Future and Foresight
HNR 302-004H
Fall 2013
Wednesdays 2:35- 05:15PM
Prof. Erran Carmel & John Mahaffie
Honors course at American University, Washington D.C.
Future: The purpose of
future studies is to discover
or invent, examine and
evaluate and propose
possible, probable, and
preferable futures. Futurists seek to know
what can or could be (this is the possible),
what is likely to be (this is the probable)
and what ought to be (the preferable).
(Wendell Bell p.73).
CLASSROOM
CREDITS
INSTRUCTORS
OFFICE
PHONE
EMAIL
OFFICE HOURS
e are poor predictors of the future, typically anticipating that
which exists today will exist in the future. We think linearly
rather than employing basic tools of foresight. The linear
forecasting fallacy is, for example, on record when luminaries came
together for the 1893 Chicago World’s Fair and were asked to forecast
100 years forward. The US Treasury Secretary predicted that the
railroad would still be the fastest means of travel in 1993.
W
The dual goals of this class are for each student to develop an
anticipatory consciousness and, second, to equip each student with
methods and first-hand experience in a future study.
Hughes 102. (yes, the classroom in the Hughes dorm across from Kogod)
3
Professor Erran Carmel
John Mahaffie
KSB 36
202.885.1928
202.271.0444
carmel@american.edu
jbmahaffie@leadingfuturists.biz
Mahaffie@american.edu
 Wednesday after class; Also Tue/Fri
 Wednesday after class
 Also, drop by any time
 Also, by appointment
 Also, by appointment
COURSE GRADING
Semester Project
Class Participation
Reading discussion online (inc SciFi)
Final Paper
Misc.
Total
Syllabus – Future and Foresight 2013
Due
Almost every meeting
Every meeting
Almost every meeting
End of semester
1
Points
50
15
15
15
5
100
Schedule
1st half
1
2nd half: usually
project focused
Intro
The great
predictors
Aug 28
Class logistics
Sep. 11
3
eve of Rosh Hashana
Predictions,
alternative
futures,
forecasting,
definitions
Sep 4
2
What do futurists
do?
Retrospective
exercise
Systems
thinking, Trends,
Environmental
Scanning,
Drivers
Guest 1: Jerry
Glenn
Setting up project
teams
Introducing the
Six Step Futures
Study Model
(FSM)
Orientation:
serving clients
and our client
organizations
Readings and other content due for that day.
App/Meth: Applied or Methodology reading
Theo/Intlc: Theoretical or Intellectual reading
Theo/Intlc:
Great predictors (choose any 3)
 Winston Churchill, “Fifty Years Hence,” 1931, full essay: [Link]
 Marquis de Condorcet, The Future Progress of the Human Mind, 1796, excerpt: [Link]
 How Accurate Are Your Forecasts? More Accurate than You Might Think, by Andy
Hines, World Future Review October-November 2009. [Link]
 Arthur Clarke 1964 video: http://youtu.be/FxYgdX2PxyQ
Jerry Glenn, our first guest: The millennium project/ the state of the future, 2012 edition,
Skim this Executive Summary [LINK] and this website: http://www.themp.org/
Theo/Intlc:
Cornish: 1: Introduction
Cornish: 12,13,14: Predictions and a history of the future.
Brockman: 9 Csikszentmihalyi, The Future of Happiness
Review
App/Meth:
John Mahaffie, foresightculture.com blog, “What do futurists really do?” [Link]
Theo/Intlc:
Cornish: 2,3,4,7 Eras, super-trends, change, trends.
Brockman: 7 Paul Bloom – Toward a theory of moral development
FSM Step 1:
Framing the
enquiry
FSM Step 2.
Environ’
scanning / trend
analysis
Syllabus – Future and Foresight 2013
Project work due
that day. Details
further below.
None
2
Systems Diagram
2nd half: usually
project focused
Guest2
FSM Step 2.
Environmental
scanning / trend
analysis
(continued)
5
Sep
25
Sep 18
4
1st half
Tech futures
(Singularity and
more)
FSM Step 3:
Issues
identification
ec away
Oct 9
7
Futures Wheel –
interpreting
drivers and
trends
FSM Step 4:
Wildcard analysis
Scenarios
FSM Step 5:
Scenarios (jm)
Oct 16
8
Oct
23
9
Scenarios with clients (perhaps at
client site)
Syllabus – Future and Foresight 2013
Project work due
that day. Details
further below.
Trends
App/Meth:
 Jarratt and Mahaffie, “Reframing the Future,” Journal of Futures Studies, May 2009,
13(4): pp. 5 – 12, [LINK]
 Cornish: 6, Methods.
Question list
Kickoff at client site
Oct 2
6
Readings and other content due for that day.
App/Meth: Applied or Methodology reading
Theo/Intlc: Theoretical or Intellectual reading
Theo/Intlc:
Brockman: 2, Reels, Are We Alone?
Theo/Intlc:
Brockman: 16, Brooks. The merger of flesh and machines.
App/Meth:
 Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near – Skim the book; watch the movie
Transcendent Man.
 Issues management reading TBD
Theo/Intlc:
 Cornish: 9, Wild Cards
 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. You
are encouraged to skim this book in its original, but absent that read summaries of it on the
net.
 Brockman, 18, Roger Schank-- are we going to get smarter?
App/Meth:
 The “Cliff’s Notes” version of scenarios: Wired Guide to Personal Scenario Planning”
[Link]
 Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers, “Living in the Futures,” Harvard Business Review,
May 2013. [A pretty substantial summary of it is outside their paywall: [Link], else read it
at AU.
 Cornish: 8, Scenarios (skim this. it’s not a strong chapter, but has some pluses)
 Kristin Alford / Bridge8 (Adelaide), “Thinking ahead: Looking at the possible impacts of
emerging technologies” [Video] Utility fog example
 Heather Schlegel / Innotribe, “Fly me to the moon, aka Dinner with friends” [Video], live
action scenario depiction on the future of money
App/Meth:
3
Plan
Issues
Wild Cards
Scenario
scaffolding.
Tech futures
FSM Step 6.
Interpreting
results
Strategy v
foresight
Nov 6
11
2nd half: usually
project focused
JM in Doha
Oct 30
10
1st half
13
Nov
JM in Houston
Practice
Nov 13
12
Old and New
Futures methods:
Delphi; Prediction
markets; Found
Futures; Design
futures
Old and New
Futures methods,
continued inc.
Integral futures
Readings and other content due for that day.
App/Meth: Applied or Methodology reading
Theo/Intlc: Theoretical or Intellectual reading
Theo/Intlc:
Brockman 13: Dawkins’ Son Of Moore’s Law
The professional predictors: Stratfor, Gartner’s hype curve, more. Readings TBD.
Theo/Intlc:
Brockman 20: David Gelernter, Tapping into the beam (capturing our lives).
Brockman 22: Harris, What makes us the way we are a view from 2050
Criticizing the future: Richard Slaughter overview on integral futures: “Integral Futures,”
2012 [Link]
Draft including
recommendations
Theo/Intlc:
The Dystopians: Huxley’s Brave New World, Orwell’s 1984; Brin’s Earth; Halal and
Marien’s “Global Megacrisis: A Survey of Four Scenarios on a Pessimism-Optimism Axis”
[Link]
The Utopians: Looking Backward: 2000-1887, by Edward Bellamy, first published in 1887.
[Available free via Google Books, here]; Modern techno-utopian: Kurzweil, singularity
(movie, book, excerpt)
Advanced draft
Presentation and
report
Final Presentation at client site
20
14
Nov
27
Dec
4
NO CLASS Thanksgiving
Guest3
Post mortem
Theo/Intlc:
Brockman, 24, Etcoff, Brain scans, wearables…
Foods of future
15
Dec
16
Project work due
that day. Details
further below.
Scenarios- final
No class
Syllabus – Future and Foresight 2013
Task3: Semester (small) paper.
4
Post mortem
Task 1: Futures Consulting Project
Students will work on an actual futures consulting project throughout the semester and present
their futures in written and verbal forms to the client. This is the major course activity. Two DC
based clients have been lined up this semester. Both are large Washington associations/trade
groups representing broad swathes of our American economic, technological and social life. The
students will be split into two teams.
Project tasks and weekly deliverables are team deliverables that appear below. Each is 1 page
unless noted otherwise. You can go over one page if needed.
Due by Week number:
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
Review. Review your organization’s website and be sure to understand each organization’s mission and
activities. Be ready to discuss. No deliverable on paper. Individual assignment just this once.
System Diagram. Summarize your client’s “System” in a diagram, including the elements of the organization
and its sector, and the stakeholders. Where does it fit in the larger picture?
Trends. Identify and list the critical trends in your clients work, mission, and sector.
Question list. Understand your assigned client’s interests and webpage further in preparation for the visits.
Build a question list to ask client.
Plan. Prepare a workplan that includes individuals and organizations to interview as well as sources to consult.
Issues. Identification of emerging issues that will or could affect your clients interests
Wild cards. Identification of wildcards for your client’s interests, sector
Scenario scaffolding. Prepare handouts and materials for scenario development including 2-4 scenario
narratives. For this prepare multiple pages and multiple copies.
Scenarios final. Finalize scenarios as narratives, with appropriate illustrations, interpretations. More than one
page is needed here.
Draft including recommendations. Prepare recommendations and summary report for your client. Multiple
pages.
Advanced draft. Presentation and report drafts. Many pages.
Presentation and report- final versions. Many pages.
Post mortem. Summarize key learnings. List what your team did well and where it will improve next time.
Task 2: Readings Assignment
Do assigned readings. If reading doesn’t have specific instructions, then there are two
expectations for each: discuss the reading online and be prepared to discuss in class.
Spirit of online discussions: students should demonstrate that they have done the readings.
Discussion should generally be based on evidence (from the readings and other sources) and not
“feelings.” Online discussion should be (as the word connotes) a reaction to others comments.
Also, avoid pithy statements like “that’s a good point” as your main contribution to dialogue.
Online forum for this class: TBD
Task3: Semester (small) paper.
There is a lot of flexibility on this paper after the effort and anxiety of the consulting project.
Topic can be practical or conceptual. You must receive approval from the instructor on the topic.
The length is flexible, but there must be depth. There must be evidence (or literature-based
arguments). Feelings are not acceptable.
Syllabus – Future and Foresight 2013
5
Xtra task: Science Fiction (SciFi) Futures
We can learn much about the future from SciFi. Prepare a very brief presentation to class (a few minutes) about one
learning from SciFi. Choose from a SciFi book (e.g., I Robot), a SciFi video (e.g., Jetsons), a comic, a movie (e.g.,
2001, Minority Report, Gattaca). Answer: What did the source predict right? What did it predict that gave you
pause? Identify products in your SciFi source that became a reality and those that did not. Explain why. Also, make
it fun. Write comments on the class online forum.
Guest Speakers
Confirmed:
 Jerry Glenn, founder and longtime Director of the UN’s Millennium Project of the World Federation. He
coordinated research behind 11 annual "State of the Future" reports
 Michael R. Nelson Now at Bloomberg, formally at IBM and Science Advisor to Al Gore. Nelson will examine
science futures Link
 Derek Woodgate is a futurist with a focus on music, the arts, and the future of learning. He will join us remotely
from his office in Atlanta.
Readings
Websites to visit/ scan on a regular basis. We instructors get some of these daily in our email box
 Singularity http://www.good.is/post/singularity-101-what-is-the-singularity/ Sign up to its newsletter.





Futurethinkblog http://futurethinktank.com/
Gizmag Emerging Technology Magazine Sign up to its newsletter.
http://www.impactlab.com/
World Future Society http:// http://www.wfs.org/ Sign up to its newsletter.
Arstechnica http://arstechnica.com/
Required books:
Both books can be purchased, used, on Amazon, for pennies.


Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, by Edward Cornish
The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-first Century edited by John Brockman
Academic Integrity. Academic integrity is paramount in higher education and essential to effective teaching and learning.
As a professional school, the Kogod School of Business is
committed to preparing our students and graduates to value the notion of integrity. In fact, no issue at American University is more serious or addressed with greater severity than a breach of
academic integrity. Standards of academic conduct are governed by the University’s Academic Integrity Code. By enrolling in the School and registering for this course, you acknowledge your
familiarity with the Code and pledge to abide by it. All suspected violations of the Code will be immediately referred to the Office of the Dean. Disciplinary action, including failure for the
course, suspension, or dismissal, may result. Additional information about the Code (i.e. acceptable forms of collaboration, definitions of plagiarism, use of sources including the Internet, and the
adjudication process) can be found in a number of places including the University’s Academic Regulations, Student Handbook, and website at <http://www.american.edu/academics/integrity>. If
you have any questions about academic integrity or standards of conduct in this course, please discuss them with your instructor.
Academic Support Services. If you experience difficulty in this course for any reason, please don’t
hesitate to consult with me. In addition to the resources of the department, a wide range of services is
available to support you in your efforts to meet the course requirements. Academic Support Center (x3360,
MGC 243) offers study skills workshops, individual instruction, tutor referrals, and services for students with
learning disabilities. Writing support is available in the ASC Writing Lab or in the Writing Center, Battelle
228. Counseling Center (x3500, MGC 214) offers counseling and consultations regarding personal concerns,
self-help information, and connections to off-campus mental health resources. Disability Support Services
(x3315, MGC 206) offers technical and practical support and assistance with accommodations for students
with physical, medical, or psychological disabilities. If you qualify for accommodations because of a
disability, please notify me in a timely manner with a letter from the Academic Support Center or Disability
Support Services so that we can make arrangements to address your needs.
Pandemic Planning. In the event of a declared pandemic (influenza or other communicable disease),
American University will implement a plan for meeting the needs of all members of the university
community. Should the university be required to close for a period of time, we are committed to ensuring that
all aspects of our educational programs will be delivered to our students. These may include altering and
extending the duration of the traditional term schedule to complete essential instruction in the traditional format and/or use of distance instructional methods. Specific strategies will vary from
class to class, depending on the format of the course and the timing of the emergency. Faculty will communicate class-specific information to students via AU e-mail and Blackboard, while
students must inform their faculty immediately of any absence due to illness. Students are responsible for checking their AU e-mail regularly and keeping themselves informed of emergencies.
In the event of a declared pandemic or other emergency, students should refer to the AU Web site (www. prepared. american.edu) and the AU information line at (202) 885-1100 for general
university-wide information, as well as contact their faculty and/or respective dean’s office for course and school/ college-specific information.
Margaret Thatcher said in 1970 “It
will be years before a woman either
leads the Conservative Party or
becomes prime minister. I don’t see
it happening in my time”
Thatcher was elected PM in 1979.
Syllabus – Future and Foresight 2013
6