West Midlands Arson Taskforce
Andy Brumwell
GIS Crime Mapping Researcher
West Midlands Police
West Midlands Arson Taskforce
West Midlands Area = 2.6 million people
West Midlands Police = 8,500 Police Officers
Cover 350 sq miles
Decrease Arson by 10% by 2009/10 from 2001/02
baseline
Increase detection rates for Arson
Data Sharing Initiative:
•Police receive Fire Service
incident data every month.
•Arson & accidental incidents
•Vehicle
•Property
•Outdoor (e.g. grassfires railway embankments)
Data Sharing Initiative:
Property Arson
2002 = 2,350
2003 = 2,404
Vehicle Arson
2002 = 4,652
2003 = 4,321
Outdoor Arson
2002 = 13,414
2003 = 19,767
Scale of the
Problem
4,321 vehicle arsons in
2003
Average height of 1 car
is 4.5 feet
4321*4.5ft = 19,444 feet
Empire State Building = 1,454ft
(excluding height of King Kong)
Over 13 Empire State
Buildings!!
Mapping Point Level Data
Mapping Vehicle Arsons - 2003
Mapping Vehicle Arson – Change 2002 to 2003
Vehicle Arson – hotspots
Vehicle Arson – specific locations
& Environmental Scanning
Comparison of
Fire Service & Police Data
2003
(all Fire Service arsons)
Comparison of
Fire Service & Police Data
2003
(Fire Service property & vehicle arsons only)
Differences in Definitions
Fire Service:
•Malicious, dubious & deliberate ignition
Police:
Police:
•Won’t turn up to a grass fire
•Need a “victim” and someone who will make a
complaint.
•Low priority – not a Key Performance Indicator (KPI)
offence
•Stolen car subsequently torched will be recorded as
a theft of motor vehicle (often no mention of arson)
Detection Rates by Crime Type – 2003
All Crime
25%
Burglary – residential
17%
Theft of Motor Vehicle
15%
Arson
6%
Analysis of Offenders &
Journey to Crime (J2C)
April 1999 to January 2004
Individual Offenders
199,460
Individual Arsonists
1,418
Offender movements
(participations)
515,742
J2C analysis
412,400
J2C arson
1,407
J2C arsonists (all crimes)
8,538
Age of Offenders Arrested for Arson
•Peak age for offending is 15 to 17 (or at least getting
caught !!)
•25% in this 3 year age group alone.
•52% of offenders are aged 18 or under
Gender of Offenders Arrested for Arson
•Nearly 90% males
•1421 out of 1620 arrests
Average Distance (miles) Travelled to
Commit Crime by Type
Theft from Shop
2.6 miles
52,000
Theft of Motor Vehicle
2.0 miles
17,300
Robbery – personal
2.0 miles
10,300
All Crimes
1.8 miles
412,400
Burglary – residential
1.7 miles
15,700
Arson
0.9 miles
1,407
Distance (miles) Travelled to Commit
Arson
•49% of arsonists travel no more than 0.25 miles to
commit arson
•63% travel no more than 0.5 miles to commit arson
•70% travel no more than 0.75 miles
•75% travel no more than 1 mile
Average Distance (miles) Travelled to Commit
Crime by Age – Arson and Non-Arson Crimes
•Distance Travelled to Commit Arson consistently lower that
that for other crimes - Across ALL age groups
•Aged 10 arsonists travel on average 0.1 mile
•Aged 12 arsonists travel on average 0.7 miles
•Aged 17 arsonists travel on average 1.0 miles
Arrests made on Arsonists by Crime Type,
April 1999 to January 2004
•Arsonists are PROLIFIC & MULTI-FACETED criminals
•On average for every 1 arson arrest, they have been arrested for a
further 5.4 offences
•They commit over ALL crime type offences
•Also prolific in Violence against the Person & Theft of Motor Vehicle
•They are therefore often known to the Police
Comparative Average Distances Travelled by
Arsonists & Non-Arsonists by Crime Type
•Arsonists consistently travel Less Distance to Commit Crime with the
exception of Robbery (personal and business)
•Overall they have a average J2C 22% less than non-arsonists
•Robbery – personal is 30% higher
How prolific ?
•1418 individual
arsonists
•1620 arrests for arson
Sole or multiple offenders ?
•Majority are sole
offenders
•3 arsons resulted in the
co-arrest of 5
individuals
Mapping Arsonist Home and Crime Locations
Deleted
Mapping Arsonist Home and Crime Locations
Deleted
Mapping Arsonist Home and Crime Locations
Deleted
Cross Matching Police & Fire Data
for Vehicle Recovery
•Improve positional accuracy &
•Number of recovery locations (10%)
Future Developments and Further Work
•PROJECT SPECTROM – 3 typologies
•FLINTS
•Recent Appointment of Full Time Analyst
•Regional Database
•Updates direct to Local OCU analysts
•Analyse vulnerability factors
•Improve Data Quality
(e.g. vehicle recovery sites possibly using WMFS database)
improve grid referencing of home location of defendants
www.wmarsontaskforce.gov.uk
Andy Brumwell
a.brumwell@west-midlands.police.uk
www.cosmos-bcsp.com
Steve Rose
s.rose@west-midlands.police.uk