MtnClim 2008 Abstracts
060308a
Poster
A TALE OF TWO TAILS
ANDERSON, MICHAEL L.
California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA 95821
California's climate is a tale of extremes. In the southeast desert, temperatures can soar and little
precipitation falls. Contrast that with the north coast where temperatures fluctuate less, but precipitation
can soar. In the mountains of the Sierra Nevada, both temperature and precipitation can fluctuate wildly.
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Observations from the 20 century indicate that these wild fluctuations have become wilder in the latter
part of the century. In this tale of two tails, observations of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and
runoff are examined with a focus on mountain regions. Annual totals and averages, extremes, and yearto-year fluctuations are used to determine to what extent observations have become more extreme.
Some thoughts are then provided on the potential for future extreme evolution with climate change.
Poster
LINKING SOIL COMMUNITIES AND TREE SPECIES IN RELATION TO CARBON CYCLING IN HIGH
ELEVATION FORESTS
AYRES, EDWARD (1), STELTZER, HEIDI (1), WALL, DIANA H. (1,2)
(1) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory and (2) Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort
Collins, CO 80523-1499
There is some evidence to suggest that leaf litter decomposes faster beneath the tree species from which
it was derived than beneath a different tree species, which is called ‘home-field advantage’. We tested
this hypothesis for three common high elevation tree species, trembling aspen, lodgepole pine, and
Engelmann spruce, in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado. Leaf litter from each tree species was allowed
to decompose in stands dominated by each tree species in a factorial design. Litter mass loss was
greater (~8%) for each tree species when it decomposed in its ‘home’ stand (i.e. the stand dominated by
the same tree species), indicating that home-field advantage occurred. In a related laboratory experiment,
litter from each tree species decomposed in the presence of soil biota collected beneath each tree
species. Decomposition, measured as CO2 production, was greater for each tree species in the presence
of its ‘home’ soil biota (i.e. soil biota that occurred beneath the same tree species), indicating that soil
biota are responsible for home-field advantage. Climate change, bark beetle outbreaks, and other factors
are altering the structure of high elevation forests. However, tree species and soil communities may
respond differently to these drivers of change, which may disrupt the decomposition-related home-field
advantage and alter ecosystem carbon balance.
Poster
SOUTHERN SIERRA CRITICAL ZONE OBSERVATORY (CZO): HYDROCHEMICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, SCIENCE AND MEASUREMENT STATEGY
BALES, R. (1), BOYER, B. (2), CONKLIN, M. (1), GOULDEN, M. (3), HOPMANS, J. (4), HUNSAKER, C.
(5), JOHNSON, D. (6), KIRCHNER, J. (2), LIU, F. (1), AND TAGUE, C. (7)
(1) University of California, Merced, (2) University of California, Berkeley, (3) University of California,
Irvine, (4) University of California, Davis, (5) Pacific Southwest Research Station, US Forest Service, (6)
University of Nevada, and (7) University of California, Santa Barbara
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The Southern Sierra CZO is a platform for integrated, multi-disciplinary research that will provide a
process-level understanding of the critical zone, establish a foundation for long-term hydrologic,
(bio)geochemical and ecological studies, and improve the predictive ability of Earth system models. The
underlying hypothesis is that the distribution of soil moisture throughout the catchments controls
(bio)geochemical processes, including weathering and the extent of coupling among the carbon and
nitrogen cycles. Mixed conifer forest dominate the observatory, which is located in the rain-snow
transition zone (1,500-2,000 m), a zone that characteristically undergoes rapid seasonal changes, going
from snowcover to wet soil to dry soil over a 1-2 month period. Steep gradients in temperature and
precipitation patterns, along both elevation and aspect, result in a distinct lag in spring runoff in going
from lower to higher elevation. Streams draining the catchments are primarily sodium and calcium
bicarbonate waters. Stream total ion concentrations measured at the top of the catchments above are
about half of those at lower elevation. These streams exhibit a larger average pH range (6.7-7.1) than
those at lower elevation (7.2-7.1). The stepped topography is a landscape that provides links between soil
formation and weathering rates to landform evolution. Our spatial sampling strategy is to capture key
topographic features (slope, aspect, elevation, soil depth, streams) and use multiple tracers to
characterize both longer term processes (millennia) and short term responses to current conditions. Our
specific geochemical measurement strategy includes: i) year-round sampling of stream dissolved and
suspended material, ii) isotopic, geochemical sampling to infer water sources, flowpaths and residence
times, iii) temperature and electrical conductivity measurements at high frequency and high spatial
resolution in streams, iv) geochemical and cosmogenic radionuclide measurements to provide a longerterm context in which to assess extreme events and their associated material fluxes, v) seasonally
integrated measurements of deposition, and vi) soil-water sampling in different landscapes and along
flowpaths.
Invited Keynote Talk
ADVANCES IN MOUNTAIN CLIMATE RESEARCH
BARRY, ROGER G.
NSIDC/CIRES and Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
The paper gives an overview of recent advances in research into mountain meteorology and climatology.
Regional coverage of mountain climates is steadily increasing, particularly in central-southern Asia and
the Andes. The Mesoscale Alpine Project has provided much new insight into orographic precipitation
and wind systems (gap and foehn winds especially). There is increasing use of sounders and profilers in
local wind and lee wave research, Satellite and airborne remote sensing of snow and glaciers in mountain
terrain has had major achievements (the Cold Land Processes Experiment and the Global Land Ice
Measurements from Space project, for example). Finally, climate change in mountains is receiving
increased attention in the Alps, North America and the Andes. Examples are given of some of this work.
Talk
INFERRING THE ROLE OF CLIMATE IN THE DECLINE OF THE AMERICAN PIKA
BEEVER, ERIK (1); RAY, CHRIS (2); MOTE, PHILIP (3); AND WILKENING, JENNIFER (4)
(1) USGS, (2) University of Colorado-Boulder, (3) University of Washington, (4) University of Colorado Boulder
Populations of the American pika are rapidly disappearing throughout the Great Basin, especially where
pika habitats (taluses) are confined to lower elevations. We present evidence that these losses are
accelerating in a pattern that suggests effects of recent climate change. However, these data are well
suited to testing alternative hypotheses regarding the influence of climate on a species’ distribution. We
propose two hypotheses, one invoking effects of climate change within the past 60 years and the other
invoking cumulative effects of climate over this same period. We employ a novel method for hindcasting
climate over the past 60 years within each of 24 pika habitats, based on correlating data from the
Historical Climate Network with our own recent data on talus microclimates. We consider several climate
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statistics as metrics of potential stress faced by pikas, including summer heat stress (average JuneAugust temperature and number of days above 28 deg C) and winter cold stress (number of days below 5 deg C). For each of the 24 habitats, we model each statistic as a metric of cumulative climate (e.g.,
average over 60 years) or climate change (e.g., difference between two 30-year periods). We use an
information-theoretic approach to compare support for different climate metrics (including multivariate
models) as predictors of pika persistence across these 24 habitats.
Poster
RIBBON FOREST AND SNOW CONDITIONS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA
BEKKER, MATTHEW F. (1), AND FAGRE, DANIEL B. (2)
(1) Department of Geography, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, (2) USGS Biological
Resources Division, West Glacier, MT 59936
Linear patterns of subalpine forests termed ribbon forest have been described in several locations in the
Rocky Mountains. The origin and maintenance of these patterns have been attributed to wind-snowdrift
interactions and underlying microtopography, but the dynamics of ribbon forests have not been well
studied and are poorly understood. We examined the structure and dynamics of ribbons dominated by
subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) and Engelmann spruce (Picea Engelmannii) in Preston Park, a glacial
valley located in central Glacier National Park, Montana. We used dendrochronology and field
measurements of snow depth and solar radiation to explain the timing and magnitude of advancement of
ribbon forests into meadows. The species, diameter, and height of all trees, and seedlings >30 cm in
height were measured in seven 2-m wide transects spanning six meadows, and 60% (n=330) of stems
were cored or sectioned to determine tree ages. Winter and spring snow depth were measured along the
same transects. Seedling establishment was dense, but almost exclusively limited to the east and north
sides of meadows. Although forest-meadow edge patterns seemed to suggest continuous and recent
invasion, tree ages indicated episodic establishment, with very few seedlings younger than 40 yr. Tree
establishment is controlled by snow depth patterns, which are influenced by the pacific decadal oscillation
and endogenous feedback between ribbons and snow deposition on west and south sides of meadows,
enhanced snowmelt due to increased solar radiation on north and east sides of meadows, temperature,
and microtopographic variability.
Poster
HIGH-ELEVATION PRIMARY PRODUCTION DRIVEN BY CONTRASTING EFFECTS OF GROWING
SEASON LENGTH AND SOIL MOISTURE
BERDANIER, AARON B. (1) AND KLEIN, JULIA A. (1,2)
(1) Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, (2)
Department of Forest, Rangeland and Watershed Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins,
CO 80523
While temperature is a dominant factor in high elevation ecosystems, precipitation exerts a strong
influence on their structure and function. In the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, annual precipitation is
dominated by winter snowfall. Snow influences vegetation by affecting both the length of the growing
season and soil moisture availability. In a pilot study in 2007, we collected samples of aboveground
biomass from 7 alpine and subalpine sites in Colorado. Across all sites, aboveground biomass
decreased significantly with increasing winter precipitation. This response was likely due to differences in
growing season length, although the interaction of soil moisture and growing season length is difficult to
separate. We hypothesized that primary production would increase with an increase in growing season
length. However, with low snowpack or rainfall, soil moisture is likely to constrain production below
predicted levels. To explore this issue, we are establishing an experiment to examine the independent
and combined effects of growing season length and soil moisture on net primary production. We will
increase growing season length and summer water inputs factorially in dry and wet sites to test our
hypothesis of contrasting effects. This work can help to enhance our understanding of how snow affects
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vegetative production and inform how earlier snowmelt and soil moisture changes due to climate change
may affect plant production.
Invited Talk
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE ON US FEDERAL LANDS
BLATE, GEOFFREY M.
AAAS Science & Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. EPA, Global Change Research Program, Washington,
DC 20460
The combination of climate change and other environmental changes is expected to alter the future
structure, composition, and functioning of ecosystems as well as the goods and services these
ecosystems provide. Adaptations—adjustments in human social systems (e.g., management)—that
address the anticipated adverse impacts and capitalize on any positive effects of climate change may
help maintain or even enhance future ecosystem services. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP) is completing 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP) to better understand climate change
and its interaction with other environmental changes to affect biodiversity and the future condition of
ecosystems and natural resources. SAP 4.4 reviewed potential adaptation options for climate-sensitive
ecosystems that could be incorporated into ecosystem and natural resource management and planning.
An important innovation in this SAP was to explore adaptation options by first considering the
management context (including desired ecosystem condition and resource management goals) and the
processes organizations use to achieve their goals. Using this approach, adaptation options (and
potential implementation barriers and opportunities) were explored for six federally managed lands and
waters: National Forests, National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, Wild and Scenic Rivers, National
Estuaries, and Marine Protected Areas. A key conclusion was that many of the best management
practices resource managers already use to address ‘traditional’ stressors of concern (e.g., pollution,
invasive species, and fragmentation) will also reduce any exacerbation of these stressors by climate
change. Strategic adjustment of these best management practices could enhance ecosystem resilience
to climate change. I will present seven general adaptation approaches identified in the report to stimulate
discussion on how federal land managers might use this information to further develop adaptation efforts.
Invited Talk
CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CARBON AND WATER CYCLES IN HIGH
ELEVATION ANDEAN ECOSYSTEMS: MONITORING AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS
BROWN, SANDRA
Soil-Water Environmental Group, University of British Columbia, Vancouver Canada
The government of Colombia is facilitating research in high mountain Andean ecosystems to provide a
scientific base for understanding climate change and land use impacts on water and carbon cycles. One
component of the program has been the development of a protocol for the characterization of carbon and
water cycles, which focuses on the biophysical processes, incorporates anthropogenic impacts, and
focuses on water for downstream use and users. This approach is unique in that climate and land use are
considered jointly, and carbon and water are linked within the decision making framework at the national
and local levels. The protocol was developed with scientific input from Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia,
Canada and USA, and aims to establish a monitoring system to understand the impacts of both climate
change and land use on the capacity of these high mountain ecosystems to regulate water flow and to
accumulate carbon. The concept of pools and flow paths is utilized to investigate the impacts of climate
and land use on the various compartments and ultimately on carbon and water balances. Anthropogenic
influences such as ploughing, burning, forest harvesting and grazing are explicitly included. The protocol
is organized in a series of blocks representing activities, analysis and decisions taken; and supporting
documentation on norms, criteria and procedures. The blocks include: introduction, sub-watershed
selection, research questions, secondary data, monitoring network design, monitoring program, and data
systemization and analysis. The program is currently being implemented, and aims to support
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management strategies for adaptation to climate change by providing a scientific information base on the
processes affecting the carbon and water cycles; their interactions, dynamics, and variability; the
practices that optimize storage; and the potential implications for local communities.
Poster
ECTOMYCORRHIZAL FUNGI AT ALPINE TREELINE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS: BASELINE
DATA AND A REVIEW IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CRIPPS, CATHY L (1), HORAK, EGON (2) AND K. MOHATT (1)
(1) Plant Sciences and Plant Pathology Department, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, (2) Institute for
Microbiology, University of Innsbruck, A 6020, Innsbruck, Austria.
Fungi are critical to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems yet their ecological significance is often
overlooked in the context of climate change. The 1.5 million species in the Kingdom Fungi exist as
saprotrophs, parasites and mutualists which includes several types of mycorrhizal fungi. Ectomycorrhizal
fungi associate with woody plants, enhancing nutrient uptake and providing protection from drought,
grazers, pathogens and other stressors. In addition, we now know their ecosystem services include
nutrient recycling, mobilization of N and P from organic polymers, release of nutrients from mineral rock,
carbon sequestration, aggregation of soil, and promotion of moisture-holding capacity in soil. These in
turn affect larger ecosystem processes such as erosion and water-shed dynamics.
Ectomycorrhizal fungi at tree line are primarily Basidiomycetes and Ascomycetes that only occasionally
produce fruiting bodies to indicate their presence. In addition, fungi are less well known than other
organisms with an estimated 5% of species named. However, significant research on ectomycorrhizal
communities has progressed largely due largely through the use of molecular methods for identification of
fungi on roots. Therefore we know that the composition of ectomycorrhizal communities changes across
the ecological border of alpine tree line due to host specificity on many levels. In the Rockies arctic-alpine
fungi occur above treeline with Salix, Dryas and Betula; some of these are used as model systems to
detect change in arctic-alpine habitats. Below tree line a different set of fungi associate with conifers such
as spruce and fir, and whitebark pine. Here we 1) present baseline data on the biodiversity and ecology of
ectomycorrhizal fungi above and below treeline in the Rocky Mountains and 2) review studies on fungi in
cold dominated regions with an environmental change component to provide context with putative
predictive value. The physiological functioning of each mycorrhizal fungal species is unique. Therefore, as
treeline is altered by temperature or the decline of particular tree species such as whitebark pine, the
basic microbial functioning is expected to change as well.
Poster
PUTTING CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY INTO PRACTICE FOR WILDLIFE AND WILDLAND
CONSERVATION
CROSS, MOLLY S. (1), TABOR, GARY M. (2), AND THE NCEAS CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDLIFE
CONSERVATION WORKING GROUP (3).
(1) Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT 59715, (2) Center for Large Landscape Conservation,
Bozeman, MT 59715, (3) National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, CA.
A major challenge facing biodiversity conservation is how to develop strategies that enable species and
ecosystems to cope with the inevitable impacts of climate change. While a growing body of research has
identified a number of adaptation options for addressing climate change, these recommendations are
often too general to translate into actual management and conservation actions on the ground. The ability
to implement these general recommendations is also hampered by insufficient communication between
climate change scientists and conservation practitioners. Our project addresses these issues by bringing
together scientists and conservation practitioners to test several general recommendations and apply
them to site-based conservation decision-making at a particular location – the Greater Yellowstone
Ecosystem (GYE). We developed a framework that uses multi-stakeholder workshops to: 1) identify GYE
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species and ecological processes most threatened by climate change; 2) assess the impacts of climate
change on a subset of those species and processes; and 3) translate the generic adaptation
recommendations into a portfolio of specific adaptation scenarios. We found that this “bottom-up”
approach is necessary for integrating climate change models into on the ground conservation decision
making, and is an improvement over “top-down” approaches that generate generic recommendations that
are difficult to implement.
Invited Talk
HIDDEN CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN COMPLEX TERRAIN
DALY, CHRISTOPHER
Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR
It is generally recognized that long-term mean climate varies spatially over complex terrain, responding to
factors such as elevation, aspect, and coastal proximity. It is also generally assumed that climatic
variations in time respond less strongly to these factors, and are fairly consistent on a regional basis. For
example, when one location has a warmer than normal winter, other nearby locations are expected to
have had a similarly warm winter. The assumption of temporal synchrony of climate is made in every field
study for which data from an off-site meteorological station are used to represent conditions at the
location of interest. Most methods for downscaling climate change projections from coarse-grid general
circulation models do so, as well.
This paper refutes the assumption of regional climatic synchrony in complex terrain, using temperature
data collected from several stations at various elevations and topographic positions in the HJ Andrews
Experimental Forest, Oregon. Even at the monthly time step, temperature trends and variations at sites
just a few km or less apart can be completely different. A main culprit is the presence of cold air drainage
and pooling in valley bottoms and other local depressions. In areas free from cold air drainage, such as
hill slopes and ridge tops, temperatures respond strongly to changes in flow pattern in the upper
atmosphere, but low-lying areas dominated by cold air drainage do not. The result is a complex
temperature landscape composed of steep gradients in temporal variation, controlled largely by gradients
in elevation and topographic position.
If future climate changes are accompanied by changes in the frequency distribution of upper-air
circulation patterns, actual temperature responses could diverge widely between very closely-spaced
locations. Sensitivity tests suggest that the magnitude of this divergence might equal or exceed that of
the projected temperature change itself. There is ample evidence that cold air drainage and atmospheric
decoupling occur worldwide, even in the subtropics and in very gentle terrain. Therefore,
topographically-induced climate asynchrony is likely to be of global importance in understanding the
implications of climate change.
What should be done to address this issue? Research and measurement programs designed specifically
to understand the complexities of climatic asynchrony in mountainous terrain should be established.
Measurement networks that encompass a wide spectrum of elevations and topographic positions within
small areas are needed. These networks should be established in a variety of climatic and physiographic
settings to allow results to be generalized (or at least to offer the prospect of doing so). Since is it the
exceptions to the rule of climate synchrony that are of interest, these networks must be maintained for a
least ten years, with no infilling of missing data using spatial estimation methods. High-resolution, highquality spatial data sets of elevation, hydrography, land use, canopy cover, and related variables will be
required to support the development of statistical and dynamic downscaling methods at the landscape
scale. Our simple first efforts to statistically model the effects were reasonably successful, at least in our
study area. The challenge will be developing general statistical models that are applicable to many
mountainous regions. Given that the most explanatory power in our model was offered by topographic
position at the 50-m scale (and possibly finer), the challenge to dynamic downscaling will be to simulate
cold air drainage and related processes at ultra-fine grid resolutions.
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Talk
FIRE HISTORY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES: EVIDENCE OF MIXED-SEVERITY FIRES IN
MONTANE FORESTS
DANIELS, LORI D. (1), COCHRANE, JED (1,2), GRAY, ROBERT W. (3,4), AND KUBIAN , RICK (2,4).
(1) Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada; (2) Parks Canada
Agency, Calgary, AB and Radium Hot Springs, BC Canada; (3) RW Gray Consulting Ltd, Chilliwack BC
V2R 2N2; (4) School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, BC Canada
We have reconstructed fire history at 30 sites and quantified the climate conditions associated with
historic fires in the montane forests of the Rocky Mountains in southeastern British Columbia. Our goal is
to provide baseline data on fire regimes that can be used to guide ecologically-based restoration of the
historic fire regime and fuels mitigation. Of the 30 study sites, 10 sites were subjectively selected to
represent old-growth forests and 20 sites were randomly selected to represent southerly, warm-aspect
slopes (n = 10) and northerly, cool-aspect slopes (n = 10) in the landscape. Fire records were based on
249 fire scar samples that yielded 567 fire scars between 1509 and 2003. At the old-growth sites, the
median fire intervals ranged from 10.3 to 25.6 years, with two to 123 years separating successive fires
within sites. At the remaining sites, median fire return intervals ranged from 15.5 to 77.5 years, with 5 to
138 years between fires within sites. Our fire scar records included only 6 fires since 1944. Time since
last fire has exceeded the maximum interval between historic fires at 16 of 28 (57%) sites. Between 1700
and 1900, fires burned during significant droughts associated with variation in the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Fires burned during all combinations of climate conditions, but were more likely to burn when the PDO
was positive and the AMO was negative, regardless of variation in ENSO. We conclude the low incidence
of fire scars in the past 60 years is partly due to climate and largely due to fire suppression.
Talk
DROUGHT-INDUCED VEGETATION CHANGE IN SKY ISLAND MOUNTAINS: REMOTELY SENSED
PHENOLOGY ALONG GRADIENTS OF WOODY PLANT COVER
DAVISON, JENNIFER E. (1,2), BRESHEARS, DAVID D. (1,3,4), AND VAN LEEUWEN, WILLEM J. D.
(2,5)
(1) School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85716, (2) Office of Arid Lands
Studies, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85719, (3) Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85716, (4) Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ 85716, (5) Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ 85716
Global warming is projected to result in an increase in severe weather events, including drought. Recent
drought coupled with warmer temperatures has been implicated in vegetation mortality in many mountain
ecosystems. Drought-triggered tree die-off could be an important barometer of climate impacts,
especially in Sky Island mountains where climate-vegetation gradients are steep and water limitations are
particularly important. However, differentiating such vegetation changes remotely from background
spatiotemporal variation remains challenging. Here we hypothesize and explore an approach for
detecting die-off that considers remotely sensed spatial and temporal variation in landscape phenology
along Sky Islands in concert with associated trends in amount of woody plant canopy cover. Our
approach evaluates vegetation dynamics (e.g., start of season, seasonal productivity) with respect to
topography, soils, and vegetation type, as well as percent woody cover, precipitation and temperature
trends. Multivariate analysis showed a relationship between woody plant cover and various satellitedetected metrics of vegetation dynamics. Interannual changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of
vegetation, after accounting for woody cover, related to precipitation and temperature patterns. Our
results may aide in improved methods for rapidly and extensively assessing drought impacts along Sky
Islands and in other mountain ecosystems.
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Poster
DOWNSCALING IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAINS: A WISHLIST
DETTINGER, MICHAEL
U.S. Geological Survey, Scripps Institution Of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093
In recent decades, warming trends across western North America have fed a number of hydroclimatic
changes, including trends towards more precipitation as rain rather than snow, less springtime snowpack,
earlier snowfed streamflow, and earlier vegetation greenup. Current climate-change projections indicate
that warming will continue and perhaps accelerate during the 21st Century if emissions of greenhouse
gases are not mitigated. An important step in determining the effects and risks of such changes is
“downscaling” (or informed interpolation) of simulated conditions from global climate models, which
currently have coarse spatial resolutions of hundreds of kilometers, down to spatial scales more
appropriate for hydrologic applications (about 10 km or less).
Some examples of experiences with downscaling requirements and applications for climate-change
assessments in California will provide the beginnings of a wishlist of desirable properties of downscaled
products for western mountains. Several of these needs have been met with new, constructed-analog
downscaling methods, but other desirable properties remain unresolved. Those unresolved needs will
“complete” the list.
Contributed Lunch Talk
A FLAT-LANDER'S PERSPECTIVE ON LEARNING ABOUT COLORADO'S MOUNTAIN CLIMATES
DOESKEN, NOLAN
Colorado State University, Boulder, CO
I left the humid, stormy but friendly flatlands of Central Illinois in 1977 and headed west along the 40th
parallel to Colorado to assume the duties of Assistant State Climatologist at Colorado State University.
This presentation summarizes some of the personal discoveries and experiences from the past three
decades falling in love with the climate of a mountainous state.
Poster
ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR BIODIVERSITY IN NEW MEXICO: CONSERVATION
IMPLICATIONS AT REGIONAL AND LOCAL SCALES
ENQUIST, CAROLYN A.F. (1), GIRVETZ, EVAN (2), AND GORI, DAVID (1)
(1) The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, Santa Fe, NM (2) The University of Washington, Seattle,
WA.
There is a paucity of regionally-scaled information linking the physical impacts of climate change with
effects on biodiversity and practical guidance for adaptive conservation planning and management.
Progress has been made with the development of newly available analysis tools. We used these tools to
analyze the impacts of climate change on watershed scale hydrological units (HUC250) in New Mexico. A
majority of HUCs have experienced increases in temperature with varying magnitude over the past
century, with the remainder experiencing slightly cooler or no changes. Precipitation changes were more
spatially heterogeneous, but variance in precipitation change showed a positive relationship with
elevation. Analysis of species richness showed that watersheds with higher richness were among those
becoming warmest and driest. We found that warmer-drier trends are occurring concurrently with recent
forest dieback, alteration of fire regimes, declining snow pack, and population declines in sensitive
species in the Jemez Mountains, a priority conservation area located in north-central New Mexico. With
future projections suggesting these climate trends will continue, we conclude that these mountains and
watershed are particularly vulnerable to ongoing climate change. To assist land managers, we have
initiated a case study of the region focused on the identification of optimal adaptation strategies.
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Together, these analyses provide a framework for conducting an assessment of climate change
vulnerability at scales appropriate for regional to local conservation planning and management.
Poster
MYCORRHIZAL SYMBIOSES ABOVE TREELINE IN THE PATAGONIAN ANDES OF ARGENTINA AT
CERRO CHALLHUACO, A POTENTIAL GLORIA SITE: PART II
FERNANDEZ, NATALIA (1,3); FONTENLA, SONIA (1,3); APPLE, MARTHA (4) AND EZCURRA,
CECILIA (1,2)
(1) Laboratorio de Microbiología Aplicada y Biotecnología, Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche,
Universidad del Comahue. Quintral 1250, S.C. de Bariloche (CP 8400), Río Negro, Argentina. (2)
Departamento de Botánica, Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche, Universidad del Comahue. Quintral
1250, S.C. de Bariloche (CP 8400), Río Negro, Argentina. (3) CONICET – INIBIOMA. (4) Department of
Biological Sciences, Montana Tech of the University of Montana, Butte, MT 59701.
Mycorrhizas are symbiotic associations that improve plant fitness and influence plant biodiversity in
natural ecosystems. Recent studies have suggested that climate change may play a major role in
determining the structure of plant communities and mycorrhizal diversity. Describing the ecology and
distribution of mycorrhizas in different habitats would give us new insights into the impacts of global
change on ecosystems structure. The objective of this study was to analyze the occurrence of arbuscular
mycorrhizae (AM) in Andean plants of a potential GLORIA site. In March, 2006 roots from plants above
treeline were collected in Cerro Catedral (an alpine ski resort) and Cerro Challhuaco (a relatively
undisturbed mountain), within Nahuel Huapi National Park, San Carlos de Bariloche, Patagonia,
Argentina. All samples were stained by using a modified Phillips and Hayman (1970) method. Typical AM
structures (arbuscules, coils, vesicles) were documented as brightfield images. The percentage of root
length colonized by AM was estimated according to McGonigle et al. (1990). A total of 42 species were
determined. Mycorrhizas were observed in 76.2% of these species (23.8% were non-mycorrhizal). The
93.8% of the species capable of forming mycorrhizas were colonized by AM and 6.2% by ericoid
mycorrhizas. The percentage of root length colonized by AM fungi varied widely among the species (~9%
to 98%). Despite there being many things remaining to be done (such as comparing the mycorrhizal
species between the mountains and analyzing how the disturbance may affect mycorrhizal communities),
these results are relevant since they represent the first record of mycorrhizas in high Andean flora and
constitute the initial step in the study of the importance of these fungi in the analysis of climate change.
What we have investigated up to the moment is extremely valuable because it is necessary to know
which species are present at these places and their mycorrhizal status in order to integrate this
knowledge into future studies about climate change.
Poster
GLACIER CHANGES IN THE AMERICAN WEST
FOUNTAIN, ANDREW G., HOFFMAN, M., AND BASAGIC, H.
Department of Geology, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97201
Based on historic photographs and maps collected over the past 100 years we have developed a history
of glacier change for all the major glacier-covered regions in the American West, exclusive of Alaska.
Results show a similar trend for all regions, rapid glacier shrinkage in the early half of the 1900s, a
slowing or slight advance for about a decade, then a resumption of retreat in the 1980s. The glaciers
appear to be responding to seasonal temperature changes rather than fluctuations in precipitation.
However, glaciers in different regions are responding to different seasonal temperatures. Glaciers at
elevations greater than 3000m (Sierra Nevada, Front Range) are responding to warming spring
temperatures, which extend the length of the melting season. Glaciers below 3000m (Olympics,
Cascades, Lewis), particularly in the Northwest, respond to warming winter temperatures, which reduce
the fraction of precipitation that falls as snow. Some glaciers on the stratovolcanoes of the Northwest
have not changed greatly over the past 30 years, and may be due to their large elevation range. We infer
10
enhanced snow fall at high elevations in the Northwest that offset snow losses at lower elevations.
Recent abrupt increases in summer temperatures portend rapid glacier retreat for the near future.
Poster
ROOTS IN THE ROCKS: AN APPLICATION OF HERBCHRONOLOGY ABOVE TREELINE AT
BARNEY ROCK GLACIER, SIERRA NEVADA, CALIFORNIA, USA
FRANKLIN, REBECCA S.
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson AZ 85721
Herbchronology, a technique adapted from dendrochronology, is the study of the annual growth rings in
roots of certain perennial dicotyledonous plants. The presence of annual growth increments in plants in
alpine and above-treeline environments is significant as it highlights the importance of herbchronology for
climatic, ecological and geomorphologic applications in alpine and above-treeline ecology. I am
presenting the results from a herbchronology analysis of the plants colonizing Barney Rock Glacier. This
site, at 3200 meters elevation on the northeast side of the valley wall, is located below Duck Lake Pass in
the eastern Sierra Nevada mountain range. Upon analysis of the secondary root xylem of the shrub
Leptodactylon pungens (Polemoniaceae), a member of a circumboreal genus, I discovered the presence
of annual growth rings that appear to be reflecting a common signal. I am presenting preliminary herbchronologies for this species based on site aspect around the Barney Lake Rock Glacier. These herbchronologies are also compared with a Pinus albicaulis chronology from the same site and with PRISM
climate data from this region. Comparison can potentially determine whether or not annual growth in the
root rings of these plants is controlled by regional climate, microclimate, aspect, snow pack or perhaps
other factors.
Talk
COMBINED WATER BALANCE AND TREE-RING APPROACHES TO UNDERSTANDING THE
POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER
GRAY, STEPHEN (1) AND MCCABE, GREGORY (2)
(1) Wyoming State Climate Office, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071, (2) US Geological Survey,
Denver Federal Center, Denver CO 80225
Simulations from climate models suggest that average temperatures in the central Rocky Mountains will
increase by 1 to 2 °C over the next 50 years, while precipitation will most likely remain within lateHolocene boundaries. In this study, the potential hydrologic effects of such warming, combined with the
full range of precipitation variability experienced over the past millennium, is investigated in the Upper
Yellowstone River basin in Wyoming and Montana. A water balance model that estimates basin runoff
from precipitation and temperature inputs was constructed for current conditions (r = 0.92 vs. measured).
The model was then run using tree-ring precipitation estimates for 1177-1895 AD combined with: (1)
average observed temperatures 1896-1995; (2) reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures since
1177; and (3) IPCC temperature projections for 2025 and 2050. The resulting runoff scenarios are
compared to a baseline generated from tree-ring precipitation and average observed temperatures for
1896-1995.
All combinations of temperature and pre-1896 precipitation resulted in mean Upper Yellowstone runoff
th
below the 20 century baseline. Projected temperatures for 2025 and 2050 produced the lowest mean
runoff at 89 and 85% of baseline, respectively. Combining average observed temperatures with the
paleo-precipitation created numerous multidecadal periods with mean runoff < 85% of baseline. Runoff
during these same multidecadal droughts declined an additional 5-15% under the 2025/2050 temperature
regimes. As in previous studies from the Southwestern US, these results show that 1-2 °C warming could
have major negative effects on water availability in the Upper Yellowstone. Though not considered here,
changing snow hydrology and runoff patterns might further exacerbate these declines. These exercises
also suggest that 20th century runoff observations paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water
11
supplies. Assessing water availability in the face of both anthropogenic climate change and a more
realistic portrayal of precipitation variability is a key challenge for resource managers and policy makers
alike.
Poster
RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY PRECIPITATION AND STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTED FROM BLUE
OAK TREE RINGS
GRIFFIN, R. DANIEL (1), WOODHOUSE, CONNIE A. (1), AND DAVID W. STAHLE (2)
(1) Dept. of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721,
(2) Dept. of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701
2
The Russian River drains a 3,846 km coastal basin north of San Francisco. Users of the heavily
regulated surface water in the Russian River Valley include a successful wine production industry, some
600,000 people in Mendocino, Sonoma, and Marin Counties, and a number of federally endangered fish
species such as the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). In recent years, drought-associated
water shortages and a state-mandated reduction of water imported from the neighboring Eel River Basin
have been problematic for the Sonoma County Water Agency, who is required to maintain minimum flow
rates for the dry season salmon run. As stakeholders and managers continue to plan for sustainability
into the mid-21st Century, an investigation of the pre-instrumental hydroclimatic history could be useful. A
number of 300-400 year long blue oak (Quercus douglasii, Hook. & Arn.) tree-ring chronologies were
recently developed in California’s North Coast Ranges, proximate to the Russian River Valley. These
moisture sensitive chronologies are precisely dated, well replicated through time, and are highly
correlated with numerous instrumental records of precipitation and streamflow in the Russian River
Valley. As a preliminary assessment, an average of the two longest blue oak chronologies from the north
coast region was calibrated with water year precipitation averaged from two of the basin’s long
precipitation records (Ukiah and Santa Rosa, 1906-2004, R2 = 0.73), and also with the water year
estimates of full natural flow on the Russian River at Healdsburg (1941-2004, R2 = 0.77). Bivariate
regression was used to reconstruct both precipitation and streamflow variables for the water years 15822004. These 423-year reconstructions exhibit dramatic inter-annual to sub-decadal variability and
demonstrate the potential for using blue oak tree-ring data to study the pre-instrumental climate history of
the Russian River Basin. The challenge will be to determine how best to assist resource managers in
incorporating the information from the hydroclimatic reconstruction into resource planning and
management.
Poster
TITLE?
GUISAN, A., RANDIN, C., ENGLER, R., VITTOZ, P.
20th century climate change already affected mountain biotas. A pressing question is to assess how
future climate change will further affect life on Earth by the end of the XXIth century. The first part of the
talk briefly reviews some floristic fingerprints of climate change in the Swiss Alps. The second part
presents the results of climate-envelope model projections of possible impacts of climate change on the
distribution and diversity of 287 alpine plant species at local scale. It is then shown for the same 287
species, and using the newly developed MigClim model (a cellular automaton coupled with climateenvelope models), how constraining predictions by the dispersal abilities of species can yield more
realistic projections and additionally assess the timing of species extinctions by the end of the century.
Poster
THE EFFECT OF TOPOGRAPHY AND WEATHER ON THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF SIMULATED
FINE-FUEL MOISTURE
GWOZDZ, RICHARD (1), DONALD MCKENZIE(1,2)
12
(1) College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, (2) USDA Forest Service,
Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, Seattle, WA 98103
Fuel moisture is a contributing factor to fire risk and fire behavior. Changes in the amount of moisture
held by a fuel particle are driven by water and energy flux. These fluxes vary across landscapes due to
topography and forest cover effects that modify weather and create micro-climates. Microclimates may
therefore create distinct spatial patterns of fine fuel moisture. We developed a model of fuel moisture to
examine the spatial structure produced in a watershed with complex topography (Icicle Creek,
Washington State, USA). Our model is largely based on the National Fire Danger Rating System
(Fosberg and Deeming 1971) but includes a surface energy balance equation that allows solar radiation
to modify boundary conditions. We examined the sensitivity of spatial structure to different weather
patterns and different values of model parameters. Results from our model indicate that sunny humid
days lead to more spatial variation and structure in fuel moisture compared to sunny dry days, on which
fuels are drier across the entire landscape. These simulations suggest that the degree of spatial variation
across the landscape depends on weather conditions. An increase in the number of warm, dry, sunny
days will decrease landscape heterogeneity with regard to fuel moisture, potentially increasing landscape
connectivity with regard to fire behavior. However, model results were very sensitive to values of the
convective heat transfer coefficient, with lower values producing more distinct spatial structure. Despite
this sensitivity, our mechanistic approach to modeling spatial heterogeneity in fire-spread potential
dovetails with simulations from Turner and Romme (1994) and others that suggest that extreme weather
conditions increase the connectivity of landscapes with respect to fire behavior.
Fosberg, M. A., and J. E. Deeming. 1971. Derivation of the 1- and 10-Hour Timelag Fuel Moisture
Calculations for Fire-Danger Rating. U.s. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range
Experiment Station, Fort Collins, CO.
Turner, M. G., and W. H. Romme. 1994. Landscape Dynamics in Crown Fire Ecosystems. Landscape
Ecology 9:59-77.
Poster
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS OF THE
WESTERN U.S.
HALOFSKY, JESSICA E., AND PETERSON, DAVID L.
Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, 400 N 34th Street, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103
Climate either directly or indirectly influences a myriad of ecosystem processes, such as species
distribution, the hydrologic cycle, and disturbance regimes. Likely realities of increased temperatures in
the western U.S. include increased fire frequency and extent, increased insect outbreaks, increased
drought, and increased vulnerability of plant and animal species to population decline and extirpation.
Development of effective strategies for adaptation is imperative in order to minimize the negative impacts
of climate change on western ecosystems. Adaptation strategies for Western land managers, developed
from workshops with national forest managers and other sources, are summarized along with the
scientific basis for their development.
Invited Talk
ST
21 CENTURY WATER MANAGEMENT: THE MYTH OF CLIMATE STATIONARITY AND
STRATEGIES FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING CLIMATE
HAMLET, ALAN F.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
The foundation of U.S. water management systems, long-range planning methods, and procedures for
designing water resources infrastructure are broadly predicated on the notion of climate stationarity, and
the use of observed climate and/or hydrologic records to guide these activities has been, until very
recently, almost universal. Many water resources agreements and operating policies in the western U.S.,
13
for example, date from the inception of projects designed and built in the mid 20th century, and were
based on relatively short streamflow records available at the time. In some cases these practices worked
out reasonably well, in others not so well (depending on how representative the relatively short records
were of actual future conditions), but the design process was generally based implicitly on an assumption
of stationarity. Even recent and more innovative water resources management concepts such as
“Adaptive Management” are implicitly based on ideas of climate stationarity.
A growing demand for water and clear evidence of a rapidly evolving (and imperfectly understood) climate
system, as well as more complete representations of climate variability from paleoreconstructions has
called into question the methods that have been used in the past to manage water resources, and
suggest that substantially different approaches will be required to cope with these stresses. In some
instances (e.g. in the case of urban storm water management) infrastructure can potentially be made
sufficiently robust that precise design standards (which are likely to remain highly uncertain) may be less
important. In other cases design standards may still be needed, and deciding an appropriate margin of
safety will be challenging and inherently uncertain. Where it is possible to do so, monitoring systems,
combined with flexible infrastructure that can be modified as new information becomes available may be
more effective than designing “permanent” infrastructure based on uncertain design standards.
Many case studies have already shown that multi-objective water management systems in the West are
likely to be thrown out of balance by changing hydrologic variability associated with climate change.
th
Fixed rule curves for flood control, for example, which are commonly based on mid-20 century
streamflow records and 1970’s era streamflow forecasting technologies, need updating now, and will
require additional updates as the climate continues to change in the coming century. The high costs of
repeated intervention as the climate system evolves suggests that more dynamic approaches that pair
advanced streamflow forecasting systems (that include important climate drivers such as systematic
warming) with optimization models to create “dynamic” rule curves may be a superior method for coping
with evolving climate risks over the long haul. Similar approaches can also be applied to the
management of water demand. Some examples include dynamic pricing or flexible water
transfer/marketing schemes that are informed by forecasts.
In many (if not all) cases future water resources decisions will need to be based on modeling studies
rather than past observations. This change presents many challenges, and particularly so in the
management of ecosystems, which are often not sufficiently well understood to create appropriate models
for decision making. If models are not available, what approaches can be devised to cope with nonstationary climate risks?
Poster
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON VEGETATION WATER AND CARBON CYCLYING AND SPECIES
COMPOSITION IN YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
HEYN, KAVITA, A. (1), TAGUE, CHRISTINA L. (1), CHRISTENSEN, LINDSEY (2)
(1) Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa
Barbara, CA 93106 (2) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
80523-1499
As part of the Western Mountain Initiative, this research explored potential climate change effects on
vegetation productivity and drought stress in the Upper Merced River Basin, Yosemite National Park,
1
Sierra Nevada, California. The RHESSys model was employed to analyze vegetation response to
simulated climate scenarios. We used historical climate data for water years 1950 to 2000 as a baseline,
and examined impacts of incremental 2ºC temperature increases to a maximum of 8ºC, and an elevated
CO2 of 600 ppm. The responses of vegetation across the basin and two smaller ‘patches’ were examined
using leaf area index, net primary productivity, and evapotranspiration (ET). The results indicated that
vegetation at the higher elevations increases productivity and growth with warming temperatures, up until
a temperature ‘tipping point’ of 6ºC. After this point, vegetation becomes drought-stressed as the cost of
respiration becomes higher than the gross photosynthetic capacity of the plant. Lower elevations are
14
more water-limited and therefore immediately demonstrated a decrease in growth and productivity with
warming temperatures of 2ºC. The response of basin vegetation to temperature was complicated by the
interaction of CO2, which creates a new equilibrium of productivity for vegetation as it becomes more
water-efficient. However, temperature ‘tipping points’ were present even with higher CO2. This research
suggests potential decreases in vegetation productivity in the basin as plants become more droughtstressed. Furthermore, results suggest the species composition of this conifer-dominated basin may
change in response to increasing drought-stress. This was shown by comparing model results with
Stephenson’s2 model of the relationship between actual ET and deficit as an indicator of species type for
North American vegetation.
Corresponding authors: Kavita Heyn kheyn@bren.ucsb.edu; Christina Tague ctague@bren.ucsb.edu
Western Mountain Initiative (WMI) http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/wmi/
1. Tague, CL, and Band, LE. 2004. Regional hydro-ecologic simulation system: An object-oriented
approach to spatially distributed modeling of carbon, water and nutrient cycling. Earth
Interactions 8: 1-42.
2. Stephenson, NL. 1990. Climatic control of vegetation distribution: The role of the water balance.
The American Naturalist 135: 649-667.
Poster
CLIMATE INFLUENCES ON PLANT GROWTH: SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS IN MOUNTAIN
ECOSYSTEMS OF THE WEST
HICKE, JEFFREY A. (1) AND MEDDENS, ARJAN J. H. (1)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844
Climate variability and change affects plant growth through modifications to soil moisture, evaporative
demand, and growing season length. Expected future warming will affect plant growth differently in
different regions depending on the current climate conditions: regions where growth is limited by low soil
moisture and high evaporative demand will likely experience reductions in growth, whereas regions where
growth is limited by low temperatures will likely experience increases in growth. In this study we used
satellite observations, a carbon cycle model, and climate information to quantify spatial patterns of net
primary productivity (NPP). We analyzed NPP in five ecoregions of the western United States across 21
years to determine climate controls by elevation. We considered temperature and precipitation variability
at annual and monthly time scales within these ecoregions as drivers of interannual variability in NPP.
We then incorporated future projections of the region’s climate to predict the response of NPP within each
ecoregion.
Poster
TREE DEMOGRAPHY ON MT RAINIER: FORECASTING RANGE SHIFTS UNDER GLOBAL
WARMING
HILLE RIS LAMBERS, JANNEKE (1), KANE AILENE (1), LARSON ANDREW (2) AND LUNDQUIST,
JESSICA (3)
(1) Biology department, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98115-1800; (2) College of Forest
Resources, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195-2100 (3) Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Washington, WA 98195-2700
Humans are changing the weather – temperatures are rising and snowfall amounts are decreasing at
higher latitudes and on mountains. One of the greatest challenges ecologists face is forecasting how
such climate change will affect species ranges. Current approaches to this problem relate species
geographic distributions to climate, and apply these relationships to climate scenarios from Global
Circulation Models (GCM’s) to predict how ranges will shift with global warming. Termed climate
envelope models or niche models, these methods confirm that species’ ranges will shift northward or
15
uphill with global warming, but provide little guidance on the short term demographic responses of forests
to climate change. To address this issue, we use data collected from Mt. Rainier to ask i) whether the
growth of seedlings or adult trees is more sensitive to climate and ii) how tree performance varies with
elevation. We found that seedling growth is more sensitive to fluctuations in climate than adult tree
growth, implying that range expansions will be faster than range contractions. We also found that tree
growth and mortality of several tree species does not decrease at upper or lower altitudinal ranges,
potentially due to biotic interactions that influence range limits. In all, these results suggest the possibility
of transient dynamics during range shifts, that is, migration rates that differ among species and vary over
time. We also discuss future work, in which we will combine tree demographic monitoring, fine-scale
climate measurements and dispersal kernel estimation to better forecast the short-term effects of
increasing temperature and changing hydrological regimes on the ranges of dominant conifers at Mt.
Rainier NP.
Invited Talk
THE CHALLENGE TO DOWNSCALE PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATES
HOREL, JOHN
University of Utah, Department of Meteorology, Salt Lake City, UT 84112
Models or observations cannot independently define present-day mountain climates and climate
processes effectively. However, state-of-the-art data assimilation methods also struggle to define
mountain climates adequately. Characteristics in mountainous regions of the Real Time Mesoscale
Analysis developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are used to illustrate the mix of
modeling and observational issues that need to be addressed. Plans of the NWS Office of Science and
Technology to develop the best possible real-time and retrospective analyses at resolution high enough
to resolve mountain climates will be discussed. Lower confidence is generally given to the specifics of the
global circulation model precipitation estimates in mountainous areas. The potential impact of future
temperature changes in the intermountain West upon winter precipitation is examined using a statistical,
physically based, downscaling approach. The strengths and weaknesses of statistical downscaling
methods relative to data assimilation techniques are discussed.
Poster
A PROCESS-BASED MODELING APPROACH TO THE INTERPRETATION OF HIGH-ELEVATION
TREE-RING RECORDS IN THE WESTERN US.
HUGHES, MALCOLM K. (1), SALZER, MATTHEW, W. (1), AMMANN, CASPAR (2), FRANKLIN,
REBECCA (1), FENBIAO NI (1).
(1) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (2) National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.
The world’s greatest concentration of millennial and multi-millennial, well-replicated tree-ring records is
found in the high mountains of the western US. It is therefore of interest to attempt to disentangle the
effects of temperature and moisture availability on them. In very broad terms, larger tree rings of a
species like bristlecone pine are produced by wetter and cooler conditions near the lower elevation limit of
the species, and by warmer and wetter conditions when growing near the upper limit. These features are
apparent in comparisons with 4-km resolution monthly PRISM data for the period 1895 to 2006. We have
also reproduced the properties of tree-ring records from the upper and lower limits of bristlecone pine
using a process-based model of tree-ring growth driven by daily meteorological data from two high
mountain stations, available from 1956 to 1979 (1977 at the lower elevation). Here we report the results
of efforts to extend these simulations for a longer period, and apply them to a newly developed elevation
transect of bristlecone pine chronologies. For this we use output for the years 1900-1999 from a
realistically forced 20th-Century simulation of the coupled NCAR-CCSM-3 climate model. It is clear that
temperature has played a major role in controlling tree-ring width at the highest elevations, at least during
16
the 20th century. The implications of these results will be discussed in the context of recent tree-ring
growth rates in bristlecone pine at the highest elevations that have been faster than in several millennia.
Talk
CHANGES IN DATES OF EMERGENCE FROM HIBERNATION BY CHIPMUNKS, GROUND
SQUIRRELS, AND MARMOTS AT HIGH ALTITUDE IN THE COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS: AN
EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE?
INOUYE, DAVID W.(1,2), BARR, BILLY (1)
(1) Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, PO Box 519, Crested Butte, CO 81224, (2) University of
Maryland, Dept. of Biology, College Park, MD 20742
Chipmunks (Tamius minimus), golden-mantled ground squirrels (Spermophilus lateralis), and yellowbellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) are common near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory
(2,886 m). All three hibernate for 6 – 8 months, during which there is usually significant snow cover.
Since 1974 - 1976 Barr has recorded dates of first sighting of these species during daily spring
observations. These dates have changed significantly during the study, but not similarly for all species.
Marmot emerge about 28 days earlier now than they did in 1976 (typically before snow has melted from
their burrows), and dates are now earlier for chipmunks (~10 days) and ground squirrel (~ 9 days) than in
1974. Marmot dates have changed progressively at about the same rate over years, while dates for the
other two species trended toward later (3 weeks for ground squirrels, 10 days for chipmunks) for over two
decades before rapidly reversing since about 1999. Dates for chipmunk and ground squirrel sightings are
significantly correlated with each other, but not with marmot dates. Dates of chipmunk sightings are
significantly correlated negatively with average April temperature and positively with the first date of bare
ground at a permanent snow measurement station. Dates for ground squirrels show a similar pattern.
Sightings of ground squirrels and chipmunks have been as much as 19-20 days earlier or later than each
other, with a mean of 0. Marmots average 4-5 days earlier than the other species but with a tremendous
range (23 days earlier to 47 days later), and over years the relationship has a significant non-linear trend.
Changes by marmots may be related to global warming (April temperature); changes since 1999 in the
other species might be related to regional climate change that has altered winter snowpack, or to an
evolutionary change in behavior.
Invited Talk
IMPLEMENTING ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IN THE FEDERAL CONTEXT: FROM THE
EVERGLADES TO YELLOWSTONE
IOTT, SUSAN
Natural Resources and Environment Team, Government Accounting Office, Boulder, CO
This presentation will explore two examples of federal natural resource management—the South Florida
ecosystem restoration effort and the management of Yellowstone ecosystem’s bison population. Both of
these efforts involve an adaptive management approach to deal with uncertain science and multiple
parties with interests in different outcomes in the areas. The presentation will illustrate where the adaptive
management approaches adopted in these two examples failed to consider key aspects of the decision
process that is critical in a policy context. Finally, the presentation will discuss new adaptive
management guidelines published by the Department of the Interior and the potential for these guidelines
to address the areas of weakness identified in the examples.
Poster
DECADAL HYDROLOGIC REGIMES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN BASIN, CALIFORNIA
JOHNSTONE, JAMES A.
Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley
17
Century-long records of inputs to California’s San Joaquin River show significant decadal (12-15 yr) and
biennial (2.0-2.3 yr) modes of variability. These modes are shown to be mathematically and physically
coupled in a manner which produces weak biennial variability during decadal dry intervals. This coupling
has contributed to a recent tendency for prolonged multi-year droughts in California and the central
Western U.S, most evident during the late 1980s and early 2000s. Conversely, the biennial mode
displays strong activity during decadal wet periods, producing a tendency for extreme annual flows when
both modes act in combination. The linkage between these cyclical modes yields a tendency for
alternating active-wet and stable-dry regimes of ~5-7 years in the San Joaquin Basin, a pattern most
evident since 1950. Similar behavior is also seen in winter precipitation variability throughout the Western
U.S., and is attributed to a pair of annular mode oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere circulation.
Talk
DIFFICULTIES IN THE MEASUREMENT AND INTERPRETATION OF HIGH ELEVATION CLIMATE
DATA IN UTAH
JULANDER, RANDALL P.
Natural Resources Conservation Service, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
Climate change has brought an intense focus on the very limited high elevation data sets available for
analysis. The NRCS Snow Survey snow course and SNOTEL data are one such data set being used to
document climate change. This data collection system was installed, operated and maintained to
produce water supply forecasts in the western United States and was not intended as a research quality
data set. There are a whole host of limitations as to what these data once represented as opposed to
what they may represent today. The systematic bias in these data must be adjusted in order to have a
more accurate view of any long term change or climate sensitivity due to factors such as temperature
changes. As an example, long term vegetation changes have decreased snow accumulation at many
sites in Utah. This decrease in SWE correlates very nicely with observed temperature changes as both
are very linear. However when sites adjacent to each other at similar elevations, aspects and latitude
have dissimilar behavior - one is decreasing and the other is not, then temperature may not be the
dominant cause of change. Indeed in Utah, every long term snow course that has had significant
vegetative changes is declining whereas those that have no vegetation change are not. Thus the
signature of temperature change may not be as dominant as that of various site physical changes.
Temperature data in the SNOTEL system have significant sensor changes as well as poor mounting
techniques that have compromised the data set. Temperature data are also impacted by vegetation
change in many ways that may be misinterpreted. Snow water equivalent to Precipitation ratios are often
misinterpreted and have significant biases not related to temperature. The soil moisture, soil temperature
data set has identified bias related to topographic convergence or divergence as well as being impacted
by vegetation change. Each of these areas are identified and discussed.
Invited Talk
ROARING FORK RIVER: A SUB-REGIONAL INITIATIVE
KATZENBERGER, JOHN W. AND MASONE, MICHELLE
Aspen Global Change Institute, Aspen CO 81611.
We discuss the development of water resource management in the Roaring Fork Valley and how
community stakeholders, elected officials and non-governmental groups have begun the process of
adding climate change to the traditional set of water resource concerns. The Roaring Fork River is an
important tributary of the Upper Colorado River Basin with significant in and out of basin demands on the
valley’s water resource. Starting in the 1880’s, the economy was dominated by mining and ranching – a
period when much of the water resource management, infrastructure and legal instruments were created.
18
Post WWII, traditional activities increasingly gave way to recreational tourism, dominated initially by
skiing. Population growth combined with housing development and summer and winter recreation
accelerated in the 1970’s placing new demands on water resources and riparian habitat. By the end of
the 20th century, the economy became equally driven by summer tourism. Present water resource
management and infrastructure has evolved to accommodate these development pressures. Recently the
Roaring Fork Watershed Collaborative was formed with members from a long list of stakeholder interests
to develop a state of the watershed report and a watershed plan responding to the management needs
and resource demands anticipated this century. Recognizing the need to add climate change to the
traditional set of concerns, the report includes a section on the potential impacts of climate change to the
Roaring Fork Watershed with important implications for management including adaptation strategies.
Talk
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR INVESTIGATING AND MONITORING COLORADO MOUNTAIN SYSTEM
SENSITIVITY TO REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE AT THE EDGE OF THE COLORADO PLATEAU
LANDRY, CHRISTOPHER C. (1); PAINTER, THOMAS H. (2); BARRETT, ANDREW P. (3)
NEFF, JASON C. (4); LAWRENCE, COREY R. (4); CASTLE, SARA (4); STELTZER, HEIDI (5)
MARSHALL, HANS-PETER (6)
(1) Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, Silverton, CO 81433; (2) Department of Geography,
University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112; (3) National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of
Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309; (4) Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder,
CO 80309; (5) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;
(6) Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
Given the critical environmental services that mountain systems provide, and the sensitivity of mountain
systems to climate forcings, a new catchment-scale venue has been developed at a sentinel site in the
Southern Rocky Mountains of Southwest Colorado for snow-driven mountain system research and longterm, integrative monitoring. The San Juan Mountains range rises to elevations exceeding 4,200 m at the
2
eastern edge of the 300,000 km Colorado Plateau. Rapid regional warming is predicted to increase the
scope and severity of desertification and drought throughout the arid plateau while also altering patterns
of precipitation in adjacent mountains. Snowmelt from the San Juan Mountains contributes a significant
share to the greater Colorado River Basin, a two-part construct of infrastructure and water rights straining
to meet the needs of the American Southwest, the nation’s fastest growing region. Recent
interdisciplinary investigations based in the Senator Beck Basin Study Area have revealed
atmospherically driven, snow-based interactions between the Colorado Plateau and the San Juan
Mountains wherein dust from the Colorado Plateau is being deposited in the snowpack and influencing
the timing and rate of snowmelt throughout Colorado’s mountains, the biogeochemistry of mountain soils
and water, and altering earth surface energy budgets at multiple scales. A new study will assess the
latter affect of dust-in-snow, in conjunction with climate warming, on the plant community in Senator Beck
Basin. We show how synergies are achieved by combining integrative mountain/snow system research
with long-term monitoring infrastructure at a strategically located sentinel site. The Senator Beck Basin
Study Area is yielding essential new understanding of alpine processes along with verifying
measurements of regional climate change impacts on Colorado’s mountains and their downstream
beneficiaries.
Poster
IMPROVING HYDROCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST USING
REGIONAL AND LOCAL SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN RUNOFF
LITTELL, JEREMY S. AND HAMLET, ALAN
JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195-5672
19
Hydroclimate reconstructions from tree rings in the Pacific Northwest have so far not yielded the
reconstruction skill evident in more arid regions. We are developing regional hydroclimate reconstructions
tailored to the biophysical variability in mountain watersheds within the region to increase this skill. First,
tree-ring based reconstructions of streamflow in the Pacific Northwest have focused on summer drought
relationships, yet as much as ninety percent of late summer streamflow derives from snowpack in highelevation basins. There are two uncoupled modes of drought in the Pacific Northwest: summer drought
and the failure of winter snowpack, so chronologies targeting both types of drought are essential to
successful reconstruction. Second, significant within-region variability in basin hydrology influences the
source location of water in a given season. By estimating the relative contribution and its form (rain or
snow runoff) of different basins, the tree species and locations used for reconstruction can be matched to
the hydrological processes that contribute most to variability in streamflow. Third, It is also more difficult to
find appropriately sensitive trees in the PNW, so techniques for identifying the most sensitive trees based
on topographically-driven sensitivity to climate must also be used to increase the quality of chronologies.
These techniques rely on geostatistical modeling of runoff and downscaling of regional climate to local
conditions using hydrological models. By combining the variability in the nature of drought, the
subregional variation in source water location, and the local determinants of tree-ring chronology
sensitivity, we will improve the skill of reconstructions developed in the PNW.
Talk
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SOURCE WATERS FOR THE UPPER MERCED RIVER, SIERRA
NEVADA, CALIFORNIA: RUNOFF DISPROPORTIONALITY, SHIFT IN FLOWPATHS AND
HYDROCLIMATIC IMPLICATIONS
LIU, FENGJING (1), CONKLIN, MARTHA H. (1), AND CONRAD, MARK E. (2)
(1) School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA, (2) Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, CA
2
Source waters of stream flow from three elevation bands were estimated using δ H for 2006 and 2007 at
2
the upper Merced River (a record wet and dry year, respectively). δ H values in tributaries at small
catchments (< 120 km2), groundwater and rock glacier outflows were well correlated with mean elevations
of their drainage areas (R2 = 0.98, n = 12, p < 0.001), suggesting a lapse rate of 1.9‰/100m for δ2H in
meteoric water. Contributions of source waters at three elevation bands to stream flow at Briceburg (346
m a.s.l. with a drainage area of 1,873 km2), using a mixing model based on the lapse rate and water and
δ2H budgets at three gaging stations, were then compared with snow depth measured at various
elevations to determine flowpaths. Results indicate that streamflow during the snowmelt season was
dominated by overland flow from elevations above 1,600 m. Stream flow in summer and autumn, during
which snow was depleted, was dominated by subsurface flow from elevations below 2,800 m. But the
contribution of high-elevation band (> 2,800 m) to low flows was still noticeable. Stream flow in March has
significantly (p = 0.002) increased since 1950 in response to the regional trend of earlier onset snowmelt
and decrease in snow relative to rain in spring, but low flow in summer and autumn has not significantly
changed. The lack of a trend for low flows is due to a shift in major flowpaths from overland flow to
subsurface flow from snowmelt to low flow seasons. If the trend of earlier onset snowmelt continues and
reduction in snow extends to higher elevations, however, low flows may tend to decrease. Information on
hydrologic pathways is critical in evaluating stream flow response to climate warming in snowmeltdominated catchments.
Poster
THE USA NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK: TOWARDS AN INTEGRATIVE ASSESSMENT OF
GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACTS AT THE NATIONAL SCALE
LOSLEBEN, MARK, and WELTZIN, JAKE
National Phenology Network, 1955 E. Sixth Street, Tucson, AZ 85721
20
Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological phases, the causes of their timing with regard
to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species.
Although phenology is a far-reaching component of environmental science, it is poorly understood relative
to other ecological patterns and processes. For example, it is unclear how climatic attributes affect the
phenology of different organisms, and how those attributes vary in importance on different spatial and
temporal scales. We know phenology affects the abundance and diversity of organisms, and their
function and interactions in the environment, especially their effects on fluxes in water, energy, and
chemical elements at various scales. With sufficient observations and understanding, phenology can be
used as a predictor for other processes and variables of importance at local to global scales, and
phenology could drive a variety of ecological forecast models with both scientific and practical
applications.
The USA National Phenology Network (NPN) is a new enterprise – a national network of integrated
phenological observations essential to evaluate ongoing environmental changes (www.usanpn.org). The
NPN will integrate with other observation networks, including regional phenology networks, remote
sensing products, emerging technologies and data management capabilities, and will capitalize on myriad
educational opportunities and a new readiness of the public to participate in investigations of nature on a
national scale. This talk will illustrate how integration of spatially-extensive phenological data and models
with both short and long-term climatic forecasts offer a powerful agent for human adaptation to ongoing
and future climate change.
Talk
IAI CRN 2047 DOCUMENTING, UNDERSTANDING AND PROJECTING CHANGES IN THE
HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE IN THE AMERICA CORDILLERA- AN OVERVIEW
LUCKMAN, BRIAN H (1) AND CRN2047 MEMBERS
(1) Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada, N6A 3K1
The Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)’s Collaborative Research Networks are
international, interdisciplinary research teams that are funded for five years and focus on Global Change
issues in the Americas. IAI CRN 2047 was established in 2006 and involves scientists from Argentina,
Brazil, Bolivia, Canada, Chile, Mexico and the United States. Its principal objective is to assess the
ongoing effects of climate change on water resources in selected mountain regions of the Americas by
documenting and understanding the variability of precipitation and streamflow; their linkages to
atmospheric and sea surface temperature controls in adjacent oceans; their variation in time and space;
and how they may vary in the future in response to global environmental changes. In conjunction with
new IAI SGP-HD programs it also examines the potential impact of these changes on socioeconomic
activity. The project focuses on the southern Andes, the Bolivian Altiplano, northern Mexico and the North
American Cordillera. Study sites range from rain-fed river basins in Mexico and Chile where land use
changes have significantly impacted runoff patterns, to small basins fed by rapidly diminishing glaciers
that supply water to the city of La Paz in Bolivia. Major components of the project include the
examination and development of contemporary and proxy climate and runoff data to establish links with
the dominant causes of climate and streamflow variability over the last ca 300 years (e.g. ENSO, PDO,
NAO); evaluation of the available instrumental records as representative of long term climate and
streamflow variability; and documentation and modeling of the mass loss from glaciers and their
contributions to streamflow in selected areas. There is a strong dendrochronological component to this
work following from the activities of IAI CRN03 (1999-2005). This paper will present selected results from
the first two years of the project with particular emphasis on the southern Andes, Canada and the
Altiplano.
Talk
MAPPING TEMPERATURE ACROSS COMPLEX TERRAIN
LUNDQUIST, JESSICA D. (1), PEPIN, NICK (2), AND MOTE, PHIL (3)
(1) Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
21
(2) Department of Geography, University of Portsmouth, PO1 3HE, U.K.
(3) Washington State Climatologist, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
Mountains are spatially complex and sparsely sampled. Temperatures patterns differ diurnally,
synoptically, and seasonally and do not always increase linearly with elevation. However, spatial maps of
temperature are imperative to understand spatial patterns of ecology, snowmelt, climate change, and
frost. Fortunately, new technology has become available to monitor temperature in remote locations,
such as the Onset Hobo and the Maxim i-button. Hundreds of these self-recording sensors have been
deployed in Yosemite National Park, California; Niwot Ridge and Rocky Mountain National Park,
Colorado; the Eastern Pyrenees, France; and Mt. Rainier, Washington over the past several years. The
resulting temperature data, combined with empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), can be used to identify
the dominant spatial temperature patterns within each study area and how they vary in time. The spatial
patterns of temperature are correlated with topography, such as windward-slope, lee-slope, valley, or
ridge. Some patterns, such as nocturnal drainage and cold air pools, appear in all the study areas. Here
we demonstrate an automated algorithm for using a digital elevation model to map where cold air pools
and test it against data from the study sites listed above. These maps are then used to guide weather
station deployments and temperature interpolation strategies.
Invited Talk
DEVELOPING DETAILED HYDRO-CLIMATE SURFACES FOR THE UPPER ST. MARY WATERSHED,
MONTANA-ALBERTA
MACDONALD, RYAN (1), JAMES BYRNE (1), STEFAN KIENZLE (1), AND DANNY BLAIR (2)
1
University of Lethbridge, AB, Canada; 2University of Winnipeg, MN, Canada
An understanding of local variability in climatic conditions over complex terrain is imperative to making
accurate assessments of impacts from climate change on fresh water ecosystems (Daly, 2006). The
derivation of representative spatial data in mountainous environments poses a significant challenge to the
modelling community. This presentation describes the current status of a long term ongoing mountain
hydro-climate model development program. We are developing a gridded hydro-climate dataset for the
upper St. Marys basin using SimGrid (Larson, 2008; Lapp et al., 2005; Sheppard, 1996), a model that
applies the Mountain Climate Model (MTCLIM; Hungerford et al., 1989) to simulate hydro-climatic
conditions over diverse terrain. The model uses GIS based terrain categories (TC) classified by slope,
aspect, elevation, and soil water storage. SimGrid provides daily estimates of solar radiation, air
temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, snowpack and soil water storage over space. Earlier versions
of the model have been applied in the St. Mary (Larson, 2008) and upper Oldman basins (Lapp et al.,
2005), giving realistic estimates of hydro-climatic variables. The current study demonstrates
improvements to the estimation of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and soil water storage over the
St. Mary basin. Snow survey data from the USGS were used to develop a linear relationship between
average winter precipitation and elevation. This relationship is used to derive TC winter isohyets over the
watershed. Better estimations of minimum and maximum temperatures over the watershed are enabled
through the use of lapse rates obtained from NCEP reanalysis data for each day of the historical period
(1960-1990). Soil water storage data for the upper drainage were derived with GIS and included in
SimGrid to estimate soil water flux over the time period. These changes help improve the estimation of
spatial climatic variability over the basin while accounting for topographical influence. Spatial hydroclimatic surfaces from the SimGrid model are applied to assess the hydrologic response to environmental
change in the St. Mary watershed.
Poster
WHITEBARK PINE CITIZEN SCIENTISTS PROJECT: A HANDS-ON APPROACH TO MONITORING
CATASTROPHIC WHITEBARK PINE LOSS IN THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE ECOSYSTEM
MACFARLANE, W. WALLACE (1), LOGAN, JESSE A. (2), WILLCOX, LOUISA (3)
22
(1) Geo/Graphics, Inc., 90 W. Center, Logan, UT 94321, (2) EnviroWise Design, 9C Avalon CT. Box 482,
Emigrant, MT, 59027, (3) Natural Resources Defense Council, P.O. Box 70, Livingston, MT 59047
Massive outbreaks of a variety of bark beetles have recently or are presently occurring across the forests
of western North America. These outbreaks include the extensive die-off of piñon pine in the south west,
devastating outbreaks of spruce beetle in Alaska, and unprecedented mountain pine beetle outbreaks in
the U.S. and Canadian Rocky Mountains. All of these events involve native species that are responding in
unusual ways to recent global warming that has been particularly severe in the American west. Among
the most ecologically disruptive of these is the eruption of sustained outbreak populations of mountain
pine beetles (MPB) in high elevation, whitebark pine forests.
Whitebark pine is the foundation species for high-elevation forests of the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains,
including the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Loss of these forests holds important
consequences concerning the ecological amenities they provide, from maintaining healthy watersheds to
providing critical wildlife habitat. Although the losses that have already occurred in the GYE are
substantial, no one knows their true extent. The lack of effective monitoring of bark beetle mortality in
whitebark pine results from inherent limitations to the Forest Service Aerial Detection Survey (ADS)
combined with insufficient funding. As a result, important policy decisions such as the delisting of the GYE
grizzly bear population are being made based on inadequate and/or misleading information.
In response to the lack of effective whitebark mortality monitoring, a group of concerned citizens has
organized to provide reliable, on-the-ground accounting of the extent and severity of mortality. In this
poster we provide background information on the ecological and societal events that led to formation of
this Citizen Scientists initiative, as well as the information structure and techniques we have devised that
integrate Google Groups, Google Documents, and Google Earth along with ESRI GIS software for
effective implementation.
Poster
TRENDS IN SNOWPACK EVOLUTION, SPRING PRECIPITATION, AND STREAMFLOW IN THE
CROWN OF THE CONTINENT ECOSYSTEM
MARSH, WENDY(1,2), PEDERSON, GREGORY(1,2,3), FAGRE, DANIEL(1), GRAY, STEPHEN(4)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT 59717, (2) Big Sky
Institute, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, (3) School of Natural Resources, University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, and (4) Water Resources Data System, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY
82071
The majority of the Northern Rockies’ water resources are in the mountain snowpack. As a natural
hydrologic storage reservoir, snowpack contributes between 60 and 80% of the annual runoff in the
mountain watersheds of the Western U.S. The Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) is a headwaters
region for the Columbia and Missouri River systems, and documentation of declining snowpack, along
with earlier spring run-off, has raised significant concerns about future water resources. We examined
how increases in regional temperatures, and changes in the evolution of snowpack (e.g. peak SWE to
zero SWE) and seasonal precipitation are changing the hydrologic response within the CCE. Records
from 37 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 14 stream gages from free-flowing rivers, and 37 valley
meteorological stations (MET) were analyzed. Results show a decrease in regional snowpack with peak
SWE arriving earlier in the year. Snow accumulates on fewer days, and an increasing number of ablation
days has resulted in a 1-2 week earlier snow melt-out (ca. 1969). SNOTEL temperature records show
dramatic decreases in the number of frost/freeze-days and a rapid 2-3°C rise in the winter and spring.
Interestingly, we find no evidence for a significant change in center-of-mass timing (CT) for streams within
the CCE. There are, however, dramatic changes in the amount, variability, and duration of the run-off
period between 50% and 75% cumulative discharge. Overall increases in spring precipitation observed at
valley-MET stations and a shift from a spring snow- to a rain-dominated system explains why earlier
snowmelt and decreasing snowpack have not corresponded with earlier CT in stream discharge.
23
Changes in spring precipitation also likely resulted in changes between 50% and 75% cumulative
discharge. These findings have important implications for ecological processes and water resources.
Poster
FROM A POINT TO A BASIN: COMPARING CONTINUOUS, POINT SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS
FROM AN AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION WITH EXTENSIVE, HIGH RESOLUTION BASIN-WIDE
DEPTHS IN SENATOR BECK BASIN, CO
MARSHALL, HANS-PETER (1,2), GLEASON, J. ANDREW (1,3), LANDRY, CHRIS (4),
MCCREIGHT, JAMES (5)
(1) Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; (2) Cold Regions
Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; (3) Department of Geology and Geophysics,
University Wyoming, Laramie, WY; (4) Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, Silverton, CO;(5)
National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Due to high spatial variability in snow depth and SWE that exists at scales less than 100m, the
relationship between point measurements of snow and the basin-wide and regional mean depth and SWE
is complex. Models typically use statistical relationships between point measurements of depth/SWE and
measured stream flow, however these relationships will change with changes in climate. In addition, in
locations with a short history of measurements, stream flow estimates are subject to large uncertainties.
Extensive, basin-wide measurements with a highly portable microwave radar have been made throughout
Senator Beck Basin over the past 2 years. These measurements are used to estimate snow depth and
SWE at several million locations throughout the basin and this detailed spatial distribution is compared
with snow depth measurements at two automatic weather stations, one above and one below treeline.
Poster
CHARACTERIZING HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY IN TRIBUTARY SYSTEMS OF THE UPPER
COLORADO RIVER BASIN
MATTER, MARGARET A. (1), GARCIA, LUIS A. (1) AND FONTANE, DARRELL G. (1)
(1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO.
80525
Increasing hydrologic variability is cited as a major cause of decreasing accuracy and lead time of water
supply forecasts in the Colorado River Basin. Factors contributing to hydrologic variability include climate
cycles, climate change and modifications to land use, land cover and water use. The external forcings
affect temperature and precipitation conditions related to climate cycles, so this research strives to
understand the underpinnings of hydrologic variability associated with climate cycles, and subsequent
effects of climate change and modifications to land use, etc. over the 20th Century in tributaries of the
th
Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Analysis results for three climate cycles over the 20 Century for
tributaries of the UCRB show that the hydrologic variability includes: (a) complementary temperature and
precipitation patterns associated with relative magnitude of annual basin yield; (b) the complementary
patterns are characteristic of the type of climate cycle (e.g., warmer/drier or cooler/wetter); (c) the
complementary patterns are acted upon by external forcings, including climate change and modifications
to land use, which change details of the patterns; and (d) although details may change, the fundamental
complementary temperature and precipitation patterns for a particular type of climate cycle (e.g.,
cooler/wetter cycle) remain intact. Thus, despite increasing hydrologic variability, there is predictability
when variability is assessed within the context of individual climate cycles. The results may establish a
foundation for improving forecast models and data to increase forecast accuracy and advance lead time
by as much as 6-7 months or more. In addition, the results may also be used in downscaling climate
models to regional or basin scales.
Poster
24
ROLE OF THE NORTHERN ANNULAR MODE IN FOCUSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES
MCAFEE, STEPHANIE A., RUSSELL, JOELLEN L.
Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
Recent studies suggest that much of the recent hydrological change in the western United States is due
to anthropogenic global warming. However, the pattern of climate change in the western United States
appears to be distinct from the global pattern of warming. The western United States is warming more
than the global average, much of that trend is concentrated in the spring, and there appears to be an
abrupt shift to warmer conditions in the mid-1980s. This earlier spring onset is reflected in earlier
snowmelt and increased wildfire activity later in the summer. We suggest that increases in the Northern
Annular Mode (NAM) index drive earlier spring onset. The NAM experienced a step change to more
positive values in the mid-1980s. High index values are associated with 1) a reduction in storm activity,
2) increased 500 mb heights, 3) warmer temperatures, 4) changing precipitation patterns, and 5) early
browning (reduced NDVI) over much of the western United States, particularly during the spring and
when the mid-winter NAM index reaches values greater than +1 or +1.5, which has happened
significantly more frequently since the mid-1980’s. Conversely, the winter NAM index has not fallen
below -1 since the mid-1980’s, despite doing so 15 times between 1899 and 1986. Models and climate
theory suggest that surface warming and stratospheric cooling related to ozone destruction will lead to
higher NAM index values. This implies that while the pattern of climate change seen in the West is not
unique – in fact it seems typical of high NAM index conditions – the increased frequency of those events
may be linked to human alteration of the climate system and their impacts exacerbated by the general
warming trend.
Invited Talk
ADAPTATION CHALLENGES IN THE WEST: CLIMATE, FIRE, AND INSECTS
MCKENZIE, DON; PETERSON, DAVE; AND LITTELL, JEREMY
University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Western mountain ecosystems face a number of changes, both gradual and abrupt, from global
warming. Because of the inertia in mountain forests from mature trees’ being resilient to gradually
increasing temperatures, most sudden or rapid changes will likely be precipitated by changes in
disturbance regimes. The principal disturbance regimes in western mountains are wildfire and insect
outbreaks. We expect these disturbances to interact with each other and other changes such as loss of
snowpack, increasing air pollution, and human-caused changes such as logging and forest fragmentation,
to exacerbate and accelerate the direct effects of climate. We present new ideas from an ongoing
thought experiment, regarding “stress complexes”, or interacting processes that force ecosystem change,
to help identify specific vulnerabilities of western mountain ecosystems. Vulnerabilities to rapid
irreversible changes will be perhaps the biggest challenge for adaptation.
Invited Talk
THE NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (NARCCAP):
RESULTS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST
MEARNS, LINDA O.
Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,
CO
NARCCAP is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States,
Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale
projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple
regional climate models(RCMs)and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by
25
nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2
SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada.
The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP
reanalyses. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs
that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional
climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and
NCAR WRF. Candidate AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian
CGCM3 and the GFDL model. The resulting climate model runs will form the basis for multiple high
resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts assessments over North
America. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model
and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the
simulations of the regional models. There also will be opportunities for double nesting over key regions
through which additional modelers in the regional modeling community will be able to participate in
NARCCAP. Additional key science issues are being investigated such as the importance of compatible
physics in the nested and nesting models. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple runs are being
developed by geophysical statisticians. In this talk, results from Phase I of the project, the RCM
simulations using boundary conditions from NCEP reanalyses, will be presented, focusing on the
mountainous western North America. Climate change results from the two time slice experiments will
also be presented.
Poster
GEOGRAPHIC, PERIGLACIAL, AND CLIMATIC RELATIONSHIPS OF AMERICAN PIKA (OCHOTONA
PRINCEPS) IN THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN
MILLAR, CONNIE, BOB WESTFALL, AND DIANE DELANY
USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Sierra Nevada Research Center, Albany, CA
American pikas (Ochotona princeps, Order Lagomorpha) are small herbivores restricted to patchily
distributed, high-elevation, talus slopes of western North America. They are vulnerable to brief exposures
of direct heat and warm ambient temperatures. This condition, coupled with the geometry of decreasing
area on mountain peaks, has led to the species being considered at risk from global warming, and
extirpation of low-elevation sites is considered inevitable. We surveyed pika non-systematically,
documenting 173 pika locations during summer and fall of 2007. These included 140 sites in the E.
Sierra Nevada between W. Fork Carson River and Rock Creek Cyn, and 33 sites in six W. Great Basin
ranges, including the White Mtns, Glass Mtn Range, Bodie Mtns, Monitor Pass Range, Sweetwater Mtns,
and Wassuk Range. We used a rapid assessment method based on fresh pellets; this method indicates
modern usage (ca ≤5 yrs) but not necessarily current occupation. The sites were distributed on all slope
aspects with a slight preference to NE and E, and ranged from 1827m to 3768m. Such low elevations are
not commonly reported at this latitude. Over 80% of the sites occurred in active or relict rock-ice features
(RIFs), most commonly rock glaciers (cirque and valley wall) and boulder stream landforms. Periglacial
RIFs create ideal habitat for pika, including distribution of rock type and size, cold-air ventilation in
summer and warm-air circulation in winter (Balsch and chimney circulation), persistent wet meadows at
their base, patches of vegetation scattered on the rock carapace, and conditions for predator avoidance
and den habitat. The climatic envelope of our pika sites (PRISM model) overall averaged 936 mm
precipitation (range 279-1610 mm); minimum temperatures averaged -3.7°C (range -6.8-0.6°C). Relative
to normal distribution, minimum site temperatures were skewed toward cold values, corroborating the
importance of temperature and suggesting a disequilibrium loss of populations in the warm range.
Elevation and minimum temperature of pika sites were not significantly correlated, suggesting that RIF
environments create adequate habitat not strongly related to elevation, a finding about RIFs we have
described previously. Given documentation by pika researchers of extirpations of low-elevation historic
pika populations, in our continuing work we will emphasize survey of low RIF sites for pika in hopes of
elucidating vulnerabilities in those environments.
26
Talk
HOW WELL DO FIRST FLOWERING DATES MEASURE PLANT RESPONSES TO CLIMATE
CHANGE?
MILLER-RUSHING, ABRAHAM J. (1,2), INOUYE, DAVID W. (1,2), AND PRIMACK, RICHARD B. (3)
(1) Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, (2) Department of Biology,
University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, (3) Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston,
MA 02215
First flowering dates are occurring earlier than they did in the past in many locations around the world. It
is often assumed, implicitly or explicitly, that the changes in first flowering dates describe the phenological
behavior of entire populations. However, first flowering dates represent one extreme of the flowering
distribution and may be susceptible to undesirable confounding effects. We used long-term observations
of flowering in Colorado and Massachusetts to test whether changes in population size and sampling
frequency affect observations of first flowering dates. We found that the effect of population size on first
flowering dates depended on location. Changes in population size strongly affected first flowering dates in
Massachusetts but did not affect them in Colorado. The lack of effect in Colorado may reflect the rapid
onset of spring after snowmelt and fixed developmental schedules of the plants at this sub-alpine site. We
also found that changes in sampling frequency can impact on observed changes in first flowering dates
and other aspects of the flowering distribution. Similar to the effect of declines in population size, lower
sampling frequency caused later observations of first flowering. However, lower sampling frequency, if
maintained consistently throughout a study, did not significantly affect estimates of changes in flowering
dates over time or in response to climate. Researchers must consider changes in population size and
sampling frequency when interpreting changes in first flowering dates. In some cases, past results may
need to be reinterpreted. When possible, researchers should observe the entire flowering distribution or
consider tracking peak or mean flowering dates to avoid the confounding effects of population size and
sampling frequency.
Poster
ASSESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF THE NRCS SNOTEL SYSTEM IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BASIN
NOLIN, ANNE W. AND BROWN, AIMEE
Department Of Geosciences, Wilkinson 104, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
The Columbia River is the third largest in the United States and its basin encompasses an area of almost
2
907,700 km . The Columbia River Treaty negotiation process will begin in 2014 and a key area of
concern is the impact of climate change on seasonal snowpacks. Approximately 50% of the annual
precipitation in the mountains of the region falls as snow during the winter months. There are 290
SNOTEL sites in the basin, ranging in elevation from 914 m to 2919 m. The goal of this research is to
determine how representative SNOTEL site locations are of the snowpack in the Columbia River basin.
We use a digital elevation model and gridded climate data from PRISM to assess basin hypsometry,
snow-covered area, and the area of “at-risk” snow in the basin. For the Willamette sub-basin of the
Columbia, the average elevation SNOTEL site elevation is 1132 m (maximum = 1500 m, minimum = 609
m). In the Willamette, 13% of all the lands in the basin are at elevations above 1200 m. However, there
are no SNOTEL sites in the upper 1707 meters of elevation, resulting in the sites failing to represent
about 50% of the snow covered area in the basin. These underrepresented elevation bands are where
the climatologically stable snowpacks are located, projected to be the main snow-derived water source in
future climate scenarios. We expand upon this research, presenting results for the full Columbia River
basin and looking specifically at key sub-basins within the Columbia.
Poster
GLACIER MELT MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO SUMMERTIME UPPER HOOD RIVER
STREAMFLOW
27
NOLIN, ANNE W. (1), PHILLIPPE, JEFF (1)
(1) Department Of Geosciences, Wilkinson 104, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
Mount Hood is the tallest mountain in Oregon and its 6 of its 11 glaciers feed into the five irrigation
districts in Hood River Valley. The objectives of this research are to:
1. determine the interseasonal and interannual proportions of glacier meltwater to streamflow in the
Upper Middle Fork Hood River;
2. estimate changes in glacier meltwater production on timescales of 10- to 50-years and impacts on
low flows in the Upper Middle Fork Hood River.
Our approach uses a combination of direct streamflow measurements and a snowmelt-runoff model.
During summer 2007, we installed water height recorders at the termini of Eliot and Coe glaciers and at
locations several kilometers further downstream. These were calibrated using in situ discharge
measurements. Isotope tracers were also used to compute the relative contributions of water from glacier
melt and groundwater. Our measurements indicate that during the lowest flow period of the summer,
roughly 74% of the water in the Upper Middle Fork Hood River is derived from glacier melt. These data
also served to calibrate a glacier melt-runoff model. To assess the effects of future glacier recession on
late summer streamflow, we ran the model for progressively smaller glacier areas, holding temperature at
modern levels. Our projections indicate that in about fifty years, the glacier melt contributions to
streamflow in the Upper Middle Fork Hood River will have declined by about 50%. We also examined the
sensitivity glacier-derived streamflow of the glaciers to changes in temperature using a fixed glacier size
but changing temperature. Lastly, we examine the relative contributions of the debris-covered and debrisfree portions of the glaciers to overall streamflow.
Poster
A “GLORIA” LONG-TERM MONITORING SITE FOR DETECTION OF CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES
IN ALPINE PLANT COMMUNITIES IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, COLORADO, USA
NYDICK, KOREN (1) AND CRAWFORD, JULIE (2)
(1) Mountain Studies Institute, Silverton, CO 81433, (2) University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
In the summer of 2006 the Mountain Studies Institute (MSI) initiated a long-term monitoring program to
detect climate-induced changes in alpine plant communities in the San Juan Mountains. MSI’s project is
one “target area” in the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA). This
international program now has 35 active target areas, with 6 in the USA. The San Juan site currently is
the most southerly target area along a transect in the Rocky Mountains. Ninety-nine plant species were
identified at the San Juan target region, with 22, 58, 56 and 43 species found in plots on each of four
mountain summits from highest to lowest elevation. The average number of species found across all
target regions globally is 92 and the median is 79. The San Juan target region also has an educational
component. Undergraduate students from Fort Lewis College and Truman State University participated in
the field work. In addition, the baseline data are being analyzed as a PhD dissertation exploring plantenvironment relationships and the effect of taxonomic resolution. The plots will be re-surveyed in 2011
and every five years thereafter with soil temperature dataloggers being downloaded more frequently.
Talk
THE SAN JUAN CLIMATE INITIATIVE: A SCIENTIST-STAKEHOLDER PARTNERSHIP FOR
UNDERSTANDING AND ADAPTING TO PLACE-BASED CLIMATE CHANGE
NYDICK, KOREN
Mountain Studies Institute, Silverton, CO 81433
While climate change science has progressed rapidly, the relevance and applicability of this science to
local-scale understanding and decision-making is lacking for many geographic areas. Place-based
28
studies of climate change are clustered around well-established research centers, leaving other areas
void of information. When information does exist, it is not often at the wrong scale or is otherwise
inaccessible to the stakeholders who need it. Nor are there tools readily available that would help
managers to incorporate climate science into their local planning. The San Juan Mountain/Four Corners
region is one such geographic area that currently is under-served by climate science and adaptation
planning. The San Juan Climate Initiative seeks to increase scientific understanding of climate change
and its effects in this region and to synthesize this information into usable formats and tools for land
managers and other stakeholders. The San Juan Collaboratory was formed to further develop the San
Juan Climate Initiative and also address other pressing environmentally-based issues in this region. This
partnership of the Mountain Studies Institute, University of Colorado at Boulder, Fort Lewis College, San
Juan Public Lands Center (USFS/BLM) and others is well positioned to take on this initiative and to
develop a model for other under-served regions. I will describe several efforts underway, others that are
planned, and opportunities for additional collaboration.
Invited Talk
ADAPTATION CONSIDERATIONS FOR NATIONAL FOREST MANAGEMENT IN LIGHT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
O’HALLORAN, KATHY A. (1) AND DAVID L. PETERSON (2)
(1) US Forest Service, Olympic National Forest, 1835 Black Lake Blvd SW, Olympia, WA 98512, (2) US
Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 400 N 34th St, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103
Management of our National Forest lands is becoming ever more critical and more challenging in the face
of climate change. The Olympic National Forest managers are just beginning to understand the potential
impacts of a changing climate. Climate research has not been readily available to managers and
published literature is often hard to interpret for a specific locale. With the formation of a research
management partnership, Olympic managers and scientists have developed a conceptual basis for
framing management considerations in light of climate change. Several of the key concepts for
adaptation are: managing for the future and recognizing that historical information may not be a good
predictor; managing for diversity at multiple scales; and cross boundary collaboration. Closer interaction
with the science community is needed to jump start the technological transfer of existing information as
well as assist managers as we deal with increasing levels of uncertainty.
Talk
MULTI-SCALE RECONSTRUCTIONS OF SNOWPACK VARIABILITY FOR KEY WATERSHEDS IN
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA: TREE-RINGS PROVIDE INSIGHTS ON THE PAST 500 TO 1000
YEARS
PEDERSON, GREGORY(1,2,3), GRAY, STEPHEN(4), GRAUMLICH, LISA(2), FAGRE, DANIEL(1), AND
SHINKER, J.J.(5)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT 59717, (2) School
of Natural Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (3) Big Sky Institute, Montana State
University, Bozeman, MT 59717, (4) Water Resources Data System, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY
82071, (5) Department of Geography, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071
One of the most robust lines of evidence for climate change impacts in the Western US is the decline in
th
snowpack during the latter half of the 20 century. It is critical to ascertain whether this trend is
anomalous relative to long-term patterns of snowpack dynamics. We are using tree-ring data networks
coupled with NRCS snowcourse based reconstructions of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) to reconstruct
snowpack variability at multiple watershed scales. Snowcourse records provide the raw data needed to
generate calibration datasets of April 1 SWE. Records span 1930 to present, and were utilized to
generate historic SWE anomalies from the scale of individual USGS level 6 watershed to the entire Upper
Colorado River Basin. Across multiple watershed scales historic SWE records were used in combination
with more then 600 existing and recently collected tree-ring chronologies to produce 500 to 1000 year
29
records of April 1 SWE variability. Initial work targets key high-mountain headwaters for the Upper
Colorado, Upper Yellowstone/Missouri, and Columbia/Saskatchewan Rivers. For the Colorado Plateau
region, 9 out of 17 level 6 watersheds achieve quality reconstructions (R2> 0.45) of April 1 SWE, and a
reconstruction extending back to 1181 AD was produced for the entire Upper Colorado River Basin.
Preliminary analyses show marked interannual to multidecadal variability in total April 1 SWE.
Comparisons with existing proxy records of Pacific Basin climate show coupled ENSO and PDO
influences on the total amount of mountain snowpack in these regions. The strength and sign of these
relationships is shown to vary over time and on a watershed-by-watershed basis. These and other results
exemplify why long-term records are essential baseline information for evaluating recent and future
changes in mountain snowpack. The overarching goal of this project is to lay the foundation for snowpack
reconstructions that encompass high mountain areas in all of western North America.
Poster
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICAN MOUNTAINS: A GLOBAL CONTEXT
PEPIN, NICK C. (1), LUNDQUIST, JESSICA (2)
(1) Department Of Geography, Buckingham Building, Lion Terrace, University of Portsmouth, P01 3HE,
U.K.; (2) Department Of Civil And Environmental Engineering, University Of Washington, Wilcox 165, Box
352700, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
We examine surface temperature trends (1948-2002) from over 1000 homogeneity adjusted stations from
the GHCNv2 and CRUv2 surface datasets with a focus on high elevation sites (over 500 metres above
sea-level). 552 of these sites are in North America with elevations ranging up to 3000 m, the vast majority
in the west of the United States. Mean warming in North American mountains (+0.12°C/decade) exceeds
the global average, and over 80% of sites have positive slopes. However, despite model predictions of
enhanced warming at higher elevations, there is no simple increase in trend magnitude with elevation.
Other factors are clearly more influential, most importantly mean annual temperature. There is a marked
enhancement of warming rates at sites where mean annual temperatures are at present near 0°C and as
temperatures rise well above this critical threshold warming rates reduce. This is clear evidence that
cryospheric changes (earlier snowmelt in spring, reduced snowpack, melting glaciers) are magnifying
temperature response in this critical zone. There are also strong relationships between trend magnitude
and topography, incised mountain valley sites showing much more rapid change on average than
mountain peaks, which are show less variable warming rates. This is because local factors such as
urbanisation and land-use change enhance spatial heteorogeneity at valley sites, while mountain peaks
and exposed slopes are better indicators of regional scale forcing. We should expand our database of
mountain summit observing locations for this reason.
Poster
RESPONSES OF BURYING BEETLE LIFE-HISTORY TO CHANGE IN ELEVATION: A RECIPROCAL
TRANSPLANT EXPERIMENT.
PONTIUS, KIRA E. (1,2), SMITH, ROSEMARY J. (1,2)
(1) Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID 83209, (2) Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Gothic, CO
81224
Local climate or its correlate, elevation, can influence life-history strategies. I examined how the burying
beetle, Nicrophorus investigator, alters reproductive decisions based on breeding elevation in a montane
environment (Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory). N. investigator is a carrion beetle that reproduces
on small dead rodents. Through a reciprocal transplant study, I bred 138 beetle families at two elevations
(~2800-3200m), replicated at 3 sites. Larvae in each family were weighed and counted, left overwinter,
and collected upon emergence the subsequent year. I determined that parents reduce the number of
larvae produced when they are moved to a higher elevation and provide greater parental care. Beetles
also have greater overwinter survival at higher elevations. Beetles emerge earlier at lower elevations and
emergence date is correlated with snow melt date and snow depth each year. These results indicate that
30
the breeding environment exerts an affect on burying beetle behavior and life-history indicating a plastic
response to change in environment. This has implications for predicting effects of climate change on
populations.
Poster
MIDGE-BASED AIR TEMPERATURE INFERENCE MODEL PROVIDES EVIDENCE FOR PEAK
HOLOCENE WARMTH AT ~5200 YR BP IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, USA
PORINCHU, DAVID F. (1), REINEMANN, SCOTT (1), MARK, BRYAN (1), AND BOX, JASON (1)
Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210
Changes to hydrology arguably comprise the most critical potential impact of climate change to the
Intermountain West of the United States. Great Basin National Park (GBNP) exemplifies the heightened
concern over present and future water availability in this region given a proposed pipeline project to
supply growing population centers in the south. Explicitly reconstructing the regional and sub-regional
responses of the thermal and hydrologic regimes in the Great Basin to climate forcing during the
Holocene will provide valuable insight to the nature of future local responses to climate change. Our
recent research indicates that subfossil midge remains recovered from sub-alpine lakes in GBNP can
provide robust air temperature reconstructions spanning the 20th and 21st centuries. The chironomidbased air and water temperature reconstructions were developed using inference models based on a 90
lake data set from the Great Basin of United States with the air temperature inference model calibrated
with air temperature obtained from the PRISM dataset (Oregon State University). A Holocene core
extracted from Stella Lake, a small sub-alpine lake located in GBNP, was analyzed for magnetic
susceptibility, LOI and subfossil midges. Application of the chironomid-based inference model, described
above, to the Stella Lake midge stratigraphy indicates that notable changes in LOI and MJAT
characterize the record. Of particular interest is the midge-inferred increase in MJAT which occurred at ~
5200 cal yr BP. Continued high resolution analysis of subfossil midge remains recovered from Stella Lake
will enable reconstruction of Great Basin paleotemperatures over a longer time-scale, put
contemporaneous changes into context and increase our understanding of the linkage between these
localized changes and regional climate dynamics. Understanding the magnitude and range of past
climate variability is vital for predicting future water availability and secondary ecological responses to
climate change for this region.
Invited Talk
CLIMATE SERVICES IN SUPPORT OF ADAPTATION
PULWARTY, ROGER S.
National Integrated Drought Information System, NOAA Climate Program, Boulder Colorado USA 80302
Climate variability and change impacts national and local goals, within and across sectors, including,
water, energy, health, agriculture, ecosystem management, and the coastal zone. In recognition of this
long-standing observation, there is enabling legislation in the U.S. Congress to establish a National
Climate Service, led by NOAA, as part of the reauthorized U.S. Global Change Research/Climate Change
Science Program. Climate services have been defined as the timely production and delivery of useful
climate data, information and knowledge to decision makers. In this paper we map the evolution of the
idea of climate services and describe the network and infrastructure existing and needed to develop and
coordinate such services.
Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information necessary to inform adaptation
and mitigation across sectors, and under changing baselines and extremes, represent critical emergent
needs. While existing "service-type" activities can be identified in many settings (e.g. federal, academic,
private), we show that the problem is actually one of crafting effective implementation strategies for
improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"), coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion,
and most importantly highlighting common interests among the different groups.
31
Onging implementation of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS Act 2006; Public
Law 109-430) is showing that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections,
risk assessment and usable information requires knowledge provision systems for early warning across
temporal and spatial scales, and anticipatory coordination between implementing agents and information
providers. Integrated resources management (e.g. water, coastal zone, high elevation ecosystems)
provides an important framework to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental
and administrative systems. An effective climate service would facilitate integrated appraisals of
adaptation and mitigation options across multiple sectors and across an appropriate (user- dependent)
ensemble of near and longer-term future climates.
We assess how these integrated service perspectives (such as NIDIS) have been developed,
communicated and have value in improving decision-making processes for adaptation in a changing
climate.
Talk
PAST AND FUTURE CHANGES IN ALPINE TUNDRA IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
RANDIN, CHRISTOPHE F. (1,2), HUMPHRIES, HOPE, C. (1), LISTON, GLEN E. (3), HIEMSTRA,
CHRISTOPHER A. (3), YOCCOZ, NIGEL G. (4), BOWMAN, WILLIAM D., SEASTEDT, TIMOTHY R.,
SUDING, KATHARINE N. (5) AND WILLIAMS, MARK W. (1)
(1) INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0450,USA, (2) DEE, University of Lausanne,
CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland, (3) CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375,
USA, (4) Institute of Biology, University of Tromsø, 9037 Tromsø, Norway, (5) Ecology and Evolutionary
Biology, University of California Irvine Irvine, CA 92697-2525, USA
Improving our understanding of climate, snowpack and alpine plant distribution interactions at fine spatial
resolutions (meters or 10s of meters) is an enduring goal of alpine plant ecology. Understanding and
quantifying these interactions is required to anticipate and predict future species patterns given
anticipated temperature and precipitation changes.
The 350x500m study area is located at 3500 m elevation on Niwot Ridge, in the alpine tundra of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. To parameterize species distribution model (SDM), we assessed the spatiotemporal changes of 80 plant species using 81 permanent plots covering 17 years (records in
1989,1990,1995,1997 and 2006). Partial triadic analysis showed a shift of species structure in vegetation
plots from 1989-2006. Correspondence analysis of 1989 and 2006 inventories revealed an important
species composition shift in plots located at the interface between wet meadow and snowbed
communities. In addition, these two communities changed the most during this time period. Analysis of
climate data suggest that these community changes are associated with warmer temperatures during the
melting period in late spring and summer.
To obtain a predictive capacity for the SDM given anticipated modifications of temperature and moisture,
a spatially explicit model of snow accumulation and ablation (SnowModel) was driven by 17 years of daily
meteorogical data (1989-2006) to yield maps of snow depth and soil moisture. Snow depth and soil
moisture explain up to 80% of plant spatial distributions within the study area. Thus, robust projections of
SDM are possible using simulated proxy variables and future projections of temperature and precipitation
st
patterns over the 21 century.
Talk
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE 20TH
CENTURY
RANGWALA, IMTIAZ
Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, NJ 08901.
32
I will present an analysis of trends in observed climate variables including surface air temperature,
precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth for the San Juan Mountain (SJM) region in
the southwest Colorado during the 20th century (1906-2005). These observations were obtained for the
National Weather Service (NWS), SNOTEL and Snow Course stations. My analysis suggests a 2 oC
warming between 1906 and 2005. A 1.5 oC warming between 1920-2005 is also concurrent with the
temperature trends obtained for the western Colorado from an independent analysis. An abrupt warming
in the SJM region (0.62 oC/decade) between 1990 and 2005, confirmed at both the NWS and SNOTEL
station, was found to be among the highest in the contiguous United States. The seasonal trends in
warming during the 1985-2005 period vary between the NWS and SNOTEL stations – higher warming in
winter at the NWS sites, and in spring and summer at the SNOTEL sites. I expect these differences to be
associated with the elevation of these sites, which becomes important for the timing of snowmelt
processes. SNOTEL stations are 2500 ft higher than NWS stations on average. Annual snowfall at the
NWS sites has reduced by about 25% between 1995-2005, which is consistent with a 25% reduction in
snow depth at Snow Course sites, and a 40% reduction in SWE at both SNOTEL and Snow Course sites
for the same time period. On a monthly basis, April demonstrates the largest decrease in snow depth
during the 1995-2005 period, even though, the snowfall during April has not changed significantly over
that period. Trends in precipitation in the SJM region are weakly correlated to the Pacific climate indices
(ENSO, PDO) until 1970s, however, these relationships completely breakdown between 1985 and 2005.
Talk
CLIMATIC AND TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON THE MASS BALANCE OF A RECEDING CIRQUE
GLACIER, GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA
REARDON, BLASE A. (1), HARPER, JOEL T. (1), FAGRE, DANIEL B. (2), AND DESKINS, A.M. (1)
GEOSCIENCES
Geosciences Department, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, (2) U.S.G.S. Northern Rockies
Science Center, West Glacier, MT 59936
In the U.S., the dramatic retreat of glaciers in Glacier National Park (GNP) has become an icon for a
worldwide trend that is both an effect of, and evidence for, global climate change. While the loss of glacier
area in GNP is higher than in other mountain areas in the contiguous U.S., there have been no
quantitative studies of changes in glacier mass or volume in GNP, and nearly all of the glaciers there exist
at sizes and sites in which their climate sensitivity may be complicated by local topographic processes. It
is thus unclear how directly the dramatic retreat reflects regional climate trends. We present the results to
date of an ongoing study of the mass balance of Sperry Glacier, one of the largest remaining glaciers in
GNP, that aims to partition the climatic and topographic influences controlling its retreat. We used a
glaciological approach for direct measurements of mass balance in 2005 and 2006, which gave annual
net balances -1.22 and -0.87 m w.e. respectively. To calculate multi-decadal mass balances, we used a
geodetic method that compared digitized 1950 and 1960 maps of the glacier surface with a DEM of the
2007 glacier surface created from a differential GPS survey. For the older and longer periods, mean
-1
-1
annual net balances were substantially less negative (-0.27m w.e. a for 1950-60; -0.37 m w.e. a for
1950-2007). Using proxies for accumulation and ablation, we determined that the 2005 and 2006 balance
years were among the driest and warmest, respectively, of recent decades. The cumulative negative
balance since 1950 suggests that while topographic influences measurably affect Sperry Glacier’s mass
balance, it responds primarily to climate, and that despite year-to-year temperature and precipitation
variations, the regional climate is growing ever more unfavorable for small glaciers.
Invited Talk
WESTERN MOUNTAIN CLIMATE FOR 2007-2008 IN PERSPECTIVE
REDMOND, KELLY T.
NOAA Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, 89512-1095
The winter of 2006-2007 left a significant precipitation deficit, especially in the western half of the West.
The Sierra Nevada was especially affected, with snowpack among the lowest on record. After a
33
somewhat promising start, the long-standing drought in the Colorado River system resumed as Lake
Powell dropped further. Summer brought a mixed monsoon, tending to favor Arizona over New Mexico.
July was exceptionally warm in the northern Rockies. La Nina formed and intensified steadily into autumn
and winter, feeding expectations of yet another dry winter Southwest as those in the Northwest braced for
more Moss Helper than usual. After the driest rainy season on record, southern California experienced
another round of devastating fires during a very strong Santa Ana event, reminiscent of those just 4 years
earlier. Flames consumed over 500,000 acres and 2000 homes, with more than $2 billion in losses. The
ensuing winter (2007-2008) proved to be somewhat puzzling in its precipitation patterns. Wet pockets
could be found in the Southwest, and dry pockets in the Northwest. Much of the intermontane West
ended up wet, with the largest percentage excess seen in the San Juan Mountains, a successful attempt
by the atmosphere to impress the attendees of MTNCLIM 2008. For the first time in over a decade or
more, very few parts of the West reported significant precipitation deficits for the winter months. Also,
many parts of the interior West reported an unusually cool or even cold winter, and the West reported its
first cool winter in many years. In February the jet stream shifted north and the southwest dried out, and
the circulation pattern began to strongly resemble the canonical La Nina pattern expected in the West.
With low antecedent soil moisture from the previous winter and the extremely dry spring on the heels of a
promisingly wet mid-winter, streamflow prospects for the Sierra Nevada dropped considerably, to wellbelow average values. Cool conditions in the central Rockies and upper Colorado River basin helped
retain the snow pack, and near MTNCLIM time the snowmelt inflow to Lake Powell was expected to be
near 120 percent of average, the highest in over a decade. However, combined Mead-Powell contents
remained less than half of capacity.
Talk
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GREATER SAGE-GROUSE (Centrocercus urophasianus)
POPULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS: UNDERSTANDING THE
COMBINED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE, ALTERED FIRE REGIMES AND EMERGING INFECTIOUS
DISEASE
SCHRAG, ANNE M. (1), RITTER, JOY (2), AND FORREST, STEVE C. (1)
(1) World Wildlife Fund-Northern Great Plains Program, 202 S. Black, Ste.3, Bozeman, MT 59715
(2) American Wildlands, 321 E. Main, Ste. 418, Bozeman, MT 59715
Habitat degradation, emerging infectious disease, altered fire regimes and global climate change are
leading to the decline of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations throughout the
West. While mounting evidence suggests that habitat fragmentation (including energy development) may
lead to the eventual decimation of the sage-grouse population, it is unclear what role climate change may
have in the equation. This study addresses this the potential direct and indirect effects of climate change
on sage-grouse distribution in the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies (including Montana,
Wyoming, North Dakota and South Dakota) through the following objectives: 1) how will climate change
impact the distribution of Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate v. wyomingensis) and silver
sagebrush (Artemisia cana); 2) how will climate change impact fire regimes and what will be the resultant
impacts on the distribution of shrubland versus grassland distribution; and 3) how will climate change
impact the occurrence of West Nile virus? We used the following modeling techniques to accomplish our
objectives: 1) MAXENT, a maximum entropy model, was used to forecast spatial changes in distribution
of the two sagebrush species; 2) VDDT/TELSA, a landscape simulation model, was used to forecast
impacts of climate change on the distribution of shrubland and grassland; and 3) a .NET ArcGIS-based
degree-day model was used to forecast occurrence of West Nile virus (WNv) in the study area.
Preliminary results suggest a potential overall contraction of range into areas that are currently developed
for energy or are highly likely to be developed in the future. In addition, we found that shifts are likely to
occur in heterogeneous ways that are contrary to the popular belief that species will move northward and
upslope with climate change. We expect to find similarly heterogeneous shifts in ecotypes and WNv
occurrence. We expect that shifts in ecotypes, such as shrublands and grasslands, as well as
occurrence of WNv, will also show great spatial variation across the study area. The results of this study
will provide data to aid in policy decisions, such as listing the sage grouse under the ESA, as well as
management of the species with respect to increased energy development in the region.
34
Talk
INNOVATIVE STORMWATER MANAGEMENT IN MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES: AN ADAPTATION
APPROACH TO INCREASED CLIMATIC VARIABILITY.
SCHREIER, HANS
Institute for Resources & Environment, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C. Canada
Mountain communities are particularly vulnerable to increased storm events and it is becoming evident
that conventional stormwater systems are no longer adequate. A wide range of innovative techniques are
now available to minimize stormwater runoff from individual properties but they need to be integrated with
systems developed in the neighborhoods and within the watershed. Zero runoff from individual properties
is possible for most low and intermediate storms using roofwater collection and infiltration systems,
minimizing impervious surfaces, creating green roofs and requiring significant amounts of topsoil in the
garden area. A water balance model has been developed to determine what the need and the capacity of
these systems should be. The innovations at the property level need to be linked to systems built in the
neighborhood that deal with street runoff and larger storm events. Pervious pavement, permeable parking
lots, and streets with no curbs, gutters and pipes are developed to minimize stormwater generation. For
very large storms selective areas are being identified for flood storage in the form of ponds and wetland
that can not only detain the water but filter out a significant amount of pollutants. The combination of
these measures is the best adaptive management strategy for mountain communities in order to cope
with increased storm variability. Examples of these innovative techniques are currently being tested in
many communities and examples of successful adaptation techniques that are cost effective and more
environmentally friendly will be presented.
Poster
VERIFICATION OF GRIDDED CLIMATE DATA IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
SIMERAL, DAVID B. (1), ABATZOGLOU, JOHN, T. (1), REDMOND, KELLY T. (1), AND MCCURDY,
GREG, D. (1)
(1) Desert Research Institute (DRI), Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Western Regional Climate
Center (WRCC), Reno, NV 89512
We present preliminary analysis and results from several DRI-WRCC observational networks located in
the central and eastern Sierra Nevada as well as in the White Mountains of California. Specific sites
chosen for analysis include three geographically distinct locations including: a mountain valley (Owens
Valley), three high-elevation mountaintop sites (Mt. Warren, Slide Mountain, White Mountain Peak), and
two forested sites (Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, Onion Creek Experimental Forest). Our overall
objectives were twofold: 1) to compare fine-scale temperature observations (maximum, minimum, and
mean) with the climate mapping system, PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent
Slopes Model), utilizing Geographic Information Systems; and 2) to examine how well mountaintop
temperature and wind observations correlate with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data.
Poster
SNOW AVALANCHE PATH ECOLOGY: EXAMPLES FROM THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS,
COLORADO
SIMONSON, SARA (1,4), STOHLGREN, THOMAS (1,2), LANDRY, CHRIS (3), AND FASSNACHT,
STEVEN (4)
(1) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523; (2) US
Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO 80526; (3) Center for Snow and
Avalanche Studies, Silverton, CO 81433 USA; (4) Earth Sciences Watershed Program, Geosciences,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523
35
We present results from an initial evaluation of landscape ecology approaches to characterize avalanche
paths based on patterns of plant species composition and evidence of disturbance. Combined with snow
system monitoring data and records of historical avalanche incidents, landscape patterns of plant
diversity can be used to quantify and map the frequency and magnitude of snow slide events. Below
treeline, forest vegetation can shelter slopes, slowing the redistribution of snow due to wind and shading
the snow surface from solar radiation. Intact forest vegetation can influence the formation of cohesive
slabs and potentially prevent the initiation of snow slides. However, many avalanches occur high above
treeline in steep alpine terrain. Once a snow slide is initiated, the mass of moving snow can mobilize
anything in its path. Near Silverton, Colorado, a series of snow storms in January of 2005 resulted in
many avalanche paths running full track at 30 and 100 year return frequency. Many avalanches cut fresh
trimlines, widening their tracks by uprooting, stripping, and breaking mature trees. Powerful avalanches
deposited massive piles of snow, rocks, and woody debris in their runout zones. We used cross-section
discs and cores of representative downed trees to detect dendro-ecological signals of past snow
avalanche disturbance, including variation in the relative width of annual growth rings, formation of
traumatic resin ducts, development of reaction wood in response to tilting, and impact scars from the
moving snow and associated wind blast. Our preliminary measurements of plant diversity and
disturbance along the elevation gradient of an avalanche path near Silverton indicate that avalanche
activity contributes to the high local plant species diversity, influences patterns of forest cover, and
provides opportunities for new seedling establishment.
Poster
DIFFERENTIAL EFFECTS OF ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION ON ASPEN LITTER DECOMPOSITION
IN RELATION TO PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY
SMITH, WILLIAM K. (1), STELTZER, HEIDI (1), TREE, ROGER (2), MATTHEW WALLENSTEIN (1),
GAO, WEI (1, 2), AND PARTON, WILLIAM J. (1)
(1)Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80521, (2) UV-B
Monitoring and Research Program, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, C), 80521
Altered ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion, changing cloud
conditions, and decreased snow cover may affect litter decomposition and thus the carbon balance of
western U.S. ecosystems. Litter decomposition rates vary across biomes, and patterns of decay indicate
UV-B radiation accelerates litter decay in environments where precipitation is infrequent. In these
environments, water availability constrains biotic activity, so that photodegradation by UV-B radiation
increases litter decay rates. We conducted a litter decomposition experiment using aspen (Populus
tremuloides) litter to determine if the effects of UV-B radiation on litter decomposition vary in relation to
precipitation frequency and biotic activity. Aspen was selected as the model species, because it is
economically important and has a wide-distribution that includes high elevations where UV-B radiation is
elevated. Precipitation frequency was manipulated by returning soil to 60% water holding capacity at 4-,
12- and 24-day intervals. Artificial UV-B irradiance was supplied by fluorescent UVB-313 lamps and
-2 -1
-2 -1
-2 -1
included control (0 kJm d ), ambient (7.8 kJm d ), and elevated (10.4 kJm d ) treatments determined
using biologically weighted clear-sky field measurements. The experiment also included a direct
manipulation of biological activity through sterilization. Our results show that UV-B radiation does not
consistently accelerate litter decomposition. Using Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) we show that the
combination of a negative UV-B effect and a positive effect of biotic activity best explained litter decay
rates observed in the 4-day water treatment (wr=0.68, r2=0.70) and a positive UV-B effect alone best
explained litter decay rates observed in the 24-day water treatment (wr=0.511, r2=0.59). In the 12-day
water treatment, there was equal support in the data for no treatment effects (wr=0.373, r2=0.43) and the
effect of biotic activity (wr=0.331, r2=0.43). UV-B radiation will likely increase in the western U.S. as
conditions become more arid and its effect on litter decomposition and the consequences for ecosystem
carbon losses will depend on patterns of precipitation.
Invited Talk
36
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN FOREST MANAGEMENT – A MANAGAMENT AGENCY
RESPONSE
SPITTLEHOUSE, DAVID L.
Research Branch, BC Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W9C2
Climate change will challenge the ability of forest management agencies to meet society’s needs. Climate
change will act in concert with global competition, changing consumer demands for forest products and
social values. Users of forest and range resources will have differing vulnerabilities to change. An
important component of adaptation will be balancing differing values. Recent increases in fire and insect
infestations in British Columbia and consideration of carbon as a commodity has highlighted the need for
all of the forestry community to become engaged. The Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative (FFEI) was
established by the British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range to develop a plan to adapt our forest
and range management framework to a changing climate. It has two desired outcomes: ecosystems
remain resilient to stress caused by climate change, human activity, and other agents of change; and
ecosystems continue to provide the services, products, and benefits society depends on. Initial objectives
are: to establish baseline information for forecasting and monitoring ecosystem changes; and to forecast
how a range of climate change scenarios might affect key species and ecological processes over time.
Adapting the forest to climate change includes revising species selection guidelines, facilitated migration
of species, and developing fire-smart landscapes. Adaptation of forest management techniques includes
changing rotation age, revising conservation objectives and developing forest policy to encourage
adaptation. However, society and the management agencies must also respond by changing
expectations on the use forest and range resources because management can only influence the timing
and direction of adaptation at selected locations. Although it will be a number of years before adaptive
actions will be implemented “on the ground, in the forest”, consultation, capacity building and vulnerability
assessments constitute the first steps in the adaptation process.
Poster
MULTI-PROXY STUDIES IN PALEOLIMNOLOGY – HOW MANY PROXIES IS ENOUGH?
STARRATT, SCOTT
U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025
The use of multiple proxies to evaluate environmental change is becoming increasingly common in
paleolimnology studies. The proxies utilized in a given study are controlled by the research questions that
need to be answered, as well as the characteristics of the site. A reliable chronology is essential to a
multi-proxy study. In late Quaternary and Holocene studies AMS 14C dating of plant material (needles,
seeds) can provide sub-centennial resolution. Recent sediments (last 200 years) can be dated using
210
Pb, 137Cs, or 241Am. In rare cases, a record of annual, and at times, seasonal variability, can be
obtained from varved sediments. In most cases, however, physical and biological processes yield a
record of variability that is integrated over a period of several years. In some instances, the sediments
may contain recycled material from other parts of the basin. Understanding the seasonal cycle of
biological and detrital sediment input and the temporal nature of the sediment record preserved are
critical in choosing the appropriate proxies.
Proxy data from two lakes in northern California are divided into physical (density, magnetic susceptibility,
grain size, loss-on-ignition, geochemistry, stable isotope) and biological (diatoms, pollen). The data from
the lakes are compared to the record of physical and biological proxies at Ocean Drilling Program Site
1019, located on the northern California margin. The results from Medicine Lake suggest that additional
proxies are needed to evaluate the effect that changes in the catchment basin such as variations in
sediment influx rates or lake level have on the composition of the diatom flora. At Swamp Lake, the
addition of carbon and nitrogen isotope data, identified the primary organic matter contributors, but did
little to explain the pattern of biogenic silica variation. The question of the minimum number of
calibrations sites necessary for adequate characterization of modern limnological conditions is also
addressed.
37
Talk
FIELD-BASED VEGETATION MONITORING THROUGH SPECTRAL TECHNOLOGIES: SUCCESSES
AND LIMITATIONS
STELTZER, HEIDI (1) AND CHONG, GENEVA (2)
(1) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory and (2) Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort
Collins, CO 80523-1499; (2) US Geological Survey Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center and Natural
Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Jackson, WY 83001-2353
New approaches to monitor vegetation are needed to detect and understand the effects of land use and
global environmental changes on ecosystem structure and function in western U.S. mountain regions.
Spectral technologies that measure the intensity of light reflected from the earth’s surface can provide
improved quantitative assessment of vegetation at many scales. These technologies, which are regularly
used for airborne and space-based assessments of vegetation (i.e. remote sensing), can also be used on
ground-based platforms (i.e. near-surface sensing). Although spectrometers, multi-band sensors, or
multi-spectral cameras have often been used on ground-based platforms to develop models for
interpreting remotely sensed data, near-surface sensing has less frequently been used to monitor
vegetation in field-based monitoring programs or experimental climate change studies. Yet, using
spectral technologies to collect closely sensed data could transform field-based vegetation monitoring.
Closely sensed data can be used to monitor plant physiology, phenology, community composition, and
ecosystem structure and function in response to land management and environmental change. These
technologies have the potential to improve data quality and reduce the cost of vegetation monitoring in
field-based studies. We will discuss successes and limitations of using near-surface sensing for
vegetation monitoring in our research. Examples we will discuss include the use of multi-spectral imagery
to structure a sampling plan in a spatially heterogeneous ecosystem, to monitor vegetation in alpine
tundra and in a semi-arid steppe ecosystem, and to characterize vegetation cover and soil carbon pools
in restored grasslands. Interdisciplinary collaborations are essential to further advance these
technologies and enable widespread use.
Talk
TAKING THE PULSE OF MOUNTAIN FORESTS: THE CORDILLERA FOREST DYNAMICS
NETWORK (CORFOR)
STEPHENSON, NATE (1), DUQUE, ALVARO (2), ALVAREZ, ESTEBAN (3), CARILLA, JULIETA (4),
DANIELS, LORI (5), GRAU, RICARDO (4), GREENWOOD, GREG (6), HARMON, MARK (7), ORREGO,
SERGIO (2), VAN MANTGEM, PHIL (1), VEBLEN, TOM (8)
(1) US Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, 47050 Generals Hwy #4, Three Rivers,
CA 93271, USA (2) Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Calle 59A
# 63-20, Medellín, Colombia, (3) Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. (ISA), Calle 12 sur No. 18-168, Medellín,
Colombia, (4) Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (UNT), Laboratorio de Investigaciones Ecológicas de
las Yungas (LIEY), cc 34 (4107) Yerba Buena, Tucumán, Argentina, (5) University of British Columbia,
Department of Geography, 217-1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z2, Canada, (6) Mountain
Research Initiative, University of Bern, Erlachstrasse 9A Trakt 3, 3012 Bern, Switzerland, (7) Oregon
State University, Department of Forest Science, 321 Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA, (8)
University of Colorado, Department of Geography, 110 Guggenheim, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Ongoing global changes may have far-reaching effects on forests, and hence on society. Additionally,
forests sequester the majority of the terrestrial biosphere’s carbon, making them potentially key
contributors of feedbacks to global climatic changes. However, even though networks of long-term forest
plots are powerful tools for detecting, understanding, and forecasting forest changes, broad-scale
international networks so far have been limited to tropical lowland forests. Thus, with the assistance of
the Mountain Research Initiative and as a working group of the larger America Cordillera Transect of
scientific research, we have established the Cordillera Forest Dynamics Network (CORFOR). CORFOR
38
is unique in maintaining hundreds of long-term forest monitoring plots across extraordinarily broad
latitudinal and elevational gradients – from the tropics through both the northern and southern temperate
zones (Canada to Argentina), and from near sea level to 3500 m. Further environmental variability is
added by east-west precipitation gradients crossing the Cordillera, broad gradients of topography and
soils, and a wide variety of land use and disturbance histories. CORFOR thus offers unique opportunities
to understand environmental controls of forest structure, composition, biodiversity, and dynamics, and
thus drivers of forest change. We present some of our findings so far, revealing strong environmental
controls of forest dynamics, and possible ongoing temperature-driven changes in forests.
Poster
ESTABLISHING GLORIA* LONG-TERM ALPINE MONITORING IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA
SWERHUN, KRISTINA (1), JAMIESON, GLEN (2), SMITH, DAN J. (1) AND TURNER, NANCY J. (3)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, B.C. V8N 3L1, (2) Fisheries and Oceans
Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, B.C. V9T 6N7, (3) School of Environmental Studies,
University of Victoria, Victoria, B.C. V8P 5C2
This research established long-term alpine monitoring in southwestern British Columbia by following the
protocol outlined in the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine environments (GLORIA). Sites
for long-term monitoring were established on the Mount Arrowsmith Massif on Vancouver Island
(Arrowsmith Biosphere Reserve) and in close proximity to Whistler Mountain (Garibaldi Provincial Park) in
the summer of 2006. The aim of the GLORIA project is to develop a long-term, world-wide database of
standardized observations of alpine biodiversity, vegetation patterns and mountain-top temperature. In
both the Arrowsmith and Whistler target regions, the most dominant species in terms of cover were
woody plants and included mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana), white mountain-heather ( Cassiope
mertensiana) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Thirty-nine vascular plant species were common to
both target regions, 36 species were inventoried only in the Arrowsmith region and 28 species were only
recorded in the Whistler region. No conclusive trends in species numbers were evident from baseline
data. With plans to monitor and resurvey at five- to ten-year intervals, the sites established in this project
document current plant species composition, and will allow assessment over the long term of changes in
biodiversity attributable to change in climate.
*Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (www.gloria.ac.at)
Poster
ECOTONES AND VEGETATION BANDS: 70 YEARS OF VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA
THORNE, JAMES (1), DOBROWSKI, SOLOMON (2), BOYNTON, RYAN (1), THRASHER, SARAH (1),
BJORKMAN, JACKIE (1), SAFFORD, HUGH (3)
(1) Department Environmental Science and Policy, UC Davis, Davis CA 95616, (2) Department of Forest
Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 95812, (3)
USFS, Vallejo, CA 94592
The Wieslander Vegetation Type (VTM) survey provides landcover and vegetation plot data from the
2
1930s for over 50,000 km of the central and northern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Comparison of the
historic data to modern landcover maps and plots permits assessment of vegetation change by area
occupied, by elevation of ecotones, by transition of vegetation types, and by estimates change in forest
structure. For map-based analyses, we standardized scales between historic and contemporary maps
with a 300m grid. For each grid cell we assigned a majority vegetation type in each time period. We
sampled historic temperature and precipitation by month to 40-year averages around 1934 and current
time and assigned estimated changes in climate to every cell. We also sampled topographic variables
and fire frequencies to the same grids. We used map-based changes in vegetation type area extent,
ecotone elevation and a transition matrix to identify changes that could be related to climate change.
39
We present upslope shifts in the lower edge ecotones for vegetation types dominated by Pinus
ponderosa, P. jeffreyi, Abies magnifica, Subalpine conifers and mixed hardwood conifers. Upper edge
Ecotone advancing shifts for Sierra Mixed Conifer and Montane hardwood conifers, and retracting shifts
for Ponderosa pine, are presented. We also present evidence of expansion of hardwoods in their current
elevational belt, an expansion consistent with expected future climate conditions. Many changes
measured through use of the historic vegetation maps and climate data that are consistent with future
expected climate conditions. We examined whether these changes could be corroborated with
measurements using vegetation plots from the two time periods. The plots from each time period were
used as samples of the landscape, rather than being revisited. Plots were used to examine elevation
distributions of species in each time, and to examine changes in basal area, in 4 size classes.
Talk
WIDESPREAD INCREASE OF TREE MORTALITY RATES IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
VAN MANTGEM, PHILLIP J. (1), STEPHENSON, NATHAN L. (1), BYRNE, JOHN C. (2), DANIELS, LORI
D. (3), FRANKLIN, JERRY F. (4), FULÉ, PETER Z. (5), HARMON, MARK E. (6), SMITH, JEREMY M. (7),
TAYLOR, ALAN H. (8), VEBLEN, THOMAS T. (7)
(1) USGS, Sequoia and Kings Canyon Field Station, 47050 Generals Highway, Three Rivers, CA 93271,
(2) Rocky Mountain Research Station, 1221 South Main Street, Moscow, ID 83843, (3) Department of
Geography, University of British Columbia, 217-1984 West Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T IZ2, (4)
College of Forest Resources, Box 352100, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, (5) School of
Forestry and Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Box 15018, Flagstaff AZ
86011, (6) Department of Forest Science, 210 Richardson Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
97331, (7) Department of Geography, Campus Box 260, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, (8)
Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802
Old growth forests are expected to be near demographic equilibrium, with generally equivalent
recruitment and mortality rates that remain constant through time. However, we present evidence that in
recent decades annual mortality rates have increased substantially and significantly (0.71% to 1.14%) in
old growth forests across the western United States. Our data consist of repeated censuses of >60,000
trees from 76 permanent plots (average starting year = 1984, average ending year = 2001) distributed
across major western US forested regions (Pacific Northwest coastal ranges, Cascades, Sierra Nevada,
northern Arizona, northern and central Rocky Mountains). Mortality rates not only increased in each of
these regions, but also within dominant taxonomic groups (Abies, Pinus, Pseudotsuga, Tsuga; with the
single exception of Calocedrus), and across elevational zones and tree size classes. Increasing mortality
is not likely due to increasing competition, as stand density and basal area significantly declined during
our observations. Increasing mortality rates are correlated with both increasing temperatures and
increasing climatic water deficits. While these correlations do not prove causation, they suggest that
recent warming trends may have contributed to a widespread response in old growth forests, potentially
leading to systematic changes in stand structure, habitat quality, fire hazard, and carbon storage.
Invited Talk
MANAGING RESOURCES IN AN ERA OF UNCERTAINTY
WELLING, LEIGH
Climate Change Coordinator, National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science
Rapid climate change presents significant threats to National Park resources and resource values. While
resource management decisions must be based on future expectations, the future under climate change
cannot be predicted with as much accuracy and precision as we would like. Climate change scenario
planning offers a tool for developing a science-based decision-making framework in the face of an
40
uncertain future. Scenario planning does not require precise future predictions, but explores a range of
predictions to allow us to begin thinking through what appropriate responses might be. By helping to
envision alternative futures, scenarios can be used as a tool to identify policies and actions that will lead
to various outcomes. Major benefits of this approach are (1) increased understanding of key
uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, and (3) improved
capacity for adaptive management. An overview of scenario planning will be presented along with case
study results from Joshua Tree National Park.
Poster
A RECORD OF LONG-TERM HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
WISE, ERIKA K
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and Department of Geography, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
85721
A multitude of activities and livelihoods depend on rivers systems that originate in the mountains of
western Wyoming. This area experiences a high degree of hydroclimatic variability due to physiographic,
meteorological, and teleconnection influences. Additionally, much of the West is in the midst of a multiyear drought that has placed a renewed sense of urgency on water availability issues. This study
presents a preliminary first dendrochronological streamflow reconstruction for the upper Snake River at
Jackson Dam. Tree-ring samples were collected from Pinus flexilis, Pinus Ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga
menziesii trees in Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana, allowing for a study of the climatic processes that
impact the watershed on time scales longer than those available from the instrumental record. Tree-ring
cores were dated to the calendar year through crossdating, and ring widths were measured. Correlation
and response function models were used to establish relationships between climatic variables and tree
growth, and a statistical model was created to calibrate and validate the reconstruction of annual
streamflow. Objectives of this project include helping place recent climatic events in the context of natural
climatic variability and providing water managers with a record of long-term natural variability to aid
planning for and mitigating high-flow and drought impacts.
Poster
INTERPRETING AND REFINING THE CLIMATE SIGNAL IN MILLENNIAL-LENGTH 5-NEEDLE PINE
CHRONOLOGIES
WOODHOUSE, CONNIE (1), GRAY, STEPHEN (2), HUGHES, MALCOLM (3), KIPFMUELLER, KURT
(4), PEDERSON, GREG (5), SALZER, MATTHEW (3), BROWN, PETER (6), AND LUKAS, JEFFREY (7)
(1) Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (2)
Wyoming State Climate Office, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071, (3) Laboratory of Tree-Ring
Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, (4) Department of Geography, University of
Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, (5) School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
85721, (6) Rocky Mountain Tree-Ring Research, Ft. Collins, CO 80526, (7) Institute of Arctic and Alpine
Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
In the western U.S., long-lived 5-needle pines (Pinus flexilis, P.albicaulis, P. balfouriana, P. aristata, and
P. longaeva) have great potential to provide high-resolution, multi-millennial length records of past
climate. These pines are widely distributed, grow at or near tree line, and in conjunction with their length
of record, may provide useful spatiotemporal estimates of temperature and moisture. However, the
relationship between growth and climate in these species is often complex and difficult to interpret. We
have undertaken a systematic survey of all available 5-needle pine chronologies in the western U.S. to
assess climate/growth response, and to develop a basis for understanding how these chronologies may
be most appropriately use in climate reconstructions. We are using a range of strategies to investigate
the nature of the climate signal in these trees and the best ways to isolate and extract the proxy climate
information. Investigations include spatial and trend analyses, wavelet decomposition, process modeling,
41
and comparisons of these chronologies with those known to have a robust climate signal. To date, a
common database has been generated, and a set of preliminary results has been generated. At a May
workshop, we synthesized results so far, and these results are presented here. The ultimate goal of this
two-year project is to produce results to guide future work, both in terms of the use these 5-needle pine
chronologies as proxies for climate data, and for identifying species and locations to be targeted for new
collections that would be useful for studying past climate.