A Glance at
THE LATINO VOTE IN
2016
Clarissa Martinez De Castro
The Landscape
2

Latino voter growth continues.
Latinos are a key factor in winning equation for White
House and many state races, but investments/outreach
still at odds with reality.

Republicans are facing a shrinking base.
There will not be an electoral map, and more
importantly, an electorate as favorable to current
incarnation of the GOP as 2014.

Democrats are facing an expanding base.
But they are not fully implementing strategies to
capitalize on that opportunity.
Latino Vote Trend Lines
3
Numbers from U.S. Census data

In 2012, Latino
support proved
essential to
winning the
presidency and
many state and
local races.

There is ample
room to grow this
electorate, by
helping eligible
immigrants
become citizens,
citizens become
voters, and the
community
engage in policy
debates.

Between now and
2028, nearly 1
million Latino
citizens will turn
18 every year.
Latino Vote Projections
4


In 2016, there are more than 22 million Latinos
eligible to register to vote
The Latino vote is expected to grow to 13
million*
Active voter registration strategies continue
to be paramount to unlocking full Latino
voter potential
* Projection from NALEO Educational Fund
5
Top 15 States in Latino Vote
Share
Exit poll margin and U.S. Census data
9.90%
20.90%
-15.80%
0.90%
-10.10%
6.60%
26.60%
17.10%
4.70%
27.20%
18.00%
23.10%
16.20%
-47.90%
14.10%
2016
5
55
38
29
11
6
29
14
9
4
7
11
20
6
12
256
2012
Margin
2014
New Mexico
California
Texas
Florida
Arizona
Nevada
New York
New Jersey
Colorado
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Illinois
Utah
Washington
Total Electoral Votes
Electoral
Votes
POTUS 2012
State
SEN UP Latino Voters, 2012
State
Share
34.85%
23.45%
21.87%
17.26%
16.58%
14.98%
10.88%
10.76%
10.38%
6.82%
6.57%
5.97%
5.43%
4.79%
4.38%
Number
306
3,157
1,890
1,399
400
157
835
395
259
32
103
202
295
49
139
Latino CVAP
Latino Registered
unregistered,
Voters, 2012
2012
State
Share
35.69%
23.99%
24.67%
17.82%
18.35%
15.39%
11.06%
10.82%
10.78%
6.70%
7.22%
5.75%
6.46%
5.36%
4.87%
Number
349
3,684
2,652
1,622
516
181
983
468
284
37
127
216
415
61
172
(in
thousands)
195
2,826
2,215
628
473
121
565
305
213
20
93
106
355
90
126

Exit polls placed the
Latino share of the
2012 electorate at
10%.

In 2012, 80% of
Latino voters were
concentrated in
nine states. In
order of Latino
votes cast, these
were: CA, TX, FL,
NY, AZ, NJ, NM, IL
and CO.

Notably, the 15
states with the
fastest growth rate
in Latino voters
were MA, TN, UT,
MI, NH, RI, OR, IA,
LA, DE, VA, AZ, IN,
CO and OH, many
not often
associated with the
Latino community.
Courting the Latino Electorate
6

Candidates matter – developing a relationship
with community; demonizing immigrants and
Hispanics is a losing strategy.

Issues matter – candidates need to define their
positions on the issues that matter to the Hispanic
community.

Meaningful outreach is essential – lean in,
communicate record; significant investments pay
off.
Our Work in the Community
7



Lift up authentic Latino community views and
voice
Expand Latino electoral and issue
engagement
Solidly establish Latinos’ rightful place in the
American community
At a time when some politicians are seeking
to tear at the seams of our country’s social
fabric, Latino voters will be a powerful ally in
advancing a strong and positive vision of
NCLR’s Civic Engagement Work:
Building a Participation Continuum
Voter
Education
Voter
Registration
Voter
Turnout
Citizenship
Assistance
& Promotion
Issue
Education
Issue
Advocacy
Strengthen civil
society
by connecting eligible
immigrants to
citizenship, citizens to
registration and voting,
and the community at
large to ongoing issue
education and advocacy,
to achieve
transformational policy
change
To date, NCLR has
registered over 500,000
voters, through canvassing,
phonebanking, and a
service provider program
that has been active since
NCLR #Latinos Vote 2016
9


Canvassing plans for Florida, Pennsylvania and Nevada
Multi-state service provider program with NCLR staff training and
supporting community-based organizations to register people in their communities


NCLR & MiTu launching a voter registration
campaign targeting Latino millennials
app and online
A high school senior registration program, being developed
with NCLR charter school partners, that will be disseminated to other schools in 2016
and beyond
A phone registration model in partnership with NCLR Affiliates,
contacting their clients to help them register to vote
Working with our network of nearly 300 organizations to disseminate voter registration
tools and energize participation in their communities
Leveraging our policy, polling, programs and communications work to elevate issues of
concern to Latino voters and ensure those issues are included in debates.
With proper funding, our goal is to directly register nearly a hundred thousand
people, reach a larger universe in GOTV efforts, and generate a public awareness
campaign that energizes our community well beyond those we touch directly.

NCLR #Latinos Vote 2016
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