23rd Ph.D. Workshop on International Climate Policy
20 - 21 October 2011 MALTA
Energy Planning as an Instrument of
Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Policy Measures on Climate Change Mitigation
Irina Voitekhovitch
PhD, Joint Institute of Nuclear and Power Research ‘Sosny’,
Minsk, Belarus
Research Target Setting
Climate
Change
Mitigation
Ratification of UNFCCC and Kyoto
Protocol
New (stricter!) commitments for Kyoto-2
Adaptation and mitigation targets
Country strategy on GHG emission
reduction
Commitments on GHG reduction -8% for
2008-2012 as against 1990
Belarus – country with economy in
transition
Stable annual GDP growth 8-10%
Replacement of gas (roughly 85% of energy
balance) by peat, coal, mazut, nuclear
Increasing electricity consumption
Energy Security
Economic
growth
Research aims to
1. investigate the existing energy models to analyze
energy systems
2. develop a model of the fuel and energy complex of
Belarus to
3. forecast greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and
long term prospective (assess the environmental effects of
any energy and climate strategy)
4. analyse the establishment of regional emission
trading system to increase contribution in preventing
climate change.
Models for analysis of energy systems
EFDA‐T
IMES
AMIGA
E2M2s
MAED
EERA
EFOM
MESSAGE
LIEF
ENUSIM
NEMS
ENPEP
MESAP
GTMax
ICARUS
NEMS
LEAP
RETScreen
TIMES
MARKAL
MACRO
WASP
Energy
PLAN
ENPEP BALANCE
Description: BALANCE gives the possibility to find
the balance between demand on different forms of
energy and available energy resources and technologies
Advantages: price sensitivity,
lag factor, premium multiplier,
carbon tax modeling, CHP
modeling, several types of fuel
Special features:
very user
unfriendly
Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC)
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
AGRICULTURE
RESIDENTIAL
Structure of energy resources consumption, mln tce
120%
100%
Energy sector - conversion
80%
60%
Exist
40%
20%
OIL PROD
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Natural Gas
Oil-well gas
LPG
Refinery gas
Communal fuel
Mazut
Coal
Peat, lignin
Firewood
Other
Petroleum coke
Wind
NG
A
Peat
FEC characteristics
Structure of electricity
production
- key GHG emitter – 64,4%
(2008)
- gas-coal, peat, mazut
- accelerated pace of growth
80%
100.000%
60%
99.950%
FEC sub-sectors:
99.900%
-
40%
20%
99.850%
0%
Combined Heat and Power Stations
Boiler-houses
Heat Recovery Stations
Hydro
Mazut
Structure of heat energy production
100%
Coal
Nuclear
2010
99.800%
Heat Power Station
Hydro
Wind
fuel
refinery
energy sector
communal and houses sector
agriculture
transport
industry
ENERGY SECTOR
Total current capacity of energy
system – ca. 8000 MW
1.
Condensing PP – 4000 MW
( Lukoml - 2400 MW,
Bereza - 1060 MW, Minsk-5
- 330 MW)
2. Combined CHP - 3935
MW– Big (3555 MW),
Middle (350 MW), Mini (16
MW), Block-Stations (185
MW), Wind (2 MW), Hydro
(12 MW)
AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
RESIDENTIAL
HEAТ
Wind
3.
Coal PS
NuPS
Boilers
Boilers
Hydro
CHP
CHP
CPP
Imported
electricity
Coal
Boilers:
1. MinEnergy – 8500
MW
2. Big Boilers – 28 000
MW
3. Small Boilers gas –
6400 MW
4. Small Boilers peat –
3000 MW
Future - ?????
NG
Mazut
Wood&Peat
Nuclear
Considered scenarios
Scenario 1 – Construction of
nuclear power plant (NPP
Scenario)
1 NPP Block – 1170 MW in 2018
2 NPP Block – 1170 MW in 2019
Scenario 2 – Construction
of combined cycle plants
(SGP Scenario)
NPP will not be built
2000 MW gas fired SGP to be
put into operation by 2030
Scenario 3 – Intensive use
of renewable energy sources
(RES Scenario)
NPP will not be built
1600 MW of SGP will be put
into operation by 2030
1000 MW wind power park
construction by 2025
500 MW Hydro PP construction
by 2025
General assumptions
Coal Power Plant 920 MW - operational in 2015
Minsk CPP-5 (320 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2011
Lukoml (2400 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2014
Bereza (1030 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2015
Wind Power Plants 50 MW - by 2015
Hydro Power Plants 100 MW – by 2015
Electricity consumption growth - 42,5 bln. kWh in 2015; 47,1 bln. kWh in 2020 and with continuation
of current growth rate by 2030 (roughly 2% per year)
Structure of electricity consumption will not be changed
Renunciation of imported electricity starts from 2015
Prognosis of GHG emissions in FEC
120
mln tCO2eq
100
80
60
40
20
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
NPP
2010
SGP
2015
2020
RES
2025
2030
2035
Prognosis of GHG emissions in
Belarus
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
NPP
2010
SGP
2015
RES
2020
2025
2030
2035
Enhancing Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions
•
Using financial mechanisms for GHG emission reduction
trading scheme:
–
–
–
–
regional
Belarus - Law on Climate Protection
Ukraine – 2010 draft law "On regulation of emissions of greenhouse gases’ that establishes a
market-based methods to reduce GHG emissions in the internal trading system
Russia – pilot ‘technological platform’
Kazakhstan - intends to conclude bilateral agreements with other countries and international
organizations (e.g. Chicago Climate Exchange)
Best solution - voluntary trading scheme starting 2013, which contains
sufficient financial and nonfinancial incentives for the companies to
participate.
For CIS conditions it would be wise to prepare and run the emission
trading system in the pilot regions and / or sectors. These pilot initiatives
should be considered as a polygon for testing approaches and training of
professionals all over the country
Future climate treaty
regional schemes
Directions of further research
• Implementation of carbon tax and reaction of
energy system
• Most efficient actions on GHG reduction
• Low carbon strategy including different
measures in supply, conversion and demand
side technologies
• Regional ET scheme – price of CO2 reduced
Thank you for your attention!!!