JP7.4
Optimizing the Impact of GOES Sounder Products in Very-short-range Forecasts - Recent Results and Future Plans
Ralph Petersen1 and Robert Aune2
1Cooperative
Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), University of Wisconsin – Madison
NESDIS/Advanced Satellite Products Team, Madison, Wisconsin
2 NOAA/NESDIS/ORA,
UW-Madison
PLANS/ISSUES
BACKGROUND
Expand Stability Indices Available from NearCasts
Analysis of Divergence/Deformation Growth using 850 hPa
NearCast Trajectories made from an initially regular 40 km grid
using RUC-II Initial Winds, Heights and Height Tendencies
Hourly Sequence of Parcel Locations
and NearCast Wind Speeds (shading)
Note: Development of Divergence to West and Convergence/Deformation to East of Wind Maxima
Strength of
Local Convergence Maximum
Doubles in 3 hours
Reducing Growth of Divergence in Wind NearCasts
Hourly Sequence
Divergence from 0-3 hr NearCast Winds
Sequence of Hourly
Divergence Changes from 0-3 hr NearCast Winds
.
.
Convergence Increases in area of Large Deformation
Sample NearCast of GEOS Moisture Products
(Total Deformation extremes made up of similar magnitude Shearing and Stretching Deformation)
NWS SSDs requested test of utility of NearCast of
GOES Low-level Moisture into organized (frontal) precipitation events
Radar Observations
NearCast of GOES
Precipitable Water
2 hr NearCast
From 1600 UTC
900-700 hPa
NearCasts of GOES
Low-Level Precipitable
H2O observations from
Clear Region
South of Alabama
Correctly Identified
Movement of
Moisture into
Large Precipitation
Development Area
Note: GOES PW data
not used in NWP
0 hr NearCast
From 1600 UTC
5 hr NearCast
From 1600 UTC
Case 1) Shows value of GOES moisture observations & 2) Revalidates ability of
NearCast to move IR data into cloudy areas after obs. became unavailable
Hourly Sequence
Total Deformation from 0-3 hr NearCast Winds
ACKNOWLEDGMENT: This work was supported by the NESDIS
GOES-R Risk Reduction Project through the NESDIS-UW CIMSS agreement.
Contact: Ralph A. Petersen, Ralph.Petersen@ssec.wisc.edu
Analysis of Lagrangian Kinematic Tendencies shows that
Limiting the Growth of Divergence in first few hours of mesoscale
prediction requires control of both:
1) Ageostrophy (Divergence) and 2) especially Deformation
in the initial analyses
.