Solar forcing of the Earth's
climate on multi-decadal time
scales Alexander Ruzmaikin
Joan Feynman,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
California Institute of Technology
Motivation
v  The extended solar minimum at the beginning of 21st century resembles
the minima in the beginning of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries
v  Solar influence on the Earth’s climate studies have been focused on 11year cycle. Centennial time scale have not been well investigated
v  The spatial pattern of the Earth’s temperature caused by the solar
influence
v  The climate hiatus in the beginning of the 21st century may be caused by
the solar variability
Centennial Gleissberg Cycle (CGC)
200
CGC min
SSN
150
100
50
0
1700
1710
1720
1730
1740
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
200
CGC min
SSN
150
100
50
0
1800
1810
1820
90-110 year quasi-periodic
modulation of 11-year cycle
amplitude
200
CGC min
SSN
150
100
50
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
2030
2040
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
200
SSN
150
CGC min
100
50
0
2000
2010
2020
Time
CGC recorded in 450 AD - 1450 AD (auroras)
--Feynman & Fougere (1988), Ruzmaikin et al. (2006)
10
CGC recorded in Be, 14C
-- Beer et al. (2007), Ogurtsov et al. (2013), Usoskin (2013)
CGC in TSI Wavelet
TSI from G. Kopp at www.lasp/SORCE) 11-year cycle scale
centennial scale
CGC Mode (80-110 yrs band)
CGC from new sunspot counts
250
a
SSN
200
SSN (Cle;e et al., 2015) 150
100
50
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
4
b
11-year cycle scale
Period (yrs)
8
16
32
centennial scale
64
128
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
3
c
2
CGC
1
0
CGC Mode (80-110 yrs)
−1
−2
−3
1750
1800
1850
Time (yrs)
1900
1950
2000
CGC Minima
ü  Auroral Minima in (450 - 1450) record (G. Siscoe)
ü  Beginning of 18th century (1710 - 1720 end of MM)
ü  Beginning of 19th century (1800 - 1820, Dalton min)
ü  Beginning of 20th century (1900 - 1920, Gleissberg-Feynman-Crooker min)
ü  Beginning of 21th century (2006 - ? , Silverman min)
CGC variation in Solar Irradiance Measured solar Irradiance decreases in
three successive minima (Rind, 2009)
The Earth TOA Net Energy Forcing the Earth’s Climate
on the Centennial Time Scale
Anecdotal Evidence 19th century CGC minimum
Year without summer: solar and/or Tambora?
ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/europe-­‐seasonal-­‐files/ 19th century CGC minimum
in Land Temperature
Temperature data from Berkley Earth Project, Rohde et al. (2013) 20th century CGC minimum
Scott Expedition, 1910-13,
the coldest winter in Antarctica (-77F)
Susan Solomon’s book (2002)
April 1912, Titanic Did sunspots kill Titanic?
45° “extreme and prolonged low sunspot-­‐number regime reversed the dearth of southern icebergs in the North AtlanVc” (E. N. Lawrence, Weather, 2000) 21st century CGC minimum
Winters in USA, Europe and Asia were cooler than
normal: deep chill Jan 2006, Jan 2008, Dec 2010,
Feb 2012
2014 N. America cold wave
Noaa_current_snow_ice_canada_usa
Global Land
Temperature & TSI
Centennial modes
Cross Correlation
of TSI and T
Data: extended TSI Krivova et al. (2007)
T Land Rohde et al. (2013)
A 1D Model of Ocean Response
Hoffert et al, 1980
Model predicts a phase shifted periodic Tem
response to a periodic forcing
Only mixed layer involved on 11-year scale.
Phase shift 3-4 years
Deep ocean engaged on centennial time
scale. Phase shift (time lag) increases.
Hoffert et al., 1980
CCSM3 Modeling
of Ocean Response
Positive SST & TSI correlation consistent with
a direct, thermal forcing of the sea surface.
SST response to 90-year periodic [sin (TSI)]
forcing lags by about 20 years.
Seidenglanz et al. 2012
Distinguish"
Global Mean
-- ‘global temperature’
Deviations from Global Mean
-- appear as spatial patterns of preserved shape
but changing magnitude; naturally generated by
non-linear, noisy atmosphere-ocean system
Search for climate pattern
associated with CGC
COWL pattern
COWL pattern has the highest pdf reflecting
dynamics of atmosphere (Corti et al., 1999)
Tland = TCOWL + Tres
TCOWL is dynamically tied to atmosphere
Tres
is radiatively driven
(Wallace et al., 1995)
First 2 EOFs
account for half of variance
Quadrelli & Wallace, 2004
Climate Patterns associated with
solar variability
11-­‐year cycle North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO), related to NAM
CGC Pacific North American
(PNA) TSI W/m2 Projection of
Surface
Temperatue
(1850-1999) on
(a)TSI,
(b)Tcentennial and
(c)PNA index
Temperature, centennial mode oC PNA index Reconstructed by Trouet and Taylor(2010) Conclusions
²  CGC influences the Earth’s climate. Response to CGC forcing engages
the deep ocean
²  The temperature response to CGC is phase delayed by about 10-20 yrs
²  PNA is a major climate pattern associated with CGC
The End
North Hemisphere
Temperature & TSI
Centennial mode
Cross Correlation
Data extended: TSI Krivova et al. (2007)
T NH Mann et al. (1999) detrended for CO2 rise
250
a
SSN
200
150
100
50
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
4
b
Period (yrs)
8
16
32
64
128
4
Global Sp.
4
3
x 10
100yr
c
2
1
0
4
8
16
32
64
128
Period (yrs)
Period (yrs)
5.2
6.1
7.3
d
8.7
10.3
12.3
14.6
17.4
1750
1800
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
1850
1900
1950
2000
3
CGC
2
e
1
0
−1
−2
−3
Time (yrs)
Spectra for
new sunspot
count