Information
and
Communication
ITU-BDT Sub-Regional Seminar
on IMT-2000
for CEE and Baltic States
Ljubljana (Slovenia)
1-3 December 2003
Towards
Next Generation Networks
Christoph Legutko
Director Frequency Policy
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
2
1
Market Drivers
Next Generation Networks
• Emerging bandwidth-intensive applications and services
• Increasingly limited capacity of traditional access networks
• Continuing innovations and cost reductions of infrastructure
and active equipment
• Ability to use existing infrastructure to capture incremental
revenues and an accelerated RoI
Information and Communication
3
Market Drivers
Person-to-Person Communication
Person-to-Person means:
§
n
Direct user-user communication: voice/video/data
n
No store & forward in between
Person-to-Person requires:
§
n
Optimized infrastructures for traffic engineering, QoS and security
n
Adaptation and evolution of the PS domain infrastructure for optimized transport
Person-to-Person results in:
§
n
Multimedia traffic (incl. voice) via PS domain
n
IMS for End-to-End policy and session control
n
Cost-efficient transport node at Metropolitan Level
Information and Communication
4
2
Applications based on broadband
Messaging
Multimedia
Conference
Video/AudioOn-Demand
Video
Telephony
Online
Gaming
Revenue
Value-added
Applications
Add application
revenues to
boost profits
Basic Telecom Service
Revenuegenerating
Applications
Self -managing
Networks
Time
Today
Demand-oriented
Infrastructure & Technology
Information and Communication
5
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
6
3
Operator Challenge
Changing Nature of Traffic in the Access
Bandwidth capacity is multiplying
• Deployment of xDSL and Ethernet in the 1st mile
Bandwidth demand is growing even faster
100%
• Peer 2 Peer, Gaming and Video Services are
bandwidth intensive
ort
Eff
t
s
Be
me
l -ti
a
e
rR
Nea
Real-time
Bandwidth & Demand are both exploding
Time
• Near real-time & real-time traffic puts more stress on the BW
• The nature of traffic is changing to more dynamic with QoS orientation
Information and Communication
7
Operator Challenge
More Bandwidth = Increased Revenue ?
• Most European operators are loosing money on flat-rate concepts
• Each household has a limited amount of money to spend
• Peer 2 Peer is major driving force (MP3, Movies > 60% of traffic)
• Adding further BW does not resolve the QoS problem, generally
worsens it by attracting more QoS-sensitive applications eg.
Broadcast Video
• Increased Bandwidth is NOT increasing ARPU automatically!
Information and Communication
8
4
Operator Challenge
Complexities
Set Top
DRM
Encryption
Piracy in
Territory
Network
Partners
Commercial
Opportunity
Information and Communication
9
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
10
5
Online Gaming
Drivers :
Challenges :
Ø Interaction demand in home entertainment.
Ø Customer awareness of gaming.
Ø Widespread adoption of broadband access.
Ø Closer collaboration between service providers,
operators and equipment vendors.
Ø Availability of universally acknowledged online
gaming platforms and business models.
Ø Integrated online gaming devices.
Ø Increasing bandwidth demand for telecom
infrastructure.
Information and Communication
11
Video-on-Demand
Worldwide VOD Revenue Share by 2006
4.7%
15.0%
43.2%
37.1%
North America
Asia
Europe
Others
Challenges :
Ø Competition from Cable TV operators, whose
VOD subscriber base will increase from current
3 million to over 11 million by 2006 (source: Instat 02).
Ø Regulatory policy, in some regions.
Ø Availability of mass telco broadband access.
Information and Communication
12
6
Home Networking
Drivers :
Ø Broadband sharing – the biggest driver over the past
three years.
Ø Increasing adoption of networked gaming and
video/audio-on-demand, iTV services.
Ø Increasing number of IT-enabled household appliances.
Networked
Networked home
home entertainment
entertainment will
will become
become the
the biggest
biggest
driver
driver of
of home
home networking
networking over
over next
next 55 years!
years!
And
And online
online gaming
gaming console
console will
will become
become the
the biggest
biggest
home
home networking
networking product!
product!
CAGR 210.7%
Information and Communication
13
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
14
7
Future of Mobile Subscriptions
YE 2002/08: there is still a lot to come – in all regions
Western Europe
439‘
NorthAmerica
Eastern Europe
Asia/
Pacific
134‘
309‘
326‘
76‘
843‘
153‘
Africa/ 134‘
Mideast
182‘
LatinAmerica
431‘
58‘
102‘
Subs YE08
Subs YE02
Source: ICM N M Market Assessment Status: August 2003
Information and Communication
15
Growing ARPU and Attractive Data Services
are major Drivers for Operator Revenues
900,000
§ Messaging will be main driver of
ARPU growth until 2006
Million EUR per year
800,000
700,000
Data Revenues
600,000
Voice Revenues
§ Beginning with 2005 real-time
multimedia communication will gain
a large momentum
500,000
400,000
§ Person-to-Person Communication
generates 90% of revenues
300,000
200,000
100,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Source: ICM N M Market Assessment
50
PersontoMachine
rn
ste
We rope
Eu
40
30
€
20
PersontoPerson
Browsing & Download
Messaging (w/o SMS)
SMS
Real-Time Multimedia
Voice
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Increasing ARPU by Indoor-Outdoor Convergence
§ Attractive service packages
§ Convenience
§ Common look & feel
§ Transparent pricing by unified charging
§ Faster uptake of new services
§ Increasing critical mass of users
§ Especially for person-to-person services
§ Like Peer-to-peer Real time Multimedia
§ Stimulation of additional voice calls
§ Induced by increased usage of data services
ARPU with IOC
Mobile ARPU
2008
Information and Communication
16
8
Acceptance of Mobile Data Services
Prerequisites for Successful Mobile Data Services:
§
§
§
§
§
§
Personalized and highly customized
More individual bandwidth
Always-on
Global roaming
Seamless network, UMTS-GPRS-GSM
Rich multimedia services:
Information, transaction, entertainment
⇓
my services, anytime, anywhere, on my device
Information and Communication
17
The Future has already started:
Provided service
many mobile data services can be deployed today
Video
Video conferencing
conferencing
Video
Video telephony
telephony
Teleshopping
Teleshopping
Electronic
Electronic newspaper
newspaper
Images
Images // sound
sound files
files
2G
3G
Telebanking
Telebanking
Financial
Financial services
services
Database
Database access
access
Information
Information services
services
E-mail
E-mail
Voice
Voice
10 kbps
100 kbps
1 Mbps
10 Mbps
n Many data services are also possible with 2.5G but
only 3G allows for sufficient simultaneous service of users
n 3G delivers seamless services from narrowband to broadband
and will support flexible bandwidth on demand up to 2 Mbps per cell
Information and Communication
18
9
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
19
WLANs
World-wide WLAN Hot Spot
Service Revenues and Users
3
75 000 Hot Spots
3,5
20
2
15
Service Revenues
Public Users
1,5
10
1
5
0,5
Source: ICM N M
0
0
2002
2003
2004
Strategic Keys
4,0
mil Users
2,5
bn $
World-wide WLAN Vendor Revenues
(bn $)
25
2005
3,0
Public:
Market Education for
mobile data
Home:
Convergence for voice
and data
Enterprise:
Complementation
of IT Infrastructure
public
home
enterprise
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
The strategic importance of WLAN dominates the wireless Industry
as revenue potentials are moderate
for vendors and their customers like MNOs
“We have a black zero business case, but we need to be in the
driver seat for mobile data to keep competition (FNOs, ISPs) out”
Information and Communication
20
10
Wireless must trade-off Throughput for Mobility & Range
n Mobile radio access networks are designed to meet certain maximum requirements
for grade of mobility and range
n WLANs are designed for high data rates, low ranges and generally low mobility
Mobility & Range
High Speed
Vehicular
Rural
Vehicular
Urban
GSM
3G/UMTS
Pedestrian
IEEE 802.11a
Indoor
Fixed urban
Personal Area
DECT
BlueTooth
0.5
BRAN
Hiperaccess
BRAN
Hiperlan2
2
20
155 Mbps
Total data
rate per cell
Information and Communication
21
WLAN and 3G will be complementary
n
WLAN provides a viable cordless data solution for quasi stationary
use:
n
n
for corporate and campus scenarios
for nomadic (business) users in the public hotspot environments
n
The coupling of WLAN and cellular should be as „soft“ as possible
in order not to overburden the individual systems
n
Economies of scale rely on mainstream WLAN technology;
proprietary solutions destroy the power of the embedded base
Information and Communication
22
11
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
23
The subscriber …
… wants it cheap, wants it now and wants to choose:
• to get one Bill, one Number
• to stay in close contact
• to check one mailbox instead of many
• to communicate immediately in real-time
• to communicate cheaply
• to communicate with many people who are using different media at the
same time
Loss
of subscriber loyalty
Increase
of subscriber knowledge
Information and Communication
Increase
of subscriber sovereignty
24
12
Ten Convergence Commandments:
the operators dilemma
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.
There is the need to invest in SIP based VAS to improve revenues
The standards are not ready but interoperabilityis crucial
Addressing of fixed and mobile subscribers is necessary
ONE investment should cover fixed and mobile needs
Avoiding the wrong investment today …
… and there is a need to invest right now to avoid customer churn
3GPP compliance is inevitable…
… and features of fixed networks are also required
IETF SIP and 3GPP SIP must be supported…
… and interoperability with the existing infrastructure is necessary
Indoor – Outdoor Convergence (IOC) seems to meet all these demands
⇓
An increased demand for IOC
Information and Communication
25
Different Categories of Convergence in the I&C world
n
Service Convergence
n same service offering for fixed and mobile user access
(e.g., SMS / MMS, multimedia conferencing, gaming)
n universal numbering
n one bill
n
Product Convergence
n common application server
n common service enabling solution (incl. charging)
n common session control
n common interworking functions
n
Network Convergence
n common core network
(control, user and transport plane)
n common operation
n support of any access network
Information and Communication
fixed
fixed
access
access
wireless
wireless
access
access
mobile
mobile
access
access
26
13
Convergence can happen in different Network Layers
Fully converged SIP-based Application & Service Infrastructure
Content
Service Enabling &
Applications
IN
Apps
Charging
Pres.
HLR/
HSS
Session Control &
Switching
(circuit switched
and packet switched)
Control
MGW
Backbone &
Transport
fixed
mobile
wireless
Network Access
Information and Communication
27
The Network Evolution
Complete of Network Solutions for Next Generation Networks
The evolutionary approach ensures smooth transition to the future.
n
n
n
n
take small steps
limit investment for each step (pay as you grow)
reduce risk
flexibly adapting to market requirements.
User-friendly applications by
hiding technology
Standardized
application
Service
interfaces for
enablers: mass market
MMS,
location,
payment…
2G
2.5G
Multimedia
real-time
applications
like rich voice
and video
Seamless roaming
and handover
between multiple
generation
technologies
Access System
POTS/
POTS/
ISDN
ISDN
Unified IP
multimedia
network with
multi-radio
access
Wireline
Wireline
xDSL
xDSL
Unified
Unified IP
IP
Multimedia
Multimedia
Network
Network
others
others
WLAN
WLAN
GSM
GSM
W-CDMA
W-CDMA
GPRS
GPRS TD-SCDMA
TD-SCDMA
EDGE
EDGE
Higher data rates
> 2Mbit/s
Reduced
network complexity
3G
Applications
and Services
Self-organizing
networks
Beyond 3G
Information and Communication
28
14
Standards and Frequency Spectrum for IMT-2000
800
850
900
950
1000
1700
1750
1800 1850
1900
1950
2000
ITU Allocations
IMT 2000
Europe
North America
China
Japan, Korea
(w/o PHS)
Brasil, Venezuela
IMT 2000
GSM
DECT
GSM 1800
IMT
MSS
UMTS
MSS
2050
2100
2150
2200 2250
2500 2550
IMT 2000 MSS
IMT
MSS
UMTS
2600 2650 2700
under study
PCS
Cellular
Cellular
AWS
GSM
PDC
AD BB EF C
GSM 1800, PCS
PDC
Cellular
IMT
PHS
Cell.
A DBB E F C
IMT
Cell.
MSS
AWS
MSS
MSS
IMT 2000 MSS
MSS
IMT 2000 MSS
IMT
2000
under study
IMT 2000
under study
under study
IMT
2000
• Allocation of IMT-2000 systems outside IMT-2000 bands leads to industry fragmentation
Ø IMT-2000 Deployments in IMT-2000 bands only
Ø Open and interoperable standards strength the industry
• Harmonized spectrum is important for roaming and large economy of scale
Ø Non-harmonised Spectrum plans cause co -ordination problems and spectrum loss
Information and Communication
29
Source: Siemens 2002
World Harmonisation
Advanced Wireless Services
NA GDP
US $ 9,3 trillions
31 % of world
Pop
304 million
CDMA2000, EDGE
LA GDP
US $ 1,2 trillions
4 % of world
Pop
317 million
GDP
US $ 19,7 trillions
65 % of world
Pop
5,4 billion
UMTS
UMTS ≥ 2002
UMTS ≥ 2005
Information and Communication
30
15
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
31
Changing lifestyles and end-user habits
1990
relaxed
Sending a
“hello” from
vacation
2000
comfortable
>2005
immediately
Phone, postcards & pictures
E-mails, attachments, SMS,
videos etc.
Video-telephony, Photo
messaging via mobile
Board games
Gameboy, Playstation etc.
(Interactive) Mobile gaming
Online guide &
online ticket reservation
Real-time guide
with nearest
cinema & mobile
ticketing
Gaming
Service
Find out a
nice movie
and buy
a ticket
Paper guide
& telephone
New mobile services will have a strong impact on everyday life of end-users
Information and Communication
32
16
NGNs as a Mix of Different Access Technologies
1000
FTTH
100
VDSL
10
NGNs
Mbit/s per user
ADSL
1
ISDN
0,1
UMTS
GPRS
0,01
GSM
PSTN- Modem
0,001
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year
Information and Communication
33
All-IP: ...hype or necessity?
Hybrid networks rule today in for long time
n
n
n
n
High OPEX
Service convergence slow
Service evolution slowed-down by the hybrid infrastructure
(physical, logical and operational)
Slow terminal equipment price erosion in hybrid environment
=> It is a must, to come to a common denominator:
l
l
l
l
IP infrastructure
IP control (SIP)
IP-based terminals
IP-based services
All-IP is necessity to decrease overall communication costs
Information and Communication
34
17
Summary / Conclusion
n
Telecommunication market is here to stay
as growth engine of global economy
n
Open and interoperable standards strength the industry
n
Harmonized spectrum is important
for roaming and large economy of scale
n
Generating new revenues is still the major challenge
n
Customers like the variety of services,
but not the burden of technology details
n
Seamless inter-operability of multiple interfaces
provides the optimal response to the end-users needs
n
Migrating towards customer centric networks:
solid steps, solid performance and solid reliability
Information and Communication
35
Thank You for
Your Attention
Siemens AG
Information and Communication
Mobile Networks
Product Generation
Postal Address:
Siemens AG - ICM N PG SP ST A
D-81541 München / Germany
Office Address:
St.-Martinstrasse 76
Christoph Legutko
Director
Frequency Policy
Tel. +49 89 636 - 75187
Fax +49 89 636 - 75165
Mobile +49 171 55 202 43
Mail christoph.legutko @siemens.com
Information and Communication
36
18
Thank You for
Your Attention
Siemens AG
Information and Communication
Mobile Networks
Product Generation
Postal Address:
Siemens AG - ICM N PG SP ST A
D-81541 München / Germany
Office Address:
St.-Martinstrasse 76
Christoph Legutko
Tel. +49 89 636 - 75187
Fax +49 89 636 - 75165
Mobile +49 171 55 202 43
Mail christoph.legutko @siemens.com
Director
Frequency Policy
Information and Communication
37
Deploying Profitable Multimedia Networks
User experience
Operators' needs:
Revenuegenerating
of networks
• Efficient infrastructure
Information and Communication
Self-managing
s
ce
rvi
Se
• Optimized utilization
Int
eg
rat
ion
Applications
• New revenues
Networks
Demand-oriented
Infrastructure & Technology
38
19
Convergence
Fully converged SIP-based Application & Service Infrastructure
IP
Centr.
IM
SIP
Apps
Pres.
Common SIP Services and Applications
HLR
PLMN SGSN
HSS
MSC
MGW
GGSN
PDF
CSCF
MGW
MGCF
IP-CTX
PSTN
Multimedia Network
fixed
mobile
wireless
SIP user
Information and Communication
39
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
40
20
Online Gaming
Market Overview
Market :
Ø Asia-Pacific is leading the world online gaming
market with total subscription revenue of
US$533 million in 2002 (source: IDC May 2003)
Ø South Korea and Taiwan form two of the world’s
largest online gaming markets. (source: IDC May 2003)
Ø In 2002 roughly 9% of the total traffic over US
backbone are due to online gaming. (source: Instat
2003)
Drivers :
Challenges :
Ø Interaction demand in home entertainment.
Ø Customer awareness of gaming.
Ø Widespread adoption of broadband access.
Ø Closer collaboration between service providers,
operators and equipment vendors.
Ø Availability of universally acknowledged online
gaming platforms and business models.
Ø Integrated online gaming devices.
Ø Increasing bandwidth demand for telecom
infrastructure.
Information and Communication
41
Online Gaming
Broadband is changing the landscape of Gaming
Status :
Ø With more and more video gaming becoming online,
more powerful CPU and high speed internet access
are mandatory !
Ø Online gaming grant people purely new “social
interaction”, chatting together, fighting together, trading
together and even getting married ! All online!
Trend :
Ø Worldwide broadband subscribers will surpass 130
million by 2006 (source: In-stat/MDR 6/02)
Ø Video game console market reached 31.8 million
units in 2001 while all top 3 gaming console makers,
i.e. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo have declared
their online gaming plan to ensure further growth.
(source: In -stat/MDT9/02)
Information and Communication
42
21
Video-on-Demand
Market Overview
Driver :
Ø Customer awareness and demand for
entertainment.
Ø Widespread broadband adoption
Ø Technology Innovation in video compression
and data transmission fields.
Market :
Worldwide VOD Revenue Share by 2006
15.0%
4.7%
43.2%
Ø Currently adult content VOD service is
dominating the total VOD market with a total
revenue of US$ 460 million in 2002,
representing 98% of the total market share.
Ø By end of 2004, family oriented VOD service
user will outnumber the users of adult content
service.
Ø By 2006, about 40% of the residential
broadband subscribers will use VOD service.
37.1%
North America
Asia
Europe
Others
Source: In-Stat/MDR 5/02
Information and Communication
43
Video-on-Demand
Telcos vs. Cable operators
Status and Trend :
Challenges :
Ø Worldwide there were over 100K subscribers to
video services over telco network in 2001 and 19
million are expected by 2007. (source: Instat 3/03)
Ø Competition from Cable TV operators, whose
VOD subscriber base will increase from current
3 million to over 11 million by 2006 (source: Instat 02).
Ø Asia is expected to take over the leading role of
US in global telco video market in 2004.
Ø Regulatory policy, in some regions.
Information and Communication
Ø Availability of mass telco broadband access.
44
22
Home Networking
Why Home Networking ?
Source: InStat/ MDR 01/03, US market survey in mid -2002
Broadband sharing has been one major reason for consumers to
deploy home networking
Information and Communication
45
Home Networking
Home Networking Development
Drivers :
Ø Broadband sharing – the biggest driver over the past
three years.
Ø Increasing adoption of networked gaming and
video/audio-on-demand, iTV services.
Ø Increasing number of IT-enabled household appliances.
Market :
Ø Worldwide home networking market will grows from
$1.8 billion in 2002 to $5.3 billion in 2007
Ø Ethernet is the most deployed technology today while
wireless is expected to quickly surpass it.
CAGR 210.7%
Ø Multimedia home networking, while accounting for
just 6% of the market in 2002, will make up 49% of
the revenues for total home networking by 2007.
Ø North America will continue lead the market through
2007, with the number of home networks grow from
9.2 million in 2002 to over 28 million by 2007.
Information and Communication
46
23
Home Networking
Audio and Video Entertainment
The Future Driver for Home Networking
The typical home network today is
W ith the popularity of online gaming
data-based and PC centered,
emphasizes sharing peripherals and
broadband within home ···
digital TV, and audio / video-on-demand
services, multimedia home networks are
needed to share these digital content···
Internet
ble
L, Ca
ADS
VDSL
, Fibe
r
IAD/RGW
CPE
Audio player
Game
console
Printer
scanner
HDTV
Today
Future
Printer
Laptop
Laptop
PC
DVD
PC
Networked home entertainment will become the biggest driver of home networking
over next 5 years!
And online gaming console will become the biggest home networking product!
Information and Communication
47
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
Information and Communication
48
24
Growing ARPU and Attractive Data Services
are major Drivers for Operator Revenues
900,000
Million EUR per year
800,000
700,000
Data Revenues
600,000
Voice Revenues
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Source: ICM N M Market Assessment
n Gradually, data-oriented services will account for
one third of the traffic revenues worldwide
n Mobile data revenues will grow much stronger than voice revenues
Information and Communication
49
Average Monthly Revenue per User
50
All kind of services are suitable to be offered simultaneously in fixed & mobile
PersontoMachine
40
rn
ste
We rope
Eu
30
Browsing & Download
Messaging (w/o SMS)
€
PersontoPerson
20
10
SMS
Real-Time Multimedia
Voice
Source: Siemens Mobile Networks Marketing, 2003
Note: Machine-to-Machine revenues are not
included in this chart.
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
§ Messaging will be main driver of ARPU growth until 2006
§ Beginning with 2005 real-time multimedia communication will gain a large momentum
§ Person-to-Person Communication generates 90% of revenues
Information and Communication
50
25
Upside Potential through Indoor-Outdoor Convergence
ARPU
with
IOC
Increasing ARPU by
n
Mobile
ARPU
Attractive service packages
n Convenience
n
n
n
Faster uptake of new services
n Increasing critical mass of users
n
n
n
Common look & feel
Transparent pricing by unified charging
Especially for person-to-person services
Like Peer-to-peer Real time Multimedia
Stimulation of additional voice calls
n Induced by increased usage of data services
Information and Communication
51
Acceptance of Mobile Data Services
Prerequisites for Successful Mobile Data Services:
§
§
§
§
§
§
Personalized and highly customized
More individual bandwidth
Always-on
Global roaming
Seamless network, UMTS-GPRS-GSM
Rich multimedia services:
Information, transaction, entertainment
⇓
my services, anytime, anywhere, on my device
Information and Communication
52
26
The Future has already started:
Provided service
many mobile data services can be deployed today
Video
Video conferencing
conferencing
Video
Video telephony
telephony
Teleshopping
Teleshopping
Electronic
Electronic newspaper
newspaper
Images
Images // sound
sound files
files
2G
3G
Telebanking
Telebanking
Financial
Financial services
services
Database
Database access
access
Information
Information services
services
E-mail
E-mail
Voice
Voice
10 kbps
100 kbps
1 Mbps
10 Mbps
n Many data services are also possible with 2.5G but
only 3G allows for sufficient simultaneous service of users
n 3G delivers seamless services from narrowband to broadband
and will support flexible bandwidth on demand up to 2 Mbps per cell
Information and Communication
53
Presentation’s Roadmap
Next Generation Networks
Challenges
NGNs‘ components
xDSL
Mobile
WLAN
Network Convergence
Conclusions
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The strategic importance of WLAN
dominates the wireless Industry …
Strategic Keys
World -wide WLAN Vendor Revenues (bn
(bn $)
4,0
3,5
3,0
Public:
Market Education
for mobile data
public
home
enterprise
2,5
Home:
2,0
Convergence for
voice and data
1,5
1,0
Enterprise:
0,5
Complementation
of IT Infrastructure
0,0
2002
Source: ICM N M
2003
2004
2005
… as revenue potentials are moderate for vendors and …
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… their Customers like MNOs
World -wide WLAN Hot Spot
Service Revenues and Users
3
25
75 000 Hot Spots
2,5
20
bn $
15
1,5
10
mil Users
2
Service
Revenues
Public Users
1
5
0,5
0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: ICM N M
“We have a black zero business case, but we need to be in the
driver seat for mobile data to keep competition (FNOs, ISPs) out”
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Wireless must trade-off Throughput for Mobility & Range
n Mobile radio access networks are designed to meet certain maximum requirements
for grade of mobility and range
n WLANs are designed for high data rates, low ranges and generally low mobility
Mobility & Range
High Speed
Vehicular
Rural
Vehicular
Urban
GSM
3G/UMTS
Pedestrian
IEEE 802.11a
Indoor
Fixed urban
Personal Area
DECT
BlueTooth
0.5
BRAN
Hiperaccess
BRAN
Hiperlan2
2
20
155 Mbps
Total data
rate per cell
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WLAN and 3G will be complementary
n
WLAN provides a viable cordless data solution for quasi stationary
use:
n
n
for corporate and campus scenarios
for nomadic (business) users in the public hotspot environments
n
The coupling of WLAN and cellular should be as „soft“ as possible
in order not to overburden the individual systems
n
Economies of scale rely on mainstream WLAN technology;
proprietary solutions destroy the power of the embedded base
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