II. The PROBLEM Cycle
Purpose
Figure 4 shows the PROBLEM Cycle In graphic form. Its goals are the
following:
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Process
Describe the context of the problem or opportunity in biological,
social, economic, and other terms
Articulate the reasons for action: describe different perspectives of
the problems or opportunities that should be or are proposed to be
acted on.
As you complete the PROBLEM Cycle, you should perform the following
tasks:
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Gather, evaluate, and integrate different views of the problems or
opportunities
Specify important measures of problem solution or success
Write a problem statement and goals and objectives to guide the
action design process.
Situation Description ~~~~~~~“\
Q7
Problem Analysis 1 ~~dr~S~~Ssment
Q7
Information Assessment
Objectives Setting
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’ * Design Cycle
Flg~re 4. ‘Ihe PROBLEM Cyck of the Lkcision Protocol, Version 2.0.
You should prepare the following products:
Products
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A narrative description and a graphic “map” of the area or organization including goals, issues, ongoing management activities, and
sources of uncertainty
A description of different problem perspectives
A goals and objectives statement that describes why an action is
needed and what values of measures must be achieved to successfully address it.
Put a check beside each statement that is true. For each question that is
not true or that you are unsure of, work through the Core Question suggested and describe what should be done to bring this part of the altemative set “up to grade.” If you check fewer than half of the questions, work
completely through the PROBLEM Cycle Core Questions.
Initial Assessment
Questions
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- The problem is relevant to the general problems, opportunities, and
goals of the overall situation. If this statement is not true or if you are
unsure, go to PROBLEM Core Questions 4-6.
- The problem or opportunity is clearly def&red.
true, go to PROBLEM Core Questions 6-l 1.
If this statement is not
- The different perspectives or multiple facets of the problem or opportunity are completely represented. If this statement is not true, go to
PROBLEM Core Question 7.
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- The problem or opportunity is defined in measures that can reliably
indicate success or failure. If this statement is not true, go to PROBLEM Core Questions 9-11.
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- The objectives closely address the true cause of the problem. If this
statement is not true or if you are unsure, go to PROBLEM Core
Questions 8, 13, and 16.
- The data and information you have or plan to collect are useful in defining the problem and setting objectives. If this statement is not true,
go to PROBLEM Core Questions 13-15.
- The objectives for problem solution are concrete. If this statement is
not true, go to PROBLEM Core Question 16.
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PROBLEM Core
Questions
Situation Description
PROBLEM
Core Question 1
What do you know about the area, organization, or situation for which
this decision will be made?
Broadly describe the situation, area, or the organization-physically, biologically, socially, culturally, economically, and politically. For physical
areas, a large-scale map may be a useful template. Identify sources of information used in your descriptions.
PROBLEM Summary Table 1. Situation Description (PROBLEM Core Question 1)
Situation Component
Descn’ption
Informa tion Sources
PROBLEM
Core Question 2
What management activities are now going on or have gone on in the
area or situation?
Describe any past, ongoing, or planned management activities, projects, or
programs. Include activities in adjacent areas if they might be important in
describing the problems that relate to this decision. Consider activities
conducted or permitted by your agency, as well as by other Federal, State,
and local agencies and by private-sector individuals and organizations.
Planned activities include those approved but not yet implemented and
those being planned for the future. Show activities on the map, along with
important landmarks and other features that interact with these activities.
PROBLEM Summary Table 2. Management Activities (PROBLEM Core Question 2)
Activity
Activity Activity Description
status*
*Pa = Past; 0 = Ongoing; A = Approved; PI = Planned.
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Activity
Sponsor
PROBLEM
Core Question 3
What natural or human-caused
disturbances, patterns, trends, or other
uncertain events are important in this situation?
Describe how often these events have occurred or are expected to occur
and what implications they have for the situation. Include the following:
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Natural disturbances (for example, ties, storms, insects, and diseases) and their effects
Human-caused events or disturbances (for example, economic
trends, demographic shifts, labor strikes, social and political patterns, and others).
PROBLEM Summary Table 3. Uncertain Events and Disturbances (PROBLEM Core Question 3)
Uncertain Events and Trends
lmplica tions
Frequency
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PROBLEM
Core Question 4
What goals, objectives, or strategic directions have been set for this
area or organizational unit? How might these affect how you solve
problems here?
Look at strategic or programmatic plans, land-use plans, Regional assessments, State plans, environmental protection and species recovery plans,
local development plans, legal and policy requirements, and others. Describe the sources of the goals and the components of the situation to
which they apply. If appropriate, represent these on a map. Show how they
set bounds on activities in the area.
P R O B L E M Summary Table 4. Area or Unit Goals and Objectives (PROBLEM Core Question 4)
Goal or Objective
, Situation
Component
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What are the most important problems, opportunities, or public issues
that characterize this area?
PROBLEM
Core Question 5
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Describe each problem, opportunity, and issue. Characterize each in terms
of both the existing and the desired conditions.
PROBLEM Summary Table 5. Area Problems, Opportunities, and Public Issues (PROBLEM Core
Question 5)
Area Problem/
Opportunity/issue
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-.-----.-_
Situation
Component
Existing
Condition
Desired
Condition
Problem Analysis
Designing an action means changing something about the environment,
organization, or community situation for the better. The following questions will help you be specific about what you are trying to change and
how you propose to change it.
(Note: Record the results of discussions for PROBLEM Core Questions 6-8 in
PROBLEM Summary Table 6. which follows PROBLEM Core Question 8.)
PROBLEM
Core Question 6
What problems or opportunities should be addressed with a new or
revised management action?
Describe any and all problems that seem to demand your attention in this
decision. There may be multiple problems, some of which will be closely
interrelated. Some may be variations of the problems you described for the
entire area or unit.
Consider the following:
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What needs to be changed.
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If there is already a proposed action. what it is supposed to improve.
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PROBLEM
Core Question 7
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Area or organization goals and objectives (PROBLEM Core
Question 4).
Area or organization problems and opportunities (PROBLEM Core
Question 5).
What different perspectives of this problem or opportunity are held by
different
stakeholders?
Describe the views of the decisionmaker, project proponents, public
groups, agencies, and local and State governments.
Consider the following:
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Differences among these perspectives
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What opposing views believe about the system in question
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PROBLEM
Core Question 8
Whose problem it is. What organization has the job or responsibility
to solve it.
How different views can be reconciled and integrated into the overall
problem frame of reference.
What is the cause of this problem or opportunity?
Display graphically or in narrative the principal cause-effect relationships
that explain why this problem exists. A cause-effect relationship is a sequence or network of activities, events, and situation components and
measures. A component of the situation or its attributes may be influenced
by activities, by other components, or events. There are usually multiple
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cause-effect chains in any situation; some are more likely than others to
produce consequences, good or bad.
Describing cauae-cffect
following:
PROBLEM 8 mnmarp
relationships has several uses. It can do the
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Point out possibilities for designing the action
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Reveal ambiguities, uncertainties, or knowledge gaps
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Allow the decision team to visualize how activities interact with
important stress factors and other activities to produce cumulative
consequences
.
Help explain the problem analysis and consequence assessment to
others.
Table 6. Problem or Opportunity Description (PROBLEM Core Questions 6-8)
Problem or Opportunity
Problem Statements
Statement (decision team) (stakeholder view) (P/%7)
(PM)
Stakeholders’
(P/?-7)
Perceptions
Cause of Problem (PR-8)
(Note: Record the results of your discussions of PROBLEM Core Questions 91 1 in PROBLEM Summary Table 7, after PROBLEM Core Question 11.)
PROBLEM
Core Question 9
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What components or attributes of the situation are of most concern or
offer the most opportunity for improvement?
Describe the attributes and measures that are not at their desired levels or
are at risk of dropping below desired levels.
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Every situation has components-biological or physical resources, organizations, societal customs, or perhaps economic conditions. Each component has one or more attributes that describe the component and
comprise its value. Changes in these attributes constitute losses or gains.
A problem is a diversion or possible diversion from the desired levels of one
or more of these attributes.
For example, elk habitat is an environmental (situation) component; the
distribution of habitat types (thermal, hiding, feeding, and so forth) is an
attribute. A riparian area is also an environmental component; vegetation
condition and stream channel condition are two of its attributes. Willow
condition is a specific vegetation c&ribute; willow height or percent utilization of willows by livestock and wildlife within a particular time period are
measures (see PROBLEM Core Question 10 below) of the attribute willow
condition.
Not everyone will have the same beliefs about what the problem is, what
attributes are at issue, or how they should be measured. You will have to
understand different perspectives and synthesize them into an overall
statement of the problem attributes.
PROBLEM
Core Question 10
What measures are used to characterize these attributes?
Specify measures for each problem attribute.
Attributes can be organized from general to more specific and quantified
with measures. These measures act as a yardstick with which to register
or predict changes in response to natural or human influences. Value is
the specific level of a measure. A consequence is the end value of a measure after an event or action has taken place. An effect is the amount of
change that has or will occur in a measure-the difference between the
measure’s value without the action and the same measure’s value under
the influence of the action.
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PROBLEM
Core Question 11
What values of each measure must be achieved to solve the problems?
Estimate the current or status quo value of each measure. The status quo
can be the current value or the future value under the status quo management action.
Specify the desired values of each measure.
Describe or quantify the gap between the status quo value of the measure
and the desired value.
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PROBLEM Summaq~ Table 7. Problem Measures (PROBLEM Core Questions 9-l 1)
Problem (PR-9) Situation
Statement
Component
(PR-9)
Attribute
Measure
of Component of Attribute
(PR-9)
(PR- 10)
Status Quo
Value of
Measure
(PR- 11)
Desired Value Gap (PR-11)
of Measure
(PR- 11)
(Note: Record the results of your discussions of PROBLEM Core Questions 12
and 13 inPROBLEMS urnm~ly Table 8. a@r PROBLEM Core Question13.)
PROBLEM
Core Question 12
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Ia there a need for action to resohre this problem?
Review the status quo, desired, and gap values of the measures in PROBLEM Summary Table 7. above.
Judge whether the gaps accurately represent the problem.
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Judge whether the gap is great enough to warrant action by your agency or
anyone else. Justify and explain your judgment in PROBLEM Summary
Table 8.
PROBLEM
Core Question 13
What evidence do you have to justitp
evidence?
action? How strong is that
For each measure that describes a problem, list the information you used
to evaluate it. Cite studies, articles, and texts and describe data, experts,
internal communications, and other sources.
On a scale of 0 to 10. rate this body of evidence for how strongly it supports the presence of the problem you debed.
On a scale of 0 to 10. rate the problem as defined on its overall importance.
Rank the problems (for multiple problem situations) on strength of evidence and importance. Screen out those problems that are too weakly supported, unimportant, or beyond the team’s scope or authority.
Record your conclusions for each measure. Describe your reasons for
eliminating some measures from the overall problem statement.
For each measure (from PROBLEM Core Questions 9 and 11). record in
PROBLEM Summary Table 8 the following data about why action is warranted: information, strength of evidence, importance of problem, and
status.
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PROBLEM Summary Table 8. Need for Action (PROBLEM Core Question 13)
Measure With Action
Needed (PR- 12)
Information
(PR- 13)
Sources
Strength of Evidence Importance of
(PR- 13)
Problem (PR- 13)
(0 to 70)
(0 to 10)
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Need for Action
Confirmed (yes/no,
reasons) (PR- 13)
Information
Assessment
Note: Record the results of PROBLEM Core Questions 14 and I5 in PROBLEM
PROBLEM
Core Question 14
What are the important gaps in knowledge that keep you from
understanding and evaluating problems in this situation?
Summary Table 9, after PROBLEM Core Question 15.
Evaluate the quality, accuracy, and usefulness ,of the information with
which you are evaluating needs and problems.
Describe major knowledge gaps that, if filled, would make you comfortable
in your assessment of the problems. These knowledge gaps can include the
following:
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PROBLEM
Core Question 15
The inability to adequately measure the attributes
The lack of data on baseline conditions and on the geographic scale
of the stated problems
The inadequacy of models or experts to capture the actual relationships and variability in the situation
Disagreement or lack of understanding about cause-effect relationships
Lack of understanding about natural disturbances and uncertain
events
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Others
What information is most needed to close these knowledge gaps?
List information that should be improved or collected.
Estimate what it would cost in time, money, and effort to obtain this
information.
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PROBLEM S~lmmary
Problem (Component,
Attribute, or Measure)
(PR-6 to PR-10)
Table 9. Knowledge Gaps (PROBLEM Core Questions 14-15)
Knowledge Gap in
Understanding the
Problem (PR- 14)
Information Needed
(PR-15)
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Cost of Information
(PR- 15)
Objectives Setting
PROBLEM
Core Question 16
*Rqm.-e
What are your objectives in solving this problem?
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C-L?
(-& n&y~J-..
List the measures you want to change with proposed actions. See PROBLEM Core Questions 6-l 1. These should be the measures from PROBLEM
Core Question 11 that are important and compelling enough to warrant
action (PROBLEM Core Question 13).
Specify the values (or direction of change from current or status quo values)
that you want to achieve with an action. See PROBLEM Core Question 11.
PROBLEM Summary Table 10. Objectives for Action (PROBLEM Core Question 16)
) Measure (PR-IO)
Target Value (for Desired Consequence) (PR- 11)
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Audit Questions
Cycle back and reanswer the initial assessment questions in this cycle. If
you are unsatisfied with any of the answers, revisit the appropriate core
questions. See Appendix A for suggestions on how to pose the questions
correctly.
(Note: This may be a good point to break your analysts ptacess for collection
of information and for a collaborative validation of the problem and objectives
statements with stakeholders.)
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