What Not to Wear
(As Regulatory Policy)
Current Issues 2011
The Santa Fe Conference
New Mexico State University
Center for Public Utilities
Remarks of
Ron Binz, Chairman
Colorado Public Utilities Commission
March 15, 2011
Outline of this presentation
• CapEx for US Electric Supply 2010-2030
– With and without carbon regulation
• How big is the challenge?
– EPRI Prism/Merge
– Brattle Group Analysis
– International Energy Agency Analysis
• What are the regional differences?
• What changes are needed in our regulatory and
policy tools?
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EPRI Prism/Merge
Efficiency
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Retrofit CCS
New CCS
Non-CCS Coal
Efficiency
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Retrofit CCS
New CCS
Non-CCS Coal
What would this 2030 portfolio cost?
Brattle Group CapEx Estimate
EIA Regional Groupings
Brattle Group CapEx Estimate
Brattle Group CapEx Estimate
Implications of Brattle Group Estimates
Between 2010 and 2030
• Net assets of electric utilities will increase to approximately
$2.16 trillion from today’s $1.10 trillion, an increase of 93%.
• Approximate new capacity additions for selected states:
– Texas: 23,400 MW
– Florida: 12,200 MW
– Illinois: 11,000 MW
– Ohio: 8,500 MW
– Pennsylvania: 6,300 MW
– New York: 5,400 MW
– Colorado: 2,500 MW
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International Energy Agency View
$0.57 T
$1.79 T
$2.36 Trillion
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Implications for State Regulation
• Strong upward pressure on rates
• Strong pressure on utility balance sheets, earnings
– Highest capital requirements ever
• Frequent rate cases
– Regulatory system will be severely stressed
• Heightened need for additional EE and DR
• Traditional markets
– Heightened need for integrated planning
– New look at prudence reviews
– New regulatory techniques
• For organized markets
– Increased pressure to solve impediments to new transmission
and generation
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Thank you.
I look forward to your questions.
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