Putting climate change theory into practice for wildlife and wild land conservation
Molly S. Cross1, Gary M. Tabor2, NCEAS Climate Change and Wildlife Conservation Working Group3
1
Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT (mcross@wcs.org); 2 Center for Large Landscape Conservation, Bozeman, MT;
3 National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA
Introduction
We are developing a climate change
adaptation planning framework that brings
together local science and management
expertise to generate a portfolio of adaptation
strategies that consider the geographic,
ecological, and social contexts which are
central to developing effective management.
A conservation target can be a species,
ecological process or plant community.
The management objective defines the
desired condition of that target.
CLIMATE DRIVERS
Combined rough ecological and climate
change impact assessments to generate and
evaluate a portfolio of adaptation strategies.
The adaptation planning framework is an
iterative process intended to consider:
• multiple climate change scenarios
• multiple management objectives
• multiple conservation targets
A comparison of adaptation portfolios from
each iteration reveals the robustness of actions
to future climate uncertainty, and varying
management objectives.
We are working with GYE managers to
conduct additional iterations and further refine
the framework.
Table 1. Selected examples of intervention points and management options for Yellowstone
River instream flows for cutthroat trout, given the climate change scenario we examined.
Example Intervention Points
Temperature
Snowpack
Example Management Options
Snowpack management
Install high elevation snow fences
High elevation streamflow
Create temporary catchments at high elevation
Beaver management
Restore and/or protect beaver populations
Stream engineering
Remove, add or modify riprap, levees, bank
hardening
Management of non-climate stressors
Control grazing around springs and spring
creeks; encourage water conservation in urban
areas; limit use of roads that cross streams
Riparian management
Restore riparian vegetation; control grazing in
riparian areas
Management of upland forests
Protect forest cover; manage forest composition
Snowmelt timing
Precipitation (amount + variability)
2. Define climate
change scenario
Considered an initial focal system and climate
change scenario → instream flows on the
Yellowstone River in 2020-2030.
Identify the components of the system that management can affect, and the types of actions
that can be taken at those points to address climate change impacts.
Warmer and drier; increased variability; decreased snowpack; earlier snowmelt
We selected the Greater Yellowstone
Ecosystem as an initial pilot study location to
test the adaptation planning framework.
Greater Yellowstone pilot
study
4. Identify intervention points and management options
FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIO
1. Identify target and
management objective
Select the time period and
spatial scale being examined,
and define future climate
scenario.
TARGET
Yellowstone River
instream flows
(quantity, timing,
temperature)
for
Yellowstone
cutthroat trout
3. Build ecological
model and assess
climate change
impacts
Determine the climate,
ecological and socioeconomic
factors in the system, how they
are interconnected, and how
they are likely to be impacted
by the selected climate change
scenario.
5. Evaluate management actions
ECOLOGICAL
DRIVERS
Beaver activity
HUMAN
DRIVERS
Evaluate identified management actions based on their effectiveness (e.g.,
ability to effect target), feasibility (e.g., political, economic, social),
robustness to varying the climate change scenario and/or management
objective, and the ability to measure and monitor success.
Wildfire
Withdrawals (e.g., irrigation)
Ex/urban development
Co-Authors + Acknowledgements
Upland forest structure
Riparian cover
Grazing
Figure 1. Simplified version of ecological model for instream flows on the Yellowstone River. Only
selected climate and non-climate drivers are depicted. For the pilot study, we considered a more thorough
list of drivers and sketched out connections between each component of the system.
Participants in the Climate Change and Wildlife Conservation Working Group include: Erika Zavaleta, Univ. of
California-Santa Cruz; Marjorie Brooks, Univ. of Wyoming; Molly Cross, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS);
Carolyn Enquist, The Nature Conservancy (TNC); Erica Fleishman, National Center for Ecological Analysis and
Synthesis; Lisa Graumlich, Univ. of Arizona; Craig Groves, TNC; Lee Hannah, Conservation International;
Gregory Hayward, US Forest Service + Univ. of Wyoming; Joshua Lawler, Univ. of Washington; Jay Malcolm,
Univ. of Toronto; Brian Petersen, Univ. of California-Santa Cruz; Sarah Shafer, US Geological Survey; Daniel
Scott, Univ. of Waterloo; Rebecca Shaw, TNC; Gary Tabor, Center for Large Landscape Conservation; John
Weaver, WCS. Funding was provided by the Kendall Foundation, Surdna Foundation and Marisla Foundation.