iii
Preface
This report documents a May 2000 initiative by the Office of Energy Efficiency
and Renewable Energy (EERE) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to
identify and assess a range of emerging issues that may affect future energy use
and supply. EERE contracted with RAND’s Science and Technology Policy
Institute to plan and execute a strategic planning project. The project’s purpose
was to explore possible new approaches to energy supply and use, identify key
issues EERE will face, and consider the implications for EERE’s research and
development (R&D) portfolio. EERE was interested in developing a systematic
process to better understand the implications of emerging issues for future R&D,
federal assistance programs, public information dissemination, education, and
technical training.
The project had three parts: (1) a conference called E-Vision 2000, held October
11–13, 2000 in Washington, D.C., including presentation of invited papers; (2) an
assessment of long-range planning scenarios currently used in the energy
community; and (3) a structured process to identify a set of critical energy issues
in 2020 to inform the EERE R&D portfolio, as viewed by a range of experts.
This report summarizes the issues raised and suggestions made for future
research by the participants in and attendees of the E-Vision 2000 conference. It
also summarizes the key insights derived from RAND’s scenario analysis and
expert elicitation and includes abstracts of papers some of the panelists
submitted.
RAND played the roles of conference convener, organizer, and integrator and
compiled summaries of issues and comments. However, it should be noted that
this report is not intended to reflect RAND’s thinking on the subject of energy
R&D but rather the views of the many participants in the E-Vision 2000 process.
This volume presents supplementary materials—conference papers and
additional analyses—developed for the E-Vision 2000 Conference, October 11–13,
2000, in Washington, D.C.
iv
The S&T Policy Institute
Originally created by Congress in 1991 as the Critical Technologies Institute and
renamed in 1998, the Science and Technology Policy Institute is a federally
funded research and development center sponsored by the National Science
Foundation and managed by RAND. The Institute's mission is to help improve
public policy by conducting objective, independent research and analysis on
policy issues that involve science and technology. To this end, the Institute.
1.
Supports the Office of Science and Technology Policy and other Executive
Branch agencies, offices, and councils
2.
Helps science and technology decisionmakers understand the likely
consequences of their decisions and choose among alternative policies
3.
Helps improve understanding in both the public and private sectors of the
ways in which science and technology can better serve national objectives.
Science and Technology Policy Institute research focuses on problems of science
and technology policy that involve multiple agencies. In carrying out its mission,
the Institute consults broadly with representatives from private industry,
institutions of higher education, and other nonprofit institutions.
Inquiries regarding the Science and Technology Policy Institute may be directed
to the addresses below.
Bruce Don
Director
Science and Technology Policy Institute
RAND
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050
Phone: (703) 413-1100 x5351
Web: http://www.rand.org/scitech/stpi/
Email: stpi@rand.org