key informants found the percentage to be high, others commented that Canada is “getting a good deal compared to other member states, given its industrial returns.” Members of the latter group pointed out that, given the tremendously high cost of obtaining flight opportunities, “if it takes a few million dollars to obtain access to space missions, then it is worth it. You have to look beyond just the dollars.” Interviewees also indicated that the percentage of the ESA general budget paid by Canada was a small price to pay, given that Canada’s voice is taken seriously at ESA meetings. Anything less than Canada’s current contribution to the general budget might not be considered credible by Member States. Q24: How cost-effective have ESA contracts been to help Canadian companies penetrate the European/international space market, as compared to other CSA technology-oriented programs? FINDING: The primary finding here is that penetration of the European space market for Canadian firms is premised strongly on Canada being a member of ESA, which is the major contractor in Europe for space related work. Canada can also work through bilateral agreements. Since the ESA Agreement has been Canada’s main entry into the market it is difficult to assess other options. Our assessment indicated that membership in ESA is an important pre-condition to participation in ESA run space programs. At present, there are no other CSA programs targeted at positioning Canadian firms in the European space market. Another option would be to carry out bilateral arrangements with some of the countries in Europe that have their own space programs or with ESA itself. However, most countries work through the ESA programs, with ESA as the procurement agent. Interviews with CSA officials indicated that working through ESA on early-stage R&D programs is the most effective way to gain entry into European space contracts. Revenues earned by Canadian firms resulting from ESA contracts and the follow-on work obtained from ESA contracts provides a quantitative means of measuring the GOSS GILROY INC. 73 cost-effectiveness of the ESA Program. The fact that total sales generated by Canadian firms as a result of reported ESA contracts and follow-on work of $399.0 Million was larger than the $259.4 Million CSA contributed to ESA indicates that the Agreement has been a cost-effective means of providing a pathway for Canadian companies to penetrate the European/International market (as stated earlier, without the ESA Agreement, the evaluation team believes very little of this work would have been obtained by Canadian firms). The team’s found that a total of 4,055 FTEs (including direct, indirect and induced jobs) have been created from the above ESA and follow-on contracts. Q25: Are there more cost-effective space programming/investment options available for reaching the objectives pursued with the Canada/ESA Cooperation? FINDING: There are no more cost-effective means of developing the technologies/capacity that have been developed through contracts with ESA; however, there are issues that make this investment less cost-effective than it could be. There are a limited number of options for developing Canadian technologies/capacity in space. The first option is to fund Canadian-based programs that are made in Canada, and that are solely Canadian sponsored programs. The second option is to fund bilateral programs, which involve partnerships with other countries to enlarge the scope of the Canadian effort. The third option is to engage in broader multilateral programs such as the International Space Station or ESA. While the first two options may appear less costly than the third option of an Agreement with ESA, they have the disadvantage of limiting the scope of the programs that can be undertaken, as the overall Canadian budget will be significantly smaller that the multilateral programs available through ESA. Secondly, through the Canada/ESA Agreement, the potential for alliances, technology transfer and for exposure to new technologies and trends in space are much higher. Therefore, the evaluation team believes that a multilateral approach, such as ESA is much more cost effective in the long-term development of the sector. This was validated in the surveys and interviews: The majority of respondents, i.e., 63% of survey respondents and 58% of casestudy interviewees, could not suggest more cost-effective means of developing the GOSS GILROY INC. 74 technologies/capacity that have been developed through contracts with ESA. However, 29% of survey respondents and key informants mentioned issues that make this pursuing ESA business costly. This includes excessive paperwork (“there is a mountain of documentation that small companies must produce for ESA”) and the cost and time needed to travel to Europe for marketing and for the actual work on ESA contracts. Of the 29% of survey respondents who offered suggestions on how to improve cost-effectiveness, five stated that investing directly in Canadian R&D projects would be more beneficial; while others suggested that small contracts be exempted from the burden of excessive “red tape.” Many informants pointed to bilateral agreements as an alternative and less costly vehicles for reaching the objectives pursued with the Cooperation; however, these interviewees also noted that bilateral agreements would not permit Canadian firms to compete on ESA contracts. Additionally, interviewees remarked that bilateral agreements alone would not allow Canada to influence international space policy as the nation's participation in ESA has done. In summary, bilateral agreements may be less costly, but they do not permit Canadian firms to directly participate in ESA sponsored contracts. Therefore, bilateral agreements would not offer Canada access to the ESA science and technology and to the broader opportunities that can be derived from joint ventures and alliances with European firms engaged in ESA. Bilateral agreements involve higher risks for CSA as CSA would then be responsible for the delivery and integration of the subsystems. Q26: What would be the impact of discontinuing the Agreement? FINDING: Discontinuation of the Agreement would result in the severance of industry opportunities to contract with ESA and thereby would reduce potential opportunities and partnerships with the European space industry. It would also communicate the message that Canada is not interested in participating in international collaboration in the space sector. Finally, some Canadian companies would be forced to move research facilities to Europe to maintain their positioning in the market. Respondents answered this question from both a macro, i.e., industry perspective, and a micro, i.e., firm perspective. At the macro level, interviewees almost unanimously responded that the industry would be hurt by the discontinuation of the Agreement. Specifically, many respondents indicated that discontinuation would result in both the severance of some ties with European industry and the loss of opportunities – for GOSS GILROY INC. 75 example, opportunities to deal with European suppliers; to participate in large-scale programs, and to access satellite systems; as well as opportunities to participate in major missions – by Canadian companies. “Canada would be out of the club,” in the words of one respondent; “[to discontinue the Agreement] would isolate us in the world of space.” In order to avoid such isolation, Canada would need to turn its focus to bilateral agreements, according to respondents, forging closer ties with NASA, and partnering with other national space agencies (e.g., Asian and perhaps Australian agencies). However, interviewees believed that even new relationships such as these could not replace the current ties with the EU, which exist largely as a result of the Agreement. Moreover, interviewees pointed out that, because international relationships with NASA would likely be complicated by security concerns, a strategy for the Canadian space industry that is dependent on NASA might be a tenuous one. Several key informants noted that the ties that have been forged could not be replaced with new ties to the United States. Respondents also observed that discontinuation of the Agreement would go against recent trends in industry. Over the last decade, the forces of globalization have increasingly influenced the scope and scale of space-related research. Correspondingly, international collaboration has become an essential means of accessing the most current knowledge and expertise available – especially for medium-sized countries such as Canada. It follows, then, that a discontinuation of international collaboration – such as that facilitated by the Agreement – would mean a loss of access to intelligence and emerging technologies, which, in turn, would diminish Canada’s competitiveness in the sector. A discontinuation would also prevent Canada from reaping the economies of scale that typically result from international alliances. The majority of case-study interviewees (86%) and survey respondents (58%) indicated that a discontinuation of the Agreement would impact their firms negatively. Some noted that their firms’ long-term competitive advantage, in general, would suffer, while others pointed to specific hardships that might occur as a result of a discontinuation, such as downsizing52 and probable loss of contracts.53 A couple of small firms, in particular, noted that they would not be able to afford to partake of 52 Sixty-six percent (66%, or 25/38) of survey respondents indicated that their firm would be smaller without the contract(s) they have as a result of the Agreement; while 11% (4/38) said their firm would probably not exist. 53 Most survey respondents felt that their company would not have had contracts with ESA without Canada’s participation in the agreement: 67% (20/30) said they would not have obtained contracts, while 17% (5/30) said maybe they would have won contracts. GOSS GILROY INC. 76 major space missions without a vehicle such as the Agreement. Additionally, two respondents said that they would have to move much of their operations/centers of activity to Europe as a result of a discontinuation in order to retain their markets. CSA interviewees also pointed out that approximately 25 Canadian jobs at ESA would disappear if the Agreement were not sustained. This would have some negative consequences on Canada’s ability to obtain intelligence on technology and market trends in the European space sector. A cessation of the Agreement may communicate a message that Canada is now less interested in participating in international space projects. Interviewees from the European Space Agency noted that, although Canada only contributes €20 million to the ESA’s overall, a withdrawal by Canada would send a negative signal, as Canada’s participation is “key” for the development of some of the main elements at the program level, namely – for the development of the capsule to transport humans and cargo; and for moon exploration. GOSS GILROY INC. 77 5.0 Summary of Findings and Conclusions 5.1 Rationale and Relevance The access that the Canada-ESA Agreement bestows on Canada satisfies needs beyond those that are scientific in scope; it also satisfies needs that are political (with respect to Canadian-European relations), informational (in areas related to the Internet and multimedia, earth observation, search and rescue, and resource management) and industrial (developing new technologies and assessing new markets). These needs exist today as much or more than they did when the Agreement was renewed in 2000, making the Agreement a highly relevant collaboration. The rationale for continuing the agreement derives from several factors. Given its relatively small budget, the activities that the CSA can pursue are relatively small in scope compared to those pursued by ESA. In the coming years, ESA will be defining and pursuing its flagship missions, which will be very large endeavors requiring the participation of many countries. These upcoming missions represent tremendous opportunity for Canada. The Agreement is also important for Canadian SMEs engaged in technologies that are applicable in the space sector, especially to firms looking to test their technologies in space. The Agreement allows Canadian firms to be at the forefront of technology development and provides Canadian SMEs working in the sector with advantageous access to ESA. Additionally, the ability to list ESA as one of their clients provides Canadian firms with a competitive advantage that has helped them win business with prospective clients other than ESA and CSA. As well, federal organizations such as the CCRS and Environment Canada have information needs that are satisfied by technologies developed under the ESA program. These needs are specifically in areas related to the Internet, earth observation, search and rescue, and resource management. Additionally, the Agreement is an important instrument for reinforcing CanadaEuropean relations. The discontinuance of the Agreement would be seen negatively by the European participants in ESA, not only because of the technical value of Canada’s participation, but also because of the diplomatic message that it would send. GOSS GILROY INC. 78 Finally, the potential for incremental revenues arising from the ESA contracts from 2000 to 2011 amounted to several times the original contract dollars spent by ESA, based on the analysis conducted by the evaluation team. Thus, the rationale for continuing the agreement derives from economic reasons as well. 5.2 Design and Delivery With regards to the design and delivery, the evaluation team found that CSA is not communicating with Canadian firms as effectively and consistently as it could. Interviewees specifically indicated that, although the Agency takes care to respond to the questions and concerns posed by industry, it makes insufficient attempt to proactively communicate with firms about opportunities. It is not too surprising, then, that organizations in the sector specifically requested that the process for obtaining intelligence on the European market via CSA become more systematic; and that the information itself be improved in quality and quantity. Major challenges faced by Canadian firms in trying to access ESA contracts relate primarily to the 1) relatively limited and sometimes uncertain Canadian funding of ESA programs;2) complexity and difficulty of the ESA bidding process; and 3) distance from Europe. Given the “pay-to-play” nature of ESA programs, however, the unavailability of Canadian funds appears to be the most significant obstacle to Canadian industry. Some interviewees contend that the fact that insufficient funding hampers Canadian participation in ESA programs sometimes results in innovative Canadian ideas being exploited by international competitors. 5.3 Results It is not possible to know for certain if ESA programming would be different if Canada had never participated in ESA; however, it is generally believed that, within the scope of what it can do, Canada is a reasonably effective, well-respected contributor to ESA that adds substantial value to ESA decision-making. With regards to return on investment, GGI found that contracts awarded to Canada have achieved an overall return coefficient of 1.09, as calculated by ESA.54 This exceeds the .94 minimum overall return coefficient (Approved by the ESA Council) 54 European Space Agency, Industrial Policy Committee. (April 2009). Geographical Distribution of Contracts, Situation as per 31 December 2008. NB: No explanation is given in this document regarding ESA’s methodology for calculating return coefficient. GOSS GILROY INC. 79 and places Canada second among all ESA member states in terms of return coefficient, indicating a strong return on Canada’s financial contribution to ESA in terms of contract dollars for Canadian firms. Also indicating a strong return for Canada is the fact that the country has received nearly 68% of its contribution to ESA back in contracts since 2000. Returns to Canada also occur through increased numbers of HQPs employed in Canada due to the ESA contracts. Furthermore, the experience and relationships developed in ESA contracts have led firms to win nonESA work requiring the hiring of additional persons. This outcome is in line with Canada's S&T objective to enhance opportunities for S&T graduates. Unlike returns measured in terms of dollars and HQPs, it is difficult to measure the extent to which the Canada/ESA programs have contributed to enhancing the existing technological and innovation capabilities of the companies that received ESA contracts. And while some of the companies have used the Canada/ESA programs merely to increase their technological/innovation capabilities within their corecompetence areas, others have gone a step further, using the Canada/ESA programs as leverage to increase their capabilities outside their core areas. In any case, the majority of firms that contributed to the evaluation have had some opportunity to develop and/or demonstrate advanced technologies. Still other benefits of the Agreement have been realized in terms of maintaining or increasing overall competitiveness; follow-on contracts (with ESA as well as with NASA); commercialization prospects (especially in the area of internet satellite technology); and increased access to new markets. The question as to whether significant numbers of Canadian companies in the space sector will obtain follow-on work outside of ESA as a result of partnerships with European firms still remains to be seen. Although a number of new space collaborations have resulted from work attributed to the Canada/ESA programs, there have not been as many alliances between Canadian and European firms as there perhaps could have been. That said, many individual firms indicated that they have nurtured important partnerships – some old, others new – as a result of the Canada/ESA Programs. This outcome is in line with Canada’s S&T objective to strengthen the country’s ties to the global supply of ideas, talent, and technology. Our analysis of the economic benefits of the CSA-ESA Agreement indicated the following: GOSS GILROY INC. 80 Canadian firms responding to our surveys reported that have benefited or are expected to benefit from $399.0 million in incremental revenues due to the ESA contracts and follow-on work. This implies a revenue multiplier of 2.25 for every ESA contract dollar After accounting for import leakages, the Input/output analysis estimates direct current dollar GDP impacts at $184 million and total (direct, indirect, and induced) GDP impacts of $367 million yielding a GDP multiplier of 2.00, Excluding self-employed, ESA employment impacts included 4,055 full-time equivalent years (FTEs) consisting of 2,056 direct FTEs, 986 indirect FTEs, and a further 1,013 of induced of FTEs55. Labour force incomes are augmented $228.6 million of which $123.9 million was direct, $53.7 million indirect, and $51.0 million induced. These estimates conform to Treasury Board Guidelines and are very conservative. However, if we had extrapolated the above estimates to cover establishments that did not provide financial data, the estimated direct economic impacts would increase. Indeed, although all ESA contracts were taken into account in those estimates, only 58 establishments which received 61,6% of the ESA contracts (in dollars) provided information on follow-on sales. Additional details on this analysis can be found in Appendix G. 5.4 Recommendations Based on our conclusions, the evaluation team recommends the following: RECOMMENDATION 1: CSA should seek renewal of the Agreement for an additional 10-year period. If feasible, additional resources should be allocated to the Agreement either from an increase in the allocation of Government of Canada resources or through a reallocation from other CSA programs. 55 This recommendation is based on the strategic importance of the Agreement at both the political as well as the industrial level. The Agreement permits the Canadian space sector, as well as the Canadian government to maintain a window on technological advances in space, and upcoming programs that could be of interest to Canadian firms. It also provides credibility to Canada that assists it obtaining Self employed are not taken into account by Statistics Canada. GOSS GILROY INC. 81 contracts with NASA and with other international space programs. Finally, CSA expenditures alone cannot ensure the array of program opportunities and linkage to the base of R&D available within ESA. RECOMMENDATION 2: Clarify the role of ESA within the long-term space plan in order to guide industry on Canadian priorities in space, including ESA participation. RECOMMENDATION 3: Develop & publicize a more coherent set of policies & programs for supporting organizations in the sector & developing new entrants. Many of the SMEs that are trying to access contracts from ESA indicated a lack of information on CSA’s policies and priorities with respect to ESA programs. They also are not always aware of what funding is available for the different program areas supported by CSA. RECOMMENDATION 4: Develop a coherent plan for communicating targeted ESA industrial opportunities. The newsletter on Earth Observation opportunities and developments could serve as a starting point for development of an appropriate communication format. RECOMMENDATION 5: Continue to monitor the impacts, if any, of the 2007 European Space Policy and EU trends on Canada, and, if necessary, take steps to mitigate any adverse effects. CSA along with DFAIT should also undertake a policy review of Canada’s role in ESA, given the changes occurring in Europe as a result of the 2007 European Space Policy. A review of the EU Space Policy (2007) and trends in Europe with respect to the EU indicates a growing linkage of ESA with EU long-term plans and strategies. This poses a potential threat to Canada as a non-EU member. Although the limited interviews with ESA representatives indicated that there is no immediate concern that Canada may be excluded, the gradual increase in the number of ESA members and the declining importance of the Canadian contribution both financially and technically could lead to Canada being marginalized at some point in the future. This could have a negative impact on Canada’s ability to participate in ESA, and the extent to which Canada can participate in the downstream implementation of the prototypes and developments funded under ESA but implemented through other more commercially GOSS GILROY INC. 82 oriented European agencies. Monitoring these developments will be an important component of CSA’s representation in Europe. GOSS GILROY INC. 83 Appendix A: Expenditures and Commitments GOSS GILROY INC. 84 CSA’s Expenditures and Commitments per Fiscal Year, by Program Area $000s TB-2000 TB-2005 Earth Observation TB-2000 TB-2005 Exploration TB-2000 TB-2005 Microgravity TB-2000 TB-2005 Science * TB-2000 TB-2005 Science & Exploration TB-2000 TB-2005 Telecom TB-2000 TB-2005 Navigation TB-2000 TB-2005 Satellite Communications TB-2000 TB-2005 General Budget TB-2000 TB-2005 Technology TB-2000 TB-2005 Generic Space Activities TB-2000 TB-2005 TOTAL EXPENDITURES OUTSTANDING COMMITMENTS GRAND 1/1/001/4/04- 1st Five 1/1/051/4/09- 2nd Five 10 YEAR 1/1/10O/S 31/3/00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 31/12/04 Years 31/3/05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 31/12-09 Years TOTAL 31/3/10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Commit. TOTAL (A) (B) (C)=(A+B) (D) (E)=(C+D) 4,213 7,589 6,147 10,985 9,205 6,945 4,290 9,151 6,464 3,916 2,764 1,320 879 1,904 958 8 45,084 27,905 72,989 3,749 76,738 2,141 3,431 3,338 4,648 2,277 1,518 7,357 10,324 10,449 7,233 3,925 311 219 1,965 4,328 15,835 15,835 47,629 63,464 4,213 7,589 6,147 10,985 408 408 408 - 9,205 884 884 884 - 6,945 955 955 955 - 45,084 2,247 2,247 2,247 - 5,054 5,054 2,568 2,568 7,622 - 408 884 9,138 12,268 9,138 12,268 841 261 841 261 9,978 12,529 - 955 4,792 4,792 1,618 1,618 6,411 - 7,622 4,812 4,812 1,045 1,045 5,857 - 9,978 6,088 6,088 2,128 2,128 8,216 - - - - 3,951 3,951 3,951 - 5,457 5,457 791 791 6,248 - 3,951 3,090 3,090 3,090 - 6,248 4,976 4,976 4,976 - 3,090 4,976 5,857 8,216 6,728 11,254 18,813 11,254 18,813 19,626 19,626 29,587 29,587 29,346 29,346 GOSS GILROY INC. 12,529 5,451 5,451 1,277 1,277 6,728 - 4,290 944 944 944 11,292 409 483 892 2,254 2,254 409 2,737 9,895 122 2,231 2,353 2,553 2,553 929 929 122 5,713 7,254 7 3,016 3,023 1,971 1,971 1,865 1,865 7 6,852 7,412 15 4,327 4,342 2,405 2,405 1,484 1,484 15 8,216 3,597 3 3,624 3,627 1,163 1,163 512 512 3 5,299 43,740 556 13,681 14,237 8,092 8,092 7,988 7,988 556 29,761 88,824 2,803 13,681 16,484 8,092 8,092 7,988 7,988 2,803 29,761 2,397 2 2,416 2,418 775 775 341 341 2 3,532 9,261 1 8,317 8,318 1,344 1,344 191 191 1 9,852 11,282 2 7,809 7,811 1,847 1,847 2 9,656 10,457 5,138 5,138 1,284 1,284 6,422 7,233 4,470 4,470 575 575 5,045 3,925 5,193 5,193 5,193 311 6,284 6,284 6,284 219 4,577 4,577 4,577 1,965 1,143 1,143 1,143 4,328 446 446 446 51,378 5 45,793 45,798 5,825 5,825 532 532 5 52,150 140,202 2,808 59,474 62,282 13,917 13,917 8,520 8,520 2,808 81,911 2,247 40,660 40,660 6,079 6,079 46,739 - 944 864 1,759 2,623 811 811 1,675 1,759 3,146 1,600 5,051 6,651 1,465 1,465 3,065 5,051 5,835 1,290 6,397 7,687 2,740 591 3,331 4,030 6,988 6,859 712 8,216 8,928 3,980 826 4,806 4,692 9,042 8,231 289 5,271 5,560 5,302 48 5,350 5,591 5,319 5,302 156 1,856 2,012 412 2,129 2,541 568 3,985 30,317 4,911 28,550 33,461 14,710 3,594 18,304 19,621 32,144 32,564 45,571 28,550 74,121 20,788 3,594 24,382 66,360 32,144 3,534 104 1,235 1,339 1,694 1,694 104 2,929 9,853 6 7,358 7,364 888 888 6 8,246 9,658 1,030 8,212 9,242 862 862 1,030 9,074 6,422 2,361 5,769 8,130 416 416 2,361 6,185 5,045 4,475 4,475 97 97 4,572 5,193 3,124 3,124 3,124 6,284 2,490 2,490 2,490 4,577 2,535 2,535 2,535 1,143 - 446 - 52,155 3,501 35,198 38,699 3,957 3,957 3,501 39,155 84,719 49,072 63,748 112,820 20,788 7,551 28,339 69,861 71,299 6,411 3,373 3,373 3,373 - 46,739 27,790 27,790 4,450 4,450 32,240 - 3,434 3,452 3,452 189 189 3,641 - 8,116 6,404 6,404 976 976 6,404 976 11,018 6,826 6,826 1,887 1,887 6,826 1,887 13,734 6,660 6,660 678 678 6,660 678 10,910 7,986 7,986 321 321 7,986 321 4,553 4,472 4,472 332 332 4,472 332 51,765 35,800 35,800 189 4,194 4,383 35,989 4,194 98,504 63,590 63,590 4,639 4,194 8,833 68,229 4,194 3,033 221 221 221 8,252 1,097 1,097 1,097 10,104 1,181 1,181 1,181 8,546 693 693 693 4,572 - 3,124 - 2,490 - 2,535 - - - 42,656 3,192 3,192 3,192 141,160 63,590 63,590 4,639 7,386 12,025 68,229 7,386 3,373 32,240 3,641 7,380 8,713 7,338 8,307 4,804 40,183 72,423 221 1,097 1,181 693 - - - - - - 3,192 75,615 17,684 126,310 9,606 2,703 17,684 126,310 12,309 19,029 10,905 29,934 17,442 18,019 35,461 15,275 19,910 35,185 16,356 18,504 34,860 6,363 84,071 11,893 81,934 18,256 166,005 210,381 81,934 292,315 985 1,911 8,200 26,552 9,185 28,463 1,990 30,235 32,225 2,369 23,749 26,118 16,850 12,242 16,850 12,242 9,085 9,085 7,331 7,331 3,108 3,108 7,255 4,774 142,126 4,774 149,381 217,636 224,060 441,696 85 Activities by Period Excluding General Budget % of CSA Expenditures First Five Years TB-2000 TB-2005 TOTAL EO 45.8% SE 2.3% SC 47.4% GTA 4.5% 45.8% 2.3% 47.4% 4.5% EO 57.8% 19.3% 33.6% SE 1.2% 36.3% 23.3% SC 40.6% 39.2% 39.8% GTA 0.4% 5.1% 3.4% EO 51.7% 33.5% 34.4% SE 0.1% 36.7% 34.9% SC 48.3% 27.5% 28.6% GTA 0.0% 2.2% 2.1% Second Five Years TB-2000 TB-2005 TOTAL OS TB-2000 TB-2005 TOTAL EO: Earth Observation SE: Space Science and Exploration SC: Satellite Communiactions GTA: Generic Technological Activities GOSS GILROY INC. 86 Appendix B: Bibliography GOSS GILROY INC. 87 Bibliography March 2000. Canada/European Space Agency Cooperation Agreement: Proposal to Treasury Board. Saint-Hubert, Quebec/Ottawa, Ontario 2002. Logic Model – Entente ESA-Canada. 2005. Contributions under the Canada/European Space Agency (ESA) Cooperation Agreement: Proposal to Treasury Board. Saint-Hubert, Quebec/Ottawa, Ontario April 2006. Norwegian statement from the 187th Council meeting on the item “Towards a transition in the ESA-EC relationship for GNSS.” October 2006. Notes on a possible informal meeting with the European Commission on Galileo Activities. 2007. Tableau récapitulative commenté des actions de suivi. May 2007. Notes on the meeting with EC GMES Bureau. Brussels, Belgium. November 2007. Statement by the European Commission Services on the GMES Space Component. Brussels, Belgium. November 2008. Point of contact – ESA Summative Evaluation. January 2009. Canadian Space Industry – Major Ownership Transactions. No date. Autorisation – ESA. No date. Cooperation Agreement between the Government of Canada and the European Space Agency. Beland, Sylvie. May 2008. Cda-EU relations - key messages. Burbidge, Mark. No date. Invite to Canada. Brussels, Belgium. Burbidge, Mark and Beland, Sylvie. May 2006. Final Report: Mid-Term Review of Canada-European Space Agency Cooperation Agreement (2000-2010). Longueuil, Quebec. Burbidge, Mark and Beland, Sylvie. February 2007. Meeting between CSA, Foreign Affairs Canada and the European Commission. Brussels, Belgium. GOSS GILROY INC. 88 DB Geoservices Inc. November 2004. Evaluation of Canada/European Space Agency (ESA) Cooperation Agreement: Data Collection and Analysis. Dordain, Jean-Jacques. October 2006. Agenda 2011. Dordain, Jean-Jacques. November/December 2006. Creating a global space agency. ESA Today. Dotto, Lydia. May 2002. Canada and The European Space Agency - Three Decades of Cooperation. Noordwijk, the Netherlands. European Space Agency. January 2009. ESA Budget for 2009/ESA Budget by Programme (2009). Available from http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/corporate/ ESA_2009_Budgetsweb.pdf. Retrieved June 3, 2009. European Commission. Bringing space down to earth. February 2008. European Space Agency. 2002. ESA Review – CSA Core Function Sectors. European Space Agency. 2002. Minutes of Meeting: ESA Review – Industry. European Space Agency. 2002. Minutes of Meeting: Government Departments. European Space Agency. September 2005. Convention for the Establishment of a European Space Agency. Noordwijk, the Netherlands. European Space Agency Council. October 2006. Declaration on the European Earth Watch Programme. Paris, France. European Space Agency Council. November 2006. Revised Declaration covering the GalileoSat Programme. Paris, France. European Space Agency Council. February 2007. Declaration on the European Programme for Life and Physical Sciences and Applications in Space (ELIPS). Paris, France. European Space Agency Council. September 2007. Declaration on the European GNSS Evolution Programme. Paris, France. European Space Agency Council. October 2007. Declaration on the GMES Space Component Programme. Paris, France. GOSS GILROY INC. 89 European Space Agency Council. February 2008. Declaration on the European Space Exploration Programme – Aurora. Paris, France. European Space Agency Council. May 2008. Revised Declaration covering the Earth Observation Envelope Programme. Paris, France. European Space Agency Council. May 2008. Revised Declaration on the General Support Technology Programme. Paris, France. European Space Agency Council. September 2008. Programme Declaration on Advanced Research in Telecommunication Systems (ARTES). Paris, France. European Space Agency. October 2008. The European Space Agency. European Space Agency. November 2008. Draft ESA Long-Term Plan 2009-2018. Paris, France. European Space Agency. November 2008. The Director General’s proposal: The role of space in delivering Europe’s global objectives. Paris, France. Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. No date. Canada - ESA Cooperation Agreement Expenditures and Commitments from 2000 to Future Fiscal Years ($000's). Saint-Hubert, Quebec Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. No date. ESA- E Summative – Matrice v5. Saint-Hubert, Quebec Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. No date. Indicative Overhead % by Optional Programme Elements. Saint-Hubert, Quebec Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. No date. Notional Breakdown of CSA Partnerships. Saint-Hubert, Quebec Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. No date. Review of ESA Cooperation. Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. Audit, Evaluation and Review Directorate. November 2004. Evaluation report: Evaluation of the Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement (PROJECT #04/05 02-02). Saint-Hubert, Quebec Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. March 2007. Canadian Participation in GMES under EC FP7 funding and Canada / EU Relationships. SaintHubert, Quebec GOSS GILROY INC. 90 Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. Audit and Evaluation Directorate. June 2008. Management Action Plans Follow-Up: Annual Report as at March 31, 2008. Saint-Hubert, Quebec Guillemette, Raymond. Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. October 2008. ESA Program. Guillemette, Raymond. Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. February 2009. List of ESA Contracts to Canada, 2000 – 2008. Hickling Corporation (in association with AstroCom Associates Inc. and Nordicity Group Ltd.). May 1997. Evaluation of Canada’s Participation in the Program of the European Space Agency: Final Report. Hulsroj, Peter. January 2009. Participation in ESA programmes. Eurisy Conference. Budapest, Hungary. Industrial Policy Committee. June 2008. Geographical Distribution of Contracts. Paris, France. Industrial Policy Committee. December 2008. Geographical Distribution of Contracts. Paris, France. Jha, V., Giroux, M. and Leclerc, G. Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. Space Technologies Branch – External Relations Directorate. March 2002. Report on the Review of Canada's Cooperation with the European Space Agency: Presentation to the Executive Committee. Jha, Virendra and Giroux, Michel. Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. Space Technologies Branch – External Relations Directorate. March 2002. Review of Canada's Cooperation with the European Space Agency: Final report. Kinsman, Jeremy. June 2006. Letter to EC DG Energy & Transport. Brussels, Belgium Leclerc, G., Guillemette, R., et. al. Government of Canada. Canadian Space Agency. November 2008. Ministerial Council of ESA –"Strawman" towards a Canadian Position. MacLaren, Sandy. April 2008. Canada–EU bilateral commercial relations. DFAIT Media lines for use by HOMs and STCs in Europe MacLean, Steve. November 2008. ESA Ministerial Council Meeting: Opening Statement by Head of Canadian Delegation. The Hague, the Netherlands. GOSS GILROY INC. 91 Ockwell, Patricia and Beland, Sylvie. April 2006. Meeting between European Commission (EC) and Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) on Possible Cooperation on GALILEO Navigation System. Brussels, Belgium Ockwell, Patricia and Beland, Sylvie. April 2006. Meeting between European Commission (EC) and Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) on Possible Cooperation on GALILEO Navigation System. Brussels, Belgium Ockwell, Patricia and Beland, Sylvie. April 2006. Notes on recent meetings between the CSA and the European Commission on Galileo. Brussels, Belgium. Reute, Matthias. June 2006. Receipt of Your Letter of 21st June 2006. Brussels, Belgium. GOSS GILROY INC. 92 Appendix C: Data-Collection Instruments GOSS GILROY INC. 93 CSA/ESA Case Study Template 1. Description of Methodology (0.25 pages) Description of data sources used to develop case study (documents reviewed, number of interviews with various organizations, etc.) Do not use people’s names in case studies – please use positions only. 2. Background on Proponent Organization (0.5 pages) Short description of organization in terms of years in business, their industry, the main products/services they offer. The CSA website is a good place to obtain this if you missed it during the interview. http://www5.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/industry/csd.asp 3. Overview of ESA Contracts Received Since 2000 (0.5 pages) Brief description of each project including its overall objective, partners involved, amount of funding from ESA, prime or subcontractor, when project began and its completion or anticipated completion date Description of what has been accomplished to date such as products and technologies developed, (but do not discuss impacts to organization in this section) 4. Impacts to Organization and its Partners (0.75-1.5 pages) Discuss impacts to organization and any Canadian partners in terms of qualitative benefits such as improved employee skill levels, increased productivity, increased R&D or innovation capability, partnerships created, potential markets identified for further work, etc. Describe the financial benefits (if any) to the organization and Canadian partners from participating in ESA since 2000. Quantify where possible the impacts on revenues, profits, exports, and job creation. 5. Importance of Partners and Alliances Created (0.25 -0.5 pages) Discuss any impacts or benefits of new relationships created or strengthened for Canadian firm from participating in ESA contract 6. Social Benefits (0.25-0.5 pages) If applicable, describe any social benefits that have resulted (environment, safety, health) 7. Summary (0.25-0.5 pages) Summarize the main findings of the case study in a short paragraph or two. GOSS GILROY INC. 94 C.1 CSA & OGD Stakeholders - Interview Guide The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has retained the services of the management consulting firm Goss Gilroy Inc. (GGI) to conduct a Summative Evaluation of the Canada/European Space Agency (ESA) Cooperation Agreement. The purpose of the evaluation is to assess the extent to which the Canada/ESA Agreement has been successful in meeting its program objectives and to assess its relevance, performance, and cost-effectiveness. The Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement Canada and ESA have been cooperating since the early 1970’s in space activities, with the original Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement commencing in 1979. Since then, the Agreement has been renewed on three occasions, with the most recent covering the period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. In the 2000-09 Cooperation Agreement, Canada contributes to the General ESA Budget at 50% of the rate of other ESA members, and benefits from all activities carried out under the General Budget, except for the scientific program and the basic technological research programs. Canada also participates in the following optional ESA programs: Earth Observation, Satellite Communications, and Space Exploration. The Agreement guarantees Canada the same rights as ESA Member States in optional programs, including an industrial return to Canada that is the same as that of ESA Member States in optional programs. The evaluation involves comprehensive interviews, document and file reviews, an analysis of program data, and case studies with a sample of organizations that have benefitted from ESA contracts. In the evaluation, interviews are being conducted with key stakeholders at CSA and ESA, and with organizations that have and have not been beneficiaries of ESA contracts. In addition, organizations that have benefited from the Agreement may be asked to complete a tailored follow-up questionnaire to more clearly define some of the impacts of the Agreement or to participate in a case study. This interview relates to Canada/ ESA Cooperation Agreement covering the time period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2008. Your participation in this exercise is voluntary, and your responses will be treated confidentially by GGI. Results will be reported at an aggregate level only. The interview will take approximately 30-45 minutes to complete. GOSS GILROY INC. 95 Respondent’s Profile: Name: ____________________________________________ Position Title: ____________________________________________ Company: ____________________________________________ one Number: ____________________________________________ E-mail Address: ____________________________________________ In responding to the questions below, please provide specific examples where possible: Introduction 1. Please describe your role within your organization and with the Canada/ESA Agreement. a. What specifically has been your involvement with the Canada/ESA Agreement? b. Since when have you been involved? Rationale & Relevance 2. Do the policy, programmatic and industrial needs that led CSA to enter into a Cooperation Agreement with ESA in 2000 still exist today? (I-1) a. If not, how have they changed? b. How do environmental changes, such as the development of a European Space Policy (ESP) affect Canada’s future role? 3. Are the objectives of the Canada/ESA Agreement consistent with the priorities of the Government of Canada? (I-2) a. Are the Agreement’s objectives consistent with Canada's Space Program? b. (I-3) Does the agreement support the science information needs of the government? c. (I-4) Would companies have obtained contracts from these ESA programs without the Canadian contribution? 4. Is there a rationale to continue the Canada/ESA Cooperation for another ten years (2010 – 2019)? Please elaborate. (I-5) GOSS GILROY INC. 96 Design & Delivery 5. How do you ensure that CSA is participating in the ESA programs that make the most sense for Canada? (I-6) a. On what basis were the ESA programs selected? b. Were potential for industrial returns and socio-economic benefits considered when selecting? c. How do you ensure you understand stakeholder priorities and capabilities? 6. How are opportunities under the Canada/ESA Agreement communicated and promoted to Canadian firms? (I-7) a. Has this been effective? Please explain. 7. What challenges have Canadian firms faced in trying to access ESA contracts? (I-8) a. How have they been able to overcome these? Results 8. Can you provide examples where ESA contracts have enhanced the technological and innovation capabilities of Canadian companies? (I-12) a. Do you believe that the contracts awarded by ESA to Canadian companies are as leading edge technically as those provided to European firms? 9. Can you provide any examples where, because of an ESA contract (I-13): a. Canadian firms have developed and / or demonstrated advanced technologies, systems, components or studies b. Canadian firms have participated in high-profile European space missions. c. ESA contracted technologies have been incorporated into Canada's other space activities or where CSA or OGDs have been able to benefit from capabilities developed. 10. Have flight opportunities to space-qualify Canadian technologies or products increased, decreased, or remained the same in recent years? (e.g. Were there more opportunities over 2000-2009 versus the 1990s?) (I-14) 11. Can you provide examples where intelligence on European space-related policies, programs, and markets was obtained that would not have been in the absence of the Agreement? (I-19) a. Can you provide examples where such intelligence has been used for strategic purposes by Canadian government departments/agencies and Canadian industry?? GOSS GILROY INC. 97 12. Can you provide any examples where Canada’s other international S&T objectives (e.g., climate change) have benefited from technologies or information originating from the Agreement? (I-20) 13. To what extent has CSA influenced ESA programming and decisions through its involvement as a member of ESA? Please elaborate on why or why not. (I-21) Cost-Effectiveness & Alternatives 14. Is the percentage of the CSA/ESA Agreement budget that is allocated to administration and overhead reasonable? (I-22) a. Can you think of ways to trim administration and overhead costs? 15. Is the percentage of ESA general budget paid by Canada reasonable given the dollars it invests in ESA (optional) programs? (I-23) 16. What alternatives are available to the traditional Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement for reaching the same objectives? (I-25) a. What are the advantages/disadvantages of these alternatives? b. Which alternative do you consider to be the most cost-effective? 17. What would be the impact of discontinuing the Agreement? (I-26) Thank you for your participation! GOSS GILROY INC. 98 C.2 ESA & Other European Officials - Interview Guide The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has retained the services of the management consulting firm Goss Gilroy Inc. (GGI) to conduct a Summative Evaluation of the Canada/European Space Agency (ESA) Cooperation Agreement. The purpose of the evaluation is to assess the extent to which the Canada/ESA Agreement has been successful in meeting its program objectives and to assess its relevance, performance, and cost-effectiveness. The Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement Canada and ESA have been cooperating since the early 1970’s in space activities, with the original Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement commencing in 1979. Since then, the Agreement has been renewed on three occasions, with the most recent covering the period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. In the 2000-09 Cooperation Agreement, Canada contributes to the General ESA Budget at 50% of the rate of other ESA members, and benefits from all activities carried out under the General Budget, except for the scientific program and the basic technological research programs. Canada also participates in the following optional ESA programs: Earth Observation, Satellite Communications, and Space Exploration. The Agreement guarantees Canada the same rights as ESA Member States in optional programs, including an industrial return to Canada that is the same as that of ESA Member States in optional programs. The evaluation involves comprehensive interviews, document and file reviews, an analysis of program data, and case studies with a sample of organizations that have benefitted from ESA contracts. In the evaluation, interviews are being conducted with key stakeholders at CSA and ESA, and with organizations that have and have not been beneficiaries of ESA contracts. In addition, organizations that have benefited from the Agreement may be asked to complete a tailored follow-up questionnaire to more clearly define some of the impacts of the Agreement or to participate in a case study. This interview relates to Canada/ ESA Cooperation Agreement covering the time period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2008. Your participation in this exercise is voluntary, and your responses will be treated confidentially by GGI. Results will be reported at an aggregate level only. The interview will take approximately 45 minutes to complete. GOSS GILROY INC. 99 Respondent’s Profile: Name: ____________________________________________ Position Title: ____________________________________________ Company: ____________________________________________ one Number: ____________________________________________ E-mail Address: ____________________________________________ In responding to the questions below, please provide specific examples where possible: Introduction 1. Please describe your role within your organization and what specifically is/has been your involvement with the Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement? Rationale & Relevance 2. Do you believe Canadian participation in ESA programs is valued and why (elaborate) a. by ESA personnel, whether program or technology managers? b. by Members States or other stakeholders close to the ESA program? 3. Are there situations that you are aware of, where access by ESA to Canadian technology (via the awarding by ESA of contracts to Canadian firms) was hampered/ limited by lack of sufficient subscription (funding) in an optional program? 4. (I1) Do you think the value/ benefits of the participation by Canada to ESA will be impacted 1) by the European Space Policy (ESP), 2) by the « rapprochement » between ESA and the European Union, 3) by the increased participation by EU in the funding of ESA programs recognizing that, while Canada would remain a cooperating state of ESA, it could never be part of the EU? 5. (I18) Do you think the ESA program would be different/ would lose something, if Canada would terminate/ not renew the agreement? 6. (I3) Recognizing that Canada and ESA have begun formal negotiations to extend the Cooperation Agreement beyond 2010, in your view, what are the main motivations for renewing this longstanding agreement? Please elaborate. Design & Delivery 7. Is ESA satisfied with the quality of the participation by the Canadian delegation to ESA governing bodies/ boards/ committees? Thank you for your participation! GOSS GILROY INC. 100 C.3 Beneficiaries of ESA Contracts – Interview Guide The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has retained the services of the management consulting firm Goss Gilroy Inc. (GGI) to conduct a Summative Evaluation of the Canada/European Space Agency (ESA) Cooperation Agreement. The purpose of the evaluation is to assess the extent to which the Canada/ESA Agreement has been successful in meeting its program objectives and to assess its relevance, performance, and cost-effectiveness. The Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement Canada and ESA have been cooperating since the early 1970’s in space activities, with the original Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement commencing in 1979. Since then, the Agreement has been renewed on three occasions, with the most recent covering the period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. In the 2000-09 Cooperation Agreement, Canada contributes to the General ESA Budget at 50% of the rate of other ESA members, and benefits from all activities carried out under the General Budget, except for the scientific program and the basic technological research programs. Canada also participates in the following optional ESA programs: Earth Observation, Satellite Communications, and Space Exploration. The Agreement guarantees Canada the same rights as ESA Member States in optional programs, including an industrial return to Canada that is the same as that of ESA Member States in optional programs. The evaluation involves comprehensive interviews, document and file reviews, an analysis of program data, and case studies with a sample of organizations that have benefitted from ESA contracts. In the evaluation, interviews are being conducted with key stakeholders at CSA and ESA, and with organizations that have and have not been beneficiaries of ESA contracts. In addition, organizations that have benefited from the Agreement may be asked to complete a tailored follow-up questionnaire to more clearly define some of the impacts of the Agreement or to participate in a case study. This interview relates to Canada/ ESA Cooperation Agreement covering the time period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2008. Your participation in this exercise is voluntary, and your responses will be treated confidentially by GGI. Results will be reported at an aggregate level only. The interview will take approximately 30-45 minutes to complete. GOSS GILROY INC. 101 Respondent’s Profile: Name: ____________________________________________ Position Title: ____________________________________________ Company: ____________________________________________ one Number: ____________________________________________ E-mail Address: ____________________________________________ In responding to the questions below, please provide specific examples, and where possible, refer to the ESA contract(s) involved. Introduction 1. Please describe your role within your organization and with the CSA and ESA. a. What specifically has been your involvement with the ESA program? b. Since when have you been involved? 2. What contract(s) has your organization received from ESA? Rationale & Relevance 3. How important is it for your organization to have the opportunity to participate in the ESA program? (I-1) a. How important do you think it is for the Canadian space industry? b. How have the circumstances of your organization changed since 2000 (when the Agreement was signed)? Design & Delivery 4. How well do the ESA contract opportunities align with your organization’s strengths? (I6) a. Has Canada chosen to participate in the most appropriate ESA programs for Canadian firms? 5. To what extent is CSA promoting and communicating the ESA program and its opportunities to Canadian organizations? (I-7) GOSS GILROY INC. 102 6. What challenges have you had in trying to access ESA contracts? (I-8) a. How have you overcome them? b. What changes to processes do you suggest to help Canadian firms in accessing ESA contract(s)? Results 7. Have ESA contracts helped your organization increase or maintain your core scientists, engineers, and technicians? (I-11) 8. What new skills or technologies has your organization acquired as a result of the ESA contract(s)? (I-12) a. Is participation in ESA a strategy that your organization uses to enhance your technology base? 9. Have your contracts allowed you to develop and demonstrate your advanced technologies, systems, components, or related studies, where otherwise you would not have had the opportunity? (I-13) 10. How many flight opportunities have you had where you could space-qualify your technologies or products because of ESA contracts? (I-14) 11. To what extent (I-16): a. Have sales increased as a result of completing the ESA contract(s)? b. Have new markets been entered as a result of the ESA contract(s), which you would not have otherwise entered? c. Has your competitiveness increased as a result of the ESA contract(s)? 12. As a result of your company's work with ESA, to what extent have (I-17): a. New space collaborations or initiatives within Europe, but outside ESA, resulted? b. New space collaborations or initiatives outside Europe resulted? 13. Have ESA contracts allowed you to obtain intelligence on European space-related policies, programs and markets that you otherwise would not? (I-19) a. To what extent have you benefited from this intelligence? 14. How would your firm be different if you hadn’t participated in ESA? (I-1) a. Would your company still have obtained contracts from ESA or its contractors? (I-2) 15. Can you suggest more cost effective means to develop the technologies / capacity that you have has achieved through contracts with ESA? (I-24) GOSS GILROY INC. 103 16. What would be the impact on your company if the Canada-ESA agreement were not renewed? (I-26) 17. Do you think the ESA program would be different if Canada had not participated? (I-21) Thank you for your participation! GOSS GILROY INC. 104 C.4 ESA Contract Beneficiaries - Follow-up Questionnaire Based on your responses to the interview on the Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement, you are requested to provide, to the best of your ability, additional information on the areas indicated below: 1. Please provide details of any new or previously existing technology(ies) or system(s) that your organization has developed or enhanced in ESA-funded contract(s) since 2000, and complete the columns in the following table. Technology or System 1 a) Please describe the technology or system, whether it is new or an enhanced technology or system, its purpose, and how it is used: b) If the technology has resulted in a new product or service, please describe c) If the product or service has generated sales revenue for your firm, please complete the table below as thoroughly as possible. Year Sales Revenue Export Sales as % of Revenue Cost of purchased raw materials and components as % of Revenue Estimated Profits 2000 2001 2002 2003 GOSS GILROY INC. 105 Year Sales Revenue Export Sales as % of Revenue Cost of purchased raw materials and components as % of Revenue Estimated Profits 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (estimated) 2010 (estimated) 2011 (estimated) Future years (timespan) c. Do you have any comments related to the above new or enhanced technologies or systems, products and sales revenue? Technology or System 2 i) Please describe the technology or system, whether it is a new or enhanced technology, or system, its purpose, and how it is used: ii) If the technology has resulted in a new product or service, please describe iii) If the product or service has generated sales revenue for your firm, please complete GOSS GILROY INC. 106 the table below as thoroughly as possible. Year Sales Revenue Export Sales as % of Revenue Cost of purchased raw materials and components as % of Revenue Estimated Profits 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (estimated) 2010 (estimated) 2011 (estimated) Future years (timespan) c. Do you have any comments related to the above new or enhanced technologies or systems, products and sales revenue? GOSS GILROY INC. 107 Technology or System 3 i) Please describe the technology or system, whether it is a new or enhanced technology or system, its purpose, and how it is used: ii) If the technology has resulted in a new product or service, please describe iii) If the product or service has generated sales revenue for your firm, please complete the table below as thoroughly as possible. Year Sales Revenue Export Sales as % of Revenue Cost of purchased raw materials and components as % of Revenue Estimated Profits 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (estimated) 2010 (estimated) 2011 (estimated) Future years (timespan) GOSS GILROY INC. 108 c. Do you have any comments related to the above new or enhanced technologies or systems, products and sales revenue? 2. Please estimate the employment, by year, maintained or created (person years): During the ESA Contracts From Sales of Ensuing Products and/or Services Please indicate the numbers below in person years (e.g. 1 person working for 6 months = 0.5 person years Year Total person years of all employees working on ESA contracts # of person years that were from new hires # of person years considered to be highly qualified persons (HQP) Please indicate how many people you have hired due to sales or follow on contracts that occurred because of ESA contracts 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (estimated) 2010 (estimated) 2011 (estimated Future years (timespan) b. Do you have any comments about employment maintained or created during or after ESA contracts? GOSS GILROY INC. 109 3. Please provide details on new or strengthened Canada-Europe alliances or partnerships resulting from ESA contracts. Alliances include joint proposals, subcontracts, cocontractor56, joint venture or long-term strategic alliances. Please be sure to indicate the start and end date of the alliances and the impact of these alliances on your organization. a. If the alliances or partnerships resulted in sales revenue for your organization in addition to that provided in the previous tables, please provide this information in the table below. Year Sales Revenue Export Sales as % of Revenue Cost of purchased raw materials and components as % of Revenue Estimated Profits 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (estimated) 2010 (estimated) 2011 (estimated) Future years (timespan) b. Do you have any comments about alliances with European companies? C.5 Non-Beneficiaries of ESA Contracts - Interview 56 An example of a co-contractor alliance could be a situation where a scientific instrument is integrated on a spacecraft by a system integrator, in which case the instrument builder and system integrator could be co-contractors with ESA. GOSS GILROY INC. 110 Guide The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has retained the services of the management consulting firm Goss Gilroy Inc. (GGI) to conduct a Summative Evaluation of the Canada/European Space Agency (ESA) Cooperation Agreement. The purpose of the evaluation is to assess the extent to which the Canada/ESA Agreement has been successful in meeting its program objectives and to assess its relevance, performance, and cost-effectiveness. The Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement Canada and ESA have been cooperating since the early 1970’s in space activities, with the original Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement commencing in 1979. Since then, the Agreement has been renewed on three occasions, with the most recent covering the period from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. In the 2000-09 Cooperation Agreement, Canada contributes to the General ESA Budget at 50% of the rate of other ESA members, and benefits from all activities carried out under the General Budget, except for the scientific program and the basic technological research programs. Canada also participates in the following optional ESA programs: Earth Observation, Satellite Communications, and Space Exploration. The Agreement guarantees Canada the same rights as ESA Member States in optional programs, including an industrial return to Canada that is the same as that of ESA Member States in optional programs. The evaluation involves comprehensive interviews, document and file reviews, an analysis of program data, and case studies with a sample of organizations that have benefitted from ESA contracts. In the evaluation, interviews are being conducted with key stakeholders at CSA and ESA, and with organizations that have and have not been beneficiaries of ESA contracts. In addition, organizations that have benefited from the Agreement may be asked to complete a tailored follow-up questionnaire to more clearly define some of the impacts of the Agreement or to participate in a case study. This interview relates to fact that your organization has not received a contract under the Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement since January 1, 2000. Your participation in the survey is voluntary, and your responses will be treated confidentially by GGI. Results will be reported at an aggregate level only. The questionnaire will take approximately 10 minutes to complete. GOSS GILROY INC. 111 Respondent’s Profile: Name: _______________________________________________________ Position Title: _______________________________________________________ Company: _______________________________________________________ Phone Number: _______________________________________________________ E-mail Address: _______________________________________________________ In responding to the questions below, please provide specific examples where possible: Introduction 1. Please describe your role within your organization. a. What specifically has been your involvement with ESA contract opportunities and since when? b. Has your firm tried to obtain ESA contracts under the Canada-ESA agreement? c. Has your firm worked with European clients outside of the Canada-ESA Agreement? Design & Delivery 1. Are you aware of the opportunities from ESA available to Canadian firms? (I-7) a. Is CSA promoting and communicating the Canada/ESA Agreement and its opportunities effectively to Canadian firms? b. Have you had any contact from CSA in promoting and communicating the Canada/ESA Agreement and its opportunities to you? 2. Have you expressed an interest in participating in contract opportunities with ESA? (I-7) a. Have you made CSA aware of your interest? b. Have you discussed opportunities with ESA or their prime contractors? c. Have you registered on ESA’s EMITS supplier database? d. Have you bid on one or more opportunities? If yes, how many opportunities? 3. How well do the interests of your firm align with the program areas from which ESA contract opportunities originate? (I-6) a. If not, how do your existing technological and innovation capabilities differ from the areas being supported? GOSS GILROY INC. 112 4. What challenges do you face in accessing ESA contracts under the Agreement? (I-8) 5. In your opinion, what do you consider the primary reason(s) for not obtaining ESA contracts? (I-8) Thank you for your participation! GOSS GILROY INC. 113 Appendix D: Roles and Responsibilities of Agreement Stakeholders GOSS GILROY INC. 114 Organizations/ Individuals Minister of Industry Roles and Responsibilities Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Trade CSA President Represents Canada at ministerial ESA Council meetings Initiates Memoranda to Cabinet for the negotiation (if required) and signature/ratification of arrangements governing Canadian participation in ESA programs Negotiates, with the CSA, arrangements governing Canadian participation in ESA programs Co-signs with the Minister of Industry Memoranda to Cabinet to obtain approval of arrangements on Canada’s participation in ESA programs Represents Canada at ESA Council meetings Could sign treaties governing Canada's participation in the optional program, if authorized by Order in Council Approves (or rejects) Canadian participation in ESA optional programs, after reviewing PRAB recommendations and Program Approval Submissions (PAS) Establishes total financial contributions and percentages of the subscription to Canadian participation in optional programs Allocates required funds to approved optional programs from CSA Reference Levels for ESA Sets Reference Levels for ESA through the ARLUs Reviews PASs on optional programs and makes recommendations on Canadian participation to the Executive Committee Prepares the Strategic Plan for the Canadian Space Program (CSP); Enunciates the Canadian space priorities guiding the selection of the ESA optional programs in which Canada may participate in order to achieve the CSP objectives Represents Canada at ESA Council meeting Appoints Canadian delegates on Subordinates Bodies and Program Boards, jointly with the Director General - Space Technologies Prepares Canadian positions for meetings of the ESA Council and International Relations Committee Prepares the annual review of the Canada/ESA Cooperation Prepares bilateral Canada/ESA meetings at policy level GOSS GILROY INC. 115 CSA Executive Committee (EC) CSA PRAB CSA Strategic Development CSA External Relations Organizations/ Individuals Roles and Responsibilities CSA Space Technology Department of Foreign Affairs Canada and International Trade (DFAIT) Canadian Delegate to ESA in Paris Privy Council Office CSA Corporate Management Financial Advisor GOSS GILROY INC. Appoints Canadian delegates on Subordinates Bodies and Program Boards, jointly with the Director - External Relations Represents Canada on Program Boards and DOSTAG Identifies opportunities for participation in new optional programs, organizes consultations with industry, and prepares PAS Consults with concerned Departments and Agencies (e.g., DFAIT, DND, NRCan/CCRS, IC/CRC) to reach an interdepartmental consensus on ESA optional programs Presents PAS on the participation in new optional programs for the PRAB and EC approval Submits annual work plans on Canada/ESA Programs Coordinates ESA budgets, approves commitments and payments to ESA under the General Budget and Optional Programs Monitors the implementation of Canadian participation in ESA programs Implement the information systems required by the Ongoing Performance Measurement and Evaluation strategies Represents Canada on the ESA Administration and Finance Committee Negotiates with the CSA and interested departments arrangements governing Canadian participation in ESA optional programs Assists in the drafting of a Memorandum to Cabinet (MC) co-signed by the Minister of Industry and the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Trade seeking approval for the negotiation (if necessary), signature and ratification of arrangements Represents Canada’s interests with ESA officials and Program Boards Collect intelligence on European policies, programs and technologies of interest to Canada Obtains Order in Council authority necessary for issuing a legal instrument of Full Powers and identifying those authorized to sign the treaty Sets annual ESA budgets through ARLU and work plans and monitors financial evolution of approved programs Authorizes and processes payments to ESA 116 Organizations/ Individuals Roles and Responsibilities Conducts internal audits Coordinates the Summative Evaluation provided for in the Evaluation Strategy Other Government Departments: NRCan/CCRS IC/CRC Delegates to Program Boards, cooperation on program management Implements tasks provided for in contracts as per ESA requirements Other Government Departments: DND Consultations on security aspects of Canada/ESA programs CSA Audit, Evaluation and Review Industry/Not-for profit Organization Prepares proposals to ESA invitations to tender Implements tasks provided for in contracts as per ESA requirements Cooperates with CSA to collect data on performance GOSS GILROY INC. 117 Appendix E: Evaluation Issues & Matrix GOSS GILROY INC. 118 ERC Questions (where applicable) Evaluation Issues/Questions Indicators Data Sources Rationale and Relevance: Is the Agreement still relevant and appropriate as an Instrument of Government Policy? ERC1 – Does the program area or activity continue to serve the public interest? ERC1 – Does the program area or activity continue to serve the public interest? ERC2 – Is there a legitimate and necessary role for government in the program area or activity ERC 4: What activities should or could be transferred in whole or in part to the private sector? ERC3 – Is the current role of the federal government appropriate? Is the program a candidate for realignment with the provinces? 1. Do the policy, programmatic and industrial conditions/needs that led CSA to enter into a Cooperation Agreement with ESA in 2000 still exist today? If not, how have they changed? 2. Is the Canada/ESA Agreement consistent with the priorities of the Government of Canada? And with the priorities of Canada's Space Program. 3. Does the program support the science information needs of the government? Evidence that conditions (needs and gaps) still exist that warrant government involvement Overall positive results from the impact assessment Interviews with CSA staff (C1.2) Interviews at OGDs (C.1.2) Survey of contracted companies (C3.3; C3.14)) Case studies. Analysis of industrial and science benefits Evidence that the objectives of the Agreement support the goals of CSA long term planning, the priorities of the Government of Canada, science needs of OGDs. Evidence of unique / highly competitive capabilities of Canadian companies. Documents such as the CSA enabling act, and government policy documents, CSA strategic plan Interviews with CSA staff (C1.3) Interviews at OGDs (C1.3) Surveys of contracted companies (C3.14) Case studies Opinions that the current federal role remains appropriate. Opinions that CSA is the most appropriate organization to deliver the Agreement. Evidence that there have been science and industrial benefits from the last agreement. 4. Would companies have obtained contracts on these ESA programs without the Canadian contribution? 5. Is there a rationale to continue the Canada/ESA Cooperation for another ten years (2010 – 2019)? What is it? Interviews at ESA (C2.6) Interviews with CSA staff (C1.4) Interviews at OGDs (C1.4) Surveys of contracted companies (C3.16) Case studies GOSS GILROY INC. 119 ERC Questions (where applicable) Evaluation Issues/Questions Indicators Data Sources Design & Delivery: Has the design philosophy behind the Agreement been appropriate? 6. Is Canada participating in the most appropriate ESA programs? 7. Is CSA promoting and communicating the Canada/ESA Agreement and its opportunities effectively to Canadian firms? 8. What challenges have Canadian firms faced in trying to access ESA contracts? How do they overcome them? Opinions of CSA and industry on the ESA programs in which Canada should participate? Opinions of CSA and S&T community on impact of Canada's exclusion from ESA S&T program. Evidence that the potential science, industrial and socio-economic benefits had been considered Interviews with CSA staff (C1.5) Interviews at OGDs (C1.5) Surveys of contracted companies, (C3.4) Survey of rejected/non participating firms (C5.3) Case studies. Admin data Evidence of promotion by CSA Attendance/response rates by invited firms Opinions of surveyed firms on the effectiveness of information diffusion Admin data, Interviews with CSA staff (C1.6) Survey of contracted companies. (C3.5) Survey of rejected/non participating firms (C5.1; C5.2) Challenges faced and suggestions or evidence of how they were overcome Interviews with CSA staff (C1.7) Survey of rejected/nonparticipating firms (C5.4; C5.5) Survey of firms receiving ESA contracts (C3.6) Case studies. Results: To what extent has the CSA /ESA Agreement achieved the intended results and objectives? 9. Have the contracts awarded by ESA to Canadian companies and organizations achieved the minimum overall return coefficient of 0.94 as set out by the ESA Council? 10. Have contracts awarded under the General Budget and individual Optional Programs achieved a minimum guaranteed return of 0.84 as set out by the ESA Council? GOSS GILROY INC. A cumulative overall return coefficient of 0.94, in accordance with ESA’s calculation of geographical return coefficients. Minimum return coefficients of 0.84 for the contracts awarded under the General Budget and individual Optional Programs Geographical distribution of contracts reports from ESA Geographical distribution of contracts reports from ESA 120 ERC Questions (where applicable) Evaluation Issues/Questions Data Sources 11. To what extent have the Canadian companies that received ESA contracts maintained or increased their complement of core scientists, engineers and technicians? Change in employment levels of scientists, engineers, and technicians at participating firms Survey of contracted firms (C3.7) Case studies (C6.4) 12. To what extent have Canada/ESA programs contributed to enhancing existing technological and innovation capabilities of the companies that received ESA contracts? Examples of / extent to which new/more complex technologies have been developed or incorporated by firms Number of firms for which participation in ESA programs has been a strategy to enhance their technology basis Survey of contracted firms (C3.8) Case studies (C6.4) ESA contract data Interviews with CSA staff (C1.8) 13. To what extent has the Agreement facilitated the development and demonstration of advanced technologies, systems, components, or tools? Examples of / extent to which Canadian contractors successfully delivered the technologies, products, services, or studies in conformity with ESA technical requirements, within costs and timelines Examples of incorporation of ESA contracted technologies into Canada's other space activities. Examples of how CSA or OGDs have been able to benefit from capabilities developed under ESA contracts. Extent to which new technologies have been developed or incorporated by firms that received ESA contracts Participation of Canadian firms in highprofile European space missions. Survey of contracted firms (C3.9) Case studies, Admin data, Interviews with CSA staff (C1.9) Interviews with OGDs (C1.9) GOSS GILROY INC. Indicators 14. To what extent has the Canada/ESA Agreement generated more flight opportunities to spacequalify Canadian technologies or products? Number of flight opportunities during the 2000-2009 period. Admin data, Interviews with CSA staff (C1.10) Survey of contracted firms (C3.10) 15. To what extent has the number of new companies that participate in the Canada/ESA programs increased? Number of companies and identification of new companies obtaining ESA contracts Procurement registration data from ESA, Contract award data from ESA 121 ERC Questions (where applicable) Evaluation Issues/Questions 16. To what extent have the Canada/ESA contracts contributed to: new business opportunities for Canadian companies in domestic and international markets; increased competitiveness? GOSS GILROY INC. Indicators Data Sources Identification of company size (SMEs, large, etc.) Evidence of contracts to Canadian sub contractors that have not participated before Canada Space Directory and CSA bi-annual industry profile Number of follow on contracts attributable to ESA program Number of new business opportunities identified and market developed that are attributable to ESA Extent to which contracts are one-offs or ongoing opportunities Extent to which profitable niches have been developed Surveys of contracted firms (C3.11) Case studies Number and importance of new alliances forged between Canadian firms and European primes and major subcontractors Number and importance of new alliances forged between Canadian firms outside of Europe Surveys of contracted firms (C3.12) Case studies 17. To what extent have the Canada/ESA Programs contributed to diversify Canada’s international space partnerships through the establishment of new alliances or the strengthening of existing alliances between Canadian companies and European primes and major sub-contractors? 18. What have been the economic benefits to Canada of the Agreement? Computation of value added, revenues, spin off businesses and products, direct tax revenue generated, temporary and permanent employment created that can be attributed to the Agreement Surveys of companies (C3.9; C3.11) and follow up (C4) Case studies and Economic impact analysis 19. To what extent has the Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement facilitated the obtaining of intelligence on European space-related policies, programs and markets? To what extent is it used for strategic purposes by Canadian government departments/agencies and Canadian industry? Opinions that intelligence has been obtained that would not have been in the absence of the Agreement Examples of intelligence gained and how it was used for strategic purposes Interviews with CSA staff (C1.11) Interviews with OGDs (C1.11) Surveys of contracted companies (C3.13) Case studies 122 ERC Questions (where applicable) Evaluation Issues/Questions Indicators Data Sources 20. To what extent have Canada’s other international S&T objectives (e.g., climate change) benefited from technologies or information originating from the Canada/ESA agreement? Examples of / important ways in which other Canadian S&T objectives have benefitted from the Agreement Interviews with CSA staff (C1.12) Interviews with OGDs (C1.12) Case studies 21. To what extent has the CSA influenced ESA programming? Extent to which Canadian developed technologies are critical for ESA space missions Evidence that ESA programming would be different if Canada did not participate in ESA Interviews with CSA staff, (C1.13) Interviews with ESA staff (C2.2) Interviews with OGD staff (C1.13) Surveys with contracted companies (C3.17) Case studies Cost-effectiveness & Alternatives: Can the same results be achieved through different means? 22. What percentage of CSA-ESA program budget is allocated to administration and overhead? Is it reasonable? ERC5 – Are Canadians getting value for their tax dollars? 23. Is the percentage of ESA general budget paid by Canada reasonable given the dollars it invests in other ESA programs? 24. How cost-effective have ESA contracts been to help Canadian companies penetrate the European / international space market, as compared to other CSA technology-oriented programs? GOSS GILROY INC. CSA/ESA budget breakdown Comparison of admin costs with other CSA programs Perceptions of reasonableness Admin data Interviews with CSA staff (C1.14) Comparison of general budget to program costs for Canada versus other countries Perceptions of reasonableness Admin data Interviews with CSA staff (C1.15) Ratio of CSA contributions to revenues and employment generated by Canadian firms in European space market over 2000-09 period compared with other CSA technology oriented programs Ratio of CSA contributions to revenues and employment generated Evidence that Canadian funding is sufficient to attain objectives. Opinions of CSA and company reps. Admin data, Survey of contracted companies. (C3.15) Case studies 123 ERC Questions (where applicable) ERC6 – How could its efficiency be improved? ERC7 – Is the resultant package of programs and activities affordable? If not, what programs or activities would be abandoned? GOSS GILROY INC. Evaluation Issues/Questions 25. What are the alternatives to the traditional Canada/ESA Cooperation Agreement? Are there more cost effective space programming / investment options available for reaching the objectives pursued with the Canada/ESA Cooperation? 26. What would be the impact of discontinuing the Agreement? Indicators Data Sources Identification of alternatives Pros and cons of suggested alternative approaches for reaching the objectives Identification of costs of alternatives, if possible Interviews with CSA staff (C1.16) Interviews at OGDs, Case studies Identification of impacts to stakeholders (industry, gov’t, etc.) from discontinuation Interviews with CSA staff (C1.17) Interviews at ESA (C2.5) Interviews at OGDs Case studies; Surveys of contracted companies. (C3.16) 124 Appendix F: Canada’s Return-Coefficient Rank, by Area Source: ESA Industrial Policy Committee – Geographical distribution of contracts (Situation as per 31 December 2008) GOSS GILROY INC. 125 Return Coefficient for General Budget 2.5 2.0 2.33 1.77 1.51 1.48 1.5 1.28 1.18 1.11 0.98 0.95 0.91 1.0 0.82 0.8 0.79 0.75 0.74 0.67 0.5 0.5 0.41 0.0 Return Coefficient for Telecom Area ESA Member States and Canada 1,5 1,45 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,09 1,07 1,05 1,04 1,04 1,0 1,01 1,01 1 0,99 0,98 0,97 0,96 0,96 0,94 0,92 0,9 0,88 0,8 ESA Member States and Canada GOSS GILROY INC. 126 Return Coefficient for EO Area 1.4 1.2 1.32 1.29 1.24 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.0 1.08 1.02 0.99 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.86 0.84 0.8 0.79 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.41 0.4 0.29 0.2 ESA Member States and Canada GOSS GILROY INC. 127 3.0 2.64 Return Coefficient for Microgravity Area 2.5 2.0 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.27 1.08 1.0 0.99 0.94 0.93 0.9 0.86 0.78 0.56 0.52 0.5 0.38 0.27 0.0 ESA Member States and Canada Return Coefficient for Space and Exploration Area 3.0 2.82 2.5 2.0 1.64 1.5 1.64 1.6 1.51 1.41 1.14 1.0 1.1 1.07 0.95 0.91 0.87 0.79 0.78 0.5 ESA Member States and Canada GOSS GILROY INC. 128 Return Coefficient for Tech Area 1,25 1,23 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,08 1,08 1,07 1,05 1,05 1,04 1,01 1,01 1,01 1,01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1,00 0,95 Return Coefficient for Navigation Area ESA Member States and Canada 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.49 1.33 1.0 1.31 1.22 1.09 1.06 1.03 1.03 0.95 0.82 0.81 0.72 0.69 0.61 0.5 0.02 0.0 ESA Member States and Canada GOSS GILROY INC. 129 1.4 1.26 Return Coefficient for Mandaotry Programs (All) 1.2 1.16 1.14 1.1 1 1.0 1 0.98 0.91 0.9 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.83 0.76 0.8 0.69 0.6 0.64 0.59 0.4 0.2 0.12 0.0 ESA Member States and Canada GOSS GILROY INC. 130 Appendix G: Economic Impact Analysis GOSS GILROY INC. 131 Introduction The economic impact analysis, undertaken for this evaluation, was based on ESA contracts received by Canadian organizations under the Canada/ESA Cooperative Agreement. The analysis was based on data obtained from CSA, ESA, the results of the surveys and case studies undertaken as part of this evaluation, and Statistics Canada’s National Accounts and Input Output (I/O) Tables. Analysis of the data required that the survey and case study data be extrapolated to cover the activities of all Canadian recipients of ESA funding. The extrapolated results were then analyzed with Statistics Canada Input/Output (I/O) tables to identify the direct, indirect and induced impacts of ESA expenditures and related industry activities in Canada. In addition, recently constructed matrices were used to estimate Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs). To maintain confidentiality of the firms involved, analyses were undertaken at an aggregated level. Social Benefits Twenty-one of the 24 respondents to the case studies indicated several examples of where technologies generated social benefits. In nearly all instances, the infrastructure stemming from the ESA assisted projects was necessary but not sufficient to attain these benefits. As illustrated in the following examples, the benefits generated extend beyond Canada’s national borders; thereby, underlining the advantages of international cooperation. Among the case studies there were references to: Tele-health which extends improved health care to remote areas in the Canadian north and elsewhere (2); Distance learning to facilitate delivery of training and education to remote sites (3) and stimulate education on the science of space (1); Improved government services to northern Canada including Nunavut (3); Environmental monitoring of airborne transmission via plumes, including the blackening of the Arctic Ice Cap from emissions, as the first line of evidence to curtail such emissions and the resulting rising sea levels and environmental damage (4) – Canada would be well served by further participation; Improved observation systems designed to assist meteorological services and/or mitigate diverse threats arising from crop failures and other degradation, such as remote pipeline inspection and monitoring (6); Improved communication systems (5) resulting in better data on resources (minerals, forestry, fish and crops) (5), Internet (3), emergency communications (2), search and rescue (4), navigation for shipping and avoidance of ice damage to oil and gas drilling and production rigs (5) and road transportation with reduced emissions (2); Prevent environmental damage through the development of more energy efficient technologies (3); and, GOSS GILROY INC. 132 Positioning Canada’s HQP to continue to participate in the space industry (1). Most of the environmental issues and impacts addressed by ESA are international in their origin. The international abatement of environmental releases will result in international benefits in which Canada and other nations will partake. Consequently, ESA’s related space initiatives warrant international attention. Economic Impacts The economic impacts comprise direct, indirect, and induced impacts. Direct impacts arise when the recipient is awarded an ESA contract. The indirect ones are linked to the suppliers to the contracted company and are further up the supply chain. The induced impacts emanate from the incremental increased incomes due to the direct and indirect impacts, and the sequential increases in income from additional rounds of induced expenditures out of derived incomes. In its 2006 I/0 Model, Statistics Canada57 has estimated the induced impacts arising from consumer expenditures. This is a partial analysis since both spending of increased government revenues and increased private sector investments are not estimated. The following sections utilize the Statistics Canada’s National Input Output tables to derive the direct, indirect and induced. Direct and Indirect Impacts The first step in this process was to identify the contract and follow-on sales revenues generated at the establishment and industry level, as a result of the ESA contracts. The NAICS codes, available at the firm level on Industry Canada Business Profiles, were used to link establishment data on revenues to Statistics Canada’ In order to allocate the impacts among the industries in Statistics Canada’s I/O Tables, all North American Industrial Classification codes (NAICS) for ESA contract recipients were based on their listings in Industry Canada’s Strategis. Where a firm listed more than one NAICS code, the one most applicable one was applied based on the description of the contract for each establishment of the firm that listed contracts received. Therefore, a firm with several establishments could have several NAICS codes. This process allowed us to define the economic shock, or ESA stimulus, as incremental revenues by NAICS at purchaser prices. Table 3 summarizes the economic shock by NAICS category. 57 This model is the latest available from Statistics Canada GOSS GILROY INC. 133 Table 3: Incremental Revenues in Canada by Industry from ESA Expenditures and Revenues Attributable to ESA Space Industry Electronics and Communication Equipment Other Manufacturing Other Private Industry Communications Services Professional Services Training Government Total Expenditures (1,000s $) 182,330 155,242 433 5,433 51,225 1,128 3,248 399,049 Source: Statistics Canada special run for GGI of the I/O system. The economic shock was applied to Statistics Canada’s I/O tables to produce impacts on the Canadian economy related to income, employment and the labour force. Income Impacts The impacts on national income at the national level were captured by estimating incremental Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is a gross measure of what is produced incrementally domestically in Canada prior to taking depreciation into account. The direct, indirect and induced impacts are shown in Table 4. The incremental revenues attributable to the ESA contracts and the follow-on sales produce a stimulus of $399.0 Million, of which $133.4 Million is imported, based on standard ratios by industry in Canada’s I/O framework. This leaves $265.7 Million in Canadian GDP at market prices. This figure relates not only to the firms receiving the ESA contracts but also to all suppliers in the supply chain. Some of these contract recipients and suppliers are likely to have imported materials and supplies, upon which duties would have been paid. These have been estimated via the Statistics Canada’s I/O tables. When they are subtracted from the stimulus, they yield the direct and indirect GDP impacts at market prices. As long as there are imports, the multiplier relative to the total economic shock will be fractional. The multiplier approaching or exceeding unity in the analysis comes from induced impacts when the incomes earned from the project are spent. In this instance, the expenditure shock of $399.0 million stimulates total expenditures of $526.6 million. After taking imports into consideration, the total impact on GDP at market prices is $367.1 million. GOSS GILROY INC. 134 The GDP at market prices is distributed as indicated in Table 4. By subtracting indirect taxes on products and adding in any subsidies to the products over and above CSA involvement, direct and indirect GDP at basic prices is derived. This metric is important since its elements identify various income streams as noted in the Table 4. GOSS GILROY INC. 135 Table 4: Derivation of Direct, Indirect and Induced GDP from the Economic Stimulus (1,000s $) Direct + indirect Induced Direct, indirect and induced. GDP at market prices 265,665 101,430 367,096 Final expenditure 399,049 127,577 526,626 Imports, final expenditures 0 -15,541 -15,541 Imports, intermediate inputs -133,384 -10,606 -143,990 265,665 101,430 367,096 Indirect taxes on products (final expenditures) 0 11,670 11,670 Indirect taxes on products (intermediate inputs) 2,172 1,505 3,676 Subsidies on products (intermediate inputs) -2,024 -1,483 -3,507 265,518 89,739 355,256 Subsidies on production -199 -66 -264 Indirect taxes on production 5,891 6,744 12,635 Wages and salaries 150,998 37,530 188,528 Supplementary labour income 21,388 4,746 26,134 Mixed income 5,206 8,774 13,980 Other operating surplus 82,233 32,010 114,243 Expenditure-based GDP Income-based GDP GDP at market prices GDP at basic prices Source: Statistics Canada special run for GGI of the I/O system. GOSS GILROY INC. 136 Direct incomes, in contrast with direct and indirect income measures, capture incomes at the initial suppliers’ establishments. The contrasts between direct, indirect, and induced are summarized in Table 5. The multipliers are with respect to the3 $399.0 million in ESA contracts. The ratios are as described in the table. Total GDP at market prices is. more than twice ESA expenditures as shown by the GDP multiplier of 2.07. In contrast the ratio of total-to-direct GDP of 2.00 indicating that total GDP at market prices is twice its direct counterpart. GOSS GILROY INC. 137 Table 5: Direct Versus Direct and Indirect Income Measures and Multipliers GDP at market prices * Direct Indirect Induced Total GDP multiplier (vs ESA Contracts) GDP Multiplier (vs direct GDP) Thousands $ 184,007 81,658 101,430 367,096 2.07 2.00 Labour income Direct Indirect Induced Total Labour income multiplier Ratio of total-to-direct labour income Thousands $ 123,867 53,725 51,050 228,642 1.29 1.85 Employment - full-time equivalent ** Direct Indirect Induced Total Jobs multiplier (per million dollars) in ESA & Follow-on Sales Ratio of total-to-direct jobs Number of jobs 2,056 986 1,012 4,055 10.16 1.97 Source: Statistics Canada special run for GGI of the I/O system. The estimated impacts on employment of the ESA contracts and follow-on sales amounted to 2,056 direct Fulltime Equivalent (FTEs) jobs, 986 indirect FTEs, and 1,012 induced FTEs. Direct employment from the I/O analysis includes both new FTEs and employees who retain their positions due to the ESA contracting. In this sense they are incremental to the counterfactual of, “What would have been the relative level of employment without the funding and follow-on sales, had companies failed to find any other markets?” They may not all be incremental since the companies GOSS GILROY INC. 138 throughout the supply chain may have found other work or horded Highly-Quality Persons (HQPs) and other staff in hopes of retaining intellectual capital. The direct and indirect impact on GDP and employment by industry indicate the reach of CSA/ESA projects in Canada. Since I/O analysis traces supplies back up the supply chain by project, the analysis identifies GDP and employment by industry as denoted in Table 6. The largest GDP impacts by industry are highly linked to Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing ($143.2 Million), Transportation Equipment Manufacturing including Aerospace ($6,158 thousand), and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services ($47.3 Million). Major indirect linkages include Finance, Insurance, Real Estates, Rentals and Leasing ($45.2 Million), Government Services ($6.355 thousand), and Wholesale Trade ($11,852 thousand). It is clear from the table that CSA/ESA activities indirectly percolate throughout the economy. GOSS GILROY INC. 139 Table 6: Industrial Supply Chain Reach of CSA/ESA with Canada ($1,000) Description GDP at Market Prices Employment (FTEs) Income (W&S, Sup, & Mixed) Crop and Animal Production 879 29 397 Forestry and Logging 255 3 167 40 1 30 242 4 173 Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 5,127 8 702 Utilities 4,689 13 1,293 Construction 2,423 32 1,874 167,652 1,774 107,888 Wholesale Trade 12,047 132 7,376 Retail Trade 12,221 250 9,072 8,787 118 6,261 Information and Cultural Industries 13,214 87 5,891 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 45,238 180 19,047 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 47,303 701 39,656 Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services 9,040 186 7,268 Educational Services 1,223 34 1,099 Health Care and Social Assistance 2,643 47 2,418 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1,533 38 1,132 Accommodation and Food Services 5,180 152 3,980 Other Services (Except Public Administration) 4,105 107 3,175 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping Support Activities for Agriculture and forestry Manufacturing Transportation and Warehousing GOSS GILROY INC. 140 Operating, Office, Cafeteria and Laboratory Supplies 0 0 0 Travel, Entertainment, Advertising and Promotion 0 0 0 Transportation Margins 0 0 0 Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households 3,049 62 2,826 Government Sector 8,534 96 6,919 355,426 4,055 228,642 TOTAL Source: Statistics Canada special run for GGI of the I/O system. GOSS GILROY INC. 141 Table 7: Direct, Direct and Indirect, and Total Income Impact Measures and Multipliers (1,000s $ Except Ratios) GDP Impacts (Thousands $) Direct 184,007 Indirect Direct and Indirect GDP Induced GDP Total GDP GDP multiplier relative to incremental ESA expenditures Ratio of Total to direct GDP Ratio of Direct and indirect-to-direct GDP Ratio of Direct GDP-to-CSA expenditures 81,658 265,665 101,430 367,096 2.07 2.00 1.38 1.42 Labour income (Thousands $) Direct labour income Direct and Indirect labour income Induced Labour Income Total Labour Income Labour income multiplier per $1 of ESA expenditures Ratio of Total labour income-to-direct labour income Ratio of Direct and indirect-to-direct labour income 123,867 53,725 51,050 228,642 1.29 1.85 1.43 Jobs (Number of full-time equivalent jobs) Direct jobs Indirect jobs Induced jobs Total Jobs (FTEs) Jobs multiplier (per million dollars ESA expenditures in Canada) Jobs multiplier (per million dollars CSA expenditures in Canada) Ratio of Direct and indirect-to-direct jobs Ratio of Total to Direct Jobs GOSS GILROY INC. 2,056 986 1,012 4,055 22.85 15.63 1.48 1.97 142 Source: Statistics Canada special run for GGI of the I/O system. GOSS GILROY INC. 143 Role of HQPs Twenty-six completed responses from the questionnaire indicated that 67.1% of new direct FTE years created were for HQPs. The I/O results cover a broader set of employers since the entire supply chain employment is captured in the direct and indirect impacts and an even broader group in the induced impacts. Direct employment is concentrated in the high-tech industries and professional services such as engineering and medicine, which hire above average concentrations of HQPs. High-tech includes computer and peripheral manufacturing, other communications equipment manufacturing, navigational and measuring medical control instrument manufacturing and, aerospace and aerospace parts. Of the total direct employment impact resulted from ESA contacts, 97.8% was concentrated in the above industries and services. The percentage of incremental employment in high technology industries was smaller. E.G, 81.9% of direct and indirect employment was attributed to the high tech sectors, and when induced employment is added to direct and indirect employment, only 72.4% can be traced to the high tech sectors.. Conclusions The economic impacts of ESA expenditures are augmented by follow-up contracts attributable to ESA. The impacts on GDP and labor income are best summarized by the multipliers relative to ESA and CSA expenditures as shown in Table 9. Table 9: GDP and Labour Income Impact Multipliers for ESA and CSA Expenditures in Canada to End of 2008 GDP ESA CSA Labour Force Income ESA CSA Direct Direct & Indirect Direct, Indirect and Induced 1.04 1.50 2.07 0.71 1.02 1.42 0.70 0.48 1.00 0.69 1,29 0.88 These multipliers are large compared to those of other industry studies, largely due to the identification of follow-up revenues attributable to the IP developed in conjunction with ESA contracts. GOSS GILROY INC. 144 ESA employment impacts amounted to 4,055 full-time equivalent (FTE) years. This consisted of 2,056 direct FTE years, 986 indirect FTE years, and induced of a further 1,013 FTE years. . Labour force incomes were augmented $228.6 million of which $123.9 million was direct, $53.7 million indirect, and $51.0 million induced. Table 4 indicated increased revenues to governments from various sources. Table 10 summarizes those results by type of impact and for commodity taxes by jurisdictional levels. Table 10: Gov’t Revenues Accruing from ESA and CSA Expenditures in Canada to End of 2008 Total federal Federal trading profits on lottery and race tracks Federal gas tax Federal excise tax Federal duty tax Federal air tax G.S.T Final demand Total 5,031 13 423 26 555 30 3,984 6,149 13 830 27 602 90 4,587 Total provincial Provincial gallon tax Provincial trading profits Provincial gas tax Provincial amusement tax P.S.T H.S.T 2,551 19 119 669 4 1,700 39 6,631 86 1,713 571 80 3,881 301 9,182 105 1,832 1,240 84 5,581 340 Total municipal Municipal amusement tax M.S.T. 8 0 7 7 1 6 15 1 14 3,676 11,670 15,346 Total Source: Special run of Statistics Canada’s I/O model for GGI GOSS GILROY INC. Intermediate inputs 1,118 0 407 0 47 61 603 145 Of the $259.4 million provided by the CSA to ESA in the 2000-2008 period $15.3 million accrued to government and at least $6.1 million accrued back to the federal government via import duties and federal commodity taxes with the GST being the primary revenue source for the federal government commodity taxes. In so far as the $9.2 million that accrued to the provinces, it may have offset demands for increased transfers to the provinces. GOSS GILROY INC. 146 Appendix H: Technology and Skills Development GOSS GILROY INC. 147 The following are examples of general and specific skills and technologies reorted as firms as having been developed through ESA contracts: Sensors Soil Moisture (SM) - contribution to the development of the ground segment for an instrument to measure soil moisture (SM) for ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission included the development, procurement and verification of the SM processor. Utilize EO to assess market forces that influence and drive the fisheries and aquaculture sector. The Earth Explorer Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus) will provide global observations of wind profiles from space to improve the quality of weather forecasts, and to advance our understanding of atmospheric dynamics and climate processes. Produce a key micro-bolometer infrared detector leading to significant new opportunities for cloud detection and high temperature event (forest fire) monitoring applications. Address the need for a better understanding of the interactions among the cloud, radiative and aerosol processes that play a role in climate regulation. Develop a prototype software system to determine wind speed using interferometry. Uses satellite earth observation data from multiple satellites (ENVISAT, RADARSAT1, and RADARSAT2) in combination with ground truth and numerous sophisticated models and automatic tools to deliver products that accurately illustrate the characteristic of ice and snow on any given day. Services provided include iceberg monitoring, river ice monitoring, floe edge monitoring, lake ice monitoring, glacier melt monitoring, and sea ice charts. High power microwave amplifier – development of high power amplifier based on Extended Interaction Klystron technology for space application. GOSS GILROY INC. 148 Communications and Navigation Software Defined Radio (SDR) – in developing a platform that forms the core of the Software Defined Radio Regenerative Communications Satellite System (SDRRCS), Array blended its own architecture with the Software Communications Core Architecture (SCA). Gallium nitride (GaN) is a semiconductor with inherent material properties, that when used in devices can deliver vastly superior performance compared to currently available semiconductors. The most important of these are the ability to operate with: high power, high voltage, high temperature, high speed, high tolerance for radiation and low noise. Develop GPS receivers for the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) and subsequent ground receivers Redressed transmission time delays (due to the distance to/from the satellite) and interference. Support in instrument design and data analysis, and developed optical test equipment for the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) equipment and subsequent ground support. Improve on-board processing of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data during planetary exploration, a capability that facilitates the downlink to earth. Increase capability for European satellite guidance; Hazard Detection and Avoidance system for safe landing; flight software: guidance, navigation and control; and R&D for planetary missions including Mars and moon landings. Improve antennas with better sunshields, software, few radiating elements, and lower-risk strut design and diplexed multibeam feed arrays. Design, develop, test and trial new service extensions to provide efficient delivery of IP-multicast traffic to mobile users via the INMARSAT4 satellites. Phase 2 IP-multicast services will be designed to support interactive communications such as push-to-talk voice and collaborative workgroup data applications, as well as situational awareness applications, for instance, in support of disaster-relief personnel. GOSS GILROY INC. 149 Synthesis and Analysis Nest ESA Toolbox (NEST) - contribution has been the development of the NEST toolbox designed to read, post-process, analyze and visualize Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from past, present and future ESA SAR satellite missions. Demonstrate EO applications for the rapidly expanding aquaculture industry and specifically monitoring programs of multinational companies, such as Mainstream Chile. With remote sensing products and services, develop technologies for mapping of mine activity and progressive reclamation, and sustainable development reporting. Modify end user devices to work over satellite, such as medical ultrasonic equipment for a tele-medicine. Establish data generation techniques using Radiative Transfer Codes from French (UdL) and German (FUB) institutes; and establish software requirements, architectural and detailed design, coding and testing of software. Improve computing hardware and software. Deliver an upgraded processor for satellites. GOSS GILROY INC. 150 General skills development Improve skills of staff including project management. Foster innovation. Increase competitiveness. Enhance knowledge of European markets. Maintain and grow areas of practice. Improve competitiveness in European markets. Increased familiarity with European standards. Generated sufficient skills to influence in setting European standards. Improve skills sufficiently to enhance firms’ international credibility. Conformation to higher quality standards is a significant benefit of a “flight opportunity.” Sustain skilled teams in space technologies where space environments require specialists. Develop the skills to transfer space technologies to terrestrial applications. Improved skills in handling IP to maintain secrecy requirements. Contributed to brainstorming and teamwork. Trained part-time employees into full-time skilled workers. GOSS GILROY INC. 151 Appendix I : Management Action Plan Summative evaluation of the 2000-2009 Canada/ESA cooperation agreement Recommendations Responsibility Identified Organization Function PER SS&T Director of PER DETAILS OF ACTION PLAN TIMETABLE RECOMMENDATION 1 a) CSA should seek renewal of the Agreement for an additional 10 year period. GOSS GILROY INC. Head, ESA Program a) PER has been working on the renewal of the agreement since the beginning of 2009. Next Steps: - Finalize negotiations - Submission of the MC - Seek OiCs for Signature - Sign the Agreement - Submit Treaty to Parliament for 21 day sitting period - Seek OIC to Ratify, followed by implementation. Renewal complete d ASAP, no later than end of 2010 152 Recommendations b) If feasible, additional resources should be allocated to the Agreement either from an increase in the allocation of Government of Canada resources or through a reallocation from other CSA programs. Responsibility Identified Organization SS&T Function DETAILS OF ACTION PLAN TIMETABLE b) To support the decision making process of the CSA Executives, ESA Program Management will present an update of the financial situation of the Program before the submission for the renewal of the authorities and terms and conditions of the program are presented to Treasury Board. END OF SUMMER 2010 Head, ESA Program RECOMMENDATION 2 Clarify the role of ESA within the Long-Term Space Plan (LTSP) in order to guide industry on Canadian priorities in space, including ESA participation. SS&T DG SS&T The LTSP has not yet been released as a public document. Once available, if approved, the DG SS&T will ensure that the implementation of the Canada‐ESA Agreement is in line with the LTSP. GOSS GILROY INC. 153 TBD Recommendations Responsibility Identified Organization Function DETAILS OF ACTION PLAN TIMETABLE RECOMMENDATION 3 Develop & publicize a more coherent set of policies & programs for supporting organizations in the sector & developing new entrants. GOSS GILROY INC. SS&T SS&T SS&T DG SS&T + DG SE + DG SU + Head, ESA Program DG SS&T + Head, ESA Program DG SS&T + Head, ESA Program The following activities will support the development of coherent set of policies and practices to help the Canadian space sector better understand the Canada‐ESA Agreement, its implementation and its role in the CSA strategic planning: As part of its mandate, the CSA, in consultation with the Canadian space sector, will develop space road maps to support MARCH 2011 AND ON‐ the implementation of the Canadian space program. These GOING roadmaps will be key in the decision making process for planning Canada’s future participation in on‐going and new ESA Programs. When/if the LTSP is approved and released, the role of the 3 MONTHS AFTER THE Canada‐ESA agreement in the long term planning of the CSA will RELEASE OF THE LTSP. be clarified and this will be communicated to the Canadian space sector either via presentations at events such as industry days and through the update of the ESA website. Upon renewal of the Canada‐ESA agreement and Treasury Board’ approval of the authorities and T&C of the associated contribution program, the next crucial step for the Canada ESA Program will be the Ministerial Council that is currently scheduled for 2012. At that time, Canada will have to announce in which on‐going and new ESA Programs it will participate, and at what level of funding. Preparation for the Ministerial Council will be on‐going until the end of 2012 and will be done in consultation with all branches of the CSA and all stakeholders of the Canadian space sector. The programs will be selected in accordance with the program objectives approved by TB, in line with LTSP(if approved) and consistent with the roadmaps At the completion of the ministerial, the decisions will be 154 BEGINNING OF 2013 SS&T Head, ESA Program communicated to the Canadian space sector to ensure they can consider the associated opportunities in their long term business planning (either via presentations at events such as industry days and through the update of the CSA website) The development of programs to support the Canadian space sector in their efforts to overcome the challenges they face in trying to access ESA contracts would be difficult to justify now or in the near future, considering that the current level of funding is small compared to the capacity of Canadian space sector (as demonstrated by the current situation of Canadian over‐industrial return). Responsibility Identified Organization Function - Update the ESA section of the CSA website to include relevant information and web links that could be useful to potential bidders. Ensure that canadian delegates have easy access to relevant information relating to the ESA procurement process. This will be included in a document entitled Guide for the Canadian ESA Delegate. END OF MARCH 2011 DETAILS OF ACTION PLAN TIMETABLE RECOMMENDATION 4 GOSS GILROY INC. It is felt that an acceptable level of support can be reached by ensuring that relevant public information is made available to potential Canadian bidders (for example on the CSA web site) and by ensuring that the Canadian delegates (or ESA management team) understand the ESA procurement system at a sufficient level and have the appropriate contacts within ESA to help companies that need support. ESA Program Management will: - Recommendations 155 Recommendations Develop a coherent plan for communicating targeted ESA industrial opportunities. GOSS GILROY INC. Responsibility Identified Organization Function SS&T Head, ESA Program Head, DETAILS OF ACTION PLAN TIMETABLE At the moment, Canadian organisations are usually made aware of specific opportunities through informal communications from the Canadian delegates of the respective ESA Program Boards to the Canadian organisations that could potentially benefit from those opportunities (unless they find out through their respective connection with European space industry or ESA personnel). As part of updating the ESA Program management framework, the role of Canadian delegates on ESA Program boards will be clarified in order to ensure that informing the Canadian space sector of opportunities is clearly part of that role and that it is done openly, systematically and in a timely manner whenever possible. This will be included in the Guide for Canadian ESA delegate. The use of the CSA web site to inform the Canadian space sector of upcoming opportunities when feasible is also considered. It should however be noted that in the absence of sufficient funding level for the program, ESA Program Management must be careful to present these opportunities in a realistic manner so that it does not create unrealistic expectations in the Canadian space sector. In other words, it will be ensured that industry also understands the restrictions and limits associated with these opportunities. It should also be noted that there is a risk that the administrative burden related to the implementation of the Agreement will increase after the renewal of the agreement due to the requirement by ESA that all contributions be legally binding under international law. The impact of this requirement is still unclear at this point in time, but it could potentially have an adverse effect on the ability of CSA to properly inform the Canadian sector of opportunities in a timely manner. Role of delegates clarified and included in the guide and Web site MARCH 2011 156 Recommendations Responsibility Identified Organization Function SS&T ESA Program PER & SS&T PER & SS&T Head of IR & Head ESA Program Head of IR & Head ESA Program DETAILS OF ACTION PLAN TIMETABLE updated to include applicable opportunities. RECOMMENDATION 5 Continue to monitor the impacts, if any, of the 2007 European Space Policy and EU trends on Canada and, if necessary, take steps to mitigate any adverse effects. CSA along with DFAIT should also undertake a policy review of Canada’s role in ESA, given the changes occurring in Europe as a result of the 2007 European Space Policy. The evolution of the ESP, EU and ESA will be monitored on an ongoing basis, including through regular contacts with the European Commission and the Canadian mission in Brussels. ON‐GOING The impact of this evolution on Canadian interests will be assessed regularly with DFAIT. Specific actions to mitigate adverse effects or capitalize on opportunities will be presented as required. These actions may include a reorientation of Canadian investments in ESA programs or the development of formal mechanisms to secure Canada’s ability to participate in programs led by the EU. Progress of this activity will be reported to the Executive Committee. GOSS GILROY INC. 157 MARCH 2011 AND ON‐ GOING